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NASA NTRS2009

Strong Solar Control of Infrared Aurora on Jupiter: Correlation Since the Last Solar Maximum

Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora, acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane emission brightness and solar 10.7 cm radio flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high solar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the Europa Jupiter System Mission. Results of observations at the Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) operated by the University of Hawaii under Cooperative Agreement no. NCC5-538 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Science Mission Directorate, Planetary Astronomy Program. This work was supported by the NASA Planetary Astronomy Program.

Kostiuk, T.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Jupiter's Mid-Infrared Aurora: Solar Connection and Minor Constituents

High spectral resolution in the 12 pin region of the polar regions of Jupiter reveal unique information on auroral phenomena and upper stratospheric composition. Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate; throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X-ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based. spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane, emission brightness and solar 10.7-cm radar flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high scalar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. The spectra measured contain features that cannot be attributed to ethane and are most likely spectra of minor constituents whose molecular bands overlap the v9 band of ethane. Possible candidates are allene, propane, and other higher order hydrocarbons. These features appear to be enhanced in the active polar regions. Laboratory measurements at comparable spectral resolution of spectra of candidate molecules will be used to identify the constituents. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the NASA/ESA Europa Jupiter System Mission.

Kostiuk, Theodore↗

NASA NTRS2009

Observations of Infrared Radiative Cooling in the Thermosphere on Daily to Multiyear Timescales from the TIMED/SABER Instrument

We present observations of the infrared radiative cooling by carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO) in Earth s thermosphere. These data have been taken over a period of 7 years by the SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite and are the dominant radiative cooling mechanisms for the thermosphere. From the SABER observations we derive vertical profiles of radiative cooling rates (W/cu m), radiative fluxes (W/sq m), and radiated power (W). In the period from January 2002 through January 2009 we observe a large decrease in the cooling rates, fluxes, and power consistent with the declining phase of solar cycle. The power radiated by NO during 2008 when the Sun exhibited few sunspots was nearly one order of magnitude smaller than the peak power observed shortly after the mission began. Substantial short-term variability in the infrared emissions is also observed throughout the entire mission duration. Radiative cooling rates and radiative fluxes from NO exhibit fundamentally different latitude dependence than do those from CO2, with the NO fluxes and cooling rates being largest at high latitudes and polar regions. The cooling rates are shown to be derived relatively independent of the collisional and radiative processes that drive the departure from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) in the CO2 15 m and the NO 5.3 m vibration-rotation bands. The observed NO and CO2 cooling rates have been compiled into a separate dataset and represent a climate data record that is available for use in assessments of radiative cooling in upper atmosphere general circulation models.

Mlynczak, Martin G.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Global Infrared Energy Budget of the Thermosphere from 1947 to 2016 and Implications for Solar Variability

We present an empirical model of the global infrared energy budget of the thermosphere over the past 70 years. The F(sub 10.7), Ap, and Dst indices are used in linear regression fits to the 14.5 year time series of radiative cooling by carbon dioxide and nitric oxide measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the TIMED satellite. Databases of these indices are used to develop the radiative cooling time series from 1947. No consistent relation between the occurrence of peak sunspot number and peak infrared cooling is found over the past six solar cycles. The total infrared energy radiated by the thermosphere, integrated over a solar cycle, is nearly constant over five complete solar cycles studied. This is a direct consequence of the geoeffective solar energy also being nearly constant over the same intervals. These results provide a new metric for assessing the terrestrial context of the long‐term record of solar‐related indices.

Mlynczak, Martin G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wavelength Calibration of the Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket SpecTrograph (FURST)

The Sun has a well-known periodicity in sunspot number and magnetic field variation. The underlying cause of this 11-year cycle is not fully understood and has yet to be connected with those processes in other stellar objects. The Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket SpecTrograph (FURST) is a sounding rocket payload being developed by Montana State University (MSU) alongside the Marshall Space Flight Center(MSFC) solar physics group. Scheduled to launch from White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) in 2022, this instrument is unique in that it will provide the connection between stellar observatories with measurements of our Sun. It will achieve this through measuring high-resolution full-disk spectral irradiance. We aim to obtain a wavelength resolution R>10,000 in the 120 - 181 nm UltraViolet (UV) range, on par with that of the Hubble (HST) Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). This resolution goal will allow us to study the relatively low-temperature plasma in the chromosphere and lower corona with spectral accuracy down to 0.1 Å (a Doppler-shift of about±30 km/s). In addition, the Lyman Alpha(121 nm) line is known to saturate most CCD electronics. These factors illustrate the particular challenge of precise wavelength calibration for this spectral range. We are building a collimator in order to calibrate the FURST instrument under these strict spectral requirements. This paper will present the results of our simulation of the diagnostic lamp signal to be used for wavelength calibration. The simulation allows us to begin to account for photon noise, electronic readout noise, and statistical error. These in turn lead to the development of our pre- and post-launch calibration plans. Future work includes absolute radiometric and wavelength calibration with this new collimator. In addition, the ability of FURST to measure small Doppler-shifts will provide capabilities for planetary atmospheric scientists. This impact is coupled with the diverse international partnership created by the closely-knit Sounding Rocket teams around the globe. Sounding Rockets like FURST have an even broader impact, as they encourage future satellite missions under the prospect of long-term observations

FURST↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wavelength Calibration of the Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket SpecTrograph: (FURST)

The Sun has a well-known periodicity in sunspot number and magnetic field variation. The underlying cause of this 11-year cycle is not fully understood and has yet to be connected with those processes in other stellar objects. The Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket SpecTrograph (FURST) is a sounding rocket payload being developed by Montana State University (MSU) alongside the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) solar physics group. Scheduled to launch from White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) in 2022, this instrument is unique in that it will provide the connection between stellar observatories with measurements of our Sun. It will achieve this through extremely high-resolution full-disk spectroscopy in EUV. We aim to obtain a wavelength resolution R > 10,000 in the 115 - 181 nm range, on par with that of the Hubble (HST) Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). The Lyman Alpha line (121 nm) is known to oversaturate most CCD electronics and is of particular challenge for this spectral range. In addition, this resolution goal will allow us to study the 3 km/s motion (a Doppler-shift of about 0.01 Angstroms) of the relatively low-temperature plasma in the chromosphere and lower corona. This paper will present the results of our simulation of the diagnostic lamp signal to be used in this wavelength calibration. To test the viability of this precise of a device, we are building a collimator capable of calibrating the FURST instrument under these strict radiometric requirements. By way of a diagnostic lamp simulation, we will account for photon noise, CCD electronic readout noise, and statistical error. These will lead to the development of our pre- and post-launch calibration plan. Future work includes absolute radiometric and wavelength calibration with this new collimator. In addition, the ability of FURST to measure extremely small Doppler-shifts will provide capabilities for planetary atmospheric scientists. This impact is coupled with the diverse international partnership created by the closely-knit Sounding Rocket teams across the globe. These Sounding Rockets have an even broader impact, as they encourage future satellite missions under the prospect of long-term observations.

FURST↗

NASA NTRS2002

Comparing Sunspot Area and Sunspot Number as Proxies for Long-term Solar Irradiance Variation

Because relevant observations from space began only in 1979 with Nimbus-7, it is impossible to correlate direct measurements of small changes in solar irradiance with terrestrial temperature over a number of solar cycles. Yet there is recent evidence that some feature of solar change over a cycle may have a larger influence on climate than would result from merely introducing the additional amount of heat delivered to Earth's atmosphere at solar minimum. It would be useful to check this possibility over several solar cycles. To do this, we would need a sufficiently reliable proxy for irradiance change that at least survives a test against the space observations. Sunspot area is a fairly straightforward parameter to measure, and is associated with the extent of magnetic activity known to correlate strongly with solar irradiance change. We have tested the use of sunspot area as a long-term proxy for solar irradiance change, using observations made at the Coimbra Solar Observatory, from which we obtain both statistically weighted sunspot numbers and sunspot areas over the period 1980-1992. These are both correlated with solar irradiance values measured from Nimbus-7 spacecraft over the same time period, to see if sunspot area offers affords a strong positive correlation and also a distinct advantage over sunspot number as a useful proxy that can then be compared with terrestrial temperature records. Preliminary results yield a positive correlation of 0.71 for sunspot area, but further tests are being conducted and will be reported.

Jordan, Stuart D.↗

NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) A Geomagnetic Contribution to Climate Change in this Century

There is a myth that all solar effects can be parameterized by the sun spot number. This is not true. For example, the level of geomagnetic activity during this century was not proportional to the sunspot number. Instead there is a large systematic increase in geomagnetic activity, not reflected in the sunspot number. This increase occurred gradually over at least 60 years. The 11 year solar cycle variation was superimposed on this systematic increase. Here we show that this systematic increase in activity is well correlated to the simultaneous increase in terrestrial temperature that occurred during the first half of this century. We discuss these findings in terms of mechanisms by which geomagnetics can be coupled to climate. These mechanisms include possible changes in weather patterns and cloud cover due to increased cosmic ray fluxes, or to increased fluxes of high energy electrons. We suggest that this systematic increase in geomagnetic activity contributed (along with anthropogenic effects and possible changes in solar irradiance) to the changes in climate recorded during this period.

electrons solar irradiance terrestrial temperature↗

NASA NTRS2008

On the Relationship Between Solar Wind Speed, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Solar Cycle Using Annual Values

The aa index can be decomposed into two separate components: the leading sporadic component due to solar activity as measured by sunspot number and the residual or recurrent component due to interplanetary disturbances, such as coronal holes. For the interval 1964-2006, a highly statistically important correlation (r = 0.749) is found between annual averages of the aa index and the solar wind speed (especially between the residual component of aa and the solar wind speed, r = 0.865). Because cyclic averages of aa (and the residual component) have trended upward during cycles 11-23, cyclic averages of solar wind speed are inferred to have also trended upward.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Asymmetries in the modulation of protons and helium nuclei over two solar cycles

Measurements of proton and helium spectra over two cycles of solar modulation show large asymmetries in modulation. These effects are apparent at sunspot minimum conditions in 1965 and 1977, where a much larger intensity is observed in 1977, and also at sunspot maximum conditions where a much lower intensity is observed in 1981 relative to 1970. The details of this asymmetry are discussed and possible causes are considered.

Webber, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Varves and solar physics

The relationship between varves (visibly striated rocks deposited by glacial run-off) and solar radiation is discussed, proposing that the thickness of any given varve represents the mean annual sunspot number for the year in which the varve was laid down. The solar cycle may entail a deep torsional oscillator whose influence reaches the surface by wave propagation. Several observed features suggest a wave link between the source of solar activity and its surface manifestations. It is suggested that the cause of varve modulation is solar UV and X-ray radiation, which exerts solar cycle influence in the ozonosphere and ionosphere. The undulations and cycles of the Elatina varve bed formation in South Australia are related to solar phenomena. The varve mechanism is significant for the build-up of the protective shield of biogenic oxygen in the palaeoatmosphere.

Bracewell, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Observed variability of the solar luminosity

Data on solar luminosity variations are compiled in graphs and analyzed, with a focus on the SMM satellite bolometric measurements and other observations made since 1983. Consideration is given to total irradiance measurements in integrated light; emission-line variability in the visible, UV, and IR; mechanisms contributing to the solar variability (sunspots, faculae, rotation, oscillations, granulation, and active networks); the role of the solar magnetic cycle; and other observable parameters indicating variability. Also discussed are the effects of solar variations on the earth climate and the implications of the observations for theoretical models of convective-envelope processes (thermal diffusion near the surface and magnetic pressure in the interior).

Hudson, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Linear and circular digital spectral analysis of serial data

Two methods of digital spectral analysis of unevenly sampled data are developed and illustrated here. One method uses a linear function of time (or space), the other uses circular functions. The circular method turns out to be essentially equivalent to a least-squares sine-wave analysis. The linear, anharmonic method uses only the field of real numbers and elementary algebraic operations, and hence it can be made computationally very fast and accurate. Both methods are very general, properly handling all kinds of time series ranging from simple series consisting only of the times of events to complicated series consisting of pulses with long duty cycles. The two methods are here applied to the analysis of annual mean relative sunspot numbers.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of Total Solar Irradiance with NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph Data in Solar Cycles 22 and 23

An earlier study compared NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph (SPM) data with spacecraft measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) variations over a 1.5 year period in the declining phase of solar cycle 22. This paper extends the analysis to an eight-year period which also spans the rising and early maximum phases of cycle 23. The conclusions of the earlier work appear to be robust: three factors (sunspots, strong unipolar regions, and strong mixed polarity regions) describe most of the variation in the SPM record, but only the first two are associated with TSI. Additionally, the residuals of a linear multiple regression of TSI against SPM observations over the entire eight-year period show an unexplained, increasing, linear time variation with a rate of about 0.05 W m(exp -2) per year. Separate regressions for the periods before and after 1996 January 01 show no unexplained trends but differ substantially in regression parameters. This behavior may reflect a solar source of TSI variations beyond sunspots and faculae but more plausibly results from uncompensated non-solar effects in one or both of the TSI and SPM data sets.

Jones, Harrison P.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗

NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

Suggs, Ron↗

NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

Suggs, Ron↗

NASA NTRS1993

Solar cycle variation of interplanetary disturbances observed as Doppler scintillation transients

Interplanetary disturbances characterized by plasma that is more turbulence and/or moves faster than the background solar wind are readily defected as transients in Doppler scintillation measurements of the near-Sun solar wind. Systematic analysis of over 23,000 hours of Pioneer Venus Orbiter Doppler measurements obtained inside 0.5 AU during 1979-1987 have made it possible for the first time to investigate the frequency of occurrence of Doppler scintillation transients under solar minimum conditions and to determine its dependence on solar cycle. On the basis of a total of 142 transients, Doppler scintillation transient rates vary from a high of 0.22 in 1979 (one every 4.6 days) to a low of 0.077 transients/d in 1986 (one every 13 days), a decrease by almost a factor of 3 from solar maximum to solar minimum. This solar cycle variation, the strongest yet of any solar wind Doppler scintillation property, is highly correlated with both solar activity characterized by sunspot number and the coronal mass ejection rates deduced from Solswind and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) coronagraph observations. These results indicate that coronal mass ejections and Doppler scintillation transients are closely related not just during solar maximum, as occasional individual comparisons have shown in the past, but throughout the entire solar cycle, and strengthen the notation that the Doppler scintillation and optical transients are different manifestations of the same physical phenomenon. The magnitudes of the transients, as described by the ratio of peak to pretransient scintillation levels (EF for enhancement factor), and their distribution iwth heliocentric distance also vary with solar cycle. While EF tends to diminish with increasing heliocentric distance during high solar activity, it is more evenly distributed during low solar activity. EF is also lower during solar minimum, as 13% of the transients during solar maximum have values exceeding 23, the highest EF observed during solar minimum. These results are consistent with the fact that occasional major fast-moving interplanetary shocks that are observed during solar maximum are very rate during solar minimum.

Woo, Richard↗