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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Prediction of the structure of fuel sprays in gas turbine combustors

The structure of fuel sprays in a combustion chamber is theoretically investigated using computer models of current interest. Three representative spray models are considered: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) model, which assumes infinitely fast interphase transport rates; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, which considers finite rates of interphase transport but ignores effects of droplet/turbulence interactions; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model, which considers droplet/turbulence interactions using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for droplet motion and transport. Two flow conditions are studied to investigate the influence of swirl on droplet life histories and the effects of droplet/turbulence interactions on flow properties. Comparison of computed results with the experimental data show that general features of the flow structure can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using the two separated flow models. In contrast, the LHF model overpredicts the rate of development of the flow. While the SSF model provides better agreement with measurements than the DSF model, definitive evaluation of the significance of droplet/turbulence interaction is not achieved due to uncertainties in the spray initial conditions.

Shuen, J.-S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

PRIME: A bottom-up approach to probabilistic rule development

PRIME is a system to be used by an intelligent machine to allow it to operate in an abstract but uncertain (or stochastic) environment. It maintains a model of the effects of the machine's actions in the form of a rule base, which is induced from experience. This bottom-up approach to rule development allows the model to adapt to changes in the environment. Each rule consists of a condition under which the rule is active, an action, the effect of the action on the environment, and an estimate of the probability of this effect occurring. The effect probabilities are used to model the uncertainty in the environment, permitting multiple possible effects for a single action under a particular set of conditions. The objective of the intelligent machine is to satisfy user-specified goals with maximum probability of success. PRIME fulfills this requirement in two ways: it continuously updates the rule base with the most recent information, to ensure the validity of the model; and it generates plans which have the maximum probability of achieving the goals, based on the probability estimates in the rule base. PRIME is composed of three main processes: exploration, generalization, and planning. In exploration, the machine executes various randomly chosen actions, observes the effects on the environment, and updates the rule base accordingly. This process is used to develop the rule base in simulation, as well as to supplement the current knowledge during normal operation. Generalization is the procedure used to induce general rules from experience, which is encoded in the form of specific rules. These general rules extend the machine's knowledge to situations which have not been encountered yet, thereby increasing the capability of the machine to plan effectively. Planning is the process of constructing an optimal sequence of actions to satisfy a goal, using the rule base to predict the effects of these actions and to determine the probability of success of the plan. The rule representation and many other data structures were specifically chosen to maximize the efficiency of these processes. A simulated environment was designed to test the performance of PRIME. The results of experimentation were largely negative. The main problem was that the domain coverage of the rules was inadequate for the number of rules stored in the rule base, due to redundancies in general rules and numerous rules covering ineffective actions. It was determined that a more efficient generalization, and some form of goal-directed exploration, are necessary in order to solve most of the current deficiencies in PRIME.

Miller, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Quantifying Uncertainties in Land Surface Microwave Emissivity Retrievals

Uncertainties in the retrievals of microwave land surface emissivities were quantified over two types of land surfaces: desert and tropical rainforest. Retrievals from satellite-based microwave imagers, including SSM/I, TMI and AMSR-E, were studied. Our results show that there are considerable differences between the retrievals from different sensors and from different groups over these two land surface types. In addition, the mean emissivity values show different spectral behavior across the frequencies. With the true emissivity assumed largely constant over both of the two sites throughout the study period, the differences are largely attributed to the systematic and random errors in the retrievals. Generally these retrievals tend to agree better at lower frequencies than at higher ones, with systematic differences ranging 1~4% (3~12 K) over desert and 1~7% (3~20 K) over rainforest. The random errors within each retrieval dataset are in the range of 0.5~2% (2~6 K). In particular, at 85.0/89.0 GHz, there are very large differences between the different retrieval datasets, and within each retrieval dataset itself. Further investigation reveals that these differences are mostly likely caused by rain/cloud contamination, which can lead to random errors up to 10~17 K under the most severe conditions.

Tian, Yudong↗
NASA NTRS2012

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Goodrich, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Regional Map of Mangrove Extent for Myanmar, Thailand, and Cambodia Shows Losses of 44% By 1996

Southeast Asia is home to some of the planet’s most carbon-dense and biodiverse mangrove ecosystems. There is still much uncertainty with regards to the timing and magnitude of changes in mangrove cover over the past 50 years. While there are several regional to global maps of mangrove extent in Southeast Asia over the past two decades, data prior to the mid-1990s is limited due to the scarcity of Earth Observation data of sufficient quality and the historical limitations to publicly available EO. We present a classification of mangrove extent using Landsat 1-2 MSS Tier 2 data from 1972-1977 for three Southeast Asian countries: Myanmar, Thailand, and Cambodia. Mangrove extent land cover maps were generated using a Random Forest machine learning algorithm that effectively mapped a total of 15,420.51 km2. Accuracy assessments indicated that the classification for the mangrove and non-mangrove class had a producer’s accuracy of 79.63 % and 98.24 %a user’s accuracy of 89.58 % and 96.21 %, and an overall accuracy of 95.26 % . We found a decline of 6,830 km2 between the 1970’s and 2020, showing that44.29% of the mangrove area in these countries has been lost in the past 48 years. Most of this loss occurred between the 1970’s and 1996; rates of deforestation declined dramatically after 1996. This study also urges that these results be considered within the context of the local need for these coastal resources that helped them endure the political and financial challenges of their coastal homes.

Priscilla Baltezar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterizing Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Interpolated Meteorological Data

Interpolated meteorological data invariably contain errors. These errors have structure in time and space, particularly autocorrelation, which can cause the effects of errors to compound when model outputs are aggregated temporally or spatially. One way to account for this uncertainty is with a probabilistic model from which samples can be drawn that are coherent with respect to underlying spatial and temporal covariance structure. This work describes a probabilistic method for spatial interpolation of point-wise meteorological time series. Observational data from weather stations are generally sparse in space and dense in time (but sometimes missing). The method works by projecting time series onto orthogonal basis vectors and spatially interpolating each resulting component independently. Under suitable assumptions, and data transformations to better satisfy those assumptions, Gaussian process regression provides a complete description of the joint predictive distribution over a Gaussian random field. Spatiotemporally coherent realizations are generated as the sum of conditional (spatial) simulations of each orthogonal (temporal) component. Data-derived and generic orthogonal bases are considered. In addition to spatial interpolation, imputation of missing observational data is examined. The method is applied using near-surface air temperature over the Western United States and validated by comparing theoretical versus actual coverage of predictive distributions and analyzing the degree to which spatial and temporal covariance structure is reproduced. Computational considerations, relating to conditional simulation of random fields, are also addressed.

Conor T Doherty↗
NASA NTRS2021

Predicting near-saturated hydraulic conductivity in urban soils

Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide point predictions of soil hydraulic properties from more readily measured soil characteristics, yet uncertainties and biases in measurement methods, sampling distributions, and boundary conditions can limit accuracy when estimating near-saturated hydraulic conductivity (K(n)). These limitations may be particularly problematic in understudied urban landscapes that often contain altered hydraulic properties. To better treat deficiencies in PTF performance, we addressed three objectives, which were to: 1) develop PTFs to predict urban K(n), 2) assess bulk density and coarse fragments as explanatory variables; and 3) evaluate the predictive capability of these PTFs by comparing their output to measured hydraulic conductivity values from three other studies of urban soil hydraulics. We used artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forest (RF) approaches to predict urban K(n), with the training dataset including 307 tension infiltrometer tests and other measurements drawn from urban soil assessments in 11 U.S. cities. The PTFs utilized a hierarchy of inputs, starting with percentage sand, silt, clay, and then adding percentage coarse fragments and bulk density. The ANN models performed similar to the RF models, and all models exhibited similar or better predictive performance as models results collected from published articles. The inclusion of bulk density or coarse fragments did not improve accuracy over soil texture alone. Possible reasons for this result include low correlation between K(n) and bulk density and the exclusion of large voids during flow measurements with tension infiltrometers. The models have been made available as an open-source software package to encourage adoption by users working in urban systems.

Jinshi Jian↗
NASA NTRS1993

Validation of ISCCP cloud detections

This paper describes the validation of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology project (ISCCP)cloud detections by verifying the accuracy of the infrared clear-sky radiances. Comparison of retrieved surface temperatures to other measurements shows that bias errors are less than 2 K and random errors are about 2 K for sea surface (monthly means at 280-km scales) and that bias errors are less than 2 K and random errors are about 4 K for land surfaces (3 hourly at 280-km scales). Bias errors over a few persistently cloudy locations are sometimes -(2-4) K and over winter sea ice may be about +2 K. Surface reflectances are confirmed to be within 3% of other measurements and models for ocean, except for sun glint geometries, and to be within 3%-5% for land surfaces. Sufficiently accurate validation data are not avilable for visible reflectances of sea ice and snow-covered land, but some tests of specific cases suggest that errors are approximately 10%. These errors in clear-sky radiances suggest uncertainties in the ISCCP cloud detections of about 10% with a small (3%-6%) negative bias over land. Some specific regions exhibit both larger rms uncertainties and somewhat larger biases in cloud amount approaching 10%. ISCCP cloud detections are more in error over the polar regions than anywhere else. Based on comparisons with an anlysis of radiances measured at other wavelengths, the ISCCP analysis appears to miss 15%-25% of the clouds in summer but only 5%-10% of the winter clouds.

Rossow, William B.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Spatial Factors in the Integration of Speed Information

We reported that, for a 21FC task with multiple Gabor patches in each interval, thresholds for speed discrimination decreased with the number of patches, while simply increasing the area of a single patch produced no such effect. This result could be explained by multiple patches reducing spatial uncertainty. However, the fact that thresholds decrease with number even when the patches are in fixed positions argues against this explanation. We therefore performed additional experiments to explore the lack of an area effect. Three observers did a 21FC speed discrimination task with 6 Gabor patches in each interval, and were asked to pick the interval in which the gratings moved faster. The 50% contrast patches were placed on a circle at 4 deg. eccentricity, either equally spaced and maximally separated (hexagonal array), or closely-spaced, in consecutive positions (string of pearls). For the string-of-pearls condition, the grating phases were either random, or consistent with a full-field grating viewed through multiple Gaussian windows. When grating phases were random, the thresholds for the hexagonal and string-of-pearls layouts were indistinguishable. For the string-of-pearls layout, thresholds in the consistent-phase condition were higher by 15 +/- 6% than in the random-phase condition. (Thresholds increased by 57 +/- 7% in going from 6 patches to a single patch of equivalent area.). For random-phase patches, the lower thresholds for 6 patches does not depend on a specific spacing or spatial layout. Multiple, closely-spaced, consistent-phase patches that can be interpreted as a single grating, result in thresholds closer to that produced by a single patch. Together, our results suggest that object segmentation may play a role in the integration of speed information.

Verghese, P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space-Time Data Fusion

Space-time Data Fusion (STDF) is a methodology for combing heterogeneous remote sensing data to optimally estimate the true values of a geophysical field of interest, and obtain uncertainties for those estimates. The input data sets may have different observing characteristics including different footprints, spatial resolutions and fields of view, orbit cycles, biases, and noise characteristics. Despite these differences all observed data can be linked to the underlying field, and therefore the each other, by a statistical model. Differences in footprints and other geometric characteristics are accounted for by parameterizing pixel-level remote sensing observations as spatial integrals of true field values lying within pixel boundaries, plus measurement error. Both spatial and temporal correlations in the true field and in the observations are estimated and incorporated through the use of a space-time random effects (STRE) model. Once the models parameters are estimated, we use it to derive expressions for optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at any arbitrary location of interest, computed from the observations. Standard errors of these estimates are also produced, allowing confidence intervals to be constructed. The procedure is carried out on a fine spatial grid to approximate a continuous field. We demonstrate STDF by applying it to the problem of estimating CO2 concentration in the lower-atmosphere using data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Japanese Greenhouse Gasses Observing Satellite (GOSAT) over one year for the continental US.

Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT)↗
NASA NTRS2010

Prospects for Habitable World Detections Using James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)

Doppler and transit surveys are finding extrasolar planets of ever smaller mass and radius, and are now sampling the domain of superEarths. Recent results from the Doppler surveys suggest that discovery of a transiting superEarth in the habitable zone of a lower main sequence star may be possible. We evaluate the prospects for an all-sky transit survey targeted to the brightest stars I that would find the most favorable cases for photometric and spectroscopic characterization using the James Webb Space Telescope. We use the proposed Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) as representative of an all-sky survey. We couple the simulated TESS yield to a sensitivity model for the MIRI and NIRSpec instruments on JWST. Our sensitivity model includes all currently known and anticipated sources of random and systematic error for these instruments. We focus on the TESS planets with radii between Earth and Neptune. Our simulations consider secondary eclipse filter photometry using JWST/MIRI, comparing the 11- and 15- micron bands to measure carbon dioxide absorption in superEarths, as well as JWST!NIRSpec spectroscopy of water absorption from 1.7-3.0 microns, and carbon dioxide absorption at 4.3 microns. We find that JWST will be capable of characterizing dozens of TESS superEarths with temperatures above the habitable range, using both MIRI and NIRspec. We project that TESS will discover about eight nearby habitable transiting superEarths, all orbiting lower main sequence stars. The principal sources of uncertainty in the prospects for JWST characterization of habitable superEarths are superEarth frequency and the nature of superEarth atmospheres. Based on our estimates of these uncertainties, we project that JWST will be able to measure the temperature, and identify molecular absorptions (water, carbon dioxide) in one to four nearby habitable TESS superEarths orbiting lower main sequence stars.

Deming, Drake↗
NASA NTRS1995

Analysis of uncertainty in force balance calibration

In order to reduce errors encountered in the measurement and identification of loads using force balances, a third-order forward polynomial relation between loads and output voltages is proposed. This full third-order model represents an alternative to the second-order model currently in use at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and many other installations worldwide. The new model requires the identification of 84 coefficients (including the 28 used presently) for each of the six outputs. The existing LaRC calibration loading sequence is insufficient for identification of many of these 504 coefficients because critical three-load combinations are absent. Accordingly, a new loading sequence that permits the identification of all 504 coefficients has been developed and is described fully. It is apparent from numerical tests that the new third-order model is clearly superior to second-order models in the presence of small amounts of random measurement noise, assuming that there are indeed higher-order interactions between loads. As the amount of noise increases, however, a third-order model becomes less attractive due to its ability to match the noise itself more faithfully than a second-order model. Numerical results suggest that the transition occurs when the magnitude of random noise becomes of the same order as that of the physical higher-order interactions.

Bursal, Faruk H.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Adaptive stochastic control for a class of linear systems.

The problem considered in this paper deals with the control of linear discrete-time stochastic systems with unknown (possibly time-varying and random) gain parameters. The philosophy of control is based on the use of an open-loop feedback optimal (OLFO) control using a quadratic index of performance. It is shown that the OLFO system consists of (1) an identifier that estimates the system state variables and gain parameters and (2) a controller described by an 'adaptive' gain and correction term. Several qualitative properties and asymptotic properties of the OLFO adaptive system are discussed. Simulation results dealing with the control of stable and unstable third-order plants are presented. The key quantitative result is the precise variation of the control system adaptive gains as a function of the future expected uncertainty of the parameters; thus, in this problem the ordinary 'separation theorem' does not hold.

Tse, E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Quantifying Uncertainties in Land-Surface Microwave Emissivity Retrievals

Uncertainties in the retrievals of microwaveland-surface emissivities are quantified over two types of land surfaces: desert and tropical rainforest. Retrievals from satellite-based microwave imagers, including the Special Sensor Microwave Imager, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager, and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System, are studied. Our results show that there are considerable differences between the retrievals from different sensors and from different groups over these two land-surface types. In addition, the mean emissivity values show different spectral behavior across the frequencies. With the true emissivity assumed largely constant over both of the two sites throughout the study period, the differences are largely attributed to the systematic and random errors inthe retrievals. Generally, these retrievals tend to agree better at lower frequencies than at higher ones, with systematic differences ranging 1%-4% (3-12 K) over desert and 1%-7% (3-20 K) over rainforest. The random errors within each retrieval dataset are in the range of 0.5%-2% (2-6 K). In particular, at 85.5/89.0 GHz, there are very large differences between the different retrieval datasets, and within each retrieval dataset itself. Further investigation reveals that these differences are most likely caused by rain/cloud contamination, which can lead to random errors up to 10-17 K under the most severe conditions.

Land-Surface↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analyzing Non Stationary Processes in Radiometers

The lack of well-developed techniques for modeling changing statistical moments in our observations has stymied the application of stochastic process theory for many scientific and engineering applications. Non linear effects of the observation methodology is one of the most perplexing aspects to modeling non stationary processes. This perplexing problem was encountered when modeling the effect of non stationary receiver fluctuations on the performance of radiometer calibration architectures. Existing modeling approaches were found not applicable; particularly problematic is modeling processes across scales over which they begin to exhibit non stationary behavior within the time interval of the calibration algorithm. Alternatively, the radiometer output is modeled as samples from a sequence random variables; the random variables are treated using a conditional probability distribution function conditioned on the use of the variable in the calibration algorithm. This approach of treating a process as a sequence of random variables with non stationary stochastic moments produce sensible predictions of temporal effects of calibration algorithms. To test these model predictions, an experiment using the Millimeter wave Imaging Radiometer (MIR) was conducted. The MIR with its two black body calibration references was configured in a laboratory setting to observe a third ultra-stable reference (CryoTarget). The MIR was programmed to sequentially sample each of the three references in approximately a 1 second cycle. Data were collected over a six-hour interval. The sequence of reference measurements form an ensemble sample set comprised of a series of three reference measurements. Two references are required to estimate the receiver response. A third reference is used to estimate the uncertainty in the estimate. Typically, calibration algorithms are designed to suppress the non stationary effects of receiver fluctuations. By treating the data sequence as an ensemble collection, it is possible to apply temporal algorithms which exacerbate the non stationary effects. By varying the algorithm, information about the properties of the non stationary receiver fluctuations is obtained. Comparisons of analytical calculations and statistical analysis of data demonstrate impressive agreement.

Racette, Paul↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's CLARREO Pathfinder Mission: The Reflected Solar’s First SITSat

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder mission will take reflected solar (RS) highly accurate measurements needed to monitor Earth’s climate and will be the first RS SI-traceable Satellite Sensor (SITSat). The mission includes a RS spectrometer that will be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) and take measurements for at least one year. CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) will use on-orbit calibration to achieve an unprecedented high accuracy with SI-traceability and the inter-calibration of other on-orbit instruments. The spectrometer is based on the HyperSpectral Imager for Climate Science (HySICS) instrument developed by the University of Colorado/Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics of Boulder, CO, USA. HySICS is being designed to have a radiometric uncertainty of 0.3% (1-sigma), a five to ten times improvement over existing spaceflight RS instruments. High accuracy SI-traceable measurements such as these are critical to develop long-term climate-quality data sets. Additionally, by measuring spectral reflectance with high accuracy the CPF instrument will serve as an on-orbit intercalibration radiometric reference for operational Earth-viewing sensors, such as the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) broadband shortwave instrument and the Visible/Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Two-axis pointing, a spectral range from 350 nm to 2300 nm, and a spectral resolution ≤6 nm enable CPF to provide nearly coincident temporal, spatial, angular, and spectral matching of intercalibration targets, with sampling sufficient to reduce random errors. The intercalibration method will refine knowledge of target sensors’ effective offsets, gain, non-linearity, spectral response, and polarization sensitivity (as is relevant). Calibrated reflectance and reflected radiance spectra will be distributed to the scientific community through a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). We will present an overview of the CLARREO Pathfinder mission, its anticipated impact on monitoring climate variability, and the novel CPF direct intercalibration approach.

climate↗
NASA NTRS2010

4U 1909+07: A Hidden Pearl

We present a detailed spectral and timing analysis of the High Mass X-ray Binary (HMXB) 4U 1909+07 with INTEGRAL and RXTE. 4U 1909+07 is a persistent accreting X-ray pulsar with a period of approximately 605 s. The period changes erratically consistent with a random walk expected for a wind accreting system. INTEGRAL detects the source with an average of 2.4 cps (corresponding to 15 mCrab), but sometimes exhibits flaring activity up to 50 cps (i.e. 300 mCrab). The strongly energy dependent pulse profile shows a double peaked structure at low energies and only a single narrow peak at energies above 20 keV. The phase averaged spectrum is well described by a powerlaw modified at higher energies by an exponential cutoff and photoelectric absorption at low energies. In addition at 6.4 keV a strong iron fluorescence line and at lower energies a black body component are present. We performed phase resolved spectroscopy to study the pulse phase dependence of the spectral parameters: while most spectral parameters are constant within uncertainties, the blackbody normalization and the cutoff folding energy vary strongly with phase.

Kreykenbohm, Ingo↗