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At least 397 records · Page 22

Deuterium Abundance in the Local ISM and Possible Spatial Variations

Excellent HST/GHRS spectra of interstellar hydrogen and deuterium Lyman-(alpha) absorption toward nearby stars allow us to identify systematic errors that have plagued earlier work and to measure accurate values of the D/H ratio in local interstellar gas. Analysis of 12 sightlines through the Local Interstellar Cloud leads to a mean value of D/H = (1.50 +/- 0.10) x 10(exp -5) with all data points lying within +/- l(delta) of the mean. Whether or not the D/H ratio has different values elsewhere in the Galaxy and beyond is a very important open question that will be one of the major objectives of the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) mission.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗

Radio Follow-up of a Candidate γ-Ray Transient in the Sky Localization Area of GW170608

After the identification of a candidate γ-ray transient in the error region of the binary black hole (BBH) merger GW150914 by the Fermi satellite, the question of whether BBH mergers can be associated with electromagnetic counterparts remains highly debated. Here, we present radio follow-up observations of GW170608, a BBH merger that occurred during the second observing run (O2) of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO). Our radio follow-up focused on a specific field contained in the GW170608 sky localization area, where a candidate high-energy transient was detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). We make use of data collected at 1.4 GHz with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA), as well as with the VLA Lowband Ionosphere and Transient Experiment (VLITE). Our analysis is sensitive to potential radio afterglows with luminosity densities L(1.4GHz) ≳ 6 x 10^(28) erg/sHz. In the most optimistic theoretical models, ≈20% of BBH events occurring in massive hosts could be associated with outflows as radio luminous as this. Although we find no evidence for the presence of a radio counterpart associated with the LAT candidate in the GW170608 error region, our analysis demonstrates the feasibility of future radio follow-up observations of well-localized BBHs. Comparing our radio upper limits with theoretical expectations for the radio afterglows potentially associated with jets launched in BBH mergers, we find that for jets of energy ≈10^(49) erg seen on-axis, only jet angles θ(jet)≳40° are compatible with the observations.

Kyle Artkop↗

General Characteristics of a Airspeed System using Fuselage Static Vents on a Swept-Wing Airplane

Studies have been made by the NACA wing-flow method of the use of fuselage static orifices between the wing and tail of a swept-wing airplane for possible application to service airspeed installations. The tests were made at zero angle of attack. The results indicate that, although the maximum errors are large, these locations are usable from the consideration that the local Mach numbers at the locations studied are sensitive to variation of the true Mach number within the test Mach number range of 0.7 to 1.2. The maximum errors in Mach number in the subsonic range varied from zero for the most forward location to -0.05 for the most rearward location (indicated Mach number less than true). At Mach numbers above 1.0, the maximum errors were from 0.14 for the most forward location to 0.04 for the most rearward location.

Johnston, J. Ford↗

Sampling Errors of SSM/I and TRMM Rainfall Averages: Comparison with Error Estimates from Surface Data and a Sample Model

Quantitative use of satellite-derived maps of monthly rainfall requires some measure of the accuracy of the satellite estimates. The rainfall estimate for a given map grid box is subject to both remote-sensing error and, in the case of low-orbiting satellites, sampling error due to the limited number of observations of the grid box provided by the satellite. A simple model of rain behavior predicts that Root-mean-square (RMS) random error in grid-box averages should depend in a simple way on the local average rain rate, and the predicted behavior has been seen in simulations using surface rain-gauge and radar data. This relationship was examined using satellite SSM/I data obtained over the western equatorial Pacific during TOGA COARE. RMS error inferred directly from SSM/I rainfall estimates was found to be larger than predicted from surface data, and to depend less on local rain rate than was predicted. Preliminary examination of TRMM microwave estimates shows better agreement with surface data. A simple method of estimating rms error in satellite rainfall estimates is suggested, based on quantities that can be directly computed from the satellite data.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

Impact of Bias in the Marine Air Temperature Observation Set on Atmospheric Reanalyses

Marine air temperature observations are collected by volunteer observing ships carrying automatic meteorological sensor packages. Close proximity of the package mount to a dark colored ship's deck is known to introduce a warm bias on sunny afternoons in summer under low wind conditions. This observation set is used as an influential constraint in the MERRA-2 reanalysis, as well as several other reanalyses, in the poorly sampled surface marine boundary layer. Here we explore the consequences of bias in the marine air temperature observation set during the 36 year period 1980-2015. Marine air temperature observations have mainly been collected along major shipping routes, with the densest coverage in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. In the first part of this presentation we review the historical observation coverage and compare air temperature and contemporaneous SST measurements to identify systematic differences. The comparison suggests the presence of diurnal bias in the air temperature observations peaking in subtropics and midlatitudes latitudes in mid-afternoon local time. In the second part we explore the impact of the marine air temperature observations on MERRA-2 through analysis of the terms in the temperature forecast tendency equation, the equation which describes the contributions to changes in temperature during each analysis cycle. Examination of the temperature forecast tendency equation allows us to separate systematic errors due to such processes and radiation, mixing, and advection and allows us to identify the major source of systematic forecast tendencies. The results show that the marine air temperature measurements introduce an error that can reach 0.4K/dy which also peaks in local afternoon at subtropical latitudes. This bias varies with season and has gradually reduced from the beginning of the MERRA-2 reanalysis in 1980. In the final part we conduct numerical experiments with a version of the MERRA-2 analysis system, comparing experiments when the marine air temperature observations are included or withheld from the analysis system.

Akella, Santharam↗

Conical Probe Calibration and Wind Tunnel Data Analysis of the Channeled Centerbody Inlet Experiment

For a multi-hole test probe undergoing wind tunnel tests, the resulting data needs to be analyzed for any significant trends. These trends include relating the pressure distributions, the geometric orientation, and the local velocity vector to one another. However, experimental runs always involve some sort of error. As a result, a calibration procedure is required to compensate for this error. For this case, it is the misalignment bias angles resulting from the distortion associated with the angularity of the test probe or the local velocity vector. Through a series of calibration steps presented here, the angular biases are determined and removed from the data sets. By removing the misalignment, smoother pressure distributions contribute to more accurate experimental results, which in turn could be then compared to theoretical and actual in-flight results to derive any similarities. Error analyses will also be performed to verify the accuracy of the calibration error reduction. The resulting calibrated data will be implemented into an in-flight RTF script that will output critical flight parameters during future CCIE experimental test runs. All of these tasks are associated with and in contribution to NASA Dryden Flight Research Center s F-15B Research Testbed s Small Business Innovation Research of the Channeled Centerbody Inlet Experiment.

Truong, Samson Siu↗

Measurements and Model Improvement: Insight into NWP Model Error Using Doppler Lidar and Other WFIP2 Measurement Systems

Abstract Doppler-lidar wind-profile measurements at three sites were used to evaluate NWP model errors from two versions of NOAA’s 3-km-grid HRRR model, to see whether updates in the latest version 4 reduced errors when compared against the original version 1. Nested (750-m grid) versions of each were also tested to see how grid spacing affected forecast skill. The measurements were part of the field phase of the Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), an 18-month deployment into central Oregon–Washington, a major wind-energy-producing region. This study focuses on errors in simulating marine intrusions, a summertime, 600–800-m-deep, regional sea-breeze flow found to generate large errors. HRRR errors proved to be complex and site dependent. The most prominent error resulted from a premature drop in modeled marine-intrusion wind speeds after local midnight, when lidar-measured winds of greater than 8 m s −1 persisted through the next morning. These large negative errors were offset at low levels by positive errors due to excessive mixing, complicating the interpretation of model “improvement,” such that the updates to the full-scale versions produced mixed results, sometimes enhancing but sometimes degrading model skill. Nesting consistently improved model performance, with version 1’s nest producing the smallest errors overall. HRRR’s ability to represent the stages of sea-breeze forcing was evaluated using radiation budget, surface-energy balance, and near-surface temperature measurements available during WFIP2. The significant site-to-site differences in model error and the complex nature of these errors mean that field-measurement campaigns having dense arrays of profiling sensors are necessary to properly diagnose and characterize model errors, as part of a systematic approach to NWP model improvement. Significance Statement Dramatic increases in NWP model skill will be required over the coming decades. This paper describes the role of major deployments of accurate profiling sensors in achieving that goal and presents an example from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2). Wind-profile data from scanning Doppler lidars were used to evaluate two versions of HRRR, the original and an updated version, and nested versions of each. This study focuses on the ability of updated HRRR versions to improve upon predicting a regional sea-breeze flow, which was found to generate large errors by the original HRRR. Updates to the full-scale HRRR versions produced mixed results, but the finer-mesh versions consistently reduced model errors.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

An investigation of techniques for the measurement and interpretation of cosmic ray isotopic abundances

An instrument, the Caltech High Energy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope was developed to measure isotopic abundances of cosmic ray nuclei by employing an energy loss - residual energy technique. A detailed analysis was made of the mass resolution capabilities of this instrument. A formalism, based on the leaky box model of cosmic ray propagation, was developed for obtaining isotopic abundance ratios at the cosmic ray sources from abundances measured in local interstellar space for elements having three or more stable isotopes, one of which is believed to be absent at the cosmic ray sources. It was shown that the dominant sources of uncertainty in the derived source ratios are uncorrelated errors in the fragmentation cross sections and statistical uncertainties in measuring local interstellar abundances. These results were applied to estimate the extent to which uncertainties must be reduced in order to distinguish between cosmic ray production in a solar-like environment and in various environments with greater neutron enrichments.

Wiedenbeck, M. E.↗

On the accurate long-time solution of the wave equation in exterior domains: Asymptotic expansions and corrected boundary conditions

We consider the solution of scattering problems for the wave equation using approximate boundary conditions at artificial boundaries. These conditions are explicitly viewed as approximations to an exact boundary condition satisfied by the solution on the unbounded domain. We study the short and long term behavior of the error. It is provided that, in two space dimensions, no local in time, constant coefficient boundary operator can lead to accurate results uniformly in time for the class of problems we consider. A variable coefficient operator is developed which attains better accuracy (uniformly in time) than is possible with constant coefficient approximations. The theory is illustrated by numerical examples. We also analyze the proposed boundary conditions using energy methods, leading to asymptotically correct error bounds.

Hagstrom, Thomas↗

Few-nanoradian deep space navigation in local reference frames

Angular navigation with Very Long Baseline Interferometry is performed at the 15-100 nanoradian level by differencing the interferometric delays of a spacecraft and nearby radio source. Clock rate, earth orientation and atmospheric effects limit the accuracy. By observing several radio sources along with the spacecraft, these dominant errors can be reduced by parameter estimation. Using improved instrumentation, the technique analyzed below, which can potentially yield 1-3 nanoradian accuracy, locates the spacecraft in a local reference frame of radio sources. In this paper, observation strategies and covariance results will be presented for the local reference frame technique. The error contributions of system noise and tropospheric fluctuations will be evaluated. An application of this few-nanoradian technique to Jovian approach is also presented.

Treuhaft, R. N.↗

Overview of recent progress in 3D field physics in KSTAR

Various 3D field physics challenges of magnetically confined plasmas arise when the driving source comes from either externally applied non-axisymmetric 3D magnetic perturbations or plasma instabilities inside the plasma. Recently, several key outstanding topics of 3D field physics have been extensively studied in the Korean Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR), such as edge-localized-mode (ELM) control by resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP), error field (EF) control, 3D field effects on rotation and transport, and RMP-induced alteration of divertor heat flux and detachment. KSTAR has a few physically unique features (i.e., high rotation and long-pulse plasmas with a low intrinsic EF) and machine/diagnostic capabilities (i.e., 3-row in-vessel control coil and state-of-the-art 2D/3D imaging diagnostics), which have been taken advantage of until now to address critical 3D field physics issues relevant to ITER and K-DEMO. Among many remarkable achievements are the robust access to and control of n = 1 RMP ELM suppression, along with a development of its physics basis tools, parameter expansion, optimization, and long-pulse control techniques. Nonetheless, a series of unresolved 3D physics themes, as well as limited coverage of 3D field operating regimes, have also been identified as future works for the 3D field research in KSTAR. In this paper, we provide an overview about the recent progress of KSTAR 3D field physics and present future plans of KSTAR 3D research toward a future fusion reactor.

3D field physics↗

Current data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces in the Λ CDM cosmological model but favor more lensing than the model predicts

Here, we study the performance of three pairs of tilted, and a pair of untilited, ΛCDM cosmological models, with three of these four pairs allowing for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, against cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectrum data (P18), measurements of the Planck 2018 lensing potential power spectrum (lensing), and a large compilation of non-CMB data (non-CMB). For the eight models, we measure cosmological parameters and study whether or not pairs of the data sets (as well as subsets of them) are mutually consistent in these models. Half of these models allow the lensing consistency parameter A L , which re-scales the gravitational potential power spectrum, to be an additional free parameter to be determined from data, while the other three have A L = 1 which is the theoretically expected value. The pair of untilted non-flat ΛCDM models are incompatible with P18 data. The tilted spatially-flat models assume the usual primordial spatial inhomogeneity power spectrum that is a power law in wave number. The tilted non-flat models assume either the primordial power spectrum used in the Planck group anal yses [Planck P(q)], that has recently been numerically shown to be a good approximation to what is quantum-mechanically generated from a particular choice of closed inflation model initial conditions, or a recently computed power spectrum [new P(q)] that quantum-mechanically follows from a different set of non-flat inflation model initial conditions. In the tilted non-flat models with A L = 1 we find differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological parameter constraints, which are large enough to rule out the Planck P(q) model at 3σ but not the new P(q) model. No significant differences are found when cosmological parameter constraints obtained with two different data sets are compared within the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. While both P18 data and non-CMB data separately favor a closed geometry, with spatial curvature density parameter Ω k < 0, when P18+non-CMB data are jointly analyzed the evidence in favor of non-flat hypersurfaces subsides. Differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological constraints subside when A L is allowed to vary. From the most restrictive P18+lensing+non-CMB data combination we get almost model-independent constraints on the cosmological parameters and find that the A L > 1 option is preferred over the Ω k < 0 one, with the A L parameter, for all models, being larger than unity by ~ 2.5σ. According to the deviance information criterion, in the P18+lensing+non-CMB analysis, the varying A L option is on the verge of being strongly favored over the A L = 1 one, which could indicate a problem for the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. These data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces but more and better data could improve the constraints on Ω k and might alter this conclusion. Error bars on some cosmological parameters are significantly reduced when non-CMB data are used jointly with P18+lensing data. For example, in the tilted flat ΛCDM model for P18+lensing+non-CMB data the Hubble constant H 0 = 68.09 ± 0.38 km s -1 Mpc -1 , which is consistent with that from a median statistics analysis of a large compilation of H 0 measurements as well as with a number of local measurements of the cosmological expansion rate. This H 0 error bar is 31% smaller than that from P18+lensing data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Orifice-induced pressure error studies in Langley 7- by 10-foot high-speed tunnel

For some time it has been known that the presence of a static pressure measuring hole will disturb the local flow field in such a way that the sensed static pressure will be in error. The results of previous studies aimed at studying the error induced by the pressure orifice were for relatively low Reynolds number flows. Because of the advent of high Reynolds number transonic wind tunnels, a study was undertaken to assess the magnitude of this error at high Reynolds numbers than previously published and to study a possible method of eliminating this pressure error. This study was conducted in the Langley 7- by 10-Foot High-Speed Tunnel on a flat plate. The model was tested at Mach numbers from 0.40 to 0.72 and at Reynolds numbers from 7.7 x 1,000,000 to 11 x 1,000,000 per meter (2.3 x 1,000,000 to 3.4 x 1,000,000 per foot), respectively. The results indicated that as orifice size increased, the pressure error also increased but that a porous metal (sintered metal) plug inserted in an orifice could greatly reduce the pressure error induced by the orifice.

Plentovich, E. B.↗

Data-assisted combustion simulations with dynamic submodel assignment using random forests

This investigation outlines a data-assisted approach that employs random forest classifiers for local and dynamic submodel assignment in turbulent-combustion simulations. This method is demonstrated in simulations of a single-element GOX/GCH4 rocket combustor; a priori as well as a posteriori assessments are conducted to (i) evaluate the accuracy and adjustability of the classifier for targeting different quantities of interest (QoIs), and (ii) assess improvements, resulting from the data-assisted combustion model assignment, in predicting target QoIs during simulation runtime. Results from the a priori study show that random forests, trained with local flow properties as input variables and combustion model errors as training labels, assign three different combustion models – finite-rate chemistry (FRC), flamelet progress variable (FPV) model, and inert mixing (IM) – with reasonable classification performance even when targeting multiple QoIs. Applications in a posteriori studies demonstrate improved predictions from data-assisted simulations, in temperature and CO mass fraction, when compared with monolithic FPV calculations. An additional a posteriori data-assisted simulation of a modified configuration demonstrates that the present approach can be successfully applied to different configurations, as long as thermophysical behavior can be represented by the training data. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that this data-driven framework holds promise for dynamic combustion submodel assignments in reacting flow simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Unmasking Static Correlation Error in Hybrid Kohn–Sham Density Functional Theory

To uncover the way Hartree–Fock exchange brings static correlation error into hybrid Kohn–Sham density functional theory, we compare the potential energy curves of four diatomic molecules, namely, H 2 , F 2 , HF, and NaF, using both restricted and unrestricted Kohn–Sham theory. Here, we find that increasing the percentage of Hartree–Fock exchange significantly increases the static correlation error because Hartree–Fock exchange replaces the ability of local exchange in density functionals to account for the localization effects associated with static correlation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Estimating the local dark matter density in a non-axisymmetric wobbling disc

The density of dark matter near the Sun, ρDM, ⊙, is important for experiments hunting for dark matter particles in the laboratory, and for constraining the local shape of the Milky Way’s dark matter halo. Estimates to date have typically assumed that the Milky Way’s stellar disc is axisymmetric and in a steady-state. Yet the Milky Way disc is neither, exhibiting prominent spiral arms and a bar, and vertical and radial oscillations. Here, we assess the impact of these assumptions on determinations of ρDM, ⊙ by applying a free-form, steady-state, Jeans method to two different N-body simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies. In one, the galaxy has experienced an ancient major merger, similar to the hypothesized Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus; in the other, the galaxy is perturbed more recently by the repeated passage and slow merger of a Sagittarius-like dwarf galaxy. We assess the impact of each of the terms in the Jeans–Poisson equations on our ability to correctly extract ρDM, ⊙ from the simulated data. We find that common approximations employed in the literature – axisymmetry and a locally flat rotation curve – can lead to significant systematic errors of up to a factor ~1.5 in the recovered surface mass density ~2 kpc above the disc plane, implying a fractional error on ρDM, ⊙ of the order of unity. However, once we add in the tilt term and the rotation curve term in our models, we obtain an unbiased estimate of ρDM, ⊙, consistent with the true value within our 95 percent confidence intervals for realistic 20 percent uncertainties on the baryonic surface density of the disc. Other terms – the axial tilt, 2nd Poisson and time-dependent terms – contribute less than 10 percent to ρDM, ⊙ (given current data) and can be safely neglected for now. In the future, as more data become available, these terms will need to be included in the analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neural Architecture and Feature Search for Predicting the Ridership of Public Transportation Routes

Accurately predicting the ridership of public-transit routes provides substantial benefits to both transit agencies, who can dispatch additional vehicles proactively before the vehicles that serve a route become crowded, and to passengers, who can avoid crowded vehicles based on publicly available predictions. The spread of the coronavirus disease has further elevated the importance of ridership prediction as crowded vehicles now present not only an inconvenience but also a public-health risk. At the same time, accurately predicting ridership has become more challenging due to evolving ridership patterns, which may make all data except for the most recent records stale. One promising approach for improving prediction accuracy is to fine-tune the hyper-parameters of machine-learning models for each transit route based on the characteristics of the particular route, such as the number of records. However, manually designing a machine-learning model for each route is a labor-intensive process, which may require experts to spend a significant amount of their valuable time. To help experts with designing machine-learning models, we propose a neural-architecture and feature search approach, which optimizes the architecture and features of a deep neural network for predicting the ridership of a public-transit route. Our approach is based on a randomized local hyper-parameter search, which minimizes both prediction error as well as the complexity of the model. We evaluate our approach on real-world ridership data provided by the public transit agency of Chattanooga, TN, and we demonstrate that training neural networks whose architectures and features are optimized for each route provides significantly better performance than training neural networks whose architectures and features are generic.

Ayman, Afiya↗

Shuttle orbiter Ku-band radar/communications system design evaluation. Ku band bent-pipe channel performance evaluation

Because of difficulties with the bit detector of the SPA mode 1 channel 3 input port, a new bit synchronizer was required. The two prime candidate designs are described and analyzed. The selected design is a modification of one which utilizes a phase frequency detector to track the received data clock frequency and a mid-bit transition point sample detector to generate a bit timing error (phase error) signal to control the relative phase between the local clock and the local data stream. The model used to calculate the effects of cable attenuation and rise time degradation is discussed.

Holmes, J. K.↗