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NASA NTRS1997

Dissecting global diversity patterns: examples from the Ordovician Radiation

Although the history of life has been characterized by intermittent episodes of radiation that can be recognized in global compilations of biodiversity, it does not necessarily follow that these episodes are caused by processes that occurred uniformly around the world. Major diversity increases could be generated by the cumulative effects of different mechanisms operating simultaneously at several geographic or environmental scales. The purpose of this review is to describe ongoing research on the manifestations, at several scales, of the Ordovician Radiation, which was among the most extensive intervals of diversification in the history of life. Through much of the period, diversity was concentrated most heavily near regions of active mountain building and volcanism; differences in diversity patterns from continent to continent, and among regions within continents, reflect this overprint. While this suggests a linkage of the Radiation and tectonic activity, this is by no means the only mediating agent. Outcrop-based research in North America has demonstrated that tectonic activity was detrimental to some biotic elements, in contrast to its effects on other organisms. Moreover, in the Great Basin of North America where the local stratigraphic record is of particularly high quality, biotic transitions characteristic of the period occurred far more rapidly than observed in global compilations of diversity, suggesting that the global rate of transition may represent the aggregate sum of transitions that occurred abruptly, but at different times, around the world. Finally, it has been demonstrated that, in concert with an increase in average age, the environmental and geographic ranges of Ordovician genera both increased significantly through the period, indicating a role for intrinsic factors in producing Ordovician biotic patterns.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2012

Advanced Technology Large-Aperture Space Telescope: Science Drivers and Technology Developments

The Advanced Technology Large-Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) is a concept for an 8- to 16-m ultraviolet optical near Infrared space observatory for launch in the 2025 to 2030 era. ATLAST will allow astronomers to answer fundamental questions at the forefront of modern astrophysics, including: Is there life elsewhere in the Galaxy? We present a range of science drivers and the resulting performance requirements for ATLAST (8- to 16-marcsec angular resolution, diffraction limited imaging at 0.5 micron wavelength, minimum collecting area of 45 sq m, high sensitivity to light wavelengths from 0.1 to 2.4 micron, high stability in wavefront sensing and control). We also discuss the priorities for technology development needed to enable the construction of ATLAST for a cost that is comparable to that of current generation observatory-class space missions.

Postman, Marc↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Primary Flight Display and Its Pathway Guidance: Workload, Performance, and Situation Awareness

In two experiments carried out in a high fidelity general aviation flight simulator, 42 instrument rated pilots flew a pathway-in-the-sky (tunnel) display through a series of multi-leg curved stepdown approaches through mountainous terrain. Both experiments examined how properties of the tunnel influenced flight path tracking performance, traffic awareness, terrain awareness and workload (assessed both by subjective and secondary task performance measures). Experiment 1, flown in simulated VMC, compared high and low intensity tunnels, with a less cluttered follow-me-airplane (FMA). The results revealed that both tunnels supported better flight path tracking than the FMA, because of the availability of more preview information. Increasing tunnel intensity, while reducing subjective workload, had no benefit on tracking, and degraded traffic detection performance. In Experiment 2, flown mostly in IMC, the low intensity tunnel was flown with a large (10 inch x 8 inch) and small (8 inch x 6.5 inch) display, representing a geometric field of view (GFOV) of either 30 degrees or 60 degrees. Most measures of flight path tracking performance favored the smaller display, and particularly the 60 degree GFOV, which presented a smaller appearing tunnel, and a wider range of terrain depiction. The larger GFOV also supported better terrain awareness, and yielded a lower secondary task assessment of workload. In both experiments, the final landing approach was terminated by a runway obstruction, and the tunnel guided pilots on a missed approach. In nearly all cases, pilots failed to notice an air hazard that lay in the missed approach path, but was only depicted in the outside view.

Wickens, Christopher D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Online Visualization and Analysis of NASA Satellite-Based Global and Regional Precipitation Products Through Giovanni

Observational data are essential for Earth science research and applications. Traditional ground-based observations suffer from many limitations (e.g. costly deployment). As a result, data are often sparse and inconsistent, especially over vast oceans that cover nearly 71% of the Earth's surface, and for remote continents. Precipitation is one of the important physical parameters in the global hydrological cycle and other disciplines. Each year, severe floods and droughts happen in different parts of the world and cause significant damage to the economy, as well as human casualties (e.g. Hurricane Katrina, the Dust Bowl). Accurate and timely precipitation observations and predictions are important for research and applications. However, ground-based precipitation observations are quite limited, especially in remote and mountainous regions. Since the satellite era began, satellite-based precipitation products have gained popularity in Earth science research, applications, and education. Accessing satellite products can be a daunting task to many users, especially those who do not have prior experience or knowledge with satellite data. Recognizing this obstacle, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences and Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), home to data archives for the NASA-JAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), has developed data services including an online visualization and analysis tool, Giovanni (the Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure), enabling users at different levels to access, explore, and evaluate NASA satellite-based data products without downloading either data and software, or requiring coding. Currently, global and regional precipitation products from different satellite missions (TRMM, GPM) and projects (e.g. the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)), ranging from half-hourly to monthly temporal resolution, are available in Giovanni. There are over 1900 variables in Giovanni, covering measurements in precipitation, hydrology, atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric chemistry, etc. In this poster presentation, we will provide a live demonstration of Giovanni and its latest development, including precipitation-related variables, and new basic features such as polar projections. The session will also provide a Q&A opportunity for attendees.

Giovanni↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Role of Low-Level, Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris Euphrates Headwaters

Rainfall variability in the Tigris Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (1983 - 2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days, when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

rainfall variability↗
NASA NTRS2010

Unveiling the Galaxy Population at 1.3 < z < 4: the HUDF05 NICMOS Parallel Fields

Using the Hubble Ultra Deep Field Near Infrared Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer (HUDF-NICMOS) UDF05 parallel fields, we cross-matched 301 out of 630 galaxies with the ACS filters V606 and z850, NICMOS filters J110 and H160, and Spitzer IRAC filters at 3.6, 4.5, 5.8 , and 8.0 (mu)m. We modeled the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) to estimate: photometric redshifts, dust extinction, stellar mass, bolometric luminosity, starburst age and metallicity. To validate the photometric redshifts, comparisons with 16 spectroscopic redshifts give 75% within Delta < 0.2, which agrees with the sensitivities expected from the Balmer-break in our dataset. Five parallel fields observed by NICMOS have sensitivities in the H160-band of 80% at mAB = 25.4 and 50% at mAB = 26.7. Because the sample is H160-band selected, it is sensitive to stellar mass rather than UV luminosities. We also use Monte Carlo simulations to determine that the parameters from the best-fit SEDs are robust for the redshift ranges z > or approx. 1.3. Based on the robustness of the photometric redshifts, we analyze a subsample of the 301 galaxies at 1.3 < or = z < or = 2 (35 objects) and 3 < or = z < or = 4 (31 objects) and determine that L(BoI) and the star formation rate increase significantly from z approx. 1.5 to 4. The Balmer decrement is indicative of more evolved galaxies, and at high redshifts, they serve as records of some of the first galaxies. Therefore, the galaxies in this sample are great candidates for future surveys with the James Webb Space Telescope and Atacama Large Millimeter Array.

Petty, Sara M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Monolithic silicon bolometers

A new type of bolometer detector for the millimeter and submillimeter spectral range is described. The bolometer is constructed of silicon using integrated circuit fabrication techniques. Ion implantation is used to give controlled resistance vs temperature properties as well as extremely low 1/f noise contacts. The devices have been tested between 4.2 and 0.3 K. The best electrical NEP measured is 4 x 10 to the -16th W/Hz to the 1/2 at 0.35 K between 1- and 10-Hz modulation frequency. This device had a detecting area of 0.25 sq cm and a time constant of 20 msec at a bath temperature of 0.35 K.

Downey, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

InSAR-based detection method for mapping and monitoring slow-moving landslides in remote regions with steep and mountainous terrain: An application to Nepal

Mapping and monitoring landslides in remote areas with steep and mountainous terrain is logistically challenging, expensive, and time consuming. Yet, in order to mitigate hazards and prevent loss of life in these areas, and to better understand landslide processes, high-resolution measurements of landslide activity are necessary. Satellite-based synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) provides millimeter-scale measurements of ground surface deformation that can be used to identify and monitor landslides in remote areas where ground-based monitoring techniques are not feasible. Here we present a novel InSAR deformation detection approach, which uses double difference time-series with local and regional spatial filters and pixel clustering methods to identify and monitor slow-moving landslides without making a priori assumptions of the location of landslides. We apply our analysis to freely available Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite data acquired between 2014 and 2017 centered on the Trishuli River drainage basin in Nepal. We found a minimum of 6 slow-moving landslides that all occur within the Ranimatta lithologic formation (phyllites, metasandstones, meta basics). These landslides have areas ranging from 0.39 to 1.66 sq.km and long-term dry-season displacement rates ranging from 2.1 to 8.8 cm/yr. Due to periods of low coherence during the monsoon season (June – September) each year, and following the 25 April 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake, our time series analysis is limited to the 2014-2015 and 2016-2017 dry seasons (September - May). We found that each of the landslides displayed slightly higher rates during the 2014 period, likely as a result of higher cumulative rainfall that fell during the 2014 monsoon season. Although we do not have high quality InSAR data to show the landslide evolution directly following the Gorkha earthquake, the similar rates of movement before (2014-2015) and after (2016-2017) Gorkha suggest the earthquake had negligible long-term impact on these landslides. Our findings highlight the potential for region-wide mapping of slow-moving l and slides using freely available remote sensing data in remote areas such as Nepal and future work will benefit from expanding our methodology to other regions around the world.

Synthetic Aperture Radar↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Advanced Technology Large Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST): Science Drivers, Technology Developments, and Synergies with Other Future Facilities

The Advanced Technology Large-Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) is a concept for an 8-meter to 16-meter UVOIR space observatory for launch in the 2025-2030 era. ATLAST will allow astronomers to answer fundamental questions at the forefront of modern astrophysics, including "Is there life elsewhere in the Galaxy?" We present a range of science drivers that define the main performance requirements for ATLAST (8 to 16 milliarcsec angular resolution, diffraction limited imaging at 0.5 m wavelength, minimum collecting area of 45 square meters, high sensitivity to light wavelengths from 0.1 m to 2.4 m, high stability in wavefront sensing and control). We will also discuss the synergy between ATLAST and other anticipated future facilities (e.g., TMT, EELT, ALMA) and the priorities for technology development that will enable the construction for a cost that is comparable to current generation observatory-class space missions.

Postman, Marc↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Advanced Technology Large Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST): Science Drivers and Technology Developments

The Advanced Technology Large-Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) is a concept for an 8-meter to 16-meter UVOIR space observatory for launch in the 2025-2030 era. ATLAST will allow astronomers to answer fundamental questions at the forefront of modern astrophysics, including "Is there life elsewhere in the Galaxy?" We present a range of science drivers and the resulting performance requirements for ATLAST (8 to 16 milliarcsecond angular resolution, diffraction limited imaging at 0.5 m wavelength, minimum collecting area of 45 square meters, high sensitivity to light wavelengths from 0.1 m to 2.4 m, high stability in wavefront sensing and control). We also discuss the priorities for technology development needed to enable the construction of ATLAST for a cost that is comparable to current generation observatory-class space missions. Keywords: Advanced Technology Large-Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST); ultraviolet/optical space telescopes; astrophysics; astrobiology; technology development.

Postman, Marc↗
NASA NTRS2003

Development of a safe ground to space laser propagation system for the optical communications telescope laboratory

Furthering pursuits in high bandwidth communications to future NASA deep space and neat-Earth probes, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is building the Optical communications Telescope Laboratory (OCTL) atop Table Mountain in Southern California. This R&D optical antenna will be used to develop optical communication strategies for future optical ground stations. Initial experiments to be conducted include propagating high-powered, Q-switched laser beams to retro-reflecting satellites. Yet laser beam propagation from the ground to space is under the cognizance of various government agencies, namely: the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (ISHA) that is responsible for protecting workforce personnel; the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) responsible for protecting pilots and aircraft; and the Laser Clearinghouse of Space Command responsible for protecting space assets. To ensure that laser beam propagation from the OCTL and future autonomously operated ground stations comply with the guidelines of these organizations, JPL is developing a multi-tiered safety system that will meet the coordination, monitoring, and reporting functions required by the agencies. At Tier 0, laser operators will meet OSHA safety standards for protection and access to the high power lasers area will be restricted and interlocked. Tier 1, the area defined from the telescope dome out to a range of 3.4-km, will utilize long wave infrared camera sensors to alert operators of at risk aircraft in the FAA controlled airspace. Tier 2, defined to extend from 3.4-km out to the aircraft service ceiling in FAA airspace, will detect at risk aircraft by radar. Lastly, beam propagation into space, defined as Tier 3, will require coordination with the Laser Clearinghouse. A detailed description of the four tiers is presented along with the design of the integrated monitoring and beam transmission control system.

laser safety↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata)) were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (18 deg to 25 deg), convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width (TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies) have a high impact on current TRW (r = 0.60 to 0.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest- steppe) and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

conifer mortality↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interactions Between Thresholds and Spatial Discretizations of Snow: Insights From Estimates of Wolverine Denning Habitat in the Colorado Rocky Mountains

Thresholds can be used to interpret environmental data in a way that is easily communicated and useful for decision making purposes. However, thresholds are often developed for specific data products and time periods, changing findings when the same threshold is applied to datasets or periods with different characteristics. Here, we test the impact of different spatial discretizations of snow on annual estimates of wolverine denning opportunities in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, defined using a snow water equivalent (SWE) threshold (0.20 m) and threshold date (15 May) from previous habitat assessments. Annual potential wolverine denning area (PWDA) was thresholded from a 36-year (1985 – 2020) snow reanalysis model with three different spatial discretizations: 1) 480 m grid cells (D480), 2) 90 m grid cells (D90), and 3) 480 m grid cells with implicit representations of subgrid snow spatial heterogeneity (S480). Relative to the D480 and S480 discretizations, D90 resolved shallower snow deposits on slopes between 3050 and 3350 m elevation, decreasing PWDA by 10%, on average. In years with warmer and/or drier winters, S480 discretizations with subgrid representations of snow heterogeneity increased PWDA, even within grid cells where mean 15 May SWE was less than the SWE threshold. These simulations increased PWDA by upwards of 30% in low snow years, as compared to the D480 and D90 simulations without subgrid snow heterogeneity. Despite PWDA sensitivity to different snow spatial discretizations, PWDA was controlled more by annual variations in winter precipitation and temperature. However, small changes to the SWE threshold (± 0.07 m) and threshold date (± 2 weeks) also affected PWDA by as much as 82%. Across these threshold ranges, PWDA was approximately 18% more sensitive to the SWE threshold than the threshold date. However, the sensitivity to the threshold date was larger in years with late spring snowfall, when PWDA depended on whether modeled SWE was thresholded before, during, or after spring snow accumulation. Our results demonstrate that snow thresholds are useful but may not always provide a complete picture of the annual variability in snow-adapted wildlife denning opportunities. Studies thresholding spatiotemporal datasets could be improved by including 1) information about the fidelity of thresholds across multiple spatial discretizations, and 2) uncertainties related to ranges of realistic thresholds.

Justin M. Pflug↗
NASA NTRS2011

Fire Return Interval Within the Northern Boundary of the Larch Forest

Larch (Larix spp.) dominant forests compose a large proportion of the forests of Russia (i.e., about 40% of forested areas). These forests range from the Yenisei ridge on the west to the Pacific Ocean on the east, and from Lake Baikal on the south to the 73rd parallel in the north. Larch stands comprise the world s northern most forest at Ary-Mas (72 deg 28' N, 102 deg 15' E). Larch dominated forests occupy about 70% of the permafrost areas in Siberia. Larch forms high closure stands as well as open forests, and is found mainly over permafrost, where other tree species barely survive. Wildfires are typical for this territory with the majority occurring as ground fires due to low crown closure. Due to the thin active layer in permafrost soils and a dense lichen-moss cover, ground fires may cause stand mortality. The vast areas of larch-dominant forests is generally considered as a "carbon sink"; however, positive long-term temperature trends at higher latitudes are expected to result in an increase of fire frequency, and thus may convert this area to a source for greenhouse gases. There are recent observations regarding the increase of fire frequency within non-protected territories. Surprisingly, there are few publications on fire chronoseqences for the huge forested territory between the Ural Mountains and the Pacific Ocean. Also there is a general understanding that bimodal (late spring -- early summer and late summer-beginning of fall) fire seasonal distribution in the south becomes uni-modal (late spring -- early summer) in the north. The purpose of this study is to investigate the wildfire history at the northern edge of the zone of larch dominance.

Kharuk, V. I.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Superboom Caustic Analysis and Measurement Program (SCAMP) Final Report

The objectives of the Superboom Caustic Analysis and Measurement (SCAMP) Program were to develop and validate, via flight-test measurements, analytical models for sonic boom signatures in and around focal zones as they are expected to occur during commercial aircraft transition from subsonic to supersonic flight, and to apply these models to focus boom prediction of low-boom aircraft designs. The SCAMP program has successfully investigated sonic boom focusing both analytically and experimentally, while gathering a comprehensive empirical flight test and acoustic dataset, and developing a suite of focused sonic boom prediction tools. An experimental flight and acoustic measurement test was designed during the initial year of the SCAMP program, with execution of the SCAMP flight test occurring in May 2011. The current SCAMP team, led by Wyle, includes partners from the Boeing Company, Pennsylvania State University, Gulfstream Aerospace, Eagle Aeronautics, and Central Washington University. Numerous collaborators have also participated by supporting the experiment with human and equipment resources at their own expense. The experiment involved precision flight of a McDonnell Douglas (now Boeing) F-18B executing different maneuvers that created focused sonic booms. The maneuvers were designed to center on the flight regime expected for commercial supersonic aircraft transonic transition, and also span a range of caustic curvatures in order to provide a variety of conditions for code validations. The SCAMP experiment was designed to capture concurrent F-18B on-board flight instrumentation data, high-fidelity ground-based and airborne acoustic data, and surface and upper air meteorological data. Close coordination with NASA Dryden resulted in the development of new experimental instrumentation and techniques to facilitate the SCAMP flight-test execution, including the development of an F-18B Mach rate cockpit display, TG-14 powered glider in-flight sonic boom measurement instrumentation and "Where's the Focus?" (WTF) software for near-real time way-point computation accounting for local atmospherics. In May 2011, 13 F-18B flights were conducted during 5 flying days over a 2 week period. A densely populated 10,000 ft-long ground acoustic array with 125-ft microphone spacing was designed to capture pre-, focus, and post-focus regions. The ground-based acoustic array was placed in a nominally east-west orientation in the remote Cuddeback lakebed region, north of Edwards AFB. This area was carefully selected to avoid placing focused booms on populated areas or solar power facilities. For the SCAMP measurement campaign, approvals were obtained to temporarily extend the Black Mountain supersonic corridor northward by three miles. The SCAMP flight tests successfully captured 70 boom events, with 61 focus passes, and 9 calibration passes. Seventeen of the focus passes and three of the calibration passes were laterally offset; with the others being centerline flights. Airborne incoming sonic boom wave measurements were measured by the TG-14 for 10 of the F-18B flight passes including one maximum focus signature, several N-u combinations, several overlapped N-u signatures, and several evanescent waves. During the 27-month program, the SCAMP team developed a suite of integrated computer codes with sonic boom focusing predictive capabilities: PCBoom, Lossy Nonlinear Tricomi Equation Method (LNTE) and the Nonlinear Progressive wave Equation (NPE) method. PCBoom propagates the rays through the atmosphere and, in addition to legacy focus signature prediction based on the Gill-Seebass method, provides input source characteristics and propagation parameters to LNTE and NPE. LNTE, a Tricomi solver that incorporates atmospheric losses, computes the focus signature at the focus, and computes the focus signature in the vicinity of the focal zone, including the evanescent and post-focus zones. LNTE signature auralization from low-boom vehicle designs has been demonstrated in the NASA Langley Interior Effects Room (IER). The NPE has also been validated for use in prediction of focused ground boom signatures in sonic boom focal zones. The NPE formulation has the capability to incorporate atmospheric turbulence in the predictions. This has been applied to sonic boom propagation in the past. Prediction of turbulence effects on focal zone signatures was not, however, explored during the SCAMP program.

Page, Juliet↗