Results for “drought projection” — Page 22

NASA NTRS2012

GPM Mission Overview and U.S. Science Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational sensors to provide "next-generation" precipitation products [1-2]. Water is fundamental to life on Earth. Knowing where and how much rain and snow falls globally is vital to understanding how weather and climate impact both our environment and Earth's water and energy cycles, including effects on agriculture, fresh water availability, and responses to natural disasters. Since rainfall and snowfall vary greatly from place to place and over time, satellites can provide more uniform observations of rain and snow around the globe than ground instruments, especially in areas where surface measurements are difficult. Relative to current global rainfall products, GPM data products will be characterized by: (l) more accurate instantaneous precipitation measurements (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) more frequent sampling by an expanded constellation of domestic and international microwave radiometers including operational humidity sounders, (3) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a unified framework, and (4) physical-based precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori cloud/hydrometeor database derived from GPM Core sensor measurements. The cornerstone of the GPM mission is the deployment of a Core Observatory in a unique 65 non-Sun-synchronous orbit to serve as a physics observatory and a reference standard to unify precipitation measurements by a constellation of dedicated and operational passive microwave sensors. The design of the GPM Core Observatory is an advancement of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s highly successful rain-sensing package. The Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a multichannel (l0-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). Since light rain and falling snow account for a significant fraction of precipitation occurrence in middle and high latitudes, the GPM instruments extend the capabilities of the TRMM sensors to detect falling snow, measure light rain, and provide, for the first time, quantitative estimates of microphysical properties of precipitation particles. The combined use of DPR and GMI measurements will place greater constraints on possible solutions to radiometer retrievals to improve the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. The GMI uses 13 different microwave channels to observe energy from the different types of precipitation through clouds for estimating everything from heavy to light rain and for detecting falling snow. As the satellite passes over Earth, the GMI constantly scans a region 885 kilometers across. The Ball Aerospace and Technology Corporation built the GMI under contract with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The DPR provides three-dimensional information about precipitation particles derived from reflected energy by these particles at different heights within the cloud system. The two frequencies of the DPR also allow the radar to infer the sizes of precipitation particles and offer insights into a storm's physical characteristics. The Ka-band frequen~y scans across a region of 125 kilometers and is nested within the wider scan of the Ku-band frequency of 245 kilometers. The Japan Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Japan's National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) built the DPR. The Core Observatory satellite will fly at an altitude of 253 miles (407 kilometers) in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit that covers the Earth from 65 S to 65 N - from about the Antarctic Circle to the Arctic Circle. The GPM Core Observatory is being developed and tested at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Once complete, a Japanese H-lIA rocket will carry thPM Core Observatory into orbit from Tanegashima Island, Japan in 2014. The GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise 8 or more microwave sensors provided by partners, including both conical imagers and cross-track sounders. GPM is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Additional partnerships are under development to include microwave radiometers on the French-Indian Megha-Tropiques satellite and U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, as well as humidity sounders or precipitation sensors on operational satellites such as the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), NOAA-NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, European MetOp satellites, and DMSP follow-on sensors. In addition, data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers may be available through international cooperation under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). GPM's next-generation global precipitation data will lead to scientific advances and societal benefits in the following areas: (1) Improved knowledge of the Earth's water cycle and its link to climate change (2) New insights into precipitation microphysics, storm structures and large-scale atmospheric processes (3) Better understanding of climate sensitivity and feedback processes (4) Extended capabilities in monitoring and predicting hurricanes and other extreme weather events (5) Improved forecasting capabilities for natural hazards, including floods, droughts and landslides. (6) Enhanced numerical prediction skills for weather and climate (7) Better agricultural crop forecasting and monitoring of freshwater resources. An overview of the GPM mission concept and science activities in the United States, together with an update on international collaborations in radiometer intercalibration and ground validation, will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Observed Impacts

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic Streamflow Datasets Derived from DOE 9505 for Select Texas Basins

This dataset is generated using a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model trained on the DOE 9505 streamflow projection ensemble. A set of 21,000 streamflow realizations are generated for the Colorado, Sabine, and Trinity river basins in Texas. Separate models are trained either using the full 9505 ensemble or a subset based on three hyperparameters: bias correction, downscaling, and hydrological model.

drought↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assimilated Hydrological Data at NASA GES DISC with Examples of Extreme Events

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy rainfall, heatwave, floods and droughts, and strong wind, can have devastating impacts on society. NASA and NOAA, based on independent analyses, recently announced that global surface temperatures in 2018 are the fourth warmest since 1880, behind only those of 2016, 2017, and 2015 (nasa.gov). Also in 2018, the United States experienced 14 billion-dollar disasters, ranking as the fourth highest total number of such events, behind only the years 2017, 2011, and 2016 (climate.gov). Many research studies have focused on acquiring observational and modeling data, to reveal linkages between increasing extreme events, global water and energy cycle, and global climate change. However, draw conclusions is still a challenge. NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center is one of twelve NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) data centers that process, archive, document, and distribute data from Earth science missions and related projects. The GES DISC hosts a wide range of remotely-sensed and model data and provides reliable and robust data access and services to users worldwide. This presentation provides a few examples of extreme event study that use Land Surface Model (LSM) assimilated, quality-controlled, and spatially and temporally consistent, hydrological data from the GES DISC. Also provided is a summary table for the hydrological data holdings, along with discussions of recent updates to data and data services.

Rui, Hualan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mesofluidic Inline Separation for Produced Water Treatment

Mesofluidic inline separation developed by PNNL represents an opportunity to remove a key barrier in the treatment of produced water, namely suspended solids that clog downstream operations. The US alone produces over 800 billion gallons of produced water each year, most of which is reinjected underground (but not into the aquifers) as waste. The impact from treating and reusing even a fraction of this wastewater is immense as aquifers in the Midwest and elsewhere dry. The work described herein is essential to leveraging the opportunity to improve produced water quality (to allow for beneficial use) by combining mesofluidic inline separators with reverse osmosis systems. Providing water for agricultural and industrial uses in the American Southwest and Midwest by allowing the reuse of petroleum produced water may be critical to the long-term economics of the region. This is especially true as drought conditions are rapidly lowering aquifer levels in these regions. The incumbent technology for desalination is reverse osmosis (RO) due to its ability to treat a wide range of feedwaters and technological maturity. However, suspended solids cause RO (and other dissolved solids removal technologies) to become clogged and loose performance. A common strategy is to use prefilters upstream of RO systems, but these membrane-based filters easily clog and require regular maintenance. Unlike membrane filters, mesofluidic inline separators provide removal of suspended solids with much lower pressure drops than conventional systems filtration systems, permitting substantially higher flowrates. Although the amount of produced water from petroleum operations is vast, only a small fraction of it is reused or turned into potable water, for example, because of the lack of technologies to remove both dissolved and suspended solids at a significant throughput. This project shows that mesofluidic inline separators coupled with a commercial dissolved solids removal technology (RO) are positioned to do exactly that. Mesofluidic inline separators fit within commercial piping and are tunable for particle sizes of interest as described below. Indeed, mesofluidic inline separators have remarkably smaller footprints than competing filtration technologies and are easily transportable from jobsite to jobsite. This technology has no moving parts so that solids removal can be accomplished at much lower operating cost.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2014

Temperature and Snow-Mediated Moisture Controls of Summer Photosynthetic Activity in Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems Between 1982 and 2011

Recent warming has stimulated the productivity of boreal and Arctic vegetation by reducing temperature limitations. However, several studies have hypothesized that warming may have also increased moisture limitations because of intensified summer drought severity. Establishing the connections between warming and drought stress has been difficult because soil moisture observations are scarce. Here we use recently developed gridded datasets of moisture variability to investigate the links between warming and changes in available soil moisture and summer vegetation photosynthetic activity at northern latitudes (greater than 45N) based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) since 1982. Moisture and temperature exert a significant influence on the inter-annual variability of summer NDVI over about 29% (mean r(sup 2) = 0.29 +/ 0.16) and 43% (mean r(sup 2 = 0.25 +/- 0.12) of the northern vegetated land, respectively. Rapid summer warming since the late 1980s (approximately 0.7deg C) has increased evapotranspiration demand and consequently summer drought severity, but contrary to earlier suggestions it has not changed the dominant climate controls of NDVI over time. Furthermore, changes in snow dynamics (accumulation and melting) appear to be more important than increased evaporative demand in controlling changes in summer soil moisture availability and NDVI in moisture-sensitive regions of the boreal forest. In boreal North America, forest NDVI declines are more consistent with reduced snowpack rather than with temperature-induced increases in evaporative demand as suggested in earlier studies. Moreover, summer NDVI variability over about 28% of the northern vegetated land is not significantly associated with moisture or temperature variability, yet most of this land shows increasing NDVI trends. These results suggest that changes in snow accumulation and melt, together with other possibly non-climatic factors are likely to play a significant role in modulating regional ecosystem responses to the projected warming and increase in evapotranspiration demand during the coming decades.

Snowpack↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Process‐Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year —1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year —1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year —1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year —1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (—0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year —1 ). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-NC2 NC_Loblolly Plantation

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NC2 NC_Loblolly Plantation. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NC2 NC_Loblolly Plantation produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The North Carolina Loblolly Pine site is located in a pine plantation amongst the mixed forests of the North Carolina lower coastal plain. During the late 19th and early 20th centuries the region was logged extensively. After a series of clearcuts, the land was transformed for agricultural practices. In 1967 and 1969, 4000 ha was sold to the Weyerhauser company for agriculture, preservation, and commercial logging of loblolly pines in a series of plantations. The fifth rotation stand surrounding the tower was established in 1992. The only significant natural disturbances during the measurement period was a severe drought that spanned the entire duration of the 2007 growing season. Consequently, the 2007 total amount of precipitation was 486 mm below the 30-year norm. In the same year, the plantation was thinned and fertilized. The stand was thinned in Oct 2009. The eastern half of the site was fertilized in January 2011, and the entire site was fertilized in October 2012.

Noormets, Asko [Texas A&M University]↗

NASA NTRS2022

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

Megadroughts, often lasting multiple decades, have caused major ecological and societal disturbances in the past. While most research has focused on megadroughts in North America, the concept has gained increased international attention in recent years. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era and future megadroughts. Paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the last 2,000 years document the occurrence of megadroughts on every continent, save Antarctica. Megadroughts are often linked to decadal variations in sea surface temperatures, with radiative forcing and land-atmosphere interactions acting as secondary factors. Anthropogenic climate change has already contributed to recent megadroughts in southwestern North America and Chile-Argentina and will likely increase future megadrought risk and severity in many regions. Notably, future megadroughts will be differentiated from past events through higher temperatures, which act as the main driver of increased risk, severity, and impacts. Major deficiencies in our understanding of natural and anthropogenic megadrought processes remain, however. These include 1) sparse high-resolution paleoclimate information over some regions, 2) incomplete representations of internal variability and land-surface processes in climate models, and 3) the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to manage megadrought impacts. Resolving these key uncertainties will be necessary to increase confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and resiliency planning.

Droughts↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Process-Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year−1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year−1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year−1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year−1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (−0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year−1). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo↗

DOE OSTI2021

WA-Omic_LA.1.0 - Quantitative Lipidomics, Metabolomics, and Sequencing (16S/ITS) Publication Data DOI Package

Corresponding Data Publication: "Rapid remodeling of the soil lipidome in response to a drying-rewetting event." This study reveals specific changes in lipids and metabolites that are indicative of stress adaptation, substrate use, and cellular recovery during soil drying and subsequent rewetting. Drought induced nutrient limitation was reflected in the lipidome and polar metabalome, both of which rapidly shifted (within hours) upon rewet. Reduced nutrient access in dry soil caused the replacement of glycerophospholipids with phosphorus-free lipids and impeded resource-expensive osmolyte accumulation. Elevated levels of ceramides and lipids with long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, in dry soil suggests that lipids play an important role in fungal drought tolerance. Increasing abundance of bacterial glycerophospholipids and triacylglycerols with fatty acids typical of bacteria and polar metabolites suggest metabolic recovery in representative bacteria once the environmental conditions are conducive for growth. These results underscore the importance of the soil lipidome as a robust indicator of microbial community responses, especially at the short time scales of cell-environment reactions. Data package contents reported here are the first version and contain pre- and post-processed data acquisition and subsequent downstream analysis files using various data source instrument method techniques and Mass Spectroscopy (MS) EMSL capabilities. This publication data package DOI is a comprehensive high-throughput multi-omics data lifecycle collection containing processed data method metadata. Support files include additional data download “Read Me” file containing data descriptor information and data source application ontologies (see data dictionary). Reported data download contents are structured for compliance with project data sharing guidelines, community standards initiatives, and sponsor stakeholder policies supporting FAIR data principles. For increased data availability and interoperability, GC-MS/LC-MS mass spectrometry datasets (Thermo .raw ) were deposited at the MassIVE database repository under the related data accession MSV000086931 and can be accessed by using the API. Statistical data processing software, analysis tools, and data workflows are listed below corresponding to the host repository long-term location.

Amplicon sequencing 16S ITS LC-MS/MS lipidomics mu↗

DOE OSTI2021

WA-Omic_LA.1.0 - Quantitative Lipidomics, Metabolomics, and Sequencing (16S/ITS) Publication Data DOI Package

Corresponding Data Publication: "Rapid remodeling of the soil lipidome in response to a drying-rewetting event." This study reveals specific changes in lipids and metabolites that are indicative of stress adaptation, substrate use, and cellular recovery during soil drying and subsequent rewetting. Drought induced nutrient limitation was reflected in the lipidome and polar metabalome, both of which rapidly shifted (within hours) upon rewet. Reduced nutrient access in dry soil caused the replacement of glycerophospholipids with phosphorus-free lipids and impeded resource-expensive osmolyte accumulation. Elevated levels of ceramides and lipids with long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, in dry soil suggests that lipids play an important role in fungal drought tolerance. Increasing abundance of bacterial glycerophospholipids and triacylglycerols with fatty acids typical of bacteria and polar metabolites suggest metabolic recovery in representative bacteria once the environmental conditions are conducive for growth. These results underscore the importance of the soil lipidome as a robust indicator of microbial community responses, especially at the short time scales of cell-environment reactions. Data package contents reported here are the first version and contain pre- and post-processed data acquisition and subsequent downstream analysis files using various data source instrument method techniques and Mass Spectroscopy (MS) EMSL capabilities. This publication data package DOI is a comprehensive high-throughput multi-omics data lifecycle collection containing processed data method metadata. Support files include additional data download “Read Me” file containing data descriptor information and data source application ontologies (see data dictionary). Reported data download contents are structured for compliance with project data sharing guidelines, community standards initiatives, and sponsor stakeholder policies supporting FAIR data principles. For increased data availability and interoperability, GC-MS/LC-MS mass spectrometry datasets (Thermo .raw ) were deposited at the MassIVE database repository under the related data accession MSV000086931 and can be accessed by using the API. Statistical data processing software, analysis tools, and data workflows are listed below corresponding to the host repository long-term location.

Amplicon sequencing 16S ITS LC-MS/MS lipidomics mu↗

DOE OSTI2021

WA-Omic_LA.1.0 - Quantitative Lipidomics, Metabolomics, and Sequencing (16S/ITS) Publication Data DOI Package

Corresponding Data Publication: "Rapid remodeling of the soil lipidome in response to a drying-rewetting event." This study reveals specific changes in lipids and metabolites that are indicative of stress adaptation, substrate use, and cellular recovery during soil drying and subsequent rewetting. Drought induced nutrient limitation was reflected in the lipidome and polar metabalome, both of which rapidly shifted (within hours) upon rewet. Reduced nutrient access in dry soil caused the replacement of glycerophospholipids with phosphorus-free lipids and impeded resource-expensive osmolyte accumulation. Elevated levels of ceramides and lipids with long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, in dry soil suggests that lipids play an important role in fungal drought tolerance. Increasing abundance of bacterial glycerophospholipids and triacylglycerols with fatty acids typical of bacteria and polar metabolites suggest metabolic recovery in representative bacteria once the environmental conditions are conducive for growth. These results underscore the importance of the soil lipidome as a robust indicator of microbial community responses, especially at the short time scales of cell-environment reactions. Data package contents reported here are the first version and contain pre- and post-processed data acquisition and subsequent downstream analysis files using various data source instrument method techniques and Mass Spectroscopy (MS) EMSL capabilities. This publication data package DOI is a comprehensive high-throughput multi-omics data lifecycle collection containing processed data method metadata. Support files include additional data download “Read Me” file containing data descriptor information and data source application ontologies (see data dictionary). Reported data download contents are structured for compliance with project data sharing guidelines, community standards initiatives, and sponsor stakeholder policies supporting FAIR data principles. For increased data availability and interoperability, GC-MS/LC-MS mass spectrometry datasets (Thermo .raw ) were deposited at the MassIVE database repository under the related data accession MSV000086931 and can be accessed by using the API. Statistical data processing software, analysis tools, and data workflows are listed below corresponding to the host repository long-term location.

Amplicon sequencing 16S ITS LC-MS/MS lipidomics mu↗

NASA NTRS2020

Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit

Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure deficit (VPD). VPD has been identified as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought‐induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in ‘next‐generation’ land‐surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant‐ and global‐scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long‐term projections of climate impacts can be made.

mortality↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deeply Rooted: Evaluating Plant Rooting Depth as a Means for Enhanced Soil Carbon Sequestration (Full Technical Report)

Soils store three times as much carbon (C) as the atmosphere, but are not at capacity, and enhanced soil C storage is considered an essential strategy to mitigate rising atmospheric CO 2 levels. Agricultural soils have experienced substantial C loss in the past century due to poor agricultural practices and erosion. A shift towards deep-rooting crops and low-impact soil management could potentially increase long-term sequestration of C fixed by plants and stored in their root tissues, particularly for crops that have naturally deep root systems (>1 meter). A substantial amount of the CO 2 taken up by plants is allocated to their root systems, and because C deposited in deep soil layers has a longer residence time (up to millennia, in contrast to C deposited in topsoils), C increases at depth may have better long-term C sequestration potential than topsoils. However, the accrual, turnover, and stabilization of C in subsoils is a critical knowledge gap. We investigated a deeply rooted plant, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), as a means of increasing carbon stocks in marginal and agricultural soils. We hypothesized that deep (>30 cm) SOC stocks would be greater under bioenergy crops relative to stocks under shallow-rooted conventional crop cover. To test this hypothesis, we compared soil depth profiles beneath deeply rooted switchgrass (cultivated for 4-30 years) and paired shallowrooted annual controls. We studied 12 field sites, 3 that were collected in 2018 before the start of the project as part a Department of Energy (DOE) Sustainable Biofuels study, and 9 that we collected in 2019 on a national field sampling campaign across the eastern US. In our publication from the 2018 study, which was written in collaboration with the LLNL Soil Microbiome Scientific Focus Area (SFA), we found that C stocks increased under switchgrass, but that the increases were dependent on soil texture. In the 2019 study, we found that carbon accrual tended to occur most consistently in low C soil in the southern US, which could indicate that perennial grasses may be a viable strategy to increase SOC in marginals soils in this region. We have published two studies from the 2019 sampling campaign thus far, we measured microbial growth parameters that will aid in modeling subsoil carbon cycling, and we found that switchgrass appears to move water upward in the soil profile and could promote drought tolerance, which a phenomenon commonly performed by trees known as ‘hydraulic redistribution;’ our study is the first to show this can occur in deep-rooted grasses. Finally, we published a modeling paper in collaboration with the LLNL Soil Microbiome SFA, where we found that poorly crystalline minerals are abundant and strongly correlated with organic C in geographically limited zones with enhanced weathering rates. Our results will inform technological development in the agricultural carbon sequestration sector as well as future negative emissions policies.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2021

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Mpj Mountainair Pinyon-Juniper Woodland

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Mpj Mountainair Pinyon-Juniper Woodland. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Mpj Mountainair Pinyon-Juniper Woodland produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This site is located in central New Mexico on an extensive mesa approximately 25 km south of Mountainair, NM, owned by the Heritage Land Conservancy. The dominant tree species, Pinus edulis and Juniperus monosperma make up >95% of the area’s tree cover. Total tree is cover is ~60%. The dominant herbaceous plant at the site is the C4 perennial grass Bouteloua gracilis. In July 2013, we observed pinon mortality at the site, which continued through 2015. We have used a variety of techniques to document the rate of mortality. The mortality was triggered by a combination of drought (2011-2013) and Pinon ips bark beetle outbreak. Juniper was not affected.

Litvak, Marcy↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating NMME Seasonal Forecast Skill for use in NASA SERVIR Hub Regions

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The coupled forecasts have numerous potential applications, both national and international in scope. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in driving applications models in hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush- Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. A prerequisite for seasonal forecast use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture) is bias correction and skill assessment. Efforts to address systematic biases and multi-model combination in support of NASA SERVIR impact modeling requirements will be highlighted. Specifically, quantilequantile mapping for bias correction has been implemented for all archived NMME hindcasts. Both deterministic and probabilistic skill estimates for raw, bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble forecasts as a function of forecast lead will be presented for temperature and precipitation. Complementing this statistical assessment will be case studies of significant events, for example, the ability of the NMME forecasts suite to anticipate the 2010/2011 drought in the Horn of Africa and its relationship to evolving SST patterns.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

DOE OSTI2020

Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit

Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure de?cit (VPD). VPD has been identi?ed as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought-induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in ‘next-generation’ land-surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant- and global-scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long-term projections of clNovickimate impacts can be made.

Grossiord, Charlotte↗