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At least 397 records · Page 22

A 30-yr high-resolution weather research and forecasting model downscaling data over California and Nevada

This dataset presents a 30-year high resolution meteorological dataset obtained using the WRF model (Advanced version Research WRF version 4.4). We used WRF and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 as initial and boundary conditions to generate gridded meteorological variables. A large number of surface weather stations was used for model validation. A multi-physics analysis was first developed to identify a good physics suite extended from 6 November 00 UTC to 10 November 23 UTC, 2018, which included the Camp Fire in northern California. Based on the best physics suite, the downscaling dataset extends from 1 December to 28 February, 1990–2021 and the horizontal domain has 1.5 km grid spacing covering the entire states of California and Nevada in the United States. Comparisons between hourly surface observations and WRF simulations of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speeds show mean absolute errors on the order of (1.6-2.0 C), (10 %) and 1.2–1.5 m s -1 , respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-performance windows improve thermal survivability of occupants during cold snaps

Exposure to low indoor air temperature is a major contributor to temperature-related mortality during extreme cold events, especially when power outages disrupt operation of space heating systems. This study explores the impact of high-performance windows on the thermal resilience of residential buildings during extreme cold weather and grid power outages, as well as their long-term benefits through energy efficiency and reduced risk of property damage. Building performance simulations were conducted for reference residential buildings in three construction vintages and two major U.S. cities located in cold climate zones, considering two types of extreme cold events: short and severe, and long and milder. Our research found that even houses compliant with current energy codes struggle to maintain safe indoor temperatures for more than a few hours during power outages, necessitating rapid evacuations. High-performance windows can extend the thermal survivability time by up to 3.8 days within a 7-day cold snap and significantly reduce risk of bursting frozen water pipes, depending on the building’s insulation and infiltration level, cold event severity, and occupant vulnerability. This extended thermal safety time is crucial in scenarios where reduced mobility complicates emergency responses in senior housing. In addition to boosting thermal resilience, upgrading older homes with high-performance windows can reduce heating energy consumption by over 18% and cooling energy by 15%. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate thermal resilience assessments into new designs or major retrofits, including the use of typical and extreme weather scenarios and advanced technologies like high-performance windows.

Krelling, Amanda F↗

What are the Impacts on the HVAC System when it Provides Frequency Regulation? – A Comprehensive Case Study with a Multi-Zone Variable Air Volume (VAV) System

Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in commercial buildings have proven to be a great asset for providing secondary frequency regulation (FR) service to the power grid. However, how the provision of FR service affects the HVAC system Quality of Service (QOS) is still largely unknown. In particular, there exists a controversy regarding the energy efficiency impact. This paper investigates how a HVAC system performance and its associated controls are impacted during and after the FR service. For the assessment, we developed a dynamic Modelica-based medium office building model as a virtual testbed with the Air Handling Unit (AHU) fans providing the FR service. Different regulation capacities (demand levels) and standard test signals under various load profiles in the U.S. are considered. The results show that FR has little or no impact on the HVAC operation and occupant thermal comfort while the building is providing the service if an appropriate regulation capacity is pre-determined. However, if the regulation capacity is overestimated, the quality of the FR service provided by the HVAC system and the HVAC energy efficiency will be affected due to the equipment operating constraints. In addition, the AHU supply air temperature fluctuates, and the controller cannot maintain the desired setpoint as the FR magnitude is increased. After the FR service time, the system takes a certain period to return to normal operation. The recovery period extends with the increase in the FR magnitude. For this case study, there exists a control conflict between the FR control and the existing HVAC control (from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018) during high load conditions, causing the fan speed to saturate. The fan power consumption could increase significantly; up to 77% increase compared to the baseline was observed. This case study demonstrates that the HVAC system controls need to be enhanced and adapted to minimize the interaction between the FR controller and the indoor environmental controls in order to preserve the HVAC system QOS while (during and after) providing satisfactory FR service.

Lu, Xing↗

Experimental investigation on thermal inertia characterization of commercial buildings for demand response

Characterizing the thermal inertia of commercial buildings is of great importance in quantifying demand flexibility. Experimental tests can be used to investigate the thermal inertia of commercial buildings. However, existing studies tend to be qualitative and have limited scope. In this study, a comprehensive field test has been performed to assess the thermal inertia of commercial buildings. In this field test, six buildings are selected with different sizes, vintages, and types of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to represent the majority of the U.S. commercial building stock. We quantify the thermal inertia with building operation data collected under various thermostat excitation signals. We then studied the relationship between thermal inertia and intrinsic properties, such as floor area, HVAC system, etc., as well as the operation condition indicators such as outdoor air temperature, zone temperature, and occupancy. The testing results indicate that the median values of the normalized charge response time and the normalized discharge response time of the five buildings are 1~5 hr/ °C and -5~-1 hr/ °C, respectively. The results also show that the thermal inertia of commercial buildings may be sensitive to the HVAC system type but not the floor area or location of zones, i.e., core vs. perimeter. Finally, our results suggest that the relationships between the charging/discharging normalized response time and the zone/outdoor temperature may vary among zones and be highly nonlinear.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Model predictive control for active insulation in building envelopes

Active insulation systems (AISs) refer to building envelopes with insulation materials that can change their thermal conductivity and are coupled with thermal mass to reduce building energy consumption and peak power. In this research, a novel optimal control approach is proposed to evaluate the maximum theoretical energy and cost-saving potential of AISs. A time-varying model predictive control (TV-MPC) controller was used to optimally select the AIS mode and simultaneously determine the operation of the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system so that the maximum saving potential of the entire system can be realized. To comprehensively evaluate the power shifting flexibility of AISs, two optimization objectives—minimizing weekly electric energy consumption and minimizing weekly electricity cost—were considered. The summer season simulation results show that under the first objective, more than 50% electric and thermal energy was saved when the upper boundary of the indoor air temperature was set to 25 °C. Furthermore under the second optimization objective, 38% of the cost was saved. It can be expected that the developed approach can be easily applied to multiple types of AISs with different mechanisms.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Refining seasonal performance metrics for room air-conditioning in emerging markets: Integrating building simulations with real-world equipment performance data

Buildings significantly impact worldwide energy consumption, emphasizing the need to reduce the cooling energy demand, especially in warm climates. Minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and seasonal performance metrics such as the Cooling Seasonal Performance Factor (CSPF) are crucial for improving room air conditioning (RAC) efficiency. However, challenges remain, particularly in emerging markets like Brazil, where seasonal performance metrics have recently been introduced. This study assesses the factors influencing country-level seasonal efficiency metrics and proposes a framework to refine these calculations by considering local climates and expected RAC usage in real-world households via building simulations. Key considerations include outdoor air temperature binning for different climates, RAC usage patterns (i.e., daytime and nighttime usages), envelope thermal performance of households, and urban heat island (UHI) effects. The results reveal that CSPF values can vary significantly based on climate conditions, with observed CSPF ranging from 4.10 to 11.59 Wh/Wh across 577 Brazilian climates. The inclusion of UHI effects led to a reduction in CSPF values by up to 29% during nighttime operations in hot urban areas. Additionally, building envelope efficiency showed contrasting impacts on RAC performance, with CSPFs reaching up to 15.35 Wh/Wh under specific optimized conditions. These findings highlight the need for transparent policymaking in RAC performance databases, facilitating the application of approaches like those proposed in this study and supporting diverse stakeholders in decision-making.

Bavaresco, Mateus↗

Improving energy efficiency while reducing anthropogenic heat from buildings: how retrofits influence the building stock and urban microclimate in Los Angeles

Anthropogenic heat (AH) from buildings contributes to urban overheating, especially during heat waves, yet building retrofit studies usually evaluate energy savings without assessing impacts on AH. This study quantifies how common building retrofit measures affect both building energy use and AH emissions across the City of Los Angeles. Using a bottom-up urban building energy modeling framework coupled with high-resolution local weather from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Building Effect Parameterization (WRF-BEP), we evaluate eleven retrofit measures and two multi-measure retrofit packages. HVAC and LED lighting retrofits provide the largest city-wide annual site energy savings, while roof coating is most effective for reducing AH. A package optimized for energy savings reduces summer site energy use by about 32% (2.3 TWh), while a package incorporating AH-focused measures reduces the total AH by over 50% (137 PJ) with minimal difference in energy savings. The AH-aware package produces substantially greater urban cooling, reducing mean near-surface air temperature by up to 0.62 ℃ and peak temperature by up to 3.79 ℃. These results show that retrofit strategies selected only for energy savings may overlook major opportunities for urban heat mitigation. The study provides a framework for integrating AH into building retrofit planning and urban heat resilience policy.

Anthropogenic heat↗

Forecasting Solar-Thermal Systems Performance under Transient Operation Using a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach Based on the Deep Operator Network Architecture

Modeling and prediction of the dynamic behavior of thermal systems operating under intermittent energy input and variable load requirements represent one of the greatest challenges in the development of efficient and reliable renewable-based power generation technologies. In this work, a data-driven machine learning modeling framework was developed based on a modified version of the Deep Operator Network architecture where the time coordinate in the trunk net is replaced with historical data of the predicting quantity. The modeling framework can be used to accurately predict the performance of renewable-based energy conversion technologies including wind- and solar-based power plants. This novel framework was applied on a solar-thermal system that consists of a solar collection loop using a flat plate collector, a power generation loop comprising an Organic Rankine Cycle, and a thermal energy storage tank connecting both loops. Variable solar irradiance, air temperature, and power load profiles were used by the Deep Operator Network to predict the State-of-Charge and the efficiency of the thermal system for several days. The results were compared with the State-of-Charge and efficiency functions calculated using a physics-based model. For a simple operation scenario, characterized by a clear sky solar irradiance profile and constant load, the standard deviation in the State-of-Charge prediction by Deep Operator Network is below 0.9% during a seven-day prediction time horizon. For the most realistic operation scenario that considers real solar irradiance and a rough load profile, the maximum standard deviation in the predictions for the State-of-Charge and efficiency are below 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively. A comparison between Deep Operator Network and Long Short Term Memory network was also performed. In general, both networks predict very well the State-of-Charge for different data density conditions; however, a higher accuracy, with a standard deviation below 2.0%, is obtained by the Deep Operator Network during three and half days using sparser training data of 20-minute points. The same accuracy for the State-of-Charge prediction with the Long Short Term Memory network is achieved only for 14 h. Average standard deviations for the State-of-Charge prediction of 1.1% with the Deep Operator Network and 1.5% with the Long Short Term Memory network are obtained for a four-day prediction time using a denser training data of 5-minute points.

DeepONet↗

Evaluating the Impact of Off-Design CHP Performance on the Optimal Sizing and Dispatch on Hybrid Renewable-CHP Distributed Energy Resources

The maturation of distributed energy resources (DER) has prompted the exploration of their deployment in commercial building applications due to their potential to supply energy at lower costs and emissions rates compared to centralized generation. While several software tools exist for evaluating the techno-economic potential of integrated renewable energy and combined heat and power (CHP) systems for distributed generation applications, many suffer from poor accuracy in capturing off-design (part load and changes in ambient air temperature and pressure) performance characteristics of microturbines, combustion turbines, or internal combustion engines. Thus, this paper presents a methodology for integrating these off-design characteristics in the mixed-integer linear program within REopt, a hybrid DER screening tool. The economic impact of the CHP off-design performance is observed through several application studies of various hybrid system configurations in different climates. Each study indicates how CHP off-design performance influences optimal sizing and dispatch decisions and therefore overall system economic value. We observe through case studies that modeling without the off-design effects, depending on the CHP prime mover and site, can result in Net Present Value predictions of hybrid systems that can be overoptimistic in frequently hot climates (up to 52%), too conservative in frequently cold climates (up to 11%), or unaffected (+/-1%) in temperate climates. Cases also highlight several advantages of hybrid systems relative to non-hybrid systems such as total economic value and the systems' ability to mitigate potentially negative consequences attributed to off-design performance.

ambient de-rate↗

Building thermal dynamics modeling with deep transfer learning using a large residential smart thermostat dataset

Understanding thermal dynamics and obtaining the computational model of residential buildings enable its scaled application in energy retrofits, control optimization and decarbonization. In this paper, we present a deep learning approach to model building thermal dynamics with smart thermostat data collected from residential buildings, with the goal to investigate model generalizability. In the first stage, we developed and compared different Deep Learning architectures including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models and CNN-LSTM to predict indoor air temperature in a multi-step time horizon. In the second stage, we implemented a Transfer Learning (TL) process, which aims to improve the prediction performance on a new set of buildings (targets), exploiting the knowledge of related or similar buildings (sources). Different TL strategies and source model identification methods were investigated. The study showed that the CNN-LSTM performed the best among the architectures compared, with an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.26 °C for one-hour-ahead (twelve 5-min future steps) predictions. Furthermore, the results showed that freezing the LSTM layer and fine-tuning the other layers of the CNN-LSTM achieved the best performance among four TL strategies, which further improved the performance with respect to a machine learning approach by 10%, and proving the effectiveness and generalizability of the proposed approach. A comparison of three different source model identification methods showed that randomly selecting source models constrained by similar building characteristics can provide good TL performance while retaining simplicity comparing with other quantitative source identification methods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Comparative experimental study of heat transfer processes in accumulation energy recovery exchangers

In this study, an experimental comparison between three different energy accumulating ceramic heat exchangers for energy recovery in ventilation systems was presented. The units were selected to represent three different approaches on the energy recovery process: honeycomb structure with more accumulation mass (more energy can be stored in one unit)- Unit 1.1, honeycomb structure with lower accumulation mass- Unit 1.2, and a rectangular structure with expanded heat transfer surface- Unit 1.3. The achieved results are useful for the future application of such units in ventilation systems. It was established that all evaluated units demonstrated an acceptable effectiveness of thermal energy recovery from the exhaust air. Their average energy recovery efficiency ranged between 70 % and 80 %, aligning with expected performance benchmarks for regenerative heat exchangers employed in contemporary mechanical ventilation systems. It was also established that the factor which has the highest impact on thermal effectiveness is the heat transfer surface available in the tested heat exchangers. Units with the highest number of channels (i.e., with the highest amount of single channel walls, which can be used for heat transfer) achieve the highest thermal effectiveness. However, higher thermal effectiveness can negatively affect the ventilation potential of the units. Unit 1.3, which was characterized by the highest thermal efficiency, was also characterized by the lowest achievable flow rate. It was also found that the important technical aspect that should be taken into account when analyzing accumulation energy recovery units is also the fluctuation of the supply air temperature. The ability to ensure minimal temperature fluctuations is a significant operational advantage, as it ensures a higher level of safety at lower outside temperatures.

Energy recovery↗

Grey-box Fault Models and Applications for Low Carbon Emission CO2 Refrigeration System

CO2 refrigeration systems have attracted more attentions in recent years because of their zero-carbon emission advantages compared with traditional refrigerants. These systems are widely used in certain commercial buildings such as supermarkets. However, very limited energy studies have been done for such refrigeration systems under faults. Furthermore, this study investigated five common faults for supermarket transcritical CO2 refrigeration systems with display cases. The following major tasks were implemented for this study. (1) Five fault models (gray-box format) regarding the power consumption and supply air temperature were proposed for low- and high-temperature display cases, respectively. The models cover: ice accumulation on evaporator coil, evaporator fan partial failure, expansion valve failure, display door open, and condenser blockage. (2) These fault models were calibrated with field tests, and the modeling accuracies were in good agreement with measurement datasets. (3) The proposed fault models demonstrated more than 90% of fault detection for Fault Detection and Diagnostics (FDD) purposes for both field measurement and simulated data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Optimal planning of the joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roofs under climate change uncertainty

Photovoltaic (PV) panels directly convert sunlight into electricity; but, sunlight also heats the panels, negatively impacting their efficiency. Green roofs are vegetative layers grown on rooftops, mainly to provide added insulation on the roof to save energy. Green roofs also cool near-surface air temperature. Hence, the joint installation of PV panels and green roofs may potentially lead to higher efficiency of PV panels in certain climates. We develop a two-stage stochastic programming model to optimally place PV panels and green roofs under climate change uncertainty to maximize the overall profit from energy generated and saved. We calibrate the model using the literature, industry reports, and the data from different, at times conflicting, climate projections. We then conduct a case study for a mid-size city in the U.S., perform extensive sensitivity and robustness analyses and provide insights.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Local summer insolation and greenhouse gas forcing drove warming and glacier retreat in New Zealand during the Holocene

Geological climate archives from the Holocene Epoch provide baseline information concerning natural climate variability. Temperate mountain glacier extent is sensitive to summer air temperature, thus geological records of past glacier length changes are a useful proxy for this climatic variable. Here we present a new cosmogenic 10 Be chronology of glacier length changes at Dart Glacier in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. Prominent moraines deposited 321 ± 44 yr ago (n = 11) and 7.8 ± 0.3 ka (n = 5) show glaciers during the Little Ice Age were less extensive than during the early Holocene. This pattern of net Holocene glacier retreat is consistent with emerging data from other catchments in New Zealand and across the southern mid-latitudes. Using the physical framework of a transient global climate model simulation, we suggest that cool summers in the early Holocene were promoted by the local summer insolation minimum, together with low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, causing an early Holocene austral glacial maximum. An insolation-driven reduction in seasonality at southern mid-latitudes may reconcile differences between early Holocene temperature reconstructions where climate proxies have different seasonal sensitivities. Furthermore, we suggest that rising greenhouse gas concentrations after 7 ka caused regional-scale glacier retreat and appear to be the dominant driver of multi-millennial summer temperature trends in the southern mid-latitudes during the present interglacial.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparing the cooling effectiveness of operationalisable urban surface combination scenarios for summer heat mitigation

Extreme summer heat in cities exacerbates the vulnerability of urban communities to heatwaves. Vegetative and reflective urban surfaces can help reduce urban heat. This study investigated the impacts of urban trees, green roofs and cool roofs on heat mitigation during average and extreme summer conditions in temperate oceanic Melbourne, Australia. We simulated the city climate using ‘The Air Pollution Model’ (TAPM) at a 1 km spatial resolution over 10 years, which according to our review of the literature, was the most prolonged period for simulation in Melbourne. During a widespread heatwave event, some of the tested scenarios with combined surface parameters could reduce the extreme values of the energy budget components- sensible heat, latent heat, and storage heat fluxes up to seasonal averages compared to the existing situation for Melbourne (control). The scenario with the highest (reasonable maximum) ground-level vegetation, green roofs, and cool roofs could reduce air temperatures up to 2.4 °C. The simulations suggest that a combined strategy with vegetative and high-albedo surfaces will deliver higher effectiveness with maximum cooling benefits and cost-effectiveness than individual strategies in cities. These results suggest the importance of collaborative strategic planning of urban surfaces to make cities healthier, sustainable, and liveable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of seasonal anoxia on geochemical cycling in a stratified pond: Comparison to cooler pond conditions 40 years ago

Seasonal stratification in temperate lakes deeper than a few meters creates favorable conditions for pronounced vertical redox zones, often resulting in anaerobic hypolimnions and significant geochemical changes. Here, this study examined thermocline formation and trace element behavior in a seasonally stratified pond amid rising air temperatures. Over two years, data were collected from Pond B at the US Department of Energy Savannah River Site in Aiken, South Carolina. Pond B, a man-made monomictic reservoir, received cooling water from a nuclear reactor from 1961 to 1964. Strong thermal stratification forms a distinct thermocline in May and progresses downward until November. Compared to the 1980s, this study shows a delayed onset and extended duration of stratification. The prolonged summer stratification reduces deep water oxygen replenishment, extending hypoxic conditions. Trace and major elements sampled in the water column revealed strong correlations between As, Fe, and Mn profiles, with concentrations increasing by 1–2 orders of magnitude in the anaerobic hypolimnion. This period captured the seasonal transition from winter mixing to summer stratification to fall overturn. Under anoxic conditions, Fe(III) reduces to Fe(II) in the sediment, releasing dissolved iron into the water column. The extended anoxic periods likely promoted arsenic release from sediments. Prolonged anoxia may enhance arsenic mobilization and solubility in the lake. This study illustrates how climate-induced changes in seasonal stratification of contaminated waters can convert contaminant sinks into sources, offering insights into the cycling of arsenic and other dissolved ions in stratified lakes and their implications for water quality management.

Anoxic conditions↗

Virtual storage capability of residential buildings for sustainable smart city via model-based predictive control

This paper evaluates the virtual storage capability of a residential air-conditioning (AC) system by utilizing the building mass as a thermal storage to enable sustainable cities through model-based predictive control (MPC). The control-oriented building model was developed with a grey-box model structure based on the experimental data to predict the indoor air temperature. Based on the model, the operation cost-saving potential of the MPC was investigated in a single house with different comfort levels, electricity prices, and prediction horizons. The cost-saving of the MPC was approximately 10.6 % compared to the conventional control. The MPC was expanded to a residential building cluster considering the peak demand charge. In an hourly shedding and load-up scenario, the performances of the MPC and the heuristic prior-based control (PBC) are promising. When shedding was enforced all day, the peak demand saving of the MPC was 36~38 %, whereas that of the PBC was 25.7 % compared to the baseline. In addition, the monthly electricity bill, including the operation and peak demand cost, was investigated with different demand charge rates and weather conditions. The total saving decreased with a low demand charge rate and hot conditions, and the operation cost saving was compromised with more aggressive demand shedding.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A flexible class of priors for orthonormal matrices with basis function-specific structure

Statistical modeling of high-dimensional matrix-valued data motivates the use of a low-rank representation that simultaneously summarizes key characteristics of the data and enables dimension reduction. Low-rank representations commonly factor the original data into the product of orthonormal basis functions and weights, where each basis function represents an independent feature of the data. However, the basis functions in these factorizations are typically computed using algorithmic methods that cannot quantify uncertainty or account for basis function correlation structure a priori. While there exist Bayesian methods that allow for a common correlation structure across basis functions, empirical examples motivate the need for basis function-specific dependence structure. We propose a prior distribution for orthonormal matrices that can explicitly model basis function-specific structure. The prior is used within a general probabilistic model for singular value decomposition to conduct posterior inference on the basis functions while accounting for measurement error and fixed effects. We discuss how the prior specification can be used for various scenarios and demonstrate favorable model properties through synthetic data examples. Finally, we apply our method to two-meter air temperature data from the Pacific Northwest, enhancing our understanding of the Earth system’s internal variability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗