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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22

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NASA NTRS1989

Biases and nonsystematic errors in NMC MRF predictions of momentum and zonal winds

The period of study considered by Rosen et al. (1987) for M forecasts is extended and the source of errors in these forecasts is examined. Time series of daily values of MRF forecasted minus the observed M are presented for forecast lead times of 2, 5, and 10 days from December 1985 through November 1988. A graph is presented of the covariance between errors in the angular momentum per unit mass forecasted at a 10-day lag, and those in the forecasted global angular momentum for the same period.

Rosen, Richard D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Diesel/Biofuel Blends Using Artificial Neural Networks and Linear/Nonlinear Equations

Abstract The use of biomass-derived additives in diesel fuel mixtures has the potential to increase the fuel’s efficiency, decrease the formation of particulate matter during its combustion, and retain the fuel’s behavior in cold weather. To this end, identifying compounds that enable these behaviors is paramount. The present work utilizes a series of linear and non-linear equations in series with artificial neural networks to predict the cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, cloud point, and lower heating value of multi-component blends. Property values of pure components are predicted using artificial neural networks trained with existing experimental data, and these predictions and their expected errors are propagated through linear and non-linear equations to obtain property predictions for multi-component blends. Individual component property prediction errors, defined by blind prediction median absolute error, are 4.91 units, 7.84 units, 0.06 cSt, 4.00 °C, and 0.55 MJ/kg for cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, cloud point, and lower heating value respectively. On average, property predictions for blends are shown to be accurate to within 6% of the blends’ experimental values. Further, a multitude of compounds expected to be produced from catalytically upgrading products of fast pyrolysis are evaluated with respect to their behavior in diesel fuel blends.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Ground-Truth Prediction to Accelerate Soft-Error Impact Analysis for Iterative Methods

Understanding the impact of soft errors on applications can be expensive. Often, it requires an extensive error injection campaign involving numerous runs of the full application in the presence of errors. In this paper, we present a novel approach to arriving at the ground truth--the true impact of an error on the final output--for iterative methods by observing a small number of iterations to learn deviations between normal and error-impacted execution. We develop a machine learning based predictor for three iterative methods to generate ground-truth results without running them to completion for every error injected. We demonstrate that this approach achieves greater accuracy than alternative prediction strategies, including three existing soft error detection strategies. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the ground truth prediction model in evaluating vulnerability and the effectiveness of soft error detection strategies in the context of iterative methods.

iterative methods, failure prediction, Soft error ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Formative vs. Summative Dependence in Human Reliability Analysis

Dependence in human reliability analysis (HRA) is the concept that once an initial human error has occurred, subsequent human errors are more likely. The approach almost universally adopted in HRA was first introduced in the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). In THERP, calculated human error probabilities (HEPs) are adjusted for dependence in the final step of quantification. This final adjustment for dependence involves anchoring the HEP to a set of values corresponding to low through complete dependence. The effect is to increase the HEP. In this paper, we propose formative dependence, which occurs at the onset of quantification. We demonstrate that dependence should be considered earlier in the calculation process, because it is not actually necessary to calculate the HEP when it is subsequently overridden by the dependence anchors. By applying dependence first in the calculation, processing steps can be eliminated, making for more efficient analysis.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Orbit determination of the Comet Rendezvous/Asteroid Flyby mission - Post-rendezvous phases

Orbit determination during the post-rendezvous phases of the Comet Rendezvous/Asteroid Flyby mission is described. The orbit determination process is discussed, with emphasis placed on optical imaging of landmarks and Doppler tracking. Rotational dynamics are introduced for the cometary nucleus. State estimation errors are given for spacecraft trajectory prediction and cometary nucleus attitude prediction. Estimation errors are also given for parameters that describe the cometary nucleus such as moments of inertia and gravity harmonics. The orbit determination performance in support of science observations while in orbit about the nucleus is described.

Miller, James K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Quality within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error.This presentation will provide a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

human error↗

NASA NTRS2017

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps/incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

human error↗

NASA NTRS2017

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

mishaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Early Information Parameter-Set Analysis for Satellite Close Approaches using Machine Learning

Understanding orbital mechanics is essential in space flight and navigation applications, and leveraging modern force models for flight path projection remains an important aspect in space mission design and operation. However, force models do not capture all the dynamics or perturbations in the space environment and thus are subject to errors in predicting the state vectors. The further out the predicted miss distance between spacecraft is from the time of closest approach (TCA), the larger the propagated errors in the predicted miss distance at TCA is. The dependency on these force models for spacecraft flight state prediction calls for a more reliable method that can quantify, or even reduce, these propagated errors. With recent advances in the field artificial intelligence, specifically in machine and deep learning algorithms, a model that implements these approaches can improve on the modern force model approach. The goal for this work is to provide an early-information decision-making threshold, in order to prioritize risk assessment implementation, given the ongoing increase of space objects. In analyzing the relationship of several parameters from conjunction data messages(CDMs) and solar information, early information becomes viable in miss distance prediction with unsupervised learning techniques, which learn the parameters that are linked together with miss distance and probability of collision (Pc) variables. Another approach implemented for identifying relationships within CDMs is supervised learning, in which a shallow neural network binary classifier learns to distinguish events with Pc values¡108. These parameters detected in the unsupervised process are then applied to a regression neural network, which predicts the miss distance at TCA for a specific event within a given uncertainty bound. For the regression neural network, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is implemented, which yields memory about each time step in an event. Using an LSTM network, the model learns to predict miss distance within 0.2km of the value measured at TCA. Although there is a limited amount of "close miss" data to train a network, the network learns to associate parameters, like large energy dissipation rates with the secondary object, with an elevated Pc

Brianna I. Robertson↗

NASA NTRS1997

Automation for Air Traffic Control: The Rise of a New Discipline

The current debate over the concept of Free Flight has renewed interest in automated conflict detection and resolution in the enroute airspace. An essential requirement for effective conflict detection is accurate prediction of trajectories. Trajectory prediction is, however, an inexact process which accumulates errors that grow in proportion to the length of the prediction time interval. Using a model of prediction errors for the trajectory predictor incorporated in the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS), a computationally fast algorithm for computing conflict probability has been derived. Furthermore, a method of conflict resolution has been formulated that minimizes the average cost of resolution, when cost is defined as the increment in airline operating costs incurred in flying the resolution maneuver. The method optimizes the trade off between early resolution at lower maneuver costs but higher prediction error on the one hand and late resolution with higher maneuver costs but lower prediction errors on the other. The method determines both the time to initiate the resolution maneuver as well as the characteristics of the resolution trajectory so as to minimize the cost of the resolution. Several computational examples relevant to the design of a conflict probe that can support user-preferred trajectories in the enroute airspace will be presented.

Erzberger, Heinz↗

NASA NTRS1984

The influence of actual and apparent geoid error on ocean analysis and prediction

The radar altimeter is the only satellite remote sensor with a proven capability for synoptically measuring an integral property of the dynamic ocean on a near global, all weather basis. Because acquisition of global, in situ ocean data with space/time resolution adequate to describe dynamically important ocean features is practically impossible, any attempt to develop a global ocean monitoring and forecasting system will rely heavily on altimetric data for initialization and updating. Maximizing useful information from the altimeter while minimizing error sources and developing methods for assimilating altimeter data into dynamical models are, therefore, vital areas for research and development. The limits imposed on ocean prediction by errors in the geoid or apparent errors associated with ground track variations near strong geopotential gradients are examined.

Thompson, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Quantizing and sampling considerations in digital phased-locked loops

The quantizer problem is first considered. The conditions under which the uniform white sequence model for the quantizer error is valid are established independent of the sampling rate. An equivalent spectral density is defined for the quantizer error resulting in an effective SNR value. This effective SNR may be used to determine quantized performance from infinitely fine quantized results. Attention is given to sampling rate considerations. Sampling rate characteristics of the digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) structure are investigated for the infinitely fine quantized system. The predicted phase error variance equation is examined as a function of the sampling rate. Simulation results are presented and a method is described which enables the minimum required sampling rate to be determined from the predicted phase error variance equations.

Hurst, G. T.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Three-Stage Adjusted Regression Forecasting for Software Defect Prediction

In this paper, a three-stage adjusted regression forecasting model is proposed to forecast the local regression model [6]. This is a growth curve approximation model that predicts the parameters for a future linear model based on a sliding window of previous linear models. The three stages of the model are as follows: • Initial fit: train regression models on a sliding window of the date and record model coefficients. • Prediction: fit new regression models to the coefficient lists and predict the value of the next coefficient. • Error correction: correct coefficient prediction error using the residual of the last point of the coefficient list and moving average. The resulting model from the multi-stage process is a forecast of the local regression model that represents the future window of data and is referred to as the predicted line. Results suggest the three-stage model demonstrates better prediction capability compared to existing solutions.

Pritchard, Shadow↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-time monitoring of trace noble gases using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy—An investigation of the impact of bulk gas on plasma properties and sensitivity

The impact of Ar and He bulk gases on laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) real-time monitoring of trace Xe and Kr was assessed. LIBS is being developed as a monitoring tool for measuring noble gas transport in molten salt systems, in which traditional sensors may face challenges associated with radiation, corrosive materials, and/or mixed phases. The plasma temperature and electron densities of LIBS plasmas were measured in both static and various flowing Ar and He streams (0–5 L min −1 ). The use of an Ar bulk gas resulted in higher plasma temperature, greater electron densities by an order of magnitude, and extended plasma lifetime compared with when He bulk gas was used. Gas flow rate was found to have little impact on plasma temperature; however, its effect on electron density was significant, indicating the need to consider flow rate–specific models. Matrix effects on emission peaks were reported for both bulk gases. Due to these matrix effects, multivariate models were developed for Xe and Kr ranging from 0 to 700 ppm in both bulk gases. Although the predictive behavior was similar (root mean square error of prediction ranging from 11.1 to 20.6 ppm), the limits of detection were superior in He (Xe: 22.9 ppm, Kr: 30.4 ppm). Furthermore, these models were employed in demonstrative real-time tests (>1 h), which showed strong predictive precision (relative standard deviation <5 %) regardless of the bulk gas. Ultimately, this study provides a guide for the considerations required when developing gaseous LIBS models for real-time monitoring.

Gas flow effects↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anisotropic yield models for lattice unit cell structures exploiting orthotropic symmetry

We report numerical homogenization enables efficient computational analysis and design of multiscale structures made of micro-architected materials including lattice unit cells. However, predicting yield is nontrivial because it requires accurate and efficient predictions of the maximum stress inside the homogenized unit cells. To address this challenge, we develop a macroscale anisotropic yield function for micro-architected materials. The yield function depends on the three-dimensional macroscale stress state and the parameters describing a family of micro-architectures, such as the radii of the struts in a lattice unit cell. To ensure accuracy, we determine the maximum stress using three-dimensional continuum finite-element analysis. To ensure efficiency, we construct surrogate models from the aforementioned high-fidelity results for yield prediction. To reduce simulation costs and surrogate modeling complexity, we leverage orthotropic symmetry commonly found in lattice unit cells. In this paper, we provide a thorough presentation of group representations and the systematic procedure to exploit orthotropic domain symmetry in homogenization and surrogate modeling. We illustrate the use of linear homogenization results to predict yield in specific unit cells without further simulations. We furthermore show that surrogate modeling presents a viable option for anisotropic yield prediction in a continuously parametrized family of micro-architectures. More specifically, despite the dimensionality and degree of nonlinearity in the maximum micro von Mises stress within the unit cell, the surrogate models can predict it with less than 5% error at least 90% of the time. Moreover, the largest under-prediction error, which is more critical than the over-prediction error, is typically less than 10%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2003

Noninvasive, near infrared spectroscopic-measured muscle pH and PO2 indicate tissue perfusion for cardiac surgical patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether near infrared spectroscopic measurement of tissue pH and Po2 has sufficient accuracy to assess variation in tissue perfusion resulting from changes in blood pressure and metabolic demand during cardiopulmonary bypass. DESIGN: Prospective clinical study. SETTING: Academic medical center. SUBJECTS: Eighteen elective cardiac surgical patients. INTERVENTION: Cardiac surgery under cardiopulmonary bypass. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A near infrared spectroscopic fiber optic probe was placed over the hypothenar eminence. Reference Po2 and pH sensors were inserted in the abductor digiti minimi (V). Data were collected every 30 secs during surgery and for 6 hrs following cardiopulmonary bypass. Calibration equations developed from one third of the data were used with the remaining data to investigate sensitivity of the near infrared spectroscopic measurement to physiologic changes resulting from cardiopulmonary bypass. Near infrared spectroscopic and reference pH and Po2 measurements were compared for each subject using standard error of prediction. Near infrared spectroscopic pH and Po2 at baseline were compared with values during cardiopulmonary bypass just before rewarming commenced (hypotensive, hypothermic), after rewarming (hypotensive, normothermic) just before discontinuation of cardiopulmonary bypass, and at 6 hrs following cardiopulmonary bypass (normotensive, normothermic) using mixed-model analysis of variance. Near infrared spectroscopic pH and Po2 were well correlated with the invasive measurement of pH (R2 =.84) and Po2 (R 2 =.66) with an average standard error of prediction of 0.022 +/- 0.008 pH units and 6 +/- 3 mm Hg, respectively. The average difference between the invasive and near infrared spectroscopic measurement was near zero for both the pH and Po2 measurements. Near infrared spectroscopic Po2 significantly decreased 50% on initiation of cardiopulmonary bypass and remained depressed throughout the bypass and monitored intensive care period. Near infrared spectroscopic pH decreased significantly during cardiopulmonary bypass, decreased significantly during rewarming, and remained depressed 6 hrs after cardiopulmonary bypass. Diabetic patients responded differently than nondiabetic subjects to cardiopulmonary bypass, with lower muscle pH values (p =.02). CONCLUSIONS: Near infrared spectroscopic-measured muscle pH and Po2 are sensitive to changes in tissue perfusion during cardiopulmonary bypass.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging design of experiments to build chemometric models for the quantification of uranium (VI) and HNO3 by Raman spectroscopy

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) and support vector regression (SVR) models were optimized for the quantification of U(VI) (10–320 g L −1 ) and HNO 3 (0.6–6 M) by Raman spectroscopy with optimized calibration sets chosen by optimal design of experiments. The designed approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the calibration set for PLSR and SVR by selecting sample concentrations with a quadratic process model, despite complex confounding and covarying spectral features in the spectra. The top PLS2 model resulted in percent root mean square errors of prediction for U(VI), HNO 3 , and NO 3 − of 3.7%, 3.6%, and 2.9%, respectively. PLS1 models performed similarly despite modeling an analyte with a majority linear response (i.e., uranyl symmetric stretch) and another with more covarying vibrational modes (i.e., HNO 3 ). Partial least squares (PLS) model loadings and regression coefficients were evaluated to better understand the relationship between weaker Raman bands and covarying spectral features. Support vector machine models outperformed PLS1 models, resulting in percent root mean square error of prediction values for U(VI) and HNO 3 of 1.5% and 3.1%, respectively. The optimal nonlinear SVR model was trained using a similar number of samples (11) compared with the PLSR model, even though PLS is a linear modeling approach. The generic D-optimal design presented in this work provides a robust statistical framework for selecting training set samples in disparate two-factor systems. This approach reinforces Raman spectroscopy for the quantification of species relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle and provides a robust chemometric modeling approach to bolster online monitoring in challenging process environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automated Symbolic Upscaling: 2. Model Generation for Extended Applicability Regimes

Abstract In this second part of the two paper series, we detail an algorithmic procedure for systematically implementing the generalized closure form strategy presented in Part 1. This strategy extends the applicability of homogenized models with respect to classical homogenization theory, as demonstrated in Part 1 where upscaled models are rigorously derived in moderately reactive physical regimes. After encoding the algorithm into Symbolica, an automated upscaling framework, we upscale two reactive mass transport problems and numerically validate the resulting nonlinear homogenized models by showing the absolute error estimates predicted by homogenization theory are satisfied. In both problems, nontrivial closure forms and closure problems are automatically formulated using the encoded strategy with no human interaction, nor prior knowledge regarding the closure required for the systems. We hope these demonstrations spark further interest in automated analytical frameworks for multiscale modeling, as such capabilities are invaluable for generating rigorous multiscale models of complex phenomena in porous media.

Pietrzyk, Kyle↗