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At least 397 records · Page 22

Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has successfully provided the climate community with a rich collection of simulation output from Earth system models (ESMs) that can be used to understand past climate changes and make projections and uncertainty estimates of the future. Confidence in ESMs can be gained because the models are based on physical principles and reproduce many important aspects of observed climate. More research is required to identify the processes that are most responsible for systematic biases and the magnitude and uncertainty of future projections so that more relevant performance tests can be developed. At the same time, there are many aspects of ESM evaluation that are well established and considered an essential part of systematic evaluation but have been implemented ad hoc with little community coordination. Given the diversity and complexity of ESM analysis, we argue that the CMIP community has reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently and consistently. We provide a perspective and viewpoint on how a more systematic, open, and rapid performance assessment of the large and diverse number of models that will participate in current and future phases of CMIP can be achieved, and announce our intention to implement such a system for CMIP6. Accomplishing this could also free up valuable resources as many scientists are frequently "re-inventing the wheel" by re-writing analysis routines for well-established analysis methods. A more systematic approach for the community would be to develop and apply evaluation tools that are based on the latest scientific knowledge and observational reference, are well suited for routine use, and provide a wide range of diagnostics and performance metrics that comprehensively characterize model behaviour as soon as the output is published to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The CMIP infrastructure enforces data standards and conventions for model output and documentation accessible via the ESGF, additionally publishing observations (obs4MIPs) and reanalyses (ana4MIPs) for model intercomparison projects using the same data structure and organization as the ESM output. This largely facilitates routine evaluation of the ESMs, but to be able to process the data automatically alongside the ESGF, the infrastructure needs to be extended with processing capabilities at the ESGF data nodes where the evaluation tools can be executed on a routine basis. Efforts are already underway to develop community-based evaluation tools, and we encourage experts to provide additional diagnostic codes that would enhance this capability for CMIP. And, at the same time, we encourage the community to contribute observations and reanalyses for model evaluation to the obs4MIPs and ana4MIPs archives. The intention is to produce through the ESGF a widely accepted quasi-operational evaluation framework for CMIP6 that would routinely execute a series of standardized evaluation tasks. Over time, as this capability matures, we expect to produce an increasingly systematic characterization of models which, compared with early phases of CMIP, will more quickly and openly identify the strengths and weaknesses of the simulations. This will also reveal whether long-standing model errors remain evident in newer models and will assist modelling groups in improving their models. Finally, this framework will be designed to readily incorporate updates, including new observations and additional diagnostics and metrics as they become available from the research community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fully coupled, dynamic model of a magnetostrictive amorphous ribbon and its validation

Magnetostrictive amorphous ribbons are widely used in electronic article surveillance as well as for magnetoelastic sensors. Both applications utilize the fact that the ribbons' resonant frequency can be read out remotely by applying external magnetic AC fields. This paper proposes a magnetomechanical model to simulate the dynamics of such ribbons. The goal was to only use general material properties as input parameters, which are usually denoted in the data sheet of amorphous metals. Thus, only the magnetization curve at zero stress has to be gained via measurement. The magnetization under stress is calculated thereof. The equation of motion for a longitudinally oscillating ribbon is derived and coupled to Maxwell's equations for magnetostatics. The fully coupled initial value problem is solved simultaneously by a finite difference approach. The model is validated by comparing calculated and measured resonant frequencies of various amorphous ribbons, which turned out to be in good agreement. When slightly adapting single material properties from the data sheet, the match is almost perfect. The model is then used to calculate the local magnetic and mechanical properties inside static and vibrating ribbons. These local distributions can be directly linked to the field dependence of the resonant frequency and its higher harmonics.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Impact of the microstructure model on coupled simulation of drying and accelerated carbonation

During carbonation, the microstructure of a cement paste is strongly modified, which induces a dynamic feedback loop impacting the global advancement of the reaction. In this study, we investigate the effect of the microstructure model on simulations of accelerated carbonation of cement pastes. A variable-porosity reactive transport model with a new microstructure model is used. To match the chemical layers created by the carbonation front, we use a layered microstructure model. We demonstrate that qualitative prediction for a large range of conditions and formulations can only be obtained if the macroscopic parameters of the carbonated layer can be modelled accurately. In particular, the saturation dependent parameters, such as the capillary pressure or the relative diffusion coefficients, control the rate of advancement of the reaction front since a high saturation inhibits the carbon dioxide diffusion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertain role of clouds in shaping summertime atmosphere-sea ice connections in reanalyses and CMIP6 models

Downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) driven by the atmospheric and cloud conditions in the troposphere is suggested to be a dominant factor to determine the summertime net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean and thus plays a key role to shape the September sea ice. We use reanalyses and the self-organizing map (SOM) method to distinguish CMIP6 model performance in replicating the observed strong atmosphere-DLR connection. We find all models can reasonably simulate the linkage between key atmosphere variables and the clear sky DLR but behave differently in replicating the atmosphere-DLR connection due to cloud forcing. In ERA5 and strongly coupled models, tropospheric high pressure is associated with decreased clouds in the mid- and high-levels and increased clouds near the surface. This out-of-phase structure indicates that DLR cloud forcing is nearly neutral, making the clear sky DLR more important to bridge JJA circulation to late-summer sea ice. In MERRA-2 and weakly coupled models, tropospheric clouds display a vertically homogeneous reduction; the cloud DLR is thus strongly reduced due to the cooling effect, which partially cancels out the clear sky DLR and makes the total DLR less efficient to translate circulation forcing to sea ice. The differences of cloud vertical distribution in CMIP6 appear to be differentiated by circulation related relative humidity. Therefore, a better understanding of the discrepancy of different reanalyses and remote sensing products is critical to comprehensively evaluate simulated interactions among circulation, clouds, sea ice and energy budget at the surface in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Response of a Semiactive Suspension System with Hysteretic Nonlinear Energy Sink Based on Random Excitation by means of Computer Simulation

This paper aims to investigate the property and behavior of the hysteretic nonlinear energy sink (HNES) coupled to a half vehicle system which is a nine-degree-of-freedom, nonlinear, and semiactive suspension system in order to improve the ride comfort and increase the stability in shock mitigation by using the computer simulation method. The HNES model is a semiactive suspension device, which comprises the famous Bouc–Wen (B-W) model employed to describe the force produced by both the purely hysteretic spring and linear elastic spring of potentially negative stiffness connected in parallel, for the half vehicle system. Nine nonlinear motion equations of the half vehicle system are derived in terms of the seven displacements and the two dimensionless hysteretic variables, which are integrated numerically by employing the direct time integration method for studying both the variables of vertical displacements, velocities, accelerations, chassis pitch angle, and the ride comfort and driver safety, respectively, based on the bump and random road inputs of the pseudoexcitation method as excitation signal. Simulation results show that, compared with the HNES model and the magnetorheological (MR) model coupled to the half vehicle system, the ride comfort and stability have been evidently improved. A successful validation process has been performed, which indicated that both the ride comfort and driver safety properties of the HNES model coupled to half vehicle significantly improved.

Chen, Hui↗

Specification Document for OC6 Phase II: Verification of an Advanced Soil-Structure Interaction Model for Offshore Wind Turbines

The Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) has developed a new macro-element model that accounts for the soil-structure interaction in offshore wind turbines. This development was done as part of the REDWIN (REDucing cost of offshore WINd by integrated structural and geotechnical design) project. The focus of Phase II of the OC6 project was to integrate REDWIN’s new soil-structure modeling capability into the coupled modeling tools that are used to design fixed-bottom offshore wind systems. The integration was then verified through a series of load cases using an example monopile-based offshore wind system examined within the WAS-XL project. This document provides the details needed to model the system examined in OC6 Phase II, using the new REDWIN modeling approach, as well as other standard modeling approaches, including apparent fixity, distributed springs, and coupled springs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2)

An overview of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long pre-industrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low-top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high-top” (140 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low latitude precipitation and short-wave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; better El Niño – Southern Oscillation-related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally-based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low- and high-top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1-5.3°C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2’s transient climate response of 1.9-2.0°C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and theyrepresent CESM2’s contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Danabasoglu, Gokhan↗

Phase-field model of coupled insulator-metal transitions and oxygen vacancy redox reactions

A predominant ubiquitous feature of strongly correlated oxides is the possible presence of oxygen vacancies, which has recently been shown to have profound effects on their electronic phase transitions. Here, we formulate a comprehensive phase-field model of intercoupled insulator-metal transitions and oxygen vacancy redox reactions, taking into account the valence electron state of oxygen vacancies. We use the model to study the voltage self-oscillation phenomenon in a prototypical strongly correlated oxide, VO 2 , and discover the mutual activation of the insulator-metal transition and oxygen vacancy redox reactions leading to systematic enhancement of the oscillation frequency. Furthermore, the established methodology and the mutual activation mechanism are generally applicable to understanding any insulator-metal transition dynamics in oxygen-deficient correlated oxides and improving the performance of voltage self-oscillation-based artificial neurons.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Recovery Act: An Integrated Experimental and Numerical Study: Developing a Reaction Transport Model that Couples Chemical Reactions of Mineral Dissolution/Precipitation with Spatial and Temporal Flow Variations.

A total of 12 publications and 23 abstracts were produced as a result of this study. In particular, the compilation of a thermodynamic database utilizing consistent, current thermodynamic data is a major step toward accurately modeling multi-phase fluid interactions with solids. Existing databases designed for aqueous fluids did not mesh well with existing solid phase databases. Addition of a second liquid phase (CO2) magnifies the inconsistencies between aqueous and solid thermodynamic databases. Overall, the combination of high temperature and pressure lab studies (task 1), using a purpose built apparatus, and solid characterization (task 2), using XRCT and more developed technologies, allowed observation of dissolution and precipitation processes under CO2 reservoir conditions. These observations were combined with results from PIV experiments on multi-phase fluids (task 3) in typical flow path geometries. The results of the tasks 1, 2, and 3 were compiled and integrated into numerical models utilizing Lattice-Boltzmann simulations (task 4) to realistically model the physical processes and were ultimately folded into TOUGH2 code for reservoir scale modeling (task 5). Compilation of the thermodynamic database assisted comparisons to PIV experiments (Task 3) and greatly improved Lattice Boltzmann (Task 4) and TOUGH2 simulations (Task 5). PIV (Task 3) and experimental apparatus (Task 1) have identified problem areas in TOUGHREACT code. Additional lab experiments and coding work has been integrated into an improved numerical modeling code.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The ENSO-Australian rainfall teleconnection in reanalysis and CMIP5

Australian rainfall is strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The relationship between ENSO and rainfall in eastern Australia is non-linear; the magnitude of La Niña events has a greater effect on rainfall than does the magnitude of El Niño events, and the cause of the non-linearity is unclear from previous work. The twentieth century reanalysis succeeds in capturing the asymmetric ENSO-rainfall relationship. In the reanalysis the asymmetry is strongly related to moisture availability in the south-west Pacific whereas wind flow is of less importance. Some global climate models (GCMs) in the CMIP5 archive capture the asymmetric nature of the ENSO-rainfall relationship whilst others do not. Differences in thermodynamic processes and their relationships with ENSO are the primary cause of variability in model performance. Analysis of an atmosphere-only run of a GCM which fails to capture the non-linear ENSO-rainfall relationship is also conducted. The atmospheric run forced by observed SSTs shows no significant improvement in the ENSO-rainfall relationship over the corresponding coupled model run in the CMIP5 archive. This result suggests that some models are failing to capture the atmospheric teleconnection between the tropical Pacific and Australia, and both this and a realistic representation of oceanic ENSO characteristics are required for coupled models to accurately capture the ENSO-rainfall teleconnection. These findings have implications for the study of rainfall projections in the region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Order g{sup 2} susceptibilities in the symmetric phase of the Standard Model

Susceptibilities of conserved charges such as baryon minus lepton number enter baryogenesis computations, since they provide the relationship between conserved charges and chemical potentials. Their next-to-leading order corrections are of order g, where g is a generic Standard Model coupling. They are due to soft Higgs boson exchange, and have been calculated recently, together with some order g{sup 2} corrections. Here we compute the complete g{sup 2} contributions. Close to the electroweak crossover the soft Higgs contribution is of order g{sup 2}, and is determined by the non-perturbative physics at the magnetic screening scale.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Modeling Framework for Evaluating the Drought Resilience of a Surface Water Supply System under Non-stationarity

The future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selected from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.

Zhao, Gang (ORCID:0000000327370530)↗

The Generality of the GUGA MRCI Approach in COLUMBUS for Treating Complex Quantum Chemistry

The core part of the program system COLUMBUS allows highly efficient calculations using variational multireference (MR) methods in the framework of configuration interaction with single and double excitations (MR-CISD) and averaged quadratic coupled-cluster calculations (MR-AQCC), based on uncontracted sets of configurations and the graphical unitary group approach (GUGA). The availability of analytic MR-CISD and MR-AQCC energy gradients and analytic nonadiabatic couplings for MR-CISD enables exciting applications including, e.g., investigations of π-conjugated biradicaloid compounds, calculations of multitudes of excited states, development of diabatization procedures, and furnishing the electronic structure information for on-the-fly surface nonadiabatic dynamics. With fully variational uncontracted spin-orbit MRCI, COLUMBUS provides a unique possibility of performing high-level calculations on compounds containing heavy atoms up to lanthanides and actinides. Crucial for carrying out all of these calculations effectively is the availability of an efficient parallel code for the CI step. Configuration spaces of several billion in size now can be treated quite routinely on standard parallel computer clusters. Emerging developments in COLUMBUS, including the all configuration mean energy multiconfiguration self-consistent field method and the graphically contracted function method, promise to allow practically unlimited configuration space dimensions. Spin density based on the GUGA approach, analytic spin-orbit energy gradients, possibilities for local electron correlation MR calculations, development of general interfaces for nonadiabatic dynamics, and MRCI linear vibronic coupling models conclude this overview.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multi-Physics Coupling to Model a RbCl-RbCl-Ga Target Stack

A computational model has been developed to simulate the performance of the Los Alamos Isotope Production Facility's (IPF) routine production target configuration, which consists of two Inconel-encapsulated RbCl salt targets and one niobium-encapsulated gallium target separated by water cooling channels. The methodology involves iteratively coupling particle transport and thermal hydraulic codes to determine the time dependent behavior of the target. Phase and density changes seen in targets are known to impact beam penetration and distribution. In addition, evidence of energy distributions seen in experimental radionuclide yield measurements at IPF do not match those seen in previous MCNP predictions. Density reduction as a result of heat deposition affects proton energy loss along the particle's track, impacting both radionuclide yields and target design. Accurate modeling of the thermal behavior of these multi-phase targets and the corresponding impact on beam behavior will significantly improve our understanding of incident and exit proton energy distributions and resulting radionuclide yields in downstream targets. Thermal hydraulic modeling, including computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and heat transfer, was performed with ANSYS CFX while particle transport was performed with the Monte Carlo N-Particle code (MCNP). (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Mathematical and Numerical Analyses of Peridynamics for Multiscale Materials Modeling

The rational design of materials, the development of accurate and efficient material simulation algorithms, and the determination of the response of materials to environments and loads occurring in practice all require an understanding of mechanics at disparate spatial and temporal scales. The project addresses mathematical and numerical analyses for material problems for which relevant scales range from those usually treated by molecular dynamics all the way up to those most often treated by classical elasticity. The prevalent approach towards developing a multiscale material model couples two or more well known models, e.g., molecular dynamics and classical elasticity, each of which is useful at a different scale, creating a multiscale multi-model. However, the challenges behind such a coupling are formidable and largely arise because the atomistic and continuum models employ nonlocal and local models of force, respectively. The project focuses on a multiscale analysis of the peridynamics materials model. Peridynamics can be used as a transition between molecular dynamics and classical elasticity so that the difficulties encountered when directly coupling those two models are mitigated. In addition, in some situations, peridynamics can be used all by itself as a material model that accurately and efficiently captures the behavior of materials over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Peridynamics is well suited to these purposes because it employs a nonlocal model of force, analogous to that of molecular dynamics; furthermore, at sufficiently large length scales and assuming smooth deformation, peridynamics can be approximated by classical elasticity. The project will extend the emerging mathematical and numerical analysis of peridynamics. One goal is to develop a peridynamics-enabled multiscale multi-model that potentially provides a new and more extensive mathematical basis for coupling classical elasticity and molecular dynamics, thus enabling next generation atomistic-to-continuum multiscale simulations. In addition, a rigorous studyof nite element discretizations of peridynamics will be considered. Using the fact that peridynamics is spatially derivative free, we will also characterize the space of admissible peridynamic solutions and carry out systematic analyses of the models, in particular rigorously showing how peridynamics encompasses fracture and other failure phenomena. Additional aspects of the project include the mathematical and numerical analysis of peridynamics applied to stochastic peridynamics models. In summary, the project will make feasible mathematically consistent multiscale models for the analysis and design of advanced materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of ocean model resolution on understanding the delayed warming of the Southern Ocean

Abstract Currently available historical climate change simulations indicate a relatively delayed Southern Ocean warming, particularly poleward of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) compared much of the rest of the globe. However, even this simulated delayed warming is inconsistent with observational estimates which show a cooling trend poleward of the ACC for the period 1979–2014. A fully coupled model run at two resolutions, i.e. ocean eddy parameterized and ocean eddy resolving, driven by historical and fixed CO2 concentration is used to investigate forced trends south of the ACC. We analyze the 1961–2005 Southern Ocean surface and upper ocean temperatures trends simulated by the model and observational estimates to understand the observed trends in the SO. At both resolutions, the models successfully reproduce the observed warming response for the northern flank of the ACC. The eddy resolving simulations, however, are able to reproduce the observed near Antarctic cooling in contrast to the eddy parameterized simulation which shows a warming trend. The cause of this inconsistency between the observations and the ocean eddy parameterized climate models is still a matter of debate, and we show here results that suggest resolved ocean meso-scale processes may be an integral part of capturing the observed trends in the Southern Ocean.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Use of Physics Based Management Optimization for Groundwater Remedy Design - 18671

Numerical modeling coupled with formal mathematical optimization techniques was used to design a groundwater remedy strategy to address a carbon tetrachloride (CCl{sub 4}) plume covering several square miles. The optimization approach, methodology, and project costs are described. The site consists of a large grain elevator in Nebraska. CCl{sub 4} was used as a fumigant and subsequently impacted soils and groundwater. Remedy design focused on the more diffuse plume, which extended approximately 4.5 miles down gradient of the source area. An eleven-layer model was developed and calibrated to observed groundwater conditions. This model was linked with formal optimization techniques to identify the best design capable of meeting client specified requirements and well location limitations. The planned system included requirements on the location of extraction and injection wells, total system flow rate, number of management periods, and specific constraints limiting further plume expansion. A separate trinitrotoluene (TNT) contaminant plume from a third party was located vertically above the leading edge of the CCl{sub 4} plume within the same aquifer. A further constraint imposed was that the design could not affect or cause additional migration of the TNT plume. Optimal system design was determined using HydroGeoLogic's Physics Based Management Optimization (PBMO{sup TM}) system. Over 38,000 candidate solutions consisting of different combinations of pumping and injection wells locations and rates, were evaluated through flow modeling coupled with either particle tracking or fully convective-dispersive transport simulations to determine the optimal design. Planning for installation of the optimal design is underway. Simulations were completed on a distributed computing platform consisting of 3 Quad Core PCs. Flow and particle tracking simulations required less than 2 minutes per simulation. Coupled flow and transport simulation run times were generally between 30-40 minutes per simulation. The total costs for developing the groundwater flow model and completing the subsequent optimal design were approximately $400,000. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Forcing data (CESM2/CMIP6) for projection of drought impacts (2015-2100) at the K34 site in Manaus, Brazil

Historical and projected output data variables extracted and derived from Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. CESM2 is a fully coupled Earth system model used in simulations of Earth's past, present, and future climates (Danabasoglu et al., 2020). Variables in this dataset are in six-hourly resolution, and include air temperature (both in K and ℃), specific humidity (kg kg-1), air pressure (Pa), relative humidity (%), and vapor pressure deficit (kPa). CESM2 was the only CMIP6 model that provided VPD at the high temporal resolution required for this analysis. Data are included in .csv files, and the text file CESM2-CMIP6_forcing_K34-Manaus_headers.txt provides descriptions of data file headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗