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At least 397 records · Page 22

The Importance of Human Reliability Analysis in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

HRA is a method used to describe, qualitatively and quantitatively, the occurrence of human failures in the operation of complex systems that affect availability and reliability. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure in a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) provides a more complete picture of the risk and risk contributions. A high quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedural, equipment design and need for automation.

Hamlin, Teri L.↗

Automating Mid- and Long-Range Scheduling for the NASA Deep Space Network

NASA has recently deployed a new mid-range scheduling system for the antennas of the Deep Space Network (DSN), called Service Scheduling Software, or S(sup 3). This system was designed and deployed as a modern web application containing a central scheduling database integrated with a collaborative environment, exploiting the same technologies as social web applications but applied to a space operations context. This is highly relevant to the DSN domain since the network schedule of operations is developed in a peer-to-peer negotiation process among all users of the DSN. These users represent not only NASA's deep space missions, but also international partners and ground-based science and calibration users. The initial implementation of S(sup 3) is complete and the system has been operational since July 2011. This paper describes some key aspects of the S(sup 3) system and on the challenges of modeling complex scheduling requirements and the ongoing extension of S(sup 3) to encompass long-range planning, downtime analysis, and forecasting, as the next step in developing a single integrated DSN scheduling tool suite to cover all time ranges.

Deep Space Network↗

Human Systems Integration at NASA Ames Research Center

The Human Systems Integration Division focuses on the design and operations of complex aerospace systems through analysis, experimentation and modeling. With over a dozen labs and over 120 people, the division conducts research to improve safety, efficiency and mission success. Areas of investigation include applied vision research which will be discussed during this seminar.

visio↗

Bias Correction of Hydrologic Projections Strongly Impacts Inferred Climate Vulnerabilities in Institutionally Complex Water Systems

Water-resources planners use regional water management models (WMMs) to identify vulnerabilities to climate change. Frequently, dynamically downscaled climate inputs are used in conjunction with land-surface models (LSMs) to provide hydrologic streamflow projections, which serve as critical inputs for WMMs. Here, we show how even modest projection errors can strongly affect assessments of water availability and financial stability for irrigation districts in California. Specifically, our results highlight that LSM errors in projections of flood and drought extremes are highly interactive across timescales, path-dependent, and can be amplified when modeling infrastructure systems (e.g., misrepresenting banked groundwater). Common strategies for reducing errors in deterministic LSM hydrologic projections (e.g., bias correction) can themselves strongly distort projected climate vulnerabilities and misrepresent their inferred financial consequences. Overall, our results indicate a need to move beyond standard deterministic climate projection and error management frameworks that are dependent on single simulated climate change scenario outcomes.

Keyvan Malek↗

Diagnosability-Based Sensor Placement through Structural Model Decomposition

Systems health management, and in particular fault diagnosis, is important for ensuring safe, correct, and efficient operation of complex engineering systems. The performance of an online health monitoring system depends critically on the available sensors of the system. However, the set of selected sensors is subject to many constraints, such as cost and weight, and hence, these sensors must be selected judiciously. This paper presents an offline design-time sensor placement approach for complex systems. Our diagnosis method is built upon the analysis of model-based residuals, which are computed using structural model decomposition. Sensor placement in this framework manifests as a residual selection problem, and we aim to find the set of residuals that achieves single-fault diagnosability of the system, uses the minimum number of sensors, and corresponds to the best model decomposition for the best distribution of the diagnosis system. We present a set of algorithms for solving this problem and compare their performance in terms of computational complexity and optimality of solutions. We demonstrate the approach using a benchmark multi-tank system.

Daigle, Matthew↗

Numerical Modeling of Propellant Boil-Off in a Cryogenic Storage Tank

A numerical model to predict boil-off of stored propellant in large spherical cryogenic tanks has been developed. Accurate prediction of tank boil-off rates for different thermal insulation systems was the goal of this collaboration effort. The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program, integrating flow analysis and conjugate heat transfer for solving complex fluid system problems, was used to create the model. Calculation of tank boil-off rate requires simultaneous simulation of heat transfer processes among liquid propellant, vapor ullage space, and tank structure. The reference tank for the boil-off model was the 850,000 gallon liquid hydrogen tank at Launch Complex 39B (LC- 39B) at Kennedy Space Center, which is under study for future infrastructure improvements to support the Constellation program. The methodology employed in the numerical model was validated using a sub-scale model and tank. Experimental test data from a 1/15th scale version of the LC-39B tank using both liquid hydrogen and liquid nitrogen were used to anchor the analytical predictions of the sub-scale model. Favorable correlations between sub-scale model and experimental test data have provided confidence in full-scale tank boil-off predictions. These methods are now being used in the preliminary design for other cases including future launch vehicles

Majumdar, A. K.↗

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Luxhoj, J. T.↗

Robot graphic simulation testbed

The objective of this research was twofold. First, the basic capabilities of ROBOSIM (graphical simulation system) were improved and extended by taking advantage of advanced graphic workstation technology and artificial intelligence programming techniques. Second, the scope of the graphic simulation testbed was extended to include general problems of Space Station automation. Hardware support for 3-D graphics and high processing performance make high resolution solid modeling, collision detection, and simulation of structural dynamics computationally feasible. The Space Station is a complex system with many interacting subsystems. Design and testing of automation concepts demand modeling of the affected processes, their interactions, and that of the proposed control systems. The automation testbed was designed to facilitate studies in Space Station automation concepts.

Cook, George E.↗

Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics↗

Control-oriented modeling of combustion and flow processes in liquid propellant rocket engines

This paper presents a control-oriented model of the flow, reaction, and transport processes in liquid propellant rocket combustion chambers, based on the multicomponent conservation laws of gas dynamics. This model provides a framework for the inclusion of detailed chemical kinetic relations, viscous and other dissipative effects, a variety of actuators and sensors, as well as process and measurement disturbances. In addition to its potential usefulness to the designer in understanding the dynamical complexity of the system and the sources of model uncertainty, the model provides a rigorous basis for control system design. An appraisal of current and feasible actuators and sensors, and their mathematical representation are included.

Bentsman, Joseph↗

Enabling Assurance in the MBSE Environment

A number of specific benefits that fit within the hallmarks of effective development are realized with implementation of model-based approaches to systems and assurance. Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) enabled by standardized modeling languages (e.g., SysML®) is at the core. These benefits in the context of spaceflight system challenges can include [1]: • Improved management of complex development • Reduced risk in the development process • Improved cost management • Improved design decisions With appropriate modeling techniques the assurance community also can improve early oversight and insight into project development. NASA has shown the basic constructs of SysML in an MBSE environment offer several key advantages, within a Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA) initiative [2, 3]. These include the following: • Model viewpoints that promote rapid and systematic assessment of requirements coverage, hazard tagging and risk management • Embedded safety assessments for launch vehicles • Deployment of model assisted development of reliability products - Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEAs) and Fault Trees • Test Planning • Validation and Verification of complex functions • Support of Assurance Case development for complex systems In addition, while there are benefits to be harvested, there is a realization that these do not come without effort and cost. Enabling model-based approaches requires structure, not only in an organizational context, but in a modeling context as well. There can be a steep learning curve and costs associated to train skilled modelers. But, on the other hand, not all of the assurance community need to be modelers. Models themselves must conform to ontologies that enable assurance. This places constraints upon the models and modelers. Optimums have yet to be developed where resources and constraints on modeling must be traded off in the organization and modeling efforts for projects. A number of barriers need to be overcome, as well, which pose challenges to the developers of the software that supports MBSE/MBMA. Information and data must be made to flow seamlessly through the life cycle. Because there is a wide variety of tools used in the community, to avoid the problems of the past of silos, delays, and diverging interests, information should flow among these tools to support the “single source of truth” paradigm of MBSE. This will greatly facilitate MBMA and advancement of assurance functions.

Evans, John W.↗

Photovoltaic performance models - A report card

Models for the analysis of photovoltaic (PV) systems' designs, implementation policies, and economic performance, have proliferated while keeping pace with rapid changes in basic PV technology and extensive empirical data compiled for such systems' performance. Attention is presently given to the results of a comparative assessment of ten well documented and widely used models, which range in complexity from first-order approximations of PV system performance to in-depth, circuit-level characterizations. The comparisons were made on the basis of the performance of their subsystem, as well as system, elements. The models fall into three categories in light of their degree of aggregation into subsystems: (1) simplified models for first-order calculation of system performance, with easily met input requirements but limited capability to address more than a small variety of design considerations; (2) models simulating PV systems in greater detail, encompassing types primarily intended for either concentrator-incorporating or flat plate collector PV systems; and (3) models not specifically designed for PV system performance modeling, but applicable to aspects of electrical system design. Models ignoring subsystem failure or degradation are noted to exclude operating and maintenance characteristics as well.

Smith, J. H.↗

Applying the System Complexity Metric (SCM)

A fundamental cause of difficulty in larger engineering projects is their inherent complexity. An impression of complexity occurs if a system is simply difficult to understand, so that there is no obvious mental model that correctly predicts its behavior. Higher complexity is usually associated with higher cost and higher failure rate. Complexity is indicated by a system having more and diverse components, multiple interactions and feedback loops, transients and dynamic behavior, and often the emergence of unanticipated failure modes. Identifying and removing these signs of complexity should reduce complexity and improve performance. Here we limit complexity measurement to the number of components and their interactions. A System Complexity Metric (SCM) is defined as equal to the sum of the number of parts in a system, N, plus the sum of the one-way interconnections between them, I. SCM = N + I. The SCM is easily determined by direct inspection of system block diagrams. Previous work found that life support system cost was directly proportional to SCM and that failure rate increased faster than SCM squared. SCM can be used to compare systems or to guide their redesign to reduce cost and failure rate. Carbon dioxide removal systems will be analyzed using SCM, cost, and failure rate.

Harry W Jones↗

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of grains in orbit. An example of application is a spaceborne observatory for exoplanet imaging, where the primary aperture is a cloud instead of a monolithic aperture. A model is proposed of the multi-scale dynamics of the grains and cloud in orbit, as well as a control approach for cloud shape maintenance and alignment, and preliminary simulation studies are carried out for the representative imaging system.

granular matter↗

Development of an unsteady aerodynamics model to improve correlation of computed blade stresses with test data

A reliable rotor aeroelastic analysis operational that correctly predicts the vibration levels for a helicopter is utilized to test various unsteady aerodynamics models with the objective of improving the correlation between test and theory. This analysis called Rotor Aeroelastic Vibration (RAVIB) computer program is based on a frequency domain forced response analysis which utilizes the transfer matrix techniques to model helicopter/rotor dynamic systems of varying degrees of complexity. The results for the AH-1G helicopter rotor were compared with the flight test data during high speed operation and they indicated a reasonably good correlation for the beamwise and chordwise blade bending moments, but for torsional moments the correlation was poor. As a result, a new aerodynamics model based on unstalled synthesized data derived from the large amplitude oscillating airfoil experiments was developed and tested.

Gangwani, S. T.↗

Impact of NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling Project on Planetary Mission Design

Planetary missions continue to grow larger and more complex. Furthermore, the current focus on human exploration of the Moon and Mars, as well as Mars Sample Return(MSR), place increas-ingly stringent requirements on the reliability of the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) system that ensures the safe delivery of payload or crew to their destination. Planetary EDL is an area in which mission designers are critically reliant on modeling and simulation to demonstrate the reliability of the system, as there are no ground facilities that are able to fully test these systems in a flight-relevant environment. NASA’s state-of-the-art modeling and simulation capability must continually evolve to meet the needs of the next generation of planetary EDL. To accomplish this aim, NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project was formed in 2013and is funded bythe Space Technology Mission Directorate(STMD) and Science Mission Directorate (SMD). ESM is the Agency’s only cross-cutting effort for advancing entry systems modeling and simulation capabilities across a range of technical disciplines and Solar System destinations. ESM is a portfolio project covering a variety of mid-TRL research efforts within four core EDL-related areas of investment: (1) Thermal protection material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and con-trol. The material modeling group creates detailed material response modelsof thermal protection systems (TPS)from the micro to macro scale, and at the fun-damental and engineering levels. Shock layer kinetics and radiation focuses on radiative heating of space-craft, quantum chemistry and benchmark experiments for validation.Aerosciences is a broad research area that impacts many aspects of entry systems, including parachutes, aerodynamics, and turbulent heating augmentation due to TPS roughness.The guidance, navigation,and control effort under ESM is expanding the capabilities of NASA’s main flight mechanics tool, POST2, for use on high-performance computing architectures and to generalize interoperability with external applications for more detailed end-to-end simula-tion.In addition, several focusedresearch topics have been approvedto augment ESM’s core portfolio. These include efforts for deep post-flight analysis of Mars 2020/MEDLI2 flight data; development ofTPS failure models; improvement of hypersonic wakeflow models; and a recently concluded effort to provide material response models for NuSil-coated PICA heat-shield material. This presentation will discuss each of these investment areas and demonstrate via real mission examples how advances to the state-of-the-art enabled by ESM are directly impacting the missions of today and tomorrow, including InSight, Mars 2020, Mars Sample Return, Orion, and Dragonfly.

Entry Systems Modeling↗

Evolution of Geometric Sensitivity Derivatives from Computer Aided Design Models

The generation of design parameter sensitivity derivatives is required for gradient-based optimization. Such sensitivity derivatives are elusive at best when working with geometry defined within the solid modeling context of Computer-Aided Design (CAD) systems. Solid modeling CAD systems are often proprietary and always complex, thereby necessitating ad hoc procedures to infer parameter sensitivity. A new perspective is presented that makes direct use of the hierarchical associativity of CAD features to trace their evolution and thereby track design parameter sensitivity. In contrast to ad hoc methods, this method provides a more concise procedure following the model design intent and determining the sensitivity of CAD geometry directly to its respective defining parameters.

Jones, William T.↗

Methodologies for Verification and Validation of Space Launch System (SLS) Structural Dynamic Models: Appendices

Verification and validation (V&V) is a highly challenging undertaking for SLS structural dynamics models due to the magnitude and complexity of SLS subassemblies and subassemblies. Responses to challenges associated with V&V of Space Launch System (SLS) structural dynamics models are presented in Volume I of this paper. Four methodologies addressing specific requirements for V&V are discussed. (1) Residual Mode Augmentation (RMA). (2) Modified Guyan Reduction (MGR) and Harmonic Reduction (HR, introduced in 1976). (3) Mode Consolidation (MC). Finally, (4) Experimental Mode Verification (EMV). This document contains the appendices to Volume I.

Coppolino, Robert N.↗