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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Thermodynamic Effects on Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Isolated Deep Convection Over the US: A Case Study

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection (IDC) significantly influence local weather conditions and the hydrological cycle across the United States. Their future changes under warming is critical to the society. However, the exact impacts of thermodynamic environmental changes on them are difficult to resolve using climate model simulations which integrate both dynamic and thermodynamic factors. This study explores a theoretical modeling approach to isolate environmental thermodynamic effects on their future changes through a case study. For a 50-day period during the 2020 summer, a pair of convection-permitting model simulations indicate contrasting changes in MCSs and IDC between inland and coastal regions under pseudo global warming. Driven by the thermodynamic environments of these simulations, a single-column parcel model indicates a decrease in the frequency of IDC occurrences, along with increases in duration and precipitation amount under warming, attributable to rising most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), convective inhibition (MUCIN), and precipitable water (PW). A multi-column parcel model reveals contrasting changes in the frequency and mean area of MCSs between inland and coastal regions, underscoring the increase in mean MUCIN over inland regions and increases in mean MUCAPE and PW over coastal regions. The increase in mean MCS area over inland regions is linked to the interplay between accelerated gust fronts and enhanced subsidence strength, which is further traced to the unchanged mean MUCIN but increased mean MUCAPE in large-scale environments. In conclusion, these case study results suggest a major role of thermodynamic environmental changes in controlling characteristics of MCSs and IDC under warming.

Mesoscale convective system↗
DOE OSTI2023

Local and utility-wide cost allocations for a more equitable wildfire-resilient distribution grid

Climate-induced extreme weather conditions make electricity infrastructure more vulnerable. They increase the risk of power-line-ignited wildfires which can, in turn, jeopardize electric power delivery. Here, leveraging machine learning, we show that lower-income communities in California not only have lower fractions of power distribution lines undergrounded, but overhead lines and poles in their neighbourhoods are also more vulnerable to wildfires. Should they bear the cost of undergrounding fire-prone lines themselves, they would have to pay a disproportionately higher cost per household. We propose a cost allocation scheme with an income threshold below which the cost is borne by utility-wide ratepayers and above which the cost is borne locally. This scheme can not only minimize the average of undergrounding costs per household as a share of income, but also homogenize such cost–income ratios across communities. Furthermore, our research demonstrates the opportunity to appropriately integrate existing policies to make electricity infrastructure affordable, equitable and reliable amidst climate change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wildfire and power grid nexus in a changing climate

Global wildfire events have had increasingly severe impacts in recent years, particularly in the western USA, driven by extreme fire-weather conditions, fuel accumulation and multiple ignition sources. Wildfires sparked by power lines tend to be larger and more destructive, as they often occur during high winds, which accelerate the spread of fires. Moreover, efforts to contain wildfires frequently result in power outages, causing considerable economic disruption. Here, in this Review, we examine wildfire risks related to power-line-induced ignitions, infrastructure damage, climate-induced environmental impacts, grid operational risks, real-time grid management risks, vegetation management risks, and financial and funding risks in the context of a changing climate and their interdependence with power grid infrastructures. We then explore the resilience of power grids under wildfire threats, looking at risk analysis, prediction and mitigation strategies. The Review also shares practical insights and experiences in the USA to inform researchers, policymakers and industry professionals.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Low-cost desalination of seawater and hypersaline brine using nanophotonics enhanced solar energy membrane distillation

A stand-alone small-scale nanophotonics enhanced solar membrane distillation (NESMD) testbed was designed, developed, and tested for desalinating seawater and high salinity feedwaters. This NESMD system can take almost any source water and turn it into clean water with sunlight as the only energy source. The NESMD technology applies nanophotonic coating materials on a commercial hydrophobic polypropylene support of a polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) membrane surface. The photothermal coating serves as a solar thermal collector, absorbs solar energy, and generates highly localized heat on the membrane, while the rest of the membrane performs membrane distillation functions. The presented NESMD system is equipped with an internal heat recovery system with no need for external electricity and no additional water for cooling. The NESMD testbed is installed and tested at Rice University campus (29.7174° N, 95.4018° W). In this study, real seawater from Galveston Bay, Texas, U.S. and high salinity simulated feedwaters (total dissolved solids (TDS) of 113 200–200 000 PPM) have been tested for long-term testing under the weather conditions of Houston, Texas. Here, the field testing results showed stable desalination performance in consecutive 5–8 hour operation cycles, with a TDS removal of ≥99.5% in all experiments. An average daily membrane flux of ≥0.75 L m –2 h –1 was achieved at a solar intensity close to 1 kW m –2 without an external heat exchanger. Further investigations and improvements are required to enhance the performance of the reactor since it is still a new promising technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

SYMBA: An end-to-end VLBI synthetic data generation pipeline

Realistic synthetic observations of theoretical source models are essential for our understanding of real observational data. In using synthetic data, one can verify the extent to which source parameters can be recovered and evaluate how various data corruption effects can be calibrated. These studies are the most important when proposing observations of new sources, in the characterization of the capabilities of new or upgraded instruments, and when verifying model-based theoretical predictions in a direct comparison with observational data. We present the SYnthetic Measurement creator for long Baseline Arrays (SYMBA), a novel synthetic data generation pipeline for Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations. SYMBA takes into account several realistic atmospheric, instrumental, and calibration effects. Here, we used SYMBA to create synthetic observations for the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), a millimetre VLBI array, which has recently captured the first image of a black hole shadow. After testing SYMBA with simple source and corruption models, we study the importance of including all corruption and calibration effects, compared to the addition of thermal noise only. Using synthetic data based on two example general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) model images of M 87, we performed case studies to assess the image quality that can be obtained with the current and future EHT array for different weather conditions. Our synthetic observations show that the effects of atmospheric and instrumental corruptions on the measured visibilities are significant. Despite these effects, we demonstrate how the overall structure of our GRMHD source models can be recovered robustly with the EHT2017 array after performing calibration steps, which include fringe fitting, a priori amplitude and network calibration, and self-calibration. With the planned addition of new stations to the EHT array in the coming years, images could be reconstructed with higher angular resolution and dynamic range. In our case study, these improvements allowed for a distinction between a thermal and a non-thermal GRMHD model based on salient features in reconstructed images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Magnetohydrodynamic simulations preliminarily predict the habitability and radio emission of TRAPPIST-1e

TRAPPIST-1e, an Earth-sized exoplanet in the habitable zone of the nearby M dwarf TRAPPIST-1, may experience magnetospheric responses that vary with stellar space weather, which could potentially influence both its habitability and radio emissions. Our objective is to investigate how different Earth-like magnetospheric configurations of TRAPPIST-1e – specifically variations in dipolar magnetic field strength and axial tilt – respond to diverse stellar space weather conditions, including events analogous to coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and to assess their implications for potential habitability and expected radio emissions. We conducted 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the TRAPPIST-1e system using the PLUTO code in spherical coordinates. The planetary magnetic field was modelled as dipolar, with equatorial strengths from Earth-like to several times stronger. The dipole axis spans a representative range of axial tilts. We investigate four stellar wind environments, from sub-Alfvénic flow to CME-like disturbances. Planetary shielding was quantified based on the magnetopause standoff distance, and radio powers were estimated via empirical scaling laws. Our simulations show that both shielding and radio power depend strongly on the magnetic configuration. Stronger fields increase protection, while larger tilts reduce it. Radio power increases with both field strength and tilt across all wind regimes. An Earth-like magnetic field can provide effective shielding even under intense CMEs, whereas high tilts require stronger fields. Predicted radio powers reach ~10 20 erg s −1 during CMEs, making bursts from close-in, magnetised planets more detectable. However, for TRAPPIST-1e, the maximum cyclotron frequency lies below the Earth’s ionospheric cutoff (~10 MHz), making ground-based detection currently infeasible.

Sun: magnetic fields↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are there differences in public interest toward automated vehicles’ ownership in burdened and non-burdened communities?

This study examines differences in public interest toward automated vehicle (AV) adoption between burdened communities (BCs) and non-burdened communities (non-BCs). The study uniquely captures travel behavior by integrating the census tract-level community indicators with the 2017–2019 Puget Sound Household Travel Survey. Public interest in AV ownership is modeled as a five-level ordered outcome, ranging from ‘Not interested at all’ to ‘Very interested.’ Segmented ordered logit models and Random Forest are used to identify key drivers and barriers to AV adoption across BCs and non-BCs. Results show that longer commute times, lack of personal vehicles, and concerns about AV performance in adverse weather conditions are significantly associated with higher interest levels toward owning AVs in BCs. In conclusion, the findings offer insights for developing targeted policies to promote AV adoption and address differences between BCs and non-BCs in accessing emerging transportation technologies.

Automated vehicles↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermally anisotropic building envelope for thermal management: finite element model calibration using field evaluation data

The thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) is an active building envelope that redistributes thermal loads in response to weather conditions and building energy demand. Conductive layers throughout the TABE distribute low-grade heat among hydronic loops, altering heat flow direction and intensity. Finite element models of TABE roof and wall panels were developed and calibrated using field evaluation data. The calibration results showed that heat flux differences between the experimental data and finite element models averaged –0.42% and 3.57%, with a maximum mean square error of 1.78 and 3.96 for roof and wall panels, respectively. A reduction in heat flux from the environment to the building living space over the entire testing period (weeks in July/August) was found to be 85% for roof panels and 335% (load reversed) for wall panels. Finally, these results indicate TABE can effectively harness low-grade thermal energy sources to achieve high energy efficiency and promote demand-side management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupling Shared E-scooters and Public Transit: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

The integration of shared e-scooters with public transit is a promising solution for urban mobility's first/last-mile challenge. This study explores spatiotemporal factors influencing this integration, using 35-day e-scooter trip data from Chicago. Employing a random-effect negative binomial approach, we modeled the frequency of e-scooter trips to access/egress to/from bus stops and train stations. Results indicate that weather conditions, design features like intersection density, and multimodal network density significantly influence usage. The transit system characteristics such as service frequency have a positive effect on the integration of e-scooters and trains while a similar effect for bus and e-scooter integration was not significant. Furthermore, safety-related variables such as accident and crime rates as well as demographic characteristics were also revealed to be significant factors in our study. These findings offer vital insights to urban planners and policymakers for infrastructure, safety enhancements, and interventions to encourage efficient e-scooter-public transit integration.

Chicago↗
DOE OSTI2019

Climate change impacts the spread potential of wheat stem rust, a significant crop disease

Abstract Long range atmospheric transport is an important pathway for the spread of plant pathogens, such as rust fungi which can devastate cereal crop health and food security worldwide. In recent years, serious concern has been caused by the evolution of new virulent races of Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici , a pathogen causing wheat stem rust that can result in close to 100% yield losses on susceptible wheat cultivars in favourable weather conditions. We applied an Earth system model to compare the suitability of the current climate and a business-as-usual climate scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2100 for wheat stem rust. Although there are large uncertainties in modelling changes in disease spread, we focus in this paper on the changes which are likely to be robust to model assumptions. We show that the warmer climate with lower relative humidity and enhanced turbulence will lead to ∼40% increase in the urediniospore emitting potential of an infected field as global average. The main predicted changes in the atmospheric long-range transport include reduced connections between Europe, Africa and South Asia, and increased frequency of spores crossing the mid-latitude oceans. Due to reduction in subfreezing conditions, the overwintering areas of the fungus will expand. On the other hand, projected drier conditions will reduce substantially the probability of an infection starting from deposited spores, except in irrigated fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?

Abstract Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermally unstable roosts influence winter torpor patterns in a threatened bat species

Abstract Many hibernating bats in thermally stable, subterranean roosts have experienced precipitous declines from white-nose syndrome (WNS). However, some WNS-affected species also use thermally unstable roosts during winter that may impact their torpor patterns and WNS susceptibility. From November to March 2017–19, we used temperature-sensitive transmitters to document winter torpor patterns of tricolored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) using thermally unstable roosts in the upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina. Daily mean roost temperature was 12.9 ± 4.9°C SD in bridges and 11.0 ± 4.6°C in accessible cavities with daily fluctuations of 4.8 ± 2°C in bridges and 4.0 ± 1.9°C in accessible cavities and maximum fluctuations of 13.8 and 10.5°C, respectively. Mean torpor bout duration was 2.7 ± 2.8 days and was negatively related to ambient temperature and positively related to precipitation. Bats maintained non-random arousal patterns focused near dusk and were active on 33.6% of tracked days. Fifty-one percent of arousals contained passive rewarming. Normothermic bout duration, general activity and activity away from the roost were positively related to ambient temperature, and activity away from the roost was negatively related to barometric pressure. Our results suggest ambient weather conditions influence winter torpor patterns of tricolored bats using thermally unstable roosts. Short torpor bout durations and potential nighttime foraging during winter by tricolored bats in thermally unstable roosts contrasts with behaviors of tricolored bats in thermally stable roosts. Therefore, tricolored bat using thermally unstable roosts may be less susceptible to WNS. More broadly, these results highlight the importance of understanding the effect of roost thermal stability on winter torpor patterns and the physiological flexibility of broadly distributed hibernating species.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Ledger Technology for Fault Tolerant Distribution Grid Operations

This paper explores the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) to improve fault-tolerant grid operations by leveraging its core features as an immutable, decentralized ledger, a distributed, consensus-based agreement process, and a distributed state-replication engine. Distribution power systems deliver electricity to millions of customers; however, they are susceptible to various threats that can result in customer interruptions. These include faults caused by adverse weather conditions, natural disasters, vegetation growth, equipment failure, and malicious attacks. To minimize the effects of these faults, fault-handling approaches rely on network knowledge to isolate affected areas and reconnect unaffected areas, reducing the number of affected customers while maintaining safety. Here, we present a trusted data-sharing architecture that enables independent, distributed actors to reconstruct the pre-fault system state by enabling distributed resources to make appropriate decisions with limited network/system information. Although the process requires some data sharing between switch-delimited areas, the approach limits the amount of private information shared, preserving customers' privacy and business-sensitive information. We include three use cases that form a foundation for third parties to develop functional solutions that can eventually be deployed in the field. The gross error detection method used within switch-delimited areas can identify sensor errors and accurately detect circuit breaker states. The evaluation of possible reconnection while preserving data ownership resulted in a voltage magnitude difference smaller than 0.001% from the OpenDSS power flow solution that has full system knowledge, which is below the expected power flow tolerance. The approach offers a promising opportunity for improving fault-tolerant distribution grid operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Method for Estimating Time-Series PV Production Loss From Solar Tracking Failures

Solar tracking system failures can dramatically reduce photovoltaic (PV) system energy output through suboptimal irradiance capture and self-shading loss. Detecting tracker failures is not always straightforward; unlike other common PV system failures like inverter outages and blown fuses which take portions of a system completely offline, tracker failures only partially reduce output power and can go unnoticed as a result. Additionally, tracker failures can take one of several forms, each with their own loss characteristics. Here we present two methods of detecting tracker failure events from time-series production data and a method for estimating the associated production loss. Compared with existing detection methods, the proposed power-based detection method showed 0-17% reductions in Type I error rate depending on weather conditions. Here, the loss model estimated production loss with low error (mean bias error = -2.3 %, root-mean-squared error = 6%) in a rudimentary validation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mobile Energy Storage Systems: A Grid-Edge Technology to Enhance Reliability and Resilience

Increase in the number and frequency of widespread outages in recent years has been directly linked to drastic climate change necessitating better preparedness for outage mitigation. Severe weather conditions are experienced more frequently and on larger scales, challenging system operation and recovery time after an outage. In conclusion, the impact is more evident and concerning than before, considering the increased dependency on electricity in all aspects of our lives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivity based Preemptive Voltage Monitoring in Unbalanced Distribution Networks

With increasing penetration of renewable energy and active consumers, control and management of power distribution networks has become challenging. Renewable energy sources can cause random voltage fluctuations as their output power depends on weather conditions. Conventional voltage control schemes such as tap changers and capacitor banks lack the foresight required to quickly alleviate voltage violations. Thus, there is an urgent need for effective approaches for predicting and mitigating voltage violations as a result of random fluctuations in power injections. This work proposes a novel voltage monitoring approach based on low-complexity, data-driven probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis. The usefulness of this work is not only in predicting voltage violations in unbalanced distribution grids, but also in opening up the door for optimal voltage control. Using system data and forecasts, the proposed approach predicts the distribution of system node voltages which is then used to to identify nodes that may violate the nominal operational limits with high probability. The method is tested on the IEEE 37 node distribution system considering integrated distributed solar energy sources. The method is validated against the classic load flow based method and offers over 95% accuracy in predicting voltage violations.

Abujubbeh, Mohammad↗