Results for “decisions” — Page 22

DOE OSTI2025

Biomass for Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) Counterfactual Decision Tree

Counterfactual is the term used to describe a "business-as-usual" scenario which used as a baseline to compare against a new project, allowing the calculation of net impacts for a life cycle analysis (LCA). The choice of counterfactual is critical for determining the results from LCA and must be carefully justified to ensure a fair and accurate comparison. Using forest residues as an example, this decision tree illustrates decision points to be considered for sustainable biomass sourcing and provides a framework for estimating the carbon emissions or storage under the "business-as-usual” scenarios for biomass otherwise destined for use in Biomass for Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) projects.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2004

A decision support system for technology R&D planning: connecting the dots from information to innovation

This paper describes an information technology innovation developed to assist decision makers faced with complex R&D tasks. The decision support system (DSS) was developed and applied to the analysis of a 10-year, 700 million dollar technology program for the exploration of Mars. The technologies were to enable a 4.8 billion dollar portfolio of exploration flight missions to Mars.

DSS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

risk↗

NASA NTRS2006

Architecting Space Exploration Campaigns: A Decision-Analytic Approach

This paper shows the benefits of Decision Analysis techniques for campaign design and evaluation. Important concepts of decision analysis are reviewed through the lens of designing a campaign to find exploitable equatorial water on Mars. The method developed herein is general to any search campaign. The paper concludes with a discussion of the challenges and opportunities in applying similar techniques to other types of campaigns.

campaigns↗

NASA NTRS2006

Intertwining Risk Insights and Design Decisions

The state of systems engineering is such that a form of early and continued use of risk assessments is conducted (as evidenced by NASA's adoption and use of the 'Continuous Risk Management' paradigm developed by SEI). ... However, these practices fall short of theideal: (1) Integration between risk assessment techniques and other systems engineering tools is weak. (2) Risk assessment techniques and the insights they yield are only informally coupled to design decisions. (3) Individual riskassessment techniques lack the mix of breadth, fidelity and agility required to span the gamut of the design space. In this paper we present an approach that addresses these shortcomings. The hallmark of our approach is a simple representation comprising objectives (what the system is to do), risks (whose occurrence would detract from attainment of objectives) and activities (a.k.a. 'mitigations') that, if performed, will decrease those risks. These are linked to indicate by how much a risk would detract from attainment of an objective, and by how much an activity would reduce a risk. The simplicity of our representational framework gives it the breadth to encompass the gamut of the design space concerns, the agility to be utilized in even the earliest phases of designs, and the capability to connect to system engineering models and higher-fidelity risk tools. It is through this integration that we address the shortcomings listed above, and so achieve the intertwining between risk insights and design decisions needed to guide systems engineering towards superior final designs while avoiding costly rework to achieve them. The paper will use an example, constructed to be representative of space mission design, to illustrate our approach.

systems engineering↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA Wrangler: Automated Cloud-Based Data Assembly in the RECOVER Wildfire Decision Support System

NASA Wrangler is a loosely-coupled, event driven, highly parallel data aggregation service designed to take advantageof the elastic resource capabilities of cloud computing. Wrangler automatically collects Earth observational data, climate model outputs, derived remote sensing data products, and historic biophysical data for pre-, active-, and post-wildfire decision making. It is a core service of the RECOVER decision support system, which is providing rapid-response GIS analytic capabilities to state and local government agencies. Wrangler reduces to minutes the time needed to assemble and deliver crucial wildfire-related data.

decision support↗

NASA NTRS2019

Tactical Scientific Decision-Making during Crewed Astrobiology Mars Missions

The limitations placed upon human explorers on the surface of Mars will necessitate a methodology for scientific exploration that is different from standard approaches to terrestrial fieldwork and prior crewed exploration of the Moon. In particular, the data transmission limitations and communication latency between Earth and Mars create a unique situation for surface crew in contact with a terrestrial science team. The BASALT research program simulated a series of extravehicular activities (EVAs) in Mars analog terrains under various Mars-relevant bandwidth and latency conditions to investigate how best to approach this problem. Here we discuss tactical decision-making under these conditions, that is, how the crew on Mars interacts with a team of scientists and support personnel on Earth to collect samples of maximum scientific interest. We describe the strategies, protocols, and tools tested in BASALT EVAs and give recommendations on how best to conduct human exploration of Mars with support from Earth-based scientists. We find that even with scientists supporting them, the crew performing the exploration must be trained in the appropriate scientific disciplines in order to provide the terrestrial scientists with enough information to make decisions, but that with appropriate planning and structure, and tools such as a ‘‘dynamic leaderboard,’’ terrestrial scientists can add scientific value to an EVA, even under Mars communication latency

Decision-making↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CLINICAL DECISION SUPPORT: PATH TO FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS

Long-duration, deep-space exploration missions present significant challenges to crew health and performance. These challenges include the individual and combined effects of microgravity, radiation exposure, isolation, limited resources (mass, volume, power, data and crew time), limited options for evacuation and those associated with delayed or constrained communications, all of which demand greater crew autonomy. Specifically, as the communication delays intensify the further we explore space, the unqualified need for Earth-independent medical operations focused on autonomous diagnosis, treatment and prevention will be key to mission continuation and success. To augment the requisite knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs) of a time-constrained crew operating under stressful conditions, combatting fatigue, and facing a potential medical crisis, a robust clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a probable solution that would facilitate, guide and inform Earth-independent medical operations, while assisting crewmembers through various clinical presentations. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) is expanding the boundaries of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. ExMC is actively identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: “Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.” Though mass, volume, and power will face increasing constraints, the projected computational capabilities of spacecraft systems will increase exponentially as information technology continues to advance this decade and beyond. Hence, data, software and computational resources will play an essential and synergistic role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance in deep space missions. The focus of the CDS project is to develop recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as a ‘virtual assistant’ for delivering optimal health, performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as an integrated, software-based tool deployed on a laptop computer or handheld device. The CDSS will assist the crew and ground support when interacting with knowledge/databases (e.g. records, pharmacy, schedule), instrumentation (e.g. imaging, physiological monitoring devices), and habitat (e.g. wellness system, task performance system) and vehicle systems (e.g. environmental system, communication system). In addition, the human interface will employ a context-based approach that accounts for the crew’s situation. Thus, extraneous and clinically/operationally non-relevant information are reduced to avoid an increase in cognitive load. The framework of an ideal spaceflight CDSS is to include core and advanced analytical features that incorporate work from collaborators yet maintain a flexible platform for integrating new technology in the future. In fiscal year 2021 (FY21), the CDS project identified requirements through two primary mechanisms: (i) the development of software implementation prototypes and (ii) the application of systems engineering processes. The CDS project developed and tested a series of increasingly complex system prototypes that were based on use cases derived from the CDSS concept of operations (ConOps). These software implementations yielded insights on CDSS functionality as well as lessons learned that provided the initial requirements for CDSS capability. By applying a systems engineering (SE) approach, medical scenarios provided in the ConOps and the use cases for software implementation underwent functional decomposition to identify CDSS functionality. Also, systems-based modeling language (SysML) tools such as activity diagrams were developed from the same ConOps and use cases to identify CDSS functionality. The lessons learned from software implementation defined both specific requirements and broad areas of requirements. Within these defined broad requirement areas, further analysis of the SE products identified specific capability that resulted in the final functional requirements. In summary, the software prototypes, functional decomposition of the ConOps and use cases, and SysML diagrams provided the basis for the CDSS requirements developed in FY21. In the upcoming year, these requirements will be refined for their final ExMC baseline review in latter FY22.

clinical decision support↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Crew Medical Decisions on Deep Space Missions: A Real-Time Performance Monitoring

Crewed missions into deep space will require astronauts to respond autonomously to safety- and time-critical anomalies. These and other potential issues will require the continuous monitoring and recognition of potentially subtle, but complex, anomalous data patterns. NASA continues to investigate real-time metrics for Extravehicular Operations1 and for providing feedback to improve performance2. Since it is unknown how long-term exposure to deep space will affect crew health, continuous monitoring of clinical and subclinical status is warranted. NASA is characterizing crew medical decision-support needs and identifying the recommended requirements of a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) within the Exploration Medical Capability Element (ExMC) of the Human Research Program3. Early detection, and continuous monitoring, of performance may provide an effective prognostic capability for assessing crew health state, and the identified requirements could be provided for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as an assistant for delivering optimal health and performance and medical care during exploration missions. There is evidence to suggest that automatic, unobtrusive collection of keystroke features, such as alphanumeric key latencies, backspaces or typing rhythm, could be a valuable performance screening tool. Keystroke features show significant differences between control subjects and patients with overt clinical illness, such as multiple sclerosis4 and Parkinson’s disease5, as well as behavioral health and performance issues, such as mild cognitive impairment6 and depression7. This work is exploring a capability for the assessment of early task performance decline in crew as they perform daily activities. Timestamped keyboard entries are continuously collected and stored. Nominal keystroke interactions are compared to those obtained after exposure to spaceflight stressors, e.g., fatigue, to determine the methods sensitivity. This work will pave the way toward an objective detection tool that may be deployed in a spaceflight setting.

clinical↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clinical Decision Support: Path to Functional Requirements

Long-duration, deep-space exploration missions present significant challenges to crew health and performance. These challenges include the individual and combined effects of microgravity, radiation exposure, isolation, limited resources (mass, volume, power, data and crew time), limited options for evacuation and those associated with delayed or constrained communications, all of which demand greater crew autonomy. Specifically, as the communication delays intensify the further we explore space, the unqualified need for Earth-independent medical operations focused on autonomous diagnosis, treatment and prevention will be key to mission continuation and success. To augment the requisite knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs) of a time-constrained crew operating under stressful conditions, combatting fatigue, and facing a potential medical crisis, a robust clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a probable solution that would facilitate, guide and inform Earth-independent medical operations, while assisting crewmembers through various clinical presentations. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) is expanding the boundaries of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. ExMC is actively identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: “Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.” Though mass, volume, and power will face increasing constraints, the projected computational capabilities of spacecraft systems will increase exponentially as information technology continues to advance this decade and beyond. Hence, data, software and computational resources will play an essential and synergistic role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance in deep space missions. The focus of the CDS project is to develop recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as a ‘virtual assistant’ for delivering optimal health, performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as an integrated, software-based tool deployed on a laptop computer or handheld device. The CDSS will assist the crew and ground support when interacting with knowledge/databases (e.g. records, pharmacy, schedule), instrumentation (e.g. imaging, physiological monitoring devices), and habitat (e.g. wellness system, task performance system) and vehicle systems (e.g. environmental system, communication system). In addition, the human interface will employ a context-based approach that accounts for the crew’s situation. Thus, extraneous and clinically/operationally non-relevant information are reduced to avoid an increase in cognitive load. The framework of an ideal spaceflight CDSS is to include core and advanced analytical features that incorporate work from collaborators yet maintain a flexible platform for integrating new technology in the future. In fiscal year 2021 (FY21), the CDS project identified requirements through two primary mechanisms: (i) the development of software implementation prototypes and (ii) the application of systems engineering processes. The CDS project developed and tested a series of increasingly complex system prototypes that were based on use cases derived from the CDSS concept of operations (ConOps). These software implementations yielded insights on CDSS functionality as well as lessons learned that provided the initial requirements for CDSS capability. By applying a systems engineering (SE) approach, medical scenarios provided in the ConOps and the use cases for software implementation underwent functional decomposition to identify CDSS functionality. Also, systems-based modeling language (SysML) tools such as activity diagrams were developed from the same ConOps and use cases to identify CDSS functionality. The lessons learned from software implementation defined both specific requirements and broad areas of requirements. Within these defined broad requirement areas, further analysis of the SE products identified specific capability that resulted in the final functional requirements. In summary, the software prototypes, functional decomposition of the ConOps and use cases, and SysML diagrams provided the basis for the CDSS requirements developed in FY21. In the upcoming year, these requirements will be refined for their final ExMC baseline review in latter FY22.

Clinical decision support↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Markov Decision Process based Trajectory Planning for UAVs under Uncertain Wind Conditions

In this paper we propose a Markov Decision Process (MDP) algorithm for path-planning of Unmanned Aviation Vehicles (UAVs) under varying wind conditions. Solutions to path-planning for UAVs are becoming increasingly necessary as autonomous UAVs continue to enter commercial and government spaces. Path-planning is inherently challenging, as UAVs needs to account for dynamically changing flying conditions such as weather, obstacle or no-fly zones, degraded vehicle health and off-nominal battery power consumption. Machine learning methods such as Markov Decision Process (MDPs) have the potential to revolutionize how vehicles navigate in such uncertain environments. Previous papers have demonstrated the use of MDPs to optimize UAV path-planning for energy consumption under time-varying wind distribution. In this study, UAV trajectories from a pre-determined waypoint to target cell, will be computed on a 7X7 grid environment by optimizing parameters for mission assurance and safety limits in addition to the energy consumption, and operation time. The UAV navigates the grid by taking actions to move in either of the eight cardinal and intercardinal directions, under constant thrust profile. The next state of the UAV is calculated by considering its action, transition probability, obstacle cells and the wind speed magnitude and direction. Both constant and stochastic wind will be considered in this paper, the parameters being extracted from real wind measurements in proximity to an experimental UAV flight. One of the studies to be demonstrated in this paper is that as the unmanned airspace gets more complex with multiple vehicles and environmental uncertainties, trade-offs between energy consumption, operation time, risk tolerance, and mission assurance needs to be made. Further, MDPs are capable of fast computation of UAV trajectories under varying wind, hence making them suitable for in-flight path planners.

decision-making↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dissertation Defense: Three Papers on Organizational Decision-Making and Change at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

This is a three-paper dissertation that responds to a call for empirical research on stakeholder influence in the implementation of evaluation recommendations. The literature is consistent but mostly theoretical: stakeholder participation should positively influence and increase the probability of implementation (see e.g., Christie, 2011; Cousins & Earl, 1992; Fetterman, 2004). In response, I use two Goddard Space Flight Center engineering technical training and development programs to build a causal argument supporting my proposition that stakeholder influence in the logic modeling process impacts organizational decision-making and change. I first introduce the logic modeling process as a tool to involve stakeholders in program and evaluation design (paper 1); then use the data collection process to implement the collaboratively constructed logic model outcomes (paper 2); and, finally, I triangulate the data using the Toal (2009) Evaluation Involvement Scale (paper 3). I do this to “increase the validity of the findings” (Noble & Heale, 2019, p. 67) and to garner potential mechanisms. I found that stakeholder participation in the logic modeling process positively influenced the use of data to inform recommendations which in turn positively influenced implementation of evaluation recommendations. I identified the process itself as the mechanism and the key decision points as links or influencers. Potential factors included power and interest (measured by role) and time-on-job.

organizational decision-making↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team Clinical Decision Support Market Survey

NASA’s Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) has identified Clinical Decision Support (CDS) technology as a critical need for future human space exploration. Such technology will support real time diagnosis, monitoring, and treatment of spaceflight medical conditions. The need for such tools and support systems is critical for in-mission clinical decision-making, especially when Earth-based support is unavailable due to communication delays or blackouts. Supporting technologies may or may not involve Artificial Intelligence (AI), and would support astronaut crew with minimal clinical training, or even those with advanced training if they are, for example, in need of a refresher, experiencing multiple stressors, or temporarily overloaded with tasking. This need traces to the Development of Earth Independent Operations Technologies for NASA’s Mars Campaign Office. The CDS Market Survey purpose, methods, outcomes thus far, and near-term steps will be discussed.

Decision support↗

DOE OSTI2020

K-Spin Hamiltonian for Quantum-Resolvable Markov Decision Processes

The Markov decision process is the mathematical formalization underlying the modern field of reinforcement learning when transition and reward functions are unknown. We derive a pseudo-Boolean cost function that is equivalent to a K-spin Hamiltonian representation of the discrete, finite, discounted Markov decision process with infinite horizon. This K-spin Hamiltonian furnishes a starting point from which to solve for an optimal policy using heuristic quantum algorithms such as adiabatic quantum annealing and the quantum approximate optimization algorithm on near-term quantum hardware. In arguing that the variational minimization of our Hamiltonian is approximately equivalent to the Bellman optimality condition for a prevalent class of environments we establish an interesting analogy with classical field theory. Along with proof-of-concept calculations to corroborate our formulation by simulated and quantum annealing against classical Q-Learning, we analyze the scaling of physical resources required to solve our Hamiltonian on quantum hardware.

Hamiltonian↗

DOE OSTI2021

A forecast-driven decision-making model for long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system

Hydro-wind-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system has the potential to increase the integration of renewable energy sources into an existing grid. For the long-term operation of the system, due to the non-storable nature of wind and PV power, it is essentially to decide the optimal long-term carryover storage of cascade reservoirs. However, it remains a challenge due to high uncertainties of long-term forecasts and complicated hydraulic/electrical relationships between cascade reservoirs. Here in this study, a forecast-driven decision-making model is proposed for the hybrid system, which converts the multi-stage long-term operation process into a two-stage operation problem (including current stage and carryover stage) to avoid using longer-horizon forecast information with lower accuracy. First, the carryover stage energy surfaces (CESs) considering the forecast uncertainties of wind, solar and hydro resources are proposed to characterize carryover stage benefit quantitatively. Then a CESs-based forward decision-making optimization model is developed to guide the long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system. The applications in a hydro-wind-PV hybrid system of Yalong River basin results show that: compared with conventional operation, 1) power generation increases 9.03%; 2) in terms of the carryover storages control, the reservoir impounding and drawdown timing are delayed, and the drawdown depth is increased, which can be used to formulate better reservoir operation rules.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing equity in energy policy interventions: A quantitative decision-support framework for energy justice

This paper presents a quantitative framework to support policy decision-making around equitable energy interventions. By combining sociodemographic and techno-economic models in the energy space, we propose a linear programming model to calculate the optimal portfolio of energy investments that explicitly minimizes the energy burden of a given population of energy insecure households. The model is formulated as a multi-objective optimization suitable to support the decisions on weatherization and deployment of distributed energy resources. We illustrate our methodology with a case study involving a population of 14,043 energy insecure households in Wayne County, Detroit, United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Decisions and coordination of retailer-led low-carbon supply chain under altruistic preference

A low-carbon supply chain formed by a dominant retailer and a small and medium-sized manufacturer (SMM) is considered. Because the SMM faces the high cost pressure of adopting carbon emission reduction (CER) technologies, the retailer may take an altruistic preference for the long-term sustainability of the chain. Three decision-making models, centralized, decentralized without altruistic preference, and decentralized with altruistic preference, are constructed to compare decisions and profits of both parties. Since neither decentrailized models can lead to a coordinated solution that is incentive compitable, a coordination contract, referred to as the cost sharing contract with altruistic preference, is proposed. Numerical study shows that the altruistic preference can help increase the SMM's profit and system efficiency but decrease the retailer's profit. The coordination contract requires the retailer to adjust the unit profit and share more than half of the CER cost. Finally, it is found that the wholesale price is the lowest in the coordination contract and the comparison of unit profit depends on the coefficient of CER cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Industrial battery operation and utilization in the presence of electrical load uncertainty using Bayesian decision theory

Behind the meter battery storage is becoming increasing popular in all sectors, though enthusiasm has recently lagged in the industrial sector. Even though there may be many factors contributing to this including lack of innovation, prohibitive costs, and undesirable rate structures, a difficulty arises in accounting for uncertainty of electrical load in industrial facilities while still attempting to utilize battery storage as much as possible all while trying to achieve fiscal profitability. Here this study utilizes Gaussian process regression and Bayesian decision theory to organize load data and quantify electrical load uncertainty to properly and effectively discharge industrial battery storage. The study employs a simulation model to set battery load setpoints for the span of the utility billing period according to the degree of risk aversion. This combination of economic analysis according to utility billing period and utilization of degree of risk aversion to make decisions on the uncertainty of the data has not before been applied to battery storage. The method resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand by 3.8 % at the lowest amount of savings and lowest risk aversion. The highest risk aversion resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand of 7.5 %. The maximum reduction of peak load in any month was 13.8 % in the month of December with a relatively high risk aversion. With a the highest amount risk aversion tested, the model reduced demand ten of the twelve months of the year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗