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Numerical integration of orbits in multirevolution steps
Predictor-corrector algorithm applicable to numerical integration of satellite orbits in multirevolution steps
Adaptive Stress Testing of Trajectory Predictions in Flight Management Systems
To find failure events and their likelihoods in flight-critical systems, we investigate the use of an advanced black-box stress testing approach called adaptive stress testing. We analyze a trajectory predictor from a developmental commercial flight management system which takes as input a collection of lateral waypoints and en-route environmental conditions. Our aim is to search for failure events relating to inconsistencies in the predicted lateral trajectories. The intention of this work is to find likely failures and report them back to the developers so they can address and potentially resolve shortcomings of the system before deployment. To improve search performance, this work extends the adaptive stress testing formulation to be applied more generally to sequential decision-making problems with episodic reward by collecting the state transitions during the search and evaluating at the end of the simulated rollout. We use a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm with progressive widening as our adversarial reinforcement learner. The performance is compared to direct Monte Carlo simulations and to the cross-entropy method as an alternative importance sampling baseline. The goal is to find potential problems otherwise not found by traditional requirements-based testing. Results indicate that our adaptive stress testing approach finds more failures and finds failures with higher likelihood relative to the baseline approaches.
A Panoramic View of MXenes via an Atomic Coordination‐Based Design Strategy
Two‐dimensional (2D) transition metal carbides and nitrides, known as MXenes, possess unique physical and chemical properties, enabling diverse applications in fields ranging from energy storage to communication, catalysis, sensing, healthcare, and beyond. Despite extensive research and notable advancements, a fundamental understanding of MXenes’ phase diversity and its connection to their hierarchical precursors, including the intermediate MAX phases and the ancestral bulk phases, remains limited. Here, in this study, it is hypothesized that the atomic coordination environments adopted by transition metal and nonmetallic atoms in their three‐dimensional (3D) bulk precursors may persist in 2D MXenes to govern their phase diversity. Using high‐throughput modeling based on first‐principles density functional theory, a wide range of MXene phases is unveiled and comprehensively evaluate their relative stabilities across a large chemical space. The key to the approach lies in considering various atomic coordination environments drawn from four types of ancestral bulk phases. Through this comprehensive structural library of MXenes, general guiding principles are uncovered, such as a close alignment between the phase stability of MXenes and that of their 3D precursors. These findings introduce a new design strategy in which the atomic coordination environments in bulk phases can serve as reliable predictors for accessing the diverse structural landscape of MXenes.
Towards the Ultimate Strength of Medium‐Entropy Alloys Through Pulsed Lasers
The tensile strength of metals at extreme strain rates is a key predictor of their performance in ballistic and structural impact applications. An important experimental method to reach these extreme strain rates is the use of high-amplitude, short-duration pulsed lasers. The Jupiter Laser Facility at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory enabled probing for the first time the mechanical response of several promising High Entropy Alloys at times on the order of nanoseconds (strain rates of ∼10 7 and ∼10 9 s −1 ). The measured strength is in the range of 6 to 10 GPa, ten times the quasistatic value. The mechanisms of plastic deformation and failure were identified and quantified through analysis and molecular dynamics simulation. The reflected wave amplitudes, obtained by VISAR, were used to determine the tensile (spall) stress. The high tensile strength obtained is due to two factors: the strain-rate dependence of plastic flow and the kinetics of void nucleation, growth, and coalescence. The experimental results are compared with an analytical prediction considering both grain-interior and grain-boundary void initiation. Molecular dynamics simulations, conducted at strain rates of 10 8 and 10 9 s −1 , rationalize the experimental results. In conclusion, they provide valuable information about the process of failure evolution, and reveal that grain boundary separation plays a pivotal role in spalling.
Global brain activity and its coupling with cerebrospinal fluid flow is related to tau pathology
Abstract INTRODUCTION Factors responsible for the deposition of pathological tau in the brain are incompletely understood. This study links macroscale tau deposition in the human brain to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) flow dynamics using resting‐state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI). METHODS Low‐frequency (< 0.1 Hz) resting‐state global brain activity is coupled with CSF flow and potentially reflects CSF dynamics‐related clearance. We examined the correlation between rsfMRI measures of CSF inflow and global activity (gBOLD–CSF coupling) as a predictor, interacting with amyloid beta (Aβ), of tau and cortical thickness (dependent variables) across Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) participants from cognitively unimpaired through mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD). RESULTS Tau deposition in Aβ+ participants, accompanied by cortical thinning and cognitive decline, is associated with decreased gBOLD–CSF coupling. Tau mediates the relationship between coupling and thickness. DISCUSSION Findings suggest that resting‐state global brain activity and CSF movements comodulate Alzheimer's tau deposition, presumably related to CSF clearance. Highlights A non‐invasive functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) assessment of a CSF clearance‐related process is carried out. Global brain activity is coupled with CSF inflow in human fMRI during resting state. Global fMRI–CSF coupling is correlated with tau in Alzheimer's disease (AD). This coupling measure is also associated with cortical thickness, mediated by tau.
The impact of plant‐derived fire management prescriptions on fire‐responsive bird species
Abstract In fire‐prone regions, the occurrence of some faunal species is contingent on the presence of resources that arise through post‐fire plant succession. Through planned burning, managers can alter resource availability and aim to provide the conditions required to promote biodiversity. Understanding how species occurrence changes at different spatial and temporal scales after fire is essential to achieve this goal. However, many fire prescriptions are guided primarily by the responses of fire‐sensitive plants when setting tolerable fire intervals. This approach assumes that maintaining floristic diversity will satisfy the requirements of fauna. We surveyed bird species in two semi‐arid vegetation types across an environmental gradient in south‐eastern Australia. We conducted four surveys at each of 253 sites across a 75‐year chronosequence of time since fire and used generalized additive mixed models to examine changes in the occurrence of birds in response to time since fire. Model predictions were compared to plant‐derived fire prescriptions currently guiding fire management in the region. Time since fire was a significant predictor for 18 of 28 species modeled, in at least one vegetation type, over a gradient of 1.3° of latitude. We detected considerable variation in the responses of some species, both between vegetation types and geographically within a vegetation type. Our evaluation of plant‐derived fire prescriptions suggests that the intervals considered acceptable for maintaining floristic diversity may not be sustainable for populations of birds requiring longer unburnt vegetation, with 6 of the 12 species assessed attaining a mean occurrence probability of 20.3% by the minimum tolerable fire interval, and 57.3% by the maximum tolerable fire interval, in their respective vegetation types. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of fire‐responsive bird species if fire prescriptions are applied in a manner that fails to account for the slow development of habitat resources needed by some species, and the variation detected within the responses of species. This highlights the need for species‐specific data collected at an appropriate spatial scale to inform management plans.
Identifying microbial drivers in biological phenotypes with a Bayesian network regression model
Abstract In Bayesian Network Regression models, networks are considered the predictors of continuous responses. These models have been successfully used in brain research to identify regions in the brain that are associated with specific human traits, yet their potential to elucidate microbial drivers in biological phenotypes for microbiome research remains unknown. In particular, microbial networks are challenging due to their high dimension and high sparsity compared to brain networks. Furthermore, unlike in brain connectome research, in microbiome research, it is usually expected that the presence of microbes has an effect on the response (main effects), not just the interactions. Here, we develop the first thorough investigation of whether Bayesian Network Regression models are suitable for microbial datasets on a variety of synthetic and real data under diverse biological scenarios. We test whether the Bayesian Network Regression model that accounts only for interaction effects (edges in the network) is able to identify key drivers (microbes) in phenotypic variability. We show that this model is indeed able to identify influential nodes and edges in the microbial networks that drive changes in the phenotype for most biological settings, but we also identify scenarios where this method performs poorly which allows us to provide practical advice for domain scientists aiming to apply these tools to their datasets. BNR models provide a framework for microbiome researchers to identify connections between microbes and measured phenotypes. We allow the use of this statistical model by providing an easy‐to‐use implementation which is publicly available Julia package at https://github.com/solislemuslab/BayesianNetworkRegression.jl .
Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model
Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.
Getting allometry right at the Oak Ridge free‐air CO 2 enrichment experiment: Old problems and new opportunities for global change experiments
Societal Impact Statement Free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiments provide essential data on forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO 2 for evaluations of climate change impacts on humanity. Understanding and reducing the uncertainty in the experimental results is critical to ensure scientific and public confidence in the models and policy initiatives that derive therefrom. One source of uncertainty is the estimation of tree biomass using mathematical relationships between biomass and easily obtained and non‐destructive measurements (allometry). We evaluated the robustness of the allometric relationships established at the beginning of a FACE experiment and discuss the challenges and opportunities for the new generation of FACE experiments. Summary Long‐term field experiments to elucidate forest responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration require allometric equations to estimate tree biomass from non‐destructive measurements of tree size. We analyzed whether the allometric equations established at the beginning of a free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiment in a Liquidambar styraciflua plantation were still valid at the end of the 12 year experiment. Aboveground woody biomass was initially predicted by an equation that included bole diameter, taper, and height, assuming that including taper and height as predictors would accommodate changes in tree structure that might occur over time and in response to elevated CO 2 . At the conclusion of the FACE experiment, we harvested 23 trees, measured dimensions and dry mass of boles and branches, and extracted and measured the woody root mass of 10 trees. Although 10 of the harvested trees were larger than the trees used to establish the allometric relationship, measured aboveground woody biomass was well predicted by the original allometry. The initial linear equation between bole basal area and woody root biomass underestimated final root biomass by 28%, but root biomass was just 21% of total wood mass, and errors in aboveground and belowground estimates were offsetting. The allometry established at the beginning of the experiment provided valid predictions of tree biomass throughout the experiment. New allometric approaches using terrestrial laser scanning should reduce an important source of uncertainty in decade‐long forest experiments and in assessments of centuries‐long forest biomass accretion used in evaluating carbon offsets and climate mitigation.
Cohort-based pan-cancer analysis and experimental studies reveal ISG15 gene as a novel biomarker for prognosis and immunotherapy efficacy prediction
Abstract ISG15, an interferon-stimulated ubiquitin-like protein, plays a multifaceted role in tumorigenesis and immune regulation. This study comprehensively evaluates ISG15 as a prognostic biomarker and predictor of immunotherapy response through pan-cancer bioinformatics analysis and experimental validation. By integrating multiomics data from TCGA, GEO, and clinical cohorts, we found that ISG15 is significantly overexpressed in multiple cancers and generally correlates with poor prognosis. Elevated ISG15 expression is associated with increased immune checkpoint gene expression, particularly PD-L1, and immune infiltration, notably M2-like tumor-associated macrophages. Immunohistochemistry and multiplexed immunofluorescence confirmed a strong positive correlation between ISG15, PD-L1, and M2-TAM infiltration in lung and gastric cancer samples. Functional analysis at the single-cell level revealed significant associations between ISG15 and tumor proliferation, angiogenesis, and immune suppression. Immunotherapy cohort analysis demonstrated that tumors with high ISG15 expression responded favorably to PD-L1 inhibitors but exhibited resistance to CTLA-4 blockade, findings further validated in lung cancer patients receiving anti-PD-1 therapy. These results suggest that ISG15 is a promising biomarker for prognosis and immunotherapy response prediction across cancers. Its integration into clinical decision-making may enhance personalized treatment strategies, improve immunotherapy outcomes, and provide new insights into the tumor immune microenvironment, cancer progression, and potential therapeutic targets for future drug development.
Climate models project increasing precipitation in the US Southwest in 2024–2100
We analyzed the measured precipitation in the southwestern US and found that, from 1900 to 2024, precipitation decreased at an average rate of − 1.2 cm per year per 100 years. The most significant precipitation decreases occurred in the three-month period from February to April. At the same time, precipitation during the southwestern monsoon season (July, August, and September) remained relatively stable. The ensemble mean of all CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models, along with the regression model incorporating anthropogenic aerosol (AER) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as predictors, projects precipitation to increase from 2024 to 2100. This projected precipitation increase relies on the anticipated decrease in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, which is associated with the transition from fossil fuel burning to renewable and nuclear energy sources.
Riverine dissolved organic matter transformations increase with watershed area, water residence time, and Damköhler numbers in nested watersheds
Abstract Quantifying the relative influence of factors and processes controlling riverine ecosystem function is essential to predicting future conditions under global change. Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a fundamental component of riverine ecosystems that fuels microbial food webs, influences nutrient and light availability, and represents a significant carbon flux globally. The heterogeneous nature of DOM molecular composition and its propensity for interaction (i.e., functional diversity) can characterize riverine ecosystem function across spatiotemporal scales. To investigate fundamental drivers of DOM diversity, we collected seasonal water samples from 42 nested locations within five watersheds spanning multiple watershed sizes (~ 5 to 30,000 km 2 ) across the United States. Patterns in DOM molecular richness, aromaticity, relative abundance of N-containing formulas, and putative biochemical transformations derived from high-resolution mass spectrometry were assessed across gradients of explanatory variables associated with watershed characteristics (e.g., watershed area, water residence time, land cover). We found that putative biochemical transformations were more strongly related to explanatory variables across watersheds than common bulk DOM parameters and that watershed area, surface water residence time and derived Damköhler numbers representing DOM reactivity timescales were strong predictors of DOM diversity. The data also indicate that catchment-specific land cover factors can significantly influence DOM diversity in diverging directions. Overall, the results highlight the importance of considering water residence time and land cover when interpreting longitudinal patterns in DOM chemistry and the continued challenge of identifying generalizable drivers that are transferable across watershed and regional scales for application in Earth system models. This work also introduces a Findable Accessible Interoperable Reusable (FAIR) dataset (> 300 samples) to the community for future syntheses.
Storage and persistence of organic carbon in the upper three meters of soil under arable and native prairie land use
Aims: Land use change from native grasslands to arable lands globally impacts soil ecosystem functions, including the storage of soil organic carbon (SOC). Understanding the factors affecting SOC changes in topsoil and subsoil due to land use is crucial for effective mitigation strategies. We determined SOC storage and persistence as affected by land use change from native prairies to arable lands. Methods: Here we examined SOC stocks, soil δ 13 C and Δ 14 C signatures, microbial communities (bacteria and fungi), and soil mineral characteristics under native prairies and long-term arable lands (i.e., > 40 years) down to 3 m in the U.S. Midwest. Results: Native prairie soils had higher SOC stocks in the A horizon and 0–50 cm depth increment than arable soils. For both land use types, the δ 13 C and Δ 14 C values significantly decreased with depth, with the latter pointing towards highly stabilized SOC, especially in the B- and C-horizons. Analysis of the microbial communities indicated that the diversity of bacteria and fungi decreased with increasing soil depth. The content of oxalate soluble Al appeared to be the single most important predictor of SOC across horizons and land use types. Conclusion: Our data suggest that most SOC gains and losses and transformation and translocation processes seem to be restricted to the uppermost 50 cm. Increasing SOC retention in the A and B horizons within the 0–50 cm depth would enhance organic material serving as substrate and nutrients for microbes and plants (A horizon) and facilitate long-term SOC storage in the subsoil (B horizon).
High Speed Impact Testing of UHMWPE Composite Using Orthogonal Arrays
Abstract Background Ultra high molecular weight polyethylene composites are fiber based composites used in armor applications. While some characterization has been conducted experimentally, this study varies multiple parameters simultaneously to investigate material response under a wide range of conditions. Objective This work focuses on characterizing the response of Dyneema ® HB26 hard laminate composites under high-speed impacts to examine the influence of plate diameter, clamping pressure, and plate spacing on target performance. Additionally, micro Computer Tomography scans are used to nondestructively evaluate the damage evolution in the targets. Methods These scan results are used in concert with more traditional armor performance metrics to evaluate the effect of various parameters using the method of orthogonal array analysis. This technique allows for multiple variables to be investigated in the same test series, saving time and budget while still providing quality results across a range of variables and variable values. Results We conclude that of the parameters investigated, the plate spacing parameter has the largest effect on performance, followed by the plate diameter. Bolt torque was found to not have a significant impact on results, indicating that an edge clamping pressure is not critical to material response. Additionally, by examining the high resolution scans, we can quantify the damage with an effective damage angle and that this angle is a good predictor of performance. Conclusion Finally a damage theory involving the effective bending strength of the plates is discussed as an explanation for all of the results observed in this test series.
CMPLE: Correlation Modeling to Decode Photosynthesis Using the Minorize–Maximize Algorithm
In plant genomic experiments, correlations among various biological traits (phenotypes) give new insights into how genetic diversity may have tuned biological processes to enhance fitness under diverse conditions. Consequently, knowing how the correlations are affected by genetic (G) and environmental (E) factors helps develop climate-resilient plants. However, the current literature lacks any method for assessing the effect of predictors on pairwise correlations among multiple phenotypes together with easily interpretable model parameters. To address this need, we propose to model pairwise correlations directly in terms of G and E and develop a computationally efficient inference procedure. Two major novelties in our methodology are (1) the use of a composite pairwise likelihood method to avoid the positive definiteness restriction on the correlation matrix and (2) the use of a novel Minorize–Maximize (MM) algorithm for the efficient estimation of a large number of parameters. The proposed method shows excellent numerical performance on synthetic datasets. Here, the analysis of the motivating data on cowpea reveals that the rates of solar energy storage by photosynthesis (the aggregate trait) are differentially affected by different genetic loci through two distinct processes: “photoinhibition” which results from photodamage caused by excess light, and “photoprotection” which protects plants from photodamage but also results in energy loss.
Three-step LES-C models for flows at high Reynolds numbers
Here, we investigate the need for the second correction step in the recently proposed LES-C models for fluid flows at high Reynolds numbers. These models use a predictor-corrector idea to enhance the efficiency of the existing Large Eddy Simulation models. Different three-step(one defect step, two corrections) LES-C models, based on the Leray-α, ADM and NS-ω LES models, are tested in three different situations. The new Leray-α-C2 model (C2 stands for two correction steps) is applied to the Navier–Stokes equations; the ADC2 is applied to the MagnetoHydroDynamic flow; and the NS-ω-C2 is used in the fluid-fluid interaction problem. We evaluate the effectiveness of the second correction step in all these settings, using qualitative and quantitative numerical tests.
An energetic link between order and strength in metals: A nanocrystalline strength limit in high-entropy alloys and intermetallic compounds
The metallurgy and materials communities have long understood and exploited fundamental links between chemical and structural ordering in metallic solids to tailor their mechanical properties. We extend these ideas to include prediction of the nanocrystalline strength limit in high-entropy alloys and intermetallic compounds, where a breakdown occurs in the classical Hall-Petch strengthening behavior. The highest reported strength achievable through alloying has rapidly climbed and given rise to new classifications of materials with extraordinary properties, with a notable case being nanocrystalline metals. High-entropy alloys (chemically disordered, concentrated solid solutions) and intermetallic compounds are two boundary cases of how tailored order can be used to manipulate mechanical behavior. Here, we show that the complex electronic-structure mechanisms governing the peak strength of alloys and pure metals can be reduced to a few physically meaningful parameters based on their atomic arrangements and used – with no fitting parameters – to predict the maximum strength of these materials. This includes a generalized energy-based accounting for the degree of structural and chemical ordering that allows for rapid and reasonably accurate prediction of peak strength (validated in the nanocrystalline limit) as a function of temperature. Predictions of maximum strength based on the activation energy (with all materials properties derived from DFT calculations or experiments) for a stress-driven transition to an amorphous state is shown to accurately describe the breakdown in Hall-Petch behavior at the smallest crystallite sizes for pure metals, intermetallic compounds, high-entropy alloys, and metallic glasses. Further, this activation energy is also shown to be directly proportional to interstitial electronic charge density, which is a good predictor of ductility, stiffness (moduli), and phase stability in high-entropy alloys and solid metals generally. The proposed framework suggests the possibility of coupling ordering and intrinsic strength to mechanisms like dislocation nucleation, hydrogen embrittlement, and transport properties, such as through correlations between the activation energies for amorphization with stacking-fault and grain boundary energies. It additionally opens the prospect for greatly accelerated structural materials design and development to address materials challenges limiting more sustainable and efficient use of energy.