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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22

Final STS-11 (41-B) best estimate trajectory products: Development and results from the first Cape landing

The STS-11 (41-B) postflight data processing is completed and the results published. The final reconstructed entry trajectory is presented. The various atmospheric sources available for this flight are discussed. Aerodynamic Best Estimate of Trajectory BET generation and plots from this file are presented. A definition of the major maneuvers effected is given. Physical constants, including spacecraft mass properties; final residuals from the reconstruction process; trajectory parameter listings; and an archival section are included.

Kelly, G. M.↗

Deep Learning and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate Resilience

Modeling and monitoring of earth’s processes through physical models and satellite observations at high resolutions is crucial for ensuring society’s ability to adapt to climate change. Deep learning (DL) has been shown to be a valuable tool for generating high resolution data, emulating physical models, and detecting weather patterns which can then be used to inform stakeholders and decision makers. However, both the data and model parameters contain substantial uncertainties that may alter users’ decisions. In this work we present two DL applications on high-resolution climate and satellite datasets using Bayesian neural networks to generate well calibrated uncertainty estimates.

Vandal, Thomas↗

Data Validation in the Kepler Science Operations Center Pipeline

We present an overview of the Data Validation (DV) software component and its context within the Kepler ScienceOperations Center (SOC) pipeline and overall Kepler Science mission. The SOC pipeline performs a transiting planetsearch on the corrected light curves for over 150,000 targets across the focal plane array. We discuss the DV strategy forautomated validation of Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs) generated in the transiting planet search. For each TCE, atransiting planet model is fitted to the target light curve. A multiple planet search is conducted by repeating the transitingplanet search on the residual light curve after the model flux has been removed; if an additional detection occurs, aplanet model is fitted to the new TCE. A suite of automated tests are performed after all planet candidates have beenidentified. We describe a centroid motion test to determine the significance of the motion of the target photocenterduring transit and to estimate the coordinates of the transit source within the photometric aperture; a series of eclipsingbinary discrimination tests on the parameters of the planet model fits to all transits and the sequences of odd and eventransits; and a statistical bootstrap to assess the likelihood that the TCE would have been generated purely by chancegiven the target light curve with all transits removed.

photometry↗

Optimizing HAARP Beam Pattern for Generation of Strong F‐Region Field‐Aligned Irregularities

Field-aligned irregularities (FAIs) are the signatures of plasma turbulence and convection in the mid- and high-latitude F-region ionosphere, and also provide coherent backscatter targets for HF radars. To serve irregularity generation and characterization studies, we conducted experiments at the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) in August 2023 with the goal of identifying the optimal HAARP beam pattern for reliable generation of intense FAIs over a large geographic region. The HAARP beam patterns we tested were the commonly-used narrow beam, also known as L0, as well as the wider L1 and L2 “twisted” beam patterns. The size and intensity of the FAI region generated by each HAARP beam pattern was quantified using the Kodiak Island Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) radar. Stimulated electromagnetic emissions (SEE) from heater wave-FAI scattering were also recorded using a receiver located near HAARP. The L1 beam pattern was found to produce the strongest SuperDARN backscatter over the largest region. Although the heater frequency was intended to be tuned a few hundred kHz below the F-region critical frequency (foF2) during each experiment, difficulty in estimating foF2 during the campaign likely resulted in HAARP heating at significantly different frequency ranges around foF2 during each experiment. Although this additional free parameter complicated data analysis for this study, the SuperDARN and SEE measurements have led to further inquiry into the role heater frequency plays in the artificial generation of FAIs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Design and Development of Novel Equiatomic Refractory Multi Principal elemental Alloys Based on MoNbTi System for Use in Irradiation Environments

Multi Principal Elemental Alloys (MPEA) have emerged as promising materials for next-generation nuclear reactors due to their exceptional irradiation resistance. Eight equiatomic MPEA based on the MoNbTi system, comprising of elements with low thermal neutron absorption cross-sections were explored using a combined approach employing empirical parameter estimations, and CALPHAD simulations by which the phases and elemental segregation observed in all the alloys in the as-cast state were predicted. Solution heat treatment at 1500°C transformed five alloys into single-phase matrix materials, enhancing homogeneity and reducing hardness. The densities of the alloys ranged between 6.47 to 7.68 g/cm3, hardness between 472 and 656 VHN, Young’s modulus between 142 GPa to 169 GPa, shear modulus between 54 GPa and 62 GPa, bulk modulus between 117 GPa to 194 GPa and Poisson’s ratio between 0.3 to 0.35. The in-situ high temperature Xray diffraction results, differential scanning calorimetry and dilatometry results up to 1000°C suggested the high temperature phase stability of the MPEA. Subsequent ageing heat treatment at 800 and 1000 oC for 96 hours revealed significant secondary phase precipitation in MoNbTiZr, MoNbTiZrV, and MoNbTiCrA. Oxidation studies at 800 oC for 24 hours in air revealed superior oxidation resistance and cubic rate law dependence in Cr containing MPEA especially in MoNbTiCrAl, while severe mass gain resulting in total disintegration and exfoliation in MoNbTiZr and MoNbTiZrV. This comprehensive study underscores the potential of novel MPEA as promising materials for advanced nuclear reactor applications, shedding light on their microstructural control, mechanical properties, thermal stability, and oxidation resistance.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Semi-Supervised, Non-Intrusive Disaggregation of Nodal Load Profiles With Significant Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation

It is of imperative interests for regional transmission organizations (RTOs) to effectively extract actual load profiles at transmission nodes with significant behind-the-meter solar generation, which remains a gap in the existing technology paradigm. This paper proposes an explicit yet efficient linear estimator to disaggregate actual load profiles at transmission buses with significant behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generations. The proposed estimator is based on disaggregating (i.e., extracting) at locations close to transmission buses under consideration. Further, to overcome the lack of “ground truth” and validate the performance of the proposed algorithms, we first propose semi-supervised mechanisms with parameter tuning as well as unsupervised clustering and leverage the unique characteristics of zero-crossing points in BTM solar peaking behaviors, which we refer to as “Zone-to-Node (Z2N)” methods. Next, we further propose a bi-level Node-to-Node (N2N) framework that improves the overall disaggregation performances compared to Z2N. Numerical results are presented using real-world data at PJM Interconnection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Flight-path estimation in passive low-altitude flight by visual cues

A series of experiments was conducted, in which subjects had to estimate the flight path while passively being flown in straight or in curved motion over several types of nominally flat, textured terrain. Three computer-generated terrain types were investigated: (1) a random 'pole' field, (2) a flat field consisting of random rectangular patches, and (3) a field of random parallelepipeds. Experimental parameters were the velocity-to-height (V/h) ratio, the viewing distance, and the terrain type. Furthermore, the effect of obscuring parts of the visual field was investigated. Assumptions were made about the basic visual-field information by analyzing the pattern of line-of-sight (LOS) rate vectors in the visual field. The experimental results support these assumptions and show that, for both a straight as well as a curved flight path, the estimation accuracy and estimation times improve with the V/h ratio. Error scores for the curved flight path are found to be about 3 deg in visual angle higher than for the straight flight path, and the sensitivity to the V/h ratio is found to be considerably larger. For the straight motion, the flight path could be estimated successfully from local areas in the far field. Curved flight-path estimates have to rely on the entire LOS rate pattern.

Grunwald, Arthur J.↗

Integration of a Concentrating Solar Steam Topping Turbine to an Existing Geothermal Binary Power Plant (CRADA CRD-17-700 Final Report)

U.S. Geothermal Inc. is a publicly traded leading renewable energy company focused on the development, production, and sale of electricity from geothermal energy with operating generation facilities at Raft River, Idaho; San Emidio, Nevada; and Neal Hot Springs, Oregon. (U.S. Geothermal was acquired by Ormat Technologies, Inc. since the execution of this project). This project will evaluate the integration of a concentrating solar steam topping cycle with a geothermal bottoming binary cycle. This hybrid plant configuration will enable high efficiency conversion of the solar heat to electrical power, while simultaneously increasing the power output of the bottoming cycle. Such a design has the potential to reduce the cost of electrical power from concentrating solar power (CSP) and geothermal plants, and a viable design could be deployed at existing geothermal plants that have experienced resource productivity decline as well as in greenfield projects. This analysis will examine US Geothermal’s Raft River power plant for implementation of this concept. INL and NREL have previously collaborated in the analysis of geo-solar hybrid power plants. These two labs will again work together to model the solar field, steam-topping, and geothermal bottoming cycles in order to investigate the performance of the proposed cycle. This analysis will provide US Geothermal with technical information including equipment specifications and estimated power generation necessary to advance the concept toward implementation. A successful project outcome has two parts: One would be for US Geothermal to have a process flow diagram (heat and mass balance), and performance parameters for the major pieces of equipment. US Geothermal could then use this information evaluate the techno-economic feasibility of the hybrid power cycle, and serve as the basis for subsequent detailed equipment design, purchase, and installation of the cycle. The second would be for the developed solution to be published by DOE for use by other geothermal developers both to retrofit underperforming plants and to lower the LCOE of new developments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Seasat. Volume 4: Attitude determination

The Seasat project was a feasibility demonstration of the use of orbital remote sensing for global ocean observation. The satellite was launched in June 1978 and was operated successfully until October 1978. A massive electrical failure occurred in the power system, terminating the mission prematurely. The actual implementation of the Seasat Attitude Determination system and the contents of the attitude data files generated by that system are documented. The deviations from plan caused by the anomalous Sun interference with horizon sensors, inflight calibration of Sun sensor head 2 alignment and horizon sensor biomass, estimation of yaw interpolation parameters, Sun and horizon sensor error sources, and yaw interpolation accuracy are included. Examples are given of flight attitude data from all modes of the Orbital Attitude Control System, of the ground processing effects on attitude data, and of cold cloud effects on pitch, and roll data.

Treder, A. J.↗

Sunspots and solar variability

The analyses of Willson et al. (1981) and Hudson et al. (1981) are extended in correlating the total solar irradiance monitor (ACRIM) data with the routine synoptic sunspot data. At the simplest level, this correlation reveals clearly that the so-called 'missing flux' is truly missing in the sense that large young active regions do produce at net diminution of the irradiance when their spots cross the central meridian. It is pointed out that the irradiance deficit must of course be made up, either promptly or on intermediate time scales; this is because the surface effects cannot perturb the energy generation processes in the interior. In the approach taken here, simple models of the reemission are constructed, the total reemission is scaled to the estimated sunspot deficit, and an attempt is made to measure the parameters of the models by a statistical comparison with ACRIM data.

Hudson, H. S.↗

A Comparison of Metamodeling Techniques via Numerical Experiments

This paper presents a comparative analysis of a few metamodeling techniques using numerical experiments for the single input-single output case. These experiments enable comparing the models' predictions with the phenomenon they are aiming to describe as more data is made available. These techniques include (i) prediction intervals associated with a least squares parameter estimate, (ii) Bayesian credible intervals, (iii) Gaussian process models, and (iv) interval predictor models. Aspects being compared are computational complexity, accuracy (i.e., the degree to which the resulting prediction conforms to the actual Data Generating Mechanism), reliability (i.e., the probability that new observations will fall inside the predicted interval), sensitivity to outliers, extrapolation properties, ease of use, and asymptotic behavior. The numerical experiments describe typical application scenarios that challenge the underlying assumptions supporting most metamodeling techniques.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Bias Characterization, Vertical Interpolation, and Horizontal Interpolation for Distributed Wind Siting Using Mesoscale Wind Resource Estimates

Much like their counterparts in utility-scale wind energy, developers of industrial, small-scale and distributed wind turbine deployments need to understand and accurately characterize the wind resource to properly assess the power generation and financial ramifications during siting and planning. National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s WIND (Wind Integration National Dataset) Toolkit (WTK) provides a best-in-class wind resource dataset generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This dataset includes parameters such as the wind speed, wind direction, and temperature at various heights, plus atmospheric stability near the surface. This data is available at 2-km spatial resolution and five-minute temporal resolution across 7 years, from 2007 to 2013 through a publicly accessible API interface. The Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) project seeks to extend this dataset to allow long term resource estimates and leverage it to better equip distributed wind equipment manufacturers, owner-operators, and installation professionals with better tools for practical siting applications. In this report, we present the results from our investigation within the TAP project focused on characterization of bias in WTK-based wind speed estimates and evaluation of vertical and horizontal interpolation techniques. We discuss the tradeoffs between different techniques and their combinations, as well as describe the lower bounds we determine for the studied validation errors. While the specific estimates we present are specific to WTK and the validation dataset we have chosen for this investigation (NREL's Wind Resource Meteorological Database), the overall analysis and the studied techniques are general enough to be applied to a broader set of wind datasets, both simulation-based and observational.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

CME Velocity and Acceleration Error Estimates Using the Bootstrap Method

The bootstrap method is used to determine errors of basic attributes of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) visually identified in images obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission's Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) instruments. The basic parameters of CMEs are stored, among others, in a database known as the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog and are widely employed for many research studies. The basic attributes of CMEs (e.g. velocity and acceleration) are obtained from manually generated height-time plots. The subjective nature of manual measurements introduces random errors that are difficult to quantify. In many studies the impact of such measurement errors is overlooked. In this study we present a new possibility to estimate measurements errors in the basic attributes of CMEs. This approach is a computer-intensive method because it requires repeating the original data analysis procedure several times using replicate datasets. This is also commonly called the bootstrap method in the literature. We show that the bootstrap approach can be used to estimate the errors of the basic attributes of CMEs having moderately large numbers of height-time measurements. The velocity errors are in the vast majority small and depend mostly on the number of height-time points measured for a particular event. In the case of acceleration, the errors are significant, and for more than half of all CMEs, they are larger than the acceleration itself.

Michalek, Grzegorz↗

Data Validation in the Kepler Science Operations Center Pipeline

We present an overview of the Data Validation (DV) software component and its context within the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) pipeline and overall Kepler Science mission. The SOC pipeline performs a transiting planet search on the corrected light curves for over 150,000 targets across the focal plane array. We discuss the DV strategy for automated validation of Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs) generated in the transiting planet search. For each TCE, a transiting planet model is fitted to the target light curve. A multiple planet search is conducted by repeating the transiting planet search on the residual light curve after the model flux has been removed; if an additional detection occurs, a planet model is fitted to the new TCE. A suite of automated tests are performed after all planet candidates have been identified. We describe a centroid motion test to determine the significance of the motion of the target photocenter during transit and to estimate the coordinates of the transit source within the photometric aperture; a series of eclipsing binary discrimination tests on the parameters of the planet model fits to all transits and the sequences of odd and even transits; and a statistical bootstrap to assess the likelihood that the TCE would have been generated purely by chance given the target light curve with all transits removed. Keywords: photometry, data validation, Kepler, Earth-size planets

Wu, Hayley↗

Impact of genotype‐calling methodologies on genome‐wide association and genomic prediction in polyploids

Abstract Discovery and analysis of genetic variants underlying agriculturally important traits are key to molecular breeding of crops. Reduced representation approaches have provided cost‐efficient genotyping using next‐generation sequencing. However, accurate genotype calling from next‐generation sequencing data is challenging, particularly in polyploid species due to their genome complexity. Recently developed Bayesian statistical methods implemented in available software packages, polyRAD, EBG, and updog, incorporate error rates and population parameters to accurately estimate allelic dosage across any ploidy. We used empirical and simulated data to evaluate the three Bayesian algorithms and demonstrated their impact on the power of genome‐wide association study (GWAS) analysis and the accuracy of genomic prediction. We further incorporated uncertainty in allelic dosage estimation by testing continuous genotype calls and comparing their performance to discrete genotypes in GWAS and genomic prediction. We tested the genotype‐calling methods using data from two autotetraploid species, Miscanthus sacchariflorus and Vaccinium corymbosum , and performed GWAS and genomic prediction. In the empirical study, the tested Bayesian genotype‐calling algorithms differed in their downstream effects on GWAS and genomic prediction, with some showing advantages over others. Through subsequent simulation studies, we observed that at low read depth, polyRAD was advantageous in its effect on GWAS power and limit of false positives. Additionally, we found that continuous genotypes increased the accuracy of genomic prediction, by reducing genotyping error, particularly at low sequencing depth. Our results indicate that by using the Bayesian algorithm implemented in polyRAD and continuous genotypes, we can accurately and cost‐efficiently implement GWAS and genomic prediction in polyploid crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient and Collision-Free Anticipative Cruise Control in Randomly Mixed Strings

Connected intelligent vehicle following can improve safety and efficiency compared to today's road transport, but real traffic in the near future will not provide an ideal setting for its deployment. Unconnected human-driven vehicles will follow variable behavior patterns that combine with differences in dynamic capability to create heterogeneous scenarios. In this paper, connected automated vehicles employ model predictive control for following in traffic that may include both heavy and passenger vehicles at quasi-random positions. Adding further realism, some quasi-randomly mixed vehicles are completely unconnected and equipped with the reactive intelligent driver model using pseudorandom parameters. A mixed-integer quadratic programming formulation adapts the predictive algorithm to diverse powertrain operating point constraints. The preceding vehicle's control input is estimated from velocity and brake light observations and used to probabilistically generate a preview for the ego vehicle. Here, a terminal constraint designed using particle kinematics prevents collisions due to shortsightedness. Results are simulated at various heavy and predictive vehicle concentrations in the presence of packet loss. Linear fuel economy improvements between 1.4% and 1.9% per 10% increase in predictive vehicle penetration rate are shown.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

gcamland v1.0 – An R Package for Modelling Land Use and Land Cover Change

gcamland is an open source R package that was built to allocate land across a variety of types based on changes in agricultural yield and commodity price. The land allocation algorithm is based on the one included in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). gcamland includes the ability to run in a historical mode, enabling model validation and parameter estimation, or in a future mode, simulating changes in land use/land cover in the future. For both modes, gcamland can run a single simulation or a large ensemble of simulations with different parameters. When ensembles are generated in the historical mode, gcamland calculates the likelihood of a given parameter set by comparing to observational data. gcamland is publicly available via GitHub and has can be adjusted to represent alternative scenarios or configured to different regions and land types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Polarimetric SAR Interferometry Evaluation in Mangroves

TanDEM-X (TDX) enables to generate an interferometric coherence without temporal decorrelation effect that is the most critical factor for a successful Pol-InSAR inversion, as have recently been used for forest parameter retrieval. This paper presents mangrove forest height estimation only using single-pass/single-baseline/dual-polarization TDX data by means of new dual-Pol-InSAR inversion technique. To overcome a lack of one polarization in a conventional Pol- InSAR inversion (i.e. an underdetermined problem), the ground phase in the Pol-InSAR model is directly estimated from TDX interferograms assuming flat underlying topography in mangrove forest. The inversion result is validated against lidar measurement data (NASA's G-LiHT data).

Mangrove↗