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Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives

We reviewed the present studies on the vulnerability and resilience of the energy ecosystem (most parts of the energy ecosystem), considering extreme climate events. This study revealed that the increased interactions formed during the transformation of the energy landscape into an ecosystem could notably increase the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure. Such complex ecosystem cannot be assessed using the present state of the art models used by the energy system modelers. Therefore, this study introduces a novel analogy known as the COVID analogy to understand the propagation of disruption within and beyond the energy ecosystem and organized the present state of the art based on the COVID analogy. The analogy helps to categorize the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure into three stages. The study revealed that although there are many publications covering the vulnerability and resilience of the energy infrastructure, considering extreme climate events, the majority are focused on the direct impact of extreme climate on the energy ecosystem. In addition, most of the studies do not consider the impact of future climate variations during this assessment. The propagation of disruptions was assessed mainly for wildfires and hurricanes. Further, there is a clear research gap in considering vulnerability assessment for interconnected energy infrastructure. Here, the transformation of energy systems into a complex ecosystem notably increases the complexity, making it difficult to assess vulnerability and resilience. A shift from a centralized to decentralized modeling architecture could be beneficial when considering the complexities brought by that transformation. Hybrid models consisting of both physical and data-driven machine learning techniques could also be beneficial in this context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A VARI-Based Relative Greenness from MODIS Data for Computing the Fire Potential Index

The Fire Potential Index (FPI) relies on relative greenness (RG) estimates from remote sensing data. The Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI), derived from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery is currently used to calculate RG operationally. Here we evaluated an alternate measure of RG using the Visible Atmospheric Resistant Index (VARI) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data. VARI was chosen because it has previously been shown to have the strongest relationship with Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) out of a wide selection of MODIS-derived indices in southern California shrublands. To compare MODIS-based NDVI-FPI and VARI-FPI, RG was calculated from a 6-year time series of MODIS composites and validated against in-situ observations of LFM as a surrogate for vegetation greenness. RG from both indices was then compared in terms of its performance for computing the FPI using historical wildfire data. Computed RG values were regressed against ground-sampled LFM at 14 sites within Los Angeles County. The results indicate the VARI-based RG consistently shows a stronger relationship with observed LFM than NDVI-based RG. With an average R2 of 0.727 compared to a value of only 0.622 for NDVI-RG, VARI-RG showed stronger relationships at 13 out of 14 sites. Based on these results, daily FPI maps were computed for the years 2001 through 2005 using both NDVI-RG and VARI-RG. These were then validated against 12,490 fire detections from the MODIS active fire product using logistic regression. Deviance of the logistic regression model was 408.8 for NDVI-FPI and 176.2 for VARI-FPI. The c-index was found to be 0.69 and 0.78, respectively. The results show that VARI-FP outperforms NDVI-FPI in distinguishing between fire and no-fire events for historical wildfire data in southern California for the given time period.

Schneider, P.↗

Joint Assimilation of CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM, AOD, NH4, PAN, and HNO3 in Support of the Tropospheric Regional Atmospheric Composition and Emissions Reanalysis (2005 - 2024) (TRACER-I)

NASA Ames Research Center is collaborating with the NOAA Chemical Systems Laboratory (NOAA/CSL), the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the NASA Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research to prepare a 20-year Tropospheric Regional Atmospheric Composition and Emissions Reanalysis (2005 – 2024) (TRACER-I) for the continental United States during the summer ozone (O3) and wildfire seasons (April to October). TRACER-I will be a regional complement to JPL’s global Tropospheric Chemistry Reanalyses II and III. We will use WRF-Chem/DART with NOAA/CSL’s WRF-Chem setup at 12 km x 12 km horizontal resolution, 51 vertical levels, and 30 ensemble members. We will assimilate: (i) conventional meteorological observations; (ii) EPA’s Air Quality System in situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter (PM) with diameters less than 10 µm (PM10), and PM with diameters less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5); and (iii) MOPITT, MODIS, OMI, TROPOMI, GOME-2a, MLS, TES, SCIAMACHY, CrIS, and TEMPO total/partial column and/or profile retrievals of CO, O3, NO2, SO2, aerosol optical depth (AOD), formaldehyde (HCHO), ammonia (NH4), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), and/or nitric acid (HNO3) with 3-hr cycling. We will present an overview of this project, its status, and available results (likely the analysis of sensitivity experiment results from the assimilation/emissions estimation system).

data assimilation↗

Chapter 10 - Remote Sensing Measurements of Aerosol Properties

Satellite instruments have proven especially capable at monitoring the quantity of airborne particles in columns of atmosphere, globally. This chapter describes the principles of satellite measurements and retrieval algorithms, and surveys current instruments and their capabilities. We outline the issues associated with retrieval algorithms, such as surface characterization and aerosol proximity to clouds, and the challenges with interpretation of the results. The relationship between measured aerosol properties and climate-relevant aerosol properties simulated in models is outlined, as well as how measurements are used to evaluate models. Most space-based aerosol instruments are passive sensors that measure reflected sunlight at multiple wavelengths, some at multiple viewing angles. A few are active sensors that send out their own laser light and measure the returned signal. Except when clouds are present, the excess amount of light scattered back to space, beyond that expected from the surface and atmospheric gas, is attributed to aerosol. Satellite measurements are used in many ways in aerosol research. They often provide the only method for monitoring hazardous phenomena such as major wildfire and volcanic eruption plumes, especially in remote areas. Stable, long-term, near-global-scale satellite data records make it possible to identify regional and global aerosol trends. Aerosol radiative effects on climate can be quantified on a near-global scale and used to estimate the strength of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions as well as to evaluate climate model simulations of these interactions. Aerosol-type mapping from satellite imagery is helpful for source attribution, model validation, and to constrain particle light-absorption properties that are essential for radiative forcing calculations. The range of aerosol properties retrieved from satellite observations has grown considerably since the first global estimates of aerosol optical depth (τ a) over ocean were made in the late 1970s. Methods for retrieving particle size and light-absorption properties were explored in the 1990s using multispectral, multi-angle observations, and polarization in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Sensitivity to particle light absorption, primarily from black or brown carbon content, improved with the inclusion of UV channels, and sensitivity to very thin aerosol layers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was advanced with the use of limb-sounding instruments and active sensors. There are limitations to every measurement technique, including satellite aerosol remote sensing. For wide-swath, passive instruments, aerosol retrievals near clouds can present substantial challenges as far as 15 km away due to cloud-scattered light contaminating the signal. In nearly all cases, retrievals over bright snow and ice surfaces are precluded because surface reflectance uncertainties can overwhelm the aerosol signal. Similarly, meteorological cloud is identified and masked out where possible. Data from passive sensors also lack vertical resolution except those that view toward the limb or where multi-angle imagery is acquired over plumes from wildfires, erupting volcanoes, and wind-blown dust. Yet, passive sensors provide vastly more coverage than the active instruments that mitigate these issues. Particle microphysical information is qualitative from all remote sensing techniques, relying on proxies to infer particle composition, hygroscopicity, and the amount of light-absorbing material. Further, particles smaller than about 200 nm diameter cannot be distinguished from atmospheric gas molecules with remote sensing, which hinders studies of cloud condensation nuclei and their effects on clouds. Most satellite instruments dedicated to aerosol observations are in low-Earth, near-polar, sun-synchronous orbits, which means they cross the equator at the same local time each day. Most are set on cycles that repeat approximately every 16 days, which makes it difficult to monitor aerosol evolution locally. Geostationary satellites make it possible to observe changes occurring from minutes to hours over regions up to 8000 km in size, but lack coverage of high latitudes, and often provide more limited constraints on aerosol properties. Ground-truth data are vital for satellite aerosol-retrieval validation. The AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) of sun photometers was created in 1993 and has become an established global network of over 350 instruments for validating satellite measurements. The network, as well as global networks of ground-based lidars, solar flux radiometers and other sun photometers, are widely used for evaluating global satellite retrievals and model simulations. NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) program beginning in 1999 led to improvements in reliability, spatial resolution, and spectral resolution (and hence, to improved particle size discrimination and light absorption properties). Satellite payloads include advanced broad-swath and multi-angle imagers, along with the first space-based active sensor focused largely on long-term aerosol monitoring. Since about 2002, Europe's SENTINEL and operational meteorological satellite fleets are also providing sustained aerosol observations, with planned continuation until at least 2030. Satellite remote sensing instruments offer valuable data for evaluating aerosol representations in global climate models. They have been used to assess aerosol optical and physical properties, trends and distributions, and are applied increasingly as direct model constraints in data assimilation to create global aerosol reanalysis products. Aerosol optical depth is the most common quantity adopted for routine model evaluation, including multiwavelength data to loosely constrain particle-size distributions. These evaluations of multiple models have revealed general biases in their regional aerosol amounts and seasonal patterns of transport and removal. Although satellite measurements have near-global coverage, substantial errors can be introduced into the model observation comparison unless attention is paid to spatial and temporal collocation, cloud screening, subgrid-scale variability, and measurement uncertainties that vary with retrieval conditions.

aerosol properties↗

Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties and Evolution, from Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging

Emitted smoke composition is determined by properties of the biomass burning source and ambient ecosystem. However, conditions that mediate the partitioning of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) formation, as well as the spatial and temporal factors that drive particle evolution, are not understood adequately for many climate and air-quality related modeling applications. In situ observations provide considerable detail about aerosol microphysical and chemical properties, although sampling is extremely limited. Satellites offer the frequent global coverage that would allow for statistical characterization of emitted and evolved smoke, but generally lack microphysical detail. However, once properly validated, data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System’s Multi-Angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument can create at least a partial picture of smoke particle properties and plume evolution. We use in situ data from the Department of Energy’s Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) field campaign to assess the strengths and limitations of smoke particle retrieval results from the MISR Research Aerosol (RA) retrieval algorithm. We then use MISR to characterize wildfire smoke particle properties and to identify the relevant aging factors in several cases, to the extent possible. The RA successfully maps qualitative changes in effective particle size, light absorption, and its spectral dependence, when compared to in situ observations. By observing the entire plume uniformly, the satellite data can be interpreted in terms of smoke plume evolution, including size-selective deposition, new-particle formation, and locations within the plume where BC or BrC dominates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties and Evolution, from Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging

Emitted smoke composition is determined by properties of the biomass burning source and ambient ecosystem. However, conditions that mediate the partitioning of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) formation, as well as the spatial and temporal factors that drive particle evolution, are not understood adequately for many climate and air-quality related modeling applications. In situ observations provide considerable detail about aerosol microphysical and chemical properties, although sampling is extremely limited. Satellites offer the frequent global coverage that would allow for statistical characterization of emitted and evolved smoke, but generally lack microphysical detail. However, once properly validated, data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System’s Multi-Angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument can create at least a partial picture of smoke particle properties and plume evolution. We use in situ data from the Department of Energy’s Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) field campaign to assess the strengths and limitations of smoke particle retrieval results from the MISR Research Aerosol (RA) retrieval algorithm. We then use MISR to characterize wildfire smoke particle properties and to identify the relevant aging factors in several cases, to the extent possible. The RA successfully maps qualitative changes in effective particle size, light absorption, and its spectral dependence, when compared to in situ observations. By observing the entire plume uniformly, the satellite data can be interpreted in terms of smoke plume evolution, including size-selective deposition, new-particle formation, and locations within the plume where BC or BrC dominates.

Noyes, Katherine Junghenn↗

Systemic immunological responses are dependent on sex and ovarian hormone presence following acute inhaled woodsmoke exposure

Background: Rural regions of the western United States have experienced a noticeable surge in both the frequency and severity of acute wildfire events, which brings significant challenges to both public safety and environmental conservation efforts, with impacts felt globally. Identifying factors contributing to immune dysfunction, including endocrinological phenotypes, is essential to understanding how hormones may influence toxicological susceptibility. Methods: This exploratory study utilized male and female C57BL/6 mice as in vivo models to investigate distinct responses to acute woodsmoke (WS) exposure with a focus on sex-based differences. In a second set of investigations, two groups were established within the female mouse cohort. In one group, mice experienced ovariectomy (OVX) to simulate an ovarian hormone-deficient state similar to surgical menopause, while the other group received Sham surgery as controls, to investigate the mechanistic role of ovarian hormone presence in driving immune dysregulation following acute WS exposure. Each experimental cohort followed a consecutive 2-day protocol with daily 4-h exposure intervals under two conditions: control HEPA-filtered air (FA) and acute WS to simulate an acute wildfire episode. Results: Metals analysis of WS particulate matter (PM) revealed significantly increased levels of 63 Cu, 182 W, 208 Pb, and 238 U, compared to filtered air (FA) controls, providing insights into the specific metal components most impacted by the changing dynamics of wildfire occurrences in the region. Male and female mice exhibited diverse patterns in lung mRNA cytokine expression following WS exposure, with males showing downregulation and females displaying upregulation, notably for IL-1β, TNF-α, CXCL-1, CCL-5, TGF-β, and IL-6. After acute WS exposure, there were notable differences in the responses of macrophages, neutrophils, and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cytokines IL-10, IL-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α. Significant diverse alterations were observed in BAL cytokines, specifically IL-1β, IL-10, IL-6, and TNF-α, as well as in the populations of immune cells, such as macrophages and polymorphonuclear leukocytes, in both Sham and OVX mice, following acute WS exposure. These findings elucidated the profound influence of hormonal changes on inflammatory outcomes, delineating substantial sex-related differences in immune activation and revealing altered immune responses in OVX mice due to ovarian hormone deficiency. In addition, the flow cytometry analysis highlighted the complex interaction between OVX surgery, acute WS exposure, and their collective impact on immune cell populations within the hematopoietic bone marrow niche. Conclusions: In summary, both male and female mice, alongside females subjected to OVX and those who had sham surgery, exhibit significant variations in the expression of proinflammatory cytokines, chemokines, lung mRNA gene expression, and related functional networks linked to signaling pathways. These differences potentially act as mediators of sex-specific and hormonal influences in the systemic inflammatory response to acute WS exposure during a wildfire event. Understanding the regulatory roles of genes expressed differentially under environmental stressors holds considerable implications, aiding in identifying sex-specific therapeutic targets for addressing acute lung inflammation and injury.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of fire on chemical properties and respiration of boreal forest soils

We collected both organic-rich and sandy soil cores from 12 sites (site_location_and_texture.csv) within Wood Buffalo National Park, Alberta, Canada. Laboratory burns were conducted by exposing intact soil cores to 60 kW m^-2 in a mass loss calorimeter to simulate boreal forest crown fires in order to measure the effects of burning (temp_data.csv) on soil properties including pH, total C, and total nitrogen (N) (metadata.csv). We used 70-day soil incubations and two-pool exponential decay models to characterize the impacts of burning and burn-induced changes in soil properties on soil respiration (soil_moisture_at_end_of_incubation.csv; soil_mass_at_end_of_incubation.csv; respiration_data.csv). Laboratory burns successfully captured a range of soil temperatures that were realistic for natural wildfire events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gas-Phase Oxidation Mechanisms of Nitrogen-Containing Organic Compounds

Nitrogen-containing organic molecules play essential roles in nearly every aspect of chemistry. The importance of these species within gas-phase chemistry has increased in recent years, due to their emissions from wildfires, crude biofuels, ammonia combustion, and CO 2 capture facilities. However, there is a lack of detailed relevant mechanistic and kinetic studies of N-compounds, resulting in poor representation of these pathways within chemical models. In this report, we detail our exploration of the gas-phase oxidation mechanisms of pyrrole, imidazole, pyrrolidine, methylamine, and dimethylamine, done by employing multiplexed VUV photoionization mass spectrometry coupled with KinBot, a computational tool that automatically explores multi-well potential energy surfaces. Overall, we vastly expanded the known gas-phase oxidation mechanisms and chemical kinetics of these species. This work will improve the accuracy and completeness of atmospheric and combustion chemistry models, ultimately leading to better-informed decision-makers in the energy and environmental sectors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

AI/ML-Enhanced Wind Forecasts for Reducing Uncertainty in Prescribed Fire Planning

Prescribed fire is a vital tool for ecosystem management and wildfire risk reduction but its escalation is constrained by overly conservative burn windows because of uncertainties, for instance, in wind forecasts. This review describes the state of the art in weather product use by fire/smoke models and identifies three priority research gaps that artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) is well positioned to address: (1) spatial and temporal downscaling to meter-scale, sub-hourly wind fields; (2) bias correction for systematic model errors in complex terrain; and (3) robust uncertainty quantification to inform ensemble-based simulations. Emerging AI/ML techniques offer promising frameworks to address all three challenges. By providing high-resolution, bias-corrected, and probabilistic wind fields, AI/ML-enhanced forecasts will allow for expanded burn windows, improved ignition strategy design and a reduced reliance on expert intuition, especially when a prescribed fire is introduced into new areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Systematically tracking the hourly progression of large wildfires using GOES satellite observations

Abstract. In the western United States, prolonged drought, a warming climate, and historical fuel buildup have contributed to larger and more intense wildfires as well as to longer fire seasons. As these costly wildfires become more common, new tools and methods are essential for improving our understanding of the evolution of fires and how extreme weather conditions, including heat waves, windstorms, droughts, and varying levels of active-fire suppression, influence fire spread. Here, we develop the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)-Observed Fire Event Representation (GOFER) algorithm to derive the hourly fire progression of large wildfires and create a product of hourly fire perimeters, active-fire lines, and fire spread rates. Using GOES-East and GOES-West geostationary satellite detections of active fires, we test the GOFER algorithm on 28 large wildfires in California from 2019 to 2021. The GOFER algorithm includes parameter optimizations for defining the burned-to-unburned boundary and correcting for the parallax effect from elevated terrain. We evaluate GOFER perimeters using 12 h data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)-derived Fire Event Data Suite (FEDS) and final fire perimeters from the California's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP). Although the GOES imagery used to derive GOFER has a coarser resolution (2 km at the Equator), the final fire perimeters from GOFER correspond reasonably well to those obtained from FRAP, with a mean Intersection-over-Union (IoU) of 0.77, in comparison to 0.83 between FEDS and FRAP; the IoU indicates the area of overlap over the area of the union relative to the reference perimeters, in which 0 is no agreement and 1 is perfect agreement. GOFER fills a key temporal gap present in other fire tracking products that rely on low-Earth-orbit imagery, where perimeters are available at intervals of 12 h or longer or at ad hoc intervals from aircraft overflights. This is particularly relevant when a fire spreads rapidly, such as at maximum hourly spread rates of over 5 km h−1. Our GOFER algorithm for deriving the hourly fire progression using GOES can be applied to large wildfires across North and South America and reveals considerable variability in the rates of fire spread on diurnal timescales. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8327264, Liu et al., 2023).

Geology↗

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $\$$/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Air quality impact of the Northern California Camp Fire of November 2018

The Northern California Camp Fire that took place in November 2018 was one of the most damaging environmental events in California history. Here, we analyze ground-based station observations of airborne particulate matter that has a diameter <2.5 µm (PM 2.5 ) across Northern California and conduct numerical simulations of the Camp Fire using the Weather Research and Forecasting model online coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Simulations are evaluated against ground-based observations of PM 2.5 , black carbon, and meteorology, as well as satellite measurements, such as Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aerosol layer height and aerosol index. The Camp Fire led to an increase in Bay Area PM 2.5 to over 50 µg m –3 for nearly 2 weeks, with localized peaks exceeding 300 µg m –3 . Using the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) high-resolution fire detection products, the simulations reproduce the magnitude and evolution of surface PM 2.5 concentrations, especially downwind of the wildfire. The overall spatial patterns of simulated aerosol plumes and their heights are comparable with the latest satellite products from TROPOMI. WRF-Chem sensitivity simulations are carried out to analyze uncertainties that arise from fire emissions, meteorological conditions, feedback of aerosol radiative effects on meteorology, and various physical parameterizations, including the planetary boundary layer model and the plume rise model. Downwind PM 2.5 concentrations are sensitive to both flaming and smoldering emissions over the fire, so the uncertainty in the satellite-derived fire emission products can directly affect the air pollution simulations downwind. Our analysis also shows the importance of land surface and boundary layer parameterization in the fire simulation, which can result in large variations in magnitude and trend of surface PM 2.5 . Inclusion of aerosol radiative feedback moderately improves PM 2.5 simulations, especially over the most polluted days. Results of this study can assist in the development of data assimilation systems as well as air quality forecasting of health exposures and economic impact studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO 2 physiology and deforestation

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO 2 , and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO 2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO 2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Further, other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future Increases in Amazonia Water 1 Stress from CO2 Physiology and Deforestation

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO 2 , and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO 2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO 2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

Yue Li↗