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At least 397 records · Page 22

Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers

Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observed and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. Here we demonstrate that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ) for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective ecological time series. At global scale, our understanding of C fluxes relies on the use of consistently applied land models. Here, we use ITQ to evaluate model structure: The measures are largely insensitive to climatic scenarios, land use and atmospheric gas concentrations used to drive them, but clearly separate the structure of 13 different land models taken from the CMIP5 archive and an observations-based product. In conclusion, diagnostic measures of this kind provide data-analytical tools that distinguish different types of natural processes based solely on their dynamics, and are thus highly suitable for environmental science applications such as model structural diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scalable tuning of building models to hourly data

Energy models of existing buildings are unreliable unless calibrated so they correlate well with actual energy usage. Manual tuning requires a skilled professional, is prohibitively expensive for small projects, imperfect, non-repeatable, non-transferable, and not scalable to the dozens of sensor channels that smart meters, smart appliances, and cheap/ubiquitous sensors are beginning to make available today. A scalable, automated methodology is needed to quickly and intelligently calibrate building energy models to all available data, increase the usefulness of those models, and facilitate speed-and-scale penetration of simulation-based capabilities into the marketplace for actualized energy savings. The "Autotune'' project is a novel, model-agnostic methodology which leverages supercomputing, large simulation ensembles, and big data mining with multiple machine learning algorithms to allow automatic calibration of simulations that match measured experimental data in a way that is deployable on commodity hardware. This paper shares several methodologies employed to reduce the combinatorial complexity to a computationally tractable search problem for hundreds of input parameters. Furthermore, accuracy metrics are provided which quantify model error to measured data for either monthly or hourly electrical usage from a highly-instrumented, emulated-occupancy research home.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Large-scale inverse model analyses employing fast randomized data reduction: INVERSE MODELING WITH DATA REDUCTION

When the number of observations is large, it is computationally challenging to apply classical inverse modeling techniques. We have developed a new computationally efficient technique for solving inverse problems with a large number of observations (e.g., on the order of 10 7 or greater). Our method, which we call the randomized geostatistical approach (RGA), is built upon the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). We employ a data reduction technique combined with the PCGA to improve the computational efficiency and reduce the memory usage. Specifically, we employ a randomized numerical linear algebra technique based on a so-called “sketching” matrix to effectively reduce the dimension of the observations without losing the information content needed for the inverse analysis. In this way, the computational and memory costs for RGA scale with the information content rather than the size of the calibration data. Our algorithm is coded in Julia and implemented in the MADS open-source high-performance computational framework (http://mads.lanl.gov). We apply our new inverse modeling method to invert for a synthetic transmissivity field. Compared to a standard geostatistical approach (GA), our method is more efficient when the number of observations is large. Moreover, our method is capable of solving larger inverse problems than the standard GA and PCGA approaches. Thus, our new model inversion method is a powerful tool for solving large-scale inverse problems. The method can be applied in any field and is not limited to hydrogeological applications such as the characterization of aquifer heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FastQuery: A Parallel Indexing System for Scientific Data

Modern scientific datasets present numerous data management and analysis challenges. State-of-the- art index and query technologies such as FastBit can significantly improve accesses to these datasets by augmenting the user data with indexes and other secondary information. However, a challenge is that the indexes assume the relational data model but the scientific data generally follows the array data model. To match the two data models, we design a generic mapping mechanism and implement an efficient input and output interface for reading and writing the data and their corresponding indexes. To take advantage of the emerging many-core architectures, we also develop a parallel strategy for indexing using threading technology. This approach complements our on-going MPI-based parallelization efforts. We demonstrate the flexibility of our software by applying it to two of the most commonly used scientific data formats, HDF5 and NetCDF. We present two case studies using data from a particle accelerator model and a global climate model. We also conducted a detailed performance study using these scientific datasets. The results show that FastQuery speeds up the query time by a factor of 2.5x to 50x, and it reduces the indexing time by a factor of 16 on 24 cores.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: The Climate of the FVCCM-3 Model - Volume 20

This document describes the climate of version 1 of the NASA-NCAR model developed at the Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model consists of a new finite-volume dynamical core and an implementation of the NCAR climate community model (CCM-3) physical parameterizations. The version of the model examined here was integrated at a resolution of 2 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude and 32 levels. The results are based on assimilation that was forced with observed sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 1979-1995, and are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and various other observational data sets. The results include an assessment of seasonal means, subseasonal transients including the Madden Julian Oscillation, and interannual variability. The quantities include zonal and meridional winds, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, stream function, velocity potential, precipitation, sea level pressure, and cloud radiative forcing.

Suarez, Max J.↗

Curated Modeled Fault Data Set

The curated fault model simulation data set consists of tagged and fully-described time series representing simulated faults for the AFDD test building (ORNLs Flexible Research Platform (FRP)), including baseline performance, faulty performance, and corresponding energy impact. A total of 26 fault models are considered for 99 simulation scenarios with various fault intensity levels. Additional Contacts: Principal investigator: Matt Leach Matt.Leach@nrel.gov Simulation performer: Janghyun Kim Janghyun.Kim@nrel.gov

AFDD↗

Multiscale modeling high-order methods and data-driven modeling

Projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) comprise a promising set of data-driven approaches for accelerating the simulation of high-fidelity numerical simulations. Standard projection-based ROM approaches, however, suffer from several drawbacks when applied to the complex nonlinear dynamical systems commonly encountered in science and engineering. These limitations include a lack of stability, accuracy, and sharp a posteriori error estimators. This work addresses these limitations by leveraging multiscale modeling, least-squares principles, and machine learning to develop novel reduced-order modeling approaches, along with data-driven a posteriori error estimators, for dynamical systems. Theoretical and numerical results demonstrate that the two ROM approaches developed in this work - namely the windowed least-squares method and the Adjoint Petrov - Galerkin method - yield substantial improvements over state-of-the-art approaches. Additionally, numerical results demonstrate the capability of the a posteriori error models developed in this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models

Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Surrogate multi-fidelity data and model fusion for scientific discovery and uncertainty quantification in Earth System Models

This whitepaper addresses the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD)’s predictability challenges in modeling the integrated water cycle and data-model integration. Specifically, it focuses on reducing and characterizing the uncertainty in the representation of process models for unresolved physics, either due to model resolution or limited by the physical under standing or computational efficiency, and the use of observational data for in-situ process parameter optimization within ESM. The described methods may also be used to determine the nature of responses (e.g. strength and direction), and hence to identify critical processes that drive the overall ESM responses to perturbation in the forcing

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unsteady Model Estimation for Generic T-Tail Transport Aircraft Using Computational Data

Models including nonlinear and unsteady behaviors are developed for the longitudinal axis of the NASA Generic T-Tail Aircraft over a large range of angle of attack. These models are based on computational simulations of forced-oscillation tests in a wind tunnel. This work continues a recent study and an ongoing effort by NASA to improve aircraft simulations for pilot training in loss-of-control and stalled conditions. The objective of this work is to develop appropriate aerodynamic models that provide representative responses in simulation for a given class of aircraft. In the stall region, nonlinear unsteady responses are often present and may require an extended aerodynamic model compared to that used in the conventional flight envelope. In this study, two objectives are addressed. The first is to obtain representative models for the NASA Generic T-Tail aircraft over a wide range of angle of attack and the second is to continue development of a specialized CFD test technique that uses Schroeder sweeps to create information rich responses for unsteady aerodynamic model identification.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗

Tidally averaged circulation in Puget Sound sub-basins: Comparison of historical data, analytical model, and numerical model

Through extensive field data collection and analysis efforts conducted since the 1950s, researchers have established an understanding of the characteristic features of circulation in Puget Sound. The pattern ranges from the classic fjordal behavior in some basins, with shallow brackish outflow and compensating inflow immediately below, to the typical two-layer flow observed in many partially mixed estuaries with saline inflow at depth. An attempt at reproducing this behavior by fitting an analytical formulation to past data is presented, followed by the application of a three-dimensional circulation and transport numerical model. The analytical treatment helped identify key physical processes and parameters, but quickly reconfirmed that response is complex and would require site-specific parameterization to include effects of sills and interconnected basins. The numerical model of Puget Sound, developed using unstructured-grid finite volume method, allowed resolution of the sub-basin geometric features, including presence of major islands, and site-specific strong advective vertical mixing created by bathymetry and multiple sills. The model was calibrated using available recent short-term oceanographic time series data sets from different parts of the Puget Sound basin. The results are compared against (1) recent velocity and salinity data collected in Puget Sound from 2006 and (2) a composite data set from previously analyzed historical records, mostly from the 1970s. The results highlight the ability of the model to reproduce velocity and salinity profile characteristics, their variations among Puget Sound subbasins, and tidally averaged circulation. Sensitivity of residual circulation to variations in freshwater inflow and resulting salinity gradient in fjordal sub-basins of Puget Sound is examined.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Forecasting Responses of a Northern Peatland Carbon Cycle to Elevated CO 2 and a Gradient of Experimental Warming

The ability to forecast ecological carbon cycling is imperative to land management in a world where past carbon fluxes are no longer a clear guide in the Anthropocene. However, carbon–flux forecasting has not been practiced routinely like numerical weather prediction. This study explored (1) the relative contributions of model forcing data and parameters to uncertainty in forecasting flux– versus pool–based carbon cycle variables and (2) the time points when temperature and CO 2 treatments may cause statistically detectable differences in those variables. We developed an online forecasting workflow (Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD)), which facilitates iterative data–model integration. EcoPAD automates data transfer from sensor networks, data assimilation, and ecological forecasting. We used the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Experiments data collected from 2011 to 2014 to constrain the parameters in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, forecast carbon cycle responses to elevated CO 2 and a gradient of warming from 2015 to 2024, and specify uncertainties in the model output. Our results showed that data assimilation substantially reduces forecasting uncertainties. Interestingly, we found that the stochasticity of future external forcing contributed more to the uncertainty of forecasting future dynamics of C flux–related variables than model parameters. However, the parameter uncertainty primarily contributes to the uncertainty in forecasting C pool–related response variables. Given the uncertainties in forecasting carbon fluxes and pools, our analysis showed that statistically different responses of fast–turnover pools to various CO 2 and warming treatments were observed sooner than slow–turnover pools. In conclusion, our study has identified the sources of uncertainties in model prediction and thus leads to improve ecological carbon cycling forecasts in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SPASE: Current Uses, Tools, and Plans

The Space Physics Archive Search and Extract (SPASE) project is an international collaboration among Heliophysics (solar and space physics) groups concerned with data acquisition and archiving. Within this community there are a variety of old and new data centers, resident archives, "virtual observatories", etc. acquiring, holding, and distributing data. The main product of the SPASE group is an XML-based SPASE Data Model now in operational use to enable searches for and ultimate acquisition of data of interest to a researcher. The SPASE Data Model defines the content of resource descriptions (metadata). The intent is to describe all SCientifically usable Heliophysics data sets using the Data Model. Another product of the SPASE group, in collaboration with NASA's Virtual Observatories, is a set of tools and services which work with SPASE meta data. This includes Registry Services which can retrieve and render metadata using resource identifiers and facilitate the downloading of the data referenced by the meta data. The SPASE Data Model has also been used as a vocabulary in specialized data models. One example is the Heliophysics Event List Manager (HELM) model. The SPASE Data Model is also being expanded to provide the means for more detailed description of data sets with the aim of enabling more automated ingestion and use of the data through detailed format descriptions. The evolution is based on a number of lessons learned and feedback from our community. Some of the lessons learned are unique to Heliophysics, and some are common to the various data diSCiplines. We will discuss the present state of SPASE usage, the role the SPASE Data Model can play in speCialized data models and how we foresee the development direction in the future.

Thieman, J. R.↗

Optimization of Workload Distribution of Data Centers Based on a Self-Learning In Situ Adaptive Tabulation Model

Data center cooling typically involves non-uniform airflow and temperature distributions, which are affected by the IT workload distribution. It is helpful to simulate the airflow and temperature to optimize the workload distribution. Traditional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation is usually time-consuming while conventional reduced order models (ROMs), though computationally fast, may generate inaccurate results even after being fully trained. In Situ Adaptive Tabulation (ISAT), contracting to conventional ROM, can make prediction with error lower than a user-specified tolerance. To demonstrate using of ISAT for optimal workload distribution in data center, this paper presents a preliminary study of an ISAT-based genetic algorithm optimization platform. The ISAT is trained offline by using the results from CFD simulations using a hypothetical simple data center. The optimal workload distribution determined by the platform leads to approximately 6.8% of energy savings when compared to the benchmark with a uniform workload distribution. We note that the time cost for the entire optimization process, including the training of ISAT is about 4 hours, which is acceptable in the design phase.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Incorporating Satellite Time-Series Data into Modeling

In situ time series observations have provided a multi-decadal view of long-term changes in ocean biology. These observations are sufficiently reliable to enable discernment of even relatively small changes, and provide continuous information on a host of variables. Their key drawback is their limited domain. Satellite observations from ocean color sensors do not suffer the drawback of domain, and simultaneously view the global oceans. This attribute lends credence to their use in global and regional model validation and data assimilation. We focus on these applications using the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model. The enhancement of the satellite data using data assimilation is featured and the limitation of tongterm satellite data sets is also discussed.

Gregg, Watson↗

Dynamic reduction of dimensions of a document vector in a document search and retrieval system

The method and system of the invention involves processing each new document (20) coming into the system into a document vector (16), and creating a document vector with reduced dimensionality (17) for comparison with the data model (15) without recomputing the data model (15). These operations are carried out by a first computer (11) while a second computer (12) updates the data model (18), which can be comprised of an initial large group of documents (19) and is premised on the computing an initial data model (13, 14, 15) to provide a reference point for determining document vectors from documents processed from the data stream (20).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Seasonally Frozen Soil Monitoring Using Passive Microwave Satellite Data and Simulation Modeling

Satellite data and simulation modeling were used to assess seasonally frozen soils in the central US - Canada borders area (46-53 degrees N and 96-108 degrees). We used Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) satellite data to delineate the top layer of frozen soils. SMMR is a passive microwave sensor having five channels (6.6, 10, 18, 21 and 37 GHz) with a horizontal and vertical polarization. SMRR data are available between 1978-1987 with noon and midnight overpass and footprint sizes between 25 km and 150 km. SMMR data were processed from resampled 1/4 degree grid cells during fall freeze-up and spring thaw (fall 1985 - spring 1987). The dielectric properties of a target may directly affect the satellite signal. The dielectric value is an order of magnitude smaller for frozen soil water. There are other significant changes to the emitted microwave signal from changes to the surface physical temperature, attenuation of the soil signal from plant water and soil moisture. We further characterized the temporal and spatial dynamic of frozen soils using the FroST (Frozen Soil Temperature) simulation model. The FroST model was used to further predict soil water and ice content, and soil temperature. SMMR results were compared versus 5-cm soil temperature data from available weather stations (14 in Canada and 11 for available months in the US). SMMR data were analyzed as a function of frequency, polarization, polarization difference, and "frequency gradient". In addition, vegetation density, physical temperature and snow depth were also considered. Preliminary analysis of SMMR derived frozen soil/thaw classification using a simple threshold classification indicates a mean overall classification accuracy by season of 85 percent. A sensitivity analysis for different soils with varying amounts of snow was conducted with FroST, which showed that the amount of snow, and the time of snow fall and melt affected the ice and water content, and depth of thaw. These results indicate a potential source of flooding and erosion under conditions when melting snow and spring rains provide a source of infiltrating water.

Toll, D. L.↗

WaterTAP3 Model Input Data for NAWI's Eight Source Water Baseline Analyses

This folder contains the input data for the WaterTAP3 model that was used for the eight NAWI (National Alliance for Water Innovation) source water baselines studies published in the Environmental Science and Technology special issue: Technology Baselines and Innovation Priorities for Water Treatment and Supply. There are also eight other separate DAMS submissions, one per source water, that include the model results for the published studies. In this data submission, all model inputs across the eight baselines are included. The data structure and content are described in a README.txt file. For more details on how to use the data in WaterTAP3 please refer to the model documentation and GitHub site found at "WaterTAP3 Github" linked in the submission resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗