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NASA NTRS2008

Quantifying VOC-Reaction Tracers, Ozone Production, and Continuing Aerosol Production Rates in Urban and Far-Downwind Atmospheres

We have found a surprisingly informative decomposition of the complex question of smoggy ozone production (basically, [HO2] in a more locally determined field of [NO]) in the process of linked investigations of modestly smoggy Eastern North America (by NASA aircraft, July 2004) and rather polluted Flushing, NYC (Queens College, July, 2001). In both rural and very polluted situations, we find that a simple contour graph parameterization of the local principal ozone production rate can be estimated using only the variables [NO] and j(sub rads) [HCHO]: Po(O3) = c (j(sub rads) [HCHO])(sup a) [HCHO](sup b). Here j(sub rads) is the photolysis of HCHO to radicals, presumably capturing many harder-UV photolytic processes and the principle ozone production is that due to HO2; mechanisms suggest that ozone production due to RO2 is closely correlated, often suggesting a limited range of different proportionality factors. The method immediately suggests a local interpretation for concepts of VOC limitation and NOx limitation. We believe that the product j(sub rads) [HCHO] guages the oxidation rate of observed VOC mixtures in a way that also provides [HO2] useful for the principle ozone production rate k [HO2] [NO], and indeed, all ozone chemical production. The success of the method suggests that dominant urban primary-HCHO sources may transition to secondary plume-HCHO sources in a convenient way. Are there other, simple, near-terminal oxidized VOC's which help guage ozone production and aerosol particle formation? Regarding particles, we report on, to the extent NASA Research resources allow, on appealing relationships between far-downwind (Atlantic PBL) HCHO and very fine aerosol (including sulfate. Since j(sub rads) [HCHO] provides a time-scale, we may understand distant-plume particle production in a more quantitative manner. Additionally we report on a statistical search in the nearer field for relationships between glyoxals (important near-terminal aromatic and isoprene reaction products) and aerosol production, looking for VOC's that might be most implicated. All three variables j(sub rads), [HCHO], and [NO] are relatively easily measured in widespread air pollution monitoring networks, and all are deducible form space-borne observations, though estimation of [NO] from [NO2] (the species observable from space) may require care. We report also on airborne and surface observations of HCHO, suggesting that concentrated (urban) and more diffuse (forest) sources may be distinguishable from space. The use of the 3.58 micron microwindow for HCHO remote sensing should allow much sharper resolution of HCHO than the UV. UV sensing requires large and expensive instruments, but even these seem justified since formaldehyde is so informative.

Chatfield, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1994

Implications of summertime marine stratocumulus on the North American climate

This study focuses on the effects of summertime stratocumulus over the eastern Pacific. This cloud is linked to the semi-permanent sub-tropical highs that dominate the low-level circulation over the Pacific and Atlantic. Subsidence on the eastern flank of these highs creates an inversion based about 800 m above sea level that caps moist air near the surface. This air overlies cool waters driven by upwelling along the coastal regions of North America. Strong surface north-westerlies mix the boundary layer enough to saturate the air just below the capping inversion. Widespread stratocumulus is thus formed. All calculations were carried out using the GENESIS general circulation model that was run at MSFC. Among the more important properties of the model is that it includes radiative forcing due to absorption of solar radiation and the emission of infrared radiation, interactive clouds (both stratocumulus and cumulus types), exchanges of heat and moisture with the lower boundary. Clouds are interactive in the sense that they impact the circulation by modifying the fields of radiative heating and turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture in the boundary layer. In turn, clouds are modified by the winds through the advection of moisture. In order to isolate the effects of mid- and high-latitude stratocumulus, two runs were made with the model: one with and the other without stratocumulus. The runs were made for a year, but with perpetual July conditions, i.e., solar forcing was fixed. The diurnal solar cycle, however, was allowed for. The sea surface temperature distribution was fixed in both runs to represent climatological July conditions. All dependent variables were represented at 12 surfaces of constant sigma = p/p(sub O), where p is pressure and p(sub O) is surface pressure. To facilitate analysis, model output was transformed to constant pressure surfaces. Structures no smaller in size than 7.5 degrees longitude and 4.5 degrees in latitude were resolved. Smaller features of the circulation were parameterized. The model thus captures synoptic- and planetary-scale circulation features.

Clark, John H. E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

Lim, Young-Kwon↗

NASA NTRS1994

Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere

In this paper, fundamental multiscale circulation modes in the global atmosphere are identified with the objective of providing better understanding of atmospheric low-frequency variabilities over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. With the use of a combination of rotated principal component technique, singular spectrum analysis, and phase space portraits, three categories of basic multiscale modes in the atmosphere are found. The first is the interannual-mode (IAM), which is dominated by time scales longer than a year and can be attributed to heating and circulation anomalies associated with the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere, in particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second is a set of tropical intraseasonal modes consisting of three separate multiscale patterns (ISO-1, -2, -3) related to tropical heating that can be identified with the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), including its teleconnection to the extratropics. The ISO spatial and temporal patterns suggest that the extratropical wave train in the North Pacific and North America is related to heating over the Maritime Continent and that the evolution of the MJO around the equator may require forcing from the extratropics spawning convection over the Indian Ocean. The third category represents extratropical intraseasonal oscillations arising from internal dynamics of the basic-state circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two distinct circulation modes with multiple frequencies in this category: the Pacific/North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic/Eurasia (NAE). In the Southern Hemisphere, two phase-locked modes (PSA-1 and PSA-2) are found depicting an eastward propagating wave train from eastern Australia, via the Pacific South America to the South Atlantic. The extratropical modes exhibit temporal characteristics such as phase locking and harmonic oscillations possibly associated with quadratically nonlinear dynamical systems. Additionally, the observed monthly and seasonal anomalies arise from a complex interplay of the various multiscale low-frequency modes. The relative dominance of the different modes varies widely from month to month and from year to year. On the monthly time scale, while one or two mechanisms may dominate in one year, no single mechanism seems to dominate for all years. There are indications that when the IAM, that is, ENSO heating patterns are strong, the extratropical modes may be suppressed and vice versa. For the seasonal mean, the interannual mode tends to dominate and the contribution from the PNA remains quite significant.

Lau, K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Tropospheric Ozone Pollution from Space: New Views from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) Instrument

New products from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) >satellite instrument can resolve pollution events in tropical and mid-latitudes, Over the past several years, we have developed tropospheric ozone data sets by two methods. The modified-residual technique [Hudson and Thompson, 1998; Thompson and Hudson, 1999] uses v. 7 TOMS total ozone and is applicable to tropical regimes in which the wave-one pattern in total ozone is observed. The TOMSdirect method [Hudson et at., 2000] represents a new algorithm that uses TOMS radiances to extract tropospheric ozone in regions of constant stratospheric ozone and tropospheric ozone displaying high mixing ratios and variability characteristic of pollution, Absorbing aerosols (dust and smoke; Herman et at., 1997 Hsu et al., 1999), a standard TOMS product, provide transport and/or source marker information to interpret tropospheric ozone. For the Nimbus 7/TOMS observing period (1979-1992), modified-residual TTO (tropical tropospheric ozone) appears as two maps/month at I-degree latitude 2-degree longitude resolution at a homepage and digital data are available (20S to 20N) by ftp at http://metosrv2. umd.edu/~tropo/ 14y_data.d. Preliminary modified-residual TTO data from the operational Earth-Probe/TOMS (1996- present) are posted in near-real-time at the same website. Analyses with the new tropospheric ozone and aerosol data are illustrated by the following (I)Signals in tropical tropospheric ozone column and smoke amount during ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) events, e.g. 1982-1983 and the intense ENSO induced biomass fires of 1997-1998 over the Indonesian region [Thompson et a[, 2000a, Thompson and Hudson, 1999]. (2) Trends in tropospheric ozone and smoke aerosols in various tropical regions (Atlantic, Pacific, Africa, Brazil). No significant trends were found for ozone from1980-1990 [Thompson and Hudson, 19991 although smoke aerosols increased during the period [Hsu et al.,1999]. (3) Temporal and spatial offsets ("paradoxes") in tropical tropospheric ozone and smoke aerosol in regions of greatest tropical biomass burning [Thompson et at., 1996;2000b]. (4) Trans-boundary pollution tracking. With an air parcel (trajectory) model, smoke aerosol and ozone and dust plumes can be tracked across oceans (e.g., Asia to North America; North America to Europe) and national boundaries, e.g. Indonesia to Singapore and Malaysia during the 1997 ENSO fires.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Early Holocene cold snaps and their expression in the moraine record of the eastern European Alps

Glaciers preserve climate variations in their geological and geomorphological records, which makes them prime candidates for climate reconstructions. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the past millennia is particularly relevant first because the amplitude and frequency of natural climate variability during the Holocene provides the climatic context against which modern, human-induced climate change must be assessed. Second, the transition from the last glacial to the current interglacial promises important insights into the climate system during warming, which is of particular interest with respect to ongoing climate change. Evidence of stable ice margin positions that record cooling during the past 12 kyr are preserved in two glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in the eastern European Alps, the Jamtal (JAM) and the Laraintal (LAR). We mapped and dated moraines in these catchments including historical ridges using beryllium-10 surface exposure dating (10Be SED) techniques and correlate resulting moraine formation intervals with climate proxy records to evaluate the spatial and temporal scale of these cold phases. The new geochronologies indicate the formation of moraines during the early Holocene (EH), ca. 11.0 ± 0.7 ka (n = 19). Boulder ages along historical moraines (n = 6) suggest at least two glacier advances during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250–1850 CE) around 1300 CE and in the second half of the 18th century. An earlier advance to the same position may have occurred around 500 CE. The Jamtal and Laraintal moraine chronologies provide evidence that millennial-scale EH warming was superimposed by centennial-scale cooling. The timing of EH moraine formation coincides with brief temperature drops identified in local and regional paleoproxy records, most prominently with the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO) and is consistent with moraine deposition in other catchments in the European Alps and in the Arctic region. This consistency points to cooling beyond the local scale and therefore a regional or even hemispheric climate driver. Freshwater input sourced from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which changed circulation patterns in the North Atlantic, is a plausible explanation for EH cooling and moraine formation in the Nordic region and in Europe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Magnitude and Variability of Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 1999 the northern mid-latitudes appear to be drying, the southern mid-latitudes have gotten wetter, and there is a mixed signal in the tropics. The relation between this field of trends and the relation to the frequency of El Nino events during this time period is explored. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. These El Nino minus La Nina composites of normalized precipitation show the usual positive, or wet, anomaly over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with the negative, or dry, anomaly over the maritime continent along with an additional negative anomaly over Brazil and the Atlantic Ocean extending into Africa and a positive anomaly over the Horn of Africa and the western Indian Ocean. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern US and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. The N.H. counterpart crosses the North Pacific and southern Canada. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The HyMeX Special Observation Period in Central Italy: Precipitation Measurements, Retrieval Techniques and Preliminary Results

The Mediterranean area concentrates the major natural risks related to the water cycle, including heavy precipitation and flash-flooding during the fall season. The capability to predict such high-impact events remains weak because of the contribution of very fine-scale processes and their non-linear interactions with the larger scale processes. These societal and science issues motivate the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, http://www.hymex.orgl) experimental programme. HyMeX aims at a better quantification and understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean with emphasis on intense events. The observation strategy of HyMEX is organized in a long-term (4 years) Enhanced Observation Periods (EOP) and short-term (2 months) Special Observation Periods (SOP). HyMEX has identified 3 main Mediterranean target areas: North-West (NW), Adriatic (A) and South-East (SE). Within each target area several hydrometeorological sites for heavy rainfall and flash flooding have been set up. The hydrometeorological sire in Central Italy (CI) is interested by both western and eastern fronts coming from the Atlantic Ocean and Siberia, respectively. Orographic precipitations play an important role due to the central Apennine range, which reaches nearly 3000 m (Gran Sasso peak). Moreover, convective systems commonly develop in CI during late summer and beginning of autumn, often causing localized hailstorms with cluster organized cells. Western fronts may heavily hit the Tiber basin crossing large urban areas (Rome), whereas eastern fronts can cause flash floods along the Adriatic coastline. Two major basins are involved within Cl region: Tiber basin (1000 km long) and its tributary Aniene and the Aterno-Pescara basin (300 km long). The first HyMeX SOP1.1 was carried out from Sept. till Nov. 2012 in the NW target area The Italian SOP1.1 was coordinated by the Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, a city located in the CI heart. The CI area was covered by a uniquely dense meteorological instrumentation thanks to a synergy between Italian institutions and NASA-GSFC. The following RADARs were operated: a Doppler single-polarization C-band radar located at Mt Midia; the Polar 55C Doppler dual-polarization C-band radar located in Rome; a Doppler C-hand polarimetric radar located at Il Monte (Abnazo); a polarimetric X-band mini-radar in L' Aquila; a polarimetric X-hand portable mini-radar in Rome; a single-polarization X-band mini-radar in Rome. DISDROMETERs were also deployed: 4 Parsivel optical disdrometers in Rome (at Sapienza, CNR-ISAC and CNR-INSEAN); 1 2D-video disdrometer in Rome; 3 Parsivels optical disdrometer respectively in L'Aquila (Abnazo), Avezzano (Abruzzo) and Pescara (Abnazo). Other INSTRUMENTS were available: 1 K-band vertically-pointing micro rain-radar (MRR), 2 Pludix X-band disdrometers, 1 VLF lightning sensor, 1 microwave radiometer at 23-31 GHz in Rome (at Sapienza); the raingauge network with more than 200 stations in Central Italy. Three overpasses in CI were also performed by the Falcon 20 aircraft equipped with the 950Hz cloud radar RASTA Analysis of the SOP1.1 main events in CI will be described by focusing on the raindrop size distribution statistics and its geographical variability. Intercomparison of rainfall estimates from disdrometers, raingauges and radars will be illustrated with the aim to provide a quality-controlled and physically consistent rainfall dataset for meteorological modeling validation and assimilation purposes.

Gatlin, Patrick↗