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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling with diffusion models

Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a diffusion model that can draw global samples with the aim of approximating the posterior. We briefly review diffusion models in the context of image synthesis before providing a streamlined diffusion model tailored towards low-dimensional data arrays. We then present our adapted Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which combines local proposals with global proposals taken from a diffusion model that is regularly trained on the samples produced during the MCMC run. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the number of likelihood evaluations required to obtain an accurate representation of the Bayesian posterior across several analytic functions, as well as for a physical example based on a global fit of parton distribution functions. Our method is extensible to other MCMC techniques, and we briefly compare our method to similar approaches based on normalising flows. A code implementation can be found at https://github.com/NickHunt-Smith/MCMC-diffusion.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1981

Constraints on the origin and interior structure of the major planets

Fitting models to the external gravity field of the major planets (Uranus, Neptune, Jupiter, and Saturn), it is found that certain interior characteristics may be common to all four. For Uranus and Neptune, a model with a central iron-silicate core of approximately four earth masses, an 'ice' layer of H2O, CH4, and NH3 in solar proportions of about 10 earth masses, and an H2-He atmosphere of about 1-2 earth masses gives a good fit to available constraints, including heat flow measurements. Models of Jupiter and Saturn have cores very similar to those of Uranus and Neptune; the H2-He layer, however, is markedly more extensive. Modes of origin that are consistent with these features are discussed. Models of this type predict a considerable enrichment of deuterium relative to primordial solar abundances in Uranus and Neptune. Such enrichment is not observed in Uranus; implications are discussed for interior structure and origin.

Hubbard, W. B.↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Novel Eco-Biosorbent for Decontamination of Hazardous Dye from Aqueous Medium

A novel multi-component biosorbent consisted of pine, oak, hornbeam and fir sawdust biomasses was used to eliminate a common hazardous dye (Malachite green, MG) from aqueous solution. The influences of different parameters like solution pH, biosorbent amount, dye concentration and contact time on the removal process were thoroughly studied to evaluate optimum biosorption conditions. The pseudo-first-order, pseudo-second-order, Elovich, logistic and intra-particle diffusion models were used to describe the biosorption kinetics. Logistic model represented the kinetic experimental data well. The experimental equilibrium biosorption data were analyzed by Freundlich, Langmuir and Dubinin–Radushkevich isotherms. Freundlich model fitted better with the experimental data compared to others. In addition, the mean free energy obtained from Dubinin–Radushkevich model and the standard Gibbs free energy change indicated that the nature of biosorption was feasible, spontaneous and physical type. Overall, the novel eco-biosorbent could be used as a promising biosorbent to remove such unsafe dye molecules from aqueous environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1974

A line-blanketed model stellar atmosphere of Sirius

The method of artificial absorption edges is applied to a grid of model atmospheres to include the effects of hydrogen and metal line blanketing on the atmospheric structure. A best-fit model of Sirius is obtained which is free of the discrepancies inherent in unblanketed or partially blanketed models. All major spectral features calculated from the model agree with the corresponding observed features to within the observational uncertainty. Some additional properties of the models are discussed.

Fowler, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

IUE spectra and optical imaging of the oxygen-rich supernova remnant N132D

We present new optical Charge Coupled Devices (CCD) interference filter imagery and International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spectroscopy for the oxygen-rich supernova remnant N132D in the Large Magellanic Cloud. The optical images show a wealth of structure, and comparison with an archival Einstein High Resolution Imager (HRI) X-ray image shows that a few optical features have X-ray counter-parts, but in general there is little correlation between X-ray and optical features. The IUE spectra at two positions show strong lines of carbon and oxygen, with lines of neon, magnesium, silicon, and helium also present and variable in relative intensities. We use optical data for N132D from Dopita & Tuohy (1984) with our UV observations to compare with shock models (both with and without thermal conduction) and X-ray photoionization model calculations. While none of the model fits is entirely satisfactory, the generally weak UV emission relative to optical disagrees with the general character of shock model predictions and indicates that photoionization is the dominant excitation mechanism for the UV/optical emission. This conclusion is similar to what was found for E0102 - 7219, the oxygen-rich remnant in the Small Magellanic Cloud. We derive rough abundances for the emitting material in N132D, compare to stellar nucleosynthesis models, and discuss the implications for its precursor. A precursor near 20 solar mass is consistent with the data.

Blair, William P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

SEE Rate Estimation: Model Complexity and Data Requirements

Statistical Methods outlined in [Ladbury, TNS20071 can be generalized for Monte Carlo Rate Calculation Methods Two Monte Carlo Approaches: a) Rate based on vendor-supplied (or reverse-engineered) model SEE testing and statistical analysis performed to validate model; b) Rate calculated based on model fit to SEE data Statistical analysis very similar to case for CREME96. Information Theory allows simultaneous consideration of multiple models with different complexities: a) Model with lowest AIC usually has greatest predictive power; b) Model averaging using AIC weights may give better performance if several models have similar good performance; and c) Rates can be bounded for a given confidence level over multiple models, as well as over the parameter space of a model.

Ladbury, Ray↗
DOE OSTI2024

Age-specific case data reveal varying dengue transmission intensity in US states and territories

Dengue viruses (DENV) are endemic in the US territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, and the US Virgin Islands, with focal outbreaks also reported in the states of Florida and Hawaii. However, little is known about the intensity of dengue virus transmission over time and how dengue viruses have shaped the level of immunity in these populations, despite the importance of understanding how and why levels of immunity against dengue may change over time. These changes need to be considered when responding to future outbreaks and enacting dengue management strategies, such as guiding vaccine deployment. We used catalytic models fitted to case surveillance data stratified by age from the ArboNET national arboviral surveillance system to reconstruct the history of recent dengue virus transmission in Puerto Rico, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Florida, Hawaii, and Guam. We estimated average annual transmission intensity (i.e., force of infection) of DENV between 2010 and 2019 and the level of seroprevalence by age group in each population. We compared models and found that assuming all reported cases are secondary infections generally fit the surveillance data better than assuming all cases are primary infections. Using the secondary case model, we found that force of infection was highly heterogeneous between jurisdictions and over time within jurisdictions, ranging from 0.00008 (95% CrI: 0.00002–0.0004) in Florida to 0.08 (95% CrI: 0.044–0.14) in American Samoa during the 2010–2019 period. For early 2020, we estimated that seropositivity in 10 year-olds ranged from 0.09% (0.02%–0.54%) in Florida to 56.3% (43.7%–69.3%) in American Samoa. In the absence of serological data, age-specific case notification data collected through routine surveillance combined with mathematical modeling are powerful tools to monitor arbovirus circulation, estimate the level of population immunity, and design dengue management strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Nine-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Final Maps and Results

We present the final nine-year maps and basic results from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) mission. The full nine-year analysis of the time-ordered data provides updated characterizations and calibrations of the experiment. We also provide new nine-year full sky temperature maps that were processed to reduce the asymmetry of the effective beams. Temperature and polarization sky maps are examined to separate cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy from foreground emission, and both types of signals are analyzed in detail.We provide new point source catalogs as well as new diffuse and point source foreground masks. An updated template-removal process is used for cosmological analysis; new foreground fits are performed, and new foreground reduced are presented.We nowimplement an optimal C(exp -1)1 weighting to compute the temperature angular power spectrum. The WMAP mission has resulted in a highly constrained Lambda-CDM cosmological model with precise and accurate parameters in agreement with a host of other cosmological measurements. When WMAP data are combined with finer scale CMB, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble constant measurements, we find that big bang nucleosynthesis is well supported and there is no compelling evidence for a non-standard number of neutrino species (N(sub eff) = 3.84 +/- 0.40). The model fit also implies that the age of the universe is (sub 0) = 13.772 +/- 0.059 Gyr, and the fit Hubble constant is H(sub 0) = 69.32 +/- 0.80 km/s/ Mpc. Inflation is also supported: the fluctuations are adiabatic, with Gaussian random phases; the detection of a deviation of the scalar spectral index from unity, reported earlier by the WMAP team, now has high statistical significance (n(sub s) = 0.9608+/-0.0080); and the universe is close to flat/Euclidean (Omega = −0.0027+0.0039/−0.0038). Overall, the WMAP mission has resulted in a reduction of the cosmological parameter volume by a factor of 68,000 for the standard six-parameter Lambda-CDM model, based on CMB data alone. For a model including tensors, the allowed seven-parameter volume has been reduced by a factor 117,000. Other cosmological observations are in accord with the CMB predictions, and the combined data reduces the cosmological parameter volume even further.With no significant anomalies and an adequate goodness of fit, the inflationary flat Lambda-CDM model and its precise and accurate parameters rooted in WMAP data stands as the standard model of cosmology.

dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing the Roles of Biogeochemical Cycling and Ocean Circulation in Regulating Marine Copper Distributions

Copper (Cu) is a key micronutrient for marine phytoplankton. Its oceanic biogeochemical cycle has elicited considerable attention due to dissolved Cu exhibiting a unique linear profile with depth. Several processes have been proposed for explaining this behavior. Here, in this study, we characterize the relationships between the observed Cu, PO 4 3– , and Si on a global scale. We find that the depth profiles of Cu resemble those of Si more than of PO 4 3– in the global ocean. To understand their relationships, we couple the biogeochemical and internal circulation processes in a model, fitting optimal Cu:PO 4 3– uptake ratios and remineralization length-scales to replicate the marine Cu distributions. The modeling results suggest that Cu uptake needs in the Southern Ocean are substantially higher than those in other oceanic regions. In addition, our modeling results indicate a deep Cu remineralization in the global ocean. We offer an alternative mechanism that relies on biogeochemical cycling and internal circulation to produce the linear depth profiles of dissolved Cu. Our results suggest that diatoms are likely the major phytoplankton dominating oceanic Cu cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed Estimation of the Covariance Matrix for Various Neutron Spectra

A method for estimating covariance matrices which capture the uncertainties in calculated reactor spectra has been developed. This method is based on perturbing the parameters of a physics-based analytic model fitted to a calculated spectrum. The covariance of the perturbed analytic spectra imposes energy-dependent correlations due to the physics of the neutron processes in the reactor, i.e., a fission component, a 1/E down-scatting component, and a thermal Maxwellian component. An analytic model is developed which is shown to produce good fits to several reactor environments. The covariance matrices produced via this method are then used as the prior spectrum in STAYSL least squares spectrum adjustment where it is combined with integral metrics, such as activation measurements, to produce a high-fidelity neutron spectrum characterization. It was concluded that the methodology showed agreeable results for the ACRR free-field spectrum adjustment in STAYSL resulting in a 𝜒 2 value of 2.21 (per degree of freedom), but further work is needed to describe scattering and interface regions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Primary and Low-Strain Creep Models for 9Cr Tempered Martensitic Steels Including the Effects of Irradiation Softening and High-Helium Re-Hardening

Primary and low-strain creep represents a very important integrity challenge to large, complex structures, like fusion reactors. Here, we develop a predictive empirical primary creep model for 9Cr tempered martensitic steels (TMS), relating the applied stress (σ) to strain (ε), time (t) and temperature (T). The most accurate model is based on the applied σ normalized by the steel’s T-dependent ultimate tensile stress (σo), σ/σo(T). The model, fit to 17 heats of 9Cr TMS, yielded a σ root mean square error (RMSE) of ≈±11 MPa. Notably, the model also provides robust predictions for all the other TMS, when calibrated only by the fusion candidate Eurofer97 database. The model was extended to explore two possible effects of neutron irradiation, which produces both displacements per atom (dpa) and helium (He in atomic parts per million, appm) damage. These effects, which have not been previously considered, include: (a) softening, as a function of dpa, at T > ≈400–450 °C, in low-He fission environments (<1 He/dpa); and (b) subsequent re-hardening in high-He (≥10 He/dpa) fusion first-wall environments. The irradiation effect models predict (a) accelerated primary creep due to irradiation softening; and (b) fully arrested creep due to high-He re-hardening.

Alam, Md Ershadul (ORCID:0000000345968026)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: A study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this study, a Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm was used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The DREAM is a multi-chain method and uses differential evolution technique for chain movement, allowing it to be efficiently applied to high-dimensional problems, and can reliably estimate heavy-tailed and multimodal distributions that are difficult for single-chain schemes using a Gaussian proposal distribution. The results were evaluated against the popular Adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. DREAM indicated that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identified one mode. The calibration of DREAM resulted in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the AM. DREAM provides means for a good exploration of the posterior distributions of model parameters. Lastly, it reduces the risk of false convergence to a local optimum and potentially improves the predictive performance of the calibrated model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

[Re] Drivers of evapotranspiration from boreal wildfires

Computational reproducibility is a difficult challenge across science. I attempted to use R 3.6.1 to reproduce linear model fits, done originally using v2.6.0 for a 2009 paper on the drivers of large-scale forest evapotranspiration after wildfire. Model outputs were largely identical, aside from minor formatting changes, except for one–out of 12 total– regression in which the median residual value changed very slightly (in the sixth decimal place). I suggest that this essentially successful reproducibility is due to the relative simplicity of the script, its use of only base R functions, and R’s historically conservative approach to breaking changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1983

The soft X-ray spectrum of the Vela supernova remnant

An X-ray spectrum of a major fraction of the Vela supernova remnant has been obtained during scanning observations with the low energy proportional counters of the A-2 experiment, flown on HEAO 1. A deconvolution analysis of the data shows that the spectrum exhibits pronounced line emission near 0.6 keV due primarily to oxygen ions. Model fits using the Raymond-Smith hot plasma emission calculations indicate that the spectrum can be well described by a model involving two collisional equilibrium components with temperatures of 2.4 x 10 to the 6th and 1.9 x 10 to the 7th K, respectively. The abundances of oxygen and iron are found to be constrained to lie near their normal cosmic values.

Kahn, S. M.↗
DOE OSTI2018

A simplified regression building thermal modelling method for detached two-floor house in U.S.

The residential building sector accounts for approximately 37% of total U.S. electricity consumption. Within the residential building sector, heating and cooling is the main target for peak load shifting/reduction since it is the largest contributor to peak demand. In fact, the flexibility of residential HVAC loads can provide continuous variation of demand to provide grid services by varying their demand over a baseline. The performance of HVAC load control to provide grid services relies heavily on the accuracy of indoor air temperature or cooling/heating demand predictions and therefore the quality of building model. Besides forward models, popular building models are data-driven models which can be broken down into two categories: gray-box model, e.g. Resistance-Capacitance (RC) model and black-box model. RC model, also called lumped capacitance or network model, which is constituted with electrical analogue pattern with resistance (R) and capacitance (C). In general, RC models require considerable computation burden and long periods of data to train limited number of model coefficients. Black-box models have gained increasing interest due to their capability in analyzing large-scale data and flexibility in practical applications. But, the data-mining based (machine learning algorithms/techniques based) models tend to have invisible model structures which poses a problem when trying to use the model for optimal control or model predictive control of the HVAC system. Hence, there is a continuing need for efficient online system identification techniques, which can provide explicit parameters for the model. Traditional regression models fit well for this specific purpose. This paper presents an innovative way to predict average indoor temperature in separate floors of typical detached residential house. A rolling horizon linear regression model, which includes online adaptive correction component, is proposed to predict the temperature difference between downstairs and upstairs. A RC model is used to predict the overall mean indoor air temperature. Since the adaptive algorithm needs to be implemented online, a less computation-demanding polynomial fitting algorithm is adopted. This kind of fitting problem can be cast as linear regression problem with multiple variables, parameters of which can be efficiently obtained by well-known gradient descent method.The validation is conducted by comparing the predicted results with the results from data-mining based models as well as measured data from a real typical detached two-floor house. The results show that the developed method has satisfactory performance in predicting the building indoor temperature in 1st and 2nd floors.

Cui, Borui↗
DOE OSTI2016

Constrained partitioning of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration reduces model uncertainties of forest ecosystem carbon fluxes but not stocks

Abstract We partitioned the soil carbon dioxide flux ( R s ) into its respective autotrophic and heterotrophic components in a mature temperate‐boreal forest (Howland Forest in Maine, USA). We combined automated chamber measurements of R s with two different partitioning methods: (1) a classic root trenching experiment and (2) a radiocarbon ( 14 C) mass balance approach. With a model‐data fusion approach, we used these data to constrain a parsimonious ecosystem model (FöBAAR), and we investigated differences in modeled C fluxes and pools under both current and future climate scenarios. The trenching experiment indicated that heterotrophic respiration accounted for 53 ± 11% of total R s . In comparison, using the 14 C method, the heterotrophic contribution was 42 ± 9%. For both current and future model runs, incorporating the partitioning data as constraints substantially reduced the uncertainties of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration fluxes. Moreover, with best fit model parameters, the two partitioning methods yielded fundamentally different estimates of the relative contributions of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration to total R s , especially at the annual time scale. Surprisingly, however, modeled soil C and biomass C pool size trajectories did not differ significantly between model runs based on the different methods. Instead, model differences in partitioning were compensated for by changes in C allocation, resulting in similar, but still highly uncertain, soil C pool trajectories. Our findings show that incorporating constraints on the partitioning of R s can reduce model uncertainties of fluxes but not pools, and the results are sensitive to the partitioning method used.

Carbone, Mariah S.↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Eco-friendly Porous Poly(imide-ether)s for the Efficient Removal of Methylene Blue: Adsorption Kinetics, Isotherm, Thermodynamics and Reuse Performances

Poly(imide-ether)s (PIEs), which is porous in nature, was synthesized using aromatic diamines and dianhydrides via the solution polycondenzation reaction. In the process, PIEs was used as an adsorbent for the removal of basic dye [Methylene blue (MB)] from the aqueous solution. The structure and the thermal stability of PIEs were characterized by FT-IR, {sup 1}H-NMR, XRD and TG analysis, and the adsorption behaviour of the PIEs was confirmed using UV/Visible, FT-IR and SEM with EDX analysis. Batch adsorption experiments were carried out and their parameters (pH 6.95), initial MB concentration (200 mg/L), adsorbent dosage (50 mg), contact time (120 min) and temperature (28 °C) were optimized. The batch adsorption experimental data of the effect of contact time, initial MB concentration and temperature were evaluated using the adsorption kinetics (Pseudo-first order, Pseudo-second order, Elovich and Intra-particle diffusion kinetic), isotherm (Langmuir, Freundlich, Redlich–Peterson and Sips isotherms) and thermodynamic models respectively. In the study, adsorption of MB onto PIEs followed Pseudo-second kinetics and found to be the best fitting model based on the obtained experimental data. The homogeneity and heterogeneity surface nature of PIEs were elucidated with two and three isotherm parameters respectively. The adsorption thermodynamic study indicates that the adsorption of MB onto PIEs was endothermic and spontaneous in nature. The adsorbed PIEs solid waste was utilized to prepare the polymer composite, and its property was characterized. Graphical Abstract: .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Gas-phase dehydration of tetrahydrofurfuryl alcohol to dihydropyran over γ-Al 2 O 3

Gas-phase dehydration of tetrahydrofurfuryl alcohol (THFA) to 3,4-2H-dihydropyran (DHP) was investigated over solid acid catalysts. A γ-Al 2 O 3 catalyst resulted in 90% DHP yield from THFA. The γ-Al 2 O 3 deactivated due to solid coke formation but was nearly fully re-generable upon a high temperature calcination step (only 2.5% activity loss after 3 rd regeneration). The high catalytic activity and selectivity of γ-Al 2 O 3 was correlated to its high Lewis to Brønsted acid site ratio, as confirmed by ammonia temperature-programmed desorption (NH 3 -TPD) and isopropylamine temperature-programmed desorption (IPA-TPD). According to isotopic-labelling studies, a reaction mechanism was proposed in which THFA initially dehydrates into a carbenium intermediate prior to Wagner-Meerwien rearrangement into DHP. A kinetic model of THFA dehydration over γ-Al 2 O 3 was developed according to kinetic experimental data. The best-fit model implied the rate-determining step was the surface reaction of adsorbed THFA dissociating into adsorbed DHP and water.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗