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At least 397 records · Page 22

Mallat Scattering Transformation based surrogate for Magnetohydrodynamics

Abstract A Machine and Deep Learning (MLDL) methodology is developed and applied to give a high fidelity, fast surrogate for 2D resistive MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) simulations of Magnetic Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) implosions. The resistive MHD code is used to generate an ensemble of implosions with different liner aspect ratios, initial gas preheat temperatures (that is, different adiabats), and different liner perturbations. The liner density and magnetic field as functions of x , y , and z were generated. The Mallat Scattering Transformation (MST) is taken of the logarithm of both fields and a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) is done on the logarithm of the MST of both fields. The fields are projected onto the PCA vectors and a small number of these PCA vector components are kept. Singular Value Decompositions of the cross correlation of the input parameters to the output logarithm of the MST of the fields, and of the cross correlation of the SVD vector components to the PCA vector components are done. This allows the identification of the PCA vectors vis-a-vis the input parameters. Finally, a Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network with ReLU activation and a simple three layer encoder/decoder architecture is trained on this dataset to predict the PCA vector components of the fields as a function of time. Details of the implosion, stagnation, and the disassembly are well captured. Examination of the PCA vectors and a permutation importance analysis of the MLP show definitive evidence of an inverse turbulent cascade into a dipole emergent behavior. The orientation of the dipole is set by the initial liner perturbation. The analysis is repeated with a version of the MST which includes phase, called Wavelet Phase Harmonics (WPH). While WPH do not give the physical insight of the MST, they can and are inverted to give field configurations as a function of time, including field-to-field correlations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Detecting anomalous packets in network transfers: investigations using PCA, autoencoder and isolation forest in TCP

Large-scale scientific workflows rely heavily on high-performance file transfers. These transfers require strict quality parameters such as guaranteed bandwidth, no packet loss or data duplication. To have successful file transfers, methods such as predetermined thresholds and statistical analysis need to be done to determine abnormal patterns. Network administrators routinely monitor and analyze network data for diagnosing and alleviating these, making decisions based on their experience. However, as networks grow and become complex, monitoring large data files and quickly processing them, makes it improbable to identify errors and rectify these. Abnormal file transfers have been classified by simply setting alert thresholds, via tools such as PerfSonar and TCP statistics (Tstat). This paper investigates the feasibility of unsupervised feature extraction methods for identifying network anomaly patterns with three unsupervised classification methods—principal component analysis, autoencoder and isolation forest. Here, we collect file transfer statistics from two experiment sets—synthetic iPerf generated traffic and 1000 Genome workflow runs, with synthetically introduced anomalies. Our results show that while PCA and a simple autoencoder finds it difficult to detect clusters, the tree-variant isolation forest is able to identify anomalous packets by breaking down TCP traces into tree classes early.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Queue wait time prediction in high performance computing (HPC) systems

High Performance Computing (HPC) systems are critical enablers for groundbreaking scientific research across various domains. Efficient resource allocation, facilitated by job scheduling, is paramount for maximizing the utilization of HPC systems. However, the variability in wait times for queued jobs poses challenges for users, necessitating accurate job wait time estimation. This paper explores the influence of job characteristics, including job size (the number of nodes requested and walltime), the queue to which the job is submitted and other resource requirements, on job wait times in leadership-class HPC systems. Focusing on the Theta Cray XC40 and Polaris machines at Argonne National Laboratory, the study evaluates the performance of different supervised learning algorithms in predicting job wait times. It also evaluates the impact of data preprocessing, including outlier detection, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and feature selection, on the performance of wait time prediction models. The findings reveal insights into the relationship between job characteristics and wait times, offering a foundation for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing user experience. The methodologies and tools developed in this study are adaptable to other leadership-class HPC systems, providing a valuable contribution to the broader HPC community aiming to improve job scheduling efficiency and user satisfaction.

Okafor, Nwamaka↗

Data Science Techniques, Assumptions, and Challenges in Alloy Clustering and Property Prediction

Data analytics methods have been increasingly applied to understanding materials chemistry, processing due to the manufacturing approach, and uni-axial and cyclic property relationships in the highly complex space of alloy design. There are several benefits to applying data analytics to this space, including the ability to manage non-linearities in the responses of the alloy attributes and the resulting mechanical properties. However, key difficulties in applying and understanding the results of data analytics include the often lack of reported assumptions and data processing steps necessary to improve interpretation and reproducibility in derived results. In this work, the methods used to generate clustering and correlation analyses for experimental 9% Cr ferritic-martensitic steel data were investigated and the resulting implications for mechanical property predictions were assessed. This work uses principal component analysis, partitioning around medoids, t-SNE, and k-means clustering to investigate trends in composition, processing and microstructure information with creep and tensile properties, building on work done previously using a smaller version of the same dataset. The initial assumptions, preprocessing steps and methods are investigated and outlined in order to depict the fine level of detail required to convey the steps taken to process data and produce analytical results. Here, the variations in the resulting analyses are explored due to the influence of new and more varied data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessment of Outliers in Alloy Datasets Using Unsupervised Techniques

We report advancements in data analytics techniques have enabled complex, disparate datasets to be leveraged for alloy design. Identifying outliers in a dataset can reduce noise, identify erroneous and/or anomalous records, prevent overfitting, and improve model assessment and optimization. In this work, two alloy datasets (9-12% Cr ferritic martensitic steels, and austenitic stainless steels) have been assessed for outliers using unsupervised techniques and supplemented with domain knowledge. Principal component analysis and k-means clustering were applied to the data, and points were assessed as outliers based on their distance away from other points in the cluster and from other points in the dataset. The outlier characteristics were investigated to determine both cluster-specific and overall trends in the properties of the outlier points. The approach demonstrated here is extensible to other alloy datasets for outlier identification and evaluation to improve the reliability of machine learning and modeling predictions for advanced alloy design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards an Understanding of Oxidative Damage in an a-L-Arabinofuranosidase of Trichoderma reesei : a Molecular Dynamics Approach

Trichoderma reesei is a ‘workhorse’ fungus that produces glycosyl hydrolases (e.g., cellulases) at high titers for use in industrial bioprocessing. In this study, we focused on two side-chain hemicellulases, a-L-arabinofuranosidases and a-D-galactosidases, which are important for the treatment of lignocellulosic biomass, but susceptible to oxidative damage that can occur during industrial processing. The molecular details that render these enzymes inactive have not yet been identified. To approach this issue, we used proteomics to identify amino acid residues that were oxidized after a relevant oxidative treatment (Fenton reaction). These oxidative modifications were included in the 3D-protein structures, and using molecular dynamics simulations, we then studied the behaviors of non-modified and oxidized enzymes. These simulations showed significant alterations of the conformational stability of proteins when oxidized, as evidenced by changes in root mean square deviation (RMSD) and principal component analyses (PCA) trajectories. Likewise, enzyme-ligand interactions such as hydrogen bonds were greatly reduced in quantity and quality in the oxidized proteins. Finally, free energy landscape plots showed that there was a more rugged energy surface in the oxidized proteins, implying a less favorable reaction pathway. These results reveal the basis for loss of function in these carbohydrate active enzymes (CAZYs) in T. reesei.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

From occupants to occupants: A review of the occupant information understanding for building HVAC occupant-centric control

Occupants are the core of the built environment. Traditional Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) systems operate with predefined schedules and maximum occupancy assumptions with no consideration of specific occupant information. These generalized assumptions usually do not align with the actual demand and result in over-conditioning and occupant discomfort. In recent years, with the aid of Information & Communication Technology (ICT) and Computer Science (CS), it is possible to acquire real-time and accurate occupant information to satisfy the exact thermal requirement through specific HVAC control in one particular built environment. This mechanism is called HVAC “Occupant-centric Control (OCC).” HVAC OCC strategy starts with collecting the occupant’s information (e.g., presence/absence) and then applies it to meet the occupant’s requirement (e.g., thermal comfort). However, even though some research studies and field pilot demonstrations have been devoted to the field of OCC, there is a lack of systematic knowledge about occupant data, which is the principal component of OCC for HVAC researchers and practitioners. To fill this gap, this review paper discusses OCC with a particular emphasis on occupant information and investigates how this information can assist HVAC operation in providing an acceptable built environment in required spaces during the required time. Finally, we provide a fine-grained, comprehensive picture of occupant information, discuss its features, the modalities of information feed-in into the HVAC control, and the application of commonly utilized occupant information for OCC.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Parametric, Data-Driven, Non-Intrusive Reduced-Order Model Framework for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Voids

The influence of the internal structure at micrometer length scales on the deformation of polycrystalline materials can be effectively captured using crystal plasticity finite element methods (CPFEM). However, the complexity and nonlinearity of the deformation equations CPFEM solves demand significant computational power and resources to achieve accurate predictions, limiting its broader application. To address this challenge, we have identified a reduced-order representation of the complex data in order to establish a computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) and drastically reduce the computational expense of CPFEM. Specifically, in this work, we developed a parametric, data-driven, and non-intrusive ROM framework for CPFEM using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and sparse variational Gaussian process (SVGP) regression for single-crystal microstructures under tensile loading conditions. The developed protocol enables one to compress field into a latent/low-dimensional space described by principal component analysis (PCA) via the singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm. As a result, the high-dimensional data are reduced to a significantly smaller amount of dimensions with POD bases and POD coefficients. Furthermore, we deployed an ensemble of SVGPs—extended from the classical Gaussian process (GP) regression for scalability and handling big data—in a massively parallel manner to train and predict latent POD coefficients using known POD bases from a set of previously obtained simulations results. Lastly, using the predicted POD coefficients, we reconstructed the full-field results and showed reasonable agreement compared with the true values obtained from running CPFEM. The developed framework is validated with a set of CPFEM simulations of a single embedded void in single-crystal aluminum alloy. While the framework is broadly applicable, this work specifically focuses on single-crystal microstructures, a single load case (e.g., tensile), and a specific void geometry (spherical).

Anisotropy↗

Petrology and geochemistry of the Middle Pennsylvanian (Langsettian) Clintwood coalbed, Pike County, Kentucky

Abstract The Middle Pennsylvanian, Langsettian sub-stage Clintwood coal, along with its correlatives, was one of the more important energy resources in eastern Kentucky. The coal thickens from the NE-SW-trending Belfry anticline in central Pike County to the southeast, towards the Virginia-Kentucky border. Much of the thickness increase is in the bright lithotypes below a dull lithology. The bright lithologies transition from a bright clarain + vitrain + fusain lithology to a clarain + fusain lithology to the southeast. Half of the lithotypes in the three analyzed sections exceed 1000-µg/g Rare earth elements + Y + Sc (REYSc) (ash basis). The La N /Sm N vs. Gd N /Yb N and La N /Sm N vs. Ce N /Ce N * plots suggest that the top lithotype may have had best indication of an oxidizing environment. Positive Gd N /Gd N * and Eu N /Eu N * in some of the lithologies suggests that there may have been a hydrothermal influence in the sediment sources and/or in the diagenesis of the coal. Consideration of La N /Sm N and Zr (µg/g; ash basis), Zr vs. Sr, and V/Cr vs. inertinite/(inertinite + vitrinite) indicates that the dull lithotypes existed in a distinct geochemical environment compared to the brighter lithotypes. The isolation of the dull lithotypes from the bright lithotypes is supported by principal components analysis on inertinite/(inertinite + vitrinite), La N /Sm N , V/Cr, Sr, and either Zr or Ln(100(TiO 2 )/Al 2 O 3 ).

Hower, James C. (ORCID:0000000346942776)↗

Influence of geometry on columnar to equiaxed transition during electron beam powder bed fusion of IN718

Correlation between spot-melt scan parameters (linear spot-density aka areal energy density), build geometry, and solidification microstructure evolution (columnar vs equiaxed) in a powder bed fusion technology is investigated. It is shown that to maintain the equiaxed solidification microstructure evolution in electron beam powder bed additive manufacturing (AM), the areal energy density per layer needs to be scaled with respect to the 2D cross-sectional area of the layer being melted. Samples with two different cross-sectional areas (40 × 40 mm and 20 × 20 mm) have been fabricated with varying areal energy densities. For a given square cross-section (20 × 20 mm), increasing the areal energy density (4.8 MJ/sq.m to 14.7 MJ/sq.m) transitioned the solidification microstructure from columnar to equiaxed. The observed microstructure data (Electron Back Scattered Diffraction - EBSD) is quantified by calculating the principal component (PC) score using a spatial statistics methodology. The sample with equiaxed grains is found to have a low PC score while the sample with columnar grain had a high PC score. A semi-analytical model is used to simulate the heat transfer and the local solidification conditions as a function of processing parameters (linear spot-density). The result from the heat transfer model is correlated with previously quantified microstructure data. Space-Time analysis of the melt pattern is done and correlated with the observed microstructure. In addition, from the findings, appropriate parameters have been used to additively manufacture a turbine blade with site-specific or hybrid solidification microstructure (traditional fabrication possible via a patented method of localized cold working and heat treatment).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Non-intrusive reduced order modeling of natural convection in porous media using convolutional autoencoders: Comparison with linear subspace techniques

Natural convection in porous media is a highly nonlinear multiphysical problem relevant to many engineering applications (e.g., the process of CO 2 sequestration). Here, we extend and present a non-intrusive reduced order model of natural convection in porous media employing deep convolutional autoencoders for the compression and reconstruction and either radial basis function (RBF) interpolation or artificial neural networks (ANNs) for mapping parameters of partial differential equations (PDEs) on the corresponding nonlinear manifolds. To benchmark our approach, we also describe linear compression and reconstruction processes relying on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and ANNs. Further, we present comprehensive comparisons among different models through three benchmark problems. The reduced order models, linear and nonlinear approaches, are much faster than the finite element model, obtaining a maximum speed-up of 7 × 10 6 because our framework is not bound by the Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy condition; hence, it could deliver quantities of interest at any given time contrary to the finite element model. Our model’s accuracy still lies within a relative error of 7% in the worst-case scenario. We illustrate that, in specific settings, the nonlinear approach outperforms its linear counterpart and vice versa. We hypothesize that a visual comparison between principal component analysis (PCA) and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) could indicate which method will perform better prior to employing any specific compression strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep learning to estimate permeability using geophysical data

Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a popular geophysical method to estimate three-dimensional (3D) permeability fields from electrical potential difference measurements. Traditional inversion and data assimilation methods are used to ingest this ERT data into hydrogeophysical models to estimate permeability. Due to ill-posedness and the curse of dimensionality, existing inversion strategies provide poor estimates and low resolution of the 3D permeability field. Recent advances in deep learning provide us with powerful algorithms to overcome this challenge. This paper presents a deep learning (DL) framework to estimate the 3D subsurface permeability from time-lapse ERT data. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework, we train DL-enabled inverse models on simulation data. Each measurement in both synthetic and field data is standardized by removing the mean and scaling the time-series to unit variance. This pre-processing step is necessary to bring simulation data closer to field observations. Subsurface process models based on hydrogeophysics are used to generate this synthetic data. Training performed on limited simulation data resulted in the DL model over-fitting. An advanced data augmentation based on mixup is implemented to generate additional training samples to overcome this issue. This mixup technique creates weakly labeled (low-fidelity) samples from strongly labeled (high-fidelity) data. The weakly labeled training data is then used to develop DL-enabled inverse models and reduce over-fitting. As both time-lapse ERT (1133048 features/realization) and 3D permeability (585453 features/realization) data samples are from a high-dimensional space, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to reduce dimensionality. Encoded ERT and encoded permeability are generated using the trained PCA estimators. A deep neural network is then trained to map the encoded ERT to encoded permeability. This mixup training and unsupervised learning allowed us to build a fast and reasonably accurate DL-based inverse model under limited simulation data. Results show that proposed weak supervised learning can capture salient spatial features in the 3D permeability field. Quantitatively, the average mean squared error (in terms of the natural log) on the strongly labeled training, validation, and test datasets is less than 0.5. The R 2 -score (global metric) is greater than 0.75, and the percent error in each cell (local metric) is less than 10%. Finally, an added benefit in terms of computational cost is that the proposed DL-based inverse model is at least O(10 4 ) times faster than running a forward model once it is trained. Data generation, DL model training, and hyperparameter tuning to identify optimal neural network architectures utilized high-performance computing resources while the DL inference is performed on a standard laptop. Approximately, O(10 5 ) processor hours are used for generating data and DL tuning and training. We acknowledge that the data generation and DL model development are expensive. But once a DL model is trained, it can be re-used for inversion rapidly for the given system, with set physics and domain. Note that traditional inversion may require multiple forward model simulations (e.g., in the order of 10 to 1000), which are very expensive. This computational savings ≈ O(10 5 ) – O(10 7 )) makes the proposed DL-based inverse model attractive for subsurface imaging and real-time ERT monitoring applications due to fast and yet reasonably accurate estimations of permeability field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Maximizing machine learning interatomic potential transferability for the discovery of the novel stellated octadecagon Bi18-Pt24 cage structure

Achieving true transferability remains the central challenge for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials (ML-IAPs) in modeling complex bimetallic nanoclusters across their vast potential energy surfaces. We systematically investigate data selection strategies to optimize the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) potential for the Bi-Pt nanoclusters by comparing three innovative sampling methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA)/k-means (structural diversity), t-distributedStochasticNeighborEmbedding (t-SNE)/k-means (force-space diversity), and hierarchical clustering. Quantitatively, the PCA/k-means strategy proved most effective for global accuracy, yielding the lowest force errors and achieving energy root mean square errors (RMSE) values competitive with Density Functional Theory (DFT), demonstrating excellent accuracy (19.16meV/atom). Structural validation on 34 unique DFT-optimized isomers further confirmed the potential’s high fidelity, with the best model PCA/k-means reproducing structures with an average root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 0.10 Å. However, the t-SNE methods, by maximizing diversity in the force space, demonstrated superior extrapolative power, leading to the more precise prediction of a novel stellated octadecagon Bi18⁢Pt24 cage structure, demonstrating the potential for exploring previously unseen morphologies. Our results establish a clear methodology for strategic data sampling that successfully maximizes ML-IAP transferability, providing an accurate and computationally efficient tool that accelerates the theoretical discovery of complex bimetallic architectures.

Vangheluwe, Raphaël [Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS↗

Sizing ramping reserve using probabilistic solar forecasts: A data-driven method

Ramping products have been introduced or proposed in several U.S. power markets to mitigate the impact of load and renewable uncertainties on market efficiency and reliability. Current methods often rely on historical data to estimate the requirements of ramping products and fail to take into account the effects of the latest weather conditions and their uncertainties, which could lead to overly conservative or insufficient requirements. This study proposes a k-nearest-neighbor-based method to give weather-informed estimates of ramping needs based on short-term probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts. Forecasts from multiple sites are employed in conjunction with principal component analysis to derive numerical classifiers to characterize system-level weather conditions. In addition, we develop a data-driven method to optimize the model parameters in a rolling-forward manner. By using real-world data from the California Independent System Operator, we design two metrics to evaluate method performance: 1) frequency of shortage and 2) oversupply of ramping product. Our proposed method presents advantages in comparison with the baseline and a set of benchmark methods: without compromising system reliability, it reduces system ramping requirements by up to 25%, therefore improving both system reliability and economics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Aspects of rare earth element enrichment in Allegheny Plateau coals, Pennsylvania, USA

The Allegheny Plateau in western Pennsylvania, western Maryland, and northern West Virginia has relatively flat-lying strata with southwest-northeast-trending anticlines cored by splay faults originating from the thrust faults and southeast-northwest-trending lineaments. The lineaments define both the structural relief of the anticlines and the coal rank. Coal rank in the Pennsylvanian Allegheny Group coals is medium volatile bituminous in the region of less-prominent structural relief and low volatile bituminous in the region with more pronounced anticlines. Zinc and Cl exhibit high values in coals in the vicinity of the lineaments. Although coal rank was not a parameter in the Principal components analysis, the highest rank coals clustered together in a quadrant defined, in part, by the Zn concentration. Zinc was selected as a parameter due to its possible link with hydrothermal mineralization and Zr and TiO 2 /Al 2 O 3 were selected based on their presumed association with detrital mineral influences. The highest rare earths + Y values in benches of the Lower Kittanning coal were found at sites close to the lineaments. Negative or negligible Ce anomalies (δCe) and strongly positive Gd anomalies (δGd) suggest marine or hydrothermal influences and negative Eu anomalies (δEu) along with high TiO 2 /Al 2 O 3 values suggest a terrestrial input. In conclusion, the plots of δCe vs. δGd and δCe vs. δEu show that the low volatile bituminous coals are segregated from the other coals, suggesting that the factors that influenced coal rank also influenced the distribution of the rare earth elements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A survey study on arsenic speciation in coal fly ash and insights into the role of coal combustion conditions

Coal fly ashes (CFAs) are the low-density byproducts of the coal combustion process. Improper or uncontrolled CFA disposal poses significant environmental and health concerns due to the potential leaching of toxic heavy metals such as arsenic (As). Previous studies have investigated the content and speciation of As in different CFA samples, yet systematic information on As speciation in CFA with representative coal source and combustion conditions is still missing. Based on a recent survey study on the typical coal sources and combustion conditions across the U.S., this study selected 19 representative CFA samples to systematically investigate As speciation and potential correlations with these parameters. The composition, morphology, mineralogy, and As speciation of these CFA samples were characterized by complementary analytical, microscopic, and spectroscopic techniques. Synchrotron X-ray spectroscopy and microscopy analyses revealed the dominant As oxidation state to be As(V) and with strong associations to Ca, with the exception of 3 samples that had 19–51% As(III), likely due to the use of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) process. Principal component analysis was conducted to identify potential correlations of As concentration and oxidation state with parameters such as major element content, loss on ignition (LOI), average particle size, coal source, and combustion condition. Al 2 O 3 and FeO content were found to capture a majority of the variability. Further, results from this study provide fundamental basis for understanding the correlations between coal source, combustion conditions, CFA characteristics, and As speciation, and providing insights for downstream beneficial utilization or disposal management.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Cosolvent enhanced lignocellulosic fractionation tailoring lignin chemistry and enhancing lignin bioconversion

Cosolvent Enhanced Lignocellulosic Fractionation (CELF) is an emerging solvolysis pretreatment to fractionate lignocellulosic biomass. Herein, the bioconversion performance of CELF lignin was fully evaluated for the first time. Results showed that CELF lignin possessed higher content of carboxylic acid OH, lower molecular weight, and disappeared β-O-4 and β-5 linkages compared to other two technical lignins including a conventional ethanol organosolv lignin (EOL) and a kraft lignin (KL). Rhodococcus opacus PD630 cell count from CELF lignin fermentation reached the highest value of 3.9 10 7 CFU/mL, representing a 62.5% and 77.3% improvement over EOL and KL, respectively. Correspondingly, lipid yield reached 143 mg/L from CELF lignin, which was 36.2% and 26.5% higher than from EOL and KL, respectively. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that more carboxylic acid groups and lower molecular weight contributed to the enhanced bioconversion performance of CELF lignin. This study demonstrates that CELF lignin is a promising candidate for bioconversion.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Role of underlying surface, rainstorm and antecedent wetness condition on flood responses in small and medium sized watersheds in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Floods are becoming more frequent and are hard to control due to the shortage of water conservancy projects in small and medium sized basins, especially in developing regions. Understanding the hydrologic responses and estimated flood characteristics to storm events can help to predict flood disasters and form better effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, using observations of several representative watersheds and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, we conducted data-driven analyses to examine the flood responding characteristics. We quantified the relative contributions of the influencing factors to the variation of each flood characteristic. Statistical analysis of the observations shows that the drainage area plays a key role in determining the distribution of lag time and peak discharge. Rainstorm variability has direct influence on floods, and typhoon-induced rainstorms with high total rainfall and rainfall intensity generate higher lag time, flood peak, unit discharge and runoff depth, but lower runoff coefficient. The ANN and PCR models accurately predicted the variations of flood features using the driving factors including physical geographical characteristics, rainstorm features, and antecedent condition. Physical geographic characteristics are key influential factors of lag time, flood peak and runoff coefficient, while the rainstorm features control the magnitude of unit discharge and runoff depth. These results indicate that floods are mainly affected by rainstorm features and physical geographic characteristics in the Yangtze River delta, and it might become more damaging with the increasing rainfall extremes and sprawling impervious surfaces in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗