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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22

Estimation of the accuracy of dynamic flight-determined coefficients

This paper discusses means of assessing the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained from dynamic flight data. The commonly used analytical predictors of accuracy are compared from both statistical and simplified geometric standpoints. Emphasizing practical considerations, such as modeling error, the accuracy predictions are evaluated with real and simulated data. Improved computations of the Cramer-Rao bound to correct large discrepancies caused by colored noise and modeling error are presented. This corrected Cramer-Rao bound is the best available analytical predictor of accuracy. Engineering judgement, aided by such analytical tools, is the final arbiter of accuracy estimation.

Maine, R. E.↗

An optical model for composite nuclear scattering

The optical model of composite particle scattering is considered and compared to the accuracies of other models. A nonrelativistic Schroedinger equation with two-body potentials is used for the scattering of a single particle by an energy-dependent local potential. The potential for the elastic channel is composed of matrix elements of a single scattering operator taken between the ground states of the projectile and the target; the coherent amplitude is considered as dominating the scattering in the forward direction. A multiple scattering series is analytically explored and formally summed by the solution of an equivalent Schroedinger equation. Cross sections of nuclear scattering are then determined for He-4 and C-12 nuclei at 3.6 GeV/nucleus and O-16 projectiles at 2.1 GeV/nucleus, and the optical model approximations are found to be consistently lower and more accurate than approximations made by use of Glauber's theory.

Wilson, J. W.↗

Aerothermal modeling program, phase 1

The physical modeling embodied in the computational fluid dynamics codes is discussed. The objectives were to identify shortcomings in the models and to provide a program plan to improve the quantitative accuracy. The physical models studied were for: turbulent mass and momentum transport, heat release, liquid fuel spray, and gaseous radiation. The approach adopted was to test the models against appropriate benchmark-quality test cases from experiments in the literature for the constituent flows that together make up the combustor real flow.

Sturgess, G. J.↗

Mesoscale research activities with the LAMPS model

Researchers achieved full implementation of the LAMPS mesoscale model on the Atmospheric Sciences Division computer and derived balanced and real wind initial states for three case studies: March 6, April 24, April 26, 1982. Numerical simulations were performed for three separate studies: (1) a satellite moisture data impact study using Vertical Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) precipitable water as a constraint on model initial state moisture analyses; (2) an evaluation of mesoscale model precipitation simulation accuracy with and without convective parameterization; and (3) the sensitivity of model precipitation to mesoscale detail of moisture and vertical motion in an initial state.

Kalb, M. W.↗

Improving the Representation of Land in Climate Models by Application of EOS Observations

The PI's IDS current and previous investigation has focused on the applications of the land data toward the improvement of climate models. The previous IDS research identified the key factors limiting the accuracy of climate models to be the representation of albedos, land cover, fraction of landscape covered by vegetation, roughness lengths, surface skin temperature and canopy properties such as leaf area index (LAI) and average stomatal conductance. Therefore, we assembled a team uniquely situated to focus on these key variables and incorporate the remotely sensed measures of these variables into the next generation of climate models.

Source record↗

Short-term solar pressure effect and GM uncertainty on TDRS orbital accuracy: A study of the interaction of modeling error with tracking and orbit determination

The TDRS was modeled as a combination of a sun-pointing solar panel and earth-pointing plate. Based on this model, explanations are given for the following orbit determination error characteristics: inherent limits in orbital accuracy, the variation of solar pressure induced orbital error with time of the day of epoch, the insensitivity of range-rate orbits to GM error, and optimum bilateration baseline.

Fang, B. T.↗

Ionospheric calibration for single frequency altimeter measurements

This report investigates the potential of using Global Positioning System (GPS) data and a model of the ionosphere to supply a measure of the sub-satellite Total Electron Current (TEC) of the required accuracy (10 TECU rms) for the purpose of calibrating single frequency radar altimeter measurements. Since climatological (monthly mean) models are known to be in error by as much as 50 percent, this work focused on the Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM) which has the capability to improve model accuracy by ingesting (adjusting to) in situ ionospheric measurements. A set of globally distributed TEC measurements were generated using GPS data and were used as input to improve the accuracy of the PRISM model. The adjusted PRISM TEC values were compared to TOPEX dual frequency TEC measurements (which are considered truth) for a number of TOPEX sub-satellite tracks. The adjusted PRISM values generally compared to the TOPEX measurements within the 10 TECU accuracy requirements when the sub-satellite track passed within 300 to 400 km of the GPS TEC data or when the track passed through a night time ionosphere. However, when the sub-satellite points were greater than 300 to 400 km away from the GPS TEC data or when a local noon ionosphere was sampled, the adjusted PRISM values generally differed by greater than 10 TECU rms with data excursions from the TOPEX TEC measurements of as much as 40 TECU (an 8 cm path delay error at K band). Therefore, it can be concluded from this analysis that an unrealistically large number of GPS stations would be needed to predict sub-satellite TEC at the 10 TECU level in the day time ionosphere using a model such as PRISM. However, a technique currently being studied at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) may provide a means of supplying adequate TEC data to meet the 10 TECU ionospheric correction accuracy when using a realistic number of ionospheric stations. This method involves using global GPS TEC data to estimate a global grid of vertical ionospheric TEC as a function of time (i.e. every one half hour) in a sun-fixed longitude frame. Working in a sun-fixed longitude frame, one is not limited by the spatial decorrelation distance of the ionosphere, but instead is limited more by the temporal correlations of the ionosphere in the sun-fixed frame which are a smaller effect. It is the opinion of the authors that using the global sun-fixed TEC grid data, in particular, ingesting it into PRISM, offers the best possibility of meeting the 10 TECU ionospheric correction accuracy requirement, and should be the subject of further study.

Schreiner, William S.↗

Conical-Domain Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays

The conical-domain model is a computational model, now undergoing development, for estimating ionospheric delays of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. Relative to the standard ionospheric delay model described below, the conical-domain model offers improved accuracy. In the absence of selective availability, the ionosphere is the largest source of error for single-frequency users of GPS. Because ionospheric signal delays contribute to errors in GPS position and time measurements, satellite-based augmentation systems (SBASs) have been designed to estimate these delays and broadcast corrections. Several national and international SBASs are currently in various stages of development to enhance the integrity and accuracy of GPS measurements for airline navigation. In the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) of the United States, slant ionospheric delay errors and confidence bounds are derived from estimates of vertical ionospheric delay modeled on a grid at regularly spaced intervals of latitude and longitude. The estimate of vertical delay at each ionospheric grid point (IGP) is calculated from a planar fit of neighboring slant delay measurements, projected to vertical using a standard, thin-shell model of the ionosphere. Interpolation on the WAAS grid enables estimation of the vertical delay at the ionospheric pierce point (IPP) corresponding to any arbitrary measurement of a user. (The IPP of a given user s measurement is the point where the GPS signal ray path intersects a reference ionospheric height.) The product of the interpolated value and the user s thin-shell obliquity factor provides an estimate of the user s ionospheric slant delay. Two types of error that restrict the accuracy of the thin-shell model are absent in the conical domain model: (1) error due to the implicit assumption that the electron density is independent of the azimuthal angle at the IPP and (2) error arising from the slant-to-vertical conversion. At low latitudes or at mid-latitudes under disturbed conditions, the accuracy of SBAS systems based upon the thin-shell model suffers due to the presence of complex ionospheric structure, high delay values, and large electron density gradients. Interpolation on the vertical delay grid serves as an additional source of delay error. The conical-domain model permits direct computation of the user s slant delay estimate without the intervening use of a vertical delay grid. The key is to restrict each fit of GPS measurements to a spatial domain encompassing signals from only one satellite. The conical domain model is so named because each fit involves a group of GPS receivers that all receive signals from the same GPS satellite (see figure); the receiver and satellite positions define a cone, the satellite position being the vertex. A user within a given cone evaluates the delay to the satellite directly, using (1) the IPP coordinates of the line of sight to the satellite and (2) broadcast fit parameters associated with the cone. The conical-domain model partly resembles the thin-shell model in that both models reduce an inherently four-dimensional problem to two dimensions. However, unlike the thin-shell model, the conical domain model does not involve any potentially erroneous simplifying assumptions about the structure of the ionosphere. In the conical domain model, the initially four-dimensional problem becomes truly two-dimensional in the sense that once a satellite location has been specified, any signal path emanating from a satellite can be identified by only two coordinates; for example, the IPP coordinates. As a consequence, a user s slant-delay estimate converges to the correct value in the limit that the receivers converge to the user s location (or, equivalently, in the limit that the measurement IPPs converge to the user s IPP).

Sparks, Lawrence↗

Assessing damping uncertainty in space structures with fuzzy sets

NASA has been interested in the development of methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models. This interest stems from the use of mathematical models in evaluating the structural integrity of all spacecraft prior to flight. Space structures are often too large and too weak to be tested fully assembled in a ground test lab. The predictive accuracy of a model depends on the nature and extent of its experimental verification. The further the test conditions depart from in-service conditions, the less accurate the model will be. Structural damping is known to be one source of uncertainty in models. The uncertainty in damping is explored in order to evaluate the accuracy of dynamic models. A simple mass-spring-dashpot system is used to illustrate a comparison among three methods for propagating uncertainty in structural dynamics models: the First Order Method, the Numerical Simulation Method, and the Fuzzy Set Method. The Fuzzy Set Method is shown to bound the range of possible responses and thus to provide a valuable limiting check on the First Order Method near resonant conditions. Fuzzy Methods are a relative inexpensive alternative to numerical simulation.

Ross, Timothy J.↗

Evaluation of atmospheric density models and preliminary functional specifications for the Langley Atmospheric Information Retrieval System (LAIRS)

This document presents the results of an extensive survey and comparative evaluation of current atmosphere and wind models for inclusion in the Langley Atmospheric Information Retrieval System (LAIRS). It includes recommended models for use in LAIRS, estimated accuracies for the recommended models, and functional specifications for the development of LAIRS.

Lee, T.↗

Microwave solar limb brightening

Previous models of microwave limb brightening have omitted the alignment of spicules along supergranule boundaries, have neglected the high temperature sheath around spicules, and have assumed an interspicular medium which was averaged over chromospheric network and nonnetwork regions. A model is presented here which includes these factors. Constraining the model to conform to results from earlier UV and optical studies in effect leaves two free parameters: the temperature at the core of the spicules and (at solar minimum) the interspicular chromospheric network density model of the lower transition zone. The absence of limb brightening at the short millimeter wavelengths implies a temperature at the core of the spicules less than approximately 6000 K. Differences between the model and certain deconvolved observations near 9 mm are expected as a consequence of an extension of emission beyond the optical limb, predicted by the model, which affects the accuracy of the deconvolution technique. Unlike models which assume homogeneous spicules in a random distribution, the model presented here does not require an abnormally high spicule area.

Ahmad, I. A.↗

Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

Spadoni, D. J.↗

Sensitivity analysis of automatic flight control systems using singular value concepts

A sensitivity analysis is presented that can be used to judge the impact of vehicle dynamic model variations on the relative stability of multivariable continuous closed-loop control systems. The sensitivity analysis uses and extends the singular-value concept by developing expressions for the gradients of the singular value with respect to variations in the vehicle dynamic model and the controller design. Combined with a priori estimates of the accuracy of the model, the gradients are used to identify the elements in the vehicle dynamic model and controller that could severely impact the system's relative stability. The technique is demonstrated for a yaw/roll damper stability augmentation designed for a business jet.

Herrera-Vaillard, A.↗

Gravity modeling of Mars and Venus at NASA/GSFC

The paper describes the results from the development of improved high-resolution gravity models of Mars and Venus carried out at Goddard Space Flight Center, together with the solution design and the tracking data employed. These models are spherical harmonic expansions complete to degrees 50 and 36 for Mars and Venus, respectively. Both models result in improved orbital computation accuracies over previously available models, and in improved resolution of geophysical features. The paper also discusses new developments anticipated in the future.

Smith, D. E.↗

Impact of Local Sensors

Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) wind tower network and the CCAFS (XMR) daily rawinsonde observations (RAOB) to issue and verify wind advisories and warnings for operations. These observations are also used by the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) in Houston, Texas and the NWS Melbourne, Florida (NWS MLB) to initialize their locally-run mesoscale models. In addition, SMG uses these observations to support shuttle landings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). Due to impending budget cuts, some or all of the KSC/CCAFS wind towers on the east-central Florida mainland and the XMR RAOBs may be eliminated. The locations of the mainland towers and XMR RAOB site are shown in Figure I. The loss of these data may impact the forecast capability of the 45 WS, SMG and NWS MLB. The AMU was tasked to conduct an objective independent modeling study to help determine how important these observations are to the accuracy of the model output used by the forecasters. To accomplish this, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) performed a sensitivity study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with and without KSC/CCAFS wind tower and XMR RAOB data.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Development of a GCR Event-based Risk Model

A goal at NASA is to develop event-based systems biology models of space radiation risks that will replace the current dose-based empirical models. Complex and varied biochemical signaling processes transmit the initial DNA and oxidative damage from space radiation into cellular and tissue responses. Mis-repaired damage or aberrant signals can lead to genomic instability, persistent oxidative stress or inflammation, which are causative of cancer and CNS risks. Protective signaling through adaptive responses or cell repopulation is also possible. We are developing a computational simulation approach to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) effects that is based on biological events rather than average quantities such as dose, fluence, or dose equivalent. The goal of the GCR Event-based Risk Model (GERMcode) is to provide a simulation tool to describe and integrate physical and biological events into stochastic models of space radiation risks. We used the quantum multiple scattering model of heavy ion fragmentation (QMSFRG) and well known energy loss processes to develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo based model of GCR transport in spacecraft shielding and tissue. We validated the accuracy of the model by comparing to physical data from the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Our simulation approach allows us to time-tag each GCR proton or heavy ion interaction in tissue including correlated secondary ions often of high multiplicity. Conventional space radiation risk assessment employs average quantities, and assumes linearity and additivity of responses over the complete range of GCR charge and energies. To investigate possible deviations from these assumptions, we studied several biological response pathway models of varying induction and relaxation times including the ATM, TGF -Smad, and WNT signaling pathways. We then considered small volumes of interacting cells and the time-dependent biophysical events that the GCR would produce within these tissue volumes to estimate how GCR event rates mapped to biological signaling induction and relaxation times. We considered several hypotheses related to signaling and cancer risk, and then performed simulations for conditions where aberrant or adaptive signaling would occur on long-duration space mission. Our results do not support the conventional assumptions of dose, linearity and additivity. A discussion on how event-based systems biology models, which focus on biological signaling as the mechanism to propagate damage or adaptation, can be further developed for cancer and CNS space radiation risk projections is given.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative Modeling Experiments (ISOGAME)

ISOGAME is designed and developed to assess quantitatively the impact of new observation systems on the capability of imaging and modeling the ionosphere. With ISOGAME, one can perform observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs). A typical OSSE using ISOGAME would involve: (1) simulating various ionospheric conditions on global scales; (2) simulating ionospheric measurements made from a constellation of low-Earth-orbiters (LEOs), particularly Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation data, and from ground-based global GNSS networks; (3) conducting ionospheric data assimilation experiments with the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM); and (4) analyzing modeling results with visualization tools. ISOGAME can provide quantitative assessment of the accuracy of assimilative modeling with the interested observation system. Other observation systems besides those based on GNSS are also possible to analyze. The system is composed of a suite of software that combines the GAIM, including a 4D first-principles ionospheric model and data assimilation modules, an Internal Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model that has been developed by international ionospheric research communities, observation simulator, visualization software, and orbit design, simulation, and optimization software. The core GAIM model used in ISOGAME is based on the GAIM++ code (written in C++) that includes a new high-fidelity geomagnetic field representation (multi-dipole). New visualization tools and analysis algorithms for the OSSEs are now part of ISOGAME.

Pi, Xiaoqing↗