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DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model

The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The dGen model can be used for identifying the sectors, locations, and customers for whom adopting DERs would have a high economic value, for generating forecasts as an input to estimate distribution hosting capacity analysis, integrated resource planning, and load forecasting, and for understanding the economic or policy conditions in which DER adoption becomes viable, and for illustrating sensitivity to market and policy changes such as retail electricity rate structures, net energy metering, and technology costs.

Array↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Parametric Study on Using Active Debris Removal to Stabilize the Future LEO Debris Environment

Recent analyses of the instability of the orbital debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 have reignited the interest in using active debris removal (ADR) to remediate the environment. There are; however, monumental technical, resources, operational, legal, and political challenges in making economically viable ADR a reality. Before a consensus on the need for ADR can be reached, a careful analysis of the effectiveness of ADR must be conducted. The goal is to demonstrate the feasibility of using ADR to preserve the future environment and to guide its implementation to maximize the benefit-cost ratio. This paper describes a comprehensive sensitivity study on using ADR to stabilize the future LEO debris environment. The NASA long-term, orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of many key parameters. These parameters include (1) the starting epoch of ADR implementation, (2) various target selection criteria, (3) the benefits of collision avoidance maneuvers, (4) the consequence of targeting specific inclination or altitude regimes, (5) the consequence of targeting specific classes of vehicles, and (6) the timescale of removal. Additional analyses on the importance of postmission disposal and how future launches might affect the requirements to stabilize the environment are also included.

Liou, J.C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Weathering Impact on Solar System Surfaces and Planetary Mission Science

We often look "through a glass, darkly" at solar system bodies with tenuous atmospheres and direct surface exposure to the local space environment. Space weathering exposure acts via universal space-surface interaction processes to produce a thin patina of outer material covering, potentially obscuring endogenic surface materials of greatest interest for understanding origins and interior evolution. Examples of obscuring exogenic layers are radiation crusts on cometary nuclei and iogenic components of sulfate hydrate deposits on the trailing hemisphere of Europa. Weathering processes include plasma ion implantation into surfaces, sputtering by charged particles and solar ultraviolet photons, photolytic chemistry driven by UV irradiation, and radiolytic chemistry evolving from products of charged particle irradiation. Regolith structure from impacts, and underlying deeper structures from internal evolution, affects efficacy of certain surface interactions, e.g. sputtering as affected by porosity and surface irradiation dosage as partly attenuated by local topographic shielding. These processes should be regarded for mission science planning as potentially enabling, e.g. since direct surface sputtering, and resultant surface-bound exospheres, can provide in-situ samples of surface composition to ion and neutral mass spectrometers on orbital spacecraft. Sample return for highest sensitivity compOSitional and structural analyses at Earth will usually be precluded by limited range of surface sampling, long times for return, and high cost. Targeted advancements in instrument technology would be more cost efficient for local remote and in-situ sample analysis. More realistic laboratory simulations, e.g. for bulk samples, are needed to interpret mission science observations of weathered surfaces. Space environment effects on mission spacecraft and science operations must also be specified and mitigated from the hourly to monthly changes in space weather and from longer term (e.g., solar cycle) evolution of space climate. Capable instrumentation on planetary missions can and should be planned to contribute to knowledge of interplanetary space environments. Evolving data system technologies such as virtual observatories should be explored for more interdisciplinary application to the science of planetary surface, atmospheric, magnetospheric, and interplanetary interactions.

Cooper, John F.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modular Integrated System for Carbon-Neutral Methanol Synthesis Using Direct Air Capture and Carbon-Free Hydrogen Production

This study investigates the development and economic analysis of a modular integrated system for carbon-neutral methanol synthesis, leveraging direct air capture (DAC) and solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) for carbon dioxide and hydrogen production, respectively. The proposed system integrates a novel building-based DAC process, functionalized solid sorbents, and low-energy SOEC technology, aiming to minimize operational and capital costs. A comparison between the base case system (1,000 t methanol/year) and a scaled-up model (14,758 t methanol/year) reveals significant improvements in efficiency and economic feasibility. The scaled-up system achieves a levelized cost of methanol (LCOM) of $740/t, a 7.5% reduction compared to that of conventional DAC-based systems, while utilizing existing building HVAC infrastructure for air handling. Detailed sensitivity analyses were conducted, evaluating the effects of plant capacity and air flow rate on the LCOM, demonstrating the scalability of the building-based DAC system. The cradle-to-gate life cycle analysis shows that the proposed process using renewable-sourced electricity achieves a 38% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission compared to reported values of green methanol production technologies that use a conventional DAC and a conventional methanol synthesis catalyst. When fossil-sourced electricity is used in the proposed process, it leads to about a 37.5% reduction in GHG emission in comparison to reported values for conventional methanol production technologies using steam methane reforming technology and fossil-sourced electricity.

alcohols↗

NASA NTRS1994

Advanced Automation for Ion Trap Mass Spectrometry-New Opportunities for Real-Time Autonomous Analysis

The utility of MS/MS for both target compound analysis and the structure elucidation of unknowns has been described in a number of references. A broader acceptance of this technique has not yet been realized as it requires large, complex, and costly instrumentation which has not been competitive with more conventional techniques. Recent advancements in ion trap mass spectrometry promise to change this situation. Although the ion trap's small size, sensitivity, and ability to perform multiple stages of mass spectrometry have made it eminently suitable for on-line, real-time monitoring applications, advance automation techniques are required to make these capabilities more accessible to non-experts. Towards this end we have developed custom software for the design and implementation of MS/MS experiments. This software allows the user to take full advantage of the ion trap's versatility with respect to ionization techniques, scan proxies, and ion accumulation/ejection methods. Additionally, expert system software has been developed for autonomous target compound analysis. This software has been linked to ion trap control software and a commercial data system to bring all of the steps in the analysis cycle under control of the expert system. These software development efforts and their utilization for a number of trace analysis applications will be described.

Palmer, Peter T.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pyomo.DOE: An open-source package for model-based design of experiments in Python

Predictive mathematical models are a cornerstone of science and engineering. Yet selecting, calibrating, and validating said science-based models often remains an art in practice. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) provides a systematic framework to maximize information gain from experiments while minimizing time and resource costs. But MBDoE remains limited to niche application areas, in part because practitioners must integrate expertise in statistics, computational optimization, and modeling. To help reduce this barrier, we introduce Pyomo.DOE, an open-source package for MBDoE. Pyomo.DOE uses a nonlinear sensitivity analysis code k_aug to quickly approximate the Fisher information matrix and leverages a new stochastic programming abstraction. We demonstrate Pyomo.DOE with the first application of MBDoE to fixed-bed breakthrough experiments, which highlights the power of Pyomo.DOE to quantify the value of experimental modifications a priori for large-scale partial differential-algebraic equation (PDAE) models. Here we also provide a mathematical primer on MBDoE targeted at general chemical engineers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Assessment and Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Repurposing Decommissioned Wind Turbine Blades as High-Voltage Transmission Poles

Wind energy is widely deployed and will likely grow in service of reducing the world’s dependency on fossil fuels. The first generation of wind turbines are now coming to the end of their service lives, and there are limited options for the reuse or recycling of the composite materials they are made of. Current literature has verified that there is no existing recycling pathway (i.e., mechanical, chemical, thermal methods of recovery, etc.) for end-of-life materials in wind blades that can meet cost parity with landfilling in the US. However, to the authors’ knowledge there is no study to date that uncovers the cost structures associated with repurposing wind turbine blades in the US. Repurposing could offer a cost-competitive advantage through displacement of higher-value products, rather than materials or chemical constituents alone. This study implements life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle cost analysis (LCC) to assess the environmental and financial implications at each stage of repurposing wind turbine blades as the primary load-carrying elements for high-voltage transmission line structures in the United States. This case study contribution to knowledge is based on the successful management of construction waste by analyzing an application for repurposing construction demolition waste. Specifically, this study presents an environmental and financial analysis of repurposing wind turbine blades as transmission line poles. Under this case study, our results show that BladePoles have lower greenhouse gas emissions than steel poles, and we anticipate BladePoles will be less costly than steel poles. Overall emissions are most sensitive to combustion emissions, driven primarily by transportation distance and hours of required crane operations during the installation process. Compared to other evaluated recycling methods, repurposing wind blades as BladePoles has the least overall global warming potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Hydropower and PSH Capacity Expansion Modeling (Final Report on HydroWIRES D1 Improvements to Capacity Expansion Modeling)

Hydropower and pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) have played a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. electricity system for over a century. As variable generation (VG) deployment increases the demand for flexible, dispatchable generation, it is important to use all available methods for understanding how hydropower and PSH interfaces with VG in a future low-carbon grid. Capacity expansion models (CEMs) of electricity systems are often used to study future electricity scenarios, but these tools often have difficulty representing site- and technology-details of hydropower and PSH due to limited spatial, temporal, or process resolution. This report demonstrates a set of model advancements to improve hydropower and PSH representations in CEMs and other models that consider hydropower and PSH's role in electricity systems. Model advancements include new data integration to define closed-loop PSH resource availability and cost, along with site-level parameterizations of existing PSH capacity and energy storage specifications. Shifting energy across seasons for both hydropower and PSH is explored to demonstrate the potential value of long-duration storage. New representations of hydropower upgrades offer opportunities to increase dispatchability, add pumps, or independently add capacity or energy depending on what is most valuable. New model structures and data are demonstrated individually and in combination to observe their impact on model results and provide initial insights into what is most important for analysts, electricity system planners, and hydropower decision-makers to consider when assessing future roles of hydropower. Improving flexibility of existing hydropower assets has the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions through complementing VG technologies and/or improve electricity system economics by reducing the need to deploy higher-cost systems. Large-scale energy storage is also shown to provide opportunities for balancing seasonal differences in VG, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV). Initial analysis with a new closed-loop PSH resource and cost dataset also demonstrate the potential for new PSH deployment to offer new grid flexibility opportunities. Future analysis and modeling of hydropower's role in the U.S. and other electricity systems could include methodological improvements based on those discussed here along with sensitivity analysis to better represent current and future potential hydropower and PSH flexibility. Improvements to geospatial and site-level data can further improve the understanding of how hydropower and PSH can be upgraded and operated in response to future electricity system needs. This work lays the groundwork to use advanced planning models to explore the range of roles hydropower and PSH can play in the grid of the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

F-14 modeling study

Preliminary results in the application of a closed loop pilot/simulator model to the analysis of some simulator fidelity issues are discussed in the context of an air to air target tracking task. The closed loop model is described briefly. Then, problem simplifications that are employed to reduce computational costs are discussed. Finally, model results showing sensitivity of performance to various assumptions concerning the simulator and/or the pilot are presented.

Levison, W. H.↗

NASA NTRS2015

On the Feasibility of Monitoring Carbon Monoxide in the Lower Troposphere from a Constellation of Northern Hemisphere Geostationary Satellites (PART 1)

By the end of the current decade, there are plans to deploy several geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite missions for atmospheric composition over North America, East Asia and Europe with additional missions proposed. Together, these present the possibility of a constellation of geostationary platforms to achieve continuous time-resolved high-density observations over continental domains for mapping pollutant sources and variability at diurnal and local scales. In this paper, we use a novel approach to sample a very high global resolution model (GEOS-5 at 7 km horizontal resolution) to produce a dataset of synthetic carbon monoxide pollution observations representative of those potentially obtainable from a GEO satellite constellation with predicted measurement sensitivities based on current remote sensing capabilities. Part 1 of this study focuses on the production of simulated synthetic measurements for air quality OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments). We simulate carbon monoxide nadir retrievals using a technique that provides realistic measurements with very low computational cost. We discuss the sampling methodology: the projection of footprints and areas of regard for geostationary geometries over each of the North America, East Asia and Europe regions; the regression method to simulate measurement sensitivity; and the measurement error simulation. A detailed analysis of the simulated observation sensitivity is performed, and limitations of the method are discussed. We also describe impacts from clouds, showing that the efficiency of an instrument making atmospheric composition measurements on a geostationary platform is dependent on the dominant weather regime over a given region and the pixel size resolution. These results demonstrate the viability of the "instrument simulator" step for an OSSE to assess the performance of a constellation of geostationary satellites for air quality measurements.

GEOS-5↗

NASA NTRS2016

Seat Capacity Selection for an Advanced Short-Haul Aircraft Design

A study was performed to determine the target seat capacity for a proposed advanced short-haul aircraft concept projected to enter the fleet by 2030. This analysis projected the potential demand in the U.S. for a short-haul aircraft using a transportation theory approach, rather than selecting a target seat capacity based on recent industry trends or current market demand. A transportation systems model was used to create a point-to-point network of short-haul trips and then predict the number of annual origin-destination trips on this network. Aircraft of varying seat capacities were used to meet the demand on this network, assuming a single aircraft type for the entire short-haul fleet. For each aircraft size, the ticket revenue and operational costs were used to calculate a total market profitability metric for all feasible flights. The different aircraft sizes were compared, based on this market profitability metric and also the total number of annual round trips and markets served. Sensitivity studies were also performed to determine the effect of changing the aircraft cruise speed and maximum trip length. Using this analysis, the advanced short-haul aircraft design team was able to select a target seat capacity for their design.

Marien, Ty V.↗

DOE OSTI2021

All-aerosol-jet-printed highly sensitive and selective polyaniline-based ammonia sensors: a route toward low-cost, low-power gas detection

In this work, we report the design and scalable fabrication of a low-cost and low-power polyaniline-based (PANI) ammonia (NH3) gas sensor on polyimide (PI) substrates using additive manufacturing techniques. The silver interdigitated electrode (IDE) arrays and conducting polymer films are printed onto PI using a direct-write technology of aerosol-jet printing. Morphological characteristics are examined by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray analysis which reveal homogeneously printed PANI film on the IDE platform. The gas sensing performance is evaluated in the analytical early leak detection range of 5–1000 ppm NH3 in air as a function of both thermal (23 °C, 50 °C, 80 °C) and relative humidity (RH = 0%, 30%, 50%) exposures. The sensor exhibits sensitivity down to 5 ppm NH3 with a sub-ppm detection limit and good repeatability. We observe rapid NH3 detection at 0% RH with very extended times for equilibration and recovery. However, at both 30 and 50% RH, the room temperature response and recovery times are reduced to only about 1 min and 5 min, respectively. Experiments also reveal good sensitivity toward the analyte even at higher operating temperatures. Present results merit the practical application of aerosol-jet-printed, low-power sensors for industrial applications where low-level hazardous gas detection is essential.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the numerical sensitivity of cellular automata grain structure predictions to large thermal gradients and cooling rates

Cellular automata (CA) models of as-solidified grain structure, originally developed and applied to casting, have become a common means of predicting grain structure resulting from Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes. The majority of these models are based on the decentered octahedron approach, which attempts to correct for the effect of grid anisotropy on the prediction of competitive solidification of dendritic grains. However, AM solidification occurs under cooling rates ($\dot{T}$) and thermal gradients (G) that are orders of magnitude larger than those encountered in casting, and no systematic investigation on the effect of the CA model cell size (Δx) and time step (Δt) on AM microstructure predictions has been performed. Here, in this study, such an investigation is first performed via simulation of individual grains of various crystallographic orientations with a fixed, unidirectional G, showing that CA prediction of the steady-state undercooling matched the expected values based on the interfacial response function at small G and deviated from the expected values at large G. Simulation of competitive growth of multiple grains showed a weakening of the predicted texture as G and Δx became large. Simulation of solidification under AM conditions, where G and $\dot{T}$ vary spatially across the melt pools, showed that not only does grain selection weaken and deviate from expectations at large Δx, but grains with crystallographic $\langle$100$\rangle$ aligned with the grid directions are more adversely affected by the temperature field discontinuities than grains with other crystallographic orientations. Despite the fact that the exact grain competition results depended on Δt, the overall texture development was notably less sensitive to Δt than Δx, provided that a reasonable value of Δt is selected based on the ratio of Δx to the maximum local solidification velocity in the simulation domain. Finally, from the directional solidification and AM simulation results, an analysis of computational cost compared to simulation resolution is performed based on an equation derived to quantify the relatively inaccuracy in grain selection based on the model and temperature field inputs. From this analysis, it is concluded that there is a need for algorithmic improvements to improve CA grain competition accuracy for large G processing conditions as sufficiently small Δx to resolve the necessary competition is intractable for many AM processing conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1975

Evaluation of film type QX 807 (SO-368, Kodak Ektachrome MS, Estar thin base, with an equivalent Wratten 2A filter overcoat)

A color film with a sensitivity and color balance equal to SO-368, Kodak MS Ektachrome (Estar thin base) was required for use on the Apollo-Soyuz test project (ASTP). A Wratten 2A filter was required for use with the film to reduce short wavelength effects which frequently produce a blue color balance in aerial photographs. The background regarding a special emulsion which was produced with a 2A filter equivalent as an integral part of an SO-368 film manufactured by Eastman Kodak, the cost for production of the special film, and the results of a series of tests made within PTD to certify the film for ASTP use are documented. The tests conducted and documented were physical inspection, process compatibility, effective sensitivity, color balance, cross section analysis, resolution, spectral sensitivity, consistency of results, and picture sample analysis.

Lockwood, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are needed as well as improved usage of risk data by decision-makers. More and better ways to display and communicate cost and cost risk to management are required.

Dean, ED↗

NASA NTRS2001

Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) for a 3-D Flexible Wing

The formulation and implementation of an optimization method called Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) are extended from single discipline analysis (aerodynamics only) to multidisciplinary analysis - in this case, static aero-structural analysis - and applied to a simple 3-D wing problem. The method aims to reduce the computational expense incurred in performing shape optimization using state-of-the-art Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flow analysis, Finite Element Method (FEM) structural analysis and sensitivity analysis tools. Results for this small problem show that the method reaches the same local optimum as conventional optimization. However, unlike its application to the win,, (single discipline analysis), the method. as I implemented here, may not show significant reduction in the computational cost. Similar reductions were seen in the two-design-variable (DV) problem results but not in the 8-DV results given here.

Gumbert, Clyde R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) for a 3-D Flexible Wing

The formulation and implementation of an optimization method called Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) are extended from single discipline analysis (aerodynamics only) to multidisciplinary analysis - in this case, static aero-structural analysis and applied to a simple 3-D wing problem. The method aims to reduce the computational expense incurred in performing shape optimization using state-of-the-art Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flow analysis, Finite Element Method (FEM) structural analysis and sensitivity analysis tools. Results for this small problem show that the method reaches the same local optimum as conventional optimization. However, unlike its application to the rigid wing (single discipline analysis), the method, as implemented here, may not show significant reduction in the computational cost. Similar reductions were seen in the two-design-variable (DV) problem results but not in the 8-DV results given here.

Gumbert, Clyde R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Parametric Study on Using Active Debris Removal for LEO Environment Remediation

Recent analyses on the instability of the orbital debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 have reignited the interest in using active debris removal (ADR) to remediate the environment. There are; however, monumental technical, resource, operational, legal, and political challenges in making economically viable ADR a reality. Before a consensus on the need for ADR can be reached, a careful analysis of its effectiveness must be conducted. The goal is to demonstrate the need and feasibility of using ADR to better preserve the future environment and to guide its implementation to maximize the benefit-to-cost ratio. This paper describes a new sensitivity study on using ADR to stabilize the future LEO debris environment. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of several key parameters, including target selection criteria/constraints and the starting epoch of ADR implementation. Additional analyses on potential ADR targets among the currently existing satellites and the benefits of collision avoidance maneuvers are also included.

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