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At least 397 records · Page 22

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 24: A general approach to measuring the value of aerospace information products and services

This paper discusses the various approaches to measuring the value of information, first defining the meanings of information, economics of information, and value. It concludes that no general model of measuring the value of information is possible and that the usual approaches, such as cost/benefit equations, have very limited applications. It also concludes that in specific contexts with given goals for newly developed products and services or newly acquired information there is a basis for its objective valuation. The axioms and inputs for such a model are described and directions for further verification and analysis are proposed.

Brinberg, Herbert R.↗

An Analysis of Model Scale Data Transformation to Full Scale Flight Using Chevron Nozzles

Ground-based model scale aeroacoustic data is frequently used to predict the results of flight tests while saving time and money. The value of a model scale test is therefore dependent on how well the data can be transformed to the full scale conditions. In the spring of 2000, a model scale test was conducted to prove the value of chevron nozzles as a noise reduction device for turbojet applications. The chevron nozzle reduced noise by 2 EPNdB at an engine pressure ratio of 2.3 compared to that of the standard conic nozzle. This result led to a full scale flyover test in the spring of 2001 to verify these results. The flyover test confirmed the 2 EPNdB reduction predicted by the model scale test one year earlier. However, further analysis of the data revealed that the spectra and directivity, both on an OASPL and PNL basis, do not agree in either shape or absolute level. This paper explores these differences in an effort to improve the data transformation from model scale to full scale.

Brown, Clifford↗

“Which Projections Do I Use?” Strategies for Climate Model Ensemble Subset Selection Based on Regional Stakeholder Needs

Climate model (or earth system model) projections are increasingly used for climate adaptation planning and impact assessments. As part of this process, many end‐users evaluate a subset of downscaled climate projections without being aware of the implications of downscaling methodology for statistics or event outcomes. Approaches for determining a subset of global climate models to use often focus on values from the raw models, rather than from their downscaled counterparts, in other words assuming that the statistical distribution of the multi‐model ensemble does not change post downscaling. This study demonstrates that a downscaled ensemble will typically retain the change distribution as a raw ensemble, but individual models can differ dramatically post‐downscaling. We recommend that subset‐selection methods account for this possibility and that decision‐relevant downscaled climate projections provide proper descriptions of fitness‐for‐purpose and essential caveats, so that non‐specialists can interpret the results with an appropriate level of confidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure and evolution of solar radio bursts at 26.4 MHz

Results are reported for multiple-baseline interferometric measurements of type II, III, IV, and V solar radio bursts at 26.4 MHz. Thirty-two burst events in a two-month period are analyzed by fitting a double-Gaussian two-dimensional source-brightness distribution model to the observed interferometer visibility function. The multibaseline time-sharing interferometer system employed is described in detail, the model-fitting technique is outlined, and values of the model-fit parameters are given for all 32 cases, which include two type II bursts, three type IV bursts, 17 type III bursts, seven type V bursts, and three bursts of type III, V pairs. The temporal evolution of source structure, size, and motion is examined for the different burst types. The core-halo source structure for the type III bursts is interpreted in comparison to two models, one of which assumes scattering and refraction of a point source while the other postulates primarily refraction from an ensemble of sources distributed over a wide sector in solar longitude.

Chen, H. S.-L.↗

Designing to Mitigate Food Growing Failures in Space

Future space life support systems may use crop plants to grow most of the crew s food. A harvest failure can reduce the food available for future consumption. If the previously stored food is insufficient to reach the next harvest, the crew may go hungry. This paper considers how the overall food supply system should be modified to cope with food production failures. The food supply concept for a mission will use grown food, or stored food, cIr both. The optimum food supply mix depends on the costs and failure probabilities of stored and grown food. A simple food system model assumes that either we obtain the nominal harvest or a failure occurs and no food is harvested. Given the probability that any particular harvest fails, it is easy to compute the expected number of failures and the total food shortfall over a mission. If some food is grown and the probability of harvest failure is high, a non-redundant system has an unacceptable likelihood that the crew will have no food for a full harvest period. Food supply reliability must be increased either by supplying more food initially or by increasing food production capacity. We can obtain a very reliable food supply even when the harvest failure rate is high. If the cost of growing food is much less than the cost of providing stored food, it is better to provide redundant food growing capacity than to increase initial storage. A more realistic biomass production failure model allows the harvest amount or time to vary around the nominal values, using stochastic modeling with repeated Monte Carlo simulation, but such failures have minor impact compared to a complete harvest failure.

Jones, Harry↗

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral

This paper evaluates the use of precipitable water (PW) from Global Positioning System (GPS) in lightning prediction. Additional independent verification of an earlier model is performed. This earlier model used binary logistic regression with the following four predictor variables optimally selected from a candidate list of 23 candidate predictors: the current precipitable water value for a given time of the day, the change in GPS-PW over the past 9 hours, the KIndex, and the electric field mill value. This earlier model was not optimized for any specific forecast interval, but showed promise for 6 hour and 1.5 hour forecasts. Two new models were developed and verified. These new models were optimized for two operationally significant forecast intervals. The first model was optimized for the 0.5 hour lightning advisories issued by the 45th Weather Squadron. An additional 1.5 hours was allowed for sensor dwell, communication, calculation, analysis, and advisory decision by the forecaster. Therefore the 0.5 hour advisory model became a 2 hour forecast model for lightning within the 45th Weather Squadron advisory areas. The second model was optimized for major ground processing operations supported by the 45th Weather Squadron, which can require lightning forecasts with a lead-time of up to 7.5 hours. Using the same 1.5 lag as in the other new model, this became a 9 hour forecast model for lightning within 37 km (20 NM)) of the 45th Weather Squadron advisory areas. The two new models were built using binary logistic regression from a list of 26 candidate predictor variables: the current GPS-PW value, the change of GPS-PW over 0.5 hour increments from 0.5 to 12 hours, and the K-index. The new 2 hour model found the following for predictors to be statistically significant, listed in decreasing order of contribution to the forecast: the 0.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the 7.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the current GPS-PW value, and the KIndex. The new 9 hour forecast model found the following five independent variables to be statistically significant, listed in decreasing order of contribution to the forecast: the current GPSPW value, the 8.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the 3.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the 12 hour change in GPS-PW, and the K-Index. In both models, the GPS-PW parameters had better correlation to the lightning forecast than the K-Index, a widely used thunderstorm index. Possible future improvements to this study are discussed.

Kehrer, Kristen C.↗

Method for Predicting and Optimizing System Parameters for Electrospinning System

An electrospinning system using a spinneret and a counter electrode is first operated for a fixed amount of time at known system and operational parameters to generate a fiber mat having a measured fiber mat width associated therewith. Next, acceleration of the fiberizable material at the spinneret is modeled to determine values of mass, drag, and surface tension associated with the fiberizable material at the spinneret output. The model is then applied in an inversion process to generate predicted values of an electric charge at the spinneret output and an electric field between the spinneret and electrode required to fabricate a selected fiber mat design. The electric charge and electric field are indicative of design values for system and operational parameters needed to fabricate the selected fiber mat design.

Wincheski, Russell A.↗

Current evolution in a numerical emerging-magnetic-flux model

The resistive-MHD equations are numerically solved in two-dimensions for an initial-boundary-value problem which models the emergence of magnetic flux from the photosphere into the corona. As the emergence begins a current sheet forms around the emerging region which separates the emerging region from the overlying coronal magnetic field. This current sheet is the source of the free-magnetic energy in the system, and in the limit of zero resistivity it is a simple tangential discontinuity. However, when the resistivity is finite, reconnection between the magnetic field in the emerging region and the overlying coronal magnetic field ensures, and the subsequent evolution of the enveloping current sheet becomes complex. The overall time history of the current evolution is suggestive of the expected current evolution for the pre-flare, impulsive, and main phases of flares.

Forbes, T.↗

Investigation of a Macromechanical Approach to Analyzing Triaxially-Braided Polymer Composites

A macro level finite element-based model has been developed to simulate the mechanical and impact response of triaxially-braided polymer matrix composites. In the analytical model, the triaxial braid architecture is simulated by using four parallel shell elements, each of which is modeled as a laminated composite. The commercial transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA is used to conduct the simulations, and a continuum damage mechanics model internal to LS-DYNA is used as the material constitutive model. The material stiffness and strength values required for the constitutive model are determined based on coupon level tests on the braided composite. Simulations of quasi-static coupon tests of a representative braided composite are conducted. Varying the strength values that are input to the material model is found to have a significant influence on the effective material response predicted by the finite element analysis, sometimes in ways that at first glance appear non-intuitive. A parametric study involving the input strength parameters provides guidance on how the analysis model can be improved.

Goldberg, Robert K.↗

A Bayesian framework to investigate radiation reaction in strong fields

Recent experiments aiming to measure phenomena predicted by strong-field quantum electrodynamics (SFQED) have done so by colliding relativistic electron beams and high-power lasers. In such experiments, measurements of collision parameters are not always feasible. However, precise knowledge of these parameters is required to accurately test SFQED. Here, we present a novel Bayesian inference procedure that infers collision parameters that could not be measured on-shot. This procedure is applicable to all-optical non-linear Compton scattering experiments investigating radiation reaction. The framework allows multiple diagnostics to be combined self-consistently and facilitates the inclusion of known information pertaining to the collision parameters. Using this Bayesian analysis, the relative validity of the classical, quantum-continuous and quantum-stochastic models of radiation reaction was compared for several test cases, which demonstrates the accuracy and model selection capability of the framework and highlight its robustness if the experimental values of fixed parameters differ from their values in the models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Statistical considerations in design of spacelab experiments

After making an analysis of experimental error sources, statistical models were developed for the design and analysis of potential Space Shuttle experiments. Guidelines for statistical significance and/or confidence limits of expected results were also included. The models were then tested out on the following proposed Space Shuttle biomedical experiments: (1) bone density by computer tomography; (2) basal metabolism; and (3) total body water. Analysis of those results and therefore of the models proved inconclusive due to the lack of previous research data and statistical values. However, the models were seen as possible guides to making some predictions and decisions.

Robinson, J.↗

Quantifying Parameter Sensitivity, Interaction and Transferability in Hydrologically Enhanced Versions of Noah-LSM over Transition Zones

We use sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters that are most responsible for shaping land surface model (LSM) simulations and to understand the complex interactions in three versions of the Noah LSM: the standard version (STD), a version enhanced with a simple groundwater module (GW), and version augmented by a dynamic phenology module (DV). We use warm season, high-frequency, near-surface states and turbulent fluxes collected over nine sites in the US Southern Great Plains. We quantify changes in the pattern of sensitive parameters, the amount and nature of the interaction between parameters, and the covariance structure of the distribution of behavioral parameter sets. Using Sobol s total and first-order sensitivity indexes, we show that very few parameters directly control the variance of the model output. Significant parameter interaction occurs so that not only the optimal parameter values differ between models, but the relationships between parameters change. GW decreases parameter interaction and appears to improve model realism, especially at wetter sites. DV increases parameter interaction and decreases identifiability, implying it is overparameterized and/or underconstrained. A case study at a wet site shows GW has two functional modes: one that mimics STD and a second in which GW improves model function by decoupling direct evaporation and baseflow. Unsupervised classification of the posterior distributions of behavioral parameter sets cannot group similar sites based solely on soil or vegetation type, helping to explain why transferability between sites and models is not straightforward. This evidence suggests a priori assignment of parameters should also consider climatic differences.

Rosero, Enrique↗

Friction damping studies in multiple turbine blade systems by lumped mass method

Analytical studies were conducted on multiple turbine blade systems using the lumped mass method. Each blade was idealized by a two mass-two spring model whose modal values were determined from the known frequencies corresponding to the first two bending modes and the frequency corresponding to the platform lockup condition. Two friction damping models were considered namely, the blade-to-blade and the blade-damper-blade. The equations of motion derived on the basis of these models were solved by a method of harmonic balance, assuming, in effect, that under cyclic excitation the blades will exhibit cyclic response at the same frequency. The solutions for 8 blade, 16 blade, and 4 blade systems were obtained using the computer program BLADE. The levels of damping produced by the two friction damping models were compared and evaluated. The optimal values of the friction force, for which the tip amplitude of the blades had a minimum value, were determined.

Raju, B. B.↗

The underlying magnetic field direction in Ulysses observations of the southern polar heliosphere

Between May 1993 and January 1995, the Ulysses spacecraft has probed the southern polar heliosphere at latitudes greater than 30 deg S, reaching a maximum latitude of 80.2 deg S in September 1994. Using hourly averages of the data obtained by the magnetometer experiment on Ulysses we have studied the underlying direction of the magnetic field threading this region of the heliosphere, away from the influence of the magnetic sector structure which complicates similar analyses in the ecliptic plane. We have constructed histograms of the measured magnetic field direction using the simple Parker spiral model field direction as a reference. We find that throughout this region the meridional angle between the field vector and the Parker model direction has a distribution which is symmetric and has a most probable value consistent with the model. At latitudes below about 60 deg S the azimuthal angle distribution also has a most probable value consistent with the model but this distribution is highly asymmetric with a greater number of observations of field lines less tightly wound than the expected spiral direction. At latitudes greater than 60 deg S the most probable value of the azimuthal angle is found to have become nearly 30 more tightly wound than the expected direction, but due to the asymmetric distribution still with a greater number of observations less tightly wound than expected. We consider possible causes of both the asymmetry in the distributions and the shift in the most probable value at the highest latitudes, one of which may be the presence of large amplitude, long period Alfven waves in the magnetic field originating from the Sun's southern polar coronal hole.

Forsyth, R. J.↗

Coefficient of restitution for low velocity transverse impact of thin graphite-epoxy laminates

A simple model is presented for the low velocity impact behavior of thin plates composed of T300/5208 graphite/epoxy. The model, which is constructed on the assumption that the plate is inextensible in the fiber direction and that the material is incompressible in the z direction, is able to predict the energy absorbed by the target during an impact event, or the 'coefficient of restitution'. The plate essentially deforms by shear, allowing the model to neglect bending deformations. The coefficient of restitution is predicted to increase with large interlaminar shear strength and low transverse shear modulus of the laminate. The coefficient's experimentally measured values agree with model-predicted values within a reasonable error.

Lal, K. M.↗

Effective Inflow Conditions for Turbulence Models in Aerodynamic Calculations

The selection of inflow values at boundaries far upstream of an aircraft is considered, for one- and two-equation turbulence models. Inflow values are distinguished from the ambient values near the aircraft, which may be much smaller. Ambient values should be selected first, and inflow values that will lead to them after the decay second; this is not always possible, especially for the time scale. The two-equation decay during the approach to the aircraft is shown; often, the time scale has been set too short for this decay to be calculated accurately on typical grids. A simple remedy for both issues is to impose floor values for the turbulence variables, outside the viscous sublayer, and it is argued that overriding the equations in this manner is physically justified. Selecting laminar ambient values is easy, if the boundary layers are to be tripped, but a more common practice is to seek ambient values that will cause immediate transition in boundary layers. This opens up a wide range of values, and selection criteria are discussed. The turbulent Reynolds number, or ratio of eddy viscosity to laminar viscosity has a huge dynamic range that makes it unwieldy; it has been widely mis-used, particularly by codes that set upper limits on it. The value of turbulent kinetic energy in a wind tunnel or the atmosphere is also of dubious value as an input to the model. Concretely, the ambient eddy viscosity must be small enough to preserve potential cores in small geometry features, such as flap gaps. The ambient frequency scale should also be small enough, compared with shear rates in the boundary layer. Specific values are recommended and demonstrated for airfoil flows

Spalart, Philippe R.↗

A geometric model for excavation and modification at terrestrial simple impact craters

A geometric model for the excavation and modification stages of simple crater development is presented. Cavity modification is modelled from an analytical derivation of the dimensions of the so-called transient cavity (Dence, 1973; Dence et al., 1977). The final cavity as it appears in terrestrial craters and the primary elements of excavation are approximated by a variation of the so-called Z model. The applicability of the model is tested with data from the Meteor and Brent craters. In the case of Meteor, the modelled final crater diameter at the original ground plane is within 26 m of the observed value and the modelled breccia lens and the rim crest volumes of the final true crater are within 9.5 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, of the observed values. The correspondence for the more degraded Brent crater is less precise.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗