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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Elastic-wave sensitivity-guided adaptive seismic survey design for cost-effective monitoring of geological carbon storage

Effective seismic monitoring is essential for verifying CO₂ containment, detecting potential leakage, and optimizing operational decisions in geologic carbon storage. Here, this study presents a time-adaptive, elastic-wave sensitivity-guided framework for designing cost-effective seismic monitoring layouts for tracking CO₂ plume migration. The method is based on elastic-wave sensitivity analysis, which quantifies how variations in subsurface properties impact seismic wavefields. Two complementary design strategies are developed: one based on selecting a fixed number of seismic sources (Method A), and the other based on selecting source–receiver pairs contributing to a fixed fraction of cumulative elastic-wave sensitivity energy (Method B). The optimization workflow to identify source–receiver configurations with the highest detection potential is demonstrated using a hypothetical GCS scenario at the Kimberlina site in California using simulations of elastic-wave sensitivity data at multiple post-injection timesteps. Results show that both strategies adapt to evolving plume geometries and wavefield sensitivities, with Method B offering broader spatial coverage and Method A ensuring simpler deployment. This framework enables site-specific, cost-effective, and risk-informed seismic survey designs, enhancing the ability to monitor CO₂ migration over time in evolving geological environments

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Online Optimization for Networked Distributed Energy Resources With Time-Coupling Constraints

This paper proposes a Lyapunov optimization-based online distributed (LOOD) algorithmic framework for active distribution networks (ADNs) with numerous photovoltaic inverters and inverter air conditionings (IACs). In the proposed scheme, ADNs can track an active power setpoint reference at the substation in response to transmission-level requests while concurrently minimizing the social utility loss and ensuring the security of voltages. Conventional distributed optimization methods are rarely feasible to track the optimal solutions in fast variable environments using a fine-grained sampling interval where the underlying optimization problem evolves with the iterations of the algorithms. In contrast, based on the framework of online convex optimization (OCO), the developed approach uses a distributed algebraic update to compute the next round decisions relying on the current feedback of measurements. Notably, the time-coupling constraints of IACs are decoupled for online implementation with Lyapunov optimization technique. An incentive scheme is tailored to coordinate the customer-owned assets in lieu of the direct control from network operators. Optimality and convergency are characterized analytically. Finally, we corroborate the proposed method on a modified version of 33-node test feeder. Benchmark tests show that the proposed method is computationally and economically efficient, and outperforming existing algorithms.

active distribution networks↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Approximation for Multi-period Simulation Optimization with Streaming Input Data

We consider a continuous-valued simulation optimization (SO) problem, where a simulator is built to optimize an expected performance measure of a real-world system while parameters of the simulator are estimated from streaming data collected periodically from the system. At each period, a new batch of data is combined with the cumulative data and the parameters are re-estimated with higher precision. The system requires the decision variable to be selected in all periods. Therefore, it is sensible for the decision-maker to update the decision variable at each period by solving a more precise SO problem with the updated parameter estimate to reduce the performance loss with respect to the target system. We define this decision-making process as the multi-period SO problem and introduce a multi-period stochastic approximation (SA) framework that generates a sequence of solutions. Two algorithms are proposed: Re-start SA (ReSA) reinitializes the stepsize sequence in each period, whereas Warm-start SA (WaSA) carefully tunes the stepsizes, taking both fewer and shorter gradient-descent steps in later periods as parameter estimates become increasingly more precise. We show that under suitable strong convexity and regularity conditions, ReSA and WaSA achieve the best possible convergence rate in expected sub-optimality either when an unbiased or a simultaneous perturbation gradient estimator is employed, while WaSA accrues significantly lower computational cost as the number of periods increases. In addition, we present the regularized ReSA, which obviates the need to know the strong convexity constant and achieves the same convergence rate at the expense of additional computation.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2022

Water and Climate Impacts on ERCOT Long-Term Systems Assessment

Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Post-2026 Environmental Impact Statement Rate Analysis for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a principal power-generating asset within the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP), accounting for approximately 70–80% of CRSP power production over the past two decades. In June 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) issued a Notice of Intent to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) outlining operational guidelines and strategies for Colorado River Basin reservoirs after 2026 (Reclamation, 2023). Power generation is among CRSP’s statutory purposes under the Colorado River Storage Project Act of 1956 (U.S. Congress, 1956). Assessing how alternative policy frameworks affect CRSP power production and the resulting electricity rates for U.S. customers is therefore essential to inform decision-making. This report evaluates projected electricity rates and the market value of electricity from the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) CRSP GCD under multiple post-2026 policy scenarios to support Reclamation’s EIS development. Results from advanced econometric and machine learning models indicate that the Enhanced Coordination alternative (EnhanCoor), Maximum Operational Flexibility alternative (CCA), and Supply Driven - 55 alternative (SD55) alternatives yield more favorable hydropower generation and capacity outcomes, which are objectives outlined in Reclamation’s documentations (Reclamation, 2007; Reclamation, 2016). Specifically, these scenarios are associated with higher electricity production, lower projected rate trajectories, and greater economic value to the U.S. power system from CRSP generation. The remaining five scenarios generally produce lower generation, higher rate trajectories, and reduced long-term market values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring the Future of Mobility: Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model

The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) modeling framework is intended to generate future pathways to achieve system-level goals, estimate implications of different scenarios and decisions, estimate affordability and infrastructure use impacts, assess energy use and emissions implications, inform decision makers, and assess integration opportunities between transportation and energy infrastructure and supply systems.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

BioSTEAM-LCA: An Integrated Modeling Framework for Agile Life Cycle Assessment of Biorefineries under Uncertainty

Biorefineries will play a critical role in sustainable bioeconomies, but projections of their environmental impacts vary widely. A core challenge with life cycle assessments (LCAs) of biorefineries is that they are often disconnected from biorefinery design, simulation, and techno-economic analysis (TEA). This lack of integration is a barrier to early stage technology and process evaluations, reducing consistency and transparency across sustainability indicators while limiting our understanding of the relative importance of individual factors (e.g., design decisions, greenhouse gas emission accounting procedures), how these factors interact, and trade-offs or synergies with process economics. In this study, we propose a new agile LCA framework, BioSTEAMLCA, which layers onto BioSTEAM (Biorefinery Simulation and Techno-Economic Analysis Modules, which automates biorefinery design, simulation, and TEA) to characterize the environmental impacts of biorefineries across a landscape of designs, technology performance assumptions, and contexts. Inventory databases and impact assessment methods are integrated to enable flexible user defined LCA system models, and the implications of uncertainties throughout the production system are characterized via Monte Carlo simulation. To demonstrate the capabilities of BioSTEAMLCA, we present a case study for sugarcane ethanol production. Overall, BioSTEAM-LCA enables computationally efficient, agile gate-to-gate LCA to evaluate biorefinery processes, the production of candidate biofuels and bioproducts, and trade-offs among productivity, economics, and environmental impacts under uncertainty.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Event-Based Energy Impact Tracking and Forecasting with Limited Measurements for Rooftop Units

Packaged air conditioning units and heat pumps, also known as rooftop units (RTUs), are responsible for almost 133 billion kWh of electricity usage annually on site for space cooling U.S. commercial buildings. In addition, the use of heat pumps is a trend we expect to accelerate as buildings transition from fossil fuel-based heating to electricity as a key step for decarbonizing the U.S. commercial buildings sector. However, the operation conditions and energy use of RTUs and heat pumps are usually not well monitored as they are not commonly integrated with building automation systems and lack exposed sensing and control points. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a framework for tracking and forecasting energy impacts resulting from degradation of performance and improved performance for unit servicing using limited data. The proposed framework makes use of a constrained dataset, specifically measurements of the outdoor air temperature and the power demand of individual RTUs, to track and forecast changes in energy use associated with changes in performance over various temporal horizons ranging from days to weeks. Following the detection of an RTU fault, performance degradation, or performance improvement, the framework employs a prediction model to assess the cumulative energy impact. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method with field-collected data for servicing and degradation examples and compare the predicting accuracy of Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) Regression models to Support Vector Regression and Linear Regression models. The results show that GBDT achieved the best accuracy for time-series validation datasets for the servicing and degradation cases, and the prediction model was able to track the cumulative energy impacts of events. The proposed framework can inform building owners of the cumulative change in energy usage of RTUs associated with performance degradation, performance improvement, or a fault.

packaged air conditioners, packaged heat pumps, ro↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resilient Communities, Maryland (RCM): A Framework for Community-Driven Energy Resilience (Final Technical Report)

The Resilient Communities, Maryland (RCM) project integrates community-based participatory research (CBPR) approaches into energy resilience planning. The combination of qualitative, community-driven data and quantitative utility data improves both the effectiveness and efficiency of assessing the impacts of disruptions to energy infrastructure. Centered around a metric of critical services access, RCM created a repeatable framework for evaluating and modeling energy resilience in communities and promoted community engagement, resulting in more equitable stakeholder participation and improved decision-making processes for siting infrastructure to improve community energy resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ORCHID: Orchestrated Retrieval-Augmented Classification of High-Risk Property with Intelligent Decision-Making

High-Risk Property (HRP) classification is critical at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites, where inventories include sensitive and often dual-use equipment. Compliance must track evolving rules designated by various export control policies to make transparent and auditable decisions. Traditional expert-only workflows are time-consuming, backlog-prone, and struggle to keep pace with shifting regulatory boundaries. We propose ORCHID, a modular agentic framework for HRP classification that pairs retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) with human oversight to produce policy based outputs that can be audited. Small cooperating agents—retrieval, description refiner, classifier, validator, and feedback logger—coordinate via agent-to-agent messaging and invoke tools through the Model Context Protocol (MCP) for model-agnostic on-premise operation. The interface follows an "Item to Evidence to Decision" loop with step-by-step reasoning, on-policy citations, and append-only audit bundles (run-cards, prompts, evidence). In preliminary tests on real HRP cases, ORCHID improves accuracy and traceability over a non-agentic baseline while deferring uncertain items to Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). The demonstration shows single item submission, grounded citations, SME feedback capture, and exportable audit artifacts—illustrating a practical path to trustworthy LLM assistance in sensitive DOE compliance workflows.

Das, Sanjay [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000542591915)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Visual Systems Mapping to Define and Compare Woody Biomass LCAs for Sustainable Systems

The challenge addressed in this research centres on the need to choose between several biomass sources and energy production processes, while supporting rural economies and resilience of forest systems. A key barrier to effective decision-making for strategies using biomass is the lack of standardized and transparent life cycle assessment (LCA) baselines. These baselines are critical for assessing the impacts of biomass strategies but often vary due to regional factors and chosen simplifying assumptions of the LCAs. However, omitting key variables can mean the LCA omits key feedback and balancing loops relevant to fully assessing impacts of the change or test scenario. To address these complexities, this project employs a systems engineering approach: visual systems mapping. This technique is used to define the boundaries and dynamic behaviours of LCA baselines, enhancing transparency. By examining five literature sources and their documented baseline scenarios, the systems mapping case-studies demonstrates an approach to documenting and archiving these baselines. Recommendations are that visual systems mapping should be used to document key assumptions, such as baselines, of LCAs. Further, where possible open data repositories should hold key information about LCA baselines and reproducible workflows (e.g., using open-source tools) should be used to improve transparency and comparability in LCAs. Given the consensus within the broader scientific community on the importance of replicable data practices, this research reinforces the need for standardized frameworks and systems engineering tools in LCAs. This research demonstrates a pathway to more transparent, standardized, and comparable LCAs, that may bolster decisions for biomass systems.

Davis, Maggie [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000181319328)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward equitable environmental exposure modeling through convergence of data, open, and citizen sciences: an example of air pollution exposure modeling amidst increasing wildfire smoke

Exposure modeling is critical in environmental epidemiology and human health but may face challenges (e.g., skewed data, unequal error, context-insensitive validation, and computational demands). Modeling decisions reflect the intended use of the models and the values that modelers prioritize. We aimed to provide a conceptual framework and machine learning (ML) modeling protocols that address these issues. With 500m-gridded hourly PM 2.5 and O 3 levels in Illinois before, during, and after the 2023 Canadian wildfire season as a motivating example, we conducted modeling experiments to evaluate modeling methods, guided by three domains we propose based on theories of science: 1) Data Diversity, leveraging open and citizen science data to enhance inclusivity, parsimony, and representativeness; 2) Equitable Accuracy, ensuring fairly distributed uncertainties across subpopulations; and 3) Sustainable Modeling, balancing accuracy with reducing computational demands to promote accessibility for under-resourced researchers. Here, we found that ML with publicly available data can achieve high accuracy. Depending on methods, performance may vary substantially, even with identical input data. Large but skewed data may reduce performance. Misuse of cross-validation protocols can underestimate prediction error; although we observed R 2 s of ∼98 %, the modeled estimates varied significantly, indicating the need for careful model validation. By using new modeling protocols including representativeness-considered training and validation data and a new loss function, we achieved high agreement between estimates and ground-based measurements (e.g., R 2 = ∼90 % for PM 2.5 ; ∼80 % for O 3 ), equally distributed errors across sociodemographic strata and urban–rural divides, and reduction in computation time—from several weeks or months to a few days.

Exposure assessment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

New Era Towards Autonomous Additive Manufacturing: A Review of Recent Trends and Future Perspectives

Abstract The Additive Manufacturing (AM) landscape has significantly transformed in alignment with Industry 4.0 principles, primarily driven by the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Digital Twin (DT). However, current Intelligent Additive Manufacturing (IAM) systems face limitations such as fragmented AI tool usage and suboptimal human-machine interaction (HMI). This paper reviews existing IAM solutions, emphasizing control, monitoring, process autonomy, and end-to-end integration, and identifies key limitations, such as the absence of a high-level controller for global decision-making. To address these gaps, we propose a transition from IAM to Autonomous Additive Manufacturing (AAM), featuring a hierarchical framework with four integrated layers: knowledge, generative solution, operational, and cognitive. In the cognitive layer, AI agents notably enable machines to independently observe, analyze, plan, and execute operations that traditionally require human intervention. These capabilities streamline production processes and expand the possibilities for innovation, particularly in sectors like in-space manufacturing (ISM). Additionally, this paper discusses the role of AI in self-optimization and lifelong learning, positing that the future of AM will be characterized by a symbiotic relationship between human expertise and advanced autonomy, fostering a more adaptive, resilient manufacturing ecosystem.

Fan, Haolin↗
DOE OSTI2026

PRIMO – The Oil & Gas Well Plugging Optimizer

This work presents PRIMO’s main capabilities and introduces the PRIMO web application, an intuitive user interface that leverages our sophisticated mathematical optimization model to rigorously optimize P&A priorities and plugging campaign efficiency. The web app simplifies user interaction, provides a powerful data management framework, and supports a broad user base (e.g., state agencies, well owners/operators, and plugging companies) to use PRIMO for decision-making. Specifically, we provide a demonstration of how to input the information on candidate wells, plugging campaign budget, user-defined priority and efficiency criteria to PRIMO. A real-world case study that consists of 1411 oil and gas wells and impact and efficiency priorities (e.g., well age, well proximity to schools/hospitals, well accessibility, distance between wells in projects) is presented to showcase PRIMO’s core capabilities: (i) ranking a candidate well population based on priorities, (ii) recommending high-impact and high-efficiency P&A projects, and (iii) assigning impact and efficiency scores to projects allowing for rigorous quantitative comparison among them.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Value of Distributed Wind: A Valuation Framework

While there has been an increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption, particularly for solar photovoltaic (PV) DERs, distributed wind deployment is still relatively low. However, distributed wind has significant growth potential for behind-the-meter applications and can provide improved resource diversity and resilience in high-DER grid systems. In order to make optimized decisions about distributed wind deployment, it is important to identify and characterize the value streams of distributed wind in a way that will help policy makers, microgrid developers, utilities, project developers, and others understand the potential value of distributed wind. In our paper, we develop a framework to provide a consistent and comprehensive approach to finding the net benefits of distributed wind to various stakeholders in different scenarios. We do this by considering the main use cases for distributed wind, and then developing a framework which is flexible for these various use cases and the relevant stakeholders while maintaining the same overall structure for analysis. Ongoing work includes applying this framework to valuing two distributed wind power systems, one in a remote village in Alaska and one in a front-of-the-meter deployment in Iowa. Our analysis aims to understand the full value that distributed wind is providing in these systems, including the resilience benefits it is contributing. As a better understanding of distributed wind valuation is gained, it will be easier for stakeholders to make informed decisions in order to have resilient renewable energy systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Basin-Scale Forest Adaptation Scenarios: Wildfire, Streamflow, Biomass, and Economic Recovery Synergies and Trade-Offs

Active forest management is applied in many parts of the western United States to reduce wildfire severity, mitigate vulnerability to drought and bark beetle mortality, and more recently, to increase snow retention and late-season streamflow. A rapidly warming climate accelerates the need for these restorative treatments, but the treatment priority among forest patches varies considerably. We simulated four treatment scenarios across the 3,450 km 2 Wenatchee River basin in eastern Washington, United States. We used a decision support tool (DST) to assess trade-offs and synergies within and among treatments on wildfire risk and smoke emissions, water yield and snow retention, biomass production, and economic return. Treatment scenarios emphasized prescribed burning ( BurnOnly ), biomass production ( MaxBiomass ), gap-based thinning to optimize water yield ( IdealWater ), and a principle-based restoration scenario ( RA1 ). Fire hazard, smoke emissions, and biomass production metrics were evaluated across scenarios using the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and water yields were modeled using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. Simulations were summarized to both patch- (10 1 –10 2 ha) and subwatershed- (10 3 –10 4 ha) scales, and treatment effects were evaluated against an untreated baseline landscape. We used logic models to rank effect sizes by scenario across metrics along a continuum between −1 (no or weak effect) to +1 (large effect). All treatments produced benefits across one or more ecosystem services and led to synergistic benefits to water yield and wildfire hazard reduction. Tradeoffs among resource benefits were clear in wilderness where reliance on prescribed burning without mechanical treatment increased costs and eliminated the potential for biomass recovery. The BurnOnly scenario improved fire risk metrics and streamflow, but effect sizes were lower compared to other treatments. IdealWater showed the strongest benefits overall, demonstrating the ability to capture multiple resource benefits through spatially explicit thinning. Our study provides a framework for integrating strategic and tactical models that evaluate tradeoffs and synergies gained through varied management approaches. We demonstrate the utility of decision support modeling to enhance management synergies across large landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗