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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗
DOE OSTI2025

Q-Cluster: Quantum Error Mitigation Through Noise-Aware Unsupervised Learning

Quantum error mitigation (QEM) is critical in reducing the impact of noise in the pre-fault-tolerant era, and is expected to complement error correction in fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). In this work, we propose a novel QEM approach, Q-Cluster, that uses unsupervised learning (clustering) to reshape the measured bit-string distribution. Our approach starts with a simplified bit-flip noise model. It first performs clustering on noisy measurement results, i.e., bit-strings, based on the Hamming distance. The centroid of each cluster is calculated using a qubit-wise majority vote. Next, the noisy distribution is adjusted with the clustering outcomes and the bitflip error rates using Bayesian inference. Our simulation results show that Q-Cluster can mitigate high noise rates (up to 40% per qubit) with the simple bit-flip noise model. However, real quantum computers do not fit such a simple noise model. To address the problem, we (a) apply Pauli twirling to tailor the complex noise channels to Pauli errors, and (b) employ a machine learning model, ExtraTrees regressor, to estimate an effective bit-flip error rate using a feature vector consisting of machine calibration data (gate & measurement error rates), circuit features (number of qubits, numbers of different types of gates, etc.) and the shape of the noisy distribution (entropy). Our experimental results show that our proposed Q-Cluster scheme improves the fidelity by a factor of 1.46x, on average, compared to the unmitigated output distribution, for a set of low-entropy benchmarks on five different IBM quantum machines. Our approach outperforms the state-of-art QEM approaches RZNE [28], M3 [24], Hammer [35], and QBEEP [33] by 1.26x,1.29x,1.47x, and 2.65 x, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing Data Privacy for Edge Systems

Internet-of-Things (IoT)-based streaming applications are all around us. Currently, we are transitioning from IoT processing being performed on the cloud to the edge. While moving to the edge provides significant networking efficiency benefits, IoT edge computing creates significant data privacy concerns. We propose a methodology that can successfully privacy protect the continual data streams generated by sensors on the edge device. We implement local differential privacy on streaming data and incorporate Bayesian inference and Gaussian process to evaluate the privacy policy. We demonstrate our methodology on a real-world smart meter testbed and identify the optimal privacy protection settings.

Kotevska, Olivera↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Power Flow Based on a Gaussian Process Emulator

In this letter, a novel Gaussian process emulator is proposed, for the first time, to conduct the probabilistic power-flow calculation. Based on Bayesian inference, a Gaussian process emulator is trained and served as a nonparametric, reduced-order model of the nonlinear power-flow model. This emulator has allowed us to evaluate the time-consuming power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. The simulations reveal the excellent performance of this method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Physics-Informed Graph Convolutional Network for Active Distribution System Voltage Prediction

Here this letter proposes a novel data-driven probabilistic physics-informed graph convolutional network (GCN) for active distribution system voltage prediction with PVs and EVs. It leverages both measurements and network topology to accurately and efficiently predict node voltages without the need for an accurate distribution system power flow model. The dropout-enabled Bayesian inference is developed to achieve uncertainty quantification of the voltage prediction. Thanks to the network model embedding, it also has robustness against topology changes, a key difference with existing machine learning-based approaches. Comparison results with other state-of-the-art machine learning methods on a realistic 759-node distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve better accuracy and robustness under different scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nitrification is a minor source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) in an agricultural landscape and declines with increasing management intensity

Abstract The long‐term contribution of nitrification to nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is poorly known and thus poorly constrained in biogeochemical models. Here, using Bayesian inference to couple 25 years of in situ N 2 O flux measurements with site‐specific Michaelis–Menten kinetics of nitrification‐derived N 2 O, we test the relative importance of nitrification‐derived N 2 O across six cropped and unmanaged ecosystems along a management intensity gradient in the U.S. Midwest. We found that the maximum potential contribution from nitrification to in situ N 2 O fluxes was 13%–17% in a conventionally fertilized annual cropping system, 27%–42% in a low‐input cover‐cropped annual cropping system, and 52%–63% in perennial systems including a late successional deciduous forest. Actual values are likely to be <10% of these values because of low N 2 O yields in cultured nitrifiers (typically 0.04%–8% of NH 3 oxidized) and competing sinks for available in situ. Most nitrification‐derived N 2 O was produced by ammonia‐oxidizing bacteria rather than archaea, who appeared responsible for no more than 30% of nitrification‐derived N 2 O production in all but one ecosystem. Although the proportion of nitrification‐derived N 2 O production was lowest in annual cropping systems, these ecosystems nevertheless produced more nitrification‐derived N 2 O (higher V max ) than perennial and successional ecosystems. We conclude that nitrification is minor relative to other sources of N 2 O in all ecosystems examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discrete-Direct Model Calibration and Uncertainty Propagation Method Confirmed on Multi-Parameter Plasticity Model Calibrated to Sparse Random Field Data

A discrete direct (DD) model calibration and uncertainty propagation approach is explained and demonstrated on a 4-parameter Johnson-Cook (J-C) strain-rate dependent material strength model for an aluminum alloy. The methodology's performance is characterized in many trials involving four random realizations of strain-rate dependent material-test data curves per trial, drawn from a large synthetic population. The J-C model is calibrated to particular combinations of the data curves to obtain calibration parameter sets which are then propagated to “Can Crush” structural model predictions to produce samples of predicted response variability. These are processed with appropriate sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to estimate various statistics of response with an appropriate level of conservatism. This is tested on 16 output quantities (von Mises stresses and equivalent plastic strains) and it is shown that important statistics of the true variabilities of the 16 quantities are bounded with a high success rate that is reasonably predictable and controllable. The DD approach has several advantages over other calibration-UQ approaches like Bayesian inference for capturing and utilizing the information obtained from typically small numbers of replicate experiments in model calibration situations—especially when sparse replicate functional data are involved like force–displacement curves from material tests. The DD methodology is straightforward and efficient for calibration and propagation problems involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in calibration experiments, models, and procedures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility of Vascular Parameter Estimation for Assessing Hypertensive Pregnancy Disorders

Abstract Hypertensive pregnancy disorders (HPDs), such as pre-eclampsia, are leading sources of both maternal and fetal morbidity in pregnancy. Noninvasive imaging, such as ultrasound (US) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), is an important tool for predicting and monitoring these high risk pregnancies. While imaging can measure hemodynamic parameters, such as uterine artery pulsatility and resistivity indices (PI and RI), the interpretation of such metrics for disease assessment relies on ad hoc standards, which provide limited insight to the physical mechanisms underlying the emergence of hypertensive pregnancy disorders. To provide meaningful interpretation of measured hemodynamic data in patients, advances in computational fluid dynamics can be brought to bear. In this work, we develop a patient-specific computational framework that combines Bayesian inference with a reduced-order fluid dynamics model to infer parameters, such as vascular resistance, compliance, and vessel cross-sectional area, known to be related to the development of hypertension. The proposed framework enables the prediction of hemodynamic quantities of interest, such as pressure and velocity, directly from sparse and noisy MRI measurements. We illustrate the effectiveness of this approach in two systemic arterial network geometries: an aorta with branching carotid artery and a maternal pelvic arterial network. For both cases, the model can reconstruct the provided measurements and infer parameters of interest. In the case of the maternal pelvic arteries, the model can make a distinction between the pregnancies destined to develop hypertension and those that remain normotensive, expressed through the value range of the predicted absolute pressure.

Biophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

XRD-PUAT (X-Ray Diffraction - Parameter Uncertainty Analysis Toolkit)

This XRD uncertainty toolkit was built to investigate uncertainty and local least squares topology over a specified parameter space on a single histogram in a gpx GSAS-II file. The parameter uncertainty can be investigated using either a frequentist F-test approach or a Bayesian Inference statistical inversion method on a weighted least squares or peak fit refinements.SAND Number: SAND2020-12227 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Moore, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2021

PRIME

SAND2021-0565 O PRIME is a modeling framework designed for the real-time characterization and forecasting of partially observed epidemics. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The framework can accommodate multiple epidemic waves and can help identify different disease dynamics at the regional, state, and country levels. Examples are provided using publicly available COVID-19 data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗
DOE OSTI2022

BIhNNs

The code enables to perform Bayesian inference in an efficient manner through the use of Hamiltonian Neural Networks (HNNs), Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), Neural ODEs, and Symplectic Neural Networks (SympNets) used with state-of-the-art sampling schemes like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and the No-U-Turn-Sampler (NUTS).

Dhulipala, Som↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-informed Predictive Analytics To Achieve Cost-effective Condition-based Monitoring And Maintenance Strategy

The research involves developing risk-informed predictive analytic capabilities to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation code based on Bayesian inference 2. Statistical data analysis code 3. Feature engineering code 4. Health classifier code 5. Diagnosis code 6. Prognosis code 7. Hazard code 8. Generation risk code 9. Economic code

Agarwal, Vivek↗
DOE OSTI2024

popclass

popclass is a lightweight python package that allows fast, probabilistic classification of the lens of a microlensing event given the event's posterior distribution and a model of the Galaxy. popclass provides the bridge between Galactic simulation and lens classification, an interface to common Bayesian inference libraries, and the ability for users to flexibly specify their own Galactic model and classification parameters.

Mcgill, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2024

GP-BayesOpInf

SAND2025-01851O GP-BayesOpInf is a software tool that uses algorithms to combine Gaussian process regression, principal component analysis, and linear Bayesian inference to produce a probabilistic reduced-order model for time-dependent systems. Numerical examples include the compressible Euler equations for an ideal gas, a heat diffusion process with a nonlinear reaction term, and a set of ordinary differential equations describing a compartmental model in epidemiology. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2025

FastBNNs

FastBNNs is a Python package implementing open-source algorithms for fast Bayesian inference of neural networks.

Schodt, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reno

Reno is a tool for creating, visualizing, and analyzing system dynamics models in Python. It additionally has the ability to convert models to PyMC, allowing Bayesian inference on models with variables that include prior probability distributions.

Martindale, Nathan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2025

EmuCP

Enhancing approximate modular Bayesian inference by emulating the conditional posterior: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167947325001112

Hutchings, Grant↗