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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Your Utility Bills: Electricity

Electricity bills can often be difficult to decipher. Depending in the electricity provider, bills can be very long and detailed or extremely short, with only a few totals listed. Different charges can appear each month with no apparent explanation of how or why they are calculated. Learning how to read electricity bills and understand why different charges are assessed is key to maximizing cost savings through energy efficiency. This document provides guidance on the basics of understanding electricity bills and covers electricity generation, rate structures, usage trends, and savings opportunities. The information in this guide can be used to help companies collect and report their energy efficiency improvements to the DOE Better Plants Program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Final Report for Tech-X Corporations’s contribution to Enhancing Understanding of High Energy Density Plasmas from Wire Array and Solid Liner Implosions Using Fluid Modeling with Kinetic Closures

Recent results from experiments and simulation of magnetically driven pulsed power liners have explored the role of the early-time electrothermal instability in the evolution of the magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability. Our focus will be on understanding the development of such instabilities and the potential stabilization mechanisms via electron thermal conduction, viscosity, and large magnetic fields which we expect could play a significant role in supporting the success of the MagLIF program. Experiments have shown that studies of high-energy density plasmas from wire-array implosions require physics modeling that goes well beyond simple models such as ideal magnetohydrodynamics. The goal of this work is to provide increased understanding of these experiments by employing simulations with a multi-fluid extended-MHD model which uses kinetic closures for thermal conduction, resistivity and viscosity. We will use codes easily available to the wider research community, including university students, with a secondary goal of providing the community with well-benchmarked tools capable of advanced modeling of high-energy-density plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Marine Shallow Cloud Adjustments to the Presence of Shortwave-Absorbing Aerosols: Advancing Understanding Through a Combined Analysis of Lasic Datasets and Process Modeling (Final Report)

This is a final report for this award, whose purpose was to support the analysis of data emanating from the LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interaction with Clouds) campaign. (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) is a strategy to improve our understanding of aged carbonaceous aerosol, its seasonal evolution, and the mechanisms by which clouds adjust to the presence of the aerosol. The observational strategy centers on deploying the AMF1 cloud, aerosol, and atmospheric profiling instrumentation to Ascension Island, located within the trade-wind shallow cumulus regime (14.50W, 80S) 3000 km offshore of continental Africa. The location is within the latitude zone of the maximum outflow of aerosol, with the deepening boundary layer known to entrain free-tropospheric smoke. The primary activities for LASIC are: 1) to improve current knowledge on aged biomass burning aerosol and its radiative properties as a function of the seasonal cycle; 2) to use surface-based remote sensing to sensitively interrogate the atmosphere for the relative vertical location of aerosol and clouds; 3) to improve our understanding of the cloud adjustments to the presence of shortwave-absorbing aerosol within the vertical column, both through aerosol-radiation and through aerosol-cloud interactions; 4) to aid low cloud parameterization efforts for climate models. This award serves to further these activities and includes a sub-award to Dr. Pablo Saide at UCLA for activities 3) and 4).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Origin of the Hadron Mass within the Standard Model

Understanding the origin of the hadron mass, which constitutes 99% of our visible universe, is one of the central goals of nuclear physics. Although the Higgs mechanism provides mass for the fundamental building blocks of matter, it can only contribute less than 2% of the proton mass. The vast majority of the proton mass is believed to come from the strong force that tightly binds quarks and gluons (collectively called partons) together as described by Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). The mass that emerges as a consequence of the strong interactions within QCD is commonly denoted as Emergent Hadronic Mass (EHM). Understanding how the nucleon mass emerges in QCD is a prerequisite to an explanation of how the Universe came into being, therefore it is of utmost importance and one of the key questions to be addressed by the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). When it comes to light mesons, particularly pions, the mass decomposition is drastically different. Since the pion is naturally massless in the chiral limit, the majority of its observed mass needs to come from other mechanisms within QCD. Any successful explanation for the EHM needs to be able to reconcile both the heavy proton mass and the very light pion mass (~15% of proton mass) simultaneously. The EHM theories have direct measurable implications on the description of the internal structure of the hadron, i.e., how the partons distribute inside the hadron. Precise measurement of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) will provide necessary experimental verifications and constraints of potential EHM mechanisms. We propose to carry out a comprehensive study of the poorly known pion PDFs at the AMBER experiment at CERN. The measurement will provide vital input to constrain the global analysis of the pion PDFs, which are still based on limited data obtained more than 30 years ago. The proposed pion measurement is the only direct measurement achievable within this decade, which could lead to a future major meson structure program parallel to the EIC’s proton structure measurement.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Path Toward Understanding the Performance Capabilities of SmartNIC Devices [Slides]

SmartNICs, accelerator devices integrated with a network, have conventionally been utilized to offload low-level networking functionality. However, newer SmartNIC variants, which incorporate a system-on-chip (SoC) with traditional designs, are challenging this precedent. Leveraging significantly augmented resources, these new devices offer increased versatility and the potential to more effectively complement a given architecture’s CPU. Naturally, there is performance overhead associated with offloading tasks from a host CPU to a SmartNIC. As SmartNICs become more versatile and are used for a wider range of computational tasks, it is critical to understand how well the SmartNICs perform those respective tasks in order to determine whether the cost of offloading is worthwhile. In this work, we lay out a path to understand the important question of when and when not to offload to SmartNIC devices by way of a series of microbenchmarks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining Physical Understanding of Aerosol Loading, Biogeochemistry, and Snowmelt Hydrology from Hillslope to Watershed Scale in the East River Scientific Focus Area

The mountain snowpack is a critical component of regional hydrology, ecology, biogeochemistry, and climate in the Western US. This project leveraged the East River Scientific Focus Area (SFA), as an outdoor laboratory to address a significant gap in our understanding of the mountain snowpack; namely, how atmospheric constituent deposition on snowpack influences snow energy balance and nutrient/chemical cycling, and how snowmelt timing and intensity exerts controls on emergent biogeochemical and ecohydrologic behavior. This aligned with East River SFA goals to integrate landscape scale measurements and physical based modeling tools to improve understanding of controls on runoff production, ecohydrology, biogeochemical cycling, and land surface energy partitioning in high mountain watersheds. The project included observations of snowpack at multiple scales, measurements of snow and deposited aerosols properties, in situ time series of surface energy balance, and spatially distributed, process-based snowmelt modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Capturing Carbonation: Understanding Kinetic Complexities through a New Era of Electron Microscopy

Cryogenic plasma focused ion beam (PFIB) electron microscopy analysis is applied to visualizing ex situ (surface industrial) and in situ (subsurface geologic) carbonation products, to advance understanding of carbonation kinetics. Ex situ carbonation is investigated using NIST fly ash standard #2689 exposed to aqueous sodium bicarbonate solutions for brief periods of time. In situ carbonation pathways are investigated using volcanic flood basalt samples from Schaef et al. (2010) exposed to aqueous CO 2 solutions by them. The fly ash reaction products at room temperature show small amounts of incipient carbonation, with calcite apparently forming via surface nucleation. Reaction products at 75° C show beginning stages of an iron carbonate phase, e.g., siderite or ankerite, common phases in subsurface carbon sequestration environments. This may suggest an alternative to calcite in carbonation low calcium-bearing fly ashes. Flood basalt carbonation reactions show distinct zonation with high calcium and calcium-magnesium bearing zones alternating with high iron-bearing zones. The calcium-magnesium zones are notable with occurrence of localized pore space. Oscillatory zoning in carbonate minerals is distinctly associated with far-from-equilibrium conditions where local chemical environments fluctuate via a coupling of reaction with transport. The high porosity zones may reflect a precursor phase (e.g., aragonite) with higher molar volume that then “ripens” to the high-Mg calcite phase-plus-porosity. These observations reveal that carbonation can proceed with evolving local chemical environments, formation and disappearance of metastable phases, and evolving reactive surface areas. Together this work shows that future application of cryo-PFIB in carbonation studies would provide advanced understanding of kinetic mechanisms for optimizing industrial-scale and commercial-scale applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Collaborative Research: Understanding Nanoparticle-Plasma Interactions in Dusty Non-Thermal Plasmas by Nanoparticle Probes and Online Aerosol Characterization

Research Objectives The goal of this research project is to understand the nature of charge interactions between plasmas and aerosol particles. Specifically, the project has the following objectives: 1) Study the effect of solid nanoparticles on properties of an atmospheric pressure plasma. 2) Study the influence of plasma density on the final charge of nanoparticles. 3) Develop a theoretical understanding of charge decay and charge dynamics in the spatial afterglow in support of experimental observations of the final charge of nanoparticles exiting a plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Physics Representation of Deep Learning Models in Environmental Applications

Deep learning (DL) models have been popular in earth and environmental modeling and analysis, which exhibit huge potential in capturing and reconstructing the non-linearity of relevant environmental processes. They are extensively used as analytical tools or emulators for multiple domains (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and biogeochemistry). Despite their success, their internal working mechanism remains largely unknown. Such a lack of knowledge hinders the identification of physically consistent models that are fully adaptive to non-stationary climate, as well as the development of physics-informed machine learning such as physics-informed neural network (PINN). To establish preliminary knowledge and framework of such physics representation evaluation, this project focuses on an improved understanding of DL models in the environmental applications. DL models are increasingly applied to environmental modeling and prediction. However, they have been evaluated mostly from a performance perspective, and there is a gap in understanding how they represent the known physics internally. Such knowledge is especially critical when applying DL models under climate change conditions, where new inputs are likely outside the ranges of the training datasets. In this project, we reveal how the known physical processes are represented within DL models from both statistical and mechanistic perspectives. Leveraging the traditional model evaluations that focus more on the accuracies of predictions, we establish a framework that examines both the accuracy and physics representation of DL models. This analysis framework can identify DL models that make the correct predictions based on correct physics, thus enhancing the existing explainable artificial intelligence (explainable-AI) portfolio. It lays a foundation for developing novel metrics to evaluate the emerging DL models in environmental applications. This knowledge also informs the development of physics-informed DL models by revealing the direct connections between the known physical processes and specific model components or structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the Structure and Dynamics of Conjugated Polymers by Advancing Deuteration Chemistry and Neutron Scattering (Final Report)

The overarching goal of the proposed work was to set up a partnership between the University of Southern Mississippi (USM) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop novel approaches to measure the backbone rigidity of conjugated polymers (CPs) and understand the critical role of sidechains on the backbone conformation and the materials macroscopic property. The backbone rigidity greatly influences the electronic properties of CPs, which ultimately determines the functionality and performance of these materials. Improvements in the electronic properties of CPs would allow for enhanced charge transport in semiconductor devices, improved photovoltaic performance, recycling of waste heat in thermoelectrics, and discovery of new phenomena that will enable the next generation of energy technologies. Although significant progress has been made to optimize the optical and electronic properties of CPs, largely through Edisonian methodologies, it remains a challenge to experimentally characterize conjugated backbone conformation (chain rigidity, torsion, planarity, and short-range order) and relate these to the fundamental optical and electronic properties (electronic coupling, charge transport, etc.). This has left fundamental gaps in our knowledge of the most basic structure/property relationships within these systems, precluded the study of fundamental physical phenomena, and constrained the design and realization of new electronic and device functionalities. Thus, the major goal of this work is to use novel deuteration methodologies via systematic synthetic approaches, and neutron scattering techniques to comprehensively characterize the structural and dynamic properties of CPs in contrast-matching solvents. Our work would, for the first time, elucidate the relationship between backbone rigidity and macroscopic properties. They will also allow a rational formulation of design principles for next-generation CPs that are resilient to disorder through precise control of the delocalized electrons along the polymer backbone. Overall, this project will advance our understanding of the structure, dynamics, and fundamental physics of these materials, which is crucial for enabling the prediction, design, control, and manipulation of current and emerging material electronic properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fundamental Understanding of Dynamic Interfacial Phenomena in Solid State Batteries

Solid-state batteries (SSBs) are considered as one of the most promising battery technologies for resolving the intrinsic limitations of current lithium-ion batteries, such as safety and insufficient energy density. However, the degradation associated with interfaces in SSBs is still a critical issue leading to short cycle life. To get fundamental understanding of the failure mechanism of the interfaces, we first developed a comprehensive set of in situ diagnostic techniques combined with atomic/continuum modeling schemes to investigate and understand the coupled mechanical/chemical degradation associated with dynamic interfacial phenomena in SSBs. Specifically, we focused on in situ observations and characterizations of lithium plating-stripping processes, lithium dendrite formation, interphase formation, and the induced interfacial stresses, as well as the mechanical and electrochemical properties of interfaces and interphases. The final project report first gives an overview of the project background, objectives, technical approaches, and final deliverables for all the budget periods; then follows with a summary on main accomplishments based on main tasks. We particularly would like to highlight some capabilities developed from this project which can also be implemented to our advanced battery development.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the Mechanism of Light and Elevated Temperature Induced Degradation of p-type Silicon Solar Cells (Final Report)

Light- and elevated-temperature-induced degradation (LeTID) was first discovered in multicrystalline Si (mc-Si) solar cells and was initially attributed to metal impurities. Later, LeTID was reported in Czochralski (Cz) and float-zone (FZ) Si, and is considered as an important efficiency loss mechanism in p-type passivated emitter rear contact (p-PERC) Cz Si solar cells. LeTID causes ~10% relative and permeant efficiency losses in these cells in warmer climate regions where the module temperature is > 50 °C. Unlike light-induced degradation (LID), which is also observed in p-PERC cells, LeTID is slower and takes weeks to months in the field to saturate. Another difference compared to LID is that regeneration in LeTID proceeds very slowly, and field regeneration could take > 25 years — essentially the life of the module. Unlike B-O defects that are responsible for LID, neither B nor O impurities are directly involved in LeTID. LeTID appears to be unique to p-type Si, and is also observed in Ga-doped Si. Currently, most experimental evidence relates LeTID to the injection of hydrogen present in the dielectric surface passivation layers, such as SiN x and Al 2 O 3 , into the monocrystalline Si (c-Si) bulk during the fast-firing step. The involvement of hydrogen is further strengthened by controlled studies that show that increasing the amount of hydrogen in the dielectric during fast-firing increases the degree of LeTID. Similar to LID, a regeneration process has been discovered for LeTID. Regeneration of LeTID defects occurs when samples are exposed to 2–4 Suns illumination at elevated temperatures of 140–220 °C for 2–15 hr. Given the slower kinetics of LeTID and sample regeneration compared to LID, this poses a challenge for the manufacturing and field reliability of p-PERC cells, which will be the leading photovoltaic technologies over the next decade. Therefore, there is a need to understand LeTID and develop strategies to mitigate this effect. The defect responsible for LeTID has been extensively studied with over 100 publications, but direct spectroscopic evidence of this defect’s structure is lacking. Without an atomistic understanding of the LeTID defect, it is difficult to assess the long-term efficacy of the current industrial mitigation strategies. This, in turn, has implications on energy production for tens of gigawatts of these cells that will be deployed yearly worldwide. Using electron paramagnetic resonance, we identified a defect associated with LeTID with a g-value of 2.006, which we attribute to an Si dangling bond in an extended defect such as a vacancy agglomerate with H possibly within or in close vicinity. These vacancy agglomerates are likely created during the firing process, during which time H atoms are also injected into the bulk from the hydrogenated SiN x dielectric layer. Our atomistic-level insight shows that the LeTID defect can be mitigated by targeted intrinsic defect engineering of the c-Si material through a slower pull rate of the Cz ingot or 1000 °C oxygen ambient processing of the Si wafer to reduce the vacancy concentration. This project was a collaborative effort between the Colorado School of Mines and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building a Framework to Understand Transition Metals' Behavior in Euxinic Conditions (Final Technical Report)

This project focuses first and foremost on metal sulfide geochemistry and mineralogy as controlled by a complex matrix of environmental factors. The principal investigator’s group aim to illuminate the metal-sulfide reaction mechanisms, rates, and pathways through systematic experimentation and data collection and analyzing the relationships between the characteristics of the produced metal sulfide solid-phase/aqueous complexes and the environmental factors. This understanding is essential for obtaining a full picture of the complex cycling patterns of single or multi metal species in sulfidic environments ranging from deep-see basins, hydrothermal vents, inland seas, terrestrial water bodies, to engineered remediation systems. The specific goal of this past project was to illuminate the reaction mechanisms and kinetics of metal anions and sulfide in mixed metal cation-metal anion-sulfide systems under various aqueous conditions (which resembled a range of naturally occurring euxinic settings). For the period of this contract, we investigated the molybdenum-iron-sulfide system, with an emphasis on the conditions that caused solid phase formation. We focused on quantifying the mobility/sequestration of molybdenum under each experimental condition and identified the changes of valence states for each involved element (i.e., Mo, Fe, and S) in the precipitate. We also proposed pathways for the electron transfer that occurred in aqueous chemistry. The major analytical tools used for this study include UV-visible light spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and synchrotron-based X-ray absorption spectroscopy (access gained through facility proposals to the Canadian Light Source). The biggest finding of this project was that besides pH, the iron-sulfur chemistry has a dominant control of the thiolation kinetics and subsequent reduction of Mo(VI), which are likely prerequisites of molybdenum sequestration in anoxic conditions. The results have been written up as manuscript by the end of this project (see Phillips et al.). The experimental results of this project may be critical for advancing our understanding of (1) basic chemistry involving transition metals and reduced sulfur species, (2) the validity of certain geochemical proxies, and (3) the stability and evolution of euxinic geochemical environments. It is noted that the basic results obtained through this project also have implications for Mo-S cluster-based catalyst development in inorganic chemistry and materials sciences.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Collaborative Research: Understanding air‐sea feedbacks to the MJO through process evaluation of observations and E3SM experiments (Final Technical Report)

This project explored the role of tropical oceans in regulating cloud populations within the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)–a large-scale tropical weather disturbance that influences extreme weather events across the globe by affecting the position of the jet stream and patterns of moisture transport. Our project sought to 1) document ocean feedback strength to the MJO in climate models, 2) understand how air-sea interactions affect the intensity, organization, and propagation of MJO convection, 3) utilize existing observations to identify sources of model bias for tropical air-sea interactions, and 4) better understand the effects of slow and fast ocean variability on MJO cloudiness. We found that transfers of heat and moisture across the air-sea interface (i.e., surface fluxes) in most climate models are over-supportive in maintaining MJO convection and under-supportive in propagating MJO convection. This can lead to misrepresentations in the frequency of extreme weather events across the globe through erroneous MJO feedbacks to jet stream position and moisture transport. Furthermore, using observations collected by ocean moorings across the tropical oceans, we showed that most models greatly overestimate surface evaporation in the subtropics, and that this bias is likely one contributor to a pervasive bias among climate models in their ability to simulate the mean state of rainfall over the tropical oceans (i.e., the “double ITCZ bias”). Replacing the default surface flux algorithm in two climate models with a state-of-the-art surface flux algorithm modestly reduced the double ITCZ bias in those models. Our work produced two model diagnostics packages that are now publicly available through DOE and NOAA model diagnostics archives. The first, the Analysis of Scales of Precipitation (ASoP) diagnoses scales of precipitation variability across space and time, with temporal resolution as fine as the model integration timestep. The second, the air-sea flux diagnostic diagnoses model surface fluxes and allows direct comparison of model fluxes to observations without having to recompute fluxes using model output and a state-of-the-art flux algorithm. These diagnostics, which were developed using climate models, can be readily applied to regional and global forecast model output to improve forecasts for the benefit of society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Water Controls on Shale Gas/Oil Mobilization into Fractures (FY 2019-2021(FY2022, No Cost Extension), Final Report)

The large volumes of injected and produced water, and costs associated with both hydraulic fracturing fluids and produced water treatment motivate development of hydraulic fracturing strategies that use water more efficiently. The overall objective of this project is to improve understanding on how water is distributed within unconventional shales during and after hydraulic fracturing in order to provide a more rational basis for reservoir stimulation strategies that increase hydrocarbon recovery per unit of water used. The strong capillary imbibition of water into shale matrix pores and immiscibility with hydrocarbons makes it highly desirable to reduce water use during reservoir development. Given the importance, and competing influences of capillarity and gravity in controlling water in fractured porous media, this project also seeks to understand how these factors interact to obstruct or allow gas flow.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing and Understanding the Spatial and Energy Distributions of Plasmonic Hot Carriers via Single-Molecule Quantum Transport

The generation of hot carriers in plasmonic nanostructures offers new transformative opportunities for a range of applications, including solar energy harvesting, photochemistry, and photodetection. To better understand such phenomena, this project aims to develop an experimental approach to study and understand hot carrier distributions in photoexcited plasmonic nanostructures. The developed experimental approach, combining scanning probe-based single-molecule quantum transport measurements with plasmonic excitation methods, leverages nanoscopic single molecules as quantum energy filters to selectively access hot carriers in a variety of plasmonic nanostructures. This report summarizes the key outcomes, impacts, and lessons learned in the first two years of the project. Over the past two years, important progress was made in achieving the project's goals, including the development of the scanning probe-based experimental platform, fabrication of plasmonic nanostructures, and design and synthesis of the desired molecular candidates. Insights from this research will pave the path toward the development of technologies that will improve the way we harvest solar energy and drive chemical reactions and ultimately help transition the U.S. to a clean and sustainable society.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans

This guide is for public utility commission staff, state energy office staff, and other stakeholders who review model results for utility integrated resource plans (IRPs). It builds on the "Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans," and delves into more advanced topics that were not included or not fully covered in the beginner's guide. The topics included here are evolving and may or may not be important to the resource plan you are evaluating. Due to limitations in resources, it's also not possible to give the highest level of detail or attention to every topic within a plan. An important part of planning for an uncertain future involves deciding which topics deserve the most focus and resources. It's all about prioritizing efforts where they will have the most impact or be most beneficial despite uncertainties ahead. As with the beginner's guide, we intend for this guide to help improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening understanding and dialogue between electricity system planners and relevant stakeholders. The following information is designed to allow you to better engage in the planning process by evaluating results, asking questions, and thinking through what is most important. We allocate significant discussion in the guide to electricity demand evolution, demand-side resources, and resource adequacy. These topics have garnered increasing attention, hence their prominence in this guide. Other topics are also presented, but their incorporation into the planning process might vary based on interest and relevance. The absence of certain topics doesn't diminish their importance; rather, it reflects the reality that in planning, trade-offs necessitate prioritizing certain aspects over others.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗