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At least 397 records · Page 22

Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems

While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments.

Yang, Song↗

Ocean Domains and Maximum Degree of Spherical Harmonic and Orthonormal Expansions

Ocean domains used for the orthonormal (ON) systems are studied to determine the maximum degree of spherical harmonic and orthonormal expansions that can be constructed. Although it was shown that one domain was restricted to degree 24, others were shown could be constructed to determine expansions to at least degree 36. Since 1991 the maximum degree expansion used for several Ohio State studies has been 24. In this report it is shown that the maximum degree for the ocean domain used by Wang and Rapp [1994] was 32 and 29 for the domain used by Rapp, Zhang, Yi [1996]. A modification of the former domain was developed (D1e) that enabled a solution to degree 36 to be determined. A modification of the Rapp, Zhang, Yi domain (D7d) enabled a degree 30 solution to be made. Combination coefficients were developed for domain D1e, to degree 36, and to degree 30 for domain D7d. The degree 30 spherical harmonic expansion provided by Pavlis [1998] of the POCM_4B dynamic ocean topography (DOT), and the degree 30 part of the degree 360 expansion [Rapp. 1998] of the POCM_4B model was converted to an ON expansion valid for the D7d domain. The degree 36 part of the degree 360 expansion was converted to the ON expansion for the D1e domain. The square root of the degree variances of the various solutions were compared. The root mean square value of DOT from the Pai,lis expansion, after conversion to the ON system, was + or - 66.52 cm (D7d domain). The value from the degree 30 part of the 360 expansion was + or - 66.65 cm. The value based on the actual POCM-4B data, in the D7d domain, was + or - 66.74 cm showing excellent agreement with the ON results. If the spherical harmonic coefficients had been used the implied root mean square value was + or - 60.76 cm [Pavlis] and + or -59.70 cm [Rapp].

Rapp, R.↗

Momentum Flux Determination Using the Multi-beam Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar

In this paper, we develop an estimator for the vertical flux of horizontal momentum with arbitrary beam pointing, applicable to the case of arbitrary but fixed beam pointing with systems such as the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR). This method uses information from all available beams to resolve the variances of the wind field in addition to the vertical flux of both meridional and zonal momentum, targeted for high-frequency wave motions. The estimator utilises the full covariance of the distributed measurements, which provides a significant reduction in errors over the direct extension of previously developed techniques and allows for the calculation of an error covariance matrix of the estimated quantities. We find that for the PFISR experiment, we can construct an unbiased and robust estimator of the momentum flux if sufficient and proper beam orientations are chosen, which can in the future be optimized for the expected frequency distribution of momentum-containing scales. However, there is a potential trade-off between biases and standard errors introduced with the new approach, which must be taken into account when assessing the momentum fluxes. We apply the estimator to PFISR measurements on 23 April 2008 and 21 December 2007, from 60-85 km altitude, and show expected results as compared to mean winds and in relation to the measured vertical velocity variances.

Momentum flux↗

Repeated-Measures Analysis of Image Data

It is suggested that using a modified analysis of variance procedure on data sampled systematically from a rectangular array of image data can provide a measure of homogeneity of means over that array in single directions and how variation in perpendicular directions interact. The modification of analysis of variance required to account for spatial correlation is described theoretically and numerically on simulated data.

Newton, H. J.↗

Impact of lossy compression on diagnostic accuracy of radiographs for periapical lesions

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the lossy Joint Photographic Experts Group compression for endodontic pretreatment digital radiographs. STUDY DESIGN: Fifty clinical charge-coupled device-based, digital radiographs depicting periapical areas were selected. Each image was compressed at 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 48, and 64 compression ratios. One root per image was marked for examination. Images were randomized and viewed by four clinical observers under standardized viewing conditions. Each observer read the image set three times, with at least two weeks between each reading. Three pre-selected sites per image (mesial, distal, apical) were scored on a five-scale score confidence scale. A panel of three examiners scored the uncompressed images, with a consensus score for each site. The consensus score was used as the baseline for assessing the impact of lossy compression on the diagnostic values of images. The mean absolute error between consensus and observer scores was computed for each observer, site, and reading session. RESULTS: Balanced one-way analysis of variance for all observers indicated that for compression ratios 48 and 64, there was significant difference between mean absolute error of uncompressed and compressed images (P <.05). After converting the five-scale score to two-level diagnostic values, the diagnostic accuracy was strongly correlated (R (2) = 0.91) with the compression ratio. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that high compression ratios can have a severe impact on the diagnostic quality of the digital radiographs for detection of periapical lesions.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

Assessing the predictive impact of factor fixing with an adaptive uncertainty-based approach .

Despite widespread use of factor fixing in environmental modeling, its effect on model predictions has received little attention and is instead commonly presumed to be negligible. We propose a proof-of-concept adaptive method for systematically investigating the impact of factor fixing. The method uses Global Sensitivity Analysis methods to identify groups of sensitive parameters, then quantifies which groups can be safely fixed at nominal values without exceeding a maximum acceptable error, demonstrated using the 21-dimensional Sobol’ G-function. Furthermore, three error measures are considered for quantities of interest, namely Relative Mean Absolute Error, Pearson Product-Moment Correlation and Relative Variance. Results demonstrate that factor fixing may cause large errors in the model results unexpectedly, when preliminary analysis suggests otherwise, and that the default value selected affects the number of factors to fix. To improve the applicability and methodological development of factor fixing, a new research agenda encompassing five opportunities is discussed for further attention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dust Growth by Accretion of Molecules in Supersonic Interstellar Turbulence

We show that the growth rate of dust grains in cold molecular clouds is enhanced by the high degree of compressibility of a turbulent, dilute gas. By means of high-resolution (1024 3 ) numerical simulations, we confirm the theory that the spatial mean growth rate is proportional to the gas-density variance. This also results in broadening of the grain-size distribution (GSD) due to turbulence-induced variation of the grain-growth rate. We show, for the first time in a detailed numerical simulation of hydrodynamic turbulence, that the GSD evolves toward a shape that is a reflection of the gas-density distribution, regardless of the initial distribution. That is, in case of isothermal, rotationally forced turbulence, the GSD tends to be a lognormal distribution. We also show that in hypersonic turbulence, decoupling of gas and dust becomes important and that this leads to an even further accelerated grain growth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A model for the I/O-channel traffic in computer systems.

A new model is proposed which is based on the assumption that the actual traffic to be processed by an I/O channel system is generated as the overflow from a fictitious server system having Poisson traffic as the input. The number of servers and the mean arrival rate can be readily adjusted to verify the main value and the variance of the actual traffic to be handled. A closed solution for the stationary probabilities of state is obtained, and the parameters conventionally used to describe the grade of performance of queuing systems (such as mean queue length, mean waiting time, and probability of waiting) are defined.

Kuemmerle, K.↗

Seasonal and interannual variations in total ozone revealed by the Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet experiment

The first 2 years of backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) ozone data from the Nimbus 4 spacecraft have been processed to a more refined level. The seasonal variations of total ozone for the period April 1970 to April 1972 are described using daily means for 10 deg latitude zones and a time-latitude cross section. In addition, the BUV data are compared with analyzed Dobson data and with infrared interferometer spectrometer data also obtained from the Nimbus 4 spacecraft. A harmonic analysis was performed on the daily zonal means. Amplitudes, days of peak ozone values, and percentage of variance have been computed for the annual and semiannual waves and for higher harmonics of an annual period for the 2 years. Asymmetries are found in the annual waves in the two hemispheres, with a subtle interannual difference which may be due to changes in the general circulation. A significant semiannual component is detected in the tropics for the first year. This component appears to result from influences of the annual waves in the two hemispheres. A search for shorter periods using the harmonic analysis revealed no periodicity whose amplitude was higher than the noise level.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

The structure, energetics and evolution of the dominant frequency-dependent three-dimensional atmospheric modes

The three-dimensional structure of the dominant modes of wintertime variability are examined, and the mode structures are determined by an EOF analysis of the coupled vertical mean and shear streamfunction fields for a wide range of time-scale classes. The time mean energy conversions are determined from a two-layer quasigeostrophic model. Lag-cross correlations between the dominant low-frequency modes tend to be small and/or symmetric about zero, the high frequency modes are found to show highly asymmetric sinusoidal cross correlation functions similar to traveling waves, and some intermediate and short-time scale modes exhibit correlations indicating an association with the decaying phases of blocking in the Pacific. It is suggested that the mean flow barotropic (baroclinic) instabilities are an important source of variance for some of the lowest (highest) fluctuations considered.

Schubert, S. D.↗

Third generation earth radiation budget measurements; ERBE in the context of earlier systems

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) observations are just becoming available for scientific use. These represent the third generation of measurements with steadily improving accuracy and resolution. Beginning in the 1960's observations by spherical detectors established the mean albedo of the Earth near 30 percent in substantial variance from presatellite estimates. The Nimbus 6 and 7 wide field of view ERB measurements represent a long-term climatology of measurements at 1000 km resolution. The ERBE measurements introduce higher accuracy and higher space and time resolution result. Comparisons will be presented of several April ERB measurements to illustrate what this improvement in resolution and accuracy can yield. Simultaneous ERBE and Nimbus 7 measurements for April 1985 show nearly identical results on the large scale. Comparison of measurements of direct solar energy from ERBE, Solar Max Mission and Nimbus 7 suggest a 'solar constant' value of 1368 w/sq m for the 1979 to 1986 period. The long-term record of earth radiation budget (Aprils from 1976 to 1985) over large regions is shown to have interannual variation of plus or minus 20 to 30 w/sq. m. The new ERBE data will allow this climate record measurement to continue.

Vonderhaar, Thomas H.↗

Topographic distribution of clear-sky radiation over the Konza Prairie, Kansas

A method for exploring the topographic modulation of clear-sky incoming radiation using a two-stream atmospheric model together with digital elevation data is presented to obtain the temporal and spatial distribution of this energy. Utilizing this methodology for the Konza Prairie, it is observed that the variance and spatial autocorrelation of the simulated radiation data changed with sun angle and elevation grid spacing. An analytical formula that describes the behavior of the variance as a function of optical depth, sun angle, and mean terrain slope can be developed by considering direct solar radiation variability on a constant-slope terrain which has a uniform albedo and a uniform distribution of slopes. The decrease in mean slope and the increase in slope and autocorrelation is attributed to a loss of some of the shorter-wavelength terrain features at coarser grid spacings.

Dubayah, Ralph↗

The topographic distribution of annual incoming solar radiation in the Rio Grande River basin

We model the annual incoming solar radiation topoclimatology for the Rio Grande River basin in Colorado, U.S.A. Hourly pyranometer measurements are combined with satellite reflectance data and 30-m digital elevation models within a topographic solar radiation algorithm. Our results show that there is large spatial variability within the basin, even at an annual integration length, but the annual, basin-wide mean is close to that measured by the pyranometers. The variance within 16 sq km and 100 sq km regions is a linear function of the average slope in the region, suggesting a possible parameterization for sub-grid-cell variability.

Dubayah, R.↗

A comparison of cosmological hydrodynamic codes

We present a detailed comparison of the simulation results of various hydrodynamic codes. Starting with identical initial conditions based on the cold dark matter scenario for the growth of structure, with parameters h = 0.5 Omega = Omega(sub b) = 1, and sigma(sub 8) = 1, we integrate from redshift z = 20 to z = O to determine the physical state within a representative volume of size L(exp 3) where L = 64 h(exp -1) Mpc. Five indenpendent codes are compared: three of them Eulerian mesh-based and two variants of the smooth particle hydrodynamics 'SPH' Lagrangian approach. The Eulerian codes were run at N(exp 3) = (32(exp 3), 64(exp 3), 128(exp 3), and 256(exp 3)) cells, the SPH codes at N(exp 3) = 32(exp 3) and 64(exp 3) particles. Results were then rebinned to a 16(exp 3) grid with the exception that the rebinned data should converge, by all techniques, to a common and correct result as N approaches infinity. We find that global averages of various physical quantities do, as expected, tend to converge in the rebinned model, but that uncertainites in even primitive quantities such as (T), (rho(exp 2))(exp 1/2) persists at the 3%-17% level achieve comparable and satisfactory accuracy for comparable computer time in their treatment of the high-density, high-temeprature regions as measured in the rebinned data; the variance among the five codes (at highest resolution) for the mean temperature (as weighted by rho(exp 2) is only 4.5%. Examined at high resolution we suspect that the density resolution is better in the SPH codes and the thermal accuracy in low-density regions better in the Eulerian codes. In the low-density, low-temperature regions the SPH codes have poor accuracy due to statiscal effects, and the Jameson code gives the temperatures which are too high, due to overuse of artificial viscosity in these high Mach number regions. Overall the comparison allows us to better estimate errors; it points to ways of improving this current generation ofhydrodynamic codes and of suiting their use to problems which exploit their best individual features.

Kang, Hyesung↗

Obliquity Driven Climate Change in Mars' Recent Past

We use the NASA/Ames grid Mars general circulation model with an updated radiation code and cloud nlicrophysics scheme. To speed up the simulations, we run the model at fairly coarse resolution (7.5" latitude x 22.5" longitude). Radiation Code Fluxes and heating rates are calculated from a radiation code based on the two-stream solution to radiative transfer that fully accounts for multiple scattering in the presence of gaseous absorp- tion. The model has 12 spectral intervals. Dust and water ice scattering properties are included. For dust, we use the Ockert-Bell [9] values in the visible, and Forget [IO] values in the infrared. For ice, we can either compute them online as the cloud evolves, or we can specify them. Gaseous opacities for water vapor and CO2 are calculated from correlated k-distributions taken from full line-by-line models. Cloud Microphysics Our cloud scheme is based on momentlorder scheme in which the mass mixing ratio and number density of the cloud ensemble are the advected species. From these we obtain a mean particle size and an estimate or the particle size distribution assuming a variance) which we then divide into 8 bins. Cloud microphysics is performed in each of these bins and includes nucleation, condensation, and gravitational settling. Dust is treated as a tracer and serves as condensation nuclei. The altered size distribution is then converted back into a mean size, a mixing ratio, and a particle number density.

Haberle, R. M.↗

DEEPEN Global Standardized Categorical Exploration Datasets for Magmatic Plays

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. As part of the development of the DEEPEN 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology for magmatic plays (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical), weights needed to be developed for use in the weighted sum of the different favorability index models produced from geoscientific exploration datasets. This was done using two different approaches: one based on expert opinions, and one based on statistical learning. This GDR submission includes the datasets used to produce the statistical learning-based weights. While expert opinions allow us to include more nuanced information in the weights, expert opinions are subject to human bias. Data-centric or statistical approaches help to overcome these potential human biases by focusing on and drawing conclusions from the data alone. The drawback is that, to apply these types of approaches, a dataset is needed. Therefore, we attempted to build comprehensive standardized datasets mapping anomalies in each exploration dataset to each component of each play. This data was gathered through a literature review focused on magmatic hydrothermal plays along with well-characterized areas where superhot or supercritical conditions are thought to exist. Datasets were assembled for all three play types, but the hydrothermal dataset is the least complete due to its relatively low priority. For each known or assumed resource, the dataset states what anomaly in each exploration dataset is associated with each component of the system. The data is only a semi-quantitative, where values are either high, medium, or low, relative to background levels. In addition, the dataset has significant gaps, as not every possible exploration dataset has been collected and analyzed at every known or suspected geothermal resource area, in the context of all possible play types. The following training sites were used to assemble this dataset: - Conventional magmatic hydrothermal: Akutan (from AK PFA), Oregon Cascades PFA, Glass Buttes OR, Mauna Kea (from HI PFA), Lanai (from HI PFA), Mt St Helens Shear Zone (from WA PFA), Wind River Valley (From WA PFA), Mount Baker (from WA PFA). - Superhot EGS: Newberry (EGS demonstration project), Coso (EGS demonstration project), Geysers (EGS demonstration project), Eastern Snake River Plain (EGS demonstration project), Utah FORGE, Larderello, Kakkonda, Taupo Volcanic Zone, Acoculco, Krafla. - Supercritical: Coso, Geysers, Salton Sea, Larderello, Los Humeros, Taupo Volcanic Zone, Krafla, Reyjanes, Hengill. **Disclaimer: Treat the supercritical fluid anomalies with skepticism. They are based on assumptions due to the general lack of confirmed supercritical fluid encounters and samples at the sites included in this dataset, at the time of assembling the dataset. The main assumption was that the supercritical fluid in a given geothermal system has shared properties with the hydrothermal fluid, which may not be the case in reality. Once the datasets were assembled, principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to each. PCA is an unsupervised statistical learning technique, meaning that labels are not required on the data, that summarized the directions of variance in the data. This approach was chosen because our labels are not certain, i.e., we do not know with 100% confidence that superhot resources exist at all the assumed positive areas. We also do not have data for any known non-geothermal areas, meaning that it would be challenging to apply a supervised learning technique. In order to generate weights from the PCA, an analysis of the PCA loading values was conducted. PCA loading values represent how much a feature is contributing to each principal component, and therefore the overall variance in the data.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Leveraging Machine Learning Capabilities for the Characterization of Irradiated Uranium: A Case Study of Analysis Methods for Nuclear Safeguards and Nuclear Forensics

Nondestructively determining the initial enrichment of irradiated uranium is a complex and laborious multivariable problem due to the presence of fission products. This work demonstrates the capabilities of machine learning to analyze gamma-ray spectral data to determine initial enrichment without knowledge of the decay time of the sample. The approach developed is agnostic to the particular scenario and is applicable to a wide variety of applications in nuclear forensics and nuclear safeguards. We irradiated 5 mg uranium standard reference materials at discrete enrichment values ranging from 0.02% to 97% 235 U (weight percent) in UT Austin’s Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory TRIGA Mark II 1.1 MW research reactor, allowed each to decay for 8 hours, and then measured each sample via gamma-ray spectrometry for 50 hours post-irradiation yielding 1,400 individual gamma-ray spectra discretized into 8,192 energy bins. We then trained decision trees models to analyze individual gamma-ray spectra and estimate the associated initial enrichment without knowledge of the time since end of irradiation. We evaluated the performance of the models with a reserved test set not used for training or calibrating the model. A decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 2.3% (weight percent 235 U). Next, we implemented a principal component analysis pre-processing routine of the gamma-ray spectrometry data to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset from 8,192 channels in the spectrum to 10 principal components while retaining over 99% of the inherent variance in the data. Decision tree models constructed with these data demonstrated decreased mean absolute error in enrichment determination, reduced computational time, and decreased complexity. A single decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 0.05% (weight percent 235 U). Furthermore, we analyzed these models with learning curves to ensure that overfitting did not occur. The capabilities provided by these models can be naturally extended to other application-focused measurements in the fields of nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and nuclear non-proliferation.

Drescher, Adam↗