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DOE OSTI2025

Time correlations from steady-state expectation values

Recovering properties of correlation functions is typically challenging. On one hand, experimentally, it requires measurements with a temporal resolution finer than the system's dynamics. On the other hand, analytical or numerical analysis requires solving the system evolution. Here, we use recent results of quantum metrology with continuous measurements to derive general lower bounds on the relaxation and second-order correlation times that are both easy to calculate and measure. These bounds are based solely on steady-state expectation values and their derivatives with respect to a control parameter, and can be readily extended to the autocorrelation of arbitrary observables. We validate our method on two examples of critical quantum systems: a critical driven-dissipative resonator, where the bound matches analytical results for the dynamics, and the infinite-range Ising model, where only the steady state is solvable and thus the bound provides information beyond the reach of existing analytical approaches. Our results can be applied to experimentally characterize ultrafast systems, and to theoretically analyze many-body models with dynamics that are analytically or numerically hard.

Górecki, Wojciech [INFN, Pavia]↗

DOE OSTI2025

NDMAS

Overview of Current ART-GCR Data: Fuel Fabrication, Irradiation Monitoring (Fuel & Graphite – near real-time for HDG-1), Post-Irradiation Examination (Fuel & Graphite), Graphite Characterization (Baseline and Irradiated), High Temperature Metals Mechanical Tests, Design, Methods, and Validation Data, Japan Atomic Energy Agency’s High Temperature Test Reactor (HTTR), Argonne National Laboratory’s Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF), Oregon State University’s High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF), Generation IV International VHTR Materials Handbook, Additional related data, and Advanced Test Reactor operations (near real-time).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

MAS-CCD: New technique for measuring low-level charge content based on the multiple amplifier architecture

Low-noise detectors are a key technology for the next generation of astronomical instruments aimed at spectroscopy of faint objects and the search for exoplanets. In this context, the multiple-amplifier sensing charge-coupled device (MAS-CCD) emerges as a promising technology for future scientific instruments. A critical parameter affecting the performance of these devices is spurious charge, produced by the clocking of the gates. Its measurement is typically challenging with existing methods. In practice, the optimization of this parameter often relies on empirical procedures that require significant time and careful consideration of the trade-off with full-well capacity. In this work, we present a new technique to estimate spurious charge based on covariance analysis of the output amplifiers of the MAS-CCD, which measures the same charge packet in different amplifiers at different times. The method enables fast and precise measurements of spurious charge under operating conditions where conventional approaches are difficult to apply. We develop the theoretical framework of the method and validate the model through simulations. The results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach and suggest that it could serve as a basis for reliable large-scale characterization of sensor performance.

Gamero, Miqueas E. [Buenos Aires, CONICET; Fermila↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Flexibility Envelopes for Residential Customers From Utility Smart Meter Data: Preprint

Demand response from residential customers has significant potential to support power system operations, but accurate flexibility estimation is challenging due to the limited resolution of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Most utility AMI measurements are recorded at hourly intervals, with only a small portion at higher resolutions, and even fewer households have appliance-level energy usage data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a two-stage long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for estimating household flexibility envelopes from low-resolution AMI data. In the first stage, the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load and non-HVAC loads are estimated by using a model trained on a small set of households with appliance-level profiles. These estimated data are then used to compute the upper- and lower-flexibility bounds, which are subsequently down-sampled to lower-resolution data. In the second stage, these flexibility bounds serve as training inputs for another LSTM model, enabling direct prediction of flexibility envelopes for households with only hourly AMI data. This method is validated using Pecan Street data from two different areas, and the results demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Split Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) System Building Energy Simulations Using Performance Maps

Multi-split variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems are highly energy-efficient HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) technologies that connect a single outdoor unit to multiple independent indoor terminal units using a common refrigerant circuit and a variable-speed compressor. Building energy simulations that incorporate VRF systems help model their unique operational characteristics and predict energy consumption in specific building designs. Traditionally, EnergyPlus models these systems by employing multiple sets of performance curves to characterize both individual terminal units and the outdoor unit. However, producing these curves is labor intensive and error prone, and they often do not capture all the key input and output variables. This paper introduces a novel approach that uses multi-dimensional performance maps to model VRF systems in building environments for space cooling. In this approach, performance maps are developed at the component level—separately for the outdoor unit and for each indoor terminal. The new modeling method is validated within EnergyPlus via a Python plug-in that contains a simple solver loop to coordinate the component-level, indoor, and outdoor unit maps. Furthermore, because performance maps can span more variables than traditional performance curves, they offer the opportunity to implement advanced controls, such as enhanced dehumidification and compressor modulation. A VRF air conditioner’s hardware system was modeled using the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model, which was automated to produce extensive performance maps for both the indoor and outdoor units.

Shen, Bo [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000336600393)↗

DOE OSTI2026

SPT-3G D1: Foreground-Robust Lensing Templates for Primordial Gravitational Wave Searches

Gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) generates B-mode polarization that acts as a source of contamination to searches for B modes generated by primordial gravitational waves (PGWs). The strongest constraint on PGW B modes is already significantly limited by lensing B modes, as shown in the most recent BICEP result. In this work, we present CMB lensing B-mode templates constructed using SPT-3G and Planck data, which characterize the lensing B modes and can be used to improve PGW B-mode searches. We use SPT-3G data from the 2019 and 2020 observing seasons for the E modes and the CMB-reconstructed lensing potential, and a cosmic infrared background (CIB) map from Planck as an external lensing tracer. To test for extragalactic foreground biases in the lensing template, we consider CMB lensing reconstruction variants with different levels of foreground immunity: the standard and profile-hardened global minimum variance (GMV) quadratic estimators, and a polarization-only quadratic estimator. We validate the template construction using Gaussian simulations and Agora simulations with realistic non-Gaussian foregrounds. From simulations, we find that foreground-induced biases are strongly suppressed for the template constructed with the profile-hardened GMV + CIB tracer, with residual bias below 10% of the statistical uncertainty on the template power spectrum. Data difference tests on this template similarly show no evidence for significant foreground contamination. This foreground-immune lensing template achieves delensed residual BB power of $A_{\rm lens}^{\rm res} \simeq 0.48$ averaged over $20 \leq \ell \leq 200$, the highest delensing efficiency lensing template to date. These results demonstrate and validate a method to construct foreground-robust lensing templates which will be used in upcoming delensed PGW B-mode analyses of BICEP data.

Nakato, Y. [Stanford U.]↗

DOE OSTI2023

A novel data gaps filling method for solar PV output forecasting

This study proposes a modified gaps filling method, expanding the column mean imputation method and evaluated using randomly generated missing values comprising 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% of the original data on power output. The XGBoost algorithm was implemented as a forecasting model using the original and processed datasets and two sources of solar radiation data, namely, Shortwave Radiation (SWR) from Advanced Himawari Imager 8 (AHI-8) and Surface Solar Radiation Downward (SSRD) from ERA5 global reanalysis data. Further, the accuracy of the two sets of forecasted power output was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results show that by applying the proposed gap filling method and using SWR in forecasting solar photovoltaic (PV) output, the improvement in the RMSE and MAE values range from 12.52% to 24.30% and from 21.10% to 31.31%, respectively. Meanwhile, using SSRD, the improvement in the RMSE values range from 14.01% to 28.54% and MAE values from 22.39% to 35.53%. To further evaluate the accuracy of the proposed gap-filling method, the proposed method could be validated using different datasets and other forecasting methods. Future studies could also consider applying the said method to datasets with data gaps higher than 20%.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven model validation for neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements

Neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements are needed to improve interaction modeling to meet the precision needs of neutrino experiments in efforts to measure oscillation parameters and search for physics beyond the Standard Model. We review the difficulties associated with modeling neutrino-nucleus interactions that lead to a dependence on event generators in oscillation analyses and cross section measurements alike. We then describe data-driven model validation techniques intended to address this model dependence. The method relies on utilizing various goodness-of-fit tests and the correlations between different observables and channels to probe the model for defects in the phase space relevant for the desired analysis. These techniques shed light on relevant mismodeling, allowing it to be detected before it begins to bias the cross section results. We compare more commonly used model validation methods which directly validate the model against alternative ones to these data-driven techniques and show their efficacy with fake data studies. These studies demonstrate that employing data-driven model validation in cross section measurements represents a reliable strategy to produce robust results that will stimulate the desired improvements to interaction modeling.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven model validation for neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Framework For Spatial Agricultural Crop Yield Prediction Model Development

This framework was developed to provide data preprocessing for spatiotemporal agricultural yield data and remote sensing data for modelling using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict subfield crop yield estimates. The software includes methods to train, validate, and test ANN models. It also include methods to infer on new remote sensing data.

Griffel, LloydM.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Determination of Seven Organic Impurities in FD&C Yellow No. 6 by Ultra-High-Performance Liquid Chromatography

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) batch certifies FD&C Yellow No. 6 (Y6) to ensure that the color additive meets requirements published in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), including specifications for seven organic manufacturing impurities consisting of two intermediates, a reaction by-product, an impurity originating from an intermediate, and three subsidiary colors. An ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) method was developed and validated for determining seven organic impurities in Y6. For comparison, the currently used high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was also validated. The new UHPLC method uses a 1.7 µm particle size biphenyl column with aqueous ammonium formate and methanol as eluants. Analytes are identified by comparing their retention times and UV-visible spectra to those of reference standards. Calibration is performed in the presence of the dye matrix and analyte levels are determined from their peak areas. UHPLC and HPLC validation studies obtained linear calibration curves and excellent values for limits of detection, limits of quantitation, recovery, repeatability, and intermediate precision for all analytes. Survey analyses of 30 samples using the UHPLC and HPLC methods yielded results that were consistent within experimental error; however, the UHPLC method provided more accurate results for two analytes that coelute using the HPLC method. The UHPLC method satisfies the accuracy and precision requisites for routine certification of Y6. The UHPLC method is faster and generates less waste than the HPLC method while delivering better sensitivity, separation, and accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Validation of the single-event method for low-energy electron transport via stopping power calculations with $\mathrm{MCNP}$

Monte Carlo simulations of low-energy ( <50 keV) electron transport in matter are essential for a broad range of application fields. Several Monte Carlo codes have developed specialized treatments for this case, but a comprehensive validation of low-energy electron transport for general-purpose simulations remains lacking in the literature. One approach to accomplish this validation is calculation of stopping power using low-energy electron transport physics, as stopping power is a fundamental radiation transport quantity which must be simulated accurately for nearly any application. Here in this work, we use the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code with the single-event method for electron transport to calculate stopping powers of low-energy electrons (50 eV to 30 keV) in 41 elemental solids, 14 compound solids, and five rare gas solids, comparing simulation results to published semi-empirical stopping power calculations from optical measurements. In general, the simulations give good agreement (typically within ±10%) with semi-empirical stopping power values at higher energies: 300 eV and above for most elemental solids, 1 keV and above for compound solids, and 400 eV and above for rare gas solids. Agreement between MCNP and semi-empirical values is worse below these energies. The most significant source of error is the EPRDATA14 cross section data, which does not account for changes in electronic structure due to solid-state bonding, particularly in compound materials. The simplistic model of atomic excitation used to generate the EPRDATA14 cross sections is another key source of error. Additionally, the breakdown of the continuous slowing-down approximation introduces significant uncertainty at low energies, although this is a limitation of the calculation method and not of the simulation procedure. Accounting for these and other uncertainty sources, the single event method in MCNP is robust and able to give good accuracy for a variety of low-energy electron transport problems through diverse kinds of materials.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic inverter-based quantification of snow conditions and power loss

Snow is a significant challenge for photovoltaic (PV) systems at northern latitudes, where the pace of deployment is rapid but snow-related power losses can exceed 30% of annual production. Accurate snow-related power loss estimation methods for utility-scale sites can support snow mitigation strategies, inform resource planning and validate predictive snow-loss models. This study builds on our previous work on inverter-based detection of snow, and its implications for utility-scale power production, by validating the accuracy of our snow-loss method across different PV sites and system designs and highlighting its value in bringing greater visibility to PV plant operations in winter. Our estimation method is both novel and scalable, requiring only standard monitoring data to correlate snow-related losses with meteorological data. As demonstrated here, our validation method involved three main steps: 1) estimation of performance losses for multiple systems by comparing measured inverter data to modeled data; 2) application of a detection framework to identify which performance losses are snow-related; and 3) comparison of snow-related losses among three utility-scale sites differing in tilt angle. Results show that utility-scale systems at higher tilt angles consistently shed snow more quickly/completely than their lower-tilt counterparts. Further, monthly and seasonal snow losses are inversely and non-linearly correlated with tilt angle when normalized for cumulative snowfall. These results are consistent with the findings of previous studies and support the broad applicability of this method to fixed-tilt utility-scale PV systems around the world that routinely experience snow-related performance losses.

Cooper, Emma C. (ORCID:0000000190554098)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating Similarity Differences for Light-Water-Moderated and Polyethylene-Moderated Systems

Oak Ridge National Laboratory has performed validation studies in support of Pacific Northwest Laboratory’s analysis of the Sum-of-Fractions method. Work in a companion paper examines the validation methods and results for various mixtures of fissile isotopes in various concentrations moderated and reflected by light-water and polyethylene. Those results indicate a greater coverage of critical experiments for validating light water moderated and reflected systems vs. those with polyethylene. The work presented here details the analysis of differences between light-water and polyethylene systems developed from the different concentration mixtures utilized in the Sum-of-Fractions validation study. Differences in actinide contributions are detailed, explaining the differences in ck for the various systems. The available tools and analysis techniques in TSUNAMI are described to illustrate how these types of differences can be understood by practitioners.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tracking Volumetric Units in Modular Factories for Automated Progress Monitoring Using Computer Vision

The construction industry is increasingly adopting off-site and prefabricated methods due to advantages offered in safety, quality, and lead time. Applying industrialized methods for plant management in offsite construction factories requires the collection of large volumes of production process data, which is a tedious task when performed manually. Recent attempts to automate this process have relied on sensor-based data collection methods which are susceptible to noise, expensive, and difficult to validate. Computer vision methods, however, enable process data collection from videos without the limitations of the other sensor-based methods. This technology has not been applied for offsite construction except in very few instances and therefore, this study proposes a novel method to reliably collect the production process data using computer vision method in near real-time from widely used surveillance cameras in offsite construction. The proposed method allows the user to annotate the workstations of interest on the video as ground truths and process these areas throughout the entire video to track the units entering and leaving stations, while continuously updating a near real-time schedule of the production line. This framework was validated by implementing on the surveillance videos of the production process of modular home manufacturing in a factory. The results consistently provided 100% accuracy, after denoising, for all the videos processed including 60 h of work for a station. The developed method enables real-time tracking of station performance, which can enable continuous improvement methods for factory management and resource allocation.

computer vision↗

DOE OSTI2021

Feed-Forward Compensation for Model Predictive Control in Tri-port Current-Source Medium-Voltage String Inverters for PV-Plus-Storage Farms

The novel tri-port current-source medium-voltage string inverter (TCS-MVSI) is a promising candidate for large-scale PV-plus-storage (PVS) farms owing to its galvanic isolation, easy storage integration, soft-switching capability across entire load range, controlled low dv/dt and EMI, benign fault tolerance, etc. Due to its low inertia feature, traditional PI-based control cannot manage large transients effectively. Instead, a model-based predictive control (MPC) is proposed to achieve robust and stable operation. As is well known, the control performance of MPC is compromised by the sampling and computational delay during implementation significantly, if not well addressed. This paper analyzed and quantified these delays and then proposes feed-forward compensation (FFC) for the MPC method to compensate the delays and the large parameter variations due to the low-inertia nature. In addition, this method also compensates for the high dc-link ripple within each switching cycle, a unique issue for low-inertia converters. Here, the proposed method requires low computational effort, allowing it to be extended for multiple ports. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been validated in experiments. In 10 kW test, the proposed method decreases the average dc-link current by 17%, leading to ~20% conduction losses and ~0.5% increase in converter efficiency. In addition, the peak dc-link current also decreases by 15%, resulting in reduced transformer size. As a result, an increased power density can be achieved with the proposed method. Similar improvements have been observed across the power range from 2 kW to 10 kW.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating Similarity Differences for Light-water-Moderated and Polyethylene-Moderated Systems

Oak Ridge National Laboratory has performed validation studies in support of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s analysis of the Sum-of-Fractions method. Work in a companion paper examines the validation methods and results for various mixtures of fissile isotopes in various concentrations moderated and reflected by water and polyethylene. Those results indicate a greater coverage of critical experiments for validating water moderated and reflected systems versus those moderated and reflected with polyethylene.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Microgrid Scheduling With Chance‐Constrained Resilience Consideration

Traditionally, it is assumed that microgrids transition seamlessly from grid‐connected operation to islanded mode in the event of sudden main grid outages. In reality, the islanding process, especially unintentional islanding, is rarely seamless. Instead, it is subject to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by the instantaneous disconnection of the point of common coupling (PCC) switch, variations in loads and renewable generation output and even the protection tripping of distributed energy resources (DERs). To mitigate these fluctuations and facilitate a smooth islanding process, we propose a stochastic microgrid scheduling model that incorporates chance‐constrained resilience measures. Specifically, the resilience measure is defined as the probability of successful islanding (PSI), that is, the probability that a microgrid can mitigate the generation‐demand imbalance caused by the disconnection of the PCC switch, variations in load and renewable generation and DER tripping. This measure is modelled using chance constraints. Unlike existing reliability and resilience indices, which typically neglect the possibility of microgrid/DER failure under extreme events and assume their survival while primarily focussing on reducing impact duration or magnitude, the proposed PSI‐based framework explicitly addresses microgrid and DER survival during the islanding transition. The formulated nonlinear chance constraints are approximated using a multiinterval approach and equivalently represented as a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. Case study results validate the proposed method, showing that the PSI estimation error is reduced to less than 8%, compared to approximately 28% with existing methods. Various sensitivity analyses on the DER tripping rate and PSI settings were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed method. In particular, the necessity of accounting for DER tripping in the PSI calculation was demonstrated.

chance constrained optimization↗