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At least 397 records · Page 22

Convergence and Efficiency of Adaptive Importance Sampling Techniques with Partial Biasing

We propose a new Monte Carlo method to efficiently sample a multimodal distribution (known up to a normalization constant). We consider a generalization of the discrete-time Self Healing Umbrella Sampling method, which can also be seen as a generalization of well-tempered metadynamics. The dynamics is based on an adaptive importance technique. The importance function relies on the weights (namely the relative probabilities) of disjoint sets which form a partition of the space. These weights are unknown but are learnt on the fly yielding an adaptive algorithm. In the context of computational statistical physics, the logarithm of these weights is, up to an additive constant, the free-energy, and the discrete valued function defining the partition is called the collective variable. The algorithm falls into the general class of Wang–Landau type methods, and is a generalization of the original Self Healing Umbrella Sampling method in two ways: (i) the updating strategy leads to a larger penalization strength of already visited sets in order to escape more quickly from metastable states, and (ii) the target distribution is biased using only a fraction of the free-energy, in order to increase the effective sample size and reduce the variance of importance sampling estimators. We prove the convergence of the algorithm and analyze numerically its efficiency on a toy example.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Intrinsic fluctuations of dust grain charge in multi-component plasmas

A master equation is formulated to model the states of the grain charge in a general multi-component plasma, where there are electrons and various kinds of positive or negative ions that are singly or multiply charged. A Fokker-Planck equation is developed from the master equation through the system-size expansion method. The Fokker-Planck equation has a Gaussian solution with a mean and variance governed by two initial-value differential equations involving the rates of the attachment of ions and electrons to the dust grain. Also, a Langevin equation and a discrete stochastic method are developed to model the time variation of the grain charge. Grain charging in a plasma containing electrons, protons, and alpha particles with Maxwellian distributions is considered as an example problem. The Gaussian solution is in very good agreement with the master equation solution numerically obtained for this problem.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An Efficient, Globally Convergent Method for Optimization Under Uncertainty Using Adaptive Model Reduction and Sparse Grids

We present a new approach to efficiently solve optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) with uncertain coefficients. The method leverages two sources of inexactness that trade accuracy for speed: (1) stochastic collocation based on dimension-adaptive sparse grids (SGs), which approximates the stochastic objective function with a limited number of quadrature nodes, and (2) projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs), which generate efficient approximations to PDE solutions. These two sources of inexactness lead to inexact objective function and gradient evaluations, which are managed by a trust-region method that guarantees global convergence by adaptively refining the SG and ROM until a proposed error indicator drops below a tolerance specified by trust-region convergence theory. A key feature of the proposed method is that the error indicator---which accounts for errors incurred by both the SG and ROM---must be only an asymptotic error bound, i.e., a bound that holds up to an arbitrary constant that need not be computed. This allows the approach to be applicable to a wide range of problems, including those where sharp, computable error bounds are not available; this distinguishes the proposed method from previous works. Numerical experiments performed on a model problem from optimal flow control under uncertainty verify global convergence of the method and demonstrate the method's ability to outperform previously proposed alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Normality of Monte Carlo criticality eigenfunction decomposition coefficients

A proof is presented, which shows that after a single Monte Carlo (MC) neutron transport power method iteration without normalization, the coefficients of an eigenfunction decomposition of the fission source density are normally distributed when using analog or implicit capture MC. Using a Pearson correlation coefficient test, the proof is corroborated by results from a uniform slab reactor problem, and those results also suggest that the coefficients are normally distributed with normalization. The proof and numerical test results support the application of earlier work on the convergence of eigenfunctions under stochastic operators. Knowledge of the Gaussian shape of decomposition coefficients allows researchers to determine an appropriate level of confidence in the distribution of fission sites taken from a MC simulation. This knowledge of the shape of the probability distributions of decomposition coefficients encourages the creation of new predictive convergence diagnostics. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Adaptive Sampling-Based Bi-Fidelity Stochastic Trust Region Method for Stochastic Derivative-Free Optimization

Bi-fidelity stochastic optimization has gained increasing attention as an efficient approach to reduce computational costs by leveraging a low-fidelity (LF) model to optimize an expensive high-fidelity (HF) objective. In this paper, we propose ASTRO-BFDF, an adaptive sampling trust-region method specifically designed for unconstrained bi-fidelity stochastic derivative-free optimization problems. In ASTRO-BFDF, the LF function serves two purposes: (i) to identify better iterates for the HF function when the optimization process indicates a high correlation between them and (ii) to reduce the variance of the HF function estimates using bi-fidelity Monte Carlo (BFMC). The algorithm dynamically determines sample sizes while adaptively choosing between crude Monte Carlo and BFMC to balance the trade-off between optimization and sampling errors. We prove that the iterates generated by ASTRO-BFDF converge to a first-order stationary point almost surely. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm through numerical experiments on synthetic benchmarks and simulation optimization problems involving discrete event systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Higher-order time integration of Coulomb collisions in a plasma using Langevin equations

The extension of Langevin-equation Monte-Carlo algorithms for Coulomb collisions from the conventional Euler–Maruyama time integration to the next higher order of accuracy, the Milstein scheme, has been developed, implemented, and tested. This extension proceeds via a formulation of the angular scattering directly as stochastic differential equations in the fixed-frame spherical-coordinate velocity variables. Results from the numerical implementation show the expected improvement [O(Δt) vs. O(Δt{sup 1/2})] in the strong convergence rate both for the speed |v| and angular components of the scattering. An important result is that this improved convergence is achieved for the angular component of the scattering if and only if the “area-integral” terms in the Milstein scheme are included. The resulting Milstein scheme is of value as a step towards algorithms with both improved accuracy and efficiency. These include both algorithms with improved convergence in the averages (weak convergence) and multi-time-level schemes. The latter have been shown to give a greatly reduced cost for a given overall error level when compared with conventional Monte-Carlo schemes, and their performance is improved considerably when the Milstein algorithm is used for the underlying time advance versus the Euler–Maruyama algorithm. A new method for sampling the area integrals is given which is a simplification of an earlier direct method and which retains high accuracy. This method, while being useful in its own right because of its relative simplicity, is also expected to considerably reduce the computational requirements for the direct conditional sampling of the area integrals that is needed for adaptive strong integration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Local Infrasound Variability Related to In Situ Atmospheric Observation

Abstract Local infrasound is widely used to constrain source parameters of near‐surface events (e.g., chemical explosions and volcanic eruptions). While atmospheric conditions are critical to infrasound propagation and source parameter inversion, local atmospheric variability is often ignored by assuming homogeneous atmospheres, and their impact on the source inversion uncertainty has never been accounted for due to the lack of quantitative understanding of infrasound variability. We investigate atmospheric impacts on local infrasound propagation by repeated explosion experiments with a dense acoustic network and in situ atmospheric measurement. We perform full 3‐D waveform simulations with local atmospheric data and numerical weather forecast model to quantify atmosphere‐dependent infrasound variability and address the advantage and restriction of local weather data/numerical weather model for sound propagation simulation. Numerical simulations with stochastic atmosphere models also showed nonnegligible influence of atmospheric heterogeneity on infrasound amplitude, suggesting an important role of local turbulence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stochastic linear multistep methods for the simulation of chemical kinetics

In this paper, we introduce the Stochastic Adams-Bashforth (SAB) and Stochastic Adams-Moulton (SAM) methods as an extension of the τ-leaping framework to past information. Using the Θ-trapezoidal τ-leap method of weak order two as a starting procedure, we show that the k-step SAB method with k ≥ 3 is order three in the mean and correlation, while a predictor-corrector implementation of the SAM method is weak order three in the mean but only order one in the correlation. These convergence results have been derived analytically for linear problems and successfully tested numerically for both linear and non-linear systems. A series of additional examples have been implemented in order to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data-Driven Simulation-Based Planning for Electric Airport Shuttle Systems: A Real-World Case Study

Many airports are adopting battery electric buses in their shuttle fleets due to concerns over air quality and regulations. This study proposes a simulation-based optimization modeling framework to help airport shuttle operators effectively deploy electric buses. We evaluated a planned airport electric shuttle system with an event-driven simulator. Empirical data collected from existing systems were used to drive the simulations. We then proposed a simulation-based optimization model to determine the battery capacity, charging power, and number of chargers so that predefined objective(s) (e.g., minimizing total capital cost, minimizing emissions) are optimized. Compared to existing studies, the primary contribution of the proposed method is that it can model the real-world stochastic nature of operations in an electric bus system with much higher fidelity. To demonstrate the proposed modeling framework, we study a real-world shuttle system at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, and present extensive numerical studies. When considering partial fleet electrification, the model can provide a set of Pareto optimal solutions. When considering full fleet electrification, the optimal solution requires a 50-kWh battery capacity and four 210-kW chargers, resulting in a total capital cost of $26,744,000. The results demonstrate that the proposed modeling framework can effectively optimize the planning of electric airport shuttle systems with partial or full fleet electrification.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Stochastic Optimal Scheduling of Residential Appliances with Renewable Energy Sources

This paper proposes a stochastic, multi-objective optimization model within a Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework, to determine the optimal operational schedules of residential appliances operating in the presence of renewable energy source (RES). The objective function minimizes the weighted sum of discomfort, energy cost, total and peak electricity consumption, and carbon footprint. A heuristic method is developed for combining different objective components. The proposed stochastic model utilizes Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) for representing uncertainties in electricity price, outdoor temperature, RES generation, water usage, and non-controllable loads. The proposed model is solved using a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) solver and numerical results show the validity of the model. Case studies show the benefit of using the proposed optimization model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Model reduction for slow–fast stochastic systems with metastable behaviour

The quasi-steady-state approximation (or stochastic averaging principle) is a useful tool in the study of multiscale stochastic systems, giving a practical method by which to reduce the number of degrees of freedom in a model. The method is extended here to slow–fast systems in which the fast variables exhibit metastable behaviour. The key parameter that determines the form of the reduced model is the ratio of the timescale for the switching of the fast variables between metastable states to the timescale for the evolution of the slow variables. The method is illustrated with two examples: one from biochemistry (a fast-species-mediated chemical switch coupled to a slower varying species), and one from ecology (a predator–prey system). Numerical simulations of each model reduction are compared with those of the full system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

THE PANCHROMATIC HUBBLE ANDROMEDA TREASURY. III. MEASURING AGES AND MASSES OF PARTIALLY RESOLVED STELLAR CLUSTERS

The apparent age and mass of a stellar cluster can be strongly affected by stochastic sampling of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), when inferred from the integrated color of low-mass clusters ({approx}<10{sup 4} M {sub Sun }). We use simulated star clusters to show that these effects are minimized when the brightest, rapidly evolving stars in a cluster can be resolved, and the light of the fainter, more numerous unresolved stars can be analyzed separately. When comparing the light from the less luminous cluster members to models of unresolved light, more accurate age estimates can be obtained than when analyzing the integrated light from the entire cluster under the assumption that the IMF is fully populated. We show the success of this technique first using simulated clusters, and then with a stellar cluster in M31. This method represents one way of accounting for the discrete, stochastic sampling of the stellar IMF in less massive clusters and can be leveraged in studies of clusters throughout the Local Group and other nearby galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Efficient gradient estimation using finite differencing and likelihood ratios for kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

While many optimization and control methods for stochastic processes require gradient information from the process of interest, obtaining gradient information from experiments is prohibitively expensive and time-consuming. As a result, such information is often obtained from stochastic process simulations. Computing gradients efficiently and accurately from stochastic simulations is challenging, especially for simulations involving computationally expensive models with significant inherent noise. In this work, we analyze and characterize the applicability of two gradient estimation methods for kinetic Monte Carlo simulations: finite differencing and likelihood ratio. We developed a systematic method for choosing an optimal perturbation size for finite differencing and discuss, for both methods, important implementation issues such as scaling with respect to the number of elements in the gradient vector. Through a series of numerical experiments, the methods were compared across different time and size regimes to characterize the precision and accuracy associated with each method. We determined that the likelihood ratio method is appropriate for estimating gradients at short (transient) times or for systems with small population sizes, whereas finite differencing is better-suited for gradient estimation at long times (steady state) or for systems with large population sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Constrained approximation of effective generators for multiscale stochastic reaction networks and application to conditioned path sampling

Efficient analysis and simulation of multiscale stochastic systems of chemical kinetics is an ongoing area for research, and is the source of many theoretical and computational challenges. In this paper, we present a significant improvement to the constrained approach, which is a method for computing effective dynamics of slowly changing quantities in these systems, but which does not rely on the quasi-steady-state assumption (QSSA). The QSSA can cause errors in the estimation of effective dynamics for systems where the difference in timescales between the “fast” and “slow” variables is not so pronounced. This new application of the constrained approach allows us to compute the effective generator of the slow variables, without the need for expensive stochastic simulations. This is achieved by finding the null space of the generator of the constrained system. For complex systems where this is not possible, or where the constrained subsystem is itself multiscale, the constrained approach can then be applied iteratively. This results in breaking the problem down into finding the solutions to many small eigenvalue problems, which can be efficiently solved using standard methods. Since this methodology does not rely on the quasi steady-state assumption, the effective dynamics that are approximated are highly accurate, and in the case of systems with only monomolecular reactions, are exact. We will demonstrate this with some numerics, and also use the effective generators to sample paths of the slow variables which are conditioned on their endpoints, a task which would be computationally intractable for the generator of the full system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Random coordinate descent: A simple alternative for optimizing parameterized quantum circuits

Variational quantum algorithms rely on the optimization of parameterized quantum circuits in noisy settings. The commonly used back-propagation procedure in classical machine learning is not directly applicable in this setting due to the collapse of quantum states after measurements. Thus, gradient estimations constitute a significant overhead in a gradient-based optimization of such quantum circuits. This paper introduces a random coordinate descent algorithm as a practical and easy-to-implement alternative to the full gradient descent algorithm. This algorithm only requires one partial derivative at each iteration. Motivated by the behavior of measurement noise in the practical optimization of parameterized quantum circuits, this paper presents an optimization problem setting that is amenable to analysis. Under this setting, the random coordinate descent algorithm exhibits the same level of stochastic stability as the full gradient approach, making it as resilient to noise. The complexity of the random coordinate descent method is generally no worse than that of the gradient descent and can be much better for various quantum optimization problems with anisotropic Lipschitz constants. Theoretical analysis and extensive numerical experiments validate our findings. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Ding, Zhiyan (ORCID:000000018863403X)↗

Stochastic Modeling in a Multimaterial Continuum Mixture Shock Physics Code

Stochastic modelling approaches are presented to capture random effects at multiple time and length scales. Random processes that occur at the microscale produce nondeterministic effects at the macroscale. Here we present three stochastic modeling approaches that describe random processes at microscopic length scales and map these processes to the macroscopic length scale. The first stochastic modeling approach is based upon a particle based numerical technique to solve a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) using an arbitrary diffusion process to capture random processes at the microstructural level. The second approach prescribes a Probability Density Function (PDF) for the drift and diffusion of the random variable derived using the forward and backward Kolmogorov equations. This method requires mean and drift evolution PDF transport equations. The third approach is the coupling of multiple random variables which are dependent on each other. The relationship of the PDFs and a coupling function, known as a copula, produces a Joint Probability Density Function (JPDF). These stochastic modeling approaches are implemented into a Multiple Component (MC) shock physics computational code and used to model statistical fracture and reactive flow applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Intelligent load pattern modeling and denoising using improved variational mode decomposition for various calendar periods

This paper proposes a novel approach to identify the load patterns considering calendar impact and denoising process, which advances the state of art of load identification and load forecasting to a more flexible and adaptive extent by revealing the correlation between load profile and the substantial influence factors. With the rapid development and the promising application of energy intemet and grid modernization, the accurate load modeling and forecasting especially by load pattern modeling (LPM) have become more and more critical to observe and estimate load profile so as to optimize the operation efficiency of the power grid. Traditional methods mostly focus on the static LPM itself which are unable to account the non-linear and highly dynamic load fluctuations in order to balance the demand of the power grid during various calendar period (VCP) scheduling. In this paper, a load pattern modeling method for power grid considering the impact of typical calendar effects is proposed using a combination of improved variational mode decomposition (IVMD) and deep belief network (DBN) algorithm. Firstly, an index of load curve curvature (LCC) is proposed to improve the selection of value K in the conventional VMD algorithm. The value K of the intrinsic modality is determined by adopting LCC to better quantify the average instantaneous frequency of the modal decomposition of the VMD and to reduce the elevated stochasticity of k. Secondly, an optimization formulation is developed based on adaptive segmented loop decomposition of the typical correlation coefficient to suppress the edge effect in VMD decomposition, which would enable the reconstructed curve to incorporate the variabilities from the initial data. Finally, the IVMD and DBN algorithms are jointly implemented to optimize the accuracy of VCP load pattern modeling curve regression. Numerical examples have been performed with the results proving that the proposed method significantly outperforms the state-of-art in reducing the modeling error of VCP load curve, improving the overall forecasting accuracy, and reducing load dispatching cost.

deep belief network↗

Minimal multi-element stochastic collocation for uncertainty quantification of discontinuous functions

We propose a multi-element stochastic collocation method that can be applied in high-dimensional parameter space for functions with discontinuities lying along manifolds of general geometries. The key feature of the method is that the parameter space is decomposed into multiple elements defined by the discontinuities and thus only the minimal number of elements are utilized. On each of the resulting elements the function is smooth and can be approximated using high-order methods with fast convergence properties. The decomposition strategy is in direct contrast to the traditional multi-element approaches which define the sub-domains by repeated splitting of the axes in the parameter space. Such methods are more prone to the curse-of-dimensionality because of the fast growth of the number of elements caused by the axis based splitting. The present method is a two-step approach. Firstly a discontinuity detector is used to partition parameter space into disjoint elements in each of which the function is smooth. The detector uses an efficient combination of the high-order polynomial annihilation technique along with adaptive sparse grids, and this allows resolution of general discontinuities with a smaller number of points when the discontinuity manifold is low-dimensional. After partitioning, an adaptive technique based on the least orthogonal interpolant is used to construct a generalized Polynomial Chaos surrogate on each element. The adaptive technique reuses all information from the partitioning and is variance-suppressing. We present numerous numerical examples that illustrate the accuracy, efficiency, and generality of the method. When compared against standard locally-adaptive sparse grid methods, the present method uses many fewer number of collocation samples and is more accurate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗