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At least 397 records · Page 22

Biomass Burning, Land-Cover Change, and the Hydrological Cycle in Northern Sub-Saharan Africa

The Northern Sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, which accounts for 20%-25%of the global carbon emissions from biomass burning, also suffers from frequent drought episodes and other disruptions to the hydrological cycle whose adverse societal impacts have been widely reported during the last several decades. This paper presents a conceptual framework of the NSSA regional climate system components that may be linked to biomass burning, as well as detailed analyses of a variety of satellite data for 2001-2014 in conjunction with relevant model-assimilated variables. Satellite fire detections in NSSA show that the vast majority (greater than 75%) occurs in the savanna and woody savanna land-cover types. Starting in the 2006-2007 burning season through the end of the analyzed data in 2014, peak burning activity showed a net decrease of 2-7% /yr in different parts of NSSA, especially in the savanna regions. However, fire distribution shows appreciable coincidence with land-cover change. Although there is variable mutual exchange of different land cover types, during 2003-2013, cropland increased at an estimated rate of 0.28% /yr of the total NSSA land area, with most of it (0.18% /yr) coming from savanna.During the last decade, conversion to croplands increased in some areas classified as forests and wetlands, posing a threat to these vital and vulnerable ecosystems. Seasonal peak burning is anti-correlated with annual water-cycle indicators such as precipitation, soil moisture, vegetation greenness, and evapotranspiration, except in humid West Africa (5 deg-10 deg latitude),where this anti-correlation occurs exclusively in the dry season and burning virtually stops when monthly mean precipitation reaches 4 mm/d. These results provide observational evidence of changes in land-cover and hydrological variables that are consistent with feedbacks from biomass burning in NSSA, and encourage more synergistic modeling and observational studies that can elaborate this feedback mechanism.

biomass burning↗

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiple-Parameter, Low-False-Alarm Fire-Detection Systems

Fire-detection systems incorporating multiple sensors that measure multiple parameters are being developed for use in storage depots, cargo bays of ships and aircraft, and other locations not amenable to frequent, direct visual inspection. These systems are intended to improve upon conventional smoke detectors, now used in such locations, that reliably detect fires but also frequently generate false alarms: for example, conventional smoke detectors based on the blockage of light by smoke particles are also affected by dust particles and water droplets and, thus, are often susceptible to false alarms. In contrast, by utilizing multiple parameters associated with fires, i.e. not only obscuration by smoke particles but also concentrations of multiple chemical species that are commonly generated in combustion, false alarms can be significantly decreased while still detecting fires as reliably as older smoke-detector systems do. The present development includes fabrication of sensors that have, variously, micrometer- or nanometer-sized features so that such multiple sensors can be integrated into arrays that have sizes, weights, and power demands smaller than those of older macroscopic sensors. The sensors include resistors, electrochemical cells, and Schottky diodes that exhibit different sensitivities to the various airborne chemicals of interest. In a system of this type, the sensor readings are digitized and processed by advanced signal-processing hardware and software to extract such chemical indications of fires as abnormally high concentrations of CO and CO2, possibly in combination with H2 and/or hydrocarbons. The system also includes a microelectromechanical systems (MEMS)-based particle detector and classifier device to increase the reliability of measurements of chemical species and particulates. In parallel research, software for modeling the evolution of a fire within an aircraft cargo bay has been developed. The model implemented in the software can describe the concentrations of chemical species and of particulate matter as functions of time. A system of the present developmental type and a conventional fire detector were tested under both fire and false-alarm conditions in a Federal Aviation Administration cargo-compartment- testing facility. Both systems consistently detected fires. However, the conventional fire detector consistently generated false alarms, whereas the developmental system did not generate any false alarms.

Hunter, Gary W.↗

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Breininger, David R.↗

Impacts of Wildfire Aerosols on Global Energy Budget and Climate: The Role of Climate Feedbacks

Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, the Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasis on the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be -0.78 ± 0.29 W m -2 , which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci; -0.70 ± 0.20 W m -2 ). The associated global annual-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ΔT is -0.64 ± 0.16 K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to reamplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ΔT) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ΔT) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N) but increases in the Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal forest fire aerosol indirect effects, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SolarAPP+ Pilot Analysis: Performance and Impact of Instant, Online Solar Permitting

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) led a collaborative effort to develop the Solar Automated Permit Processing Plus (SolarAPP+), a no-cost solar permitting software solution to address residential solar photovoltaic (PV) permitting resource constraints and streamline solar adoption processes among authorities having jurisdiction (AHJs). The SolarAPP+ is an online portal that automates permit plan review, enabling an instant permit approval process for code-compliant residential PV systems. Based on national model building, electrical, and fire codes, the SolarAPP+ automatically performs a compliance check of permit inputs against code requirements and produces an inspection checklist that can be used to verify installation practices, workmanship, and adherence to the approved design. NREL conducted a two-phase pilot with five participating AHJs and 16 solar contractors, spanning from November 2020 through December 2021, evaluating the ability of SolarAPP+ to deliver instant permits and its impact on four critical areas within each AHJ: permit review timelines; solar adoption timelines; AHJ time saved; and inspection results. The pilot confirmed that SolarAPP+ reduced permit review times to less than one day, reduced solar adoption timelines by an average of 12 days, saved an estimated 2,067 staff hours, and had comparable inspection results to those found in traditional permitting. The pilot further identified key lessons for improving SolarAPP+, including ways to streamline SolarAPP+ adoption, development of training resources, and expansion of supported products.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Role of Hydropower Flexibility in Integrating Renewables in a Low-Carbon Grid

In this study, we looked at the role of hydropower flexibility in variable renewable energy (VRE) integration. Our focus was on facilities that have at least ten hours of storage, i.e., plants that are "dispatchable" and have capacity values similar to that of fossil-fired generation. For our modeling framework, we used NREL's Mid-Case/95% Carbon Reduction by 2035 standard scenario as our foundation. This zonal model is representative of the buildout of a near-zero carbon policy grid in an otherwise "business-as-usual" policy and economic environment. We chose this scenario because it aligns well with the Administration's net-zero carbon grid by 2035 goal.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Extrapolation of Type Ia Supernova Spectra into the Near-infrared Using Principal Component Analysis

Abstract We present a method of extrapolating the spectroscopic behavior of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the near-infrared (NIR) wavelength regime up to 2.30 μ m using optical spectroscopy. Such a process is useful for accurately estimating K-corrections and other photometric quantities of SNe Ia in the NIR. A principal component analysis is performed on data consisting of Carnegie Supernova Project I & II optical and NIR FIRE spectra to produce models capable of making these extrapolations. This method differs from previous spectral template methods by not parameterizing models strictly by photometric light-curve properties of SNe Ia, allowing for more flexibility of the resulting extrapolated NIR flux. A difference of around −3.1% to −2.7% in the total integrated NIR flux between these extrapolations and the observations is seen here for most test cases including Branch core-normal and shallow-silicon subtypes. However, larger deviations from the observation are found for other tests, likely due to the limited high-velocity and broad-line SNe Ia in the training sample. Maximum-light principal components are shown to allow for spectroscopic predictions of the color-stretch light-curve parameter, s BV , within approximately ±0.1 units of the value measured with photometry. We also show these results compare well with NIR templates, although in most cases the templates are marginally more fitting to observations, illustrating a need for more concurrent optical+NIR spectroscopic observations to truly understand the diversity of SNe Ia in the NIR.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Automated Firearms Identification System (AFIDS), phase 1

Items critical to the future development of an automated firearms identification system (AFIDS) have been examined, with the following specific results: (1) Types of objective data, that can be utilized to help establish a more factual basis for determining identity and nonidentity between pairs of fired bullets, have been identified. (2) A simulation study has indicated that randomly produced lines, similar in nature to the individual striations on a fired bullet, can be modeled and that random sequences, when compared to each other, have predictable relationships. (3) A schematic diagram of the general concept for AFIDS has been developed and individual elements of this system have been briefly tested for feasibility. Future implementation of such a proposed system will depend on such factors as speed, utility, projected total cost and user requirements for growth. The success of the proposed system, when operational, would depend heavily on existing firearms examiners.

Blackwell, R. J.↗

The role of thermal contact resistance in pyrotechnic ignition

This paper describes a pyrotechnic ignition model based on transient heat conduction from a heated bridgewire to a pyrotechnic that is placed in contact with it. The boundary condition used at the interface was a thermal contact conductance estimated at 31,200 W per sq m-K between the wire and the pyrotechnic. Ignition was assumed to occur when a 2.5-micron layer of pyrotechnic next to the bridgewire reached a critical ignition temperature. The times to ignition predicted by this model for constant current firings were in good agreement with experimentally observed times to fire at 3.5- and 5-ampere current levels and ambient temperatures from 144 K to 366 K.

Sernas, V.↗

Expert systems applied to spacecraft fire safety

Expert systems are problem-solving programs that combine a knowledge base and a reasoning mechanism to simulate a human expert. The development of an expert system to manage fire safety in spacecraft, in particular the NASA Space Station Freedom, is difficult but clearly advantageous in the long-term. Some needs in low-gravity flammability characteristics, ventilating-flow effects, fire detection, fire extinguishment, and decision models, all necessary to establish the knowledge base for an expert system, are discussed.

Smith, Richard L.↗

Voyager 2 test of the radar time-delay effect

By analyzing radio range measurements generated during the solar conjunction of the Voyager 2 spacecraft in 1985, the relativistic time-delay effect has been tested accurately with a spacecraft at a distance of 3 x 10 to the 9th km from the earth. Because the range measurements were generated simultaneously at two frequencies on the downlink, it was possible to derive calibrations for the delay resulting from intervening solar plasma. In addition, a record of attitude thruster firings was used to model small accelerations of the spacecraft that could have produced a range error. It was thereby possible to determine the parameterized post-Newtonian parameter gamma to an accuracy of 3 percent with only a sparse amount of range data.

Krisher, Timothy P.↗

A new two-temperature dissociation model for reacting flows

A new two-temperature dissociation model for flows undergoing compression is derived from kinetic theory. The model minimizes uncertainties associated with the two-temperature model of Park. The effects of the model on AOTV type flowfields are examined and compared with the Park model. Calculations are carried out for flows with and without ionization. When considering flows with ionization, a four temperature model is employed. For Fire II conditions, the assumption of equilibrium between the vibrational and electron-electronic temperatures is somewhat poor. A similar statement holds for the translational and rotational temperatures. These trends are consistent with results obtained using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method.

Olynick, David R.↗