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At least 397 records · Page 22

Foundations of Molecular 'Isotomics'

The naturally occurring rare isotopes are versions of common elements, such as hydrogen, carbon and oxygen, that contain a larger than usual number of neutrons in their atomic nuclei and therefore are higher in mass than the common atoms of that element. Isotopes exist for most elements and are found in most natural and synthetic materials, but are uneven in their distribution because chemical and physical processes are isotope-selective (e.g., a chemical reaction may proceed more rapidly for one isotope than for another). For this reason, abundances of isotopes in a material of interest can provide a record, or ‘signature’ of various features of that material’s origin and history. These signatures have been used in the geo, life, chemical and physical sciences in a wide variety of ways over close to 8 decades. However, many such applications struggle to reach unique interpretations of isotopic data because multiple factors combine to control a given sample’s overall isotopic content. That is, the factors controlling isotopic content are too numerous and complex to fully constrain from a simple measurement of a material’s isotope abundances. However, the distribution of isotopes within materials, at molecular scales potentially provides a vastly larger number and diversity of constraints on the chemical and physical processes that comprise a material’s history. The rare isotopes may be concentrated into one atomic position in a molecule relative to another, some proportion of molecules in a sample may contain two or more rare isotopes, and those multiply-isotope-substituted forms of molecules may also have uneven distributions of those isotopes across individual atomic sites. For these reasons, even small, seemingly simple molecules, such as sugars, amino acids or drug compounds, actually exist in a vast number of isotopically unique forms (often millions or more), and each one of those forms is in some sense an independent ‘vote’ on that sample’s history. This project has focused on opening this rich archive of information by enabling the creation of routinely and widely applicable ways of measuring and interpreting isotopic structures of molecules. This work has included the development of core technologies and analytical methods, advancing fundamental understanding of the physical and chemical properties of isotopic versions of molecules, and conducting proof of concept studies of illustrative geochemical, cosmochemical and forensic problems in order to show how these technologies, methods and principles come together to solve problems in new ways. A key to the success of this project was the adaptation of ‘Fourier transform mass spectrometry’ (FTMS) to the task of precisely measuring proportions of the rare, naturally occurring isotopic forms of molecules. FTMS is a highly specialized form of mass spectrometry that traps ions within magnetic or electrostatic cavities and, effectively, ‘listens’ (through registering of subtle electrical signals) to the harmonic signals they make while rapidly orbiting within those cavities. These signals have periods that are a function of their mass and strength (or ‘loudness’) that is proportional to their abundances. Thus, these signals constrain relative amounts of molecules that differ in their mass due to various isotopic substitutions. This technology has been essential to the identification of organic molecules in the life, chemical and environmental sciences for over 4 decades, but generally has lacked the control, stability and precision to meaningfully measure rare isotope forms of molecules. This project’s most fundamental contribution has been to modify FTMS, both in terms of hardware and methods, to enable such measurements. The raw data of molecular isotopic structure is tremendously voluminous and complex, so another important activity of this project has been developing the theoretical and data-science tools needed to interpret the data generated by this new form of isotopic measurement. A particularly challenging part of this task has been predicting molecular isotopic structure, as only through the comparison of measurements with predictions can we make progress on hypothesis driven research questions. We have attacked this this prediction task through a combination of first-principles chemical-physics models of the effects of isotope substitution on molecule properties and data-science models that permit us to generalize that chemical physics to cases that have not yet been studied by detailed chemical physics theory. The proof of concept applications we have pursued over the course of this study include biological reactions of amino acids and other biomolecules, non-biological synthesis of organic molecules in extra-terrestrial settings such as meteorites, petroleum geoscience questions concerning the origin and evolution of natural gas, oil and kerogen compounds, and forensic questions such as the sourcing of chemical weapons. The successes of these applications have laid the groundwork for the next phase of this field’s development, which will include larger scale and more ambitious studies of molecular isotopic structure as a means of diagnosing human diseases, such as cancer, and reconstructing detailed interpretations of the origin and evolution of organic molecules in modern and geological environments.

Cesar, Jaime↗

Simplifying Geospatial Workflows with GeoGridFusion

Growing demands to understand PV deployment and reliability across an expanding range of climates, along with increasing computational power, are driving the need for simplified computing tools that support large-scale analysis and geospatial workflows. While existing open-source libraries and PV system modeling tools offer extensive collections of empirical and physical models, they often lack the ability to scale to large geospatial datasets. The tool presented here, GeoGridFusion, enables PV modelers to store and utilize gridded geospatial data from sources such as NSRDB, PVGIS, and others. GeoGridFusion harmonizes diverse datasets, taxonomies, and nomenclatures, and includes utilities that support intuitive geospatial area selection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-resolution hourly surrogate modeling framework for physics-based large-scale building stock modeling

Surrogate modeling can play a key role in reducing high computational burdens for large-scale physics-based modeling and uncertainty quantification. With the rapid development of large-scale building stock energy modeling, surrogate modeling has also begun to be widely applied in this field; however, most existing surrogate models lack hourly time resolution for regional-scale modeling, which is essential for understanding building demand profiles and grid impacts. Further, there is generally a lack of necessary data and feature engineering frameworks specific to building modeling for efficiently managing large datasets and complex computations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a modeling framework for large-scale (city-/region-scale), high-resolution, high-fidelity surrogate building stock energy models. Our developed framework consists of six modules: (1) building stock energy modeling (ComStock TM and ResStock TM ), (2) data engineering for large simulation data, (3) high performance computing workflow, (4) feature engineering, (5) machine learning model development, and (6) model performance evaluation. Two case studies apply the developed framework in both residential and commercial building stock analysis to demonstrate its computational efficiency and surrogate modeling accuracies. Results show that surrogate models, when efficiently trained using the HPC workflow module, reach a high level of modeling accuracy for two case studies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Heterogeneous Cluster Energetics and Nonlinear Thermodynamic Response in Supercritical Fluids

Microstructural heterogeneities arising from molecular clusters directly affect the nonlinear thermodynamic properties of supercritical fluids. We present a physical model to elucidate the relation between energy exchange and heterogeneous cluster dynamics during the transition from liquidlike to gaslike conditions. By analyzing molecular-dynamics data and employing physical principles, the model considers contributions from three key processes, namely, changing cluster density, cluster separation, and transfer of molecules between clusters. We show that the proposed model is consistent with the energetics at subcritical conditions and can be used to explain the nonlinear behavior of thermodynamic response functions, including the peak in the isobaric heat capacity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Results and lessons learned from accelerating radio frequency modeling using machine learning [slides]

The “advanced tokamak” reactor concept is a leading candidate for a steady state fusion pilot plant. An advanced tokamak (AT) sustains a majority of the required plasma current with effects resulting from maintenance of the peaked pressure at the device center. This current is augmented by auxiliary current drive sources. These auxiliary actuators may consist of neutral particle beams and/or radio frequency (RF) systems such as lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) and high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) current drive using radio and microwaves from antennas. The primary focus of this work is to develop models of RF current profile control suitable for use in integrated modeling frameworks and for real-time control in experiments. Direct physics models of RF current drive can be computationally intensive. In order to achieve predictive times appropriate for the thousands of calls needed in real-time control of experiments and for use in integrated models, we will apply modern machine learning (ML) techniques to accelerate these models and interpolate their results. To generate the fast and accurate models for use in control level algorithms and integrated modeling we need to replace present models with high dimensional interpolation of their results. We will perform additional simulations across a broader parameter range for EAST and other tokamaks in different physics regimes (Alcator C-Mod, DIII-D, WEST, CFETR, ARC, ITER) and combine them into a larger database for training and testing of the ML models. Further testing of the control level models with experimental current profile data from EAST and C-Mod tokamaks will provide additional confirmation of the control level model before integration in a tokamak control system or integrated modeling suite. ML will be used to optimize the selection of training data consisting of RF current driven at different values of density profile, temperature profile, plasma current, and wavenumber. ML will also be used to facilitate classification of current drive from these input data. The output of this effort will be a validated classifier capable of determining the current drive profiles for HHFW CD and LHCD on a mille-second timescale. This will provide a breakthrough capability enabling real-time control of RF driven current profiles in experiments including ITER ICRF and use integrated modeling frameworks requiring thousands of current profile calculations in discharge simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Physical vapor deposition simulator by graphical processor unit ray casting

This paper presents fast, accurate software for modeling physical vapor deposition systems over irregular surfaces. The model is implemented using graphics processing unit (GPU) ray casting. Applied models are viewed as a cross section of the area of interest. Given evaporation rate, time, and angular profiles in a vacuum system, an iterative time-step approach for calculating deposition profiles is calculated in the GPU architecture following a ballistic modeling approach. Thin-film technologies for the electronics industry will require evaporations on complex surfaces. Depending on the nature of the surface, a uniform thin film across the topology is wanted for various device parameters. The ray casting method is tested against various profiles. The code is freely distributed on GitHub (see https://github.com/adam-r-thomas/PVDS).

Engineering↗

Optimization of an aerostructural machining process using physics-guided Bayesian stability modelling

Existing algorithms for predicting milling chatter have not been widely adopted in industry since they require specialized instruments to measure the stability inputs. This study describes how the machining process for a meter-scale aluminum aerostructure was optimized using a physics-guided Bayesian stability model. The study was performed in collaboration with an industrial partner on production machines to evaluate the practicality of the proposed method under real-world conditions. For each cutting tool, the Bayesian approach automatically selected a small number of cutting tests, which were monitored using a microphone to observe the chatter frequency. The algorithm learned the system dynamics, cutting forces, and stability map from these test results. A novel algorithm for predicting tool bending stress was incorporated into the test selection algorithm to avoid tool breakage. On average, each set of optimized cutting parameters required less than six tests to identify and were 97% more productive than baseline parameters from the cutting tool manufacturer. The machining program was then further optimized using commercial feedrate scheduling software to remove cutting force spikes and reduce air cutting time. Five components were machined using the optimized process. These results demonstrate the potential for physics-guided Bayesian models to improve productivity in industrial settings.

Cornelius, Aaron [UT Knoxville]↗

Algebraic Bethe Circuits

The Algebraic Bethe Ansatz (ABA) is a highly successful analytical method used to exactly solve several physical models in both statistical mechanics and condensed-matter physics. Here we bring the ABA into unitary form, for its direct implementation on a quantum computer. This is achieved by distilling the non-unitary R matrices that make up the ABA into unitaries using the QR decomposition. Our algorithm is deterministic and works for both real and complex roots of the Bethe equations. We illustrate our method on the spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ XX and XXZ models. We show that using this approach one can efficiently prepare eigenstates of the XX model on a quantum computer with quantum resources that match previous state-of-the-art approaches. We run small-scale error mitigated implementations on the IBM quantum computers, including the preparation of the ground state for the XX and XXZ models on 4 sites. Finally, we derive a new form of the Yang-Baxter equation using unitary matrices, and also verify it on a quantum computer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Elevating zero dimensional global scaling predictions to self-consistent theory-based simulations

In this work, we have developed an innovative workflow, Stability, Transport, Equilibrium, and Pedestal (STEP)-zero-dimensional (0D), within the OMFIT integrated modeling framework. Through systematic validation against the International Tokamak Physics Activity global H-mode confinement database, we demonstrated that STEP-0D, on average, predicts the energy confinement time with a mean relative error of less than 19%. Moreover, this workflow showed promising potential in predicting plasmas for proposed fusion reactors such as the affordable, robust, compact (ARC) reactor, the European demonstration power plant (EU-DEMO), and the China fusion engineering test reactor (CFETR) indicating moderate H-factors between 0.9 and 1.2. STEP-0D allows theory-based prediction of tokamak scenarios, beginning with 0D quantities. The workflow initiates with the PRO-create module, generating physically consistent plasma profiles and equilibrium using the same 0D quantities as the IPB98(y,2) confinement scaling. This sets the starting point for the STEP module, which further iterates between theory-based physics models of equilibrium, core transport, and pedestal to yield a self-consistent solution. Given these attributes, STEP-0D not only improves the accuracy of predicting plasma performance but also provides a path toward a novel fusion power plant design workflow. When integrated with engineering and costing models within an optimization, this new approach could eliminate the iterative reconciliation between plasma models of varying fidelity. This potential for a more efficient design process underpins STEP-0D's significant contribution to future fusion power plant development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Search for Lepton Flavor Violation in Two Body Muon and Pion Decay at Rest

The ability of the Mu2e experiment to probe, or discover beyond the Standard Model physics in direct Charged Lepton Flavor Violation $\mu^+$ and $\pi^+$ decay modes is estimated. These direct modes are searched for simultaneously with proposed Mu2e detector validation runs, and are complementary to the Mu2e main search goal, an indirect search for $\mu^- \to e^-$ conversion at the sensitivity level of $\sim 10^{-17}$. The $\mu^+$ validation run will operate at 50% nominal magnetic field and reduced proton beam intensity to less than 1/100th nominal, in order to observe the e+ spectrum from $\mu^+$ decay, at and below the Michel edge Ee . 53 MeV. The $\pi^+$ validation run, based on measuring the mono-energetic e+ emission in the decay $\pi^+ \to e+\nu$, at 76% of nominal magnetic field and reduced beam intensity less than 1/5th nominal. Both of these runs can be used to fix the momentum scale for the Mu2e conversion search. In addition the muon validation dataset can be used to correct for systematic errors in the detector response by mapping the well known to O(\u03B13) corrected theoretical Michel spectrum, to the observed spectrum. One direct search is for two-body Charged Lepton Flavor Violation $\mu^+ \to e^+X$ decay, where $X$ is a light new physics particle. This allows Mu2e to explore well motivated models including axion like particles with flavor violating couplings and massive $Z^0$ bosons with more sensitivity then present astrophysical and laboratory constraints. In two weeks of data-taking, Mu2e can achieve direct mode 90% confidence level branching ratio limits of $10^{-7}$ over the mass range $20 \le m_X \le 50$ MeV, improving the current experimental limit at $10^{-5}$ by two orders of magnitude. In the mass range $m_X \le 20$ MeV, assuming systematic error corrections can be made by correcting the Monte Carlo mapping, the achievable search sensitivity is found to be $2.3\times 10^{-7}$ for $m_X =0$, an order of magnitude improvement over the current best limit at $2.6\times 10^{-6}$, when assuming $V+A$ or isotropic coupling. The $\pi^+$ validation run, allows searching for $\pi^+ \to e^+N$ decay, where $N$ is a heavy neutral lepton such as a heavy sterile neutrino, in the mass region $20 \le m_N \le 65$ MeV. A branching ratio limit at 90% confidence level of $3\times 10^{-8}$ can be achieved in two weeks, an improvement of the current search sensitivity limit by an order of magnitude.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Validating corrosion models: Influence of physical properties

In chloride containing environments, two metals in physical contact can undergo galvanic corrosion limiting the lifetime of components. Being able to accurately predict galvanic corrosion damage distributions over time has not been widely presented in literature. Therefore, Finite Element Method (FEM) corrosion models were experimentally validated for two galvanic couples as a function of governing equations, environment, anode material, anode:cathode ratio, and time. Carbon steel/stainless steel (CS/SS) and zinc/stainless steel (Zn/SS) galvanic couples were exposed to NaCl solutions at room temperatures for up to 14 days. For the galvanic couples and environments, the Laplace equation with variable conductivity and reactions was sufficient to model the experimental corrosion damage. Increasing the chloride concentration for the CS/SS galvanic couple, regardless of the anode:cathode ratio, decreased the observed and modeled corrosion damage. Decreasing the anode:cathode ratio (i.e., increasing the cathode length), increased the experimentally observed and modeled corrosion damage. For small anode:cathode ratios, the governing equations deviate over long time periods with the Nernst-Plank equation being conservative. For the Zn/SS galvanic couple, the cathode length controls the dominant cathodic reduction reaction. For small cathode lengths, the hydrogen evolution reaction is dominant. For larger cathode lengths, the oxygen reduction reaction is dominant. The results are discussed with regard to the influence of solution chemistry, ohmic drop, and governing reactions. Overall, validated FEM models were presented, and the resultant models, physics, and mechanisms can be applied to other corrosion scenarios with confidence.

Carbon steel↗

Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Simplified Numerical Approach to Characterize the Thermal Response of a Moving Bed Solar Reactor

Abstract Concentrated solar thermochemical storage in the form of a zero-emission fuel is a promising option to produce long-duration energy storage. Solar fuel is produced using a cavity reactor that captures concentrated solar radiation from a solar field of heliostats. In this paper, heat transfer model of a tubular plug-flow reactor designed and manufactured for a solar fuel production is presented. Experimental data collected from a fixed bed tubular reactor testing are used for model comparison. The system consists of an externally heated tube with counter-current flowing gas and moving solid particles as the heated media. The proposed model simulates the dynamic behavior of temperature profiles of the tube wall, gas, and particles under various gas flowrates and residence times. The heat transfer between gas–wall, solid particle–wall, and gas–solid particle is numerically studied. The model results are compared with the results of experiments done using a 4 kW furnace with a 150 mm heating zone surrounding a horizontal alumina tube (reactor) with 50.8 mm outer diameter and thickness of 3.175 mm. Solid fixed particles of magnesium manganese oxide (MgMn2O4) with the size of 1 mm are packed within the length of 250 mm at the center of the tube length. Simulation results are assessed with respect to fixed bed experimental data for four different gas flowrates, namely, 5, 10, 15, and 20 standard liters per minute of air, and furnace temperatures in the range of 200–1200 °C. The simulation results showed good agreement with maximum steady state error that is less than 6% of those obtained from the experiments for all runs. The proposed model can be implemented as a low-order physical model for the control of temperature inside plug-flow reactors for thermochemical energy storage applications.

Engineering↗

Development and Validation of SAM Multi-dimensional Flow Model for Thermal Mixing and Stratification Modeling

Thermal mixing and stratification in large pools or enclosures are very important phenomena that are critical to nuclear reactor safety. Because of the wide ranges of time and length scales associated with such phenomena, accurate modeling and simulation of thermal mixing and stratification remain as the key unresolved, challenging problems for reactor transient analyses. In traditional system analysis codes, simplified zero-dimensional (0-D) models are widely used for their high numerical efficiency, but they generally suffer from very limited prediction accuracies or range of applicability. Like traditional system analysis codes, the current version of the SAM code has implemented such simplified 0-D and one-dimensional mixing models. On the other hand, high-resolution Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools are often used to model complex thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. They are, however, generally numerically expensive, and they require large amounts of computational resources. It is therefore desirable to implement advanced and efficient thermal mixing and stratification modeling capabilities embedded in a system analysis code. This approach will improve the accuracy of reactor safety analyses when thermal mixing and stratification are involved, and also avoid using the large computational resources needed for high-resolution CFD analysis. Currently, with the support of the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, an effort has been launched to develop and implement a multi-dimensional flow model in the system analysis code SAM, and demonstrate its applications to model thermal mixing and stratification phenomena in large enclosures. The main outcomes of this research and development activity are summarized in this report, which presents an attempt to include a built-in advanced multi-dimensional flow model in a system analysis code with the focus on overcoming the simulation challenges of thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. In this report, we start with the introduction of existing SAM code capabilities to simulate thermal mixing and stratification phenomena, which is followed by a short summary of the multi-dimensional model implemented in the SAM code, including both the physical model and the Finite Element Method code implementation. In this study, two options were implemented in the SAM code to model turbulent flows: a relatively simple built-in turbulence model and an interface to accept externally computed turbulent viscosities (e.g., from a high- resolution CFD simulation). Code validation studies on this newly added capability were then carried out to compare SAM simulation results with experimental data from the SUPERCAVNA facility, which was designed to study the complex flow recirculation and thermal stratification phenomena relevant to sodium fast reactor designs. In this study, one transient and two steady-state test cases were used for code validation. Different approaches have been used to model the complex turbulence flow fields in the SUPERCAVNA facility. A highly simplified zero-equation turbulence model was first used, but it was determined that it is too simple to capture the complex turbulence flow fields in these test cases. Subsequently, the code validation continued with the use of turbulent viscosity data from high-resolution STAR-CCM+ CFD simulations to improve the accuracy of the results. Using this approach, the SAM simulation results showed very good agreement with both the SUPERCAVNA experimental data and STAR-CCM+ simulation results. In this report, we demonstrate the development, implementation, and successful validation of a multi-dimensional flow model in the SAM code, which aims to improve the simulation accuracy for complex thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. Lessons have also been learned, including that in cases where the flow fields are not well predicted by the zero-equation model, the iinput of turbulent viscosities from an external source can enhance the overall predictive capabilities needed to accurately capture complex thermal-hydraulic phenomena. Therefore, future research will be needed to further improve the code’s capabilities, such as by developing a more efficient and robust approach to capture the turbulence effects in the SAM code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Benchmarking and Exploring Parameter Space of the 2-Phase Bubble Tracking Model for Liquid Mercury Target Simulation

High intensity proton pulses strike the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS)’s mercury target to provide bright neutron beams. These strikes deposit extensive energy into the mercury and its steel vessel. Prediction of the resultant loading on the target is difficult when helium gas is intentionally injected into the mercury to reduce the loading and to mitigate the pitting damage on the vessel. A 2-phase material model that incorporates the Rayleigh-Plesset (R-P) model is expected to address this complex multi-physics dynamics problem by including the bubble dynamics in the liquid mercury. We present a study comparing the measured target strains in the SNS target station with the simulation results of the solid mechanics simulation framework. We investigate a wide range of various physical model parameters, including the number of bubble families, bubble size distribution, viscosity, surface tension, etc. to understand their impact on simulation accuracy. Our initial findings reveal that using 8-10 bubble families in the model renders a simulation strain envelope that covers the experimental ones. Further optimization studies are planned to predict the strain response more accurately.

Lin, Lianshan↗

Development of an Enhanced Radiation Physics Toolset for Modeling Spectral and Imaging Signatures in the Warm Dense Matter Experiments

Radiative and atomic processes in plasmas play a critical role in a wide variety of high energy density laboratory plasma (HEDLP) experiments. The emission, absorption, and transport of radiation can strongly affect the overall energetics and evolution of such plasmas. In addition, radiation-based diagnostics – including imaging, spectroscopy, and absolute flux measurements – are widely used to determine key features of HEDLPs. To advance our understanding of HEDLP science, it is vital to have high-fidelity computational physics tools that have well-tested radiation physics modeling, and that are readily accessible to researchers in the HEDLP community. Simulations play an extremely important role for planning and designing the experiments, as well as for post-experiment data analysis. Prism Computational Sciences develops software that is used by National Laboratories and universities (including five members of LaserNetUS network). Prominent examples of such research efforts include z-pinch and short-pulse laser experiments designed to study the basic physics of photoionized plasmas and photoionization fronts, as well as their application to astrophysical plasmas. The main effort was dedicated to the development of non-equilibrium equation-of-state (EOS) models within the HELIOS-CR code, a hydrodynamics code with inline collisional-radiative atomic kinetics. Gas cell experiments on Z and Omega demonstrated the importance of non-equilibrium effects on atomic kinetics in photoionized plasmas. Recent proof-of-principle experiments on Omega EP confirmed the advantages of using a short-pulse laser to create an intense radiation drive, leading to additional experiments being proposed. Photoionization front experiments at LLE also emphasizes the importance of radiation and atomic physics. In both studies, HELIOS-CR simulations played a crucial role in computing non-equilibrium opacities and ionization distributions. A newly developed non-LTE EOS model will help addressing possible non-equilibrium effects, on for example specific heat, and their influence in plasma evolution. Prism also implemented support for open-source atomic data generated by the Flexible Atomic Code. This allows researchers to generate custom atomic tables and use them within the complex framework of simulation tools developed by Prism. The ability to use open-source atomic data would be extremely valuable for hydrodynamics and spectroscopic simulations that include high-Z materials, e.g., picosecond x-ray pulse generation experiments. Support for new atomic structures was fully implemented, and the data can be used by all simulation tools developed at Prism: radiation-hydrodynamics, imaging and spectroscopy, EOS and opacity. The development resulted in a significant fidelity enhancement to the simulations tools developed by Prism that are currently used in other cutting-edge experiments including: opacity measurement experiments performed to both understand the basic radiative and atomic properties of plasmas as well as provide data for more accurately modeling the internal structure of the Sun and other stars, high-intensity short-pulse laser experiments performed to develop short-wavelength light sources for use as backlighters and to investigate fast ignition concepts for inertial fusion energy; capsule implosion experiments designed to develop inertial fusion as an energy source, etc.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Metal-insulator transition in transition metal dichalcogenide heterobilayer moiré superlattices

Moiré superlattices formed in two-dimensional semiconductor heterobilayers provide a new realization of Hubbard model physics in which the number of electrons per effective atom can be tuned at will. Here we report on an exact diagonalization study of the electronic properties of half-filled narrow moiré bands in which correlation strengths are varied by changing twist angles or interaction strengths. We construct a phase diagram for the bilayer, identifying where the metal-insulator phase transition occurs, estimating the sizes of the charge gaps in the insulating phase, and commenting on the nature of the transition and the importance of subdominant interaction parameters.

2-dimensional systems↗

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Physics-Informed Persistence Models for Simultaneously Forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI

Observation-based statistical models have been widely used in forecasting solar energy; however, existing models often lack a clear relation to physics and are limited largely to global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts over relatively short time horizons (< 1 hour). Incorporating physics into observation-based models, increasing forecast time horizons and developing a model system for forecasting not only GHI but also direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) remain challenging, especially under cloudy conditions because of complex cloud-radiation interactions. This work attempts to address these challenges by developing a hierarchy of four new physics-informed persistence models that can be used to simultaneously forecast GHI, DNI and DHI. The decade-long measurements (1998 to 2014) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)'s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site are used to evaluate the performance of the new models. Overall, the results show that the new physics-informed forecast models generally outperform the simple and smart persistence models, and improve the forecast accuracy at lead times from 1.25 hours up to 6 hours. Further analysis reveals that the forecast error is highly related to the error and temporal variability of the assumed cloud predictor. The best model for forecasting different radiative components can be explained by the relationship between solar irradiances and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗