Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Prediction systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Finally, findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preclinical tumor organoid models in personalized cancer therapy: Not everyone fits the mold

Highlights: • In personalized cancer medicine, each patient receives a specific treatment. • The tumor microenvironment and interpersonal differences can affect treatment. • Organoid culture systems fully recapitulate the tumor microenvironments. In contrast to conventional cancer treatment, in personalized cancer medicine each patient receives a specific treatment. The response to therapy, clinical outcomes, and tumor behavior such as metastases, tumor progression, carcinogenesis can be significantly affected by the heterogeneous tumor microenvironment (TME) and interpersonal differences. Therefore, using native tumor microenvironment mimicking models is necessary to improving personalized cancer therapy. Both in vitro 2D cell culture and in vivo animal models poorly recapitulate the heterogeneous tumor (immune) microenvironments of native tumors. The development of 3D culture models, native tumor microenvironment mimicking models, made it possible to evaluate the chemoresistance of tumor tissue and the functionality of drugs in the presence of cell-extracellular matrix and cell-cell interactions in a 3D construction. Various personalized tumor models have been designed to preserving the native tumor microenvironment, including patient-derived tumor xenografts and organoid culture strategies. In this review, we will discuss the patient-derived organoids as a native tumor microenvironment mimicking model in personalized cancer therapy. In addition, we will also review the potential and the limitations of organoid culture systems for predicting patient outcomes and preclinical drug screening. Finally, we will discuss immunotherapy drug screening in tumor organoids by using microfluidic technology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mixed-Integer Linear Programming Formulation with Embedded Machine Learning Surrogates for the Design of Chemical Process Families

In previous work, we introduced process family design. The main idea is to design a platform of common elements, and, allowing us to capture additional cost savings, simultaneously design a family of processes, and reducing both engineering and deployment timelines. We formulate this as an optimization problem, specifically a nonlinear generalized disjunctive program (GDP). We have proposed two approaches for reformulating and solving this problem: one based on full-discretization of the design space and one that uses Machine Learning (ML) surrogates to replace the nonlinear process models. Using ML surrogates to predict required system costs and performance indicators allows us to reformulate the nonlinearities in the GDP generate an efficient MILP formulation. In this work, we apply the ML surrogate approach to two case studies. One case study involves designing a family of carbon capture systems to cover a set of different flue gas flow rates and inlet CO 2 concentrations, where we consider the absorber and stripper as common unit module types. The second case study focuses on a water-desalination process, where we design a family of these processes for a variety of salt concentrations and flow rates. In both of these case studies, we demonstrate a scalable optimization approach that enables the design of multiple processes simultaneously, reducing the time-to-market and overall costs by maximizing the cost savings due to both economies of scale and economies of numbers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

First-Principles-Based Machine Learning Models for Phase Behavior and Transport Properties of CO 2

In this work, we construct distinct first-principles-based machine-learning models of CO 2 , reproducing the potential energy surface of the PBE-D3, BLYP-D3, SCAN and SCAN-rvv10 approximations of density functional theory. Here we employ the Deep Potential methodology to develop the models and consequently achieve a significant computational efficiency over ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) that allows for larger system sizes and time scales to be explored. Although our models are trained only with liquid phase configurations, they are able to simulate a stable interfacial system and predict vapor-liquid equilibrium properties, in good agreement with results from the literature. Because of the computational efficiency of the models, we are also able to obtain transport properties, such as viscosity and diffusion coefficients. We find that the SCAN-based model presents a temperature shift in the position of the critical point, while the SCAN-rvv10-based model shows improvement but still exhibits a temperature shift that remains approximately constant for all properties investigated in this work. We find that the BLYP-D3-based model generally performs better for liquid phase and vapor-liquid equilibrium properties, but the PBE-D3-based model is better suited for predicting transport properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stressors Reveal Ecosystems' Hidden Characteristics

Abstract Vegetation responds dynamically to local microclimates at both short and long time scales via mechanisms ranging from physiological behaviors, such as stomatal closure, to acclimation and adaptation. These responses influence the carbon, water, and energy cycles directly and are therefore crucial to understanding and predicting Earth system responses to a changing climate. Several recent studies have demonstrated that differences in microclimate can induce structural and functional acclimations, and potentially adaptations, within the same ecosystem. Such microclimate divergence can be caused by variability in slopes, disturbance history, or even localized resource availability. Ecosystem stressors such as low soil water availability, limited photoperiod, or high vapor pressure deficit have been shown to reveal the large impact of the subtle differences within these systems such as the number of sun versus shade leaves or differences in whole‐plant water acquisition and use. These findings highlight the linkages between plant canopy structure and ecosystem function, alongside the need for comprehensive analyses of vegetation within the broader context of its environment. This commentary addresses some of the key implications of ecosystem stress responses and accompanying acclimations across three ecosystem types for ecosystem ecology, plant physiology, ecohydrology and trait‐based modeling of vegetation‐climate dynamics.

Matheny, Ashley M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extraordinary phase transition revealed in a van der Waals antiferromagnet

While the surface-bulk correspondence has been ubiquitously shown in topological phases, the relationship between surface and bulk in Landau-like phases is much less explored. Theoretical investigations since 1970s for semi-infinite systems have predicted the possibility of the surface order emerging at a higher temperature than the bulk, clearly illustrating a counterintuitive situation and greatly enriching phase transitions. But experimental realizations of this prediction remain missing. Here, we demonstrate the higher-temperature surface and lower-temperature bulk phase transitions in CrSBr, a van der Waals (vdW) layered antiferromagnet. We leverage the surface sensitivity of electric dipole second harmonic generation (SHG) to resolve surface magnetism, the bulk nature of electric quadrupole SHG to probe bulk spin correlations, and their interference to capture the two magnetic domain states. Our density functional theory calculations show the suppression of ferromagnetic-antiferromagnetic competition at the surface is responsible for this enhanced surface magnetism. Our results not only show counterintuitive, richer phase transitions in vdW magnets, but also provide viable ways to enhance magnetism in their 2D form.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

An analytical model of “Electron-Only” magnetic reconnection rates

Abstract “Electron-only” reconnection, which is both uncoupled from the surrounding ions and much faster than standard reconnection, is arguably ubiquitous in turbulence. One critical step to understanding the rate in this novel regime is to model the outflow speed that limits the transport of the magnetic flux, which is super ion Alfvénic but significantly lower than the electron Alfvén speed based on the asymptotic reconnecting field. Here we develop a simple model to determine this limiting speed by taking into account the multiscale nature of reconnection, the Hall-mediated electron outflow speed, and the pressure buildup within the small system. The predicted scalings of rates and various key quantities compare well with fully kinetic simulations and can be useful for interpreting the observations of NASA’s Magnetospheric-Multiscale (MMS) mission and other ongoing missions.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fusion gain from cylindrical liner-driven implosions of field reversed configurations

MagLIF experiments [M.R. Gomez et al., Phys. Plasmas 22, 056306 (2015)] on Z have demonstrated the basic principles of Magneto-Inertial Fusion (MIF) for wall confined plasmas. Other MIF schemes have been proposed based on the liner implosion of closed field magnetically confined plasmas such as Field Reversed Configurations (FRCs) [T. P. Intrator et al., Phys. Plasmas 15, 042505 (2008)]. We present a semi-analytical model of liner driven FRC implosions that predicts the fusion gain of such systems. The model predicts a fusion gain near unity for an FRC imploded by a liner driven by the Z Machine. We show that FRCs could be formed and imploded at the Z facility using the AutoMag liner concept [S. A. Slutz et al., Phys. Plasmas 24, 012704 (2017)]. Furthermore, an initial bias magnetic field can be supplied by the external magnets used in MagLIF experiments. The reverse field is then supplied by an AutoMag liner, which has helical conducting paths imbedded in an insulating substance. Experiments [Shipley et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 052705 (2019)] have demonstrated that AutoMag can generate magnetic fields greater than 30 Tesla inside of the liner. We have performed 2D Radiation MHD simulations of the formation and implosion of an FRC, which are in good agreement with the analytical model. The FRC formation process could be studied on small pulsed power machines delivering about 1 MA.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intrinsic synaptic plasticity of ferroelectric field effect transistors for online learning

Nanoelectronic devices emulating neuro-synaptic functionalities through their intrinsic physics at low operating energies is imperative toward the realization of brain-like neuromorphic computers. In this work, we leverage the non-linear voltage dependent partial polarization switching of a ferroelectric field effect transistor to mimic plasticity characteristics of biological synapses. Here, we provide experimental measurements of the synaptic characteristics for a 28nm high-k metal gate technology based device and develop an experimentally calibrated device model for large-scale system performance prediction. Decoupled read-write paths, ultra-low programming energies and the possibility of arranging such devices in a cross-point architecture demonstrate the synaptic efficacy of the device. Our hardware-algorithm co-design analysis reveals that the intrinsic plasticity of the ferroelectric devices has potential to enable unsupervised local learning in edge devices with limited training data

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability

Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Latent Twins

Over the past decade, scientific machine learning has transformed the development of mathematical and computational frameworks for analyzing, modeling, and predicting complex systems. From inverse problems to numerical partial differential equations (PDEs), dynamical systems, and model reduction, these advances have pushed the boundaries of what can be simulated. Yet they have often progressed in parallel, with representation learning and algorithmic solution methods evolving largely as separate pipelines. With Latent Twins, we propose a unifying mathematical framework that creates a hidden surrogate in latent space for the underlying equations. Whereas digital twins mirror physical systems in the digital world, Latent Twins mirror mathematical systems in a learned latent space governed by operators. Through this lens, classical modeling, inversion, model reduction, and operator approximation all emerge as special cases of a single principle. We establish the fundamental approximation properties of Latent Twins for both ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and PDEs and demonstrate the framework across three representative settings: (i) canonical ODEs, capturing diverse dynamical regimes; (ii) a PDE benchmark using the shallow-water equations, contrasting Latent Twin simulations with deep operator network and forecasts with a four-dimensional variational method baseline; and (iii) a challenging real-data geopotential reanalysis dataset, reconstructing and forecasting from sparse, noisy observations. Latent Twins provide a compact, interpretable surrogate for solution operators that evaluate across arbitrary time gaps in a single-shot, while remaining compatible with scientific pipelines such as assimilation, control, and uncertainty quantification. Looking forward, this framework offers scalable, theory-grounded surrogates that bridge data-driven representation learning and classical scientific modeling across disciplines.

Latent Twins↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Use of Satellite Nightlights for Power Outages Prediction

Hurricanes are a dominant disaster in the Caribbean, always causing serious power outages throughout the islands. Hurricane Maria was a prime example, causing unimaginable destruction of the power infrastructure of Puerto Rico (PR). Consequently, one month after the hurricane landfall, approximately 80% of the population was still without power. After an event of such massive destruction, the electric power restoration process progresses very slowly. This timeline can be improved using power outage (PO) forecast models that help identify the vulnerable places before the hurricane landfall. Generally, these models are trained with historical power outages records, associated data on weather conditions, and additional information about the natural and built environments. However, PO records are often difficult to acquire, and, in many instances, the power utility companies may not record them. This study utilizes a satellite-based Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night light data product as a surrogate for the power delivery to predict hurricane-induced PO in areas having limited to nonexistent historical data records. The processed satellite data is then used along with geographic variables, and simulated weather data to formulate machine learning-based algorithms to predict PO for future hurricane events. These models are applied and validated in the context of the PR catastrophic storm, Hurricane Maria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Digital Twin for an Inverter-Based Resource Power Plant: Real-time data streaming unlocks situation awareness

Here, this study presents the development and successful implementation of a digital twin specifically designed for a grid-connected IBR power plant. By integrating a reduced-order model of the IBR system and dynamically updating the grid impedance with real-time data, the digital twin effectively captures and replicates the behavior of the physical system. Its accuracy and reliability are validated through critical test scenarios, including a three-phase fault and a line-tripping event. The results confirm that the digital twin closely emulates its physical counterpart, demonstrating its strong potential for real-time analysis, system monitoring, and predictive decision making in modern power systems.

Digital twins↗
DOE OSTI2021

World Record Demonstration of > 30% Thermophotovoltaic Conversion Efficiency

Thermophotovoltaic (TPV) devices are solid-state heat engines that convert thermal radiation into electricity using semiconductor diodes, and have applications in energy storage, primary power conversion, and waste heat recovery. Higher temperature emitters and wider band gap photovoltaics (PVs) generally afford higher TPV efficiencies. High temperature emitters are accessible in thermal energy storage applications. We have demonstrated a world record 31% +/- 2% TPV conversion efficiency with a 0.9 cm2 GaAs-based PV device under a 2430 °C thermal emitter, producing an electrical output power of 2.23 W. Critical to the result was the cell’s high reflectance of photon energies below the device band gap. Unlike solar PV, for which sub-band gap (SBG) light is lost, a TPV cell can reflect and recycle SBG light to the thermal emitter. The demonstration was made on a custom-built measurement platform in which a ~100 cm2 graphite thermal emitter was heated under vacuum up to 2430 °C. The TPV efficiency was evaluated by comparing the measured electrical output power of the TPV with the calorimetrically measured total net power incident on the cell. The measured TPV efficiency as a function of thermal emitter temperature was corroborated by our full system modeling predictions. As far as the authors are aware, this is the highest TPV conversion efficiency ever measured, and device improvements should yield > 40% efficiency in the near future.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cryogenic Design and Thermal Analysis of EIC Central Detector (ePIC) Solenoid Magnet (MARCO)

The Electron Ion Collider (EIC) physics program utilizes a 2.0 T superconducting magnet at the heart of its ePIC detector system. This approximately 3.5 m long and 2.84 m diameter warm bore magnet has a 20 tons cold mass which is conduction-cooled using liquid helium at 4.5 K. A closed loop active thermosiphon system is chosen to facilitate the cooling and to maintain a minimum of 2 K temperature margin on the peak operating temperature (4.7 K) of the superconductor. Here, this paper presents the cryogenic design of the cooling system and the thermal analysis of the solenoid. A Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to quantify the performance of the two–phase closed thermosiphon system and predict the temperature gradient on the cold mass.

Gopinath, Sandesh [Thomas Jefferson National Accel↗