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At least 397 records · Page 22

Microphysical Characterization of Ice in Hurricane Erin for Wideband Passive Microwave Comparisons

In order to better understand the characteristics of frozen hydrometeors in hurricane systems, computed brightness temperatures were compared with observations of Hurricane Erin from CAMEX-4 radiometers on the ER-2 aircraft. These wideband observations ranged from 10.7 to 183 plus or minus 10 GHz. In order to initialize the cloud profiles used in the radiative transfer calculations, radar reflectivities from an ER-2 instrument were converted to mass contents at specified height levels. Dropsonde data from the ER-2 and modeled Hurricane Andrew data were used to generate profiles of temperature, pressure, and relative humidity and to provide surface wind speed and ocean temperature. Four different ice (size and density) parameterizations were used to compute brightness temperature values. The comparisons between the calculated and observed brightness temperatures show that in general the Grenfell and Warren particle size distribution does the best job of matching the observations for most of the high frequencies. These high frequencies (greater than or equal to 85 GHz) are particularly sensitive to frozen particles. The Sehkon and Srivastava particle size distribution produced brightness temperatures that were too cold in most cases. On the other hand, the fluffy snow particle parameterizations with and without a melting layer produced brightness temperatures that were much warmer than the observations at these high frequencies. All low frequency calculations track the observations well except in the eye of Hurricane Erin where the surface wind speed and/or near surface temperatures were not properly adjusted to warm the brightness temperature calculations to values closer to the observations. Overall, this work shows that selecting a proper ice particle parameterization can be difficult and additional in situ measurements are needed to define appropriate parameterizations.

Skofronick-Jackson, G.↗

Preliminary Assessment of Mars Exploration Rover Landing Site Predictions

Selection of the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) landing sites took place over a three year period in which engineering constraints were identified, 155 possible sites were downselected to the final two, surface environments and safety considerations were developed, and the potential science return at the sites was considered. Landing sites in Gusev crater and Meridiani Planum were selected because they appeared acceptably safe for MER landing and roving and had strong morphologic and mineralogical indicators of liquid water in their past and thus appeared capable of addressing the science objectives of the MER missions, which are to determine the aqueous, climatic, and geologic history of sites on Mars where conditions may have been favorable to the preservation of evidence of possible pre-biotic or biotic processes. Engineering constraints important to the selection included: latitude (10 N-15 S) for maximum solar power; elevation (<-1.3 km) for sufficient atmosphere to slow the lander; low horizontal winds, shear and turbulence in the last few kilometers to minimize horizontal velocity; low 10-m scale slopes to reduce airbag spinup and bounce; moderate rock abundance to reduce abrasion or stroke-out of the airbags; and a radar-reflective, load-bearing and trafficable surface safe for landing and roving that is not dominated by fine-grained dust. In selecting the MER landing sites these engineering constraints were addressed via comprehensive evaluation of surface and atmospheric characteristics from existing remote sensing data and models as well as targeted orbital information acquired from Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey. This evaluation resulted in a number of predictions of the surface characteristics of the sites, which are tested in this abstract. Relating remote sensing signatures to surface characteristics at landing sites allows these sites to be used as ground truth for the orbital data, is essential for selecting and validating landing sites for future missions, and is required for correctly interpreting the surfaces and materials globally present on Mars.

Golombek, M.↗

An Aircraft Encounter with Turbulence in the Vicinity of a Thunderstorm

Large eddy simulations of three convective turbulence events are investigated and compared with observational data. Two events were characterized with severe turbulence and the other with moderate turbulence. Two of the events occurred during NASA s turbulence flight experiments during the spring of 2002, and the third was an event identified by the Flight Operational Quality Assurance (FOQA) Program. Each event was associated with developing or ongoing convection and was characterized by regions of low to moderate radar reflectivity. Model comparisons with observations are favorable. The data sets from these simulations can be used to test turbulence detection sensors.

Hamilton, David W.↗

Remote Measurements of Snowfalls in Wakasa Bay, Japan with Airborne Millimeter- wave Imaging Radiometer and Cloud Radar

In this paper we explore the application of combined millimeter-wave radar and radiometry to remotely measure snowfall. During January-February of 2003, a field campaign was conducted with the NASA P-3 aircraft in Wakasa Bay, Japan for the validation of the AMSRE microwave radiometer on board the Aqua satellite. Among the suite of instruments-on board the P-3 aircraft were the Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (MIR) from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and the 94 GHz Airborne Cloud Radar (ACR) which is co-owned and operated by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory/University of Massachusetts. MIR is a total power, across-track scanning radiometer that measures radiation at the frequencies of 89, 150, 183.3 +/- 1, 183.3 +/- 3, 183.3 +/-7, 220, and 340 GHz. The MIR has flown many successful missions since its completion in May 1992. ACR is a newer instrument and flew only a few times prior to the Wakasa Bay deployment. These two instruments which are particularly well suited for the detection of snowfall functioned normally during flights over snowfall and excellent data sets were acquired. On January 14, 28, and 29 flights were conducted over snowfall events. The MIR and ACR detected strong signals during periods of snowfall over ocean and land. Results from the analysis of these concurrent data sets show that (1) the scattering of millimeter-wave radiation as detected by the MIR is strongly correlated with ACR radar reflectivity profiles, and (2) the scattering is highly frequency-dependent, the higher the frequency the stronger the scattering. Additionally, the more transparent channels of the MIR (e.g., 89, 150, and 220 GHz) are found to display ambiguous signatures of snowfall because of their exposure to surface features. Thus, the snowfall detection and retrievals of snowfall parameters, such as the ice water path (IWP) and median mass diameter (D(me)) are best conducted at the more opaque channels near 183.3 GHz and 340 GHz. Retrievals of IWP and D(me) using the MIR measurements at 183.3 and 340 GHZ are currently in progress, and the results will be compared with those derived from the ACR reflectivity profiles. Implication from this comparison will be discussed.

Wang, J. R.↗

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to the Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes

A cloud-resolving model is used to study sensitivities of two different microphysical schemes, one is the traditional bulk type, and the other is an explicit bin scheme, in simulating a mid-latitude squall line case (PRE-STORM, June 10-1 1,1985). Simulations using different microphysical schemes are compared with each other and also with the observations. Both the bulk and bin models reproduce the general features during the developing and mature stage of the system. Furthermore, the observations and the well-proven bulk scheme simulation serve as validations for the newly incorporated bin scheme. However, it is also shown that the bulk and bin simulations have distinct differences, most notably in the stratiform region of the squall line system. Weak convective cells exist in the stratiform region in the bulk simulation, but not in the bin simulation. These weak convective cells in the stratiform region simulated in the bulk scheme model are remnants of the stronger convections previously at the leading edge of the system, sustained by horizontal vorticity generated by its own cool pool near the surface. The bin simulation, on the other hand, has a horizontally homogeneous stratiform cloud structure, which agrees better with the observations. Examinations of the downdraft core strength, the potential temperature perturbation, and the evaporative cooling rate show that the differences between the bulk and bin models are due mainly to the stronger low-level evaporative cooling in the convective zone simulated in the bulk microphysical scheme, which is unrealistic because of the assumptions made in raindrop size distribution. Further sensitivity tests that reduce the evaporation rate in bulk scheme artificially produce more upright convective core and less weak cores in stratiform region. However, they produce weaker upper level outflow and consequently less stratiform rain area. The addition of a more realistic raindrop breakup scheme in the bin scheme results more realistic radar reflectivity and stronger surface rainfall. Despite the increase of the rain evaporation and strengthening of the near surface cool pool, bin scheme with rain breakup shows homogeneous stratiform rain. These sensitivity tests prove the robustness of the bin microphysical scheme and the difficulty of tuning the limited parameters in the bulk microphysical scheme to realistically reproduce detail structures in a mid-latitude squall line case study.

Li, Xiao-Wen↗

Lightning Mapping and the Nowcasting of Severe Storms

This paper describes a successful research and operational collaboration between NASA scientists and NWS forecasters to improve severe stor m warnings using real-time data from a regional VHF total lightning mapping array (LMA). Key objectives of our research using LMA data ar e: a) Identification of intensifying and weakening storms using the time rate-of-change of total flash rate; b) Improved severe storm poten tial situational awareness; c) Evaluation of the potential of total f lash rate trend to improve severe storm probability of detection (POD ) and lead time; and d) Validation of mesoscale model forecasts of th understorm initiation. The LMA data are distributed for ingest and di splay in the WFO AWIPS decision support system, and archived at each WFO for case studies, event playbacks, and assessments using the NWS Warning Event Simulator. The Huntsville WFO has upgraded severe thund erstorm warnings to verified tornado warnings and avoided a false ala rm on a severe storm through the added information on storm growth, intensification, and decay that can be deduced from the magnitude and temporal trend of total flash rates. We present detailed case studies of the observed relationships between lightning activity and tornadi c storm development as determined by radar reflectivity and velocity fields, and thunderstorms forecast by the Weather Research and Foreca st (WRF) model. From these collaborative studies, forecasters can eva luate the added value of total lightning data within the forecast and warning decision-making process (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport) .

Goodman, S.↗

Microwave Remote Sensing of Falling Snow

This study analyzes passive and active microwave measurements during the 2003 Wakasa Bay field experiment for understanding of the electromagnetic characteristics of frozen hydrometeors at millimeter-wave frequencies. Based on these understandings, parameterizations of the electromagnetic scattering properties of snow at millimeter-wave frequencies are developed and applied to the hydrometeor profiles obtained by airborne radar measurements. Calculated brightness temperatures and radar reflectivity are compared with the millimeter-wave measurements.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗

Progress in Development of an Airborne Turbulence Detection System

Aircraft encounters with turbulence are the leading cause of in-flight injuries (Tyrvanas 2003) and have occasionally resulted in passenger and crew fatalities. Most of these injuries are caused by sudden and unexpected encounters with severe turbulence in and around convective activity (Kaplan et al 2005). To alleviate this problem, the Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems (TPAWS) element of NASA s Aviation Safety program has investigated technologies to detect and warn of hazardous in-flight turbulence. This effort has required the numerical modeling of atmospheric convection: 1) for characterizing convectively induced turbulence (CIT) environments, 2) for defining turbulence hazard metrics, and 3) as a means of providing realistic three-dimensional data sets that can be used to test and evaluate turbulence detection sensors. The data sets are being made available to industry and the FAA for certification of future airborne turbulence-detection systems (ATDS) with warning capability. Early in the TPAWS project, a radar-based ATDS was installed and flight tested on NASA s research aircraft, a B-757. This ATDS utilized new algorithms and hazard metrics that were developed for use with existing airborne predictive windshear radars, thus avoiding the installation of new hardware. This system was designed to detect and warn of hazardous CIT even in regions with weak radar reflectivity (i.e. 5-15 dBz). Results from an initial flight test of the ATDS were discussed in Hamilton and Proctor (2002a; 2002b). In companion papers (Proctor et al 2002a; 2002b), a numerical simulation of the most significant encounter from that flight test was presented. Since the presentation of these papers a second flight test has been conducted providing additional cases for examination. In this paper, we will present results from NASA s flight test and a numerical model simulation of a turbulence environment encountered on 30 April 2002. Progress leading towards FAA certification of industry built ATDS will also be discussed.

Hamilton, David W.↗

Comets, Asteroids, and the Origin of the Biosphere

During the past few decades, the role of comets in the delivery of water, organics, and prebiotic chemicals to the Biosphere of Earth during the Hadean (4.5-3.8 Ga) period of heavy bombardment has become more widely accepted. However comets are still largely regarded as frigid, pristine bodies of protosolar nebula material that are entirely devoid of liquid water and consequently unsuitable for life in any form. Complex organic compounds have been observed comets and on the water rich asteroid 1998 KY26, which has color and radar reflectivity similar to the carbonaceous meteorites. Near infrared observations have indicated the presence of crystalline water ice and ammonia hydrate on the large Kuiper Belt object (50000) Quaoar with resurfacing that may indicate cryovolcanic outgassing and the Cassini spacecraft has detected water-ice geysers on Saturn s moon Enceladus. Spacecraft observations of the chemical compositions and characteristics of the nuclei of several comets (Halley, Borrelly, Wild 2, and Tempel 1) have now firmly established that comets contain a suite of complex organic chemicals; water is the predominant volatile; and that extremely high temperatures (approx.350-400 K) can be reached on the surface of the very black (albedo-0.03) nuclei when the comets are with 1.5 AU from the Sun. Impact craters and pinnacles observed on comet Wild 2 suggest a thick crust and episodic outbursts and jets observed on the nuclei of several comets are interpreted as indications that localized regimes of liquid water and water vapor can periodically exist beneath the crust of some comets. The Deep Impact observations indicate that the temperature on the nucleus of of comet Tempel 1 at 1.5 AU varied from 330K on the sunlit side to a minimum of 280+/-8 K. It is interesting that even the coldest region of the comet surface was slightly above the ice/liquid water phase transition temperature. These results suggest that pools and films of liquid water can exist in a wide range of temperatures in cavities and voids at different depths just beneath the crust of a comet. The possibility that liquid water may exist over a wide range of temperatures on comets significantly enhances the possibility that these bodies may harbor niches suitable for microbial communities and ecosystems. Such niches would by ideal for the growth of psychrophilic, mesophilic, and possibly even thermophilic chemolithotrophs and photoautotrophs such as the motile filamentous cyanobacteria (e.g., Calothrix, Oscillatoria, Phormidium, and Spirulina) that can grow in geothermal springs and geysers at temperatures ranging from 320K to 345K and in cold polar desert soils. This paper reviews the observational data in support of the hypothesis that liquid water can exist in permafrost-like active regions just beneath the surface of comets when near perihelion and provides additional arguments in support of the hypothesis that comets, carbonaceous meteorites, and asteroids may have played a significant role in the origin and evolution of the Biosphere and in the distribution of microbial life throughout the Solar System.

Hoover, Richard B.↗

A-Train Data Depot: Integrating and Visualizing Atmospheric Measurements Along the A-Train Tracks

The succession of US and international satellites that follow each other, seconds to minutes apart, across the local afternoon equator crossing is called the ATrain. The A-Train consists of the following satellites, in order of equator crossing: OCO, EOS Aqua, CloudSat, CALIPSO, PARASOL, and EOS Aura. Flying in such formation increases the number of observations, validates observations, and enables coordination between science observations, resulting in a more complete virtual science platform (Kelly, 2000) The goal of this project is to create the first ever A-Train virtual data portal/center, the A-Train Data Depot, to process, archive, access, visualize, analyze and correlate distributed atmosphere measurements from various A-Train instruments along A-Train tracks. The A-Train Data Depot (ATDD) will enable the free movement of remotely located A-Train data so that they are combined to create a consolidated vertical view of the Earth s Atmosphere along the A-Train tracks. Once the infrastructure of the ATDD is in place, it will be easily evolved to serve data from all A-Train data measurements: one stop shopping. The innovative approach of analyzing and visualizing atmospheric profiles along the platforms track (i.e., time) will be accommodated by reusing the GSFC Atmospheric Composition Data and Information Services Center (ACDISC) visualization and analysis tool, GIOVANNI, existing data reduction tools, on-line archwing for fast data access, and Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CRA) data co-registration tools. Initial measurements utilized include CALIPSO lidar backscatter, CloudSat radar reflectivity, clear air relative humidity, water vapor and temperature from AIRS, and cloud properties and aerosols from both MODIS. This will be followed by associated measurements from MLS, OMI, HIRDLS, and TES. Given the independent nature of instrument/platform development, the ATDD project has been met with many interesting challenges that, once resolved, will provide a much greater understanding of the relative flight dynamics and data co-registration of the suite of A-Train instruments, thus greatly increasing the accuracy of A-Train data analysis. Some of these challenges will be discussed. The project s resulting visualizations and analysis illustrate the importance of managing data so that measurements from various missions can be combined to enhance the understanding of the atmosphere. A-Train data management coordination, as performed here, is extremely significant in facilitating the A-Train science of clouds, precipitation, aerosol and chemistry.

Kempler, Steven↗

A-Train Data Depot: Integrating, Visualizing, and Extracting Cloudsat, CALIPSO, MODIS, and AIRS Atmospheric Measurements Along the A-Train Tracks

The succession of US and international Earth observing satellites that follow each other, seconds to minutes apart, across the local afternoon equator crossing is called the ATrain. The A-Train consists of the following satellites, in order of equator crossing: OCO, EOS Aqua, CloudSat, CALIPSO, PARASOL, and EOS Aura. Flying in such formation increases the number of observations, validates observations, and enables coordination between science observations, resulting in a more complete virtual science platform (Kelly, 2000). The goal of this project is to create the first ever A-Train virtual data portal/center, the A-Train Data Depot (ATDD), to process, archive, access, visualize, analyze and correlate distributed atmosphere measurements from various A-Train instruments along A-Train tracks. The ATDD will enable the free movement of remotely located A-Train data so that they are combined to create a consolidated vertical view of the Earth's Atmosphere along the A-Train tracks. Once the infrastructure of the ATDD is in place, it will be easily evolved to serve data from all A-Train data measurements: one stop shopping. The innovative approach of analyzing and visualizing atmospheric profiles along the platforms track (i.e., time) will be accommodated by reusing the GSFC Atmospheric Composition Data and Information Services Center (ACDISC) visualization and analysis tool, GIOVANNI, existing data reduction tools, on-line archiving for fast data access, access to remote data without unnecessary data transfers, and data retrieval by users finding data desirable for further study. Initial measurements utilized include CALIPSO lidar backscatter, CloudSat radar reflectivity, clear air relative humidity, water vapor and temperature from AIRS, and cloud properties and aerosols from both MODIS. This will be foilowed by associated measurements from TVILS, =MI, HIRDLS, sad TES. Given the independent nature of instrumentlplatform development, the ATDD project has been met with many interesting challenges that, once resolved, will provide a much greater understanding of the relative flight dynamics and data co-registration of the suite of A-Train instruments, thus greatly increasing the accuracy of A-Train data analysis. Some of these challenges will be illustrated and discussed. The project's early visualizations and analysis efforts illustrate the importance of managing data so that measurements from various missions can be combined to enhance the understanding of the atmosphere. A-Train data management coordination, as performed here, is extremely significant in facilitating the A-Train science of clouds, precipitation, aerosol and chemistry.

Kempler, Steven↗

Application of the NASA A-Train to Evaluate Clouds Simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast Model

The CloudSat Mission, part of the NASA A-Train, is providing the first global survey of cloud profiles and cloud physical properties, observing seasonal and geographical variations that are pertinent to evaluating the way clouds are parameterized in weather and climate forecast models. CloudSat measures the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation from space through the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), a 94 GHz nadir-looking radar measuring the power backscattered by clouds as a function of distance from the radar. One of the goals of the CloudSat mission is to evaluate the representation of clouds in forecast models, thereby contributing to improved predictions of weather, climate and the cloud-climate feedback problem. This paper highlights potential limitations in cloud microphysical schemes currently employed in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) modeling system. The horizontal and vertical structure of explicitly simulated cloud fields produced by the WRF model at 4-km resolution are being evaluated using CloudSat observations in concert with products derived from MODIS and AIRS. A radiative transfer model is used to produce simulated profiles of radar reflectivity given WRF input profiles of hydrometeor mixing ratios and ambient atmospheric conditions. The preliminary results presented in the paper will compare simulated and observed reflectivity fields corresponding to horizontal and vertical cloud structures associated with midlatitude cyclone events.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Use of the X-Band Radar to Support the Detection of In-Flight Icing Hazards by the NASA Icing Remote Sensing System

The Alliance Icing Research Study-II (AIRS-II) field program was conducted near Montreal, Canada during the winter of 2003. The NASA Icing Remote Detection System (NIRSS) was deployed to detect in-flight icing hazards and consisted of a vertically pointing multichannel radiometer, a ceilometer and an x-band cloud radar. The radiometer was used to derive atmospheric temperature soundings and integrated liquid water, while the ceilometer and radar were used only to define cloud boundaries. The purpose of this study is to show that the radar reflectivity profiles from AIRS-II case studies could be used to provide a qualitative icing hazard.

Serke, David J.↗

Understanding Ice Supersaturation, Particle Growth, and Number Concentration in Cirrus Clouds

Many factors control the ice supersaturation and microphysical properties in cirrus clouds. We explore the effects of dynamic forcing, ice nucleation mechanisms, and ice crystal growth rate on the evolution and distribution of water vapor and cloud properties in nighttime cirrus clouds using a one-dimensional cloud model with bin microphysics and remote sensing measurements obtained at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility located near Lamont, OK. We forced the model using both large-scale vertical ascent and, for the first time, mean mesoscale velocity derived from radar Doppler velocity measurements. Both heterogeneous and homogeneous nucleation processes are explored, where a classical theory heterogeneous scheme is compared with empirical representations. We evaluated model simulations by examining both bulk cloud properties and distributions of measured radar reflectivity, lidar extinction, and water vapor profiles, as well as retrieved cloud microphysical properties. Our results suggest that mesoscale variability is the primary mechanism needed to reproduce observed quantities. Model sensitivity to the ice growth rate is also investigated. The most realistic simulations as compared with observations are forced using mesoscale waves, include fast ice crystal growth, and initiate ice by either homogeneous or heterogeneous nucleation. Simulated ice crystal number concentrations (tens to hundreds particles per liter) are typically two orders of magnitude smaller than previously published results based on aircraft measurements in cirrus clouds, although higher concentrations are possible in isolated pockets within the nucleation zone.

Comstock, Jennifer M.↗

Validation of TRMM Precipitation Radar Through Comparison of its Multi-Year Measurements to Ground-Based Radar

A procedure to accurately resample spaceborne and ground-based radar data is described, and then applied to the measurements taken from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) and the ground-based Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D or WSR) for the validation of the PR measurements and estimates. Through comparisons with the well-calibrated, non-attenuated WSR at Melbourne, Florida for the period 1998-2007, the calibration of the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite is checked using measurements near the storm top. Analysis of the results indicates that the PR, after taking into account differences in radar reflectivity factors between the PR and WSR, has a small positive bias of 0.8 dB relative to the WSR, implying a soundness of the PR calibration in view of the uncertainties involved in the comparisons. Comparisons between the PR and WSR reflectivities are also made near the surface for evaluation of the attenuation-correction procedures used in the PR algorithms. It is found that the PR attenuation is accurately corrected in stratiform rain but is underestimated in convective rain, particularly in heavy rain. Tests of the PR estimates of rainfall rate are conducted through comparisons in the overlap area between the TRMM overpass and WSR scan. Analyses of the data are made both on a conditional basis, in which the instantaneous rain rates are compared only at those pixels where both the PR and WSR detect rain, and an unconditional basis, in which the area-averaged rain rates are estimated independently for the PR and WSR. Results of the conditional rain comparisons show that the PR-derived rain is about 9% greater and 19% less than the WSR estimates for stratiform and convective storms, respectively. Overall, the PR tends to underestimate the conditional mean rain rate by 8% for all rain categories, a finding that conforms to the results of the area-averaged rain (unconditional) comparisons.

Liao, Liang↗

Comparison of Mapping Tessera Terrain in the Phoebe Regio (V-41) and Tellus Tessera (V-10) Quadrangles

Tessera terrain was first described from data collected by the Venera 15/16 spacecraft. These high standing crustal plateaus are characterized by enhanced radar-scale roughness (i.e. at the 12-cm Magellan radar wavelength), low radar reflectivity and multiple episodes of deformation. Outcrops range from local exposures (100s of km across) to continent sized (e.g. Aphrodite Terra). To understand the tectonic history of these relatively old terrains, detailed geologic and stratigraphic relations have been assessed by a number of investigators. Tessera is typically mapped as a global-scale unit although significant variations in both geologic setting and character are observed. This leads to the suggestion that the rock material making up these terrains may vary across the planet. As such, we are carrying out geologic mapping of both the Phoebe Regio (V-41) and Tellus Tessera (V-10) quadrangles to ascertain their geologic history and make comparisons between these distinct upland plateaus.

Senske, D. A.↗

4-D Cloud Water Content Fields Derived from Operational Satellite Data

In order to improve operational safety and efficiency, the transportation industry, including aviation, has an urgent need for accurate diagnoses and predictions of clouds and associated weather conditions. Adverse weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System. The Federal Aviation Administration has determined that as much as two thirds of weather-related delays are potentially avoidable with better weather information and roughly 20% of all aviation accidents are weather related. Thus, it is recognized that an important factor in meeting the goals of the Next Generation Transportation System (NexGen) vision is the improved integration of weather information. The concept of a 4-D weather cube is being developed to address that need by integrating observed and forecasted weather information into a shared 4-D database, providing an integrated and nationally consistent weather picture for a variety of users and to support operational decision support systems. Weather analyses and forecasts derived using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a critical tool that forecasters rely on for guidance and also an important element in current and future decision support systems. For example, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the recently implemented Rapid Refresh (RR) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) models provide high frequency forecasts and are key elements of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program. Because clouds play a crucial role in the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere, they must be adequately accounted for in NWP models. The RUC, for example, cycles at full resolution five cloud microphysical species (cloud water, cloud ice, rain, snow, and graupel) and has the capability of updating these fields from observations. In order to improve the models initial state and subsequent forecasts, cloud top altitude (or temperature, T(sub c)) derived from operational satellite data, surface observations of cloud base altitude, radar reflectivity, and lightning data are used to help build and remove clouds in the models assimilation system. Despite this advance and the many recent advances made in our understanding of cloud physical processes and radiative effects, many problems remain in adequately representing clouds in models. While the assimilation of cloud top information derived from operational satellite data has merit, other information is available that has not yet been exploited. For example, the vertically integrated cloud water content (CWC) or cloud water path (CWP) and cloud geometric thickness (delta Z) are standard products being derived routinely from operational satellite data. These and other cloud products have been validated under a variety of conditions. Since the uncertainties have generally been found to be less than those found in model analyses and forecasts, the satellite products should be suitable for data assimilation, provided an appropriate strategy can be developed that links the satellite-derived cloud parameters with cloud parameters specified in the model. In this paper, we briefly outline such a strategy and describe a methodology to retrieve cloud water content profiles from operational satellite data. Initial results and future plans are presented. It is expected that the direct assimilation of this new product will provide the most accurate depiction of the vertical distribution of cloud water ever produced at the high spatial and temporal resolution needed for short term weather analyses and forecasts.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗

Large Eddy Simulations of Severe Convection Induced Turbulence

Convective storms can pose a serious risk to aviation operations since they are often accompanied by turbulence, heavy rain, hail, icing, lightning, strong winds, and poor visibility. They can cause major delays in air traffic due to the re-routing of flights, and by disrupting operations at the airports in the vicinity of the storm system. In this study, the Terminal Area Simulation System is used to simulate five different convective events ranging from a mesoscale convective complex to isolated storms. The occurrence of convection induced turbulence is analyzed from these simulations. The validation of model results with the radar data and other observations is reported and an aircraft-centric turbulence hazard metric calculated for each case is discussed. The turbulence analysis showed that large pockets of significant turbulence hazard can be found in regions of low radar reflectivity. Moderate and severe turbulence was often found in building cumulus turrets and overshooting tops.

Ahmad, Nash'at↗