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At least 397 records · Page 22

Relating Paleoclimate Data and Past Temperature Gradients: Some Suggestive Rules

Understanding tropical sensitivity is perhaps the major concern confronting researchers, for both past and future climate change issues. Tropical data has been beset by contradictions, and many techniques applicable to the extratropics are either unavailable or fraught with uncertainty when applied at low latitudes. Paleoclimate data, if interpreted within the context of the latitudinal temperature gradient data they imply, can be used to estimate what happened to tropical temperatures in the past, and provide a first guess for what might happen in the future. The approach is made possible by the modeling result that atmospheric dynamical changes, and the climate impacts they produce, respond primarily to temperature gradient changes. Here we review some "rules" obtained from GCM (General Circulation Model) experiments with different sea surface temperature gradients and different forcing, that can be used to relate paleoclimate reconstructions to the likely temperature gradient changes they suggest.

Rind, David↗

Modeling atmospheric data and identifying dynamics Temporal data-driven modeling of air pollutants

Atmospheric modelling has recently experienced a surge with the advent of deep learning. Most of these models, however, predict concentrations of pollutants following a data-driven approach in which the physical laws that govern their behaviors and relationships remain hidden. Furthermore, with the aid of real-world air quality data collected hourly in different stations throughout Madrid, we present a case study using a series of data-driven techniques with the following goals: (1) Find systems of ordinary differential equations that model the concentration of pollutants and their changes over time; (2) assess the performance and limitations of our model using stability analysis; (3) reconstruct the time series of chemical pollutants not measured in certain stations using delay coordinate embedding results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Methods for 3D Lightning Mapping from Space

Global lightning detection has advanced greatly over the past few decades both on ground and from orbit. Ground-based systems like the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) excel at high-precision 3D reconstruction of local flashes, while spaceborne lightning sensors have much larger potential coverage but are limited by coarser resolution and often rely on data from other instruments to determine 3D flash locations. CubeSpark is a new mission concept focused on combining these two methods in the form of six small satellites in low-Earth orbit. CubeSpark will combine RF and bispectral optical measurements of lightning in order to map the 3D structure of both individual flashes and their parent thunderstorms at 1-2 km spatial resolution on a global scale, enabling a host of new atmospheric, climate, and space electricity studies. The goal of this study is to assess the feasibility and expected resolution of lightning mapping via indivudal VHF sources using different methods and detector combinations. Flashes were simulated beneath orbital configurations consisting of 1-6 satellites, taking into account the complicated interactions with Earth's ionosphere. In the multi-satellite (>5) approach, RF detectors on each satellite measure the arrival times of impulsive VHF sources to collectively pinpoint their locations in 3D and reconstruct flashes with higher resolution than has been achieved from space. The same can process can be performed with 3-4 satellites by constraining sources' horizontal locations with onboard optical imagers. A 1-2 station approach follows the established method of determining the height of an RF source using the arrival time difference between direct RF waves and their reflections off the Earth's surface. Here we present preliminary results of the expected accuracy of these methods to inform potential satellite missions like CubeSpark.

Lightning↗

A Lyα Transit Left Undetected: the Environment and Atmospheric Behavior of K2-25b

K2-25b is a Neptune-sized exoplanet (3.45R {sub ⊕}) that orbits its M4.5 host with a period of 3.48 days. Due to its membership in the Hyades Cluster, the system has a known age (727 ± 75 Myr). K2-25b’s youth and its similarities with Gl 436b suggested that K2-25b could be undergoing strong atmospheric escape. We observed two transits of K2-25b at Lyα using HST/STIS in order to search for escaping neutral hydrogen. We were unable to detect an exospheric signature, but placed an upper limit of (R {sub p}/R {sub ⋆})∣{sub Ly α} < 0.56 at 95% confidence by fitting the light curve of the Lyα red wing, or < 1.20 in the blue wing. We reconstructed the intrinsic Lyα profile of K2-25 to determine its Lyα flux, and analyzed XMM-Newton observations to determined its X-ray flux. Based on the total X-ray and extreme ultraviolet irradiation of the planet (8763 ± 1049 erg s{sup −1} cm{sup −2}), we estimated the maximum energy-limited mass-loss rate of K2-25b to be 10.6{sub −6.13}{sup +15.2}×10{sup 10} g s{sup −1} (0.56M {sub ⊕} per 1 Gyr), five times larger than the similarly estimated mass-loss rate of Gl 436b (2.2 × 10{sup 10} g s{sup −1}). The photoionization time is about 3 hr, significantly shorter than Gl 436b’s 14 hr. A nondetection of a Lyα transit could suggest K2-25b is not significantly losing its atmosphere, or factors of the system are resulting in the mass loss being unobservable (e.g., atmosphere composition or the system’s large high-energy flux). Further observations could provide more stringent constraints.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Technology Development and Infusion by NASA's Entry Systems Modeling Project

This paper describes recent development of modeling and simulation technologies for entry systems and their infusion into NASA's exploration missions. Technology development is organized and prioritized using a system-level perspective, resulting in four broad technical areas of investment: (1) Thermal protection material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Computational and experimental aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and control. The paper will highlight key contributions from each of these areas, their impacts from a spacecraft and mission design perspective, and discuss planned future investment. Aspects of each technical area are only briefly summarized here. Thermal protection material modeling is geared toward high-fidelity, predictive models capable of optimizing design performance, post-flight reconstruction, and quantifying thermal protection system reliability. New computational tools and experimental techniques have been applied to Orion, MSL/Mars 2020, Mars InSight, and Mars Sample Return missions. Research and development in the area of shock layer kinetics has focused on air and CO2-based atmospheres. In both cases, substantial improvements in model uncertainty have directly impacted the development of mission margin policies, flight instrumentation design and analysis (Orion and Mars 2020), and have even revealed the importance of neglected phenomena like mid-wave infrared radiation of CO2. Aerosciences is a very broad area of interest in entry systems, yet a number of important challenges are being addressed: Coupled fluid-structure simulations of parachute inflation and dynamics affecting Orion, Commercial Crew, and Mars programs; Experimental and computational studies of vehicle dynamics; Multi-phase flow with dust particles to simulate augmentation of aerothermal environments at Mars during dust storms; and studies of roughness-induced heating augmentation relevant to tiled (Orion, Mars 2020) and woven (Mars Sample Return) thermal protection systems. Guidance and control in the context of entry systems has focused on development of methods for multi-axis control (i.e. pitch and yaw, rather than bank angle alone) of spacecraft during entry and descent, with precision landing requirements driven by Mars human exploration goals.

Barnhardt, Michael D.↗

Expanding NeMO-Net Machine Learning Capabilities for Citizen Science

NASA NeMO-Net, the neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment, is an open-source deep convolutional neural network and interactive active learning training software aiming to accurately assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology as well as mapping of spatial distribution. We present an interactive citizen science video game, released this April, for desktop and iOS devices where users interactively label morphology classifications over mm-scale 3D coral reef imagery captured using diver photomosaic imagery, the UAV enabled NASA FluidCam instrument, and satellite datasets. To date, the application has had over 40,000 downloads and over 60,000 unique coral reef classifications, each filtered through a user-based rating and expert evaluation system. We also present results from NeMO-Net’s convolutional neural network (CNN) models used to semantically segment 2D satellite imagery as well as projections of 3D coral reconstructions using user input data as training datasets. Fusing datasets using machine learning from multiple remote sensing platforms presents novel methodologies for assessing the health of coral ecosystems, which are critically endangered by a changing climate. In partnering with Mission Blue, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Living Oceans Foundation (LOF), NeMO-Net leverages an international consortium of subject matter experts to provide both proper training for citizen scientists and the generation of a labeled datasets to ingest into machine learning algorithms for global coral reef identification.

NeMO-Net↗

Expanding NeMO-Net Machine Learning Capabilities for Citizen Science

NASA NeMO-Net, the neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment, is an open-source deep convolutional neural network and interactive active learning training software aiming to accurately assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology as well as mapping of spatial distribution. We present an interactive citizen science video game, released this April, for desktop and iOS devices where users interactively label morphology classifications over mm-scale 3D coral reef imagery captured using diver photomosaic imagery, the UAV enabled NASA FluidCam instrument, and satellite datasets. To date, the application has had over 40,000 downloads and over60,000 unique coral reef classifications, each filtered through a user-based rating and expert evaluation system. We also present results from NeMO-Net’s convolutional neural network (CNN) models used to semantically segment 2D satellite imagery as well as projections of 3D coral reconstructions using user input data as training datasets. Fusing datasets using machine learning from multiple remote sensing platforms presents novel methodologies for assessing the health of coral ecosystems, which are critically endangered by a changing climate. In partnering with Mission Blue, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Living Oceans Foundation (LOF), NeMO-Net leverages an international consortium of subject matter experts to provide both proper training for citizen scientists and the generation of a labeled datasets to ingest into machine learning algorithms for global coral reef identification.

NeMO-Net↗

Observations of Space Weather and Space Climate Over the Past 15 Years From SABER (And Longer!)

The global infrared (IR) energy budget of the thermosphere has been reconstructed back 70 years (to 1947). IR cooling, integrated over a solar cycle, is relatively constant over the 5 complete cycles (19 -23) studied. Result implies that solar energy (particles and photons) has similar, small (< 7%) variation from one cycle to next. From Earth's upper atmosphere perspective, solar cycles are really more similar than different, over their length. No consistent relationship between peak of IR cooling and sunspot number peak. Results submitted to GRL 8/2016.

Mlynczak, Marty↗

Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5 PMIP3 Model Simulations

The temporal stationarity of the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and North America (NA) is analyzed in atmosphere-only, and coupled last-millennium, historical, and control runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data archive. The teleconnection, defined as the correlation between December-January-February (DJF) tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and DJF 200 mb geopotential height, is found to be nonstationary on multidecadal timescales. There are significant changes in the spatial features of the teleconnection over NA in continuous 56-year segments of the last millennium and control simulations. Analysis of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs indicates that atmospheric noise cannot account for the temporal variability of the teleconnection, which instead is likely explained by the strength of, and multidecadal changes in, tropical Pacific Ocean variability. These results have implications for teleconnection-based analyses of model fidelity in simulating precipitation, as well as any reconstruction and forecasting efforts that assume stationarity of the observed teleconnection.

histories↗

A measure of active interfaces in supported catalysts for high-temperature reactions

Formulating knowledge of structure-function relationships in heterogeneous catalysis is central to the design of efficient catalysts; yet, the elucidation of dominant reaction sites has remained as a challenge. Here, in this paper, we present a methodology that can be used to visualize metal-gas and metal-oxide-gas interfaces in three dimensions and to quantify their catalytic activity levels. As a case study, CH 4 oxidation occurring in a Pt/CeO 2 system is chosen. By employing thermally robust Pt@CeO 2 model catalysts with size-tunable and monodisperse cores, and gas-permeable shells, we reconstruct a series of structures in 3D via electron tomography and match the information to activity data and theoretical calculations. This strategy reveals that two different interfaces catalyze the CH 4 oxidation and that their contribution to the overall rate changes with the Pt size, temperature, and gas atmosphere. Our results provide an analytic platform on which to explore reaction pathways and mechanisms applicable to multiple reactions and materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs

Abstract Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree‐ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter‐spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest future precipitation in Northeast Mexico is more dependent upon the warming of Tropical Atlantic SSTs relative to the Tropical Pacific.

Wright, Kevin T.↗

Mitigating the optical depth degeneracy using the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect with CMB-S4 data

The epoch of reionization is one of the major phase transitions in the history of the universe, and is a focus of ongoing and upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments with improved sensitivity to small-scale fluctuations. Reionization also represents a significant contaminant to CMB-derived cosmological parameter constraints, due to the degeneracy between the Thomson-scattering optical depth, $\tau$, and the amplitude of scalar perturbations, $A_s$. This degeneracy subsequently hinders the ability of large-scale structure data to constrain the sum of the neutrino masses, a major target for cosmology in the 2020s. In this work, we explore the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect as a probe of reionization, and show that it can be used to mitigate the optical depth degeneracy with high-sensitivity, high-resolution data from the upcoming CMB-S4 experiment. We discuss the dependence of the kSZ power spectrum on physical reionization model parameters, as well as on empirical reionization parameters, namely $\tau$ and the duration of reionization, $\Delta z$. We show that by combining the kSZ two-point function and the reconstructed kSZ four-point function, degeneracies between $\tau$ and $\Delta z$ can be strongly broken, yielding tight constraints on both parameters. We forecast $\sigma(\tau) = 0.003$ and $\sigma(\Delta z) = 0.25$ for a combination of CMB-S4 and Planck data, including detailed treatment of foregrounds and atmospheric noise. The constraint on $\tau$ is nearly identical to the cosmic-variance limit that can be achieved from large-angle CMB polarization data. The kSZ effect thus promises to yield not only detailed information about the reionization epoch, but also to enable high-precision cosmological constraints on the neutrino mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SOHIP Abel Transform and Onion Peeling Model Module

This software provides tools for analyzing and modeling physical systems using mathematical transforms and layered models. It includes (1) functions for performing the Abel transform, which is used to relate measurements of bending angles to properties such as refractive index and radius in a medium. The code can compute bending angles from input profiles and also reconstruct these profiles from observed data; (2) the functions for modeling systems with multiple layers using an onion-peeling approach, allowing users to simulate and analyze the behavior of layered materials or structures. These capabilities are useful for researchers and engineers working in fields such as optics, atmospheric science, and materials analysis, enabling them to interpret and model data from experiments or simulations relates to refraction in spherical symmetric medium.

Xu, Shuang [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗

Limits for the accretion time of the earth from cosmogenic Ne-21 produced in planetesimals

Arguments are presented which show that no more than 23% of all neon-21 in the atmosphere consists of spallation Ne-21 formed by the bombardment of the earth's accreting objects by galactic cosmic rays. The amount of spallation Ne-21 depends strongly on the interpretation of the primitive, 'unirradiated' neon in the atmosphere. On the assumptions that (1) the planetesimals were irradiated by galactic cosmic rays of present-day intensity, (2) their mean lifetimes against accretion were 0.1 billion years, and (3) spallation Ne-21 was quantitatively retained by the accreting earth, and on the basis of Anders' (1965) reconstructed size distribution No. 2 of asteroids, the number of spallation Ne-21 atoms yielded amounts to 8.7% of the total number of Ne-21 atoms now on earth.

Heymann, D.↗

Intrinsic Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modes of the Asian Summer Monsoon: A Re-assessment of Monsoon-ENSO Relationships

Using global rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) data for the past two decades (1979-1998), we have investigated the intrinsic modes of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and ENSO co-variability. Three recurring ASM rainfall-SST coupled modes were identified. The first is a basin scale mode that features SST and rainfall variability over the entire tropics (including the ASM region), identifiable with those occurring during El Nino or La Nina. This mode is further characterized by a pronounced biennial variation in ASM rainfall and SST associated with fluctuations of the anomalous Walker circulation that occur during El Nino/La Nina transitions. The second mode comprises mixed regional and basin-scale rainfall and SST signals, with pronounced intraseasonal and interannual variabilities. This mode features a SST pattern associated with a developing La Nina, with a pronounced low level anticyclone in the subtropics of the western Pacific off the coast of East Asia. The third mode depicts an east-west rainfall and SST dipole across the southern equatorial Indian Ocean, most likely stemming from coupled ocean-atmosphere processes within the ASM region. This mode also possesses a decadal time scale and a linear trend, which are not associated with El Nino/La Nina variability. Possible causes of year-to-year rainfall variability over the ASM and sub-regions have been evaluated from a reconstruction of the observed rainfall from singular eigenvectors of the coupled modes. It is found that while basin-scale SST can account for portions of ASM rainfall variability during ENSO events (up to 60% in 1998), regional processes can accounts up to 20-25% of the rainfall variability in typical non-ENSO years. Stronger monsoon-ENSO relationship tends to occur in the boreal summer immediately preceding a pronounced La Nina, i.e., 1998, 1988 and 1983. Based on these results, we discuss the possible impacts of the ASM on ENSO variability via the west Pacific anticyclone and articulate a hypothesis that anomalous wind forcings derived from the anticyclone may be instrumental in inducing a strong biennial modulation to natural ENSO cycles.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Level-1C Product from AIRS: Principal Component Filtering

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), launched on the EOS Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002, is a grating spectrometer with 2378 channels in the range 3.7 to 15.4 microns. In a grating spectrometer each individual radiance measurement is largely independent of all others. Most measurements are extremely accurate and have very low noise levels. However, some channels exhibit high noise levels or other anomalous behavior, complicating applications needing radiances throughout a band, such as cross-calibration with other instruments and regression retrieval algorithms. The AIRS Level-1C product is similar to Level-1B but with instrument artifacts removed. This paper focuses on the "cleaning" portion of Level-1C, which identifies bad radiance values within spectra and produces substitute radiances using redundant information from other channels. The substitution is done in two passes, first with a simple combination of values from neighboring channels, then with principal components. After results of the substitution are shown, differences between principal component reconstructed values and observed radiances are used to investigate detailed noise characteristics and spatial misalignment in other channels.

Noise Equivalent delta Temperature (NEdT)↗

Global Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Paleo Data Assimilation Products and Climate Model Simulations Over the Last Millennium

Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.

Tejedor, E.↗