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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Heat and mass transfer in porous media phase separation at temperatures below the lambda-point of He-4

Newtonian fluid motion, coupled to heat transfer via latent heat of phase transition, is well known from numerous studies of condensation and boiling. Considerably less knowledge is available for vapor-liquid phase separation in the absence of gravity effect on the transport phenomena. The present studies are focused on heat and mass transfer associated with vapor-liquid phase separation required for long-term storage of the cryogen liquid He II in space vessels. Though space conditions are the dominant mode of interest in advanced equipment, e.g. IR telescopes, the systems may be operated in principle during terrestrial conditions. The latter are considered in the present work. It emphasizes the linear regime including an extrapolation based on variable thermophysical properties. Data taken with a phase separation approach show departures from the linear regime prediction. They agree with a transport equation proposed for the nonlinear, turbulent regime.

Yuan, S. W. K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

An observational search for CO2 ice clouds on Mars

CO2 ice clouds were first directly identified on Mars by the Mariner 6 and 7 infrared spectrometer limb scans. These observations provided support for early theoretical modeling efforts of CO2 condensation. Mariner 9 IRIS temperature profiles of north polar hood clouds were interpreted as indicating that these clouds were composed of H2O ice at lower latitudes and CO2 ice at higher latitudes. The role of CO2 condensation on Mars has recently received increased attention because (1) Kasting's model results indicated that CO2 cloud condensation limits the magnitude of the proposed early Mars CO2/H2O greenhouse, and (2) Pollack el al.'s GCM results indicated that the formation of CO2 ice clouds is favorable at all polar latitudes during the fall and winter seasons. These latter authors have shown that CO2 clouds play an important role in the polar energy balance, as the amount of CO2 contained in the polar caps is constrained by a balance between latent heat release, heat advected from lower latitudes, and thermal emission to space. The polar hood clouds reduce the amount of CO2 condensation on the polar caps because they reduce the net emission to space. There have been many extensive laboratory spectroscopic studies of H2O and CO2 ices and frosts. In this study, we use results from these and other sources to search for the occurrence of diagnostic CO2 (and H2O) ice and/or frost absorption features in ground based near-infrared imaging spectroscopic data of Mars. Our primary goals are (1) to try to confirm the previous direct observations of CO2 clouds on Mars; (2) to determine the spatial extent, temporal variability, and composition (H2O/CO2 ratio) of any clouds detected; and (3) through radiative transfer modeling, to try to determine the mean particle size and optical depth of polar hood clouds, thus, assessing their role in the polar heat budget.

Bell, James F., III↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-31179-DND

This presentation will brief the GEWEX Radiation Panel on the progress and results of the GEWEX SRB project during the last year toward production and assessment of the Release 4.0 data set. First, an update is presented regarding SRB Release 4.0 "Integrated Product" that produces consistent with GEWEX projects estimating land and ocean latent and sensible heat fluxes. Changes from the Release 3/3.1 data products to Release 4 are reviewed both for key inputs (such as the ISCCP HXS, the nn-HIRS, Land and Sea surface temperatures) and key algorithm changes. Differences between the old and new input properties are assessed and flux sensitivities to those inputs are summarized. Sample radiative flux data products are presented and compared against the previous version for span of the production run, currently from 1998 through 2012. These fluxes are also compared to surface measurements (i.e., BSRN) and CERES (Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System) data products both in terms of bulk statistics and also time series variability. Lastly, the plans for continued processing, archival, assessment and research and will be presented to the panel for discussion and feedback.

Paul W Stackhouse, Jr↗
NASA NTRS2019

Overview of the New Version 3 NASA Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) Automatic Precipitation Detection Algorithm

Precipitation modifies atmospheric column thermodynamics through the process of evaporation and serves as a proxy for latent heat modulation. For this reason, a correct precipitation parameterization (especially for low-intensity precipitation) within global scale models is crucial. In addition to improving our modeling of the hydrological cycle, this will reduce the associated uncertainty of global climate models in correctly forecasting future scenarios, and will enable the application of mitigation strategies. In this manuscript we present a proof of concept algorithm to automatically detect precipitation from lidar measurements obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Micropulse lidar network (MPLNET). The algorithm, once tested and validated against other remote sensing instruments, will be operationally implemented into the network to deliver a near real time (latency <1.5 h) rain masking variable that will be publicly available on MPLNET website as part of the new Version 3 data products. The methodology, based on an image processing technique, detects only light precipitation events (defined by intensity and duration) such as light rain, drizzle, and virga. During heavy rain events, the lidar signal is completely extinguished after a few meters in the precipitation or it is unusable because of water accumulated on the receiver optics. Results from the algorithm, in addition to filling a gap in light rain, drizzle, and virga detection by radars, are of particular interest for the scientific community as they help to fully characterize the aerosol cycle, from emission to deposition, as precipitation is a crucial meteorological phenomenon accelerating atmospheric aerosol removal through the scavenging effect. Algorithm results will also help the understanding of long term aerosol–cloud interactions, exploiting the multi-year database from several MPLNET permanent observational sites across the globe. The algorithm is also applicable to other lidar and/or ceilometer network infrastructures in the framework of the Global Aerosol Watch (GAW) aerosol lidar observation network (GALION).

Simone Lolli↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Efficient Dimensionality Reduction and Surrogate Modeling of High-Dimensional Stress Fields

Tensor datatypes representing field variables like stress, displacement, velocity, etc., have increasingly become a common occurrence in data-driven modeling and analysis of simulations. Numerous methods [such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs)] exist to address the meta-modeling of field data from simulations. As the complexity of the simulation increases, so does the cost of acquisition, leading to limited data scenarios. Modeling of tensor datatypes under limited data scenarios remains a hindrance for engineering applications. Here, in this article, we introduce a direct image-to-image modeling framework of convolutional autoencoders enhanced by information bottleneck loss function to tackle the tensor data types with limited data. The information bottleneck method penalizes the nuisance information in the latent space while maximizing relevant information making it robust for limited data scenarios. The entire neural network framework is further combined with robust hyperparameter optimization. We perform numerical studies to compare the predictive performance of the proposed method with a dimensionality reduction-based surrogate modeling framework on a representative linear elastic ellipsoidal void problem with uniaxial loading. The data structure focuses on the low-data regime (fewer than 100 data points) and includes the parameterized geometry of the ellipsoidal void as the input and the predicted stress field as the output. The results of the numerical studies show that the information bottleneck approach yields improved overall accuracy and more precise prediction of the extremes of the stress field. Additionally, an in-depth analysis is carried out to elucidate the information compression behavior of the proposed framework.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban weather modeling using WRF: linking physical assumptions, code implementation, and observational needs

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes urban schemes that simulate the influence of urban surfaces on the atmosphere using parameterizations for flux, and radiative exchanges. Three core schemes – the Bulk urban parameterization, Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), and Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (MLUCM) – represent increasing levels of complexity. Although the parameterizations within these urban schemes are described in the literature, their specific implementation remains poorly documented, thus slowing down model development efforts. This manuscript provides a roadmap to the three urban schemes in WRF version 4.5.2, presenting equations using the same symbols as in the model code, along with references to code lines, and including graphics and explanations that connect the code to its physical foundations. Our thorough review of the urban parameterizations implemented in WRF version 4.5.2 highlighted a handful of parameters that may introduce discontinuities in simulations: (i) in the SLUCM, a 1 mm h −1 rain rate threshold is employed to switch between two minimum moisture availability parameterizations, thus impacting latent heat flux calculations; (ii) in the SLUCM a threshold is used to partition shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components; (iii) in all three urban schemes, the bulk Richardson number is employed to select the similarity function, which influences the vertical distribution of heat and momentum. We also identified a highly simplified treatment of the radiative balance on roof surfaces. The implications of these simplifications can be assessed through targeted observations across relevant conditions, including varying precipitation rates, cloud cover, and transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, the widespread application of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in these urban schemes warrants model evaluation under highly stable and unstable conditions and in heterogeneous urban settings with variable land cover and building heights on scales finer than model resolution. To address these challenges, we offer guidance on observational strategies, emphasizing the need for multi-parametric measurements to capture potential compensating biases and multi-height measurements that align with the levels where quantities are diagnostic and prognosed in the model (i.e., the lowest atmospheric level of the WRF model). Finally, our inspection of the code revealed implementation bugs that have now been corrected in WRF versions 4.6.0 and 4.6.1. Sensitivity tests over the Atlanta urban area show that these corrections affect surface temperatures, underscoring the importance of performing rigorous documentation and verification of the implementation of parameterizations in model code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

The sensitivity of latent heat flux to the air humidity approximations used in ocean circulation models

In deriving the surface latent heat flux with the bulk formula for the thermal forcing of some ocean circulation models, two approximations are commonly made to bypass the use of atmospheric humidity in the formula. The first assumes a constant relative humidity, and the second supposes that the sea-air humidity difference varies linearly with the saturation humidity at sea surface temperature. Using climatological fields derived from the Marine Deck and long time series from ocean weather stations, the errors introduced by these two assumptions are examined. It is shown that the errors reach above 100 W/sq m over western boundary currents and 50 W/sq m over the tropical ocean. The two approximations also introduce erroneous seasonal and spatial variabilities with magnitudes over 50 percent of the observed variabilities.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS1992

Surface energy fluxes on four slope sites during FIFE 1988

Four slopes (facing north, south, east, and west) in the Konza Prairie Research Natural Area were selected to study the effect of topography on surface energy balance and other micrometeorological variables. Energy fluxes, air temperature, and vapor pressure were measured on the slopes throughout the 1988 growing season. Net radiation was highest on the south facing slope and lowest on the north facing slope, and the difference was more than 150 W/sq m (20-30 percent) at solar noon. For daily averages the difference was about 25 W/sq m (15 percent) early in the season and increased to about 60 W/sq m (30-50 percent) in September. Soil heat fluxes were similar for all the slopes. The absolute values of sensible heat flux were consistently lower on the north facing slope compared with other slopes. The south facing slope had the greatest day-to-day fluctuation in latent heat flux as a result of the interaction of net radiation, soil moisture, and green leaf area. Differences were found in the partitioning of the available energy among the slopes, and the north facing slope had a higher percentage of energy dissipated into latent heat flux. The north facing slope had higher air temperatures during the day and higher vapor pressures both during the day and at night when the wind was from the south.

Nie, D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of the Variable Pressure Growth Chamber using the CASE/A simulation package

A computer simulation of the Variable Pressure Growth Chamber (VPGC), located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, has been developed using the Computer Aided Systems Engineering and Analysis (CASE/A) package. The model has been used to perform several analyses of the VPGC. The analyses consisted of a study of the effects of a human metabolic load on the VPGC and a study of two new configurations for the temperature and humidity control (THC) subsystem in the VPGC. The objective of the human load analysis was to study the effects of a human metabolic load on the air revitalization and THC subsystems. This included the effects on the quantity of carbon dioxide injected and oxygen removed from the chamber and the effects of the additional sensible and latent heat loads. The objective of the configuration analysis was to compare the two new THC configurations against the current THC configuration to determine which had the best performance.

Mcfadden, Carl D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Risk of Crew Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response

Determining the effect of space travel on the human immune system has proven to be extremely challenging. Limited opportunities for in-flight studies, varying mission durations, technical and logistical obstacles, small subject numbers, and a broad range of potential assays have contributed to this problem. Additionally, the inherent complexity of the immune system, with its vast array of cell populations, sub-populations, diverse regulatory molecules, and broad interactions with other physiological systems, makes determining precise variables to measure very difficult. There is also the challenge of determining the clinical significance of any observed immune alterations. Will such a change lead to disease, or is it a transient subclinical observation related to short-term stress? The effect of this problem may be observed by scanning publications associated with immunity and spaceflight, which began to appear during the 1970s. Although individually they are each valid studies, the comprehensive literature to date suffers from widely varying sampling methods and assay techniques, low subject counts, and sometimes a disparate focus on narrow aspects of immunity. The most clinically relevant data are derived from in-flight human studies, which have demonstrated altered cell-mediated immunity and reactivation of latent herpes viruses. Much more data are available from post-flight testing of humans, with clear evidence of altered cytokine production patterns, altered leukocyte distribution, continued latent viral reactivation, and evidence of dramatically altered virus-specific immunity. It is unknown if post-flight assessments relate to the in-flight condition or are a response to landing stress and readaptation. In-flight culture of cells has clearly demonstrated that immune cells are gravity-sensitive and display altered functional characteristics. It is unknown if these data are related to in vivo immune cell function or are an artifact of microgravity culture. Ground analog testing of humans and animals, as well as microgravity-analog cell culture, has demonstrated utility. However, in all cases, it is not known with certainty if these data would reflect similar testing during space travel. Given their ready availability, ground analogs may be extremely useful for assay development and the evaluation of potential countermeasures. In general, the evidence base suffers from widely disparate studies on small numbers of subjects that do not directly correlate well with each other or spaceflight itself. Also lacking are investigations of the effect of gender on adaption to spaceflight. This results in significant knowledge 'gaps' that must be filled by future studies to completely determine any clinical risk related to immunity for human exploration-class space missions. These gaps include a significant lack of in-flight data, particularly during long-duration space missions. The International Space Station represents an excellent science platform with which to address this knowledge gap. Other knowledge gaps include lack of a single validated ground analog for the phenomenon and a lack of flight-compatible laboratory equipment capable of monitoring astronauts (for either clinical or research purposes). However, enough significant data exist, as described in this manuscript, to warrant addressing this phenomenon during the utilization phase of the ISS. A recent Space Shuttle investigation has confirmed the 31 in-flight nature of immune dysregulation, demonstrating that it is not merely a post-flight phenomenon. Several current studies are ongoing onboard the ISS that should thoroughly characterize the phenomenon. NASA recognizes that if spaceflight-associated immune dysregulation persists during exploration flights in conjunction with other dangers, such as high-energy radiation, the result may be a significant clinical risk. This emphasizes the need for a continued integrated comprehensive approach to determining the effect of prolonged spaceflight, separated from transient launch and landing stresses, on human immunity. After such studies, the phenomenon will be understood, and, hopefully, a monitoring strategy will have been developed that could be used to monitor the effectiveness of countermeasure

Crucian, Brian↗
NASA NTRS1994

Impact of land-surface moisture variability on local shallow convective cumulus and precipitation in large-scale models

Numerical experiments using state-of-the-art high-resolution mesoscale cloud model showed that land-surface moisture significantly affects the timing of onset of clouds and the intensity and distribution of precipitation. In general, landscape discontinuity enhances shallow convective precipitation. Two mechanisms that are strongly modulated by land-surface moisture-namely, random turbulent thermal cells and organized sea-breeze-like mesoscale circulations-also determine the horizontal distribution of maximum precipitation. However, interactions between shallow cumulus and land-surface moisture are highly nonlinear and complicated by different factors, such as atmospheric thermodynamic structure and large-scale background wind. This analysis also showed that land-surface moisture discontinuities seem to play a more important role in a relatively dry atmsophere, and that the strongest precipitation is produced by a wavelength of land-surface forcing equivalent to the local Rossby radius of deformation. A general trend between the maximum precipitation and the normalized maximum latent heat flux was identified. In general, large values of mesoscale latent heat flux imply strongly developed mesoscale circulations and intense cloud activity, accompanied by large surface latent heat fluxes that transport more water vapor into the atmosphere.

Chen, Fei↗
NASA NTRS1977

Atmospheric energetics in regions of intense convective activity

Synoptic-scale budgets of kinetic and total potential energy are computed using 3- and 6-h data at nine times from NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE IV). Two intense squall lines occurred during the period. Energy budgets for areas that enclose regions of intense convection are shown to have systematic changes that relate to the life cycles of the convection. Some of the synoptic-scale energy processes associated with the convection are found to be larger than those observed in the vicinity of mature cyclones. Volumes enclosing intense convection are found to have large values of cross-contour conversion of potential to kinetic energy and large horizontal export of kinetic energy. Although small net vertical transport of kinetic energy is observed, values at individual layers indicate large upward transport. Transfer of kinetic energy from grid to subgrid scales of motion occurs in the volumes. Latent heat release is large in the middle and upper troposphere and is thought to be the cause of the observed cyclic changes in the budget terms. Total potential energy is found to be imported horizontally in the lower half of the atmosphere, transported aloft, and then exported horizontally. Although local changes of kinetic energy and total potential energy are small, interaction between volumes enclosing convection with surrounding larger volumes is quite large.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Regional-Scale Assessment of Satellite Derived Precipitable Water Vapor Across The Amazon Basin

Atmospheric water vapor is widely recognized as a key climate variable, linking an assortment of poorly understood and complex processes. It is a major element of the hydrological cycle and provides a mechanism for energy exchange among many of the Earth system components. Reducing uncertainty in our current knowledge of water vapor and its role in the climate system requires accurate measurement, improved modeling techniques, and long-term prediction. Satellites have the potential to satisfy these criteria, as well as provide high resolution measurements that are not available from conventional sources. The focus of this paper is to examine the temporal and mesoscale variations of satellite derived precipitable water vapor (PW) across the Amazon Basin. This region is pivotal in the functioning of the global climate system through its abundant release of latent heat associated with heavy precipitation events. In addition, anthropogenic deforestation and biomass burning activities in recent decades are altering the conditions of the atmosphere, especially in the planetary boundary layer. A physical split-window (PSW) algorithm estimates PW using images from the GOES satellites along with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data that provides the first guess information. Retrievals are made at a three-hourly time step during daylight hours in the Amazon Basin and surrounding areas for the months of June and October in 1988 (dry year) and 1995 (wet year). Spatially continuous fields are generated 5 times daily at 12Z, 15Z, 18Z, 21Z, and 00Z. These fields are then averaged to create monthly and 3 hourly monthly grids. Overall, the PSW estimates PW reasonable well in the Amazon with MAE ranging from 3.0 - 9.0 mm and MAE/observed mean around 20% in comparison to radiosonde observations. The distribution of PW generally mimics that of precipitation. Maximum values (42 - 52 mm) are located in the Northwest whereas minimum values (18 - 27 mm) are found along Brazil's East coast. Aside from the East coast, PW has a stronger north-south gradient than that of rainfall. As for the temporal variation of PW, June (1988 and 1995) experiences a peak about 1400 local time, corresponding to a maximum in air temperature. In contrast, October (1988 and 1995) experiences a maximum early in the day, 1100 local time, with a gradual decrease toward nighttime.

DeLiberty, Tracy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Opinion: A critical evaluation of the evidence for aerosol invigoration of deep convection

Deep convective updraft invigoration via indirect effects of increased aerosol number concentration on cloud microphysics is frequently cited as a driver of correlations between aerosol and deep convection properties. Here, we critically evaluate the theoretical, modeling, and observational evidence for warm- and cold-phase invigoration pathways. Though warm-phase invigoration is plausible and theoretically supported via lowering of the supersaturation with increased cloud droplet concentration in polluted conditions, the significance of this effect depends on substantial supersaturation changes in real-world convective clouds that have not been observed. Much of the theoretical support for cold-phase invigoration depends on unrealistic assumptions of instantaneous freezing and unloading of condensate in growing, isolated updrafts. When applying more realistic assumptions, impacts on buoyancy from enhanced latent heating via fusion in polluted conditions are largely canceled by greater condensate loading. Many foundational observational studies supporting invigoration have several fundamental methodological flaws that render their findings incorrect or highly questionable. Thus, much of the evidence for invigoration has come from numerical modeling, but different models and setups have produced a vast range of results. Furthermore, modeled aerosol impacts on deep convection are rarely tested for robustness, and microphysical biases relative to observations persist, rendering many results unreliable for application to the real world. Without clear theoretical, modeling, or observational support, and given that enervation rather than invigoration may occur for some deep convective regimes and environments, it is entirely possible that the overall impact of cold-phase invigoration is negligible. Substantial mesoscale variability of dominant thermodynamic controls on convective updraft strength coupled with substantial updraft and aerosol variability in any given event are poorly quantified by observations and present further challenges to isolating aerosol effects. Observational isolation and quantification of convective invigoration by aerosols is also complicated by limitations of available cloud condensation nuclei and updraft speed proxies, aerosol correlations with meteorological conditions, and cloud impacts on aerosols. Furthermore, many cloud processes, such as entrainment and condensate fallout, modulate updraft strength and aerosol–cloud interactions, varying with cloud life cycle and organization, but these processes remain poorly characterized. Considering these challenges, recommendations for future observational and modeling research related to aerosol invigoration of deep convection are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Groundwater regulates interannual variations in evapotranspiration in a riparian semiarid ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems are an important component of Earth’s carbon, water, and energy budgets. Changes in hydroclimatic conditions can significantly alter land surface fluxes in these ecosystems. In regions with groundwater-river water exchange, land surface fluxes are strongly modulated by groundwater table fluctuations in response to river stage variations; however, interactions between fluxes and groundwater remain poorly understood in drylands. Here, we use eddy covariance data collected in paired upland and riparian semiarid ecosystems during two years with contrasting river flow conditions to examine interactions among river stage conditions, water table dynamics, meteorological drivers, and ecosystem fluxes. Elevated groundwater availability resulting from groundwater-surface water exchange at the riparian site enhanced the latent heat flux (LE, the energy form of evapotranspiration), which was sustained longer in the growing season during both years. At the upland site, mean LE during the dry season differed by less than 2% between the two years. In contrast, at the riparian site contrasting river flow conditions resulted in a 41% difference in peak monthly LE between the two years. The two-year mean LE in the summer at the riparian site was twice that at the upland site. Carbon uptake (NEP) and LE were well correlated at the upland site during both years, but at the riparian site enhanced summertime LE during the high river flow year did not correspond t enhanced NEP. Our results demonstrate that enhanced groundwater availability modulated by river stage variability is a critical driver of land surface fluxes in semiarid riparian ecosystems.

Missik, Justine E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

GCM simulations of intraseasonal variability in the Pacific/North American region

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of low-frequency variability with time scales of 20 to 70 days are analyzed for the Pacific sector during boreal winter. The GCM's leading mode in the upper-tropospheric zonal wind is associated with fluctuations of the East Asian jet; this mode resembles, in both structure and amplitude, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern found in the observations on these time scales. In both the model and observations, the PNA anomaly is characterized by: (1) a linear balance in the upper-tropospheric vorticity budget with no significant Rossby wave source in the tropics, (2) a barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the time mean Pacific jet, and (3) a north/south displacement of the Pacific storm track. In the GCM, the latter is associated with synoptic eddy heat flux and latent heat anomalies that appear to contribute to a strong lower-tropospheric source of wave activity over the North Pacific. This is in contrast to the observations, which show only a weak source of wave activity in this region.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
DOE OSTI2025

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗
NASA NTRS2008

ENSO/PDO-Like Variability of Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes Over the Satellite Era

Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying the nature of climate feedback processes. A strong warm / cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late 1990's with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 % /decade. Associated with ENSO and PDO-like tropical SST changes are surface freshwater and radiative fluxes which have important implications for heat and energy transport variations. In this study we examine how surface fluxes attending interannual to decadal SST fluctuations, e.g. precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE/CERES, SRB) are coupled. Using these data we analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry static energy and latent energy components. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations. Strong signatures ofMSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these fluxes and transports are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of tropical heat balance during episodes of warm or cold tropical SST.

Robertson, F. R.↗