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NASA NTRS2012

A Comparison of Filter-based Approaches for Model-based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches use domain knowledge about a system and its failure modes through the use of physics-based models. Model-based prognosis is generally divided into two sequential problems: a joint state-parameter estimation problem, in which, using the model, the health of a system or component is determined based on the observations; and a prediction problem, in which, using the model, the stateparameter distribution is simulated forward in time to compute end of life and remaining useful life. The first problem is typically solved through the use of a state observer, or filter. The choice of filter depends on the assumptions that may be made about the system, and on the desired algorithm performance. In this paper, we review three separate filters for the solution to the first problem: the Daum filter, an exact nonlinear filter; the unscented Kalman filter, which approximates nonlinearities through the use of a deterministic sampling method known as the unscented transform; and the particle filter, which approximates the state distribution using a finite set of discrete, weighted samples, called particles. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we conduct a number of simulation-based experiments investigating the performance of the different algorithms as applied to prognostics.

prognostics↗

NASA NTRS1981

A computer program for the simulation of heat and moisture flow in soils

A computer program that simulates the flow of heat and moisture in soils is described. The space-time dependence of temperature and moisture content is described by a set of diffusion-type partial differential equations. The simulator uses a predictor/corrector to numerically integrate them, giving wetness and temperature profiles as a function of time. The simulator was used to generate solutions to diffusion-type partial differential equations for which analytical solutions are known. These equations include both constant and variable diffusivities, and both flux and constant concentration boundary conditions. In all cases, the simulated and analytic solutions agreed to within the error bounds which were imposed on the integrator. Simulations of heat and moisture flow under actual field conditions were also performed. Ground truth data were used for the boundary conditions and soil transport properties. The qualitative agreement between simulated and measured profiles is an indication that the model equations are reasonably accurate representations of the physical processes involved.

Camillo, P.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Unsteady Analysis of Separated Aerodynamic Flows Using an Unstructured Multigrid Algorithm

An implicit method for the computation of unsteady flows on unstructured grids is presented. The resulting nonlinear system of equations is solved at each time step using an agglomeration multigrid procedure. The method allows for arbitrarily large time steps and is efficient in terms of computational effort and storage. Validation of the code using a one-equation turbulence model is performed for the well-known case of flow over a cylinder. A Detached Eddy Simulation model is also implemented and its performance compared to the one equation Spalart-Allmaras Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence model. Validation cases using DES and RANS include flow over a sphere and flow over a NACA 0012 wing including massive stall regimes. The project was driven by the ultimate goal of computing separated flows of aerodynamic interest, such as massive stall or flows over complex non-streamlined geometries.

Pelaez, Juan↗

NASA NTRS2019

Advanced Modular Power System Electronics Enclosure Thermal Testing

An analysis was set up to model the temperature of the advanced modular power system (AMPS) power distribution cards when installed within the electronics enclosure case. The analysis was used to determine the steady-state temperature distribution of the cards within the case. To verify the analysis, an experiment was set up and conducted to simulate the operation of the cards within the enclosure. Four tests were conducted. The tests varied the position of the cold plate and evaluated the use of a thermal compound to reduce the contact resistance between the joints within the thermal path between the cards and the cold plate. Three of the four cases examined showed very good agreement between the analysis and the experiment with a less than 1-percent variation in the predicated temperatures determined through the analysis and the experimentally derived temperatures. In the remaining case, the difference between the analysis and experiment was approximately 12 percent. Both the experiment and analysis showed that the modular power conditioning cards can be maintained within their desired maximum operating temperature range of 40 to 45 °C through thermal conduction to a cold plate when operating with their estimated maximum heat output of 16 W per card.

Colozza, Anthony J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Improving Numerical Weather Predictions of Summertime Precipitation Over the Southeastern U.S. Through a High-Resolution Initialization of the Surface State

It is hypothesized that high-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and sea surface temperature are necessary to improve simulations of summertime pulse-type convective precipitation in high resolution models. This paper presents model verification results of a case study period from June-August 2008 over the Southeastern U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical weather prediction model. Experimental simulations initialized with high-resolution land surface fields from the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are compared to a set of control simulations initialized with interpolated fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 12-km North American Mesoscale model. The LIS land surface and MODIS SSTs provide a more detailed surface initialization at a resolution comparable to the 4-km model grid spacing. Soil moisture from the LIS spin-up run is shown to respond better to the extreme rainfall of Tropical Storm Fay in August 2008 over the Florida peninsula. The LIS has slightly lower errors and higher anomaly correlations in the top soil layer, but exhibits a stronger dry bias in the root zone. The model sensitivity to the alternative surface initial conditions is examined for a sample case, showing that the LIS/MODIS data substantially impact surface and boundary layer properties.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Application of artificial neural networks in hydrological modeling: A case study of runoff simulation of a Himalayan glacier basin

The simulation of runoff from a Himalayan Glacier basin using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is presented. The performance of the ANN model is found to be superior to the Energy Balance Model and the Multiple Regression model. The RMS Error is used as the figure of merit for judging the performance of the three models, and the RMS Error for the ANN model is the latest of the three models. The ANN is faster in learning and exhibits excellent system generalization characteristics.

Buch, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Adaptive spacecraft attitude control utilizing eigenaxis rotations

Conventional and adaptive attitude control of spacecraft which use control moment gyros (CMG's) as torque sources are discussed. Control laws predicated on the assumption of a linear system are used since the spacecraft equations of motion are formulated in an 'eigenaxis system' so that they are essentially linear during 'slow' maneuvers even if large angles are involved. The overall control schemes are 'optimal' in several senses. Eigenaxis rotations and a weighted pseudo-inverse CMG steering law are used and, in the adaptive case, a Model Reference Adaptive System (MRAS) controller based on Liapunov's Second Method is adopted. To substantiate the theory, digital simulation results obtained using physical parameters of a Large Space Telescope type spacecraft are presented. These results indicate that an adaptive control law is often desirable.

Cochran, J. E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Simplified Worst-Case Analysis of Complex Systems

Statistical method avoids excessive computer time. Technique involves simplified Monte Carlo simulation of system with randomly chosen parameters and comparison of tolerance extremes of several of worst-case situations found. Resulting combination of tolerance extremes then used in detailed analysis - one that makes use of full complex nonlinear model capable of accurate simulations.

Pond, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Innovative Approaches to Using the International Space Station as a Mars Transit Analog

Human research on the International Space Station (ISS) crew has made significant advances in understanding of the effects of physiology on human health in space missions. However, ISS has not been as suitable for research on other hazards of human spaceflight such as isolation and communications delay. NASA recently completed a special assessment of whether modifications could be made to operations or facilities so that ISS could be used more effectively as an analog to simulate long-duration crew missions beyond low earth orbit. A cross-disciplinary team met to identify concept of operations, trade spaces, challenges, and opportunities to making ISS more operationally relevant as a Mars transit mission analog, and the results and implementation plans are summarized in this manuscript. In addition to the use case of 12-month missions (already in planning by the NASA ISS Program to bound expected Mars transit durations), three new use cases where ISS could provide valuable high-fidelity experience were identified. (1) Testing of operations procedures and medical care could be enhanced by demonstrating crew handling a simulated medical event in microgravity, autonomously, and with significant communications delay. (2) Isolation and confinement effects of deep space transit could be studied on ISS to validate current habitable volume requirements for Mars transit as well as provide context for evaluating the results of the extensive ground-based simulations in HERA and NEK. A trade study of possible operational and hardware changes that would make ISS applicable to these use cases was completed. (3) Surface operations after the physiological deconditioning of a long transit could be conducted to validate crew ability to perform critical ground tasks after 6-month Mars transit and aid in conceptual design of Mars surface element architectures. Each of the case studies includes a trade space between operational impacts on nominal ISS activities and degree of fidelity. A phased approach to implementation means that several "quick start" activities can be done in 2019-2020 at the same time as planning continues for more complex exploration analog options beginning as early as 2022. The team determined that many of these quick-start tasks could be done with available assets, entirely independent of other exploration system development timelines (such as Orion, Space Launch System). The consideration of the full suite of human spaceflight capabilities in the lunar vicinity can also be included as each step in human exploration serves as a simulation opportunity for some aspect of subsequent missions. Further discussions of options with the international community are critical for considering the benefits as well as impacts of simulation activities on ISS, as well as to better formulate future mission architectures.

Robinson, Julie A.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Extensions of the space trajectories error analysis programs

A generalized covariance analysis technique which permits the study of the sensitivity of linear estimation algorithms to errors in a priori statistics has been developed and programed. Several sample cases are presented to illustrate the use of this technique. Modifications to the Simulated Trajectories Error Analysis Program (STEAP) to enable targeting a multiprobe mission of the Planetary Explorer type are discussed. The logic for the mini-probe targeting is presented. Finally, the initial phases of the conversion of the Viking mission Lander Trajectory Reconstruction (LTR) program for use on Venus missions is discussed. An integrator instability problem is discussed and a solution proposed.

Adams, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Nonlinear estimation theory applied to the interplanetary orbit determination problem.

The performance of a second order filter which is identical to the algorithm developed by Athans et al. (1968) for the scalar case is evaluated through numerical simulation of a Jupiter flyby mission. The observations used in the simulation are on-board measurements of the angle between Jupiter and a fixed star taken at discrete time intervals. In the numerical study, the influence of each of the second order terms is evaluated.

Tapley, B. D.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Water impact analysis of space shuttle solid rocket motor by the finite element method

Preliminary analysis showed that the doubly curved triangular shell elements were too stiff for these shell structures. The doubly curved quadrilateral shell elements were found to give much improved results. A total of six load cases were analyzed in this study. The load cases were either those resulting from a static test using reaction straps to simulate the drop conditions or under assumed hydrodynamic conditions resulting from a drop test. The latter hydrodynamic conditions were obtained through an emperical fit of available data. Results obtained from a linear analysis were found to be consistent with results obtained elsewhere with NASTRAN and BOSOR. The nonlinear analysis showed that the originally assumed loads would result in failure of the shell structures. The nonlinear analysis also showed that it was useful to apply internal pressure as a stabilizing influence on collapse. A final analysis with an updated estimate of load conditions resulted in linear behavior up to full load.

Buyukozturk, O.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Random vibration analysis of space flight hardware using NASTRAN

During liftoff and ascent flight phases, the Space Transportation System (STS) and payloads are exposed to the random acoustic environment produced by engine exhaust plumes and aerodynamic disturbances. The analysis of payloads for randomly fluctuating loads is usually carried out using the Miles' relationship. This approximation technique computes an equivalent load factor as a function of the natural frequency of the structure, the power spectral density of the excitation, and the magnification factor at resonance. Due to the assumptions inherent in Miles' equation, random load factors are often over-estimated by this approach. In such cases, the estimates can be refined using alternate techniques such as time domain simulations or frequency domain spectral analysis. Described here is the use of NASTRAN to compute more realistic random load factors through spectral analysis. The procedure is illustrated using Spacelab Life Sciences (SLS-1) payloads and certain unique features of this problem are described. The solutions are compared with Miles' results in order to establish trends at over or under prediction.

Thampi, S. K.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Vibration-dissociation coupling in nonequilibrium flows

The purpose of the study is to evaluate all important physical phenomena contributing to the vibration-dissociation problem by developing a numerical technique for the simulation of the vibrational relaxation and dissociation/recombination of N(2) in an isothermal box. A set of coupled master equations representing each vibrational level of N(2) is solved, and both V-V and V-T exchanges between molecules and atoms are included, along with the effects of dissociation and recombustion from/to each level. It is observed that the inverse range parameter has a strong impact on the vibrational exchange rates and relaxation. In a heating case, the lower vibrational levels relax through a series of equilibrium distributions, while in a cooling case, a population inversion is formed in the upper levels. Other cases of heating and cooling will be simulated, and together with this work, used to develop a matrix of nonequilibrium relaxation runs.

Landrum, D. Brian↗

NASA NTRS1991

Onboard navigation rendezvous expert system

The Onboard Navigation rendezvous expert system is designed to aid the ground flight controller in monitoring the shuttle onboard navigation system. The system is designed to keep track of the navigation sensors and relative state vectors. In addition, the system also keeps an event log and fills out forms usually handled by the flight controller. This expert system is one of the few rendezvous specific systems being developed for the Mission Control Center. The expert system has been in development for six years. Through these years the system has seen hardware, software, and personnel changes. Initial development was done by the Information Systems Directorate (ISD) and Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at Johnson Space Center. As of October 1, 1991 the system has been turned over to MOD. The system is completely developed except for some minor adjustments to the user interface. The rule base is in the verification stage with total certification of the system due to be completed by May 1992. Test cases for verification are obtained by saving data used for flight controller integrated simulations. The actual data comes from both the shuttle mission simulator and the Mission Control Center Computer. So far no actual flight data has been available. This paper covers all aspects of the system from the development history to the current hardware, software, and use of the system.

Kocen, Michelle↗

NASA NTRS1994

Autonomous spacecraft executive and its application to rendezvous and docking

Autonomy is needed for future spacecraft to solve the problems of human operator overload and transmission delay. This paper describes the autonomous spacecraft executive for rendezvous and docking. It is an onboard expert system and has decision making capability for mission planning of nominal and contingency cases. The executive has been developed and verified using a hardware motion based simulator.

Komura, Fuminobu↗

NASA NTRS2004

Single-column Model Intercomparison for a Stably Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer

The parameterization of the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer is a difficult issue, which has a large impact on the medium-range weather forecasts and on climate integrations. A non-strongly stratified arctic case is simulated by nineteen single-column turbulence schemes. The statistics from the Large-eddy simulation (LES) intercomparison made for the same case by eight different models are used as a guiding reference. The single-column parameterizations include research schemes and operational schemes from major forecast and climate research centres. First order schemes, a large number of turbulence kinetic energy closures, and other proposals have submitted results. There is a large spread in the results; in general, the operational schemes mix more efficiently than the research ones, and the TKE and other higher order closures give results closer to the LES statistics. The sensitivities of the schemes to the parameters of their turbulence closures are partially explored.

Cuxart, J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Improving Our Understanding of Atlantic Hurricanes Through Knowledge of the Saharan Air Layer: Hope Or Hype?

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air frequently present over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. The nature of its impact on hurricanes remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts. Some investigators have assumed the validity of these proposed negative influences and have frequently used them to explain the failure of individual storms to intensify or to explain the relative inactivity of recent hurricane seasons. Multiple NASA satellite data sets and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to characterize the SAL's properties and evolution in relation to developing hurricanes. The results will shows that neither jet--induced vertical wind shear nor warm SAL air (high stability) produce significant negative impacts on Atlantic storms. Dry air appears to be a key mechanism for SAL influence, but the presence of dry SAL air is not always a good indicator of whether a storm will weaken since many examples of intensifying storms surrounded by such dry air can be found. Idealized simulations will be used to evaluate the role of dry air. Finally, two case studies of supposedly "prime examples" of SAL influence will show that the negative influences of the SAL are perhaps too readily ascribed to individual storms that fail to reach their maximum potential intensity.

Braun, Scott↗