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NASA NTRS2013

Evidence of Temporal Variation of Titan Atmospheric Density in 2005-2013

One major science objective of the Cassini mission is an investigation of Titan's atmosphere constituent abundances. Titan's atmospheric density is of interest not only to planetary scientists but also to mission design and mission control engineers. Knowledge of the dependency of Titan's atmospheric density with altitude is important because any unexpectedly high atmospheric density has the potential to tumble the spacecraft during a flyby. During low-altitude Titan flyby, thrusters are fired to counter the torque imparted on the spacecraft due to the Titan atmosphere. The denser the Titan's atmosphere is, the higher are the duty cycles of the thruster firings. Therefore thruster firing telemetry data could be used to estimate the atmospheric torque imparted on the spacecraft. Since the atmospheric torque imparted on the spacecraft is related to the Titan's atmospheric density, atmospheric densities are estimated accordingly. In 2005-2013, forty-three low-altitude Titan flybys were executed. The closest approach altitudes of these Titan flybys ranged from 878 to 1,074.8 km. Our density results are also compared with those reported by other investigation teams: Voyager-1 (in November 1980) and the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument, HASI (in January 2005). From our results, we observe a temporal variation of the Titan atmospheric density in 2005-2013. The observed temporal variation is significant and it isn't due to the estimation uncertainty (5.8%, 1 sigma) of the density estimation methodology. Factors that contributed to this temporal variation have been conjectured but are largely unknown. The observed temporal variation will require synergetic analysis with measurements made by other Cassini science instruments and future years of laboratory and modeling efforts to solve. The estimated atmospheric density results are given in this paper help scientists to better understand and model the density structure of the Titan atmosphere.

Atmosphere↗

NASA NTRS2017

Daily Ambient Air Pollution Metrics for Five Cities: Evaluation of Data Fusion-Based Estimates and Uncertainties

Spatiotemporal characterization of ambient air pollutant concentrations is increasingly relying on the combination of observations and air quality models to provide well-constrained, spatially and temporally complete pollutant concentration fields. Air quality models, in particular, are attractive, as they characterize the emissions, meteorological, and physiochemical process linkages explicitly while providing continuous spatial structure. However, such modeling is computationally intensive and has biases. The limitations of spatially sparse and temporally incomplete observations can be overcome by blending the data with estimates from a physically and chemically coherent model, driven by emissions and meteorological inputs. We recently developed a data fusion method that blends ambient ground observations and chemical transport-modeled (CTM) data to estimate daily, spatially resolved pollutant concentrations and associatedcorrelations. In this study, we assess the ability of the data fusion method to produce daily metrics (i.e., 1-hr max, 8-hr max, and 24-hr average) of ambient air pollution that capture spatiotemporal air pollution trends for 12 pollutants (CO, NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, PM (sub10), PM (sub 2.5), and five PM (sub 2.5) components) across five metropolitan areas (Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis), from 2002 to 2008. Three sets of comparisons are performed: (1) the CTM concentrations are evaluated for each pollutant and metropolitan domain, (2) the data fusion concentrations are compared with the monitor data, (3) a comprehensive cross-validation analysis against observed data evaluates the quality of the data fusion model simulations across multiple metropolitan domains. The resulting daily spatial field estimates of air pollutant concentrations and uncertainties are not only consistent with observations, emissions, andmeteorology, but substantially improve CTM-derived results for nearly all pollutants and all cities, with the exception of NO2 for Birmingham. The greatest improvements occur for O3 and PM (sub 2.5). Squared spatiotemporal correlation coefficients range between simulations and observations determined using cross-validation across all cities for air pollutants of secondary and mixed origins are R-squared equal to 0.88-0.93 (O3), 0.81-0.89 (SO4), 0.67-0.83 (PM (sub 2.5)), 0.52-0.72 (NO3), 0.43-0.80 (NH4), 0.32-0.51 (OC), and 0.14-0.71 (PM (sub 10)). Results for relatively homogeneous pollutants of secondary origin, tend to be better than those for more spatially heterogeneous (larger spatial gradients) pollutants of primary origin (NOx, CO, SO2 and EC). Generally, background concentrations and spatial concentration gradients reflect interurban airshed complexity and the effects of regional transport, whereas daily spatial pattern variability shows intra urban consistency in the fused data. With sufficiently high CTM spatial resolution, traffic-related pollutants exhibit gradual concentration gradients that peak toward the urban centers. Ambient pollutant concentration uncertainty estimates for the fused data are both more accurate and smaller than those for either the observations or the model simulations alone.

spatiotemporal fusion↗

NASA NTRS2018

Methodologies for Verification and Validation of Space Launch System (SLS) Structural Dynamic Models

Responses to challenges associated with verification and validation (V&V) of Space Launch System (SLS) structural dynamics models are presented in this paper. Four methodologies addressing specific requirements for V&V are discussed. (1) Residual Mode Augmentation (RMA), which has gained acceptance by various principals in the NASA community, defines efficient and accurate FEM modal sensitivity models that are useful in test-analysis correlation and reconciliation and parametric uncertainty studies. (2) Modified Guyan Reduction (MGR) and Harmonic Reduction (HR, introduced in 1976), developed to remedy difficulties encountered with the widely used Classical Guyan Reduction (CGR) method, are presented. MGR and HR are particularly relevant for estimation of "body dominant" target modes of shell-type SLS assemblies that have numerous "body", "breathing" and local component constituents. Realities associated with configuration features and "imperfections" cause "body" and "breathing" mode characteristics to mix resulting in a lack of clarity in the understanding and correlation of FEM- and test-derived modal data. (3) Mode Consolidation (MC) is a newly introduced procedure designed to effectively "de-feature" FEM and experimental modes of detailed structural shell assemblies for unambiguous estimation of "body" dominant target modes. Finally, (4) Experimental Mode Verification (EMV) is a procedure that addresses ambiguities associated with experimental modal analysis of complex structural systems. Specifically, EMV directly separates well-defined modal data from spurious and poorly excited modal data employing newly introduced graphical and coherence metrics.

Coppolino, Robert N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An LES Survey of Cold-Air Outbreaks Spanning ACTIVATE and COMBLE

Two recent field campaigns offer unique new opportunities to survey coupled aerosol and cloud processes operating within cold-air outbreaks (CAOs). NASA's 2019-2023 Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) project provided airborne in situ and remote sensing observations in multiple CAOs off the central US Eastern Seaboard. Contemporaneously, DOE's 2019-2020 Cold-air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) provided continuous ground-based in situ and remote sensing measurements during hundreds of hours of CAO conditions at two sites flanking the Norwegian Sea. Here we highlight lessons learned from contrasting sets of aerosol-aware Lagrangian large-eddy simulation case studies derived from each campaign, as well as outstanding uncertainties. Cases simulated include all of the most extensively sampled CAO flights during ACTIVATE, and a wide range of CAO strengths and mesoscale structures during COMBLE. Each case study is also suitable for simulation with large-scale models in single-column model mode or with a limited-domain approach using periodic boundary conditions. We seek to address the central question: what microphysical process pathways control the Lagrangian evolution of surface and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes under ACTIVATE and COMBLE conditions? Many science team members, co-investigators, and collaborators will be gratefully acknowledged in association with their contributions to making this work possible.

cold-air outbreaks↗

NASA NTRS1994

Multi-Flight-Phase GPS Navigation Filter Applications to Terrestrial Vehicle Navigation and Positioning

A candidate onboard space navigation filter demonstrated excellent performance (less than 8 meter level RMS semi-major axis accuracy) in performing orbit determination of a low-Earth orbit Explorer satellite using single-frequency real GPS data. This performance is significantly better than predicted by other simulation studies using dual-frequency GPS data. The study results revealed the significance of two new modeling approaches evaluated in the work. One approach introduces a single-frequency ionospheric correction through pseudo-range and phase range averaging implementation. The other approach demonstrates a precise axis-dependent characterization of dynamic sample space uncertainty to compute a more accurate Kalman filter gain. Additionally, this navigation filter demonstrates a flexibility to accommodate both perturbational dynamic and observational biases required for multi-flight phase and inhomogeneous application environments. This paper reviews the potential application of these methods and the filter structure to terrestrial vehicle and positioning applications. Both the single-frequency ionospheric correction method and the axis-dependent state noise modeling approach offer valuable contributions in cost and accuracy improvements for terrestrial GPS receivers. With a modular design approach to either 'plug-in' or 'unplug' various force models, this multi-flight phase navigation filter design structure also provides a versatile GPS navigation software engine for both atmospheric and exo-atmospheric navigation or positioning use, thereby streamlining the flight phase or application-dependent software requirements. Thus, a standardized GPS navigation software engine that can reduce the development and maintenance cost of commercial GPS receivers is now possible.

Park, Young W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Physical model-set identification for robust control of flexible structures

An approach to dynamic system identification is presented taking into account the goal of enhancing robust control performance of flexible structures. Identification techniques are derived which take advantage of the physics of structural dynamics and can provide realistic bounds for all potential parameter uncertainties. The developed approach includes input optimization which distributes excitation energy in such a way that the influence of residual uncertainties on robust control performance is reduced.

Karlov, Valeri I.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Development of a Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method for the Analysis of Nondeterministic Structures

Accounting for the statistical geometric and material variability of structures in analysis has been a topic of considerable research for the last 30 years. The determination of quantifiable measures of statistical probability of a desired response variable, such as natural frequency, maximum displacement, or stress, to replace experience-based "safety factors" has been a primary goal of these studies. There are, however, several problems associated with their satisfactory application to realistic structures, such as bladed disks in turbomachinery. These include the accurate definition of the input random variables (rv's), the large size of the finite element models frequently used to simulate these structures, which makes even a single deterministic analysis expensive, and accurate generation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) necessary to obtain the probability of the desired response variables. The research presented here applies a methodology called probabilistic dynamic synthesis (PDS) to solve these problems. The PDS method uses dynamic characteristics of substructures measured from modal test as the input rv's, rather than "primitive" rv's such as material or geometric uncertainties. These dynamic characteristics, which are the free-free eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and residual flexibility (RF), are readily measured and for many substructures, a reasonable sample set of these measurements can be obtained. The statistics for these rv's accurately account for the entire random character of the substructure. Using the RF method of component mode synthesis, these dynamic characteristics are used to generate reduced-size sample models of the substructures, which are then coupled to form system models. These sample models are used to obtain the CDF of the response variable by either applying Monte Carlo simulation or by generating data points for use in the response surface reliability method, which can perform the probabilistic analysis with an order of magnitude less computational effort. Both free- and forced-response analyses have been performed, and the results indicate that, while there is considerable room for improvement, the method produces usable and more representative solutions for the design of realistic structures with a substantial savings in computer time.

Brown, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Photoionization of disk galaxies: An explanation of the sharp edges in the H I distribution

We have reproduced the observed radial truncation of the H I distribution in isolated spiral galaxies with a model in which extragalactic radiation photoionizes the gaseous disk. For a galactic mass distribution model that reproduces the observed rotation curves, including dark matter in the disk and halo, the vertical structure of the gas is determined self-consistently. The ionization structure and column densities of H and He ions are computed by solving the radiation transfer equation for both continuum and lines. Our model is similar to that of Maloney, and the H I structure differs by less than 10%. The radial structure of the column density of H I is found to be more sensitive to the extragalactic radiation field than to the distribution of mass. For this reason, considerable progress can be made in determining the extragalactic flux of ionizing photons, phi(sub ex), with more 21 cm observations of isolated galaxies. However, owing to the uncertainty of the radial distribution of total hydrogen at large radii, inferring the extragalactic flux by comparing the observed edges to photoionization models is somewhat subjective. We find 1 x 10(exp 4)/sq cm/s is less than or approximately phi(sub ex) is less than or approximately 5 x 10(exp 4)/sq cm/s, corresponding to 2.1 is less than or approximately iota(sub 0) is less than or approximately 10.5 x 10(exp -23) ergs/sq cm/s/Hz/sr for a 1/nu spectrum. Although somewhat higher, our inferred range of iota(sub 0) is consistent with the large range of values obtained by Kulkarni & Fall from the 'proximity effect' toward Quasi-Stellar Objects (QSOs) at approximately 0.5.

Dove, James B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-Party Flight Trajectory Negotiation for Upper Class E Traffic Management

A new operational concept has been proposed in Upper Class E airspace at or above 60,000 feet (Flight Level / FL600), which will allow operators of diverse vehicle characteristics to cooperatively manage and share their operational intents with neighboring operators to avoid conflict. There is a consensus in the community that negotiation for strategic deconfliction is needed, but there are no specific guidelines for how the negotiation should be conducted. There is a need for a structured and cooperative way to resolve the conflict between a wide variety of aircraft projected to be operating in Upper Class E for the negotiation to be carried out routinely. The use of negotiation models are a promising solution that can resolve conflict risks during flight in real-time while taking into account the uncertainty of future vehicle positions and dynamic business considerations. A two-party negotiation model has been researched, but as the traffic demand grows, there is a higher likelihood of conflict involving multiple aircraft that would require a method to handle multi-party conflict. This paper proposes a cooperative multi-party negotiation model inspired by game theory concepts for application to flight trajectory negotiation in Upper Class E traffic management. This model can be applied in flight with operators communicating directly after a potential conflict is detected. Some of the model’s benefits include allowing business costs to be private to operators, allowing operators to collaborate together to find conflict-free flight trajectories, and being compatible with different aircraft and operation types. This model provides a structured procedure for conflict resolution that can handle conflict involving multiple parties, assuming each operator is willing to take on a small cost to themselves in order to reduce the total cost to the group.

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

NASA NTRS2011

Base Flow Investigation of the Apollo AS-202 Command Module

In recent years, both Europe and the US are developing hypersonic research and operational vehicles. These include (re)entry capsules (both ballistic and lifting) and lifting bodies such as ExoMars, EXPERT, ARV, CEV and IXV. The research programs are meant to enable technology and engineering capabilities to support during the next decade the development of affordable (possibly reusable) space transportation systems as well as hypersonic weapons systems for time critical targets. These programs have a broad range of goals, ranging from the qualification of thermal protection systems, the assessment of RCS performances, the development of GNC algorithms, to the full demonstration of the performance and operability of the integrated vehicles. Since the aerothermodynamic characteristics influence nearly all elements of the vehicle design, the accurate prediction of the aerothermal environment is a prerequisite for the design of efficient hypersonic systems. Significant uncertainties in the prediction of the hypersonic aerodynamic and the aerothermal loads can lead to conservative margins in the design of the vehicle including its Outer Mould Line (OML), thermal protection system, structure, and required control system robustness. The current level of aerothermal prediction uncertainties results therefore in reduced vehicle performances (e.g., sub-optimal payload to mass ratio, increased operational constraints). On the other hand, present computational capabilities enable the simulation of three dimensional flow fields with complex thermo-chemical models over complete trajectories and ease the validation of these tools by, e.g., reconstruction of detailed wind tunnel tests performed under identified and controlled conditions (flow properties and vehicle attitude in particular). These controlled conditions are typically difficult to achieve when performing in flight measurements which in turn results in large associated measurement uncertainties. Similar problems arise when attempting to rebuild measurements performed in "hot" ground facilities, where the difficulty level is increased by the addition of the free-flow characterization itself. The implementation of ever more sophisticated thermochemical models is no obvious cure to the aforementioned problems since their effect is often overwhelmed by the large measurement uncertainties incurred in both flight and ground high enthalpy facilities. Concurrent to the previous considerations, a major contributor to the overall vehicle mass of re-entry vehicles is the afterbody thermal protection system. This is due to the large acreage (equal or bigger than that of the forebody) to be protected. The present predictive capabilities for base flows are comparatively lower than those for windward flowfields and offer therefore a substantial potential for improving the design of future re-entry vehicles. To that end, it is essential to address the accuracy of high fidelity CFD tools exercised in the US and EU, which motivates a thorough investigation of the present status of hypersonic flight afterbody heating. This paper addresses the predictive capabilities of after body flow fields of re-entry vehicles investigated in the frame of the NATO/RTO - RTG-043 Task Group and is structured as follows: First, the verification of base flow topologies on the basis of available wind-tunnel results performed under controlled supersonic conditions (i.e., cold flows devoid of reactive effects) is performed. Such tests address the detailed characterization of the base flow with particular emphasis on separation/reattachment and their relation to Mach number effects. The tests have been performed on an Apollo-like re-entry capsule configuration. Second, the tools validated in the frame of the previous effort are exercised and appraised against flight-test data collected during the Apollo AS-202 re-entry.

Walpot, Louis M. G.↗

NASA NTRS1974

A line-blanketed model stellar atmosphere of Sirius

The method of artificial absorption edges is applied to a grid of model atmospheres to include the effects of hydrogen and metal line blanketing on the atmospheric structure. A best-fit model of Sirius is obtained which is free of the discrepancies inherent in unblanketed or partially blanketed models. All major spectral features calculated from the model agree with the corresponding observed features to within the observational uncertainty. Some additional properties of the models are discussed.

Fowler, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Molybdenum-silicon multilayer mirrors for the extreme ultraviolet

Multilayer structures of molybdenum and silicon have been synthesized by sputter deposition onto flat silicon single-crystal silicon substrates and spherically ground (0.5and 22.0-m radii) fused silica substrates; and the reflectivities for 170.4-A (72.8-eV), 160.1-A (77.4-eV), and 228-A (54.4-eV) light measured at near normal incidence. Observed peak values ranged from 26.2 to 78 percent, the highest reflectivities occurring closest to normal incidence. Energy resolutions were about 10 in all cases. Model calculations were performed using optical constants and experimentally determined multilayer structural parameters. In all cases the measured reflectivities were equal to or larger (by up to a factor of 2) than the calculated values, a result attributed to uncertainty in the optical constants used in the calculations. Experimental and calculated angular-peak positions and energy resolutions were in good agreement. The high reflectivities of these molybdenum-silicon structures will make possible application of traditional optics approaches in the EUV and support new developments including free-electron lasers.

Barbee, T. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A Boltzmann machine for the organization of intelligent machines

A three-tier structure consisting of organization, coordination, and execution levels forms the architecture of an intelligent machine using the principle of increasing precision with decreasing intelligence from a hierarchically intelligent control. This system has been formulated as a probabilistic model, where uncertainty and imprecision can be expressed in terms of entropies. The optimal strategy for decision planning and task execution can be found by minimizing the total entropy in the system. The focus is on the design of the organization level as a Boltzmann machine. Since this level is responsible for planning the actions of the machine, the Boltzmann machine is reformulated to use entropy as the cost function to be minimized. Simulated annealing, expanding subinterval random search, and the genetic algorithm are presented as search techniques to efficiently find the desired action sequence and illustrated with numerical examples.

Moed, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

On the apparent insignificance of the randomness of flexible joints on large space truss dynamics

Deployable periodic large space structures have been shown to exhibit high dynamic sensitivity to period-breaking imperfections and uncertainties. These can be brought on by manufacturing or assembly errors, structural imperfections, as well as nonlinear and/or nonconservative joint behavior. In addition, the necessity of precise pointing and position capability can require the consideration of these usually negligible and unknown parametric uncertainties and their effect on the overall dynamic response of large space structures. This work describes the use of a new design approach for the global dynamic solution of beam-like periodic space structures possessing parametric uncertainties. Specifically, the effect of random flexible joints on the free vibrations of simply-supported periodic large space trusses is considered. The formulation is a hybrid approach in terms of an extended Timoshenko beam continuum model, Monte Carlo simulation scheme, and first-order perturbation methods. The mean and mean-square response statistics for a variety of free random vibration problems are derived for various input random joint stiffness probability distributions. The results of this effort show that, although joint flexibility has a substantial effect on the modal dynamic response of periodic large space trusses, the effect of any reasonable uncertainty or randomness associated with these joint flexibilities is insignificant.

Koch, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Robust Load-Sharing Control of Spacecraft Formations

This paper focuses on the design of autonomous and collaborative control strategies to govern the relative distances among multiple spacecraft in formation with no ground intervention. A coordinate load-sharing control structure for formation flying and a methodology to control their dynamic models with slow time-varying and uncertain parameters are the main objectives of this work. The method is applied to a deep space formation example, where the uncertainty in spacecraft fuel masses is also considered.

multi spacecraft↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗

NASA NTRS1993

Lunar-base construction equipment and methods evaluation

A process for evaluating lunar-base construction equipment and methods concepts is presented. The process is driven by the need for more quantitative, systematic, and logical methods for assessing further research and development requirements in an area where uncertainties are high, dependence upon terrestrial heuristics is questionable, and quantitative methods are seldom applied. Decision theory concepts are used in determining the value of accurate information and the process is structured as a construction-equipment-and-methods selection methodology. Total construction-related, earth-launch mass is the measure of merit chosen for mathematical modeling purposes. The work is based upon the scope of the lunar base as described in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Office of Exploration's 'Exploration Studies Technical Report, FY 1989 Status'. Nine sets of conceptually designed construction equipment are selected as alternative concepts. It is concluded that the evaluation process is well suited for assisting in the establishment of research agendas in an approach that is first broad, with a low level of detail, followed by more-detailed investigations into areas that are identified as critical due to high degrees of uncertainty and sensitivity.

Boles, Walter W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system structural components

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Cruse, T. A.↗