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At least 397 records · Page 22

Variance and Predictability of Precipitation at Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

A series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations, spanning a total of several thousand years, is used to assess the impact of land-surface and ocean boundary conditions on the seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability of precipitation in a coupled modeling system. In the first half of the analysis, which focuses on precipitation variance, we show that the contributions of ocean, atmosphere, and land processes to this variance can be characterized, to first order, with a simple linear model. This allows a clean separation of the contributions, from which we find: (1) land and ocean processes have essentially different domains of influence, i.e., the amplification of precipitation variance by land-atmosphere feedback is most important outside of the regions (mainly in the tropics) that are most affected by sea surface temperatures; and (2) the strength of land-atmosphere feedback in a given region is largely controlled by the relative availability of energy and water there. In the second half of the analysis, the potential for seasonal-to-interannual predictability of precipitation is quantified under the assumption that all relevant surface boundary conditions (in the ocean and on land) are known perfectly into the future. We find that the chaotic nature of the atmospheric circulation imposes fundamental limits on predictability in many extratropical regions. Associated with this result is an indication that soil moisture initialization or assimilation in a seasonal-to-interannual forecasting system would be beneficial mainly in transition zones between dry and humid regions.

Koster, Randal D.↗

The dynamic fission instability and the origin of the Moon

A theory for the formation of the Moon which involves the dynamic fission of a rapidly rotating protoplanet, which might then result in the formation of the Earth and the Moon is discussed. The fission hypothesis was originally based on analytic, linearized models of the growth of asymmetry in homogenous bodies. The fully nonlinear evolution of the dynamic instability in inviscid, compressible bodies was calculated by numerical techniques. It was found that the dynamic instability degenerates into the ejection of a ring of matter with a substantial fraction of the mass, leaving behind a central body with most of the mass. The linearized analytical approach and the numerical approach were used to show that dynamic fission probably does not occur in rocky protoplanets. The numerical calculations are performed with a fully three dimensional hydrodynamical code, which allows the nonlinear, time evolution of the instability to be followed. Sequences of uniformly rotating equilibria were constructed and are used as the initial models for the fission calculations. An initially imposed asymmetry consisting of a 10% binary perturbation in the density was found to disappear on the rotational period time scale. No dynamic instability occurred. This result are verified by including the velocity dissipation terms in the linearized analysis of the stability of a Maclaurin spheroid: the dynamic instability disappears when the simulated viscous dissipation terms are included. It is concluded that any rocky body, even with considerable partial melt or a molten core, should be stable to dynamic fission; any rotational instability that occurs can only result in equatorial mass loss.

Boss, A. P.↗

An experimental study of nonlinear dynamic system identification

A technique based on the Minimum Model Error optimal estimation approach is employed for robust identification of a nonlinear dynamic system. A simple harmonic oscillator with quadratic position feedback was simulated on an analog computer. With the aid of analog measurements and an assumed linear model, the Minimum Model Error Algorithm accurately identifies the quadratic nonlinearity. The tests demonstrate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the nonlinear system model and with respect to measurement record length, regardless of initial conditions.

Stry, Greselda I.↗

Multi-Convertor Configurable Simulator for Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems

This paper presents the multi-convertor configurable simulator (MCCS) that can emulate piston/displacer dynamics and power outputs of various types of free-piston Stirling convertors developed at NASA GRC, including Technical Demonstration Convertor (TDC), Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), Flexure Isotope Stirling Convertor (FISC), Sunpower Robust Stirling Convertor (SRSC), and P2A. The MCCS can emulate up to four convertors, instead of two convertors in state-of-the-art Stirling simulators, and the maximum power output for each convertor is 1kW. Furthermore, hardware and software changes required to switch between convertors are minimized for easy conversion. A hardware-in-loop (HIL) system is used to easily switch between convertors by updating linearized modeling parameters in software. Also, switched-mode AC power supplies are used to generate wide ranges of voltage and current to emulate different types of Stirling convertors without replacing AC power supplies. Finally, the inductors emulating the linear alternator, which is the only hardware change needed for conversion, are modularized in alternator boxes to enable easy replacement of the inductors. These two features—easy conversion and capability of emulating up to four 1kW-convertors—will enable the validation tests of multi-convertor controller (MCC) concepts that are being developed by APL, the Dynamic Radioisotope Power System (DRPS) generator, and other controller developments for current and future DRPS flight projects. Finally, the MCCS is configured to demonstrate emulation of four FISCs and the outputs of the MCCS are compared with experimental data from the actual FISC.

Free-Piston Stirling Convertor Controller↗

Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate models in the low-noise regime

Abstract Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, this loss ignores model form error, or misspecification, meaning parameter uncertainties are significantly underestimated and vanish in the large data limit. As misspecification is the main source of uncertainty for surrogate models of low-noise calculations, such as those arising in atomistic simulation, predictive uncertainties are systematically underestimated. We analyze the true generalization error of misspecified, near-deterministic surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show that posterior parameter distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergence in the generalization error and design a compatible ansatz which incurs minimal overhead for linear models. The approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to thousand-dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Our efficient misspecification-aware scheme gives accurate prediction and bounding of test errors in terms of parameter uncertainties, allowing this important source of uncertainty to be incorporated in multi-scale computational workflows.

Swinburne, Thomas D. (ORCID:0000000232554257)↗

Radio frequency interference effect on PN code sequence lock detector

The authors find the probabilities of detection and false alarm of the pseudonoise (PN) sequence code lock detector when strong radio frequency interference (RFI) hits the communications link. Both a linear model and a soft-limiter nonlinear model for a transponder receiver are considered. In addition, both continuous wave (CW) RFI and pulse RFI are analyzed, and a discussion is included of how strong CW RFI can knock out the PN code lock detector in a linear or a soft-limiter transponder. As an example, the Space Station Freedom forward S-band PN system is evaluated. It is shown that a soft-limiter transponder can protect the PN code lock detector against a typical pulse RFI, but it can degrade the PN code lock detector performance more than a linear transponder if CW RFI hits the link.

Kwon, Hyuck M.↗

Data Mining Methods Applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance Data: A Comparison to Standard Statistical Methods

In a previous study, multiple regression techniques were applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance-derived data to develop parsimonious model(s) for fuel consumption on the Boeing 757 airplane. The present study examined several data mining algorithms, including neural networks, on the fuel consumption problem and compared them to the multiple regression results obtained earlier. Using regression methods, parsimonious models were obtained that explained approximately 85% of the variation in fuel flow. In general data mining methods were more effective in predicting fuel consumption. Classification and Regression Tree methods reported correlation coefficients of .91 to .92, and General Linear Models and Multilayer Perceptron neural networks reported correlation coefficients of about .99. These data mining models show great promise for use in further examining large FOQA databases for operational and safety improvements.

Stolzer, Alan J.↗

Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling and Controls Development for Supersonic Propulsion System Research

This paper covers the propulsion system component modeling and controls development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic simulation for an inlet and engine that can be used for an overall vehicle (APSE) model. The focus here is on developing a methodology for the propulsion model integration, which allows for controls design that prevents inlet instabilities and minimizes the thrust oscillation experienced by the vehicle. Limiting thrust oscillations will be critical to avoid exciting vehicle aeroelastic modes. Model development includes both inlet normal shock position control and engine rotor speed control for a potential supersonic commercial transport. A loop shaping control design process is used that has previously been developed for the engine and verified on linear models, while a simpler approach is used for the inlet control design. Verification of the modeling approach is conducted by simulating a two-dimensional bifurcated inlet and a representative J-85 jet engine previously used in a NASA supersonics project. Preliminary results are presented for the current supersonics project concept variable cycle turbofan engine design.

Connolly, Joseph W.↗

MINE: maximally informative next experiment—toward a new GWAS experimental design and methodology

Abstract The computational methodology of Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS) currently has several limitations: (i) the number of observations (rows) on a quantitative trait tends to be smaller than the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (columns) in the design matrix; (ii) each SNP is usually modeled separately, failing to acknowledge interaction between each other (ie epistasis); (iii) there is implicit linkage disequilibrium (LD) between neighboring SNPs due to their linkage. To overcome these issues, we developed a tool that uses ensemble methods to fit mixed linear models to GWAS data, and these ensemble methods include the development of a new experimental design approach in GWAS, which uses the resultant models and data to select the next informative experiment over time. This new adaptive and staged approach for GWAS experimental design was developed and tested in a 3 yr adaptive model-guided discovery experiment against a fixed classical design. In Sorghum bicolor a total of 79, 86, and 78 accessions were tested in years 1, 2, and 3, respectively out of 343 accessions available in the Bioenergy Association Panel (BAP) each identified for 232,303 SNPs, 1 every 2–3 kb in the genomes. We demonstrated the feasibility of MINE enacted with 8 people in the field per year over 3 yr vs in 1 large classical design enacted with 20 people in 1 yr. The MINE results for chromosomal regions identified controlling dry weight were confirmed against results from previous sorghum GWAS experiments and 1 large classical design for the BAP panel.

Genetics & Heredity↗

An experimental study of a hybrid adaptive control system

A Liapunov type model reference adaptive control system with five adjustable gains is implemented using a PDP-11 digital computer and an EAI 380 analog computer. The plant controlled is a laboratory type dc servo system. It is made to follow closely a second order linear model. The experimental results demonstrate the feasibility of implementing this rather complex design using only a minicomputer and a reasonable number of operational amplifiers. Also, it points out that satisfactory performance can be achieved even when certain assumptions necessary for the theory are not satisfied.

Lizewski, E. F.↗

Models of subjective response to in-flight motion data

Mathematical relationships between subjective comfort and environmental variables in an air transportation system are investigated. As a first step in model building, only the motion variables are incorporated and sensitivities are obtained using stepwise multiple regression analysis. The data for these models have been collected from commercial passenger flights. Two models are considered. In the first, subjective comfort is assumed to depend on rms values of the six-degrees-of-freedom accelerations. The second assumes a Rustenburg type human response function in obtaining frequency weighted rms accelerations, which are used in a linear model. The form of the human response function is examined and the results yield a human response weighting function for different degrees of freedom.

Rudrapatna, A. N.↗

Mechanically Accelerated Depolymerization of Entangled Linear Polymer Melts

Mechanical forces can enhance the chemical depolymerization of synthetic polymers when shear flow accelerates chain scission. To quantify the extent of mechanically-accelerated scission, the effect of simple shear flow (duration and strength) with low Weissenberg and Deborah numbers was investigated by considering the impact of applied work in both simple shear and shear dominated mixed flows. Hydrogenated polyisoprene was chosen as a model linear, entangled system. The conditions (strain amplitude, frequency, and shearing time) necessary to increase chain scission were assessed in the rubbery melt. Shear flow accelerated chain scission at higher temperatures, suggesting an activated process. Isothermal scission versus work curves were superposed by applying shift factors a T,S , whose Arrhenius-like temperature dependence gave an apparent activation energy for chain scission of ~ 110 kJ/mol, which is likely a combination of the activation energy of viscosity and bond energy. This work provides a base for quantifying the impact of shear on depolymerization of polymer melts and highlight the connection between viscous dissipation and scission chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Application of nonlinear feedback control theory to supermaneuverable aircraft

Controlled flight at extremely high angles of attack, far exceeding the stall angle, and/or at high angular rates is sometimes referred to as supermaneuvering flight. The objective was to examine methods for design of control laws for aircraft performing supermaneuvers. Since the equations which govern the motion of aircraft during supermaneuvers are nonlinear, this study concentrated on nonlinear control law design procedures. The two nonlinear techniques considered were Nonlinear Quadratic Regulator (NLQR) theory and nonlinear dynamic inversion. A conventional gain scheduled proportional plus integral (P + I) controller was also developed to serve as a baseline design typical of current control laws used in aircraft. A mathematical model of a generic supermaneuverable aircraft was developed from data obtained from the literature. A detailed computer simulation of the aircraft was also developed. This simulation allowed the flying of proposed supermaneuvers and was used to evaluate the performance of the control law designs and to generate linearized models of the aircraft at different flight conditions.

Garrard, William L.↗

Computational methods of robust controller design for aerodynamic flutter suppression

The development of Riccati iteration, a tool for the design and analysis of linear control systems is examined. First, Riccati iteration is applied to the problem of pole placement and order reduction in two-time scale control systems. Order reduction, yielding a good approximation to the original system, is demonstrated using a 16th order linear model of a turbofan engine. Next, a numerical method for solving the Riccati equation is presented and demonstrated for a set of eighth order random examples. A literature review of robust controller design methods follows which includes a number of methods for reducing the trajectory and performance index sensitivity in linear regulators. Lastly, robust controller design for large parameter variations is discussed.

Anderson, L. R.↗

Linearized T-Matrix and Mie Scattering Computations

We present a new linearization of T-Matrix and Mie computations for light scattering by non-spherical and spherical particles, respectively. In addition to the usual extinction and scattering cross-sections and the scattering matrix outputs, the linearized models will generate analytical derivatives of these optical properties with respect to the real and imaginary parts of the particle refractive index, and (for non-spherical scatterers) with respect to the ''shape'' parameter (the spheroid aspect ratio, cylinder diameter/height ratio, Chebyshev particle deformation factor). These derivatives are based on the essential linearity of Maxwell's theory. Analytical derivatives are also available for polydisperse particle size distribution parameters such as the mode radius. The T-matrix formulation is based on the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies FORTRAN 77 code developed in the 1990s. The linearized scattering codes presented here are in FORTRAN 90 and will be made publicly available.

Analytic linearization↗

Measurement of spin-density matrix elements in Δ ++ (1232) photoproduction

We measure the spin-density matrix elements (SDMEs) of the Δ ++ (1232) in the photoproduction reaction γp → π - Δ ++ (1232) with the GlueX experiment in Hall D at Jefferson Lab. The measurement uses a linearly–polarized photon beam with energies from 8.2 to 8.8 GeV and the statistical precision of the SDMEs exceeds the previous measurement by three orders of magnitude for the momentum transfer squared region below 1.4 GeV2. The data are sensitive to the previously undetermined relative sign between couplings in existing Regge-exchange models. Linear combinations of the extracted SDMEs allow for a decomposition into natural and unnatural–exchange amplitudes. We find that the unnatural exchange plays an important role in the low momentum transfer region.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A linear analysis of the transition curve for the baroclinic annulus

A primitive equation linear model is shown to be capable of quantitatively predicting the neutral curve for a baroclinic annulus. Flows unstable to small nonaxisymmetric perturbations are assumed to lie on the nonaxisymmetric side of a transition curve, while the stable flows are on the axisymmetric side. The stability in the presence of perturbations is tested with linearized hydrostatic primitive equations. Attention is given to the fastest growing eigenmodes, demonstrating that the linear and nonlinear wave have similar structures at a particular point in the nonaxisymmetric regime. All the waves are similar to the Eddy wave except at the extreme to the transition curve, where the waves maintain little structure with height. The eddy kinetic energy is baroclinic with a potential energy suppresed by the large static stability of the basic state. Eddy dissipation is noted to be significant near all boundaries.

Miller, T. L.↗

Identification of aerodynamic indicial functions using flight data

It is pointed out that the use of indicial function representation provides a model superior to the aerodynamic derivative model. Specific derivatives can be approximated from the indicial models. The model can also be used to compute equivalent stability and control parameters not usually available from flight data. It is shown that derivatives regarding the angle-of-attack and the side slip angle can be derived directly from the indicial functions without any identifiability problem. Attention is given to the pitch moment coefficient, linear indicial function representation, the identification problem for the pitch moment equation, the identifiability of linear systems, parametric representations of the indicial functions, an identification technique, angle-of-attack and pitch rate dynamics in the pitch plane, multivariate linear models, nonlinear aerodynamic indicial functions, measurement system accuracy, and poststall and spin-entry data from a scaled research vehicle.

Gupta, N. K.↗