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At least 397 records · Page 22

Assessing the Skill of Chlorophyll Forecasts: Latest Development and Challenges Ahead Using the Case of the Equatorial Pacific

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Nino event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p less than 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R=0.33), 8-month (R=0.42) and 9-month (R=0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 microgram chl L(exp -1)) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 microgram chl L(exp -1)). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Nino events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

El Nin↗

Preliminary Error Budget for the Reflected Solar Instrument for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) plans to observe climate change trends over decadal time scales to determine the accuracy of climate projections. The project relies on spaceborne earth observations of SI-traceable variables sensitive to key decadal change parameters. The mission includes a reflected solar instrument retrieving at-sensor reflectance over the 320 to 2300 nm spectral range with 500-m spatial resolution and 100-km swath. Reflectance is obtained from the ratio of measurements of the earth s surface to those while viewing the sun relying on a calibration approach that retrieves reflectance with uncertainties less than 0.3%. The calibration is predicated on heritage hardware, reduction of sensor complexity, adherence to detector-based calibration standards, and an ability to simulate in the laboratory on-orbit sources in both size and brightness to provide the basis of a transfer to orbit of the laboratory calibration including a link to absolute solar irradiance measurements. The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission addresses the need to observe high-accuracy, long-term climate change trends and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those in the IPCC Report. A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO Project will implement a spaceborne earth observation mission designed to provide rigorous SI traceable observations (i.e., radiance, reflectance, and refractivity) that are sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables, including: 1) Surface temperature and atmospheric temperature profile 2) Atmospheric water vapor profile 3) Far infrared water vapor greenhouse 4) Aerosol properties and anthropogenic aerosol direct radiative forcing 5) Total and spectral solar irradiance 6) Broadband reflected and emitted radiative fluxes 7) Cloud properties 8) Surface albedo There are two methods the CLARREO mission will rely on to achieve these critical decadal change benchmarks: direct and reference inter-calibration. A quantitative analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods has led to the recommended CLARREO mission approach. The project consists of two satellites launched into 90-degree, precessing orbits separated by 90 degrees. The instrument suite receiver on each spacecraft includes one emitted infrared spectrometer, two reflected solar spectrometers: dividing the spectrum from ultraviolet through near infrared, and one global navigation receiver for radio occultation. The measurements will be acquired for a period of three years minimum, with a five-year lifetime goal, enabling follow-on missions to extend the climate record over the decades needed to understand climate change. The current work concentrates on the reflected solar instrument giving an overview of its design and calibration approach. The calibration description includes the approach to achieving an SI-traceable system on orbit. The calibration overview is followed by a preliminary error budget based on techniques currently in place at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Thome, Kurtis↗

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Monitoring Global Sea Level: Eustatic Variations, Local Variations, and Solid Earth Effects

Project BIFROST (Baseline Inferences for Fennoscandian Rebound Observations. Sea-level and Tectonics) combines networks of continuously operating CPS receivers in Sweden and Finland to measure ongoing crustal deformation due to glacial isostatic adjustment, (CIA). We present an analysis of data collected in the years 1993-1998. We compare the CPS determinations of three-dimensional crustal motion to predictions calculated using the high resolution Fennoscandian deglaciation model recently proposed by Lambeck et al. We find that the the maximum observed uplift rate (approx. 10 mm/ yr) and the maximum predicted uplift rate agree to better than 1 mm/ yr. The patterns of uplift also agree quite well, although differences are discernible. The chi(exp 2) difference between predicted and GPS-observed radial rates is reduced by a factor of 5-6 compared to that for the "null" (no uplift) model, depending on whether a mean difference is first removed. The north components of velocity agree at about the same relative level. whereas the agreement for the east components is worse, a problem possibly related to the lack of bias fixing. We have also compared the values for the observed radial deformation rates to those based on sea-level rates from Baltic tide gauges. The weighted RMS difference between CPS and tide-gauge rates (after removing a mean) is 0.6 mm/ yr, giving an indication of the combined accuracy of the CPS and tide-gauge measurement systems. Spectral analysis of the time series of position estimates yields spectral indices in the range -1 to -2. An EOF analysis indicates, however, that much of this power is correlated among the sites. The correlation appears to be regional and falls off only slightly with distance. Some of this correlated noise is associated with snow accumulation on the antennas or, for those antennas with radomes, on the radomes. This problem has caused us to modify the radomes used several times, leading to one of our more significant sources of uncertainty.

Davis, James L.↗

The Feasibility of Tropospheric and Total Ozone Determination Using a Fabry-perot Interferometer as a Satellite-based Nadir-viewing Atmospheric Sensor

Monitoring of the global distribution of tropospheric ozone (O3) is desirable for enhanced scientific understanding as well as to potentially lessen the ill-health impacts associated with exposure to elevated concentrations in the lower atmosphere. Such a capability can be achieved using a satellite-based device making high spectral resolution measurements with high signal-to-noise ratios; this would enable observation in the pressure-broadened wings of strong O3 lines while minimizing the impact of undesirable signal contributions associated with, for example, the terrestrial surface, interfering species, and clouds. The Fabry-Perot Interferometer (FPI) provides high spectral resolution and high throughput capabilities that are essential for this measurement task. Through proper selection of channel spectral regions, the FPI optimized for tropospheric O3 measurements can simultaneously observe a stratospheric component and thus the total O3 column abundance. Decreasing stratospheric O3 concentrations may lead to an increase in biologically harmful solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the earth's surface, which is detrimental to health. In this research, a conceptual instrument design to achieve the desired measurement has been formulated. This involves a double-etalon fixed-gap series configuration FPI along with an ultra-narrow bandpass filter to achieve single-order operation with an overall spectral resolution of approximately .068 cm(exp -1). A spectral region of about 1 cm(exp -1) wide centered at 1054.73 cm(exp -1) within the strong 9.6 micron ozone infrared band is sampled with 24 spectral channels. Other design characteristics include operation from a nadir-viewing satellite configuration utilizing a 9 inch (diameter) telescope and achieving horizontal spatial resolution with a 50 km nadir footprint. A retrieval technique has been implemented and is demonstrated for a tropical atmosphere possessing enhanced tropospheric ozone amounts. An error analysis assessing the impact on retrieved O3 amounts of the most significant uncertainties associated with this particular measurement has been performed for several different types of atmospheres. Results show the proposed instrumentation to enable a good measurement of absolute ozone amounts and an even better determination of relative changes, with a range of accuracy to within 7.55 to 20.6 percent for integrated tropospheric amounts (and 1.99 to 4.02 percent for total O3 column abundance) and a corresponding range in precision to within 7.73 to 10.4 percent (and 3.30 to 3.95 percent for total O3 column abundance), for the atmospheric conditions considered.

Larar, Allen Maurice↗

Optimizing Orbit-Instrument Configuration for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Satellite Fleet

Following the scientific success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spearheaded by a group of NASA and NASDA scientists, their external scientific collaborators, and additional investigators within the European Union's TRMM Research Program (EUROTRMM), there has been substantial progress towards the development of a new internationally organized, global scale, and satellite-based precipitation measuring mission. The highlights of this newly developing mission are a greatly expanded scope of measuring capability and a more diversified set of science objectives. The mission is called the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). Notionally, GPM will be a constellation-type mission involving a fleet of nine satellites. In this fleet, one member is referred to as the "core" spacecraft flown in an approximately 70 degree inclined non-sun-synchronous orbit, somewhat similar to TRMM in that it carries both a multi-channel polarized passive microwave radiometer (PMW) and a radar system, but in this case it will be a dual frequency Ku-Ka band radar system enabling explicit measurements of microphysical DSD properties. The remainder of fleet members are eight orbit-synchronized, sun-synchronous "constellation" spacecraft each carrying some type of multi-channel PMW radiometer, enabling no worse than 3-hour diurnal sampling over the entire globe. In this configuration the "core" spacecraft serves as a high quality reference platform for training and calibrating the PMW rain retrieval algorithms used with the "constellation" radiometers. Within NASA, GPM has advanced to the pre-formulation phase which has enabled the initiation of a set of science and technology studies which will help lead to the final mission design some time in the 2003 period. This presentation first provides an overview of the notional GPM program and mission design, including its organizational and programmatic concepts, scientific agenda, expected instrument package, and basic flight architecture. Following this introduction, we focus specifically on the last topic, that being an analysis which leads to an optimal flight architecture dictated in part by science requirements but constrained by allowable orbital mechanics, instrument scan patterns, and antenna aperture properties. Because the optimal architecture involves an interplay between orbit mechanics and instrument specifications, it is important to recognize that in attempting to serve various scientific themes, the final optimal architecture will represent a compromise concerning dynamic range, spatial resolution, sampling interval, pointing, beam coincidence, and measurement uncertainty. Moreover, cost becomes a major factor in seeking the optimal architecture through the pathways of antenna and instrument scan designs, as well as propulsion requirements associated with the orbit heights of various "constellation" members. Although the results presented at the IGARSS-2001 meeting will likely not be the fully refined flight architecture specifications, they are expected to be nearly complete.

Smith, Eric A.↗

A Global End-Member Approach to Derive aCDOM(440) from Near-Surface Optical Measurements

This study establishes an optical inversion scheme for deriving the absorption coefficient of colored (or chromophoric, depending on the literature) dissolved organic material (CDOM) at the 440 nm wavelength, which can be applied to global water masses with near-equal efficacy. The approach uses a ratio of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectral end members, i.e., a short and long wavelength pair. The global perspective is established by sampling "extremely" clear water plus a generalized extent in turbidity and optical properties that each span three decades of dynamic range. A unique data set was collected in oceanic, coastal, and inland waters (as shallow as 0.6 m) from the North Pacific Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, Hawaii, Japan, Puerto Rico, and the east and west coasts of the United States. The data were partitioned using subjective categorizations to define a validation quality subset of conservative water masses, i.e., the inflow and outflow of properties constrain the range in the gradient of a constituent, plus 15 subcategories of water masses that were not evolving conservatively. The dependence on subcategories was confirmed with an objective methodology based on cluster analysis techniques. The latter defined five distinct classes with validation quality data present in all classes, but which also decreased in percent composition as a function of increasing class number and optical complexity. Four different algorithms based on different validation quality end members were validated with accuracies of 1.–6.2 %, wherein pairs with the largest spectral span were most accurate. Although algorithm accuracy decreased with the inclusion of more subcategories containing non-conservative water masses, changes to the algorithm fit were small when a preponderance of subcategories were included. The high accuracy for all end-member algorithms was the result of data acquisition and data processing improvements, e.g., increased vertical sampling resolution to less than 1mm and a boundary constraint to mitigate wave focusing effects, respectively. An independent evaluation with a historical database confirmed the consistency of the algorithmic approach and its application to quality assurance, e.g., to flag data outside expected ranges, identify suspect spectra, and objectively determine the in-water extrapolation interval by converging agreement for all applicable end-member algorithms. The legacy data exhibit degraded performance (as 44 % uncertainty) due to a lack of high-quality near-surface observations, especially for clear waters wherein wave-focusing effects are problematic. The novel optical approach allows the in situ estimation of an in-water constituent in keeping with the accuracy obtained in the laboratory.

Stanford B Hooker↗

Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-term Climate Change Through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM < or = 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5‑ and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

air quality↗

Regression Analysis of Long-Term Profile Ozone Data Set from BUV Instruments

We have produced a profile merged ozone data set (MOD) based on the SBUV/SBUV2 series of nadir-viewing satellite backscatter instruments, covering the period from November 1978 - December 2003. In 2004, data from the Nimbus 7 SBUV and NOAA 9, ll, and 16 SBUV/2 instruments were reprocessed using the Version 8 (V8) algorithm and most recent calibrations. More recently, data from the Nimbus 4 BUT instrument, which was operational from 1970 - 1977, were also reprocessed using the V8 algorithm. As part of the V8 profile calibration, the Nimbus 7 and NOAA 9 (1993-1997 only) instrument calibrations have been adjusted to match the NOAA 11 calibration, which was established based on comparisons with SSBUV shuttle flight data. Differences between NOAA 11, Nimbus 7 and NOAA 9 profile zonal means are within plus or minus 5% at all levels when averaged over the respective periods of data overlap. NOAA 16 SBUV/2 data have insufficient overlap with NOAA 11, so its calibration is based on pre-flight information. Mean differences over 4 months of overlap are within plus or minus 7%. Given the level of agreement between the data sets, we simply average the ozone values during periods of instrument overlap to produce the MOD profile data set. Initial comparisons of coincident matches of N4 BUV and Arosa Umkehr data show mean differences of 0.5 (0.5)% at 30km; 7.5 (0.5)% at 35 km; and 11 (0.7)% at 40 km, where the number in parentheses is the standard error of the mean. In this study, we use the MOD profile data set (1978-2003) to estimate the change in profile ozone due to changing stratospheric chlorine levels. We use a standard linear regression model with proxies for the seasonal cycle, solar cycle, QBO, and ozone trend. To account for the non-linearity of stratospheric chlorine levels since the late 1990s, we use a time series of Effective Chlorine, defined as the global average of Chlorine + 50 * Bromine at 1 hPa, as the trend proxy. The Effective Chlorine data are taken from the 3-D Goddard CTM. We will show the latest trend results using this statistical model. In addition, the Nimbus 4 BUV data offer an opportunity to test the physical properties of our statistical model. From ground-based comparisons we will establish an uncertainty range for the Nimbus 4 data. We then extrapolate our statistical model fit backwards in time and compare to the Nimbus 4 data. We compare the characteristics of the residual, defined as the difference between the data and statistical regression fit, during the Nimbus 4 time period and the 1978-2003 period over which the statistical model coefficients were estimated, and present these results.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

A Hyperspectral Inversion Framework for Estimating Absorbing Inherent Optical Properties and Biogeochemical Parameters in Inland and Coastal Waters

The simultaneous remote estimation of biogeochemical parameters (BPs) and inherent optical properties (IOPs) from hyperspectral satellite imagery of globally distributed optically distinct inland and coastal waters is a complex, unsolved, non-unique inverse problem. To tackle this problem, we leverage a machine-learning model termed Mixture Density Networks (MDNs). MDNs outperform operational algorithms by calculating the covariance between the simultaneously estimated products. We train the MDNs on a large ( N = 8237) dataset of co-aligned, in situ measured, hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance (R rs ), BPs, and absorbing IOPs from globally representative optically distinct inland and coastal waters. The estimated IOPs include absorption due to phytoplankton (a ph ), chromophoric dissolved organic matter (a cdom ), and non-algal particles (a nap ). The estimated BPs include chlorophyll-a, total suspended solids, and phycocyanin (PC). MDNs dramatically reduce uncertainty in the retrievals, relative to operational algorithms, when using a 50/50 dataset split, where the MDNs are trained on a randomly selected half of the in situ dataset and validated on the other half. Our model is shown to have higher, or equivalent, generalization performance than the calculated operational algorithms available for all BPs and IOPs (except PC) via a leave-one-out cross-validation assessment. The MDNs are sensitive to uncertainties in the hyperspectral satellite R rs , resulting from instrument noise and atmospheric correction; there is a difference of ~37.4–62.8% (using median symmetric accuracy) between the MDNs’ estimates derived from co-located satellite-derived R rs and in situ R rs . Of the IOPs, a cdom and a nap are less sensitive to uncertainties in hyperspectral satellite imagery relative to a ph , with remote estimates of a ph exhibiting incorrect spectral shape and magnitude relative to in situ measured IOPs. Despite the uncertainties in satellite derived R rs , the spatial distributions of BPs and IOPs in MDN-derived product maps of Lake Erie and the Curonian Lagoon, based on imagery taken with the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) and PRecursore Iper-Spettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), are confirmed via co-aligned in situ measurements and agree with the literature’s understanding of these well-studied regions. The consistency and accuracy of the model on HICO and PRISMA imagery, despite radiometric uncertainties, demonstrate its applicability to future hyperspectral missions, such as the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission, where the simultaneous estimation model will serve as a key part of phytoplankton community composition analysis.

Ryan E. O'Shea↗

A Proposed Extension to the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity Level 2 Algorithm for Mixed Forest and Moderate Vegetation Pixels

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS)mission, launched in November 2009, provides global maps of soil moisture and ocean salinity by measuring the L-band (1.4 GHz) emission of the Earth's surface with a spatial resolution of 40-50 km.Uncertainty in the retrieval of soilmoisture over large heterogeneous areas such as SMOS pixels is expected, due to the non-linearity of the relationship between soil moisture and the microwave emission. The current baseline soilmoisture retrieval algorithm adopted by SMOS and implemented in the SMOS Level 2 (SMOS L2) processor partially accounts for the sub-pixel heterogeneity of the land surface, by modelling the individual contributions of different pixel fractions to the overall pixel emission. This retrieval approach is tested in this study using airborne L-band data over an area the size of a SMOS pixel characterised by a mix Eucalypt forest and moderate vegetation types (grassland and crops),with the objective of assessing its ability to correct for the soil moisture retrieval error induced by the land surface heterogeneity. A preliminary analysis using a traditional uniform pixel retrieval approach shows that the sub-pixel heterogeneity of land cover type causes significant errors in soil moisture retrieval (7.7%v/v RMSE, 2%v/v bias) in pixels characterised by a significant amount of forest (40-60%). Although the retrieval approach adopted by SMOS partially reduces this error, it is affected by errors beyond the SMOS target accuracy, presenting in particular a strong dry bias when a fraction of the pixel is occupied by forest (4.1%v/v RMSE,-3.1%v/v bias). An extension to the SMOS approach is proposed that accounts for the heterogeneity of vegetation optical depth within the SMOS pixel. The proposed approach is shown to significantly reduce the error in retrieved soil moisture (2.8%v/v RMSE, -0.3%v/v bias) in pixels characterised by a critical amount of forest (40-60%), at the limited cost of only a crude estimate of the optical depth of the forested area (better than 35% uncertainty). This study makes use of an unprecedented data set of airborne L-band observations and ground supporting data from the National Airborne Field Experiment 2005 (NAFE'05), which allowed accurate characterisation of the land surface heterogeneity over an area equivalent in size to a SMOS pixel.

Panciera, Rocco↗

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Estimates Derived from SSMI Microwave Remote Sensing and NLDN

Lightning observations are collected using ground-based and satellite-based sensors. The National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) in the United States uses multiple ground sensors to triangulate the electromagnetic signals created when lightning strikes the Earth's surface. Satellite-based lightning observations have been made from 1998 to present using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and from 1995 to 2000 using the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) on the Microlab-1 satellite. Both LIS and OTD are staring imagers that detect lightning as momentary changes in an optical scene. Passive microwave remote sensing (85 and 37 GHz brightness temperatures) from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) has also been used to quantify characteristics of thunderstorms related to lightning. Each lightning detection system has fundamental limitations. TRMM satellite coverage is limited to the tropics and subtropics between 38 deg N and 38 deg S, so lightning at the higher latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres is not observed. The detection efficiency of NLDN sensors exceeds 95%, but the sensors are only located in the USA. Even if data from other ground-based lightning sensors (World Wide Lightning Location Network, the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection, and Canadian Lightning Detection Network) were combined with TRMM and NLDN, there would be enormous spatial gaps in present-day coverage of lightning. In addition, a globally-complete time history of observed lightning activity is currently not available either, with network coverage and detection efficiencies varying through the years. Previous research using the TRMM LIS and Microwave Imager (TMI) showed that there is a statistically significant correlation between lightning flash rates and passive microwave brightness temperatures. The physical basis for this correlation emerges because lightning in a thunderstorm occurs where ice is first present in the cloud and electric charge separation occurs. These ice particles efficiently scatter the microwave radiation at the 85 and 37 GHz frequencies, thus leading to large brightness temperature depressions. Lightning flash rate is related to the total amount of ice passing through the convective updraft regions of thunderstorms. Confirmation of this relationship using TRMM LIS and TMI data, however, remains constrained to TRMM observational limits of the tropics and subtropics. Satellites from the Defense Meteorology Satellite Program (DMSP) have global coverage and are equipped with passive microwave imagers that, like TMI, observe brightness temperatures at 85 and 37 GHz. Unlike the TRMM satellite, however, DMSP satellites do not have a lightning sensor, and the DMSP microwave data has never been used to derive global lightning. In this presentation, a relationship between DMSP Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) data and ground-based cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from NLDN is investigated to derive a spatially complete time history of CG lightning for the USA study area. This relationship is analogous to the established using TRMM LIS and TMI data. NLDN has the most spatially and temporally complete CG lightning data for the USA, and therefore provides the best opportunity to find geospatially coincident observations with SSMI sensors. The strongest thunderstorms generally have minimum 85 GHz Polarized Corrected brightness Temperatures (PCT) less than 150 K. Archived radar data was used to resolve the spatial extent of the individual storms. NLDN data for that storm spatial extent defined by radar data was used to calculate the CG flash rate for the storm. Similar to results using TRMM sensors, a linear model best explained the relationship between storm-specific CG flash rates and minimum 85 GHz PCT. However, the results in this study apply only to CG lightning. To extend the results to weaker storms, the probability of CG lightning (instead of the flash rate) was calculated for storms having 85 GHz PCT greater than 150 K. NLDN data was used to determine if a CG strike occurred for a storm. This probability of CG lightning was plotted as a function of minimum 85 GHz PCT and minimum 37 GHz PCT. These probabilities were used in conjunction with the linear model to estimate the CG flash rate for weaker storms with minimum 85 GHz PCTs greater than 150 K. Results from the investigation of CG lightning and passive microwave radiation signals agree with the previous research investigating total lightning and brightness temperature. Future work will take the established relationships and apply them to the decades of available DMSP data for the USA to derive a map of CG lightning flash rates. Validation of this method and uncertainty analysis will be done by comparing the derived maps of CG lightning flash rates against existing NLDN maps of CG lightning flash rates.

Winesett, Thomas↗

Measurement Capabilities of Planar Doppler Velocimetry in Large-Scale Wind Tunnels

Over the past few years, Planar Doppler Velocimetry (PDT) has been shown by several laboratories to offer an attractive means for measuring three-dimensional velocity vectors everywhere in a light sheet placed in a flow. Unlike some other optical means of measuring flow velocities, PDT is particularly attractive for use in large wind tunnels where distances to the sample region may be several meters, because it does not require the spatial resolution and tracking of individual scattering particles or the alignment of crossed beams at large distances. To date, demonstrations of PDT (also called Doppler Global Velocimetry by some authors) have been made either in low speed flows without quantitative comparison to other measurements, or in supersonic flows where the Doppler shift is large and its measurement is relatively insensitive to instrumental errors. Moreover, most reported applications have relied on the use of continuous-wave lasers, which limit the measurement to time-averaged velocity fields. This work summarizes the results of two previous studies of PDT in which the use of pulsed lasers to obtain instantaneous velocity vector fields is evaluated. The objective has been to quantitatively define and demonstrate PDT capabilities for applications in large-scale wind tunnels that are intended primarily for the testing of rotorcraft and subsonic aircraft at speeds typically less than 100 m/s. For such applications, the adequate resolution of low-speed flow fields requires accurate measurements of small Doppler shifts that are obtained at distances of several meters from the sample region and with a field of view that is sufficient to encompass the entire region of interest. The use of pulsed lasers provides the unique capability to obtain not only time-averaged fields, but also their statistical fluctuation amplitudes and the spatial excursions of unsteady flow regions such as wakes, separations, and rotor-tip vortices. To accomplish the objectives of these studies, the PDT measurement process was first modeled and its performance evaluated computationally. The noise sources considered included those related to the optical and electronic properties of Charge-Coupled Device (CCD) arrays and to speckle effects associated with the coherent illumination of aerosols from pulsed lasers. The signal noise estimates were incorporated into the PDT signal analysis process and combined with computed scattering signals using a Mae scattering theory for a distributed range of aerosol particle sizes. The results are used to define the necessary instrument configuration, to show that the expected signal levels from a practical PDT system are sufficiently large to allow its useful application in large facilities, and to show that the expected velocity measurement uncertainties are small compared to the mean velocities of interest for most subsonic, large-scale wind tunnel testing, Experimental studies using several bench-top setups are then described that validate the physics of the PDT model and demonstrate the ability to obtain accurate PDT measurements using procedures that are compatible with large-scale wind tunnel operations. The PDT measurement capabilities found in this study lead to the conclusion that PDT offers significant advantages compared to other means of measuring velocity fields in large-scale wind tunnels, including those operating at low speeds.

McKenzie, Robert L.↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Simulated Remote Sensing Polarimetric Observations Over Snow

This study presents a detailed theoretical assessment of the information content of passive polarimetric observations over snow scenes, using a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method. Conventional sensitivity studies focus on varying a single parameter while keeping all other parameters fixed. In contrast, the GSA correctly addresses the covariance of state parameters across their entire parameter space, hence favoring a more correct interpretation of inversion algorithms and the optimal design of their state vectors. The forward simulations exploit a vector radiative transfer model to obtain the Stokes vector emerging at the top of the atmosphere for different solar zenith angles, when the bottom boundary consists of a vertically resolved snowpack of non-spherical grains. The presence of light-absorbing particulates (LAPs), either embedded in the snow or aloft in the atmosphere above in the form of aerosols, is also considered. The results are presented for a set of wavelengths spanning the visible (VIS), near-infrared (NIR), and shortwave infrared (SWIR) region of the spectrum. The GSA correctly captures the expected, high sensitivity of the reflectance to LAPs in the VIS–NIR and to grain size at different depths in the snowpack in the NIR–SWIR. With adequate viewing geometries, mono-angle measurements of total reflectance in the VIS–SWIR (akin to those of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS) resolve grain size in the top layer of the snowpack sufficiently well. The addition of multi-angle polarimetric observations in the VIS–NIR provides information on grain shape and microscale roughness. The simultaneous sensitivity in the VIS–NIR to both aerosols and snow-embedded impurities can be disentangled by extending the spectral range to the SWIR, which contains information on aerosol optical depth while remaining essentially unaffected when the same particulates are mixed with the snow. Multi-angle polarimetric observations can therefore (i) effectively partition LAPs between the atmosphere and the surface, which represents a notorious challenge for snow remote sensing based on measurements of total reflectance only and (ii) lead to better estimates of grain shape and roughness and, in turn, the asymmetry parameter, which is critical for the determination of albedo. The retrieval uncertainties are minimized when the degree of linear polarization is used in place of the polarized reflectance. The Sobol indices, which are the main metric for the GSA, were used to select the state parameters in retrievals performed on data simulated for multiple instrument configurations. Improvements in retrieval quality with the addition of measurements of polarization, multi-angle views, and different spectral channels reflect the information content, identified by the Sobol indices, relative to each configuration. The results encourage the development of new remote sensing algorithms that fully leverage multi-angle and polarimetric capabilities of modern remote sensors. They can also aid flight planning activities, since the optimal exploitation of the information content of multi-angle measurements depends on the viewing geometry. The better characterization of surface and atmospheric parameters in snow-covered regions advances research opportunities for scientists of the cryosphere and ultimately benefits albedo estimates in climate models.

remote sensing↗

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗

Understanding The Top-Of-Atmosphere Fluxes Difference Between Aerocom Phase III Models And The CERES Product: Clear-Sky Perspective

The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project produces a long-term global climate data record (CDR) that can be used to detect decadal changes in the Earth’s radiation budget (ERB) from the surface to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA). The CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) product includes monthly mean shortwave (SW), longwave (LW), and net TOA all-sky and clear-sky radiative fluxes over 1-degree latitude by 1-degree longitude regions. The EBAF SW and LW fluxes are adjusted within their uncertainties to be consistent with the heat storage in the Earth-atmosphere system (Johnson et al. 2016). EBAF also provides a gap-free monthly mean clear-sky flux map by inferring clear-sky fluxes from both CERES and MODIS measurements (Loeb et al. 2018). In this study, we compare the TOA clear-sky fluxes from Aerocom phase III output with those from the CERES EBAF products. Flux differences over the ocean are generally smaller than over the land, and the magnitude of the differences shows seasonal and regional dependency. To understand the flux differences, aerosol optical depths (AOD) from the Aerocom models are compared with the satellite retrievals from MODIS and MISR. Over the ocean, the AOD differences and the flux differences show consistent regional features, indicating that the differences between models and observations are robust as the CERES EBAF clear-sky SW fluxes and MODIS/MISR AODs are determined independently. However, very little resemblance is found between the AOD and flux differences over the land. To further understand the cause of the flux differences over the land, we compare the land surface albedo from MODIS with the albedo from the models and find consistency in regional albedo differences and flux differences. Monthly regional radiative kernels of AOD and surface albedo derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data (Thorsen et al. 2020) are applied to AOD and surface albedo differences between models and observations. For most of the models, the AOD and surface albedo differences can explain most of the flux differences between models and CERES EBAF. The EOS era satellites have provided 20 years of carefully calibrated and validated observations that are suitable for trend analysis. Both the MODIS AOD and CERES EBAF clear-sky SW flux show decreasing trends over the coastal regions of eastern China and the eastern United States due to the emission control policies enforced in both countries, and an increasing trend off the coast of India. The AOD and clear-sky SW flux trends are less consistent over land, as the surface albedo changes complicate the clear-sky SW flux trend. The AOD and clear-sky SW flux trends from the Oslo model HIST run are also examined. However, none of the aforementioned regional trends are found in the model results.

Wenying Su↗

Analysis of Alternative Architectures for Cargo Lunar Landers

NASA’s Human Landing System (HLS) program has been working with commercial partners to develop human-class lunar landers to return the first American woman and next American man to the lunar surface in the mid 2020’s. In an effort to expand human presence beyond low Earth orbit, NASA’s Artemis program aims to facilitate a sustainable, long-term human presence in cis-lunar space. A component of this will require significant infrastructure to be delivered to the lunar surface. Delivering this infrastructure will require a significant lander capability that has yet to be developed. A thorough understanding of cargo lunar lander architectures is required such that select alternatives can be identified that best support the Artemis program’s objective of sustainability. The goal of this study is to aid NASA and its partners in the understanding of the cargo lunar lander trades space, as well as identify potential robust alternatives. The results will support NASA as it moves forward with key activities such as requirements formulation, agency strategic planning, and potential cargo lunar lander procurements. The study builds off of recent work performed by the Human Landing System program’s Architecture and Systems Analysis group to encompass a broad trade space of cargo lunar lander architecture alternatives. The current trade space as depicted by the morphological matrix and mission graph in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2, respectively, includes key alternative options that have become highly relevant due to current HLS activities and include on-orbit refueling, active cryogenic fluid management, Earth orbit aggregation, and global lunar access. The authors believe that there is also a statistically relevant impact of lander-payload configuration on the primary structure of the vehicle that could greatly impact alternative selection. Because of this, several conceptual lander-payload configurations will be evaluated to determine the level of impact. The current set of conceptual configurations are shown in Fig. 3 and Fig. 4. To aid the conceptual evaluation of these configurations, a catalogue of notional payloads has been developed that represent a wide range of masses and volumes that are expected to be delivered in support of a sustained human lunar presence, including pressurized and unpressurized rovers, surface habitats, power systems, and other support infrastructure. In order to execute this study in a timely fashion, a similar approach to that utilized in a similar 2019 study focused on 2024 human lunar sorties will be employed [1]. The team utilized a novel architecture synthesis framework currently being developed by NASA/MSFC to evaluate over 600,000 lunar lander architectures over a two month time frame [2]. From this large data set, varying ground rules and assumptions were applied as filters to explore the trade space to identify alternatives which exhibited robustness, as measured by launch vehicle payload margin, to absorb the natural growth that occurs during design maturation. The set of Earth-Moon system Delta-Vs assumed from the 2019 study, shown in Fig. 5, will be repurposed to accelerate model formulation for this effort. Additionally, current efforts in collaboration with the Georgia Institute of Technology’s Aerospace System Design Lab will be integrated to provide probabilistic modeling of the cargo lunar lander architectures to aid in identifying robust design alternatives [3]. The approach will help minimize potential impacts due to large levels of uncertainty inherent to pre phase-A conceptual design. By leveraging these past and present studies and partnerships, a highly detailed set of data can be generated in a short time period to aid NASA in the coming years to support the goal of a sustained human lunar presence.

Architectures↗

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗