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DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the partitioning of amphiphilic molecules and co-solvents in biomembranes

We report amphiphilic co-solvents can have a significant impact on the structure, organization and physical properties of lipid bilayers. Describing the mutual impact of partitioning and induced structure changes is therefore a crucial consideration for a range of topics such as anesthesia and other pharmacokinetic effects, as well as microbial solvent tolerance in the production of biofuels and other fermentation products, where molecules such as ethanol, butanol or acetic acid might be generated. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) is a key method for studying lipid and polymer bilayer structures, with many models for extracting bilayer structure (thickness, area per lipid etc.) from scattering data in use today. However, the molecular details of co-solvent partitioning are conflated with induced changes to bilayer structure, making interpretation and modeling of the scattering curves a challenge with the existing set of models. To address this, a model of a bilayer structure is presented which invokes a two-term partition constant accounting for the localization of the co-solvent within the bilayer. This model was validated using a series of SANS measurements of lipid vesicles in the presence of the co-solvent tetrahydrofuran (THF), showing several strategies of how to deploy the two-parameter partition constant model to describe scattering data and extract both structure and partitioning information from the data. Molecular dynamics simulations are then used to evaluate assumptions of the model, provide additional molecular scale details and illustrate its complementary nature to the data fitting procedure. This approach results in estimates of the partition coefficient for THF in 1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine at 35°C, along with an estimate of the fraction of THF residing in the hydrophobic core of the membrane. The authors envision that this model will be applicable to a wide range of other bilayer/amphiphile interactions and provide the associated code needed to implement this model as a fitting algorithm for scattering data in the SasView suite.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling

AI models are criticized as being black boxes, potentially subjecting climate science to greater uncertainty. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been proposed to probe AI models and increase trust. In this review and perspective paper, we suggest that, in addition to using XAI methods, AI researchers in climate science can learn from past successes in the development of physics-based dynamical climate models. Dynamical models are complex but have gained trust because their successes and failures can sometimes be attributed to specific components or sub-models, such as when model bias is explained by pointing to a particular parameterization. We propose three types of understanding as a basis to evaluate trust in dynamical and AI models alike: (1) instrumental understanding, which is obtained when a model has passed a functional test; (2) statistical understanding, obtained when researchers can make sense of the modeling results using statistical techniques to identify input–output relationships; and (3) component-level understanding, which refers to modelers' ability to point to specific model components or parts in the model architecture as the culprit for erratic model behaviors or as the crucial reason why the model functions well. We demonstrate how component-level understanding has been sought and achieved via climate model intercomparison projects over the past several decades. Such component-level understanding routinely leads to model improvements and may also serve as a template for thinking about AI-driven climate science. Currently, XAI methods can help explain the behaviors of AI models by focusing on the mapping between input and output, thereby increasing the statistical understanding of AI models. Yet, to further increase our understanding of AI models, we will have to build AI models that have interpretable components amenable to component-level understanding. We give recent examples from the AI climate science literature to highlight some recent, albeit limited, successes in achieving component-level understanding and thereby explaining model behavior. The merit of such interpretable AI models is that they serve as a stronger basis for trust in climate modeling and, by extension, downstream uses of climate model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine-learning enabled thermodynamic model for the design of new rare-earth compounds

We employ a descriptor based machine-learning approach to assess the effect of chemical alloying on formation-enthalpy of rare-earth intermetallics. Application of machine-learning approaches in rare-earth intermetallic design have been sparse due to limited availability of reliable datasets. In this work, we developed an ‘in-house’ rare-earth database with more than 600 + compounds, each entry was populated with formation enthalpy and related atomic features using high-throughput density-functional theory (DFT). The SISSO (sure independence screening and sparsifying operator) based machine-learning method with meaningful atomic features was used for training and testing the formation enthalpies of rare earth compounds. The complex lattice function coupled with the machine-learning model was used to explore the effect of transition metal alloying on the energy stability of Ce based cubic Laves phases (MgCu 2 type). The SISSO predictions show good agreement with high-fidelity DFT calculations and X-ray powder diffraction measurements. Our study provides quantitative guidance for compositional considerations within a machine-learning model and discovering new metastable materials. The electronic-structure of Ce-Fe-Cu based compound was also analyzed to get an in-depth understanding of the electronic origin of phase stability. The interpretable analytical models in combination with density-functional theory and experiments provide a fast and reliable design guide for discovering technologically useful materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for top-philic heavy resonances in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ $\text {TeV}$ with the ATLAS detector

A search for the associated production of a heavy resonance with a top-quark or a top-antitop-quark pair, and decaying into a $\overline{tt}$ pair is presented. The search uses the data recorded by the ATLAS detector in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . Events containing exactly one electron or muon are selected. The two hadronically decaying top quarks from the resonance decay are reconstructed using jets clustered with a large radius parameter of R = 1. The invariant mass spectrum of the two top quark candidates is used to search for a resonance signal in the range of 1.0 TeV to 3.2 TeV. The presence of a signal is examined using an approach with minimal model dependence followed by a model-dependent interpretation. No significant excess is observed over the background expectation. Upper limits on the production cross section times branching ratio at 95% confidence level are provided for a heavy Z' boson based on a simplified model, for Z' mass between 1.0 TeV and 3.0 TeV. The observed (expected) limits range from 21 (14) fb to 119 (86) fb depending on the choice of model parameters

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1962

A Preliminary Model of the Venus Atmosphere

“Standard’ and extreme model atmospheres of the planet Venus are calculated and presented, with temperature, density, and height given as functions of pressure, and with pressure, temperature, and density given as functions of height. Until more recent data are interpreted, the models are considered preliminary.

planetary entry↗

NASA NTRS2020

Neural Network Reflectance Prediction Model for Both Open Ocean and Coastal Waters

Remote sensing of global ocean color is a valuable tool for understanding the ecology and biogeochemistry of the worlds oceans, and provides critical input to our knowledge of the global carbon cycle and the impacts of climate change. Ocean polarized reflectance contains information about the constituents of the upper ocean euphotic zone, such as colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), sediments, phytoplankton, and pollutants. In order to retrieve the information on these constituents, remote sensing algorithms typically rely on radiative transfer models to interpret water color or remote-sensing reflectance; however, this can be resource-prohibitive for operational use due to the extensive CPU time involved in radiative transfer solutions. In this work, we report a fast model based on machine learning techniques, called Neural Network Reflectance Prediction Model (NNRPM), which can be used to predict ocean bidirectional polarized reflectance given inherent optical properties of ocean waters. This supervised model is trained using a large volume of data derived from radiative transfer simulations for coupled atmosphere and ocean systems using the successive order of scattering technique (SOS-CAOS). The performance of the model is validated against another large independent test dataset generated from SOS-CAOS. The model is able to predict both polarized and unpolarized reflectances with an absolute error (AE) less than 0.004 for 99% of test cases. We have also shown that the degree of linear polarization (DoLP) for unpolarized incident light can be predicted with an AE less than 0.002 for 99% of test cases. In general, the simulation time of SOS-CAOS depends on optical depth, and required accuracy. When comparing the average speeds of the NNRPM against the SOS-CAOS model for the same parameters, we see that the NNRPM is able to predict the Ocean BRDF 6000 times faster than SOS-CAOS. Both ultraviolet and visible wavelengths are included in the model to help differentiate between dissolved organic material and chlorophyll in the study of the open ocean and the coastal zone. The incorporation of this model into the retrieval algorithm will make the retrieval process more efficient, and thus applicable for operational use with global satellite observations.

radiative transfer↗

NASA NTRS1999

Interpretation of Lidar and Satellite Data Sets Using a Global Photochemical Model

A primary goal of the NASA Tropospheric Chemistry Program (TCP) is to "contribute substantially to scientific understanding of human impacts on the global troposphere". In order to analyze global or regional trends and factors of the troposphere chemistry, for example, its oxidation capacity or composition, a continuous global/regional data coverage as well as model simulations are needed. The Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE), a major component of the TCP, provides data vital to these questions via aircraft measurement of key trace chemical species in various remote regions of the world. Another component in NASA's effort are satellite projects for exploration of tropospheric chemistry and dynamics. A unique data product is the Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TOR) utilizing global tropospheric ozone data. Another key research tool are simulation studies of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics for the theoretical understanding of the atmosphere, the extrapolation of observed trends, and for sensitivity studies assessing a changing anthropogenic impact to air chemistry and climate. In the context with model simulations, field data derived from satellites or (airborne) field missions are needed for two purposes: 1. To initialize and validate model simulations, and 2., to interpret field data by comparison to model simulation results in order to analyze global or regional trends and deviations from standard tropospheric chemistry and transport conditions as defined by the simulations. Currently, there is neither a sufficient global data coverage available nor are existing well established global circulation models. The NASA LARC CTM model is currently not yet in a state to accomplish a sufficient tropospheric chemistry simulation, so that the current research under this cooperative agreement focuses on utilizing field data products for direct interpretation. They will be also available for model testing and a later interpretation with a finally utilized model.

Zenker, Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2026

Z α 2 correction to superallowed beta decays in effective field theory and implications for | V u d |

Superallowed ( 0 + → 0 + ) beta decays currently provide the most precise extraction of quark mixing in the Standard Model. Their interpretation as a measurement of | V u d | relies on a reliable first-principles computation of QED radiative corrections expressed as a series in Z α and α . In this work, we provide the first model-independent result for two-loop, O ( Z α 2 ) , long-distance radiative corrections where the nuclei are treated as heavy pointlike particles. We use renormalization group analysis to obtain new results at O ( Z α 3 ) for the coefficient of double logarithms in the ratio of the maximal beta energy to the inverse nuclear size, E m / R - 1 . We use the Kinoshita-Lee-Nauenberg theorem to obtain new results at O ( Z 2 α 3 ) for the coefficient of logarithms in the ratio of maximal beta energy to the electron mass, log ( 2 E m / m ) . We identify a structure-dependent, and, therefore, short-distance, contribution to the traditional Z α 2 correction that should be revisited. We provide the first comprehensive update to the long-distance corrections in almost 40 years and comment on the impact of our findings for extractions of | V u d | . We find that shifts in the long-distance corrections are 2.5 × larger than past estimates of their uncertainty, 1.5 × larger than the statistical uncertainty from the combined fit of superallowed decays, and about 1 / 2 the size of estimated systematic error, which stems dominantly from nuclear structure effects.

Cao, Zehua [Kentucky U.] (ORCID:0009000354256423)↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Perspective on Traditional and Data Driven Electrochemical Modeling and Analysis

To understand the behavior of electrochemical systems, we need to reduce the dimensionality of the measured current-voltage-time (I-V-t) data by fitting models, thus enabling us to analyze and compare the governing physics. Traditionally, the process for this is an 'expert first' approach: defining the model and its explicit assumptions based on inductive reasoning or empirical observation, fitting small portions of the I-V-t data where assumptions are most valid or carefully designing experiments to enforce key assumptions, and then interpreting the model parameters. However, modern data-driven methods enable a new paradigm: a 'data first' approach, where the latent behaviors governing the system's measured response are identified directly using machine-learning models that optimize both model structure and parameters from the I-V-t data, guaranteeing that the learned model explains as much of the observed system response as possible. After model identification, the model can then be interrogated by an expert to connect observed behaviors with underlying physics. This talk will review several different types of electrochemical analysis (electrochemical impedance, differential voltage-capacity, electrochemical kinetics) and compare the traditional and data-driven methods for analyzing the data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learned Hückel Theory: Interfacing Physics and Deep Neural Networks

The Hückel Hamiltonian is an incredibly simple tight-binding model known for its ability to capture qualitative physics phenomena arising from electron interactions in molecules and materials. Part of its simplicity arises from using only two types of empirically fit physics-motivated parameters: the first describes the orbital energies on each atom and the second describes electronic interactions and bonding between atoms. By replacing these empirical parameters with machine-learned dynamic values, we vastly increase the accuracy of the extended Hückel model. The dynamic values are generated with a deep neural network, which is trained to reproduce orbital energies and densities derived from density functional theory. The resulting model retains interpretability, while the deep neural network parameterization is smooth and accurate and reproduces insightful features of the original empirical parameterization. Altogether, this work shows the promise of utilizing machine learning to formulate simple, accurate, and dynamically parameterized physics models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Short-term traffic state prediction from latent structures: Accuracy vs. efficiency

Recently, deep learning models have shown promising performances in many research areas, including traffic states prediction, due to their ability to model complex nonlinear relationships. However, deep learning models also have drawbacks that make them less preferable for certain short-term traffic prediction applications. For example, they require a large amount of data for model training, which is also computationally expensive. Moreover, deep learning models lack interpretability of the results. This paper develops a short-term traffic states forecasting algorithm based on partial least square (PLS) to help enhance real-time decision-making and build better insights into traffic data. The proposed model is capable of predicting short-term traffic states accurately and efficiently by capturing dominant spatiotemporal features and day-to-day variations from collinear and correlated traffic data. Three case studies are developed to demonstrate the proposed model in short-term traffic prediction applications.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance of Heterogeneous Sulfate Aerosol Formation Mechanisms Against Aircraft and Ground-Based Observations in Seoul, South Korea

Haze events are a common occurrence in East Asia, where local meteorology combines with anthropogenic emissions under certain conditions to create rapid increases in secondary aerosol. Often these events are driven by rapid production of secondary sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SIA) aerosol. Models have typically included simple parameterizations of the production of sulfate during these events which vary widely in their magnitude. There are a range of different mechanistic descriptions of the chemical processes occurring during these events in large part due to poor constraints on aerosol pH and transition metal content, both of which are important to determining the key pathway(s) driving aerosol production. Here, we use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to interpret detailed ground and aircraft observations from May and June 2016 during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field study to evaluate the mechanistic pathways governing sulfate production during a haze event. We apply our model of sulfate production mechanisms to ground-based speciated aerosol measurements in winter, summer, and fall in Seoul.

Katherine R Travis↗

NASA NTRS1991

AIRSAR observations of the Gulf Stream with interpretation from sea truth and modeling

On 20 Jul., JPL/DC-8 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) participated in the 17-21 Jul. 1990 NRL Gulf Stream (GS) experiment in preparation for SIR-C missions in 1993, 1994, and 1996 for calibration purposes and to check modes and techniques for operation at our experimental site off the east coast of the US. During this experiment, coordinated and near simultaneous measurements were performed from ship (R/V Cape Henlopen) and other aircraft (NADC/P-3 and NRL/P-3) to address scientific questions relating to the origin of 'slick-like' features observed by Scully-Power, the refraction and modulation of waves by variable currents, the effect of current and thermal fronts on radar imagery signatures and the modification of Kelvin ship wakes by fronts. The JPL/DC-8 and NADC/P-3 SAR's are fully polarimetric systems. Their composite frequency range varies between P- and X-band. We describe in detail the Airborne SAR (AIRSAR) participation in the Jul. 1990 GS experiment and present preliminary results of the ongoing analysis and interpretation of the radar imagery in the context of ground truth, other remote measurements, and modeling efforts.

Valenzuela, G. R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards physics-informed explainable machine learning and causal models for materials research

From emergent material descriptions to estimation of properties stemming from structures to optimization of process parameters for achieving best performance – all key facets of materials science and related fields have experienced tremendous growth with the introduction of data-driven models. This gradual progression goes at par with developments of machine learning workflows, from purely data-driven shallow models to those that are well-capable in encoding more complex graphs, symbolic representations, invariances, and positional embeddings. Furthermore, this perspective aims at summarizing strategic aspects of such transitions while providing insights into the requirements of bringing in explainable, interpretable predictive models, and causal learning to aid in materials design and discovery. Although the focus remains on a variety of functional materials by providing a handful of case studies, the applications of such integrated methodologies are universal to facilitate fundamental understandings of materials physics while enabling autonomous experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) System: Design, Theory, and Implementation

Abstract The increasing complexity of Earth system models has inspired efforts to quantitatively assess model fidelity through rigorous comparison with best available measurements and observational data products. Earth system models exhibit a high degree of spread in predictions of land biogeochemistry, biogeophysics, and hydrology, which are sensitive to forcing from other model components. Based on insights from prior land model evaluation studies and community workshops, the authors developed an open source model benchmarking software package that generates graphical diagnostics and scores model performance in support of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Employing a suite of in situ, remote sensing, and reanalysis data sets, the ILAMB package performs comprehensive model assessment across a wide range of land variables and generates a hierarchical set of web pages containing statistical analyses and figures designed to provide the user insights into strengths and weaknesses of multiple models or model versions. Described here is the benchmarking philosophy and mathematical methodology embodied in the most recent implementation of the ILAMB package. Comparison methods unique to a few specific data sets are presented, and guidelines for configuring an ILAMB analysis and interpreting resulting model performance scores are discussed. ILAMB is being adopted by modeling teams and centers during model development and for model intercomparison projects, and community engagement is sought for extending evaluation metrics and adding new observational data sets to the benchmarking framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Parameter Estimation for Electrode Degradation: Learning in the Face of Model-Experiment Discrepancies

Use of physics-based models to interpret battery degradation data over the course of cycling can provide deeper physical insight into the internal states of the system and how they evolve. We present a neural network trained on simulations generated by a previously published physics-based model for a lithium trivanadate (LVO) cathode to estimate parameters that evolve over the course of cycling. We focus on the robustness of the neural network through two case studies that probe different kinds of discrepancies between model and experiment: nonideal data and imperfect model. In the former, the experimental protocols do not meet the assumption made in the training data generated by the physics-based model, while in the latter, the physics-based model fails to describe all of the measured cathode behavior even under ideal conditions. When there is total model-experiment agreement, a neural network estimates parameters with improved accuracy compared to a maximum likelihood analysis using the same set of simulations. However, in both types of model-experiment discrepancy, the neural network returned biased parameter estimates. We introduce a data augmentation procedure into the neural network training to mitigate these effects and improve robustness, and employ it to estimate parameters for a cycling LVO cathode.

Mayilvahanan, Karthik S. (ORCID:0000000316282332)↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-throughput phase-field simulations and machine learning of resistive switching in resistive random-access memory

Metal oxide-based Resistive Random-Access Memory (RRAM) exhibits multiple resistance states, arising from the activation/deactivation of a conductive filament (CF) inside a switching layer. Understanding CF formation kinetics is critical to achieving optimal functionality of RRAM. Here a phase-field model is developed, based on materials properties determined by ab initio calculations, to investigate the role of electrical bias, heat transport and defect-induced Vegard strain in the resistive switching behavior, using MO 2- x systems such as HfO 2- x as a prototypical model system. It successfully captures the CF formation and resultant bipolar resistive switching characteristics. High-throughput simulations are performed for RRAMs with different material parameters to establish a dataset, based on which a compressed-sensing machine learning is conducted to derive interpretable analytical models for device performance (current on/off ratio and switching time) metrics in terms of key material parameters (electrical and thermal conductivities, Vegard strain coefficients). These analytical models reveal that optimal performance (i.e., high current on/off ratio and low switching time) can be achieved in materials with a low Lorenz number, a fundamental material constant. This work provides a fundamental understanding to the resistive switching in RRAM and demonstrates a computational data-driven methodology of materials selection for improved RRAM performance, which can also be applied to other electro-thermo-mechanical systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗