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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22

Simulated Adhesive Response to Aging (CRADA 453 Final Report)

The goal of this project was to develop a suite of molecular models to investigate adhesive performance as a result of the presence of different levels of moisture. These different levels of moisture are accepted in the adhesives community to represent different states of aging. First, our team modeled the adhesive’s crosslinked structure. Next, we modeled adding water to the crosslinked structure and used high performance computing resources to simulate water diffusion through the bulk adhesive and possible sites for chain scission. Finally, we modeled the response of the simulated adhesive to tensile loads at various levels of moisture content. These simulations were validated by experimental characterization by the industry partner. We found that the Young’s modulus of the adhesive decreased by about 30% when the water content increased to 3 wt.%. Our simulations also identified the likely site where the polymer chain could break. Our integration of molecular level simulations and mechanical property predictions using high performance computing with experimental studies of a hydrated epoxy system has yielded fundamental insights that will help industry advance lightweight joining technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Separating Sensible and Latent Cooling with Electrically Charged Rotating Vortexes and Vapor Capturing Air Handler Technology

The dehumidification of air is a highly energy-intensive process, typically requiring vapor compression systems to cool the air below its dew point temperature. This project investigated air dehumidification achieved by electrostatic and dielectrophoresis forces in electrosprays and centrifugal principles in cyclone separators. As a practical implementation of these processes, Electrospray Vortical Flow eXchanger (EVFX) prototypes were designed, fabricated, and tested. Electrosprays were employed to energize water droplets, which then captured water vapor via dielectrophoresis. A cyclone separator was positioned downstream of the electrosprays. This combination increased the dehumidification efficiency and controlled the flow of the water vapor condensate removed from the air.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

SCALE 6.3.1 Radiation Source Terms and Shielding Analysis for a Postulated Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Accident Scenario

In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission non–light-water reactor fuel cycle demonstration project, SCALE 6.3.1 capabilities for radiation source term and shielding calculations are demonstrated for scenarios in the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) fuel cycle. A postulated accident scenario, which consists of a seismic event causing the refueling machine to fall and release a spent fuel assembly inside the containment building (CB), is analyzed in this paper. Radiation source terms were generated for a U/TRU-10Zr metal fuel assembly with a 16.5% initial transuranic waste content and a discharge burnup of approximately 95 GWd/tHM; source terms were also generated for a high-assay low-enriched uranium metal fuel assembly (U-10Zr) with a 16.5% initial enrichment and a discharge burnup of 149.74 GWd/tHM. These radiation source terms were then used to determine the dose rate inside the CB and near the outer surface of the CB for a range of spent fuel assembly cooling times. The dose rate produced by the analyzed SFR assemblies is similar to that produced by a typical pressurized water reactor assembly with a discharge burnup of 50 GWd/MTU. Ultimately, the validation of the source terms predicted for SFRs with SCALE will need to be demonstrated via the use of assay measurements.

Radulescu, Georgeta↗

Petrophysical and geomechanical properties of gas hydrate-bearing sediments recovered from Alaska North Slope 2018 Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well

Knowledge of petrophysical and geomechanical properties of gas hydrate-bearing sediments are essential for predicting reservoir response due to gas production from gas hydrate reservoirs. That information will be critical parameters for designing production well completion such as specification of depressurization pump, water storage tank, and mesh size of sand screen. In December 2018, Stratigraphic Test Well Hydrate-01 was drilled in the western part of the Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope as part of the technical planning effort for a future long-term production test by collaborative team of DOE/NETL, USGS, and MH21-S (Boswell et al., 2020, Collett et al., 2020, Okinaka et al., 2020). Data set of logging-while-drilling (LWD) were acquired (Haines et al., 2020, Suzuki et al., 2019) and core sampling depth was determined on-site.Side-wall pressure coring was conducted to recover gas hydrate-bearing sediments from two reservoir sections named Unit-B and Unit-D. A total of 34 cores were successfully recovered by 5 runs of a wire-line deployed pressure corer (CoreVault® System - Halliburton). Core analysis scheme of this project are shown in Figure 1. All cores were quenched in liquid nitrogen while at high pressure in the laboratory of Stratum Reservoir, LLC. at Anchorage (Figure 1, a)). And the cores were removed from the pressure corer autoclave with temperature support of dry ice and stored under liquid nitrogen at atmospheric pressure. 19 damaged cores were processed to index property measurements directly such as grain size, grain density. 4 of another 17 cores were depressurized and trimmed for making a plug to analyze petrophysical properties of host sediments. Unsteady-state permeability test was conducted to obtain relative water permeability to gas and core scale NMR T2 distribution measurement was performed for evaluating pore size distribution at Houston (Figure 1, b)). Remained high quality 13 cores were preserved with gas hydrate for advanced laboratory analysis. National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, as a part of the Japanese National Hydrate Research Program (MH21-S, funded by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry), received the samples at Sapporo, Japan for advanced core analysis. High-resolution X-ray CT was used to analyze the quality of the samples, which showed undisturbed lithological layers. Cores were lathed into cylindrical shape and distributed for multi property measurements (Figure 1, c)).<p>As a result, sediment from Unit-D is categorized as silty sand at ~37% porosity with ~80% gas hydrate saturation. An average hydration number n = 6.16 was measured by Raman spectroscopy. An average intrinsic permeability of ~400 mD and in situ effective permeability (with hydrate) on the order of ~10 mD. The Unit B recovered cores consisted of well sorted sand at ~40% porosity with ~95% gas hydrate saturation. An average intrinsic permeability of ~1 Darcy and in situ effective permeability on the order of ~30 mD was measured for the Unit B cores. There was a small permeability reduction due to porosity loss with increasing effective stress that simulated consolidation behavior along with depressurization in the highly permeable sandy sediment. The apparent minimum change in porosity and permeability may be caused by the low compressibility of quartz sand grains in the recovered cores. XRD and thermal conductivity analysis also suggested high quartz content. Triaxial compression tests established internal friction angles based on the Mohr-Coulomb's failure criterion, which are 40° for hydrate-bearing sediment and 29.8° for hydrate free sediment.</p>

Yoneda, Jun↗

Dynamic global vegetation models underestimate net CO 2 flux mean and inter-annual variability in dryland ecosystems

Despite their sparse vegetation, dryland regions exert a huge influence over global biogeochemical cycles because they cover more than 40% of the world surface (Schimel 2010 Science 327 418–9). It is thought that drylands dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and long-term trend in the global carbon (C) cycle (Poulter et al 2014 Nature 509 600–3, Ahlstrom et al 2015 Science 348 895–9, Zhang et al 2018 Glob. Change Biol. 24 3954–68). Projections of the global land C sink therefore rely on accurate representation of dryland C cycle processes; however, the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) used in future projections have rarely been evaluated against dryland C flux data. Here, we carried out an evaluation of 14 DGVMs (TRENDY v7) against net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 dryland flux sites in the southwestern US encompassing a range of ecosystem types (forests, shrub- and grasslands). We find that all the models underestimate both mean annual C uptake/release as well as the magnitude of NEE IAV, suggesting that improvements in representing dryland regions may improve global C cycle projections. Across all models, the sensitivity and timing of ecosystem C uptake to plant available moisture was at fault. Spring biases in gross primary production (GPP) dominate the underestimate of mean annual NEE, whereas models' lack of GPP response to water availability in both spring and summer monsoon are responsible for inability to capture NEE IAV. Errors in GPP moisture sensitivity at high elevation forested sites were more prominent during the spring, while errors at the low elevation shrub and grass-dominated sites were more important during the monsoon. We propose a range of hypotheses for why model GPP does not respond sufficiently to changing water availability that can serve as a guide for future dryland DGVM developments. Our analysis suggests that improvements in modeling C cycle processes across more than a quarter of the Earth's land surface could be achieved by addressing the moisture sensitivity of dryland C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing of Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors: Safety Classification and Performance Criteria for Structures, Systems, and Components

This report, “Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing of Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors: Safety Classification and Performance Criteria for Structures, Systems and Components,” represents a key element in the development of a framework for the efficient licensing of advanced non-Light Water Reactors (non-LWRs). It is the result of a Licensing Modernization Project (LMP) led by Southern Company and cost-shared by the United States Department of Energy (DOE).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing of Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors (Final Project Report)

Advanced (i.e., non-light-water) reactor technologies offer developers new opportunities to enhance the reliability, efficiency, and safety of nuclear power reactors through changes in fundamental design and operation. A variety of advanced design concepts are being developed that generally trend toward increased reliance on innovative, inherent, and passive safety features. Many of these features are substantially different from components now found in large light water reactors (LWRs) that dominate the commercial operating fleet. Similarly, non-light water reactor (non-LWR) suppliers are also pursuing market niches quite different from the regional baseload power generation sites typically associated with large LWR facilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Perovskite/Perovskite Tandem Photoelectrodes for Low-Cost Unassisted Photoelectrochemical Water Splitting

In this project, we aim to address the challenges of achieving efficient and cost-effective unassisted photoelectrochemical water splitting using perovskite/perovskite tandem photoelectrodes. We utilized the following unique approaches to advance our innovation. (1) We developed stable and efficient low-E g (1.2 – 1.4 eV) perovskites as the bottom electrodes. We demonstrated approaches to improve the photovoltaic performance and photothermal stability of low-E g Sn-Pb iodide perovskite solar cells. (2) We developed a low-temperature synthesis route to fabricate wide-E g (>1.8 eV) perovskite top electrodes. By combining theoretical and experimental investigation, we found methods to reduce the formation of defects and dislocations in the wide-E g mixed halide perovskites and suppress halide segregation. (3) We developed a robust metal oxide-based interconnecting layer to integrate two perovskite layers into tandem photoelectrodes. Our monolithically integrated tandem devices feature a high V OC of more than 2 V and a high J SC of more than 15 mA/cm 2 . We showed the new design of the tandem photoelectrodes that is critical to the stable operation of tandem photoelectrodes for unassisted PV/PEC water splitting. (4) We demonstrated a water-impermeable barrier of carbon paste/epoxy/metal foil composite, which can prevent photocorrosion and water ingress of perovskite active layers. This surface protection enabled the operation of perovskite photoelectrodes in water and significantly enhanced the long-term stability of our tandem devices. (5) We conducted standardized PEC characterization in collaboration with NREL and reported accurate determination of solar-to-hydrogen conversion efficiencies of perovskite/perovskite tandem photoelectrodes. At the end of the project, we demonstrated perovskite/perovskite tandem photoelectrodes with STH efficiencies of up to 18% and less than 20% efficiency loss after continuous operation for more than 500 hours in water. Our results demonstrate the potential to develop a low-cost, durable, and efficient water-splitting system that meets the DOE 2026 and 2031 cost targets for hydrogen production.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Validation of the Cloud_CCI (Cloud Climate Change Initiative) cloud products in the Arctic

The role of clouds in the Arctic radiation budget is not well understood. Ground-based and airborne measurements provide valuable data to test and improve our understanding. However, the ground-based measurements are intrinsically sparse, and the airborne observations are snapshots in time and space. Passive remote sensing measurements from satellite sensors offer high spatial coverage and an evolving time series, having lengths potentially of decades. However, detecting clouds by passive satellite remote sensing sensors is challenging over the Arctic because of the brightness of snow and ice in the ultraviolet and visible spectral regions and because of the small brightness temperature contrast to the surface. Consequently, the quality of the resulting cloud data products needs to be assessed quantitatively. In this study, we validate the cloud data products retrieved from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) post meridiem (PM) data from the polar-orbiting NOAA-19 satellite and compare them with those derived from the ground-based instruments during the sunlit months. The AVHRR cloud data products by the European Space Agency (ESA) Cloud Climate Change Initiative (Cloud_CCI) project uses the observations in the visible and IR bands to determine cloud properties. The ground-based measurements from four high-latitude sites have been selected for this investigation: Hyytiälä (61.84°N, 24.29°E), North Slope of Alaska (NSA; 71.32°N, 156.61°W), Ny-Ålesund (Ny-Å; 78.92°N, 11.93°E), and Summit (72.59°N, 38.42°W). The liquid water path (LWP) ground-based data are retrieved from microwave radiometers, while the cloud top height (CTH) has been determined from the integrated lidar–radar measurements. The quality of the satellite products, cloud mask and cloud optical depth (COD), has been assessed using data from NSA, whereas LWP and CTH have been investigated over Hyytiälä, NSA, Ny-Å, and Summit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TRACER CLAMPS2 MWR TROPoe Retrievals

These files contain 24 hour periods of retrieved thermodynamic profiles derived from observations collected by the CLAMPS2 Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) and microwave radiometer (MWR). The TROPoe algorithm is a python equivalent to the AERIoe algorithm (see Turner and Loehnert, 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019). These data were collected during the TRACER-CUBIC project. MWR only and combined AERI and MWR retrievals are available. During this deployment the AERI had high noise so AERI only retrievals are unavailable and the combined AERI and MWR retrievals should be used with extreme caution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TRACER CLAMPS2 AERI_MWR TROPoe Retrievals

These files contain 24 hour periods of retrieved thermodynamic profiles derived from observations collected by the CLAMPS2 Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) and microwave radiometer (MWR). The TROPoe algorithm is a python equivalent to the AERIoe algorithm (see Turner and Loehnert, 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019). These data were collected during the TRACER-CUBIC project. MWR only and combined AERI and MWR retrievals are available. During this deployment the AERI had high noise so AERI only retrievals are unavailable and the combined AERI and MWR retrievals should be used with extreme caution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Autonomous Infrared and Small (Wide) Angle X-Ray Scattering (IR-S(W)AXS) Capability

Thin water films are 2-D, nanoconfined layers that form on solid surfaces exposed to humid atmospheres—environments ubiquitous across catalysis, corrosion science, soil science, and subsurface geochemistry. At relative humidity (RH) values below saturation, these films are Å–nm thick and exhibit properties that differ sharply from bulk water, including disrupted H-bonding and impeded mass transport. Owing to their high surface-to-volume ratio, dissolution of the solid can rapidly drive strong supersaturation with respect to secondary phases. Reactivity in thin water films is highly sensitive to film thickness, and critically, thickness evolves during reaction because the hygroscopicity of the interfacial system changes as ions accumulate or diminish in the film and as reaction products transform. To accurately probe and control these dynamics, a capability is needed that can measure and automatically maintain a constant water-film thickness while simultaneously monitoring solid dissolution, nucleation, and growth. This project developed an autonomous Infrared/Small Angle X-ray Scattering-Wide Angle X-ray Scattering (IR/(W)SAXS) for investigating reactivity in thin water films on solid surfaces exposed to humidified gases. The capability consists of an IR spectrometer, a (W)SAXS instrument, and a mass flow controller system for generating variably humidified gas flows to a custom reaction cell. Progress on each of the major components of the capability are detailed below.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Prescreening-Based Subset Selection for Improving Predictions of Earth System Models With Application to Regional Prediction of Red Tide

We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, a toxic single celled protist. We present ensemble method for improving red tide prediction using the high resolution ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reanalysis data. The study results highlight the importance of prescreening-based subset selection with decision relevant metrics in identifying non-representative models, understanding their impact on ensemble prediction, and improving the ensemble prediction. These findings are pertinent to other regional environmental management applications and climate services. Additionally, our analysis follows the FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship such that data and analysis tools are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. As such, the interactive Colab notebooks developed for data analysis are annotated in the paper. This allows for efficient and transparent testing of the results’ sensitivity to different modeling assumptions. Moreover, this research serves as a starting point to build upon for red tide management, using the publicly available CMIP, Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and reanalysis data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Enhanced Light Outcoupling from OLEDs Fabricated on Novel Low-Cost Patterned Plastic Substrates of Varying Periodicity

OLEDs continue to make strides in display applications, but their commercial utilization in solid-state lighting (SSL) is lagging. An ongoing challenge, in particular for manufacturing, is the need for enhanced efficiency and hence the necessity to increase in an inexpensive approach the extraction of the light generated inside the OLED into the forward (viewing) hemisphere. In conventional OLEDs fabricated on a transparent flat anode coated on glass, the external quantum efficiency (EQE) is only ~20%. About 50% of the light is lost to internal waveguiding in the high refractive index (RI) organic + ITO anode layers and to surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) at the organic/metal cathode interface. Another ~30% of the light is externally waveguided in the substrate to its edges. While extraction of the externally waveguided light is commonly addressed by adding a microlens array (MLA) or a scattering layer at the substrate’s air-side, light outcoupling increases by only ~1.6-1.7x (vs up to 2.5x in improving from ~20% to ~50%). The use of a hemispherical lens or an index matching fluid (IMF) at the substrate/photodetector (PD) interface increases the outcoupling by at least 2x; these approaches however, are not viable industrially, and even a MLA is sometimes undesirable due to its non-planar, scattering structure. In multi-stack tandem OLEDs, where the metal cathode is far from the emitting zone(s), the impact of photons loss to SPPs decreases. Our project addressed the ~50% loss to the internally waveguided light and SPPs. We evaluated OLEDs fabricated on patterned or planarized plastic substrates manufactured in a cost-effective approach compatible with a roll-to-roll (R2R) process. The OLEDs were either (i) patterned to various degrees depending on the pitch a and height or depth h of the pattern features or (ii) planar, with a pattern buried under a flat high RI planarization layer. We demonstrated that the outcoupling from green patterned OLEDs reaches ~50% by mitigating plasmon–related loss and internal waveguiding, even without the addition of a MLA, a hemispherical lens, or IMF. Simulations conducted in parallel with the experimental effort demonstrated how diffraction by conformally corrugated OLEDs increases the outcoupling to >60%. Structures with varying pitch values were also simulated indicating that combining domains of varying pitch could increase outcoupling to 55-60%. Experimentally, we additionally assessed the role a and h in determining not only the OLED efficiencies, but also their structural properties, i.e., the uniformity and conformality throughout the OLED stack. As planar OLEDs are preferred over corrugated devices, we studied different patterns in plastic substrates that were planarized by a high RI formulation. Planar green OLEDs on such structures showed enhanced efficiencies with EQEs larger than 60% with the addition of an IMF (to extract the substrate mode) at the substrate/Si PD interface. White OLEDs showed EQEs of 45.5%. Plastic substrates are currently less attractive than glass substrates due to drawbacks such as permeability to water vapor and oxygen, and in some cases thermal instability. Plastic substrates however, are flexible and easy to handle unlike thin flexible glass, and once transparent thin barrier films are available, they will become more attractive; they are already of interest in medical applications. Importantly, as it is easy to generate various patterns in different plastic materials, they provide excellent means for assessing and optimizing enhancing extracting structures. Such structures can also be transferred to glass substrates with some process modifications. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the project lie in the patterning of the extracting plastic substrates in an approach that is scalable to R2R manufacturing. R2R processes are of drastically lower-cost than batch or single-unit fabrication. The patterned plastic can be a part of an integrated substrate either plastic or glass, which includes also a MLA or a planar layer with embedded scattering particles, as well as a conductive metal mesh/electrode design. SSL is environmentally-friendly and as OLED SSL becomes more efficient it will reduce electricity consumption, and hence lighting cost, as well as produce less expensive attractive lighting fixtures. Our university-industry collaboration is hence of major benefit to the public as it demonstrates the feasibility of manufacturing optimized extracting substrates for highly efficient OLEDs for SSL in a future R2R process, which would drastically reduce the manufacturing cost and increase production in the USA. Moreover, newly developed methods by our team allow low-cost roll manufactured substrates to be transferred to flexible or rigid glass substrates, which solves the plastic substrate barrier issues, and when combined with device encapsulation will increase the OLEDs’ environmental stability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A comprehensive techno-eco-assessment of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery projects using a machine-learning assisted workflow

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) projects not only extract residual oil but also sequestrate CO 2 in the depleted reservoirs. Here, this study develops a machine-learning-based workflow to co-optimize the hydrocarbon recovery, CO 2 sequestration volume and project net present value (NPV) simultaneously. Considering the trade-off relationships among the objective functions, support vector regression with Gaussian kernel (Gaussian- SVR) proxies are coupled with multi-objective particle swarm optimization (PSO) protocol and generate Pareto optimal solutions. Taking advantage of the high computational efficacy of the proxy model, economic uncertainties introduced by tax credits, capital costs and oil price are investigated by this study. The results indicate that the tax incentive policy (Section 45Q) plays a vital role in enhancing the economic returns of CO 2 -EOR projects, especially under the depression of crude oil market. The proposed workflow has been successfully implemented to optimize a water alternative CO 2 (CO 2 -WAG) injection project in a depleted oil sand in the US. The optimization results yield an incremental oil production of 15.8 MM STB and 1.37 MM metric tons of CO 2 storage in a 20-year development strategy, with the highest project NPV to be 205.6 MM US dollars.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Subsurface heatwaves in lakes

Abstract Lake heatwaves (extreme hot water events) can substantially disrupt aquatic ecosystems. Although surface heatwaves are well studied, their vertical structures within lakes remain largely unexplored. Here we analyse the characteristics of subsurface lake heatwaves (extreme hot events occurring below the surface) using a spatiotemporal modelling framework. Our findings reveal that subsurface heatwaves are frequent, often longer lasting but less intense than surface events. Deep-water heatwaves (bottom heatwaves) have increased in frequency (7.2 days decade −1 ), duration (2.1 days decade −1 ) and intensity (0.2 °C days decade −1 ) over the past 40 years. Moreover, vertically compounding heatwaves, where extreme heat occurs simultaneously at the surface and bottom, have risen by 3.3 days decade −1 . By the end of the century, changes in heatwave patterns, particularly under high emissions, are projected to intensify. These findings highlight the need for subsurface monitoring to fully understand and predict the ecological impacts of lake heatwaves.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗