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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing Mesoscale Cellular Convection in Marine Cold Air Outbreaks With a Machine Learning Approach

Abstract During marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs), when cold polar air moves over warmer ocean, a well‐recognized cloud pattern develops, with open or closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) at larger fetch over open water. The Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment provided a comprehensive set of ground‐based in situ and remote sensing observations of MCAOs at a coastal location in northern Norway. MCAO periods that unambiguously exhibit open or closed MCC are determined. Individual cells observed with a profiling Ka‐band radar are identified using a watershed segmentation method. Using self‐organizing maps (SOMs), these cells are then objectively classified based on the variability in their vertical structure. The SOM nodes contain some information about the location of the cell transect relative to the center of the MCC. This adds classification noise, requiring numerous cell transects to isolate cell dynamical information. The SOM‐based classification shows that comparatively intense convection occurs only in open MCC. This convection undergoes an apparent lifecycle. Developing cells are associated with stronger updrafts, large spectrum width, larger amounts of liquid water, lower surface precipitation rates, and lower cloud tops than mature and weakening cells. The weakening of these cells is associated with the development of precipitation‐induced cold pools. The SOM classification also reveals less intense convection, with a similar lifecycle. More stratiform vertical cloud structures with weak vertical motions are common during closed MCC periods and are separated into precipitating and non‐precipitating stratiform cores. Convection is observed only occasionally in the closed MCC environment.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examining the vertical heterogeneity of aerosols over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Both aerosol direct and indirect effects are affected by the vertical distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere, which is further influenced by a range of processes, such as aerosol dynamics, long-range transport, and entrainment. However, many observations of these processes are based on ground measurements, limiting our ability to understand the vertical distribution of aerosols and simulate their impact on clouds and climate. In this work, we examined the vertical heterogeneity of aerosols over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) using data collected from the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign. The vertical profiles of meteorological and aerosol physiochemical properties up to 2500 m above are examined based on the 38 flights conducted during the HI-SCALE campaign. The aerosol properties over the SGP show strong vertical heterogeneity and seasonal variabilities. The aerosol concentrations at the surface are the highest due to strong emissions at ground level. In general, the mode diameter of aerosols during summer (∼ 100 nm) is larger than that during spring (∼ 30 nm), a result of enhanced condensational growth due to enriched volatile organic compounds in summer. The concentration of aerosols below 30 nm in the boundary layer (BL) (e.g., below 1000 m) during spring is higher than that during summer, a result of the stronger new particle formation (NPF) events due to the reduced condensation sink in spring. In the BL, the size of the aerosols gradually increases with altitude due to condensational growth and cloud processing. However, the chemical composition of the aerosols remained similar, with organics and sulfates representing 59.8 ± 2.2 % and 22.7 ± 2.1 %, respectively, of the total mass in the BL. Through the vertical profiles of aerosol properties, we observed NPF events in the upper BL during 7 out of 38 research flights, where the newly formed particles continue to grow as they are mixed down to the surface. There is also an indication that deep convection brings aerosols from the free troposphere (FT) to the surface, where they grow to contribute to the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Overall, the vertical heterogeneity of aerosols over the SGP is influenced by aerosol dynamics (new particle formation, growth, and cloud processing) and transport processes (mixing in the BL, long-range transport, entrainment, and convective downward transport). Case studies showing the influence of these factors are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of the Grell-Freitas Deep Convection Scheme in Quasi-Uniform and Variable-Resolution Aquaplanet CAM Simulations

The Grell-Freitas deep convection scheme (GF) has been implemented in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the nonhydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) dynamical core. Aquaplanet simulations have been performed with a global quasi-uniform resolution mesh with ~120 km grid spacing and a variable resolution mesh employing a circular refined region with ~30 km grid spacing centering at the equator and ~120 km elsewhere. GF produces overall patterns of the general circulations comparable to those of other aquaplanet experiments, including those produced using the default Zhang-McFarlane convection scheme (ZM) in CAM Version 5.4. GF alleviates the overestimated occurrence of weak intensity precipitation characteristic of ZM due to GF’s different closure methods and deep-convection trigger conditions. Compared to ZM, the GF characteristics of the equatorial Kelvin waves are closer to observations. GF also better simulates precipitation at variable resolution, with no unrealistic wave distortion by the refinement. Overall, GF shows less sensitivity of convective precipitation and heating/moistening tendencies to changes in horizontal resolution compared to ZM. However, vertically-overlapped total cloud fraction simulated with GF in the tropics is more sensitive to the resolution than ZM due to the larger resolution-sensitivity of high-level cloud fraction in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cepheids with giant companions: II. Spectroscopic confirmation of nine new double-lined binary systems composed of two Cepheids

Context.Binary Cepheids with giant companions are crucial for studying the physical properties of Cepheid variables, in particular providing the best means to measure their masses. Systems composed of two Cepheids are even more important, but to date, only one such system has been identified, in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Aims.Our current aim is to increase the number of these systems known tenfold and to provide their basic characteristics. The final goal is to obtain the physical properties of the component Cepheids, including their masses and radii, and to learn about their evolution in the multiple systems, also revealing their origin. Methods.We started a spectroscopic monitoring campaign of nine unresolved pairs of Cepheids from the OGLE catalog to check if they are gravitationally bound. Two of these so-called double Cepheids are located in the LMC, five are in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), and two are in the Milky Way (MW). Results.We report a spectroscopic detection of the binarity of all nine of these double Cepheids with orbital periods ranging from 2 to 18 years. This increases the number of known binary double (BIND) Cepheids from 1 to 10 and triples the number of all confirmed double-lined binary (SB2) Cepheids. For five BIND Cepheids, the disentangled pulsational light curves of the components show anti-correlated phase shifts due to orbital motion. We show the first empirical evidence that typical period–luminosity relations (PLRs) are rather binary Cepheid PLRs, as they include light of the companion. Conclusions.The statistics of pulsation period ratios of BIND Cepheids do not agree with those expected for pairs of Cepheids of the same age. These ratios together with the determined mass ratios far from unity suggest a merger origin of at least one component for about half of the systems. The SMC and MW objects are the first found in SB2 systems composed of giants in their host galaxies. The Milky Way BIND Cepheids are also the closest such systems, being located at about 11 and 26 kpc.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensor Incipient Fault Impacts on Building Energy Performance: A Case Study on a Multi-Zone Commercial Building

Existing studies show sensor faults/error could double building energy consumption and carbon emissions compared with the baseline. Those studies assume that the sensor error is fixed or constant. However, sensor faults are incipient in real conditions and there were extremely limited studies investigating the incipient sensor fault impacts systematically. This study filled in this research gap by studying time-developing sensor fault impacts to rule-based controls on a 10-zone office building. The control sequences for variable air volume boxes (VAV) with an air handling unit (AHU) system were selected based on ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation for HVAC Systems. Large-scale simulations on cloud were conducted (3600 cases) through stochastic approach. Results show (1) The site energy differences could go –3.3% lower or 18.1% higher, compared with baseline. (2) The heating energy differences could go –66.5% lower or 314.4% higher, compared with baseline. (3) The cooling energy differences could go –11.5% lower or 65.0% higher, compared with baseline. (4) The fan energy differences could go 0.15% lower or 6.9% higher, compared with baseline.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

PAMTRA 1.0: the Passive and Active Microwave radiative TRAnsfer tool for simulating radiometer and radar measurements of the cloudy atmosphere

Forward models are a key tool to generate synthetic observations given knowledge of the atmospheric state. In this way, they are an integral part of inversion algorithms that aim to retrieve geophysical variables from observations or in data assimilation. Their application for the exploitation of the full information content of remote sensing observations becomes increasingly important when these are used to evaluate the performance of cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Herein, CRM profiles or fields provide the input to the forward model whose simulation results are subsequently compared to the observations. This paper introduces the freely available comprehensive microwave forward model PAMTRA (Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer), demonstrates its capabilities to simulate passive and active measurements across the microwave spectral region for upward- and downward-looking geometries, and illustrates how the forward simulations can be used to evaluate CRMs and to interpret measurements to improve our understanding of cloud processes. PAMTRA is unique as it treats passive and active radiative transfer (RT) in a consistent way with the passive forward model providing upwelling and downwelling polarized brightness temperatures and radiances for arbitrary observation angles. The active part is capable of simulating the full radar Doppler spectrum and its moments. PAMTRA is designed to be flexible with respect to instrument specifications and interfaces to many different formats of input and output, especially CRMs, spanning the range from bin-resolved microphysical output to one- and two-moment schemes, and to in situ measured hydrometeor properties. A specific highlight is the incorporation of the self-similar Rayleigh–Gans approximation (SSRGA) for both active and passive applications, which becomes especially important for the investigation of frozen hydrometeors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Peridynamic elastic waves in two-dimensional unbounded domains: Construction of nonlocal Dirichlet-type absorbing boundary conditions

The focus of this paper is on application of peridynamics (PD) to propagation of elastic waves in unbounded domains. We construct absorbing boundary conditions (ABCs) derived from a semi-analytical solution of the PD governing equation at the exterior region. This solution is made up of a finite series of plane waves, as fundamental solutions (modes), which satisfy the PD dispersion relations. The modes are adjusted to transmit the energy from the interior region (near field) to the exterior region (far field). The corresponding unknown coefficients of the series are found in terms of the displacement field at a layer of points adjacent to the absorbing boundary. This is accomplished through a collocation procedure at subregions (clouds) around each absorbing point. The proposed ABCs offer appealing advantages, which facilitate their application to PD. They are of Dirichlet-type, hence their implementation is relatively simple as no derivatives of the field variables are required. They are constructed in the time and space domains and thus application of Fourier and Laplace transforms, cumbersome for nonlocal models, is not required. At the discrete level, the modes satisfy the same numerical dispersion relations of the near field, which makes the far-field solution compatible with that of the near field. We scrutinize the performance of the proposed ABCs through several examples. So our investigation shows that the proposed ABCs perform stably in time with an appropriate level of accuracy even in problems characterized by highly-dispersive propagating waves, including crack propagation in semi-unbounded brittle solids.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learned implicit representations of aerosol chemistry and physics for enhancing the predictability of water cycle extreme events

Focal Area(s): Focal area 2: Predictive modeling through the use of AI-derived model components; and Focal area 3: physics-guided AI. Science Challenge: Comprehensive models of many geophysical processes require a large number of state variables, disqualifying them for inclusion in Earth System Models (ESMs) for the foreseeable future. This white paper proposes the paradigm shift from the use of state variables representing explicit physical quantities to the use of machine-learning to create and integrate a compact, implicit representation of a physical system with a smaller number of state variables. As an initial application, we propose to create parsimonious machine-learned surrogate models of gas- and aerosol-phase chemistry and physics with the purpose of improving the accuracy of the representation of cloud formation and cloud-aerosol interaction in the E3SM model. This type of improved representation of cloud microphysics is critical for enhancing the predictability of water cycle extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Contribution of expanded marine sulfur chemistry to the seasonal variability of dimethyl sulfide oxidation products and size-resolved sulfate aerosol

Marine emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and the subsequent formation of its oxidation products methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) are well-known natural precursors of atmospheric aerosols, contributing to particle mass and cloud formation over ocean and coastal regions. Despite a long recognized and well-studied role in the marine troposphere, DMS oxidation chemistry remains a work in progress within many current air quality and climate models, with recent advances exploring heterogeneous chemistry and uncovering previously unknown intermediate species. With the identification of additional DMS oxidation path ways and intermediate species that influence the eventual fate of DMS, it is important to understand the impact of these pathways on the overall sulfate aerosol budget and aerosol size distribution. In this work, we update and evaluate the DMS oxidation mechanism of the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem by implementing expanded DMS oxidation pathways in the model. These updates include gas- and aqueous-phase reactions, the formation of the intermediates dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and methanesulfinic acid (MSIA), and cloud loss and aerosol uptake of the recently quantified intermediate hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HPMTF). We find that this updated mechanism collectively decreases the global mean surface-layer gas-phase sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) mixing ratio by 40 % and enhances the sulfate aerosol ($SO^{2-}_{4}$) mixing ratio by 17 %. We further perform sensitivity analyses exploring the contribution of cloud loss and aerosol uptake of HPMTF to the overall sulfur budget. Comparing modeled concentrations to available observations, we find improved biases relative to previous studies. To quantify the impacts of these chemistry updates on global particle size distributions and the mass concentration, we use the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics module coupled to GEOS-Chem and find that changes in particle formation and growth affect the size distribution of aerosol. With this new DMS-oxidation scheme, the global annual mean surface-layer number concentration of particles with diameters smaller than 80 nm decreases by 16.8 %, with cloud loss processes related to HPMTF being mostly responsible for this reduction. However, the global annual mean number of particles larger than 80 nm (corresponding to particles capable of acting as cloud condensation nuclei, CCN) increases by 3.8 %, suggesting that the new scheme promotes seasonal particle growth to these sizes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

HPC Campaign Management: Remote data access with user-defined error bound using ADIOS and ZFP

Remote access to large-scale scientific datasets, like those generated by combustion simulations or other high-performance computing (HPC) applications, presents a significant challenge. Downloading entire datasets is often impractical due to their size and the bandwidth limitations of typical networks. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach that enables efficient remote access to large datasets distributed across multiple facilities. Our method enables technologies to download only the data values of a select variable, in a select region of interest, to a user-defined accuracy. For this purpose, we extended the ADIOS IO library to provide read functions with user-defined accuracy, a remote data server that understands multidimensional selections of specific variables, steps and accuracy from an ADIOS dataset, and which uses lossy compression on the remote site to reduce the data to be transferred back to the client. In addition, our extension of the ADIOS library collects metadata from multiple datasets in small files called Campaign Archives, which can be shared among project participants on any HPC, cloud or laptop, and which can easily facilitate the discovery of content and pointers to the data location as well as remote access to the data by local tools as if data was local. This feature called Campaign Management, enables a group of scientists to manage related datasets stored in multiple files, across multiple facilities as if it was in a single file/database. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using a 1.5 TB dataset from the S3D combustion simulation on Frontier at the Oak Ridge Leadership Facility. Even a single variable from this dataset, at 64 GB, is too large to be processed on a standard laptop. We show two different reading patterns for 2D plots and 3D visualization, with careful settings that a scientist studying combustion data would do and show that running the same Python scripts on Frontier directly takes comparable time than running them on the local laptop with remote access to the data on Frontier.

Podhorszki, Norbert [ORNL] (ORCID:000000019647542X↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implicit learning of convective organization explains precipitation stochasticity

Accurate prediction of precipitation intensity is crucial for both human and natural systems, especially in a warming climate more prone to extreme precipitation. Yet, climate models fail to accurately predict precipitation intensity, particularly extremes. One missing piece of information in traditional climate model parameterizations is subgrid-scale cloud structure and organization, which affects precipitation intensity and stochasticity at coarse resolution. Here, using global storm-resolving simulations and machine learning, we show that, by implicitly learning subgrid organization, we can accurately predict precipitation variability and stochasticity with a low-dimensional set of latent variables. Using a neural network to parameterize coarse-grained precipitation, we find that the overall behavior of precipitation is reasonably predictable using large-scale quantities only; however, the neural network cannot predict the variability of precipitation (R 2 ~ 0.45) and underestimates precipitation extremes. The performance is significantly improved when the network is informed by our organization metric, correctly predicting precipitation extremes and spatial variability (R 2 ~ 0.9). The organization metric is implicitly learned by training the algorithm on a high-resolution precipitable water field, encoding the degree of subgrid organization. The organization metric shows large hysteresis, emphasizing the role of memory created by subgrid-scale structures. We demonstrate that this organization metric can be predicted as a simple memory process from information available at the previous time steps. These findings stress the role of organization and memory in accurate prediction of precipitation intensity and extremes and the necessity of parameterizing subgrid-scale convective organization in climate models to better project future changes of water cycle and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven emulation of modal aerosol microphysics via neural operator-based modeling

The complexity and the small characteristic scales of aerosol microphysical processes pose a big challenge for accurate and efficient Earth system simulations at regional and global scales. In this work, we construct and evaluate a surrogate model: the aerosol deep operator network (ADON), a physics-inspired dual-net architecture for emulating the aerosol microphysics parameterization suite in the version 2 of the Energy Earth System Model (E3SMv2). The current version of the surrogate model is trained on a dataset comprising 9.8 million samples obtained from a global E3SMv2 simulation with the horizontal resolution of about one degree under cloud-free conditions. Incorporating domain spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as principle components extracted from training data, the dual-net surrogate model effectively captures the intricate representations of aerosol and the relationship with atmospheric state variables, achieving an R-squared score over $$95.7\%$$ for all the lognormal aerosol modes in the extrapolated regime. The validated model provides feature importance of input variables and their impact on the predictive capacity of the surrogate model in relation to the E3SM. The computational cost of online inference time deployed on CPUs and GPUs with lower precisions highlights ADON’s efficiency and potential in robust predictive modeling for large-scale Earth system computations.

Bai, Zhe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban weather modeling using WRF: linking physical assumptions, code implementation, and observational needs

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes urban schemes that simulate the influence of urban surfaces on the atmosphere using parameterizations for flux, and radiative exchanges. Three core schemes – the Bulk urban parameterization, Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), and Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (MLUCM) – represent increasing levels of complexity. Although the parameterizations within these urban schemes are described in the literature, their specific implementation remains poorly documented, thus slowing down model development efforts. This manuscript provides a roadmap to the three urban schemes in WRF version 4.5.2, presenting equations using the same symbols as in the model code, along with references to code lines, and including graphics and explanations that connect the code to its physical foundations. Our thorough review of the urban parameterizations implemented in WRF version 4.5.2 highlighted a handful of parameters that may introduce discontinuities in simulations: (i) in the SLUCM, a 1 mm h −1 rain rate threshold is employed to switch between two minimum moisture availability parameterizations, thus impacting latent heat flux calculations; (ii) in the SLUCM a threshold is used to partition shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components; (iii) in all three urban schemes, the bulk Richardson number is employed to select the similarity function, which influences the vertical distribution of heat and momentum. We also identified a highly simplified treatment of the radiative balance on roof surfaces. The implications of these simplifications can be assessed through targeted observations across relevant conditions, including varying precipitation rates, cloud cover, and transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, the widespread application of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in these urban schemes warrants model evaluation under highly stable and unstable conditions and in heterogeneous urban settings with variable land cover and building heights on scales finer than model resolution. To address these challenges, we offer guidance on observational strategies, emphasizing the need for multi-parametric measurements to capture potential compensating biases and multi-height measurements that align with the levels where quantities are diagnostic and prognosed in the model (i.e., the lowest atmospheric level of the WRF model). Finally, our inspection of the code revealed implementation bugs that have now been corrected in WRF versions 4.6.0 and 4.6.1. Sensitivity tests over the Atlanta urban area show that these corrections affect surface temperatures, underscoring the importance of performing rigorous documentation and verification of the implementation of parameterizations in model code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convection-Permitting Ensembles of an Isolated Mountain Thunderstorm during RELAMPAGO/CACTI

Abstract The north–south-oriented Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) ridge in central Argentina is noted for initiating thunderstorms that may grow into intense mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It also initiates more isolated, shorter-lived cells under weaker synoptic forcing. These cells are less impactful than MCSs but may be difficult to predict in convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to their strong sensitivities to subgrid and partially resolved processes. To study the mechanisms and predictability of such cells, convection-permitting ensemble simulations were conducted of an isolated, diurnally forced SDC thunderstorm during Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI)/Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO). The rich observational data facilitated detailed ensemble verification, where dry biases in the surface energy balance and soil moisture were identified. These biases promoted rapid removal of convective inhibition and an early onset of precipitating cells over the SDC that were shallower and weaker than the observed cell. Correction, and then overcorrection, of the soil moisture bias in two successive ensembles was required to rectify the surface energy balance and improve the representation of the SDC cell. Nevertheless, substantial ensemble variability in convective precipitation was found, with some members producing more widespread convection than observed and others producing no deep convection at all. This variability was largely explained by a combination of thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms, dominated by a positive sensitivity of convective precipitation to preconvective moist instability over the ridge. Secondary sensitivities were found to low-level upward mass flux and midlevel cross-barrier winds, the latter of which caused gravity waves with elevated downdrafts that tended to suppress incipient clouds.

Lopez, Andres [Department of Atmospheric and Ocean↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Treatment of Convolutional Neural Network Superresolution of Inland Surface Wind for Subgrid-Scale Variability Quantification

Abstract Machine learning models have been employed to perform either physics-free data-driven or hybrid dynamical downscaling of climate data. Most of these implementations operate over relatively small downscaling factors because of the challenge of recovering fine-scale information from coarse data. This limits their compatibility with many global climate model outputs, often available between ∼50- and 100-km resolution, to scales of interest such as cloud resolving or urban scales. This study systematically examines the capability of a type of superresolving convolutional neural network (SR-CNNs) to downscale surface wind speed data over land from different coarse resolutions (25-, 48-, and 100-km resolution) to 3 km. For each downscaling factor, we consider three convolutional neural network (CNN) configurations that generate superresolved predictions of fine-scale wind speed, which take between one and three input fields: coarse wind speed, fine-scale topography, and diurnal cycle. In addition to fine-scale wind speeds, probability density function parameters are generated through which sample wind speeds can be generated, accounting for the intrinsic stochasticity of wind speed. For assessing generalization to new data, CNN models are tested on regions with different topography and climate that are unseen during training. The evaluation of superresolved predictions focuses on subgrid-scale variability and the recovery of extremes. Models with coarse wind and fine topography as inputs exhibit the best performance when compared with other model configurations, operating across the same downscaling factor. Our diurnal cycle encoding results in lower out-of-sample generalizability when compared with other input configurations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating cloud liquid detection against Cloudnet using cloud radar Doppler spectra in a pre-trained artificial neural network

Detection of liquid-containing cloud layers in thick mixed-phase clouds or multi-layer cloud situations from ground-based remote-sensing instruments still poses observational challenges, yet improvements are crucial since the existence of multi-layer liquid layers in mixed-phase cloud situations influences cloud radiative effects, cloud lifetime, and precipitation formation processes. Hydrometeor target classifications such as from Cloudnet that require a lidar signal for the classification of liquid are limited to the maximum height of lidar signal penetration and thus often lead to underestimations of liquid-containing cloud layers. Here we evaluate the Cloudnet liquid detection against the approach of Luke et al. (2010) which extracts morphological features in cloud-penetrating cloud radar Doppler spectra measurements in an artificial neural network (ANN) approach to classify liquid beyond full lidar signal attenuation based on the simulation of the two lidar parameters particle backscatter coefficient and particle depolarization ratio. We show that the ANN of Luke et al. (2010) which was trained under Arctic conditions can successfully be applied to observations at the mid-latitudes obtained during the 7-week-long ACCEPT field experiment in Cabauw, the Netherlands, in 2014. In a sensitivity study covering the whole duration of the ACCEPT campaign, different liquid-detection thresholds for ANN-predicted lidar variables are applied and evaluated against the Cloudnet target classification. Independent validation of the liquid mask from the standard Cloudnet target classification against the ANN-based technique is realized by comparisons to observations of microwave radiometer liquid-water path, ceilometer liquid-layer base altitude, and radiosonde relative humidity. In addition, a case-study comparison against the cloud feature mask detected by the space-borne lidar aboard the CALIPSO satellite is presented. Three conclusions were drawn from the investigation. First, it was found that the threshold selection criteria of liquid-related lidar backscatter and depolarization alone control the liquid detection considerably. Second, all threshold values used in the ANN framework were found to outperform the Cloudnet target classification for deep or multi-layer cloud situations where the lidar signal is fully attenuated within low liquid layers and the cloud radar is able to detect the microphysical fingerprint of liquid in higher cloud layers. Third, if lidar data are available, Cloudnet is at least as good as the ANN. The times when Cloudnet outperforms the ANN in liquid detections are often associated with situations where cloud dynamics smear the imprint of cloud microphysics on the radar Doppler spectra.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Impact of Vertical Resolution on the Representation of Marine Boundary Layer Physics for Global-Scale Models

Abstract While GCM horizontal resolution has received the majority of scale improvements in recent years, ample evidence suggests that a model’s vertical resolution exerts a strong control on its ability to accurately simulate the physics of the marine boundary layer. Here we show that, regardless of parameter tuning, the ability of a single-column model (SCM) to simulate the subtropical marine boundary layer improves when its vertical resolution is improved. We introduce a novel objective tuning technique to optimize the parameters of an SCM against profiles of temperature and moisture and their turbulent fluxes, horizontal winds, cloud water, and rainwater from large-eddy simulations (LES). We use this method to identify optimal parameters for simulating marine stratocumulus and shallow cumulus. The novel tuning method utilizes an objective performance metric that accounts for the uncertainty in the LES output, including the covariability between model variables. Optimization is performed independently for different vertical grid spacings and value of time step, ranging from coarse scales often used in current global models (120 m, 180 s) to fine scales often used in parameterization development and large-eddy simulations (10 m, 15 s). Uncertainty-weighted disagreement between the SCM and LES decreases by a factor of ∼5 when vertical grid spacing is improved from 120 to 10 m, with time step reductions being of secondary importance. Model performance is shown to converge at a vertical grid spacing of 20 m, with further refinements to 10 m leading to little further improvement. Significance Statement In successive generations of computer models that simulate Earth’s atmosphere, improvements have been mainly accomplished by reducing the horizontal sizes of discretized grid boxes, while the vertical grid spacing has seen comparatively lesser refinements. Here we advocate for additional attention to be paid to the number of vertical layers in these models, especially in the model layers closest to Earth’s surface where climatologically important marine stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds reside. Our experiments show that the ability of a one-dimensional model to represent physical processes important to these clouds is strongly dependent on the model’s vertical grid spacing.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗