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DOE OSTI2025

Structural origin of disorder-induced ion conduction in NaFePO 4 cathode materials

Diffusion in NaFePO 4 can be enhanced through amorphization. Based on computations using DFT and machine learning potentials, we ascribe this phenomenon to the formation of less constrained Na-ion environments upon disordering. Most modern battery technologies depend on solid-state crystalline cathode materials. However, some of these materials are constrained by the low ionic conductivity of their most stable phases. An example of this is maricite (NaFePO 4 ). Interestingly, experiments have shown that maricite can improve its rate capability through disordering (amorphization). However, experimental characterization of amorphous cathode materials remains a major challenge, hindering a clear understanding of the structural origin of the disorder-induced improvement in sodium-ion mobility. To address this, we here employ molecular dynamics simulations by first training a machine learning potential for NaFePO 4 based on the atomic cluster expansion approach and a batch active learning potential parameterization scheme. This potential is then applied to explore the structural and dynamical properties of NaFePO 4 glasses as cathode materials. Specifically, we investigate the effect of glass structure on sodium-ion diffusion, revealing the relative influences of short-range and medium-range order features. We find significant heterogeneity in sodium-ion diffusivity in the glass, with fast-conducting ions residing in less constrained atomic environments with fewer P and Fe neighbors. These more mobile ions are also surrounded by larger ring-type structures. Overall, the results and developed approach present promising avenues for developing high-performance glassy cathodes for next-generation batteries.

Christensen, Rasmus↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phase-field modeling of orientation-dependent crack growth in ductile single crystals with anisotropic elasticity

Crack growth in ductile single crystals (DuSCs) is orientation dependent due to the anisotropies of crystal plasticity and elastic tensor. This study develops a phase-field model incorporating both crystal plasticity and crack growth and proposes a general method to decompose the elastic energy into compressive and tensile parts to prevent crack growth under compression in the phase-field description. The phase-field model, in combination with three Euler angles, is employed to simulate orientation-dependent crack growth in DuSCs. The contributions from crystal plasticity and anisotropic elasticity are compared, and the former is found to dominate in the anisotropy of crack growth in copper single crystals. Furthermore, the simulation results demonstrate that crystal orientation strongly affects the heterogeneous distribution of plastic strain and the interaction between plastic strain and crack growth. High-throughput phase-field simulations are performed with exhaustive crystal orientations, and the results are explained based on the anisotropy of the Taylor factor.

Computational Solid Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO

Abstract Streambed grain sizes control river hydro‐biogeochemical (HBGC) processes and functions. However, measuring their quantities, distributions, and uncertainties is challenging due to the diversity and heterogeneity of natural streams. This work presents a photo‐driven, artificial intelligence (AI)‐enabled, and theory‐based workflow for extracting the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed grain sizes from photos. Specifically, we first trained You Only Look Once, an object detection AI, using 11,977 grain labels from 36 photos collected from nine different stream environments. We demonstrated its accuracy with a coefficient of determination of 0.98, a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98, and a mean absolute relative error of 6.65% in predicting the median grain size of 20 ground‐truth photos representing nine typical stream environments. The AI is then used to extract the grain size distributions and determine their characteristic grain sizes, including the 10th, 50th, 60th, and 84th percentiles, for 1,999 photos taken at 66 sites within a watershed in the Northwest US. The results indicate that the 10th, median, 60th, and 84th percentiles of the grain sizes follow log‐normal distributions, with most likely values of 2.49, 6.62, 7.68, and 10.78 cm, respectively. The average uncertainties associated with these values are 9.70%, 7.33%, 9.27%, and 11.11%, respectively. These data allow for the computation of the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed HBGC parameters, including Manning's coefficient, Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor, top layer interstitial velocity magnitude, and nitrate uptake velocity. Additionally, major sources of uncertainty in grain sizes and their impact on HBGC parameters are examined.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-Entropy Metal-Organic Frameworks (HEMOFs): A New Frontier in Materials Design for CO 2 Utilization

High-entropy materials (HEMs) emerged as promising candidates for a diverse array of chemical transformations, including CO 2 utilization. However, traditional HEMs catalysts are nonporous, limiting their activity to surface sites. Designing HEMs with intrinsic porosity can open the door toward enhanced reactivity while maintaining the many benefits of high configurational entropy. Here, in this study, a synergistic experimental, analytical, and theoretical approach to design the first high-entropy metal-organic frameworks (HEMOFs) derived from polynuclear metal clusters is implemented, a novel class of porous HEMs that is highly active for CO 2 fixation under mild conditions and short reaction times, outperforming existing heterogeneous catalysts. HEMOFs with up to 15 distinct metals are synthesized (the highest number of metals ever incorporated into a single MOF) and, for the first time, homogenous metal mixing within individual clusters is directly observed via high-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy. Importantly, density functional theory studies provide unprecedented insight into the electronic structures of HEMOFs, demonstrating that the density of states in heterometallic clusters is highly sensitive to metal composition. This work dramatically advances HEMOF materials design, paving the way for further exploration of HEMs and offers new avenues for the development of multifunctional materials with tailored properties for a wide range of applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Controlled Spalling of 4H Silicon Carbide with Investigated Spin Coherence for Quantum Engineering Integration

We detail scientific and engineering advances which enable the controlled spalling and layer transfer of single crystal 4H silicon carbide (4H-SiC) from bulk substrates. 4HSiC’s properties, including high thermal conductivity and a wide bandgap, make it an ideal semiconductor for power electronics. Moreover, 4H-SiC is an excellent host of solid-state atomic defect qubits for quantum computing and quantum networking. Because 4H-SiC substrates are expensive (due to long growth times and limited yield), techniques for removal and transfer of bulk-quality films are desirable for substrate reuse and integration of the separated films. In this work, we utilize updated approaches for stressor layer thickness control and spalling crack initiation to demonstrate controlled spalling of 4H-SiC, the highest fracture toughness crystal spalled to date. We achieve coherent spin control of neutral divacancy (VV 0 ) qubit ensembles and measure a quasi-bulk spin T 2 of 79.7 μs in the spalled films.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Super-Resolved Single-Molecule Tracking Studies of Rhodamine B Accumulation on Fresh and Aged Polyethylene Terephthalate

It is well-known that toxic organic micropollutants (OMs) accumulate on the surfaces of microplastics. However, much remains to be learned about the exact molecular level mechanisms of OM accumulation and how these evolve as the plastics age. In this work, super-resolved single-molecule tracking (SMT) is used for the first time to investigate the accumulation of Rhodamine B (RhB) dye on fresh and artificially aged polyethylene terephthalate (PET) surfaces. PET thin films serve as models for microplastics, while RhB serves as a proxy for the OMs they accumulate. Artificial aging of the films is accomplished by exposing them in a UV-ozone chamber. Water contact angle, spectroscopic ellipsometry, and carbonyl index measurements reveal a gradual decrease in film hydrophobicity, thickness, and carbonyl content with age. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) data reveal an increase in surface roughness and confirm that the films remain largely intact and continuous across the aging times explored. In SMT experiments, wide-field fluorescence videos acquired from the water/PET interface under 7.5 pM RhB reveal both mobile and immobile dye molecules. Measurements of the frame-to-frame displacements of the dye show that diffusion occurs by a desorption-mediated mechanism and that the diffusion rate varies with PET film age. The surface density of mobile dye molecules decreases with increasing PET age, while the population of immobile molecules becomes relatively larger, suggesting an age-dependent transformation of the mechanism(s) by which the dye is accumulated. SMT data reveal that both mobile and immobile molecules repeatedly adsorb over the same surface sites, consistent with the emergence of nanoscale PET surface heterogeneity also revealed by AFM. Estimates of the adsorption coefficients are obtained using a nearest-neighbor analysis, giving values from 9.9 × 10 5 to 2.1 × 10 6 M –1 for immobile molecules and from 1.8 × 10 5 to 2.5 × 10 5 M –1 for mobile molecules on fresh and 5 min aged PET, respectively. Here, anomalous age-dependent variations in the velocity of molecular motion on the PET surface and in the population of immobile molecules are shown to correlate with changes in the strength of RhB adsorption.

Adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating Technical Expertise and Capability Evolution in Research Communities Using Dynamic Graph Transformers

The ability to anticipate global technical expertise and capability evolution trends is essential for national and global security, especially in safety-critical domains such as nuclear nonproliferation (NN) and rapidly emerging fields like artificial intelligence (AI). Here, in this work, we extend traditional statistical relational learning approaches (e.g., link prediction in collaboration networks) and formulate a problem of anticipating technical expertise and capability evolution using dynamic heterogeneous graph representations. We develop novel capabilities to forecast collaboration patterns, authorship behavior, and technical capability evolution at different granularities (e.g., scientist and institution levels) in two distinct research fields. We implement a dynamic graph transformer (DGT) neural architecture, which pushes the state-of-the-art graph neural network models by: 1) forecasting heterogeneous (rather than homogeneous) nodes and edges; and 2) relying on both discrete- and continuous-time inputs. We demonstrate that our DGT models predict collaboration, partnership, and expertise patterns with 0.26, 0.73, and 0.53 mean reciprocal rank values for AI and 0.48, 0.93, and 0.22 for NN domains. DGT model performance exceeds the best-performing static graph baseline models by 30%–80% across AI and NN domains. Our findings demonstrate that DGT models boost inductive task performance when previously unseen nodes appear in the test data for the domains with emerging collaboration patterns (e.g., AI). Specifically, models accurately predict which established scientists will collaborate with early career scientists and vice versa in the AI domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Algebraic Multigrid with Filtering: An Efficient Preconditioner for Interior Point Methods in Large-Scale Contact Mechanics Optimization

Large-scale contact mechanics simulations are crucial in many engineering fields such as structural design and manufacturing. In the frictionless case, contact can be modeled by minimizing an energy functional; however, these problems are often nonlinear, nonconvex, and increasingly difficult to solve as mesh resolution increases. In this work, we employ a Newton-based interior-point (IP) filter line-search method, an effective approach for large-scale constrained optimization. While this method converges rapidly, each iteration requires solving a large saddle-point linear system that becomes ill-conditioned as the optimization process converges, largely due to IP treatment of the contact constraints. Such ill-conditioning can hinder solver scalability and increase iteration counts with mesh refinement. Here, to address this, we introduce a novel preconditioner, algebraic multigrid with filtering (AMGF), tailored to the Schur complement of the saddle-point system. Building on the classical AMG solver, commonly used for elasticity, we augment it with a specialized subspace correction that filters near null space components introduced by contact interface constraints. Through theoretical analysis and numerical experiments on a range of linear and nonlinear contact problems, we demonstrate that the proposed solver achieves mesh independent convergence and maintains robustness against the ill-conditioning that notoriously plagues IP methods. These results indicate that AMGF makes contact mechanics simulations more tractable and broadens the applicability of Newton-based IP methods in challenging engineering scenarios. More broadly, AMGF is well suited for problems, optimization or otherwise, where solver performance is limited by a low-dimensional subspace, such as those arising from localized constraints, interface conditions, or model heterogeneities. This makes the method widely applicable beyond contact mechanics and constrained optimization.

Mathematics and Computing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrating and Characterizing HPC Task Runtime Systems for hybrid AI-HPC workloads

Scientific workflows increasingly involve both HPC and machine-learning tasks, combining MPI-based simulations, training, and inference in a single execution. Launchers such as Slurm’s srun constrain concurrency and throughput, making them unsuitable for dynamic and heterogeneous workloads. We present a performance study of RADICAL-Pilot (RP) integrated with Flux and Dragon, two complementary runtime systems that enable hierarchical resource management and high-throughput function execution. Using synthetic and production-scale workloads on Frontier, we characterize the task execution properties of RP across runtime configurations. RP+Flux sustains up to 930 tasks/s, and RP+Flux+Dragon exceeds 1,500 tasks/s with over 99.6% utilization. In contrast, srun peaks at 152 tasks/s and degrades with scale, with utilization below 50%. For IMPECCABLE.v2 drug discovery campaign, RP+Flux reduces makespan by 30–60% relative to srun/Slurm and increases throughput more than four times on up to 1,024. These results demonstrate hybrid runtime integration in RP as a scalable approach for hybrid AI-HPC workloads.

HPC-AI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chemical Imaging of Atmospheric Biomass Burning Particles from North American Wildfires

The effects of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) on radiative forcing and cloud formation depend on chemical composition and the internal structures of individual particles within smoke plumes. To improve our understanding of the chemical and physical properties of BBA emitted at different times of the day and their evolution during atmospheric aging, we conducted a study as a part of the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field campaign. Particle samples were collected onboard a research aircraft from smoke plumes from a wildfire in eastern Oregon during late afternoon and nighttime flights on August 28, 2019. A time-resolved aerosol collector was used to collect samples on substrates for offline spectromicroscopic imaging to investigate the single-particle characteristics of BBA particles. Approximately 20,400 individual particles from 10 selected samples were analyzed using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis, revealing their elemental composition, morphology, and viscosity. Elemental microanalysis indicated that aged potassium is likely found in the form of K 2 SO 4 , KNO 3 , and possible K-organic salts. Further chemical speciation and carbon bonding mapping within individual particles were conducted using synchrotron-based scanning transmission X-ray microscopy (STXM) coupled with near edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy. Real-time, water-soluble light absorption measurements were acquired using a particle-into-liquid sampler instrument coupled to a liquid waveguide capillary cell and total organic analyzer. In the late afternoon samples, 65% of the total particle number population consisted entirely of organic components, compared to 46% in the nighttime particles. These differences were attributed to discrepancies in composition at the time of emission and to the daytime condensation and accumulation of photochemically formed secondary organic material on existing BBA particles, a process that halts at night. Microscopy images indicated that particle viscosity was lower in the nighttime particles (<10 1 Pa·s), likely due to increased relative humidity and a higher contribution from hygroscopic inorganic components. The chemical heterogeneity of individual particles was quantified using STXM-derived mixing state parameters. The nature of carbon bonding within individual particles was inferred from the extent of carbon sp 2 hybridization derived from NEXAFS spectra. Average percentages of sp 2 hybridization range between 40% and 60%, with no noticeable differences between late afternoon and nighttime flights. These findings were compared with the online optical properties of both late afternoon and nighttime smoke plumes, providing valuable insights into the complex relationship between chemical composition and optical properties of BBA particles at different times of the day.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Proton, Electron, and Hydrogen-Atom Transfer Thermodynamics of the Metal–Organic Framework, Ti-MIL-125, Are Intrinsically Correlated to the Structural Disorder

Interfacial charge transfer reactions involving protons and/or electrons are fundamental to heterogeneous catalysis and many other reactions relevant to energy, chemical, and biological sectors. Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) with redox-active metal-oxo nodes have emerged as candidate materials to examine these reactions with near-atomic-level precision, given their crystalline nature. Here, we employed a colloidally stable, Ti-based MOF, Ti-MIL-125, with different crystal sizes to examine catalytically relevant charge transfer thermodynamics. The Ti 8 (μ 2 -O) 8 (μ 2 -OH) 4 nodes structurally mimic TiO 2 , which has shown some PCET reactivity toward reactions of H 2 , O 2 , and others. In this report, we have demonstrated that a change in crystal size induces different amounts of structural disorder to the Ti-oxo node, further changing the thermodynamics of proton/electron/hydrogen-atom transfer reactions. Using electrochemical open-circuit potential (E OCP ) measurements, we have determined that all crystallites undergo a 1H + /1e – redox reaction, which, given the stoichiometry, can be considered as a net H atom transfer (HAT) reaction. The thermodynamics of this HAT reaction, the Ti 3+ O–H bond dissociation free energy (BDFE), was dependent on the crystal size of the MOF, as the decrease in crystal size induced more structural disorder. Our computational calculations have indicated that this difference in BDFE is due to a local change in the geometry of Ti cations, rather than the commonly invoked defects, such as the “missing-linker” defect sites. Individual proton/electron transfer (PT/ET) thermodynamics were also highly dependent on the crystal sizes. These were probed using pK a or band gaps (E g ), respectively. These findings suggest that, particularly when MOFs are nanosized with a large amount of structural disorder, they should no longer be considered “true” single-site catalysts; this is an implicit, but widespread assumption within the MOF-based catalysis field. Implications of these findings will be contrasted with structurally similar metal oxides like TiO 2 and other redox-active MOFs.

Bond dissociation free energy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data transfers for full core heterogeneous reactor high- fidelity multiphysics studies

Multiphysics simulations for nuclear reactor analysis are usually performed by resorting to operator splitting and fixed point iterations between single-physics solvers. This enables the separate solution of each physics, such as neutronics, fuel performance, and thermal hydraulics, on meshes tailored to the requirements of the respective numerical discretizations of the equations. As the equations are coupled, several fields must be transferred between single-physics solves. Projecting fields between meshes while preserving order of accuracy, conservation properties, and mapping non-overlapping geometries is a complex endeavor. This conference paper will present the transfers as implemented in MOOSE, which can handle arbitrary meshes, arbitrary mappings, conservation of integral quantities, and are made to scale with distributed simulations on both ends of the transfers. Their adequacy for advanced nuclear reactor multiphysics coupling is shown through examples and numerical studies.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of structure and coverage on the reactivity of realistic heterogeneous catalysts

Adsorbates often cover the surfaces of catalysts densely as they carry out reactions, dynamically altering their structure and reactivity. Understanding adsorbate-induced phenomena and harnessing them in our broader quest for improved catalysts is a substantial challenge that is only beginning to be addressed. Here, in this work, we chart a path toward a deeper understanding of such phenomena by focusing on emerging in silico modeling methodologies, which will increasingly incorporate machine learning techniques. We first examine how adsorption on catalyst surfaces can lead to local and even global structural changes spanning entire nanoparticles, and how this affects their reactivity. We then evaluate current efforts and the remaining challenges in developing robust and predictive simulations for modeling such behavior. Last, we provide our perspectives in four critical areas—integration of artificial intelligence, building robust catalysis informatics infrastructure, synergism with experimental characterization, and adaptive modeling frameworks—that we believe can help surmount the remaining challenges in rationally designing catalysts in light of these complex phenomena.

catalytic mechanisms↗

DOE OSTI2026

Superlattice reflection signatures of the insulator–metal transition in V 3 O 5 thin films

Nanoelectronic systems that are inspired by the brain are increasingly looking to insulator–metal transition (IMT) materials as they can mimic the response characteristics of neurons to temperature changes so that these can be used in robotic and computational applications. V 3 O 5 has an insulator–metal transition at ∼430 or ∼80 K higher than VO 2 and provides a unique high-temperature opportunity for these types of applications. Here, in this work, we track the structural evolution of V 3 O 5 thin films across the IMT through conventional selected-area electron diffraction (SAED) and four-dimensional scanning TEM (4D-STEM), correlated with temperature-dependent resistance measurements. SAED patterns show reversible evidence of superlattice reflections associated with the IMT—present below T IMT and absent above it—consistent with the accompanying drop in resistance. At room temperature, nanobeam electron diffraction patterns further reveal three local configurations: (i) type I regions with clean patterns lacking superlattice reflections and spot splitting; (ii) type II regions exhibiting rows of superlattice reflections and split spots indicative of crystallographic variants; and (iii) type III regions with negligible superlattice reflections but larger spot splitting suggestive of overlapping domains of insulating and conducting phases likely driven by local lattice distortions. Upon heating, the superlattice reflections disappear between 413 and 453 K, concurrent with the resistance drop at T IMT , consistent with the emergence of a conducting phase. The overall diffraction geometry remains essentially unchanged up to 573 K, implying that relative domain orientations persist through the transition. These observations reveal nanoscale structural heterogeneity in V 3 O 5 thin films across the IMT and inform operation in regimes where mixed-phase textures are expected. A plausible indexing framework rationalizing the observed geometries is presented in the Discussion section, alongside its limitations and alternative interpretations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Condition-Based Maintenance of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Power Plant using Machine Learning and Statistical Tools

Canada Deuterium Uranium pressurized-heavy-water reactors (PHWR) are a type of nuclear power plant that generate clean and reliable energy. The scope of this work is to automate data analysis methodologies to inform a condition-based maintenance strategy of a circulating water system (CWS) of a PHWR. The multiunit CWS provides a continuous supply of water to cool steam condensers, even during transient scenarios, thereby improving the thermal efficiency. This work aims to develop a machine learning (ML) based approach to detect anomalies in heterogeneous data of a CWS in a PHWR to help inform a predictive maintenance strategy. The heterogeneous data include textual and numeric time series data for a PHWR. Natural-language-processing (NLP)-based models are used to analyze textual data contained in work orders and operator logs and an event-timeseries correlation detection method is applied to assist anomalies diagnoses for CWS. An ML model Robust Linear Model (RLM) is also used to remove the seasonal variations in the system variable distributions based on distributions of environmental variables. A machine learning model, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), trained on both original data and data without any seasonal variations will then be used to detect if an anomaly exists. Thus, by moving to an automated methodology to detect, classify, and forecast anomalies, the maintenance strategy would be based on component condition instead of a time-based schedule.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-fidelity Pebble Bed Reactor Depletion Based on Pebble Tracking Transport in Griffin

The pebble tracking transport (PTT) method is a high-fidelity, heterogeneous deterministic transport technique for pebble bed reactor analysis. It discretizes the broad-group neutron transport equation in space and angle with the discontinuous finite element and the discrete ordinates method, and utilizes various solving techniques, including mesh sweeping and diffusion acceleration, to provide pebble- wise reaction rates. This work presents the extension of the PTT method to enable fuel depletion capability in the Griffin code. We discuss the implementation details of the PTT-based high-fidelity depletion where isotope inventory of all individual pebbles is tracked through pre-determined pebble flow paths in the core. The implementation is verified with a generic pebble bed reactor model. Some preliminary equilibrium core results are included. Future works are also discussed.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A ModEx Framework for Watershed Subsurface Investigation With Limited Geophysical Data Using Machine Learning and Hydrologic Modeling

Abstract Subsurface heterogeneity influences watershed hydrology strongly but remains difficult to characterize at catchment scales with sparse and costly field data. Geophysical surveys such as electromagnetic induction (EMI) provide local spatial subsurface images yet scaling them to watershed scales and converting EMI‐derived resistivity into hydraulic properties remains a challenge. We present a Model–Experiment (ModEx) framework that integrates limited EMI data with machine learning (ML) and hydrologic modeling to improve process representation and guide field investigations. Sparse EMI surveys were scaled to the catchment scale using a Random Forest model, and the resulting resistivity fields were combined with nearby borehole constraints to parameterize a hydrologic model. The EMI‐informed hydrological simulations improved predictions of streamflow sustained by subsurface flow and shallow saturation patterns. By combining EMI data and ML with hydrologic modeling, the ModEx framework guides future subsurface surveys, providing a transferable and efficient strategy for data–model integration across diverse watersheds. Plain Language Summary Mapping the underground network of soil and rock that controls water is essential for predicting floods and droughts, but seeing underground is difficult and expensive. We cannot drill everywhere, so scientists use geophysical tools to scan broad areas. There are two key challenges: these geophysical scans are often sparse across the whole watershed, and the geophysical data is hard to translate into water‐related properties. We used artificial intelligence to solve these problems. We taught a computer to find patterns linking the limited geophysical data to the land surface properties. This allowed it to fill in the gaps and create a complete, useful subsurface map for the entire watershed. This new map improves hydrologic simulations, leading to more accurate predictions of water movement in the watershed. It also helps scientists build better models with less data and generates a priority map showing where to measure next, making future investigations more efficient. Key Points Limited EMI scaled with ML improves catchment‐scale subsurface parameterization for hydrologic models The framework integrates hydrologic modeling with limited geophysical data to support subsurface investigation design ModEx framework offers a transferable data–model integration strategy that quantifies and reduces uncertainty guiding watershed studies

Chen, Hang↗