SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Scenario Development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1999

The Effects of Magnetic Anomalies Discovered at Mars on the Structure of the Martian Ionosphere and the Solar Wind Interaction as Follows from Radio Occultation Experiments

The electron density distribution in the ionosphere of nonmagnetic (or weakly magnetized) planet depends not only on the solar ultraviolet intensity, but also on the nature of the SW interaction with this planet. Two scenarios previously have been developed based on the observations of the bow shock crossings and on the electron density distribution within the ionosphere. According to one of them Mars has an intrinsic magnetosphere produced by a dipole magnetic field and the Martian ionosphere is protected from the SW flow except during "overpressure conditions, when the planetary magnetic field can not balance the SW dynamic pressure. In the second scenario the Martian intrinsic magnetic dipole field is so weak that Mars has mainly an induced magnetosphere and a Venus-like SW/ionosphere interaction. Today the possible existence of a sufficiently strong global magnetic field that participates in the SW/Mars interaction can no longer be supported. The results obtained by the Mars-Global-Surveyor (MGS) space-craft show the existence of highly variable, but also very localized magnetic fields of crustal origin at Mars as high as 400-1500 nT. The absence of the large-scale global magnetic field at Mars makes it similar to Venus, except for possible effects of the magnetic anomalies associated with the remnant crustal magnetization. However the previous results on the Martian ionosphere obtained mainly by the radio occultation methods show that there appears to be a permanent existence of a global horizontal magnetic field in the Martian ionosphere. Moreover the global induced magnetic field in the Venus ionosphere is not typical at the solar zenith angles explored by the radio occultation methods. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Ness, N. F.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Lunar and Mars missions - Challenges for advanced life support

The development of a suite of scenarios is a prerequisite to the studies that will enable an informed decision by the United States on a program to meet the recently announced space policy goal to expand human presence beyond earth orbit. NASA's Office of Exploration is currently studying a range of initiative options that would extend the sphere of human activity in space to Mars and include permanent bases or outposts on the moon and on Mars. This paper describes the evolutionary lunar base and the Mars expedition scenarios in some detail so that an evaluation can be made from the point of view of human support and opportunities. Alternative approaches in the development of lunar outposts are outlined along with Mars expeditionary scenarios. Human environmental issues are discussed, including: closed loop life support systems; EVA systems; mobility systems; and medical support, physiological deconditioning, and psychological effects associated with long-duration missions.

Duke, Michael B.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Time-dependent scenario modeling for the ST-E1 fusion power plant

ST-E1 is a low aspect ratio fusion power plant being designed by Tokamak Energy targeting 1.5 GW of fusion power. Characterization of the ST-E1 flat-top scenario is described elsewhere McNamara et al (2026 Nucl. Fusion 66 086008); here we focus on addressing the question of how to ramp-up the ST-E1 plasma from an initial state following breakdown and flux-surface formation to the target flat-top state. Being low-aspect ratio, the available solenoid flux of ST-E1 is limited. Therefore, particular consideration is placed on developing ramp-up scenarios that predominantly use inductive flux provided by external vertical field coils. Through time-dependent modeling with METIS, we show that this is possible when the ramp-up is performed at relatively high plasma density: although auxiliary current drive efficiency is reduced, this is significantly outweighed by (1) higher electron-ion collisional equilibration, (2) higher fusion power once ions become sufficiently hot, (3) higher poloidal beta for increased vertical-field flux, and (4) potentially favorable exhaust compatibilities. Ultimately, we show the target ST-E1 flat-top performance can be reached after a ramp-up period lasting 150 s using less than 40 Vs of solenoid flux (with vertical field providing ∼ 90 Vs of flux). The sensitivity to model assumptions are presented, with the general observation that deleterious effects can be mitigated through minor alterations of the auxiliary power temporal waveform and/or total auxiliary power level. The impact of a solenoid and the auxiliary power mix (electron cyclotron heating only versus electron and ion cyclotron heating) on the ST-E1 ramp-up success are also discussed in appendices. On this latter topic, we show that the effect of direct-ion heating during ramp-up is obscured by the uncertainty in the pedestal dynamics, identifying a clear line of future work required to make a definite decision on the ST-E1 auxiliary power mix.

current ramp-up↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Missed Approach Procedures in Advanced Air Mobility: Conceptual Exploration

The High Density Vertiplex Sub-Project, as part of NASA’s Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) Project, has been in collaboration with a team from Wisk Aero focusing on vertiport operations, procedures, and concept development. A particular area of focus has been on the development of missed approach scenarios and procedures that highlight the potential changes in the nearer- and further-term operational time frames. Such changes relate to topic areas such as airspace design, automation and autonomy, roles and responsibilities of actors and stakeholders, airspace management services and systems, as well as technologies specific to vertiport operations management. This presentation encompasses the content of the associated paper that presents the current state of joint concept development through the established collaboration and the application of elements in ongoing testing as part of NASA’s High Density Vertiplex Sub-Project’s research strategy.

vertiport↗

NASA NTRS1996

Human-Centered Technologies and Procedures for Future Air Traffic Management: A Preliminary Overview of 1996 Studies and Results

In this project, we have been exploring the use of a general methodology to predict the impact of future Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts and technologies. In applying this methodology, our emphasis has been on the importance of modeling coordination and cooperation among the multiple agents within this system, and on understanding how the interactions among these agents will be influenced as new roles, responsibilities, procedures and technologies are introduced. To accomplish this, we have been collecting data on performance under the current air traffic management system, trying to identify critical problem areas and looking for exemplars suggestive of general approaches for solving such problems. Based on the results of these field studies, we have developed a set of scenarios centered around potential future system designs, and have conducted studies using these scenarios involving a total 40 controllers, dispatchers, pilots and traffic managers. The purpose of this report is to provide NASA with an early summary of the major recommendations that have resulted from our research under the AATT Program thus far. Recommendations 1-3 deal with general approaches that our findings suggest should be incorporated in future AATT Program activities, while Recommendations 4-11 identify some specific topics and technologies that merit research and development activities. Detailed technical reports containing supporting data, as well as the results of our still ongoing analyses, will be provided at a later date. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Section 1 briefly describes the general design philosophy supported by our empirical studies. Section 2 presents the research methods we have used for identifying requirements for future system designs and for evaluating alternative design solutions. Section 3 discusses preliminary results from an initial set of investigations that we have conducted using these research methods. Section 4 then provides an overall summary. An outline of the rest of this preliminary project summary is provided on the following page.

Smith, Philip↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Global Exploration Roadmap: Opportunities for Lunar Science

The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document.This poster will focus on developing the Lunar Vicinity scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reportsdocuments into the GER. The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario.The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program, the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG), the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG, the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM), and two journal articles, the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration, and the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration.In addition, the ISECG is in the process of developing a Science White Paper (SWP) to accompany the next edition of the GER, due in late 2016. The SWP will be an important tool to communicate science which will be able to be accomplished at human exploration destinations to policymakers. This abstract will discuss the process of developing this SWP and ways in which the global science community can become engaged in its development.

Schmidt, Gregory↗

NASA NTRS2012

Space Launch System Mission Flexibility Assessment

The Space Launch System (SLS) is envisioned as a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) missions. While multiple assessments have been performed to determine the optimal configuration for the SLS, this effort was undertaken to evaluate the flexibility of various concepts for the range of missions that may be required of this system. These mission scenarios include single launch crew and/or cargo delivery to LEO, single launch cargo delivery missions to LEO in support of multi-launch mission campaigns, and single launch beyond LEO missions. Specifically, we assessed options for the single launch beyond LEO mission scenario using a variety of in-space stages and vehicle staging criteria. This was performed to determine the most flexible (and perhaps optimal) method of designing this particular type of mission. A specific mission opportunity to the Jovian system was further assessed to determine potential solutions that may meet currently envisioned mission objectives. This application sought to significantly reduce mission cost by allowing for a direct, faster transfer from Earth to Jupiter and to determine the order-of-magnitude mass margin that would be made available from utilization of the SLS. In general, smaller, existing stages provided comparable performance to larger, new stage developments when the mission scenario allowed for optimal LEO dropoff orbits (e.g. highly elliptical staging orbits). Initial results using this method with early SLS configurations and existing Upper Stages showed the potential of capturing Lunar flyby missions as well as providing significant mass delivery to a Jupiter transfer orbit.

Monk, Timothy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seamless Integration of Multibody and Orbital Dynamics to Support Human Spaceflight Simulations

At the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), modeling capability requirements are often driven by the need to simulate upcoming mission scenarios for analysis, procedures development, and training. In preparation for free-flyer vehicle capture, maneuvers, and release, it was determined that the multibody dynamics capabilities provided by MBDyn and the orbital dynamics capabilities supplied by JEOD needed to be merged to properly simulate the dynamic behaviors expected on-orbit. After initial attempts to combine the two packages proved cumbersome, it was decided that a more refined solution was required to facilitate the interface between these two packages. The resulting interface software package was named MBJEOD. The primary design goals for this new package were to leave MBDyn and JEOD untouched, to simplify and clarify simulation initialization for users, and to support any topology or on-orbit operational scenario that future missions might require. This paper provides a detailed overview of MBJEOD and the approach taken to seamlessly integrate the multibody dynamics of MBDyn with the orbital dynamics of JEOD. Additional attention is given to the numerical considerations required for MBJEOD and the simplifying assumptions leveraged to provide for real-time simulation needs. Verification and validation are addressed and current MBJEOD applications at the NASA JSC are discussed.

modeling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seamless Integration of Multibody and Orbital Dynamics to Support Human Spaceflight Simulations

modeling↗

NASA NTRS2003

Industry Consolidation and Future Airline Network Structures in Europe

In the current downturn in demand for air travel, major airlines are revising and rationalizing their networks in an attempt to improve financial performance and strengthen their defences against both new entrants and traditional rivals. Expansion of commercial agreements or alliances with other airlines has become a key reaction to the increasingly competitive marketplace. In the absence, for regulatory reasons, of cross-border mergers these are the principal means by which the industry can consolidate internationally. This paper analyzes the developments which have been taking place and attempts to itentify the implications for airline network structures and the function of different hub airports. The range of services available to passengers in long-haul markets to/from Europe is evaluated before and after recent industry reorganization. Hubs are crucial to interlink the route networks of parmers in an alliance. However, duplication between nearby hub airports that find themselves within the same airline alliance can lead to loss of service at the weaker locations. The extent to which the alliance hubs in Europe duplicate or complement each other in terms of network coverage is assessed and this methodology also enables the optimal partnerships for "unattached" airlines to be identified. The future role of the various European hubs is considered under different scenarios of global alliance development. The paper concludes by considering possible longer-term developments. In an environment where the low-cost carriers will provide a major element of customer choice, it is suggested that the traditional airlines will retrench around their hubs, surrendering many secondary cities to the low-cost sector. Further reduction in the number of alliances could threaten more of the European hubs. For both regulatory and commercial reasons, the end result may be just one airline alliance - so recreating in the deregulated market the historic rule of IATA.

Dennis, Nigel↗

DOE OSTI2025

Land of Opportunity: Potential for Renewable Energy on Federal Lands

Renewable energy (RE) in the United States has historically been deployed primarily on private lands, but the growing interest in RE development, generally across the country and specifically on federal lands, raises questions about the potential for RE on public lands. This study seeks to estimate RE technical potential on federal lands and project the amount of RE to be developed on federal lands under decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States. The study applied a combination of high-resolution geospatial analysis and power sector modeling and relied on multiple partner federal agencies and land administrators from the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Energy. In our reference siting access case, we estimate 44 million acres of federal land across the contiguous United States is potentially suitable for UPV development, which corresponds to a capacity technical potential of 5,750 gigawatts (GW) (Figure ES-1). Federal land area available for wind development is similar to UPV but wind’s generating capacity technical potential is lower (875 GW). The technical potential is estimated for two geothermal technologies, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), both of which have a smaller amount of federal land available for development (12 and 27 million acres, respectively). However, in terms of capacity, the technical potential for EGS (975 GW) is approximately equal to wind’s technical potential and there is an estimated 130 GW of hydrothermal potential. We also developed cases with more-limited land available for UPV and wind (for federal and non-federal lands) resulting in 96% reduction of wind capacity potential and 70% reduction for UPV. In a case with additional constraints applied to non-federal lands only (Limited Private), the overall (federal and non-federal) technical potential declines but the share of that technical potential on federal lands is higher than in the other siting cases. The technical potential is the maximum amount that could be developed, but only a small fraction would be developed or needed in the future. Across seven scenarios that achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, we estimate 26 GW to 270 GW of RE capacity could be deployed on federal lands by 2035. The three central scenarios have 51–84 GW of RE deployed by 2035 and requiring about 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres of total land area. Direct land consumption is less than total land use required, thus enabling co-use opportunities. The large technical potential estimates and the increasing deployment projections from the collection of scenarios show the opportunities for RE development on federal lands. Capturing these opportunities-while minimizing conflicts with other land uses, federal department or agency missions, and public interest, and simultaneously maximizing the economic, grid, and social value of the projects-would require collaborative planning among federal land administrators, grid planners, project developers, the public, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2015

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: Chapter - 5

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work plan, and has been the subject of ongoing work by AgMIP since its creation.

agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2025

Correlation Between Weather Alerts and Grid Component Failures for Grid Alert

Weather events cause most grid failures. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Recent research at Idaho National Laboratory into electric grid risk analysis methods resulted in a tool that allows for the development of the most likely scenarios given failure probabilities of grid components. INL has a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) program to develop a Grid Alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios uses MASTERRI and then notifies the utility if there is significant risk. Historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid have been compiled by utilities and organizations such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates are needed for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures are correlated with historic weather events from Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. This discusses the Grid Alert project plan but focuses on the data gathered and process used in determining failure rates for possible grid failure scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

High compressive energy absorption and shape recovery behavior of additively manufactured textile-inspired cylindrical braided metamaterials

Mechanical metamaterials (MMs) are engineered structures with unique mechanical properties that arise from their unique spatial arrangement or lattice-like structure. The most commonly designed MMs such as honeycomb and re-entrant auxetics are prone to failure at the sharp corners and weak joints due to the increased stress concentration under deformation. To mitigate this challenge, braided MM structures involving intertwining threads of nylon—forming curved unit cells—have been studied. These textile-inspired cylindrical braided metamaterials (CBMMs) with contrasting unit cells, namely diamond and regular CBMMs, were fabricated by 3D printing. The layer-by-layer deposited structure built by fused filament fabrication delivered an assembly of overlapped threads that are fused at the contact point. To understand deformation behavior of these MMs, finite element models were developed for various load scenarios including quasi-static compression, cyclic and creep loads at room temperature. Stress distribution, deformation mechanisms, and failure modes were analyzed and validated by experiments to analyze the geometries and associated performance. The diamond CBMMs showed stress softening at 30 % compressive strain, withstanding a load of ∼440 N, whereas the regular CBMMs at 50 % strain experienced ∼250 N. The diamond CBMMs delivered higher creep resistance under sustained load and better energy absorption under cyclic loading than the regular CBMMs. The latter, however, exhibited 94 % shape recovery in contrast to 88 % recovery in former prototype during their first cyclic load. In conclusion, this study helps design mechanical lightweight devices that endure significant sustained load and exhibit enhanced energy absorption and shape recovery characteristics in cyclic loading.

Creep↗

DOE OSTI2025

One‐at‐a‐Time Parameter Perturbation Ensemble of the Community Land Model, Version 5.1

Comprehensive land models are subject to significant parametric uncertainty, which can be hard to quantify due to the large number of parameters and high model computational costs. We constructed a large parameter perturbation ensemble (PPE) for the Community Land Model version 5.1 with biogeochemistry configuration (CLM5.1-BGC). We performed more than 2,000 simulations perturbing 211 parameters across six forcing scenarios. This provides an expansive data set, which can be used to identify the most influential parameters on a wide range of output variables globally, by biome, or by plant functional type. We found that parameter effects can exceed scenario effects and that a small number of parameters explains a large fraction of variance across our ensemble. The most important parameters can differ regionally and also based on the forcing scenario. The software infrastructure developed for this experiment has greatly reduced the human and computer time needed for CLM PPEs, which can facilitate routine investigation of parameter sensitivity and uncertainty, as well as automated calibration.

Kennedy, Daniel [NSF National Center for Atmospher↗

DOE OSTI2026

Radiation-front position control with scenario adjustments during the first tungsten divertor operation on KSTAR

This study reports the first experimental demonstration of a radiation front-based detachment control system during the initial tungsten divertor campaign in KSTAR. The system employs real-time infrared video bolometry with tomographic reconstruction to track the inboard radiation-front position, which served as a feedback variable for impurity seeding. In a baseline scenario without pre-D 2 fueling, tungsten accumulation triggered core radiation surges and repetitive H–L back transitions. In contrast, with pre-D 2 fueling, detachment was stabilized by maintaining higher edge-localized mode frequency, suppressing core tungsten buildup, and reducing sputtering, thereby enabling sustained feedback control. The suitability of the inboard front position as a detachment control metric was confirmed by its correlation with the degree of detachment: with D 2 fueling the relation exhibited a broad hysteresis loop characteristic of momentum-loss-dominated detachment, whereas with N 2 fueling, it became narrow and nearly vertical, consistent with radiation-loss-dominated pinning. These results provide a proof-of-principle for radiation-front-based detachment control, demonstrating its viability as a control approach. At the same time, these results clarify that the detachment outcomes were further conditioned by impurity transport characteristics of tungsten divertor operation in KSTAR, providing guidance for future scenario optimization and controller development in tungsten devices.

KSTAR↗

DOE OSTI2024

Denodo Test App

SAND2025-12401O The Denodo Testing Tool allows Denodo users to easily automate the testing for data virtualization scenarios during virtualized solutions development and maintenance, acting as a safety net before applying any significant changes to these environments. The Denodo Testing Tool is an application that is executable from the command line with a simple user interface.

Gross, Alan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗