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DOE OSTI2021

A Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution systems with respect to stochastic PV and load variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a data-driven framework for GSA of distribution systems. In particular, two representative surrogate modeling-based approaches are developed, including the traditional Gaussian process-based and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) kernel ones. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol indices can be conveniently calculated through either the sampling-based method or the analytical method to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to variations of PV and load power injections. The sampling-based method approximates the Sobol indices using Monte Carlo simulations while the analytical method calculates them by resorting to the ANOVA expansion framework. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the unbalanced three-phase IEEE 37-bus and 123-bus distribution systems show that the proposed framework can achieve much higher computational efficiency with negligible loss of accuracy. The results on a real 240-node distribution system using actual smart meter data further validate the feasibility and scalability of the proposed framework.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Validation of NOvA's Convolutional Neural Network for Electron (Anti)Neutrino Selection

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment, designed to make measurements of several oscillation parameters using muon neutrino disappearance and electron neutrino appearance. It consists of two functionally equivalent detectors and utilizes the Fermilab NuMI neutrino beam. NOvA uses a convolutional neural network for particle identification of electron neutrino events with a validation process that includes several data-driven techniques. These Muon Removed studies ensure that our classifier performs the same on data as it does on simulation. In particular, Muon Removed Electron-Added studies involve selecting muon neutrino charged current events from both data and simulation and replacing the muon with a simulated electron of similar energy. For Muon Removed Bremsstrahlung and Muon Removed Decay-in-Flight studies, we remove muonic hits from cosmic muons that have either experienced Bremsstrahlung radiation or decayed in flight, producing samples of pure electromagnetic showers. Each of these electron neutrino-like samples are then evaluated by our classifier to obtain selection efficiencies. Our most recent analysis showed good agreement in the electron selection efficiency between data and simulation using these techniques. Furthermore, these cross-checks can be extended to corrections to our predicted electron neutrino signal. The impact of one such set of corrections on the overall analysis results were also evaluated in thesis.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven evaluation of HVAC operation and savings in commercial buildings

Commercial buildings consumed 36% of electricity, or 1.35 trillion kWh, in the United States in 2017, and almost 30% of this energy was wasted. Much of this loss can be attributed to inefficient heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. By improving the operational conditions of HVAC, significant savings can be achieved. However, most buildings and building equipment do not use costly sub-meters to monitor and address performance issues, and on-site auditing can be expensive and insufficient. Alternatively in this study, we propose a data-driven method to identify savings opportunities using only whole building meter data and without setting foot in the building. For this purpose, we introduced two algorithms that virtually quantify the value of a thermostat setpoint setback and HVAC rescheduling. Additionally, we developed novel methods for detecting occupancy patterns and quantifying the baseload of the HVAC operation. Using a clustering algorithm, we identified those buildings for which HVAC savings was significant and further categorized the buildings based on their potential for savings. A population study of over 432 commercial buildings demonstrated a median percentage energy savings of 1.6% from a baseload reduction and 2.1% from HVAC rescheduling. Additionally, results indicate that retail buildings have the highest potential for savings among the building types studied.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Determining Stellar Elemental Abundances from DESI Spectra with the Data-driven Payne

Abstract Stellar abundances for a large number of stars provide key information for the study of Galactic formation history. Large spectroscopic surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and LAMOST take median-to-low-resolution (R≲ 5000) spectra in the full optical wavelength range for millions of stars. However, the line-blending effect in these spectra causes great challenges for elemental abundance determination. Here we employDD-Payne, a data-driven method regularized by differential spectra from stellar physical models, to the DESI early data release spectra for stellar abundance determination. Our implementation delivers 15 labels, including effective temperatureT eff , surface gravity log g , microturbulence velocityv mic , and the abundances for 12 individual elements, namely C, N, O, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Ni. Given a spectral signal-to-noise ratio of 100 per pixel, the internal precisions of the label estimates are about 20 K forT eff , 0.05 dex for log g , and 0.05 dex for most elemental abundances. These results agree with the theoretical limits from the Crámer–Rao bound calculation within a factor of 2. The majority of the accreted halo stars contributed by the Gaia–Enceladus–Sausage are discernible from the disk and in situ halo populations in the resultant [Mg/Fe]–[Fe/H] and [Al/Fe]–[Fe/H] abundance spaces. We also provide distance and orbital parameters for the sample stars, which spread over a distance out to ∼100 kpc. The DESI sample has a significantly higher fraction of distant (or metal-poor) stars than the other existing spectroscopic surveys, making it a powerful data set for studying the Galactic outskirts. The catalog is publicly available.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance analysis and comparison of data-driven models for predicting indoor temperature in multi-zone commercial buildings

Building thermal models, which characterize the properties of a building’s envelope and thermal mass, are essential for accurate indoor temperature and cooling/heating demand prediction. Because of their flexibility and ease of use, data-driven models are increasingly used. Here, this study compared and analyzed the performance of gray-box (resistance-capacitance) and black-box (recurrent neural network) models for predicting indoor air temperature in a real multi-zone commercial building. The developed resistance-capacitance model served as a benchmark model for which full sets of temporal data and building information were used as inputs. The recurrent neural network models were trained and tested assuming various available types and amounts of temporal data and known building physical information to investigate the effects of data and information availability. Feature importance analysis was conducted to select the key variables for different prediction targets under different scenarios. This research provides guidance in selecting an appropriate building thermal response modeling method based on the measured data availability, building physical information, and application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constructing Data-Driven Predictions at the Far Detector for NOvA's Neutrino Oscillation Analysis.

NOvA, is a two-detector, long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment located at Fermilab, Batavia, IL, USA. It is designed primarily to constrain neutrino oscillation parameters using $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ disappearance and $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ appearance data. The Neutrinos at Main Injector (NuMI) beamline at Fermilab provides a high purity 900 KW intense beam of neutrinos and anti-neutrinos to NOvA. The NOvA Near Detector, located 100m underground and 1km away from the beam source, observes the un-oscillated $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and beam $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ event spectrum. The Far Detector, located in Ash River, MN, USA, is 809 km from the ND and records the oscillated $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ and the un-oscillated $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ event spectrum. NOvA uses a data-driven technique called extrapolation to predict the expected number of $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ events at the Far Detector using the Near Detector data. The use of data from a functionally equivalent Near Detector provides a powerful constraint on the systematic uncertainties in NOvA neutrino oscillation analyses. As NOvA continues to add data statistics, a robust constraint on systematics becomes more crucial for neutrino oscillation analysis. The details of the NOvA neutrino oscillation analysis framework and how it constrains dominant systematic uncertainties using the Near Detector data will be discussed in this poster.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven Quasi-static Surrogate Models for Nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems

The integration of nuclear power into energy systems presents a promising avenue to address the growing global energy demands while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven quasi-static surrogate model for nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems (IES) that comprises various components, including a small modular reactor (SMR), steam manifold, balance of plant (BOP), high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE), and district heating (DH) system. Traditional physics-based models for these components often entail significant computational resource and time consumption, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. The development of a complete surrogate model for the IES involves the creation of individual surrogate models for each component, leveraging machine learning techniques and simulated data. These isolated surrogate models are subsequently integrated, enabling a holistic view of the IES and reducing the computational burden associated with detailed physics-based simulations. This paper outlines the development process, validation, and the performance evaluation of the surrogate models. The exceptional performance, with low root-mean-squared errors and R-squared scores of at least 99.8% across all individual surrogate models, underscores their accuracy and practical applicability. These results demonstrate the potential of these models to expedite the analysis of nuclear-powered IES, offering insights that can shape future research and development efforts.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven Quasi-static Surrogate Model for Nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems

The integration of nuclear power into energy systems presents a promising avenue to address the growing global energy demands while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven quasi-static surrogate model for nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems (IES) that comprises various components, including a small modular reactor (SMR), energy manifold (EM), balance of plant (BOP), high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE), and district heating (DH) system. Traditional physics-based models for these components often entail significant computational overhead and time consumption, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. The development of a complete surrogate model for the IES involves the creation of individual surrogate models for each component, leveraging machine learning techniques and simulated data. These isolated surrogate models are subsequently integrated, enabling a holistic view of the IES and reducing the computational burden associated with detailed physics-based simulations. This paper outlines the development process, validation, and the performance evaluation of the surrogate models. The findings shed light on the accuracy and applicability of the surrogate models in practical scenarios, demonstrating their potential to expedite the analysis of nuclear-powered IES and inform future research and development efforts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Data‐Driven Discovery of High‐Performance Silver Selenide‐Based Thermoelectric Composites

Optimizing material compositions often enhances thermoelectric performances. However, the large selection of possible base elements and dopants results in a vast composition design space that is too large to systematically search using solely domain knowledge. To address this challenge, a hybrid data-driven strategy that integrates Bayesian optimization (BO) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed to optimize the composition of five elements (Ag, Se, S, Cu, and Te) in AgSe-based thermoelectric materials. Data is collected from the literature to provide prior knowledge for the initial GPR model, which is updated by actively collected experimental data during the iteration between BO and experiments. Within seven iterations, the optimized AgSe-based materials prepared using a simple high-throughput ink mixing and blade coating method deliver a high power factor of 2100 µW m −1 K −2 , which is a 75% improvement from the baseline composite (nominal composition of Ag 2 Se 1 ). In conclusion, the success of this study provides opportunities to generalize the demonstrated active machine learning technique to accelerate the development and optimization of a wide range of material systems with reduced experimental trials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reduced order models for thermal radiative transfer problems based on moment equations and data-driven approximations of the Eddington tensor

Here a new group of structure and asymptotic preserving reduced-order models (ROMs) for multidimensional nonlinear thermal radiative transfer (TRT) problems is presented. They are formulated by means of the nonlinear projective approach and data compression techniques. The nonlinear projection is applied to the Boltzmann transport equation (BTE) to derive a hierarchy of low-order moment equations. Approximation of the Eddington tensor that provides exact closure for the system of moment equations is found with projection-based data-driven methodologies. These include the (i) proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), (ii) dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) and (iii) a variant of the DMD. A parameterization is derived for this ROM for the temperature of radiation incoming to the problem domain (the radiation drive temperature). This parameterization is informed from results of a dimensionless study of the TRT problem. Analysis of the ROMs is performed on the classical Fleck-Cummings TRT multigroup test problem in 2D geometry with a radiation-driven Marshak wave. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the performance of these ROMs for the simulation of evolving radiation and heat waves. Results show these models to be sufficiently accurate for practical computations with rather low-rank representations of the Eddington tensor. As the rank of the approximation is increased, the errors of solutions generated by the ROMs gradually decreases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Report for Task 11 & 12: Components and Capabilities of the Resiliency Driven Outage Management and Feeder Restoration System (Deliverable D8))

This report provides progress update for the development of a outage management, feeder restoration, and restoration action feasibility check modules as part of the AGGREGATE project. Details for integration with controllability module, data driven situational awareness of network and distributed energy resources as well cyber security plan for these modules integrated with GE ADMS are also presented in the report. These three modules for outage management, feeder restoration, and restoration action feasibility check modules are developed in MATLAB and validated with a modified IEEE 123-node feeder. Results demonstrate ability of these new modules to improve the restoration process post-disaster to enhance the system resilience.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Solar-Thermal Systems Performance under Transient Operation Using a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach Based on the Deep Operator Network Architecture

Modeling and prediction of the dynamic behavior of thermal systems operating under intermittent energy input and variable load requirements represent one of the greatest challenges in the development of efficient and reliable renewable-based power generation technologies. In this work, a data-driven machine learning modeling framework was developed based on a modified version of the Deep Operator Network architecture where the time coordinate in the trunk net is replaced with historical data of the predicting quantity. The modeling framework can be used to accurately predict the performance of renewable-based energy conversion technologies including wind- and solar-based power plants. This novel framework was applied on a solar-thermal system that consists of a solar collection loop using a flat plate collector, a power generation loop comprising an Organic Rankine Cycle, and a thermal energy storage tank connecting both loops. Variable solar irradiance, air temperature, and power load profiles were used by the Deep Operator Network to predict the State-of-Charge and the efficiency of the thermal system for several days. The results were compared with the State-of-Charge and efficiency functions calculated using a physics-based model. For a simple operation scenario, characterized by a clear sky solar irradiance profile and constant load, the standard deviation in the State-of-Charge prediction by Deep Operator Network is below 0.9% during a seven-day prediction time horizon. For the most realistic operation scenario that considers real solar irradiance and a rough load profile, the maximum standard deviation in the predictions for the State-of-Charge and efficiency are below 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively. A comparison between Deep Operator Network and Long Short Term Memory network was also performed. In general, both networks predict very well the State-of-Charge for different data density conditions; however, a higher accuracy, with a standard deviation below 2.0%, is obtained by the Deep Operator Network during three and half days using sparser training data of 20-minute points. The same accuracy for the State-of-Charge prediction with the Long Short Term Memory network is achieved only for 14 h. Average standard deviations for the State-of-Charge prediction of 1.1% with the Deep Operator Network and 1.5% with the Long Short Term Memory network are obtained for a four-day prediction time using a denser training data of 5-minute points.

DeepONet↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Generic Turbines for Distributed Wind Modeling, Optimization, and Economic Studies

As distributed energy resources (DER) become less expensive and more popular, utilities, project developers, and customers have an increasing need to model the performance of existing and proposed DER systems. Distributed wind has been shown to have widespread economic potential but is often represented by a simplified model in - or excluded from - DER modeling tools and studies. There is often no economic imperative to extend models and studies to give full consideration to distributed wind. We present a set of data-driven generic turbines derived from 16 years of annual distributed wind market survey data. The proposed methodology can be used to derive generic turbines from separate or updated data sets. Finally, a mixed-integer linear programming approach to optimal distributed wind project sizing is used to demonstrate the generic turbine models. Combined, these models and methods can reduce barriers to considering distributed wind in modeling tools and studies.

Reiman, Andrew P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wide-Scale Clinical Implementation of Knowledge-Based Planning: An Investigation of Workforce Efficiency, Need for Post-automation Refinement, and Data-Driven Model Maintenance

Our purpose was to investigate the effect of automated knowledge-based planning (KBP) on real-world clinical workflow efficiency, assess whether manual refinement of KBP plans improves plan quality across multiple disease sites, and develop a data-driven method to periodically improve KBP automated planning routines.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Driven Correlated Noise Simulation for the ICEBERG LArTPC

Accurate electronic-noise simulation is essential for low-energy physics in liquid-argon TPCs. More realistic noise modeling allows us to better tune reconstruction algorithms and more reliably assess and optimize signal-detection thresholds. We present a data-driven noise simulation framework developed for the ICEBERG test stand for DUNE that generates synthetic noise waveforms that reproduce both (i) the measured per-channel magnitude of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and (ii) frequency-dependent channel-to-channel correlations observed in ICEBERG noise data. Using a dedicated noise-only dataset, we build a compact noise model containing per-channel FFT-magnitude targets together with a small set of band-wise cross-wire color matrices. White noise is generated in the frequency domain by drawing circular-symmetric complex Gaussian coefficients with random phases and scaling them to match the measured FFT-magnitude targets, and cross-wire correlations are subsequently imposed using the stored color matrices. The model and algorithm were integrated into the LArSoft + Wire-Cell Toolkit simulation chain and validated by comparing waveform structure, frequency-domain spectra, and band-limited correlation matrices from simulated noise and ICEBERG data. This approach can be extended to other LArTPC operating conditions.

Ghosh, Avik [Iowa State U.]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Data-Driven Sampling via Multi-Criteria Importance Analysis

Although supercomputers are becoming increasingly powerful, their components have thus far not scaled proportionately. Compute power is growing enormously and is enabling finely resolved simulations that produce never-before-seen features. However, I/O capabilities lag by orders of magnitude, which means only a fraction of the simulation data can be stored for post hoc analysis. Prespecified plans for saving features and quantities of interest do not work for features that have not been seen before. Data-driven intelligent sampling schemes are needed to detect and save important parts of the simulation while it is running. Here, we propose a novel sampling scheme that reduces the size of the data by orders-of-magnitude while still preserving important regions. The approach we develop selects points with unusual data values and high gradients. Finally, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional sampling schemes on a number of tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cutting force estimation from machine learning and physics-inspired data-driven models utilizing accelerometer measurements

Monitoring cutting forces for process control may be challenging because force measurements typically require invasive instrumentation. To remedy this situation, two new methods were recently developed to estimate cutting forces in real time based on the use of on-machine accelerometer measurements. One method uses machine learning, while another uses a physics-inspired data-driven approach, to generate a model that estimates cutting forces from on-machine accelerations. The estimated forces from both approaches were compared against cutting force data collected during various milling operations on several machine tools. The results reveal the advantages and disadvantages of each model to estimate real-time cutting forces.

Vogl, Greg↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lockdown impacts on residential electricity demand in India: A data-driven and non-intrusive load monitoring study using Gaussian mixture models

This study evaluates the effect of complete nationwide lockdown in 2020 on residential electricity demand across 13 Indian cities and the role of digitalisation using a public smart meter dataset. We undertake a data-driven approach to explore the energy impacts of work-from-home norms across five dwelling typologies. Our methodology includes climate correction, dimensionality reduction and machine learning-based clustering using Gaussian Mixture Models of daily load curves. Results show that during the lockdown, maximum daily peak demand increased by 150-200% as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels for one room-units (RM1), one bedroom-units (BR1) and two bedroom-units (BR2) which are typical for low- and middle-income families. While the upper-middle- and higher-income dwelling units (i.e., three (3BR) and more-than-three bedroom-units (M3BR)) saw night-time demand rise by almost 44% in 2020, as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. Our results also showed that new peak demand emerged for the lockdown period for RM1, BR1 and BR2 dwelling typologies. We found that the lack of supporting socioeconomic and climatic data can restrict a comprehensive analysis of demand shocks using similar public datasets, which informed policy implications for India's digitalisation. We further emphasised improving the data quality and reliability for effective data-centric policymaking.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗