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At least 397 records · Page 22

Forecasted Climate Penalties to Surface Ozone Across the 21st Century

Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface ozone pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate climate penalty and benefits at the end of this century using version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). We archive meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem from the E2.1 contributions to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the present day (2005-2014 C.E.) and end-of-the 21st century (2090-2099 C.E.). Emissions and boundary conditions used for input to GEOS-Chem are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. We apply the model to isolate the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus climate-only driven changes on surface ozone for warming limited to 1.9 W m-2 versus 8.5 W m-2 above preindustrial levels. We find a global climate penalty of 47 (16-77) thousand additional deaths due to surface ozone at the end of the century in the extreme warming scenario, but only 13 (4-21) thousand additional deaths in the extreme mitigation scenario. Similarly, the extreme warming scenario is associated with a 40 % increase in economic losses due to crop damage from climate-only changes in surface ozone, but only an 8 % increase in the extreme mitigation scenario. The simulated climate penalties to surface ozone are most severe in South and East Asia.

Climate penalties↗

Governing in Time: Temporal Capacity and the Feasibility of Energy Transitions

Energy systems function as both technological systems and temporal institutions that shape how societies coordinate, justify, and support collective choices over time. This paper introduces the concept of governance horizons to explain why energy transitions can remain morally supported yet become institutionally weak under increasing pressure. We argue that governability depends on institutions' capacity to synchronize across multiple timeframes - aligning short-term decisions with intermediate coordination and long-term commitments. When this synchronization fails, transitions struggle not because their goals are dismissed, but because governance lacks sufficient time to justify, coordinate, and uphold decisions. Comparative analysis of San Antonio, Texas, and Interior Alaska reveals how energy system pressures generate distinct temporal configurations: San Antonio exhibits governance horizon stretching, where institutions must simultaneously meet near-term reliability demands and long-term transformation goals, while Interior Alaska exhibits horizon compression, where extreme environmental constraints force decision-making into short stabilization cycles. In both contexts, public support for sustainability goals coexists with institutional strain because evaluative judgments are unevenly distributed over time. A temporal configuration analysis is introduced as a diagnostic analytic stance for identifying these patterns. By treating temporal alignment as an explanatory variable rather than a background condition, this approach clarifies how feasibility, sequencing, and legitimacy are shaped by constraints on institutional time. The analysis demonstrates that successful energy transitions depend not only on technological innovation or institutional support, but on governance systems’ ability to sustain credible coordination across multiple time horizons.

Comparative case study↗

ATTNChecker: Highly-Optimized Fault Tolerant Attention for Large Language Model Training

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in various natural language processing tasks. However, the training of these models is computationally intensive and susceptible to faults, particularly in the attention mechanism, which is a critical component of transformer-based LLMs. In this paper, we investigate the impact of faults on LLM training, focusing on INF, NaN, and near-INF values in the computation results with systematic fault injection experiments. We observe the propagation patterns of these errors, which can trigger non-trainable states in the model and disrupt training, forcing the procedure to load from checkpoints. To mitigate the impact of these faults, we propose ATTNChecker, the first Algorithm-Based Fault Tolerance (ABFT) technique tailored for the attention mechanism in LLMs. ATTNChecker is designed based on fault propagation patterns of LLM and incorporates performance optimization to adapt to both system reliability and model vulnerability while providing lightweight protection for fast LLM training. Evaluations on four LLMs show that ATTNChecker on average incurs on average 7% overhead on training while detecting and correcting all extreme errors. Compared with the state-of-the-art checkpoint/restore approach, ATTNChecker reduces recovery overhead by up to 49×.

Liang, Yuhang [University of Alabama - Birmingham]↗

An Apollo 15 Mare Basalt Fragment and Lunar Mare Provinces

Lunar sample 15474,4 is a tiny fragment of olivine-augite vitrophyre that is a mare basalt. Although petroraphically distinct from all other Apollo 15 samples, it has been ignored since its first brief description. Our new petrographic and mineral chemical data show that the olivines and pyroxenes are distinct from those in other basalts. The basalt cooled and solidified extremely rapidly; some of the olivine might be cumulate or crystallized prior to extrusion. Bulk-chemical data show that the sample is probably similar to an evolved Apollo 15 olivine-normative basalt in major elements but is distinct in its rare earth element pattern. Its chemical composition and petrography both show that 15474,4 cannot be derived from other Apollo 15 mare basalts by shallow-level crystal fractionation. It represents a distinct extrusion of magma. Nonetheless, the chemical features that 15474,4 has in common with other Apollo 15 mare basalts, including the high FeO/Sc, the general similarity of the rare earth element pattern, and the common (and chondritic) TiO2/Sm ratio, emphasize the concept of a geochemical province at the Apollo 15 site that is distinct from basalts and provinces elsewhere. In making a consistent picture for the derivation of all of the Apollo 15 basalts, both the commonalities and the differences among the basalts must be explained. The Apollo 15 commonalities and differences suggest that the sources must have consisted of major silicate phases with the same composition but with varied amounts of a magma trapped from a contemporary magma ocean. They probably had a high olivine/pyroxene ratio and underwent small and reasonably consistent degrees of partial melting to produce the basalts. These inferences may be inconsistent with models that suggest greatly different depths of melting among basalts, primitive sources for the green glasses, or extensive olivine fractionation during ascent. An integrated approach to lunar mare provinces, of which the Apollo 15 mare basalts constitute only one, offers advances in our understanding of the physical and chemical processes of source formation and mare production but has so far not been utilized.

Ryder, Graham↗

Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Comprehensive Analysis of Thirty Years of Land Change in Georgia: Forest Degradation, Land-Use Patterns, and Drivers

In this talk, we present results from a study, funded by the NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program, of thirty years of environmental change in the country of Georgia. The country, a former Soviet Union Republic, has experienced more political, economic and social change in the last 30 years than most countries. But the environmental implications of these extreme events remain largely unknown – the region is understudied, no national forest inventory has been completed in 20 years, and previous research in the area conducted by the authors were not successful. The latter statement is because of forest degradation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, much of the forestry infrastructure broke down and people resorted to chopping down individual trees. The result was in many parts of the country a reduction in forest biomass but not to the point of a change in land cover. This type of forest degradation, which was either gradual over decades or abrupt, could not be readily identified using the methods and data at our disposal at the time. In the recent study, we had full access to the Landsat archive in combination with computing power. By using monitoring methods that are based on time series analysis, we were able to capture and identify the gradual processes driven by small scale activities that are so characteristic of the post-Soviet Georgian landscape. We developed an approach (“CCDC-SMA”) that combines time series analysis and spectral mixture analysis running on Google Earth Engine for monitoring abrupt and gradual forest degradation. By using this approach, we found that forest degradation was significantly larger than the area estimate of deforestation; 3,541 ± 556 km2 (11% of the forest area in 1987) compared to 158 ± 98 km2 from 1987 to 2020. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. To further our understanding of the underlying causes, we combined forest disturbance estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. We found that higher winter temperature and drought were associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought were associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.

Pontus Olofsson↗

Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

VLA neutral hydrogen imaging of compact groups

Images of the neutral hydrogen (H I) in the direction of the compact groups of galaxies, HCG 31, HCG 44, and HCG 79 are presented. The authors find in HCG 31 and HCG 79, emission contained within a cloud much larger than the galaxies as well as the entire group. The H I emission associated with HCG 44 is located within the individual galaxies but shows definite signs of tidal interactions. The authors imaged the distribution and kinematics of neutral hydrogen at the two extremes of group sizes represented in Hickson's sample. HCG 44 is at the upper limit while HCG 18, HCG 31, and HCG 79 are at the lower end. Although the number of groups that have been imaged is still very small, there may be a pattern emerging which describes the H I morphology of compact groups. The true nature of compact groups has been the subject of considerable debate and controversy. The most recent observational and theoretical evidence strongly suggests that compact groups are physically dense, dynamical systems that are in the process of merging into a single object (Williams and Rood 1987, Hickson and Rood 1988, Barnes 1989). The neutral hydrogen deficiency observed by Williams and Rood (1987) is consistent with a model in which frequent galactic collisions and interactions have heated some of the gas during the short lifetime of the group. The H I disks which are normally more extended than the luminous ones are expected to be more sensitive to collisions and to trace the galaxy's response to recent interactions. Very Large Array observations can provide in most cases the spatial resolution needed to confirm the dynamical interactions in these systems.

Williams, B. A.↗

Discrete breakup arcs and kinetic Alfven waves

Attention is confined to the extremely narrow auroral structures whose characteristic dimensions perpendicular to the magnetic fields are of the order of several hundred meters or even less. The starting point of the model used here is the assumption that discrete breakup arcs are caused by a change in the magnetosphere convection pattern that is localized in space. Particular attention is given to the shear Alfven mode. It is proposed that discrete breakup arcs are a direct manifestation of kinetic interaction between charged particles and an 'mhd' perturbation. It is stressed that the model applies only to narrow structures (thickness of the order of the plasma skin depth) and to short-lived phenomena (time scales shorter than a dispersion time). It is shown that a change of convection pattern in a spatially limited region leads to the emission of a shear-Alfven wave packet which propagates along the magnetic field line with a characteristic velocity.

Goertz, C. K.↗

The Plasmasphere as Seen by the IMAGE EUV Instrument

The IMAGE spacecraft includes the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) imager, which is designed to view He+ plasmaspheric ions in the inner magnetosphere. These images provide the first opportunity to view the global distribution of plasmaspheric ions and their response to solar wind induced convection and the ring current. In addition to the generalized pattern of convection long believed to develop in thermal plasma, the EUV instrument is observing other meso-scale patterns of plasma distribution never before observed or postulated using in situ measurements. This poster presentation will present the "first light" observations of the EUV instrument and their possible interpretations.

Gallagher, D. L.↗

Histochemical discrimination of fibers in regenerating rat infraorbital nerve

In rat dorsal root ganglia, histochemical staining of carbonic anhydrase (CA) and cholinesterase (CE) yields a reciprocal pattern of activity: Sensory processes are CA positive and CE negative, whereas motor processes are CA negative and CE positive. In rat infraorbital nerve (a sensory peripheral nerve), we saw extensive CA staining of nearly 100% of the myelinated axons. Although CE reactivity in myelinated axons was extremely rare, we did observe CE staining of unmyelinated autonomic fibers. Four weeks after transection of infraorbital nerves, CA-stained longitudinal sections of the proximal stump demonstrated 3 distinct morphological zones. A fraction of the viable axons retained CA activity to within 2 mm of the distal extent of the stump, and the stain is capable of resolving growth sprouts being regenerated from these fibers. Staining of unmyelinated autonomic fibers in serial sections shows that CE activity was not retained as far distally as is the CA sensory staining.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

Magnetic loops, downflows, and convection in the solar corona

Optical and extreme-ultraviolet observations of solar loop structures show that flows of cool plasma from condensations near the loop apex are a common property of loops associated with radiations whose maximum temperature is greater than approximately 7000 K and less than approximately 3,000,000 K. It is suggested that the mass balance of these structures indicates reconnection by means of plasma motion across field lines under rather general circumstances (not only after flares). It is shown that the cool material has lower gas pressure than the surrounding coronal medium. The density structure of the bright extreme ultraviolet loops suggests that downflows of cool gas result from isobaric condensation of plasma that is either out of thermal equilibrium with the local energy deposition rate into the corona, or is thermally unstable. The evidence is thought to indicate that magnetic fields act to induce a pattern of forced convection.

Foukal, P.↗

Global, quasi-steady dynamics of the distant solar wind 2: Deformation of the heliospheric current sheet

A three-dimensional (3-D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical model is used to trace global deformations of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) caused by large-scale dynamical interactions associated with corotating solar wind flows. Configurations incorporating the tilted-dipole geometry are investigated out past 30 AU for a variety of dipole tilt angles, alpha. Inclusion of the full, 3-D interplanetary dynamics allows north-south displacements and the east-west warping of the HCS by advective corotational effects to be accurately assessed for the first time. It is found that large-scale spatial correlations between velocity and density imposed at the coronal source (i.e., the geometric arrangement whereby regions of high-speed low-density material lying adjacent to areas of slow, dense flow interact obliquely under the influence of solar rotation) result in a distinctive pattern of deformation of the HCS. For an alpha = 30 deg tilted-dipole example, it is shown that typical zonal variations in radial velocity lead to significant folding of the HCS within about 5 AU of the Sun. By 10 AU, additional sharp bends appear near the latitudinal extremes of the HCS surface, where it is overtaken by shock fronts driven by 3-D corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Moreover, the model suggests that inside about 20 AU, major plasma structures are systematically organized, about the HCS, such that the greatest concentrations of material and magnetic field (the centroids of the 3-D CIR structures) are coincident with the folded crests of the HCS (near heliographic latitudes lambda = +/- alpha). Thus, in these circumstances many of the more interesting dynamical features inconveniently lie well away from the heliographic equator. At larger heliocentric distances, where neighboring CIRs begin to interact strongly, the warping of the HCS abates dramatically and the association between folds in the HCS and major field and density concentrations is weakened and ultimately breaks down. On the basis of the model calculations, quasi-steady deformations and related phenomena should figure prominently in the interplanetary medium, except during those periods when the magnetic dipole and solar spin axes are nearly aligned (alpha is approximately less than 10 deg). Even then, they may be of significance if there are any substantial local warps or kinks in the streamer belt.

Pizzo, V. J.↗

360 deg Camera Head for Unmanned Sea Surface Vehicles

The 360 camera head consists of a set of six color cameras arranged in a circular pattern such that their overlapping fields of view give a full 360 view of the immediate surroundings. The cameras are enclosed in a watertight container along with support electronics and a power distribution system. Each camera views the world through a watertight porthole. To prevent overheating or condensation in extreme weather conditions, the watertight container is also equipped with an electrical cooling unit and a pair of internal fans for circulation.

Townsend, Julie A.↗

REFRACTORY COMPACT HEAT EXCHANGERS WITH EMBEDDED SENSORS ENABLED BY HYBRID ADVANCED SINTERING AND ADDITIVE APPROACH

Structural health monitoring (SHM) of compact heat exchangers (CHXs) operating in extreme environments is essential for ensuring system reliability, safety, and longevity. This study presents the development of high-temperature sensors fabricated via aerosol jet printing (AJP) using platinum ink, selected for its exceptional thermal stability, oxidation resistance, and electrical conductivity. AJP enables precise deposition of fine-feature sensor patterns onto complex geometries, making it well-suited for integration within CHX architectures. To enhance sensor durability, an alumina-based ceramic protective layer was printed over the platinum sensing elements. The sensors demonstrated stable, repeatable performance up to 900?°C during extended thermal cycling. A custom test setup was developed to evaluate sensor accuracy and robustness under steady-state and transient conditions. Substrate screening identified HG-1 ceramic-coated stainless steel as the most effective platform, offering strong adhesion and low resistance. Furthermore, electric field-assisted sintering (EFAS) was employed to embed the sensors into stainless steel 316L matrices without degrading their functionality. Post-embedding electrical tests confirmed sensor integrity, and initial characterization suggests strong potential for in-situ monitoring. This work provides a scalable strategy for integrating high-performance temperature sensors directly into refractory components, advancing embedded SHM technologies for harsh operating environments.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Patterns of sleep behaviour.

Discussion of the electroencephalogram as the critical measurement procedure for sleep research, and survey of major findings that have emerged in the last decade on the presence of sleep within the twenty-four-hour cycle. Specifically, intrasleep processes, frequency of stage changes, sequence of stage events, sleep stage amounts, temporal patterns of sleep, and stability of intrasleep pattern in both man and lower animals are reviewed, along with some circadian aspects of sleep, temporal factors, and number of sleep episodes. It is felt that it is particularly critical to take the presence of sleep into account whenever performance is considered. When it is recognized that responsive performance is extremely limited during sleep, it is easy to visualize the extent to which performance is controlled by sleep itself.

Webb, W. B.↗

A dynamic integrated test for the Space Shuttle

The dynamic integrated test (DIT) has been designed to perform a final checkout of the assembled Space Shuttle vehicle at Kennedy Space Center. The fact that the vehicle is not in a laboratory environment for the test represents a significant constraint in that the use of test equipment is extremely limited, and environment models cannot be used. In essence, the DIT causes the vehicle to believe that it is flying, so that hardware and software systems are exercised much as they would be for a real flight. This technique provides a tool for verifying such items as data bus activity patterns, critical timing sequences, software and hardware moding as a function of flight parameters, absence of EMI problems and other systems interactions which cannot be tested fully in the laboratory.

Brody, S.↗

Numerical simulation of boundary-layer transition

The transition to turbulence in boundary layers was investigated by direct numerical solution of the nonlinear, three-dimensional, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in the half-infinite domain over a flat plate. Periodicity was imposed in the streamwise and spanwise directions. A body force was applied to approximate the effect of a nonparallel mean flow. The numerical method was spectra, based on Fourier series and Jacobi polynomials, and used divergence-free basis functions. Extremely rapid convergence was obtained when solving the linear Orr-Sommerfeld equation. The early nonlinear and three-dimensional stages of transition, in a boundary layer disturbed by a vibrating ribbon, were successfully simulated. Excellent qualitative agreement was observed with either experiments or weakly nonlinear theories. In particular, the breakdown pattern was staggered or nonstaggered depending on the disturbance amplitude.

Spalart, P. R.↗