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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon neutrality in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur: Insights from stakeholder-driven integrated assessment modeling

Several cities in Malaysia have established plans to reduce their CO2 emissions, in addition to Malaysia submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution to reduce its carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% in 2030 compared to 2005. Meeting these emissions reduction goals will require a joint effort between governments, industries, and corporations at different scales and across sectors. In collaboration with national and sub-national stakeholders, we developed and used a global integrated assessment model to explore emissions mitigation pathways in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur. Guided by current climate action plans, we created a suite of scenarios to reflect uncertainties in policy ambition, level of adoption, and implementation for reaching carbon neutrality. Through iterative engagement with all parties, we refined the scenarios and focus of the analysis to best meet the stakeholders’ needs. We found that Malaysia can reduce its carbon intensity and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, and that action in Kuala Lumpur can play a significant role. Decarbonization of the power sector paired with extensive electrification, energy efficiency improvements in buildings, transportation, and industry, and the use of advanced technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage will be major drivers to mitigate emissions, with carbon dioxide removal strategies being key to eliminate residual emissions. This study highlights the participatory process in which stakeholders contributed to the development of the model and guided the analysis, as well as insights into Malaysia’s decarbonization potential and the role of multilevel governance.

cities↗
NASA NTRS2016

Quantitative Validation of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) for ISS Missions

Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) provided observed medical event data on 33 ISS and 111 STS person-missions for use in further improving and validating the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). Using only the crew characteristics from these observed missions, the newest development version, IMM v4.0, will simulate these missions to predict medical events and outcomes. Comparing IMM predictions to the actual observed medical event counts will provide external validation and identify areas of possible improvement. In an effort to improve the power of detecting differences in this validation study, the total over each program ISS and STS will serve as the main quantitative comparison objective, specifically the following parameters: total medical events (TME), probability of loss of crew life (LOCL), and probability of evacuation (EVAC). Scatter plots of observed versus median predicted TMEs (with error bars reflecting the simulation intervals) will graphically display comparisons while linear regression will serve as the statistical test of agreement. Two scatter plots will be analyzed 1) where each point reflects a mission and 2) where each point reflects a condition-specific total number of occurrences. The coefficient of determination (R2) resulting from a linear regression with no intercept bias (intercept fixed at zero) will serve as an overall metric of agreement between IMM and the real world system (RWS). In an effort to identify as many possible discrepancies as possible for further inspection, the -level for all statistical tests comparing IMM predictions to observed data will be set to 0.1. This less stringent criterion, along with the multiple testing being conducted, should detect all perceived differences including many false positive signals resulting from random variation. The results of these analyses will reveal areas of the model requiring adjustment to improve overall IMM output, which will thereby provide better decision support for mission critical applications.

validation↗
NASA NTRS1984

Application of MAGSAT to Lithospheric Modeling in South America. Part 2: Synthesis of Geologic and Seismic Data for Development of Integrated Crustal Models

Research activities performed on MAGSAT scalar data over South America, Central America, and the adjacent marine areas are summarized. The geologic utility of magnetic anomalies detected by satellite is demonstrated by focusing on the spherical-Earth interpretation of scalar MAGSAT data in combination with ancillary geological and geophysical data to obtain lithospheric models for these regions related to their contemporary crustal dynamics processes, geologic history, current volcanism seismicity and natural resources.

Keller, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Nuclear Thermal Rocket - Arc Jet Integrated System Model

In the post-shuttle era, space exploration is moving into a new regime. Commercial space flight is in development and is planned to take on much of the low earth orbit space flight missions. With the development of a heavy lift launch vehicle, the Space Launch, System, NASA has become focused on deep space exploration. Exploration into deep space has traditionally been done with robotic probes. More ambitious missions such as manned missions to asteroids and Mars will require significant technology development. Propulsion system performance is tied to the achievability of these missions and the requirements of other developing technologies that will be required. Nuclear thermal propulsion offers a significant improvement over chemical propulsion while still achieving high levels of thrust. Opportunities exist; however, to build upon what would be considered a standard nuclear thermal engine to attain improved performance, thus further enabling deep space missions. This paper discuss the modeling of a nuclear thermal system integrated with an arc jet to further augment performance. The performance predictions and systems impacts are discussed.

Taylor, Brian D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

AToM: Advanced Tokamak Modeling Environment

Stability constraints play an important role in integrated modeling. The global plasma stability and macro-instabilities such as internal kink modes, neoclassical tearing modes, and edge localized perturbations limit the plasma performance and can result in large-scale transient events and plasma disruptions. These macro-instabilities can be also beneficial to the plasma performance. For example, the peeling models often lead to the edge localized modes (ELMs). However, the formation of stationary edge harmonic oscillations (EHOs) due to nonlinear interaction of peeling modes can result in a transition to the Quiescent H-mode (QH-mode) without ELMs. The profiles predicted with transport models need to be refined using the MHD stability constraints. This is important especially for transient and nonlinear stages of discharges such as ramp-up access to hybrid and steady state operation, and L- to H-mode transition as well as transition to the QH-mode. Several stability and MHD codes are already included in the OMFIT framework. These codes include BALOO, ELITE, GATO, M3DC1, MARS, and NIMROD. However, the verifications of stability constraints are currently mostly excluded from transport modeling workflows. The only exception is the EPED module which includes the ELITE predictions to limit the pedestal height. Here, we improved the OMFIT workflow to include stability calculations. Including the stability conditions to the integrated modeling workflow improved the robustness of the predictive modeling discharges. Being implemented in the workflow, the stability conditions can be also used for the stability analysis of experimental data. This improved the physics understanding of various discharge scenarios and can be used in experiment planning.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an Integrated Assessment Model

Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. However, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and food access due to both land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAM) are generally used to evaluate these policies; however, currently these models may not capture the importance of income and food prices for hunger and overall economic wellbeing. Here, we implement a measure of food security that captures the nutritional and economic aspects as the total expenditures on staple foods divided by income and weighted by total caloric consumption in an IAM, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM4.0). We then project consumer prices and our measure of food security along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Sustained economic growth underpins increases in caloric consumption and lowering expenditures on staple foods. Strict conservation policies affect food accessibility in a larger number of developing countries, whereas the negative effects of pricing terrestrial emissions is more concentrated on the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, by substantially replacing their cropland with forests and affecting the production of key staples.

Cui, Ryna↗
DOE OSTI2024

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Fingernail Injuries and NASA's Integrated Medical Model

The goal of space medicine is to optimize both crew health and performance. Currently, expert opinion is primarily relied upon for decision-making regarding medical equipment and supplies flown in space. Evidence-based decisions are preferred due to mass and volume limitations and the expense of space flight. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is an attempt to move us in that direction!

Kerstman, Eric↗
NASA NTRS1989

Local parallel models for integration of stereo matching constraints and intrinsic image combination

Parallel relaxation computations such as those of connectionist networks offer a useful model for constraint integration and intrinsic image combination in developing a general-purpose stereo matching algorithm. This paper describes such a stereo algorithm that incorporates hierarchical, surface-structure, and edge-appearance constraints that are redefined and integrated at the level of individual candidate matches. The algorithm produces a high percentage of correct decisions on a wide variety of stereo pairs. Its few errors arise when the correlation measures defined by the constraints are either weakened or ambiguous, as in the case of periodic patterns in the images. Two additional mechanisms are discussed for overcoming the remaining errors.

Stewart, Charles V.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Performance and Reliability Optimization for Aerospace Systems subject to Uncertainty and Degradation

This report summarizes work performed by the Space Systems Laboratory (SSL) for NASA Langley Research Center in the field of performance optimization for systems subject to uncertainty. The objective of the research is to develop design methods and tools to the aerospace vehicle design process which take into account lifecycle uncertainties. It recognizes that uncertainty between the predictions of integrated models and data collected from the system in its operational environment is unavoidable. Given the presence of uncertainty, the goal of this work is to develop means of identifying critical sources of uncertainty, and to combine these with the analytical tools used with integrated modeling. In this manner, system uncertainty analysis becomes part of the design process, and can motivate redesign. The specific program objectives were: 1. To incorporate uncertainty modeling, propagation and analysis into the integrated (controls, structures, payloads, disturbances, etc.) design process to derive the error bars associated with performance predictions. 2. To apply modern optimization tools to guide in the expenditure of funds in a way that most cost-effectively improves the lifecycle productivity of the system by enhancing the subsystem reliability and redundancy. The results from the second program objective are described. This report describes the work and results for the first objective: uncertainty modeling, propagation, and synthesis with integrated modeling.

Miller, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2021

ED1: Design and Prototype of a 3D Printed Wind Tunnel Model with Integrated Force Measurement

Wind tunnel testing using conventionally manufactured force measurement systems (balances) is able to yield precise and accurate results. These balances are delicate, complex instruments. Due to the nature of this high-precision complexity, balances are expensive and time-consuming to produce. These factors can limit the design potential of the model because using conventionally manufactured balances generally means that the model is designed to accommodate balances that already exist. Ideally, engineers would be able to design a measurement system that is tailored to fit the needs of the model, rather than the other way around. The goal of this research project was to determine if it is possible to overcome these drawbacks by designing a wind tunnel model with a modifiable integrated force measurement system that leverages additive manufacturing. This was undertaken by utilizing the existing UT-63 wind tunnel balance (measurement system), integrating it with a model based on the existing AGARD-B model, and performing stress analysis to optimize the design. Due to time constraints, the result of this endeavor is currently incomplete. Continued analysis and optimization are required to have a thorough understanding of the success or failure of the attempted design. As additive manufacturing technology evolves, the ability for it to become the primary method of fabrication for sensitive measurement systems increases. This project contributes to this by providing one method for design, a framework for optimizing existing balances for additive manufacturing, and resources for performing necessary stress analysis.

Callie Ellsworth↗
DOE OSTI2019

Optimizing complexity in the kinetic modelling of integrated flue gas purification for pressurized oxy-combustion

A 5-step mechanism and a corresponding kinetic model are presented for integrated flue gas purification, where SOx and NOx are removed during pressurized oxy-coal combustion. Three coupled subsystems (‘blocks”) of gas–liquid transformations are considered: 1) oxidation of NO to NO 2 and dissolution of NO 2 in water; 2) dissolution of SO 2 in the water; and 3) interactions between S- and N- containing substances in the liquid phase. The model has been formulated in terms of only species that can be experimentally measured (model of optimal complexity). Subsystem I is limiting regarding NO removal. Subsystem II is very fast in comparison with the other subsystems and can be treated separately. Analytical expressions for all independent subsystems have been found and compared with computational results for the whole system. The temporal domain of validity of all these subsystems is presented. Finally, the validity of the NO 2 quasi-steady-state assumption is verified, and it is reported that variables such as NO, NO 2 and HNO 3 can be considered decoupled from the whole system since they appear in only Subsystem I, while HSO 3 - and HNO 2 are coupled. The presented kinetic model was verified experimentally by determining the 1:1 ratio of HNO 2 and HNO 3 , in gas–liquid NO-O 2 interaction. Additionally, new experimental facts on kinetic orders and stoichiometry between HNO 2 and HSO 3 - have been used to optimize the model. It is concluded that all NO x - SO x interactions can be essentially grasped by a sequence of only 4 irreversible reactions considering, in addition, the 5th reaction, i.e. the fast ‘SO 2 -water’ equilibrium.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ontological Modeling for Integrated Spacecraft Analysis

Current spacecraft work as a cooperative group of a number of subsystems. Each of these requiresmodeling software for development, testing, and prediction. It is the goal of my team to create anoverarching software architecture called the Integrated Spacecraft Analysis (ISCA) to aid in deploying the discrete subsystems' models. Such a plan has been attempted in the past, and has failed due to the excessive scope of the project. Our goal in this version of ISCA is to use new resources to reduce the scope of the project, including using ontological models to help link the internal interfaces of subsystems' models with the ISCA architecture.I have created an ontology of functions specific to the modeling system of the navigation system of a spacecraft. The resulting ontology not only links, at an architectural level, language specificinstantiations of the modeling system's code, but also is web-viewable and can act as a documentation standard. This ontology is proof of the concept that ontological modeling can aid in the integration necessary for ISCA to work, and can act as the prototype for future ISCA ontologies.

ontological modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-enabled model-data integration for predicting subsurface water storage

Subsurface water storage (SWS) is a key variable of the climate system and a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the climate system. It plays a critical role in climate-change projections and can mitigate the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. However, because of the difficult accessibility of the underground, hydrologic properties and dynamics of SWS are poorly known. Direct observations of SWS are limited, and accurate incorporation of SWS dynamics into Earth system land models remains challenging. We propose a machine learning-enabled model-data integration framework to improve the SWS prediction at local to conus scales in a changing climate by leveraging all the available observation and simulation resources, as well as to inform the model development and guide the observation collection. The accurate prediction will enable an optimal decision of water management and land use and improve the ecosystem's resilience to the climate change.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems (PIPES): A Tool for Integrated System Planning [Slides]

The Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems (PIPES) is a comprehensive project, data, and workflow management tool designed for integrated modeling teams. PIPES facilitates the management of data requirements, tasks, and progress tracking, serving as a higher-level integration layer that works across various data and modeling software. This tool integrates models, data, and tools to perform large-scale, integrated analysis work at scale. PIPES is designed to streamline integrated modeling projects, enhance collaboration, and ensure the quality and efficiency of data management and workflow processes. This presentation introduces PIPES a multi-model tool for integrated system planning; it describes the underlying architecture, deep dives into common user workflows, and outlines the upcoming development roadmap beyond its current alpha state.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1988

Diagnosis by integrating model-based reasoning with knowledge-based reasoning

Our research investigates how observations can be categorized by integrating a qualitative physical model with experiential knowledge. Our domain is diagnosis of pathologic gait in humans, in which the observations are the gait motions, muscle activity during gait, and physical exam data, and the diagnostic hypotheses are the potential muscle weaknesses, muscle mistimings, and joint restrictions. Patients with underlying neurological disorders typically have several malfunctions. Among the problems that need to be faced are: the ambiguity of the observations, the ambiguity of the qualitative physical model, correspondence of the observations and hypotheses to the qualitative physical model, the inherent uncertainty of experiential knowledge, and the combinatorics involved in forming composite hypotheses. Our system divides the work so that the knowledge-based reasoning suggests which hypotheses appear more likely than others, the qualitative physical model is used to determine which hypotheses explain which observations, and another process combines these functionalities to construct a composite hypothesis based on explanatory power and plausibility. We speculate that the reasoning architecture of our system is generally applicable to complex domains in which a less-than-perfect physical model and less-than-perfect experiential knowledge need to be combined to perform diagnosis.

Bylander, Tom↗