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LEAD is a suite of scripts to enable rapid estimation of model parameters for damage models for ductile materials using machine learning. In its current version, the only supported damage model is TEPLA, though others are planned. The data we train on are comprised of free surface velocity data as well as porosity data. Some details about our method can be found in the preprint LA-UR-23-20468 (arxiv.org/abs/2301.07790)
During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.
This package contains field data, modeling files, and scripts supporting the investigation of the drivers of streamflow intermittency in a forested catchment. It includes the field data collected from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys, ground penetrating radar (GPR), continuous self-potential (SP) monitoring, electromagnetic (EM) imaging, groundwater and stilling well. In addition, it contains the data and results of the coupled water- and electrical-flow model developed using the COMSOL Multiphysics and Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), as well as software files and Jupyter notebooks used to process the data and generate figures in the manuscript submitted for peer review. The data archive is organized in the following directories: 1) Climate Includes hourly precipitation and daily evapotranspiration time series (2024 – 2025) provided as CSV files, alongside a text file detailing dataset units. 2) Coupled_model Contains two subfolders: Synthetic and Field_Application subfolder. Synthetic subfolder contains the ATS XML input script (can be opened using any code editor) for the four synthetic hydrological cases tested (Connected and gaining, Connected and losing, Disconnected and losing, and dry stream). It also includes other experimental cases to test the influence of precipitation and concentration gradient. For each synthetic case, the flow model simulation is executed using the ATS XML scripts and the included Python script (generate_data_set.py) to convert ATS output to COMSOL-ready input. COMSOL Multiphysics template (.mph can be opened with the commercial software COMSOL and requires a license) is executed using the ATS output data to simulate the potential field. It also includes the Synthetic_model_plot.ipynb (can be opened using any code editor) to visualize the SP result and generate manuscript figures. The data subfolder contains mesh files to run both the ATS (.exo and .stl files can be viewed using Paraview; .h5 files can be opened using HDFView software and h5py Python package) and COMSOL models. Field_Application subfolder contains two subfolders: ES_MDA_inversion and Final_Model. ES_MDA_inversion contains the Python script (.py can be opened using any code editor) and SP observation data used to run the Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) inversion sequence to get the optimal model parameters. The Final_model subfolder contains the ATS XML input scripts, data files, output data for the two SP sites. The same workflow steps outlined for the Synthetic subfolder apply here. It also contains the Jupyter notebook (Plot_final_calib.ipynb) to visualize the results of the modeled SP, stream-groundwater exchange and moisture content. 3) Discharge Includes the electrical conductivity (EC) time series (provided as CSV files) from salt slug injections. It also includes the Jupyter notebook (Discharge_process.ipynyb) used to estimate discharge. All discharge measurements collated into rating_curve_processed.csv 4) EM Contains the CSV file of the EM data from the DUALEM-42, including spatial coordinates (x, y, z), apparent conductivity, and in-phase measurements at 2 m coil separations for horizontal coplanar (HCP) and perpendicular (PRP) geometries. 5) ERT Contains raw resistivity data (provided as CSV files), spatial location of each of the electrodes (provided as CSV files), and files used for the resistivity inversion (.resipy can be opened with the open-source ResIPy software). 6) GPR Includes GPR field datasets collected at 100 MHz and 250 MHz antenna frequencies, along with the processing/interpretation project file (GPR_process.gpz can be viewed using EKKO_Project 6, a commercial software by Sensors & Software that requires a license). 7) Slug_test Includes the slug test data at all the groundwater wells provided as CSV files, as well as the Jupyter notebook (Slug_test.ipynb) for calculating hydraulic conductivity. 8) SP Contains the SP data collected in field at the two SP sites (one in the perennial reach and the other in the intermittent reach), provided as DAT files. 9) Well_data Contains two subfolders: 1) Raw, which provides unprocessed pressure, electrical conductivity and temperature timeseries downloaded from the loggers in all the groundwater and stilling wells, and 2) Processed, which contains sorted, QA/QC timeseries data for each well. The data archive also contains data_process.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook used for field data analysis and generating figures (plotting well, SP, climate, and discharge data, as well as calculating head gradient at sites with nested groundwater wells). It also includes DTW.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook containing the code for the dynamic time warping (DTW) with sliding window to evaluate SP signal synchronicity.
An adaptive modeling technique is examined by which controllers can be synthesized to provide corrective dynamics to a human operator's mathematical model in closed loop control systems. The technique utilizes a class of Liapunov functions formulated for this purpose, Liapunov's stability criterion and a model-reference system configuration. The Liapunov function is formulated to posses variable characteristics to take into consideration the identification dynamics. The time derivative of the Liapunov function generate the identification and control laws for the mathematical model system. These laws permit the realization of a controller which updates the human operator's mathematical model parameters so that model and human operator produce the same response when subjected to the same stimulus. A very useful feature is the development of a digital computer program which is easily implemented and modified concurrent with experimentation. The program permits the modeling process to interact with the experimentation process in a mutually beneficial way.
The space station will be deployed and assembled in low earth orbit with multiple Shuttle trips. Several construction phases will be required involving both ground and in-orbit operations. In this paper, the construction process of a four-panel space station and its control problems are discussed. The applicability of a direct model reference adaptive control technique with plant augmentation is investigated. Control during several key assembly operation periods has been simulated. These include Shuttle docking with initial-phase station, habitat module mating, and Shuttle docking with operational station. High rate of convergence and robust performance have been observed for all the simulated cases even with 40 percent model parameter errors and model truncations and more than 100 percent instant mass property variations. Controller with severe gain saturations is also discussed and results show only slight performance deterioration.
Accurate non-invasive mechanical measurement of long bones is made difficult by the masking effect of surrounding soft tissues. Mechanical response tissue analysis (MRTA) offers a method for separating the effects of the soft tissue and bone; however, a direct validation has been lacking. A theoretical analysis of wave propagation through the compressed tissue revealed a strong mass effect dependent on the relative accelerations of the probe and bone. The previous mathematical model of the bone and overlying tissue system was reconfigured to incorporate the theoretical finding. This newer model (six-parameter) was used to interpret results using MRTA to determine bone cross-sectional bending stiffness, EI(sub MRTA). The relationship between EI(sub MRTA) and theoretical EI values for padded aluminum rods was R(sup 2) = 0.999. A biological validation followed using monkey tibias. Each bone was tested in vivo with the MRTA instrument. Postmortem, the same tibias were excised and tested to failure in three-point bending to determine EI(sub 3-PT) and maximum load. Diaphyseal bone mineral density (BMD) measurements were also made. The relationship between EI(sub 3-PT) and in vivo EI(sub MRTA) using the six-parameter model is strong (R(sup 2) = 0.947) and better than that using the older model (R(sup 2) = 0.645). EI(sub MRTA) and BMD are also highly correlated (R(sup 2) = 0.853). MRTA measurements in vivo and BMD ex vivo are both good predictors of scaled maximum strength (R(sup 2) = 0.915 and R(sup 2) = 0.894, respectively). This is the first biological validation of a non- invasive mechanical measurement of bone by comparison to actual values. The MRTA technique has potential clinical value for assessing long-bone mechanical properties.
Accurate non-invasive mechanical measurement of long bones is made difficult by the masking effect of surrounding soft tissues. Mechanical Response Tissue Analysis (MRTA) offers a method for separating the effects of the soft tissue and bone; however, a direct validation has been lacking. A theoretical analysis of wave propagation through the compressed tissue revealed a strong mass effect dependent on the relative accelerations of the probe and bone. The previous mathematical model of the bone and overlying tissue system was reconfigured to incorporate the theoretical finding. This newer model (six-parameter) was used to interpret results using MRTA to determine bone cross-sectional bending stiffness, EI(sub MRTA). The relationship between EI(MRTA) and theoretical EI values for padded aluminum rods was R(exp 2) = 0.999. A biological validation followed using monkey tibias. Each bone was tested in vivo with the MRTA instrument. Postmortem, the same tibias were excised and tested to failure in three-point bending to determine EI(sub 3-PT) and maximum load. Diaphyseal Bone Mineral Density (BMD) measurements were also made. The relationship between E(sub 3-PT) and in vivo EI(sub MRTA) using the six-parameter model is strong (R(exp 2) = 0.947) and better than that using the older model (R(exp 2) = 0.645). EI(MRTA) and BMD are also highly correlated (R(exp 2) = 0.853). MRTA measurements in vivo and BMD ex vivo are both good predictors of scaled maximum strength (R(exp 2) = 0.915 and R(exp 2) = 0.894, respectively). This is the first biological validation of a non-invasive mechanical measurement of bone by comparison to actual values. The MRTA technique has potential clinical value for assessing long-bone mechanical properties.
The Stirling Convertor System Dynamic Model developed at NASA Glenn Research Center is a software model developed from first principles that includes the mechanical and mounting dynamics, the thermodynamics, the linear alternator, and the controller of a free-piston Stirling power convertor, along with the end user load. As such it represents the first detailed modeling tool for fully integrated Stirling convertor-based power systems. The thermodynamics of the model were originally a form of the isothermal Stirling cycle. In some situations it may be desirable to improve the accuracy of the Stirling cycle portion of the model. An option under consideration is to enhance the SDM thermodynamics by coupling the model with Gedeon Associates Sage simulation code. The result will be a model that gives a more accurate prediction of the performance and dynamics of the free-piston Stirling convertor. A method of integrating the Sage simulation code with the System Dynamic Model is described. Results of SDM and Sage simulation are compared to test data. Model parameter estimation and model validation are discussed.
Current ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), are predicted to discover thousands of galaxy-scale strong lenses, while future surveys, such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will increase that number by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. To leverage the increased statistical power of the lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys, automated lens analysis techniques are necessary. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate the successful application of Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lens mass model for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We compare our NPE constraints to a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) and find that it outperforms the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.
We test a 3+1 model with the MicroBooNE data using a 1µ1p selection developed using Deep-Learning-based reconstruction. In order to test this model we apply a muon neutrino disappearance effect to the selection, and search across a grid of oscillation model parameters using a Feldman Cousins technique. We determine MicroBooNE’s sensitivity across this model parameter space, and perform several validation studies to test this study’s robustness. Finally, we examine the allowed and excluded regions per MicroBooNE’s data at 90% confidence, using a data set corresponding to 6.67 × 10 20 protons on target. The null model remains allowed, and several of the high-disappearance models are excluded.
We test a 3+1 model with the MicroBooNE data using a 1µ1p selection developed using Deep-Learning-based reconstruction. In order to test this model we apply a muon neutrino disappearance effect to the selection, and search across a grid of oscillation model parameters using a Feldman Cousins technique. We determine MicroBooNE’s sensitivity across this model parameter space, and perform several validation studies to test this study’s robustness. Finally, we examine the allowed and excluded regions per MicroBooNE’s data at 90% confidence, using a data set corresponding to 6.67 × 10 20 protons on target. The null model remains allowed, and several of the high-disappearance models are excluded.
A new reactive flow model is presented for triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB)-based plastic bonded explosives, applicable to shock initiation and steady detonation problems of differing initial temperature. Temperature disequilibrium is assumed between unreacted explosive, material in the vicinity of compressed defects (called hot spots), and reaction products. The model incorporates temperature-dependent decomposition reaction rates. Particularly, Arrhenius model parameters were derived from quantum-based molecular dynamics simulations of TATB decomposition. Further, a model of detonation carbon aggregation is incorporated, describing the slow release of energy inherent to detonation in TATB-based materials. Model parameters were calibrated against gas gun shock initiation experiments and steady detonation rate stick tests. The predictive ability of the model in the shock initiation regime is tested against recent thin pulse experiments. The model is found to perform equally well in predicting the size-effect curve of ambient, cold, and hot rate sticks. The present work demonstrates the viability of incorporating results from subscale simulations into a continuum-scale reactive flow model.
This report is a revision of the document of the same title (1986), dated August 1, which it supersedes. Model changes during 1986 and 1987 included corrections for antenna feed rotation, refraction in modelling antenna axis offsets, and an option to employ improved values of the semiannual and annual nutation amplitudes. Partial derivatives of the observables with respect to an additional parameter (surface temperature) are now available. New versions of two figures representing the geometric delay are incorporated. The expressions for the partial derivatives with respect to the nutation parameters have been corrected to include contributions from the dependence of UTI on nutation. The authors hope to publish revisions of this document in the future, as modeling improvements warrant.
Microwave modeling of vegetated terrain was investigated. The purpose was to: (1) use discrete scatter theory to model vegetation (crops and forested regions) in microwave region; (2) develop models for scatterers and ground; (3) multiple scattering analysis relate model parameters to average scattered power; and (4) develop inversion techniques to remotely determine model parameters.
Prompted by the detection of stratospheric cloud layers by Cassini's Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS; see Anderson, C.M., Samuelson, R.E. [2011]. Icarus 212, 762-778), we have re-examined the observations made by the Descent Imager/Spectral Radiometer (DISR) in the atmosphere of Titan together with two constraints from measurements made outside the atmosphere. No evidence of thin layers (<1 km) in the DISR image data sets is seen beyond the three previously reported layers at 21 km, 11 km, and 7 km by Karkoschka and Tomasko (Karkoschka, E., Tomasko, M.G. [2009]. Icarus 199, 442-448). On the other hand, there is evidence of a thicker layer centered at about 55 km. A rise in radiance gradients in the Downward-Looking Visible Spectrometer (DLVS) data below 55 km indicates an increase in the volume extinction coefficient near this altitude. To fit the geometric albedo measured from outside the atmosphere the decrease in the single scattering albedo of Titan's aerosols at high altitudes, noted in earlier studies of DISR data, must continue to much higher altitudes. The altitude of Titan's limb as a function of wavelength requires that the scale height of the aerosols decrease with altitude from the 65 km value seen in the DISR observations below 140 km to the 45 km value at higher altitudes. We compared the variation of radiance with nadir angle observed in the DISR images to improve our aerosol model. Our new aerosol model fits the altitude and wavelength variations of the observations at small and intermediate nadir angles but not for large nadir angles, indicating an effect that is not reproduced by our radiative transfer model. The volume extinction profiles are modeled by continuous functions except near the enhancement level near 55 km altitude. The wavelength dependence of the extinction optical depth is similar to earlier results at wavelengths from 500 to 700 nm, but is smaller at shorter wavelengths and larger toward longer wavelengths. A Hapke-like model is used for the ground reflectivity, and the variation of the Hapke single scattering albedo with wavelength is given. Fits to the visible spectrometers looking upward and downward are achieved except in the methane bands longward of 720 nm. This is possibly due to uncertainties in extrapolation of laboratory measurements from 1 km-am paths to much longer paths at lower pressures. It could also be due to changes in the single scattering phase functions at low altitudes, which strongly affect the path length through methane that the photons travel. We demonstrate the effects on the model fits by varying each model parameter individually in order to illustrate the sensitivity of our determination of each model parameter.
Protective vaccines and reliable diagnostics are essential tools for controlling viral diseases. However, the efficacy of these tools can be diminished by mutations in viral genomes. The delay between the emergence of new viral strains and the redesign of vaccines and diagnostics allows for continued viral transmission. Is it possible to address this challenge by computationally predicting viral genome sequence evolution? Can we “future-proof” vaccines and diagnostics by targeting both current and anticipated future sequence variants? While predicting viral evolution is still an unsolved, “grand challenge” problem in biology, the large, and rapidly growing, number of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences provide an opportunity to quantify the ability of machine learning to predict viral genome sequence evolution. Towards this end, we have developed a simple computational model for predicting viral evolution at the level of individual nucleotides. The key metric for quantifying the per-base, prediction accuracy for viral evolution is the Mann-Whitney U statistic (or, equivalently, the area under the receiver operator curve). Since the Mann-Whitney U statistic is not a differentiable function, existing deep leaning packages (like Pytorch and Keras/TensorFlow) are not useful, as they require that the accuracy metric/objective function be analytically differentiable with respect to the model parameters. To overcome this challenge, we have implemented custom software, “FutureTense”, that can train a machine learning model by maximizing the non-differentiable Mann-Whitney U statistic. This software trains a machine learning model by exploring along the direction of the discrete gradient of the Mann-Whitney U statistic in the model parameter space. Parallel computing and genome sequence-specific optimizations are used to accelerate model training. The resulting machine learning model learns the observed high C->U mutation rates in the SARS-CoV-2 genome (which are potentially induced by host defenses) and provides prediction accuracies that are significantly better than one would expect from random chance. While predicting viral evolution is still quite far from a solved problem, the surprising performance of this simple model gives hope that the accuracy of predicting viral genome evolution can be further increased by more sophisticated approaches.
Demanding aerodynamic modelling requirements for military and civilian aircraft have motivated researchers to improve computational and experimental techniques and to pursue closer collaboration in these areas. Model identification and validation techniques are key components for this research. This paper presents mathematical model structures and identification techniques that have been used successfully to model more general aerodynamic behaviours in single-degree-of-freedom dynamic testing. Model parameters, characterizing aerodynamic properties, are estimated using linear and nonlinear regression methods in both time and frequency domains. Steps in identification including model structure determination, parameter estimation, and model validation, are addressed in this paper with examples using data from one-degree-of-freedom dynamic wind tunnel and water tunnel experiments. These techniques offer a methodology for expanding the utility of computational methods in application to flight dynamics, stability, and control problems. Since flight test is not always an option for early model validation, time history comparisons are commonly made between computational and experimental results and model adequacy is inferred by corroborating results. An extension is offered to this conventional approach where more general model parameter estimates and their standard errors are compared.
Reactive transport modeling is an essential tool to simulate complex geochemical reactions in porous media that can impact formation properties including porosity and permeability. However, simulating these reactions is challenging due to uncertainties in model parameters, particularly mineral surface areas. Imaging has emerged as a powerful means of estimating model parameters including porosity and mineral abundance, accessibility and accessible surface area. However, these parameters, particularly mineral accessible surface area, vary with image resolution. This work aims to enhance understanding of the impact of image resolution and other means of estimating mineral reactive surface area on simulated mineral reactions and reaction rates. Mineral surface areas calculated from images with resolutions of 0.34 μm and 5.71 μm were used to simulate mineral reactions in the context of geologic CO 2 sequestration in the Paluxy formation at the continuum scale. Additional simulations were carried out using BET surface areas collected from the literature and geometric surface areas. Simulations were run for 7300 days and mineral volume fractions and effluent ion concentrations tracked and compared. Variations in mineral surface areas measured from images are within 1 order of magnitude and yield similar simulation results, indicating the impact of image resolution on simulated reactions and reaction rates is minimum for the resolutions and sample considered. In comparison, surface areas obtained from BET and geometric approaches are 1–4 orders of magnitude higher than image-obtained surface areas and result in greater simulated reaction rates and extents. Minerals with high reaction rates (calcite and siderite) are most impacted by surface area values at short times where simulated mineral volume fractions at longer times agree relatively well, even for simulations with several orders of magnitude variation in surface area. Phases with lower reaction rates, such as K-feldspar and muscovite, are predominantly impacted over longer times where variations in surface areas impact reaction extents and porosity evolution. Overall, variations in surface areas due to image resolution are small and result in little variation in simulated reactions and reaction rates while there are significant variations in simulation results when other surface area estimates are used. These variations, however, depend on the reactivity of the mineral phase where surface areas of fast-reacting phases largely impact simulations at short (hours to days) timescales and surface areas of slower-reactive phases impact longer term simulations (years).