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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
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NASA NTRS2000

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Specification of Error Statistics

A global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or (SBUV/2) partial ozone profile observations are assimilated. The assimilation, into an off-line ozone transport model, is done using the global Physical-space Statistical Analysis Scheme (PSAS). This system became operational in December 1999. A detailed description of the statistical analysis scheme, and in particular, the forecast and observation error covariance models is given. A new global anisotropic horizontal forecast error correlation model accounts for a varying distribution of observations with latitude. Correlations are largest in the zonal direction in the tropics where data is sparse. Forecast error variance model is proportional to the ozone field. The forecast error covariance parameters were determined by maximum likelihood estimation. The error covariance models are validated using x squared statistics. The analyzed ozone fields in the winter 1992 are validated against independent observations from ozone sondes and HALOE. There is better than 10% agreement between mean Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and analysis fields between 70 and 0.2 hPa. The global root-mean-square (RMS) difference between TOMS observed and forecast values is less than 4%. The global RMS difference between SBUV observed and analyzed ozone between 50 and 3 hPa is less than 15%.

Stajner, Ivanka↗
NASA NTRS1987

Experiments with a three-dimensional statistical objective analysis scheme using FGGE data

A three-dimensional (3D), multivariate, statistical objective analysis scheme (referred to as optimum interpolation or OI) has been developed for use in numerical weather prediction studies with the FGGE data. Some novel aspects of the present scheme include: (1) a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans, which employs an Ekman balance instead of the usual geostrophic relationship, to model the pressure-wind error cross correlations, and (2) the capability to use an error correlation function which is geographically dependent. A series of 4-day data assimilation experiments are conducted to examine the importance of some of the key features of the OI in terms of their effects on forecast skill, as well as to compare the forecast skill using the OI with that utilizing a successive correction method (SCM) of analysis developed earlier. For the three cases examined, the forecast skill is found to be rather insensitive to varying the error correlation function geographically. However, significant differences are noted between forecasts from a two-dimensional (2D) version of the OI and those from the 3D OI, with the 3D OI forecasts exhibiting better forecast skill. The 3D OI forecasts are also more accurate than those from the SCM initial conditions. The 3D OI with the multivariate oceanic surface analysis was found to produce forecasts which were slightly more accurate, on the average, than a univariate version.

Baker, Wayman E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Missing Data and Multiple Imputation: An Unbiased Approach

The default method of dealing with missing data in statistical analyses is to only use the complete observations (complete case analysis), which can lead to unexpected bias when data do not meet the assumption of missing completely at random (MCAR). For the assumption of MCAR to be met, missingness cannot be related to either the observed or unobserved variables. A less stringent assumption, missing at random (MAR), requires that missingness not be associated with the value of the missing variable itself, but can be associated with the other observed variables. When data are truly MAR as opposed to MCAR, the default complete case analysis method can lead to biased results. There are statistical options available to adjust for data that are MAR, including multiple imputation (MI) which is consistent and efficient at estimating effects. Multiple imputation uses informing variables to determine statistical distributions for each piece of missing data. Then multiple datasets are created by randomly drawing on the distributions for each piece of missing data. Since MI is efficient, only a limited number, usually less than 20, of imputed datasets are required to get stable estimates. Each imputed dataset is analyzed using standard statistical techniques, and then results are combined to get overall estimates of effect. A simulation study will be demonstrated to show the results of using the default complete case analysis, and MI in a linear regression of MCAR and MAR simulated data. Further, MI was successfully applied to the association study of CO2 levels and headaches when initial analysis showed there may be an underlying association between missing CO2 levels and reported headaches. Through MI, we were able to show that there is a strong association between average CO2 levels and the risk of headaches. Each unit increase in CO2 (mmHg) resulted in a doubling in the odds of reported headaches.

Foy, M.↗
NASA NTRS1971

A computerized program for statistical treatment of biological data

Biologists frequently conduct experiments which measure the patterns of inactivation of bacterial populations after exposure to a lethal environment. A computer program is discussed which calculates many of the quantities that have proven to be useful in the analysis of such experimental data.

Roark, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Statistical interpretation of pollution data from satellites

The NIMBUS-G environmental monitoring satellite has an instrument (a gas correlation spectrometer) onboard for measuring the mass of a given pollutant within a gas volume. The present paper treats the problem: How can this type measurement be used to estimate the distribution of pollutant levels in a metropolitan area. Estimation methods are used to develop this distribution. The pollution concentration caused by a point source is modeled as a Gaussian plume. The uncertainty in the measurements is used to determine the accuracy of estimating the source strength, the wind velocity, diffusion coefficients and source location.

Smith, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A method of using cluster analysis to study statistical dependence in multivariate data

A technique is presented that uses both cluster analysis and a Monte Carlo significance test of clusters to discover associations between variables in multidimensional data. The method is applied to an example of a noisy function in three-dimensional space, to a sample from a mixture of three bivariate normal distributions, and to the well-known Fisher's Iris data.

Borucki, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A statistical analysis of simulated data from potential stratospheric satellite missions

A simplified one-dimensional model is used to analyze simulated data from typical proposed satellite measurements of trace species in the stratosphere. Uncertainties are introduced in simulated species concentration measurements and applied to the basic physical and chemical model data. The results of the calculations are then used to predict uncertainties in the species concentrations computed by the model. Candidate satellite missions can be evaluated for net information acquired by applying the error analysis. An abbreviated depiction of the computational procedure is given, and sample histograms based on an accumulation of 200 calculations are shown for H2O2 and ClNO3, demonstrating that emergent species distributions are roughly Gaussian in the logarithm of number density. Calculated vertical concentration profiles for these two species are presented.

Nealy, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Statistical analysis of failure data on controllers and SSME turbine blade failures

The expressions for the maximum likelihood functions are given when the failure data are censored at a given point or at multiple points, or when the data come in groups. Different models applicable to failure data are presented with their characteristics. A graphical method of distinguishing different models by using cumulative hazard fucnction is discussed. For the failure data on controllers the model is determined by cumulative hazard function and chi-square goodness of fit. Using the Weibull Model the maximum likelihood estimators of the shape parameter and the failure rate parameter are obtained. The confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and B1 are determined. Similarly, for the data on Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) blade failures the maximum likelihood estimators are obtained for the Weibull parameters. The variances, confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and reliability are determined. The analysis is performed under assumption of grouped data as well as randomly placed data.

Patil, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Optical Performance Modeling of FUSE Telescope Mirror

We describe the Metrology Data Processor (METDAT), the Optical Surface Analysis Code (OSAC), and their application to the image evaluation of the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) mirrors. The FUSE instrument - designed and developed by the Johns Hopkins University and launched in June 1999 is an astrophysics satellite which provides high resolution spectra (lambda/Delta(lambda) = 20,000 - 25,000) in the wavelength region from 90.5 to 118.7 nm The FUSE instrument is comprised of four co-aligned, normal incidence, off-axis parabolic mirrors, four Rowland circle spectrograph channels with holographic gratings, and delay line microchannel plate detectors. The OSAC code provides a comprehensive analysis of optical system performance, including the effects of optical surface misalignments, low spatial frequency deformations described by discrete polynomial terms, mid- and high-spatial frequency deformations (surface roughness), and diffraction due to the finite size of the aperture. Both normal incidence (traditionally infrared, visible, and near ultraviolet mirror systems) and grazing incidence (x-ray mirror systems) systems can be analyzed. The code also properly accounts for reflectance losses on the mirror surfaces. Low frequency surface errors are described in OSAC by using Zernike polynomials for normal incidence mirrors and Legendre-Fourier polynomials for grazing incidence mirrors. The scatter analysis of the mirror is based on scalar scatter theory. The program accepts simple autocovariance (ACV) function models or power spectral density (PSD) models derived from mirror surface metrology data as input to the scatter calculation. The end product of the program is a user-defined pixel array containing the system Point Spread Function (PSF). The METDAT routine is used in conjunction with the OSAC program. This code reads in laboratory metrology data in a normalized format. The code then fits the data using Zernike polynomials for normal incidence systems or Legendre-Fourier polynomials for grazing incidence systems. It removes low order terms from the metrology data, calculates statistical ACV or PSD functions, and fits these data to OSAC models for the scatter analysis. In this paper we briefly describe the laboratory image testing of FUSE spare mirror performed in the near and vacuum ultraviolet at John Hopkins University and OSAC modeling of the test setup performed at NASA/GSFC. The test setup is a double-pass configuration consisting of a Hg discharge source, the FUSE off-axis parabolic mirror under test, an autocollimating flat mirror, and a tomographic imaging detector. Two additional, small fold flats are used in the optical train to accommodate the light source and the detector. The modeling is based on Zernike fitting and PSD analysis of surface metrology data measured by both the mirror vendor (Tinsley) and JHU. The results of our models agree well with the laboratory imaging data, thus validating our theoretical model. Finally, we predict the imaging performance of FUSE mirrors in their flight configuration at far-ultraviolet wavelengths.

Saha, Timo T.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Carbon Dioxide Washout Measurement Techniques in the Mark-III Space Suit

A space suit must provide adequate carbon dioxide (CO2) washout inside the helmet to prevent symptoms of hypercapnia. In the past, an oronasal mask has been used to measure the inspired air of suited subjects to determine a space suit's CO2 washout capability. While sufficient for super-ambient pressure testing of space suits, the oronasal mask fails to meet several human factors and operational criterion needed for future sub-ambient pressure testing (e.g. compatibility with a Valsalva device). This paper describes the evaluation of a nasal cannula as a device for measuring inspired air within a space suit. Eight test subjects were tasked with walking on a treadmill or operating an arm ergometer to achieve target metabolic rates of 1000, 2000, and 3000 British thermal units per hour (BTU/hr), at flow rates of 2, 4, and 6 actual cubic feet per minute (ACFM). Each test configuration was conducted twice, with subjects instructed to breathe either through their nose only, or however they felt comfortable. Test data shows that the nasal cannula provides more statistically consistent data across test subjects than the oronasal mask used in previous tests. The data also shows that inhaling/exhaling through only the nose provides a lower sample variance than a normal breathing style. Nose-only breathing reports better CO2 washout due to several possible reasons, including a decreased respiratory rate, an increased tidal volume, and because nose-only breathing directs all of the exhaled CO2 down and away from the oronasal region. The test subjects in this study provided feedback that the nasal cannula is comfortable and can be used with the Valsalva device.

Meginnis, Ian M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Continued Monitoring of Landsat Reflective Band Calibration Using Pseudo-Invariant Calibration Sites

Though both of the current Landsat instruments, Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper+ (ETM+) and Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM), include on-board calibration systems, since 2001, pseudo-invariant calibration sites (PICS) have been added to the suite of metrics to assess the instruments calibration. These sites do not provide absolute calibration data since there are no ground measurements of the sites, but in monitoring these PICS over time, the relative calibration can be tracked. The sites used by the Landsat instruments are primarily in the Saharan Desert. To date, the trending from the PICS sites has confirmed that most of the degradation seen in the ETM+ on-board calibration systems is likely not degradation of the instrument, but rather degradation of the calibration systems themselves. However, the PICS data show statistically significant degradation (at 2-sigma) in all the reflective spectral bands of up to -0.22%/year since July 2003. For the TM, the PICS were instrumental in updating the calibration in 2007 and now suggest two bands may require another update. The data show a statistically significant degradation (at 2-sigma) in Bands 1 and 3 of -0.27 and -0.15%/year, respectively, since March 1999. The data filtering and processing methods are currently being reviewed but these PICS results may lead to an update in the reflective band calibration of both Landsat-7 and Landsat-5.

Barsi, Julia A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Quéré, Corinne Le↗
NASA NTRS1981

Land cover analysis of James City County, Virginia

The approach used to obtain reliable countywide forest resource data, including statistics and a forest cover distribution map from LANDSAT data is described. Comparison of results of the LANDSAT anlysis and U.S. Forestry Survey data is presented in a table. Pine, oak/pine, and oak/hickory accounted for 22.3%, 32.6% and 45.2% respectively of the total forest area in the LANDSAT analysis, compared to 22.8%, 30.1%. and 47.1% in the Forest Survey. The corresponding figures for each forest type differ at most 2.5% for the mixed forest. The total county area in forest land measured using LANDSAT was underestimated by 1,409 acres, a 2.2% error based on the Forest Survey statistics. However, the estimate of 61,242 acres fell well within the known 4% uncertainty of the estimate for the Forest Survey figures (62,651 acres + or - 2,544 acres).

Copony, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Assessment of NDE Reliability Data

Twenty sets of relevant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) reliability data have been identified, collected, compiled, and categorized. A criterion for the selection of data for statistical analysis considerations has been formulated. A model to grade the quality and validity of the data sets has been developed. Data input formats, which record the pertinent parameters of the defect/specimen and inspection procedures, have been formulated for each NDE method. A comprehensive computer program has been written to calculate the probability of flaw detection at several confidence levels by the binomial distribution. This program also selects the desired data sets for pooling and tests the statistical pooling criteria before calculating the composite detection reliability. Probability of detection curves at 95 and 50 percent confidence levels have been plotted for individual sets of relevant data as well as for several sets of merged data with common sets of NDE parameters.

Yee, B. G. W.↗