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DOE OSTI2025

DECOVALEX-2023: An international collaboration for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems

The DECOVALEX initiative is an international research collaboration (www.decovalex.org), initiated in 1992, for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. DECOVALEX stands for “DEvelopment of COupled Models and VALidation against EXperiments”. The creation of this international initiative was motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. DECOVALEX emphasizes joint analysis and comparative modeling of the complex perturbations and coupled processes in geologic repositories and how these impact long-term performance predictions. The most recent phase of the DECOVALEX Project, here referred to as DECOVALEX-2023, started in early 2020 and ended in late 2023. More than fifty research teams associated with 17 international DECOVALEX partner organizations participated in the comparative evaluation of eight modeling tasks covering a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, geological formations, and coupled processes. This Virtual Special Issue on DECOVALEX-2023 provides an in-depth overview of these collaborative research efforts and how these have advanced the state-of-the-art of understanding and modeling coupled THMC processes. While primarily focused on radioactive waste, much of the work included here has wider application to many geoengineering topics.

Coupled processes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observation of quantum effects on radiation reaction in strong fields

Radiation reaction, the force experienced by an accelerated charge due to radiation emission, has long been the subject of extensive theoretical and experimental research. Experimental verification of a quantum, strong-field description of radiation reaction is fundamentally important, and has wide-ranging implications for astrophysics, laser-driven particle acceleration, next-generation particle colliders and inverse-Compton photon sources for medical and industrial applications. However, the difficulty of accessing regimes where strong field and quantum effects dominate inhibited previous efforts to observe quantum radiation reaction in charged particle dynamics with high significance. We report the first high significance (> 5σ) observation of strong-field radiation reaction on electron spectra where quantum effects are substantial. We obtain the first, quantitative, strong evidence favouring the quantum-continuous and quantum-stochastic models over the classical model; the quantum models perform comparably. The lower electron energy losses predicted by the quantum models accounts for their improved performance. Model comparison was performed using a novel Bayesian framework which has widespread utility for laser-particle collision experiments, including those utilising conventional accelerators, where some collision parameters cannot be measured directly.

Los, Eva E. [Imperial College London (United Kingd↗

DOE OSTI2025

Divertor shaping with neutral baffling as a solution to the tokamak power exhaust challenge

Exhausting power from the hot fusion core to the plasma-facing components is one fusion energy’s biggest challenges. The MAST Upgrade tokamak uniquely integrates strong containment of neutrals within the exhaust area (divertor) with extreme divertor shaping capability. By systematically altering the divertor shape, this study shows the strongest evidence to date to our knowledge that long-legged divertors with a high magnetic field gradient (total flux expansion) deliver key power exhaust benefits without adversely impacting the hot fusion core. These benefits are already achieved with relatively modest geometry adjustments that are more feasible to integrate in reactor designs. Benefits include reduced target heat loads and improved access to, and stability of, a neutral gas buffer that ‘shields’ the target and enhances power exhaust (detachment). Analysis and model comparisons shows these benefits are obtained by combining multiple shaping aspects: long-legged divertors have expanded plasma-neutral interaction volume that drive reductions in particle and power loads, while total flux expansion enhances detachment access and stability. Containing the neutrals in the exhaust area with physical structures further augments these shaping benefits. These results demonstrate strategic variation in the divertor geometry and magnetic topology is a potential solution to one of fusion’s power exhaust challenge.

magnetically confined plasmas↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the Impact of Bus Dwelling on Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams

Network macroscopic fundamental diagrams (MFDs) have recently been shown to exist in real-world urban traffic networks. When present, MFDs can be used to model traffic dynamics within an urban network by dividing the network into a set of spatially compact homogeneous regions and tracking the average level of congestion in each region. Existing analytical methods to estimate MFD mostly focus on the behavior of a single type of vehicle and do not capture the patterns of mixed traffic (e.g., cars and buses). The existence of buses matters since a bus will block the movements of other vehicles when it dwells at the bus stop. This paper proposes an analytical method to estimate the impact of bus dwelling on a network’s MFD based on the network’s geometric features, traffic control strategies, and bus operation parameters, and validates the performance of the proposed method using simulations based on microscopic traffic models. Comparisons of the analytical and simulation results show that the proposed analytical method can generally provide a good estimate of the lower bound and upper bound of the network’s MFD.

Xu, Guanhao↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extended Rice–Thomson analysis and atomistic simulations revealing grain boundary effects on fracture in refractory high-entropy alloys

Significance This work serves to extend the fundamental ductile vs. brittle fracture theory, specifically the Rice–Thomson criterion, by introducing a grain boundary ahead of an initiating crack which propagates at an oblique angle to impinge the boundary. Atomistic fracture simulations on two refractory complex concentrated alloys, the brittle NbMoTaW and the ductile Nb 45 Ta 25 Ti 15 Hf 15 , demonstrate qualitative correspondence with the extended Rice–Thomson criterion and experimental observations. Abstract Understanding how grain boundaries mediate fracture remains a critical challenge in designing ductile, high-performance refractory alloys. Here, we extend the Rice–Thomson criterion to account for the angle between cracks and the impinging grain boundaries (GBs), capturing the competition between intergranular fracture and dislocation-mediated plasticity. Using machine learning interatomic potentials, we performed molecular statics simulations to probe fracture mechanisms in nanocrystalline NbMoTaW and Nb 45 Ta 25 Ti 15 Hf 15 , each with two different grain sizes, revealing trends consistent with experimental observations and the extended Rice model. Comparison with averaged R-curves for bulk samples demonstrates that GBs enhance ductility in Nb 45 Ta 25 Ti 15 Hf 15 in both grain sizes investigated. In contrast, GBs only locally improve fracture resistance in NbMoTaW when cracks are temporarily pinned at GBs inclined at high angles from the crack, but generally promote brittle intergranular fracture. These contrasting behaviors are attributed to differences in GB cohesion, reflecting clear alloying trends that align with ab-initio calculations and trends observed experimentally. Our results bridge classical fracture theory, atomistic simulations, and experimental observations, providing a comprehensive understanding of the fracture mechanisms in nanocrystalline refractory complex concentrated alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Long-Range Transverse-Momentum Correlations and Radial Flow in Pb-Pb Collisions at the LHC

This Letter presents measurements of long-range transverse-momentum correlations using a new observable, 𝑣 0⁡ (𝑝 T ), serving as a probe of event-by-event radial-flow fluctuations, the underlying radial expansion, and the medium’s properties in heavy-ion collisions. Results are reported for inclusive charged particles, pions, kaons, and protons across various centrality intervals in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV, recorded by the ALICE detector. A pseudorapidity-gap technique, similar to that used in anisotropic-flow studies, is employed to suppress short-range correlations. At low 𝑝 T , a characteristic mass ordering consistent with hydrodynamic collective flow is observed. At higher 𝑝 T (>3 GeV/𝑐), protons exhibit larger 𝑣 0 ⁡(𝑝 T ) than pions and kaons, in agreement with expectations from quark-recombination models. Comparisons to viscous hydrodynamic calculations with varying bulk viscosity and equation of state demonstrate the sensitivity of the 𝑣 0 ⁡(𝑝 T ) observable to these key medium properties. The findings establish 𝑣 0 ⁡(𝑝 T ) as a valuable addition to the set of observables used in Bayesian analyses for extracting the transport properties and constraining the equation of state of strongly interacting matter, while also helping to systematically explore its sensitivity and impact within such global studies.

Acharya, S. [INFN] (ORCID:0000000292135329)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of directed flow in Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s{NN}}$ = 19.6 and 27 GeV with the STAR event plane detector

In heavy-ion collision experiments, the global collectivity of final-state particles can be quantified by anisotropic flow coefficients (𝑣 𝑛 ) . The first-order flow coefficient, also referred to as the directed flow (𝑣 1 ), describes the collective sideward motion of produced particles and nuclear fragments in heavy-ion collisions. It carries information on the very early stage of the collision, especially at large pseudorapidity (𝜂), where it is believed to be generated during the nuclear passage time. Directed flow therefore probes the onset of bulk collective dynamics during thermalization, providing valuable experimental guidance to models of the pre-equilibrium stage. In 2018, the Event Plane Detector (EPD) was installed in STAR and used for the Beam Energy Scan phase-II (BES-II) data taking. The combination of EPD (2.1 < |𝜂| < 5.1) and high-statistics BES-II data enables us to extend the 𝑣 1 measurement to the forward and backward 𝜂 regions. In this paper, we present the measurement of 𝑣 1 over a wide 𝜂 range in Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 19.6 and 27 GeV using the STAR EPD. The results of the analysis at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 19.6 GeV exhibit excellent consistency with the previous PHOBOS measurement, while elevating the precision of the overall measurement. The increased precision of the measurement also revealed finer structures in heavy-ion collisions, including a potential observation of the first-order event-plane decorrelation. Multiple physics models were compared to the experimental results. Only a transport model and a three-fluid hybrid model can reproduce a sizable 𝑣 1 at large 𝜂 as was observed experimentally. The model comparison also indicates 𝑣 1 at large 𝜂 might be sensitive to the QGP phase transition.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning methods for weather forecasting

SAND2025-14466O This repository contains code for developing, training, and evaluating machine learning models for weather and climate forecasting, including forecast skill assessment, feature importance analysis, and reproducible workflows for model comparison. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Holthuijzen, Maike [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA),↗

DOE OSTI2026

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Downscaling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance of Convection-Permitting and Convection-Parameterized Models in Reproducing the Extreme Precipitation Intensity Relationship with Surface Conditions

Here, this study investigates the warm-season extreme precipitation–temperature scaling relationship in CONUS404, a convection-permitting (4 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation over the conterminous United States for the past four decades, and compares it with the WRF-Thermodynamic Global Warming (WRF-TGW) historical simulation at a coarser resolution (12 km) using parameterized convection. We also analyze the NCEP stage IV and NASA Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) datasets as observational benchmarks. We examine how extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) varies with temperature and saturation deficit over representative regions based on hourly data. The stage IV and IMERG data show a similar pattern of EPI variation with temperature and saturation deficit, except that the EPI peak is lower in IMERG than in stage IV. Under dry and hot conditions, EPI decreases too rapidly with elevated saturation deficit in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW compared to observations, but the performance of CONUS404 is superior to WRF-TGW. When the near-surface atmosphere is saturated or close to saturated, both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW produce higher peak values of EPI relative to the observational references; IMERG exhibits scaling rates close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship, while CONUS404, WRF-TGW, and stage IV all demonstrate super-C–C scaling behaviors. Despite marked warming over the past four decades, in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW, the scaling relationship between EPI and temperature in a saturated atmosphere remains stable and robust. This indicates a strong potential for the EPI–temperature scaling rate under saturation to be used as an emergent constraint in reducing uncertainties of future extreme precipitation projection.

Atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2024

Salt International Collaborations FY24 Update

This report summarizes the international collaborations conducted by Sandia funded by the US Department of Energy Office (DOE) of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) as part of the Sandia National Laboratories Salt R&D and Salt International work packages. This report satisfies the level-three milestone M3SF-24SN010303063. Several stand-alone sections make up this summary report, each completed by the participants. The sections discuss granular salt reconsolidation (KOMPASS/MEASURES), engineered barriers (RANGERS), numerical model comparison (DECOVALEX), an NEA Salt Club working group on the development of scenarios as part of the performance assessment development process, and progress on seal percolation experiments with German colleagues at Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS). Finally, we summarize events related to the US/German Workshop on Repository Research, Design and Operations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Cloud and Precipitation Properties on Temporal and Spatial Scales Using LASSO Simulations over ENA

Low clouds and precipitation representation remain a major source of uncertainty in Earth System Models (ESMs), particularly due to challenges in representing their sub-grid variability and scale-dependent sampling. This study evaluates the performance of preliminary simulations from the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project over the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), cloud fraction (CF), and surface precipitation simulated across closed-cell, open-cell, and transitional cloud regimes. Using LES (100 m horizontal grid spacing) driven by ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses, we assess the representativeness of ground-based point observations by analyzing their correspondence to model-resolved spatial and temporal means. Results suggest that observational sampling of at least 6 hours is required to achieve consistency with domain-scale averages, in particular for observations that exhibit pronounced sub-grid heterogeneity, such as precipitation. ERA5-forced simulations exhibit improved spatial coherence and agreement with domain-averaged quantities when compared to MERRA-2 runs, with performance discrepancies largest for convective cloud conditions due to differences in forcing fidelity and temporal resolution. These findings highlight the importance of regime-aware model evaluation strategies and potentially demonstrate how LES can inform observation-model comparison practices and the development of cloud and precipitation parameterizations in ESMs.

Liang, Jiakun [University of Hawai'i at Manoa] (OR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Learning from Arctic Microgrids: Cost and Resiliency Projections for Renewable Energy Expansion with Hydrogen and Battery Storage

Electricity in rural Alaska is provided by more than 200 standalone microgrid systems powered predominantly by diesel generators. Incorporating renewable energy generation and storage to these systems can reduce their reliance on costly imported fuel and improve sustainability; however, uncertainty remains about optimal grid architectures to minimize cost, including how and when to incorporate long-duration energy storage. This study implements a novel, multi-pronged approach to assess the techno-economic feasibility of future energy pathways in the community of Kotzebue, which has already successfully deployed solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. Using real community load, resource, and generation data, we develop a series of comparison models using the HOMER Pro software tool to evaluate microgrid architectures to meet over 90% of the annual community electricity demand with renewable generation, considering both battery and hydrogen energy storage. We find that near-term planned capacity expansions in the community could enable over 50% renewable generation and reduce the total cost of energy. Additional build-outs to reach 75% renewable generation are shown to be competitive with current costs, but further capacity expansion is not currently economical. We additionally include a cost sensitivity analysis and a storage capacity sizing assessment that suggest hydrogen storage may be economically viable if battery costs increase, but large-scale seasonal storage via hydrogen is currently unlikely to be cost-effective nor practical for the region considered. While these findings are based on data and community priorities in Kotzebue, we expect this approach to be relevant to many communities in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions working to improve energy reliability, sustainability, and security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1973

K-LL Auger transition probabilities for elements with low and intermediate atomic numbers

Radiationless K-LL transition probabilities have been calculated nonrelativistically in j-j coupling and in intermediate coupling, without and with configuration interaction, for elements with atomic numbers from 13 to 47. The system is treated as a coupled two-hole configuration. The single-particle radial wave functions required in the calculation of radial matrix elements, and in the calculation of mixing coefficients in the intermediate-coupling scheme, were obtained from Green's atomic independent-particle model. Comparison with previous theoretical work and with experimental data is made. The effects of intermediate coupling, configuration interaction, and relativity are noted.

Chen, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1974

The meridional variation of the eddy heat fluxes by baroclinic waves and their parameterization

The meridional and vertical eddy fluxes of sensible heat produced by small-amplitude growing baroclinic waves are calculated using solutions to the two-level model with horizontal shear in the mean flow. The results show that the fluxes are primarily dependent on the local baroclinicity, i.e., the local value of the isentropic slopes in the mean state. Where the slope exceeds the critical value, the transports are poleward and upward; where the slope is less than the critical value, the transports are equatorward and downward. These results are used to improve an earlier parameterization of the tropospheric eddy fluxes of sensible heat based on Eady's model. Comparisons with observations show that the improved parameterization reproduces the observed magnitude and sign of the eddy fluxes and their vertical variations and seasonal changes, but the maximum in the poleward flux is too near the equator.

Stone, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Band models and correlations for infrared radiation

Absorption of infrared radiation by various line and band models are briefly reviewed. Narrow band model relations for absorptance are used to develop 'exact' formulations for total absorption by four wide band models. Application of a wide band model to a particular gas largely depends upon the spectroscopic characteristic of the absorbing-emitting molecule. Seven continuous correlations for the absorption of a wide band model are presented and each one of these is compared with the exact (numerical) solutions of the wide band models. Comparison of these results indicate the validity of a correlation for a particular radiative transfer application. In radiative transfer analyses, use of continuous correlations for total band absorptance provides flexibilities in various mathematical operations.

Tiwari, S. N.↗