Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “model selection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22

Nonspherical and Spherical Characterization of Ice in Hurricane Erin for Wideband Passive Microwave Comparisons

In order to better understand the characteristics of frozen cloud particles in hurricane systems, computed brightness temperatures were compared with radiometric observations of Hurricane Erin (2001) from the NASA ER-2 aircraft. The focus was oil the frozen particle microphysics and the high frequencies (2 85 GHz) that are particularly sensitive to frozen particles. Frozen particles in hurricanes are an indicator of increasing hurricane intensity. In fact "hot towers" associated with increasing hurricane intensity are composed of frozen ice cloud particles. (They are called hot towers because their column of air is warmer than the surrounding air temperature, but above about 5-7 km to the tops of the towers at 15-19 km, the cloud particles are frozen.) This work showed that indeed, one can model information about cloud ice particle characteristics and indicated that nonspherical ice shapes, instead of spherical particles, provided the best match to the observations. Overall, this work shows that while non-spherical particles show promise, selecting and modeling a proper ice particle parameterization can be difficult and additional in situ measurements are needed to define and validate appropriate parameterizations. This work is important for developing Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission satellite algorithms for the retrieval of ice characteristics both above the melting layer, as in Hurricane Erin, and for ice particles that reach the surface as falling snow.

Skofronick-Jackson, Gail↗

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ESD Reviews: Model Dependence in Multi-Model Climate Ensembles: Weighting, Sub-Selection and Out-Of-Sample Testing

The rationale for using multi-model ensembles in climate change projections and impacts research is often based on the expectation that different models constitute independent estimates; therefore, a range of models allows a better characterisation of the uncertainties in the representation of the climate system than a single model. However, it is known that research groups share literature, ideas for representations of processes, parameterisations, evaluation data sets and even sections of model code. Thus, nominally different models might have similar biases because of similarities in the way they represent a subset of processes, or even be near-duplicates of others, weakening the assumption that they constitute independent estimates. If there are near-replicates of some models, then treating all models equally is likely to bias the inferences made using these ensembles. The challenge is to establish the degree to which this might be true for any given application. While this issue is recognised by many in the community, quantifying and accounting for model dependence in anything other than an ad-hoc way is challenging. Here we present a synthesis of the range of disparate attempts to define, quantify and address model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles in a common conceptual framework, and provide guidance on how users can test the efficacy of approaches that move beyond the equally weighted ensemble. In the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), several new models that are closely related to existing models are anticipated, as well as large ensembles from some models. We argue that quantitatively accounting for dependence in addition to model performance, and thoroughly testing the effectiveness of the approach used will be key to a sound interpretation of the CMIP ensembles in future scientific studies.

Abramowitz, Gab↗

A Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Perspective for the High Lift Common Research Model Using the LAVA Framework

An in-depth assessment of the High Lift-Common Research Model (HL-CRM) aerodynamic performance is made using a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methodology. Results presented here were produced in support of the 4th AIAA High Lift Prediction Workshop(HLPW-4), with additional simulation results and analysis used to support findings from the workshop. Mesh resolution, RANS closure models, and tunnel effects were among the sources of simulation sensitivity addressed, all in the pursuit of evaluating best-practice simulation methods for complex high-lift configurations. In general, free-air simulations using RANS yield accurate predictions of integrated loads in the pre-stall regime for the HL-CRM, while strong sensitivity to simulation method is observed near CLmax. Additionally, a study assessing changes in aerodynamic performance due to flap deflection angle indicated strong sensitivity to turbulence model closure and mesh resolution, particularly at the highest deflection setting. Several available corrections for the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model were tested and generally introduced more error relative to the experiment in comparison to the baseline SA closure model. The Standard Menter Baseline Two-Equation (k-ωBSL) turbulence model was also explored, which arguably yielded results highly consistent with experiment, but at a substantially higher computational cost. Therefore, as a compromise between computational cost and accuracy, the baseline SA closure model was selected for additional HL-CRM studies that assess alternative solution methods. These strategies include “warm start” approaches, which initialize the simulation from a previously converged solution at a nearby angle of attack, unsteady calculations, and simulations that model the experimental wind tunnel. Results from these studies would reinforce the shortcomings of RANS in predicting aircraft performance at high-lift conditions, namely at high-αand highly loaded flap conditions, while also answering questions about appropriate modeling techniques to minimize the errors associated with RANS where possible

TTT↗

Supplementary table, figures and DNA sequences of sorghum gene models SbiRTx430.01G455400 and SbiRTx.02G006600 that feature primers, gRNAs and indels created

In-context promoter bashing via genome editing is a route to identify and characterize critical regulatory regions that govern expression of genes of interest. The outcomes of in-context promoter bashing can be used to inform editing strategies to modulate the expression of selected gene models in a desired fashion. Here we employed in-context promoter bashing to characterize the proximal upstream regulatory regions of sorghum genes encoding phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (Sb.PEPCK.BS, SbiTx430.01G455400) and alanine aminotransferase (SbiTx430.02G006600, SbAlaAT.BS), two proteins involved in the PCK C4 pathway. Characterized germinal edits within the targeted regions upstream of these two genes ranged in size from 138 bp up to 1790 bp. A 138 bp within the Sb.PEPCK.BS upstream region and a 1643 bp element within the Sb.AlaAT.BS upstream region were determined to be important for maintenance of transcription levels. No change in development or various physiological parameters was observed in characterized lineages carrying promoter edits. However, significant changes in seed reserves and a reduction in 100 seed weight were consistently observed, under both greenhouse and field environments, in plants carrying an edit in the promoter of Sb.PEPCK.BS gene were significantly reduced in transcript accumulation for this gene.

Quach, Truyen [Center for Plant Science Innovation↗

X-33 Telemetry Best Source Selection, Processing, Display, and Simulation Model Comparison

The X-33 program requires the use of multiple telemetry ground stations to cover the launch, ascent, transition, descent, and approach phases for the flights from Edwards AFB to landings at Dugway Proving Grounds, UT and Malmstrom AFB, MT. This paper will discuss the X-33 telemetry requirements and design, including information on fixed and mobile telemetry systems, best source selection, and support for Range Safety Officers. A best source selection system will be utilized to automatically determine the best source based on the frame synchronization status of the incoming telemetry streams. These systems will be used to select the best source at the landing sites and at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center to determine the overall best source between the launch site, intermediate sites, and landing site sources. The best source at the landing sites will be decommutated to display critical flight safety parameters for the Range Safety Officers. The overall best source will be sent to the Lockheed Martin's Operational Control Center at Edwards AFB for performance monitoring by X-33 program personnel and for monitoring of critical flight safety parameters by the primary Range Safety Officer. The real-time telemetry data (received signal strength, etc.) from each of the primary ground stations will also be compared during each nu'ssion with simulation data generated using the Dynamic Ground Station Analysis software program. An overall assessment of the accuracy of the model will occur after each mission. Acknowledgment: The work described in this paper was NASA supported through cooperative agreement NCC8-115 with Lockheed Martin Skunk Works.

Burkes, Darryl A.↗

In–context promoter bashing of the Sorghum bicolor gene models functionally annotated as bundle sheath cell preferred expressing phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase and alanine aminotransferase

In-context promoter bashing via genome editing is a route to identify and characterize critical regulatory regions that govern expression of genes of interest. The outcomes of in-context promoter bashing can be used to inform editing strategies to modulate the expression of selected gene models in a desired fashion. Here, we employed in-context promoter bashing to characterize the proximal upstream regulatory regions of sorghum genes encoding phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase bundle sheath (SbPEPCK.BS, SbiTx430.01G455400) and alanine aminotransferase bundle sheath (SbAlaAT.BS, SbiTx430.02G006600), two proteins involved in the PCK C 4 pathway. Characterized germinal edits within the targeted regions upstream of these two genes ranged in size from 138 up to 1790 bp. A 138 bp within the SbPEPCK.BS upstream region and a 1643 bp element within the SbAlaAT.BS upstream region were determined to be important for maintenance of transcription levels. No change in development or various physiological parameters was observed in characterized lineages carrying promoter edits. However, significant changes in seed reserves and a reduction in 100-seed weight were consistently observed, under both greenhouse and field environments, in plants carrying an edit in the promoter of SbPEPCK.BS gene, which were significantly reduced in transcript accumulation for this gene.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Task-Analytic Approach to the Determination of Training Requirements for the Precision Descent

A task-analytic approach was used to evaluate the results from an experiment comparing two training methods for the "Precision Descent," a cockpit procedure designed to complement a new, computer-based air traffic control advisory system by allowing air traffic controllers to assign precise descent trajectories to aircraft. A task model was developed for the procedure using a methodology that represents four different categories of task-related knowledge: (1) ability to determine current flight goals; (2) ability to assess the current flight situation relative to those goals; (3) operational knowledge about flight-related tasks; and (4) knowledge about task selection. This model showed what knowledge experienced pilots already possessed, and how that knowledge was supplemented by training material provided in the two training conditions. All flight crews were given a "Precision Descent Chart" that explained the procedure's clearances and compliance requirements. This information enabled pilots to establish appropriate flight goals for the descent, and to monitor their compliance with those goals. In addition to this chart, half of the crews received a "Precision Descent Bulletin" containing technique recommendations for performing procedure-related tasks. The Bulletin's recommendations supported pilots in task selection and helped clarify the procedure's compliance requirements. Eight type-rated flight crews flew eight Precision Descents in a Boeing 747-400 simulator, with four crews in each of the two training conditions. Both conditions (Chart and Chart-with-Bulletin) relied exclusively on the use of those documents to introduce the procedure. No performance feedback was provided during the experiment. Preliminary result show better procedure compliance and higher acceptability ratings from flight crews in the Chart-with-Bulletin condition. These crews performed flight-related tasks less efficiently, however, using the simpler but less efficient methods suggested in the Bulletin. When a more efficient method was recognized, these crews tended to use the more efficient method in addition to the Bulletin's recommendation, instead of replacing it.

Smith, Nancy↗

Planetary Defense: Options for Deflection of Near Earth Objects

Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This document reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of Near Earth Objects (NEO’s) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are then given of an MSFC-led study, intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEO’s. An existing program, used to model the NEO threat, was extensively modified and is presented here. Details of various analytical tools, developed to evaluate the performance of proposed technologies for protection against the NEO threat, are also presented. Trajectory tools, developed to model the outbound path a vehicle would take to intercept or rendezvous with a target asteroid or comet, are described. Also, details are given of a tool that was created to model both the un-deflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, post-deflection, path. The number of possible options available for protection against the NEO threat was too numerous for them to all be addressed within the study; instead, a representative selection were modeled and evaluated. The major output from this work was a novel process by which the relative effectiveness of different threat mitigation concepts can be evaluated during future, more detailed, studies. In addition, several new or modified mathematical models were developed to analyze various proposed protection systems. A summary of the major lessons learned during this study is presented, as are recommendations for future work. It is hoped that this study will serve to raise the level attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.

Planets↗

Design strategies for ion-sieving charge mosaic membranes toward sustainable lithium extraction

Membrane-based technologies are essential for realizing sustainable ion-sieving processes such as lithium extraction. Much effort was devoted to designing new membrane materials, whereas the effect of charge distribution has been largely overlooked. Here, we filled this knowledge gap by providing a quantitative transport model for selective ion diffusion through a charge mosaic membrane (CMM). Composed of alternating regions of Li-selective ceramic and anion-selective polymeric materials, CMMs offered the unique advantage of promoting the transport of both Li + and anions while blocking other cations. As a result, the membrane achieved a high Li/Mg selectivity of 62 and a high permeation rate of 59 mmol·m −2 ·h −1 at a low feeding concentration of 30 mM, without any external driving force. Systematical experiments revealed the influence of brine Mg/Li ratio and membrane ceramic/polymer ratio on the overall extraction rate, which was consistent with the prediction of our transport model. In conclusion, the model developed in this work not only presented the design strategies of CMMs for Li extraction but also provided guidance for the development of other ion-sieving processes in general.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Constitutive modeling for isotropic materials

A state-of-the-art review of applicable constitutive models with selection of two for detailed comparison with a wide range of experimental tests was conducted. The experimental matrix contained uniaxial and biaxial tensile, creep, stress relaxation, and cyclic fatigue tests at temperatures to 1093 C and strain rates from .0000001 to .001/sec. Some nonisothermal cycles will also be run. The constitutive models will be incorporated into the MARC finite element structural analysis program with a demonstration computation made for advanced turbine blade configuration. In the code development work, particular emphasis is being placed on developing efficient integration algorithms for the highly nonlinear and stiff constitutive equations. Another area of emphasis is the appropriate and efficient methodology for determing constitutive constants from a minimum extent of experimental data.

Lindholm, U. S.↗

Toward Spatial Control of Reaction Selectivity on Photocatalysts Using Area-Selective Atomic Layer Deposition on the Model Dual Site Electrocatalyst Platform

Photocatalytic water splitting is a promising route to low-cost, green H 2 . However, this approach is currently limited in its solar-to-hydrogen conversion efficiency. One major source of efficiency loss is attributed to the high rates of undesired side and back reactions, which are exacerbated by the proximity of neighboring oxidation and reduction sites. Nanoscopic oxide coatings have previously been used to selectively block undesired reactants from reaching active sites; however, a coating encapsulating the entire photocatalyst particle limits activity as it cannot facilitate both half-reactions. In this work, area selective atomic layer deposition (AS-ALD) was used to selectively deposit semipermeable TiO 2 films onto model metallic cocatalysts for enhancing reaction selectivity while maintaining a high overall activity. Pt and Au were used as exemplary reduction and oxidation cocatalyst sites, respectively, where Au was deactivated toward ALD growth through self-assembled thiol monolayers while TiO 2 was coated onto Pt sites. Electroanalytical measurements of monometallic thin film electrodes showed that the TiO 2 -encapsulated Pt effectively suppressed undesired H 2 oxidation and Fe(II)/Fe(III) redox reactions while still permitting the desired hydrogen evolution reaction (HER). A planar model photocatalyst platform containing patterned interdigitated arrays of Au and Pt microelectrodes was further assessed using scanning electrochemical microscopy (SECM), demonstrating the successful use of AS-ALD to enable local reaction selectivity in a dual-reaction-site (photo)electrocatalytic system. Finally, interdigitated microelectrodes having independent potential control were used to show that selectively deposited TiO 2 coatings can suppress the rate of back reactions on neighboring active sites by an order of magnitude compared with uncoated control samples.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Towards Anomaly Detection at the CMS High-Level Trigger System

Traditional trigger strategies in CMS typically rely on model-dependent selections or rigid kinematic cuts, risking the omission of unexpected exotic signatures. To address this, we propose a novel anomaly detection (AD) algorithm for the High-Level Trigger (HLT), designed to serve as a complementary second layer of filtering to the Level-1 AXOL1TL AD algorithm. We employ a transformer-based foundation model trained on a diverse ensemble of Standard Model processes. By combining a joint contrastive and classification objective, and using particle kinematics as inputs, the model learns to map events to a physics-informed latent space where anomalous events are isolated from dominant backgrounds. Preliminary results show that this strategy enhances the signal-to-background ratio across a range of rare SM and BSM scenarios. Furthermore, this work constitutes foundational R&D for the potential implementation of an analogous AD algorithm in the Level-1 trigger system for Phase-2.

Cruz, Roy [U. Wisconsin, Madison (main)] (ORCID:00↗

Aeroheating model advancements featuring electroless metallic plating

Discussed are advancements in wind tunnel model construction methods and hypersonic test data demonstrating the methods. The general objective was to develop model fabrication methods for improved heat transfer measuring capability at less model cost. A plated slab model approach was evaluated with cast models containing constantan wires that formed single-wire-to-plate surface thermocouple junctions with a seamless skin of electroless nickel alloy. The surface of a space shuttle orbiter model was selectively plated with scaled tiles to simulate, with high fidelity, the probable misalignments of the heatshield tiles on a flight vehicle. Initial, Mach 8 heating results indicated a minor effect of tile misalignment roughness on boundary layer transition, implying a possible relaxation of heatshield manufacturing tolerances. Some loss of the plated tiles was experienced when the model was tested at high heating rates.

Stalmach, C. J., Jr.↗

Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials

The results are presented of a program designed to develop life prediction and constitutive models for two coated single crystal alloys used in gas turbine airfoils. The two alloys are PWA 1480 and Alloy 185. The two oxidation resistant coatings are PWA 273, an aluminide coating, and PWA 286, an overlay NiCoCrAlY coating. To obtain constitutive and fatigue data, tests were conducted on uncoated and coated specimens loaded in the CH76 100 CH110 , CH76 110 CH110 , CH76 111 CH110 and CH76 123 CH110 crystallographic directions. Two constitutive models are being developed and evaluated for the single crystal materials: a micromechanic model based on crystallographic slip systems, and a macroscopic model which employs anisotropic tensors to model inelastic deformation anisotropy. Based on tests conducted on the overlay coating material, constitutive models for coatings also appear feasible and two initial models were selected. A life prediction approach was proposed for coated single crystal materials, including crack initiation either in the coating or in the substrate. The coating initiated failures dominated in the tests at load levels typical of gas turbine operation. Coating life was related to coating stress/strain history which was determined from specimen data using the constitutive models.

Swanson, G. A.↗

Mathematical Model Of Curing Behavior Of A Polymer

Mathematical model predicts selected aspects of chemical, thermal and mechanical responses of polymeric liner and propellant materials during curing process. Predictions made both prior to processing and during process in quasi-real time. Developed specifically for use in designing and analyzing process in which bondline materials (including polymeric liners) and propellant cast and cured in rocket motor. With modifications, model applicable to curing of other polymeric materials. Further development may provide direct "in-line" program for calculations, including comparisons, in real time. This will constitute basis for more sophisticated control of process.

Loomis, Willard C.↗

SKYSURF: Constraints on Zodiacal Light and Extragalactic Background Light through Panchromatic HST All-sky Surface-brightness Measurements: II. First Limits on Diffuse Light at 1.25, 1.4, and 1.6 μm

We present the first results from the HST Archival Legacy project "SKYSURF." As described in Windhorst et al., SKYSURF utilizes the large HST archive to study the diffuse UV, optical, and near-IR backgrounds and foregrounds in detail. Here, we utilize SKYSURF's first sky-surface-brightness measurements to constrain the level of near-IR diffuse Extragalactic Background Light (EBL) in three near-IR filters (F125W, F140W, and F160W). This is done by comparing our preliminary sky measurements of >30,000 images to zodiacal light models, carefully selecting the darkest images to avoid contamination from stray light. Our sky-surface-brightness measurements have been verified to an accuracy of better than 1%, which when combined with systematic errors associated with HST, results in sky-brightness uncertainties of ∼ 2%–4% ≃ 0.005 MJy sr−1 in each image. When compared to the Kelsall et al. zodiacal model, an isotropic diffuse background of ∼30 nW m−2 sr−1 remains, whereas using the Wright zodiacal model results in no discernible diffuse background. Based primarily on uncertainties in the foreground model subtraction, we present limits on the amount of diffuse EBL of 29, 40, and 29 nW m−2 sr−1, for F125W, F140W, and F160W, respectively. While this light is generally isotropic, our modeling at this point does not distinguish between a cosmological origin or a solar system origin (such as a dim, diffuse, spherical cloud of cometary dust).

Timothy Carleton↗

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗