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392 records · Page 22

Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

A 12-year (1987-1998) Ensemble Simulation of the US Climate with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

V and V of ISHM Software for Space Exploration

NASA has established a far-reaching and long-term program for robotic and manned exploration of the solar system, beginning with missions to the moon and Mars. The Crew Transportation System (CTS), a key system for space exploration, imposes four requirements' that ISHM addresses. These requirements have a wide range of implications for V&V and certification of ISHM. There is a range of time-criticality for ISHM actions, from prognostication, which is often (but not always) non-time-critical, to time-critical state estimation and system management under off-nominal emergency conditions. These are externally imposed requirements on ISHM that are subject to V&V. - In addition, a range of techniques are needed to implement an ISHM. The approaches to ISHM are described elsewhere. These approaches range from well-understood algorithms for low-level data analysis, validation and reporting, to AI techniques for state estimation and planning. The range of techniques, and specifically the use of AI techniques such as reasoning under uncertainty and mission planning (and re-planning), implies that several V&V approaches may be required. Depending on the ISHM architecture, traditional testing approaches may be adequate for some ISHM functionality. The AI-based approaches to reasoning under uncertainty, model-based reasoning, and planning share characteristics typical of other complex software systems, but they also have characteristics that set them apart and challenge standard V&V techniques. The range of possible solutions to the overall ISHM problem impose internal challenges to V&V. The V&V challenges increase when hard real-time constraints are imposed for time-critical functionality. For example, there is an external requirement that impending catastrophic failure of the Launch Vehicle (LV) at launch time be detected and life-saving action be taken within two seconds. In this paper we outline the challenges for ISHM V&V, existing approaches and analogs in other software application areas, and possible new approaches to the V&V challenges for space exploration ISHM.

Markosian, Lawrence↗

NDE and SHM Simulation for CFRP Composites

Ultrasound-based nondestructive evaluation (NDE) is a common technique for damage detection in composite materials. There is a need for advanced NDE that goes beyond damage detection to damage quantification and characterization in order to enable data driven prognostics. The damage types that exist in carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites include microcracking and delaminations, and can be initiated and grown via impact forces (due to ground vehicles, tool drops, bird strikes, etc), fatigue, and extreme environmental changes. X-ray microfocus computed tomography data, among other methods, have shown that these damage types often result in voids/discontinuities of a complex volumetric shape. The specific damage geometry and location within ply layers affect damage growth. Realistic threedimensional NDE and structural health monitoring (SHM) simulations can aid in the development and optimization of damage quantification and characterization techniques. This paper is an overview of ongoing work towards realistic NDE and SHM simulation tools for composites, and also discusses NASA's need for such simulation tools in aeronautics and spaceflight. The paper describes the development and implementation of a custom ultrasound simulation tool that is used to model ultrasonic wave interaction with realistic 3-dimensional damage in CFRP composites. The custom code uses elastodynamic finite integration technique and is parallelized to run efficiently on computing cluster or multicore machines.

Leckey, Cara A. C.↗

Statistical physics and physiology: monofractal and multifractal approaches

Even under healthy, basal conditions, physiologic systems show erratic fluctuations resembling those found in dynamical systems driven away from a single equilibrium state. Do such "nonequilibrium" fluctuations simply reflect the fact that physiologic systems are being constantly perturbed by external and intrinsic noise? Or, do these fluctuations actually, contain useful, "hidden" information about the underlying nonequilibrium control mechanisms? We report some recent attempts to understand the dynamics of complex physiologic fluctuations by adapting and extending concepts and methods developed very recently in statistical physics. Specifically, we focus on interbeat interval variability as an important quantity to help elucidate possibly non-homeostatic physiologic variability because (i) the heart rate is under direct neuroautonomic control, (ii) interbeat interval variability is readily measured by noninvasive means, and (iii) analysis of these heart rate dynamics may provide important practical diagnostic and prognostic information not obtainable with current approaches. The analytic tools we discuss may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals. We first review recent progress using two analysis methods--detrended fluctuation analysis and wavelets--sufficient for quantifying monofractual structures. We then describe recent work that quantifies multifractal features of interbeat interval series, and the discovery that the multifractal structure of healthy subjects is different than that of diseased subjects.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Satellite Monitoring of Global Surface Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics Using the SMAP Level 4 Carbon Product

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important metric of soil health and the terrestrial carbon balance. Short‐term climate variations affect SOC through changes in temperature and moisture, which control vegetation growth and soil decomposition. We evaluated a satellite data‐driven carbon model, operating under the NASA Soil Moisture Active‐Passive (SMAP) mission, as a means of monitoring global surface SOC dynamics. The SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4C) product estimates a daily global carbon budget including surface (0‐ to 5‐cm depth) SOC. We found that the L4C mean latitudinal SOC distribution is generally consistent with alternative assessments from static soil inventory records and dynamic global vegetation models (r ≥ 0.89). Within forest systems, based on inventory data, L4C SOC is most similar in magnitude to litterfall but is correlated with coarse woody debris ( urn:x-wiley:jgrg:media:jgrg21790:jgrg21790-math-0001) and total SOC ( urn:x-wiley:jgrg:media:jgrg21790:jgrg21790-math-0002). L4C SOC is sensitive to seasonal and annual climate variability, with mean residence times that range from 1.5 years in the wet tropics to 17 years in the cold tundra. Incorporating soil moisture retrievals from the SMAP L‐band (1.4 GHz) microwave radiometer within the L4C algorithm provides enhanced soil moisture sensitivity under low‐to‐moderate vegetation cover (<5 kg/sq.m vegetation water content). The L‐band soil moisture had the greatest impact on the L4C carbon budget in semiarid regions, which span almost 60% of the globe and account for substantial variability in the terrestrial carbon sink. The L4C operational product enables prognostic investigations into effects of recent climate trends and anomalies (e.g., droughts and pluvials) on shallow soil carbon dynamics.

K. Arthur Endsley↗

Lithium-ion Battery Strain Gauge Monitoring and Depth of Discharge Estimation

Lithium-ion battery diagnostics and prognostics rely on measurements of electrical impedance, capacity, and voltage to infer the internal state of the battery. Mechanical changes to the cell structure represent an additional measure of the battery’s state because these changes are related to the overall battery health. As lithium-ion batteries are charged and discharged, lithium ions are inserted or removed from the anode and cathode, a process called intercalation and de-intercalation. As lithium ions intercalate and de-intercalate, they can cause changes to the lattice of the electrode particles, resulting in volumetric changes. These volumetric changes cause mechanical stresses and strains on the lithium-ion battery electrodes, and subsequently, the whole cell’s thickness varies as it is charged and discharged. This paper presents a study on the use of surface-mounted strain gauges for in-situ measurement of structural changes to lithium-ion batteries, along with a characterization of the unit-to-unit differences in strain response. A neural network modeling structure is then used to predict the battery’s depth of discharge under dynamic discharge conditions.

Lithium-ion batteries, depth of discharge, strain ↗

Proteomics identifies complement protein signatures in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis

Diagnostic challenges continue to impede development of effective therapies for successful management of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), creating an unmet need to identify noninvasive biomarkers for AH. In murine models, complement contributes to ethanol-induced liver injury. Therefore, we hypothesized that complement proteins could be rational diagnostic/prognostic biomarkers in AH. Here, we performed a comparative analysis of data derived from human hepatic and serum proteome to identify and characterize complement protein signatures in severe AH (sAH). The quantity of multiple complement proteins was perturbed in liver and serum proteome of patients with sAH. Multiple complement proteins differentiated patients with sAH from those with alcohol cirrhosis (AC) or alcohol use disorder (AUD) and healthy controls (HCs). Serum collectin 11 and C1q binding protein were strongly associated with sAH and exhibited good discriminatory performance among patients with sAH, AC, or AUD and HCs. Furthermore, complement component receptor 1-like protein was negatively associated with pro-inflammatory cytokines. Additionally, lower serum MBL associated serine protease 1 and coagulation factor II independently predicted 90-day mortality. In summary, meta-analysis of proteomic profiles from liver and circulation revealed complement protein signatures of sAH, highlighting a complex perturbation of complement and identifying potential diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for patients with sAH.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Remaining Flying Time Prediction Implementing Battery Prognostics Framework for Electric UAV's

In this paper the problem of building trust in the online safety prediction of an fixed wing small electric unmanned aerial vehicles (e-UAV) for remaining flying time is addressed. A series of flight tests are described to verify the performance of the remaining flying time prediction algorithm. The estimate of remaining flying time is used to activate an alarm when the predicted remaining time falls below a threshold of two minutes. This updates the pilot to transition to the landing sequence of the flight profile. A second alarm is activated when the battery state of charge (SOC) falls below a specified safety limit threshold. This SOC threshold is the point at which the battery energy reserve would no longer safely support enough aborted landing attempts. During the test flights, the motor system is operated with the same predefined timed airspeed profile for each test. To test the robustness of the developed prediction algorithm, partial tests were performed with and remaining were performed without a simulated power train fault. To simulate a partial power train fault in the e-UAV the pilot engages a resistor bank at a specified time during the test flight. The flying time prediction system is agnostic of the pilot's activation of the fault and must adapt to the vehicle's state. The time at which the limit threshold on battery SOC is reached, it is then used to measure the accuracy of the remaining flying time predictions. This is demonstrated through comparing results from two battery models being developed. Accuracy requirements for the alarms are considered and the results discussed.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗

Circulating miRNA Signature Predicts Health Risks Associated with Cancer and Spaceflight

Biological risks associated with space radiation and microgravity are major concerns for long-term space travel. Through a Systems Biology approach, our previous NASA work has shown both TGF signaling pathways and miRNAs have a critical impact on defining health risks with and without space irradiation. We hypothesize that circulating microRNA (miRNA) signatures are driving microvascular disease and muscle degeneration associated with accelerating aging and will be enhanced by exposure to the space environment (radiation and microgravity). We are investigating this hypothesis with both in vivo and in vitro models to test novel antagonist therapies to these miRNA signatures as countermeasures to reduce space radiation-induced health risks. A comprehensive Systems Biology approach is utilized to examine the influence by high atomic number by high (H) atomic number (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) irradiation. To simulate low-dose exposure due to galactic cosmic rays (GCR), we used ions, energy, and doses determined by a NASA consensus formula of 7 different ions to represent GCR (referred to as GCR sim model). To similate high-dose radiation exposure due to solar particle events (SPE), we used a solar particle event (SPE) sim model which gave a total dose of 1Gy protons with energy ranges from 50MeV to 150MeV. C57BL/6 wild-type female mice were utilized for the irradiations with our established simulated microgravity model (hindlimb suspension model) and an in vitro 3D microvasculature tissue model under simulated microgravity (clinostat) conditions was also irradiated. To expand on the circulating miRNA signature determined from our preliminary data, we determined a group of conserved miRNAs which are commonly being regulated in the majority of the organs and tissues throughout the host using our established techniques. MiRNA-sequencing was done on serum (at time of sacrifice), liver, heart, and muscle (soleus muscle) tissue for all radiation groups. Additional validation of the key miRNAs was performed by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). This revealed a key circulating miRNA signature (consisting of multiple miRNAs) impacting cardiovascular and muscular disease risk. Further in vitro experiments with CRISPR/Cas9 system to knockout the key miRNA signatures, novel self-delivering antagomirs, overexpression of the miRNAs test the functional impact of the miRNA signatures on both microvascular disease and muscle degeneration due to space irradiation. The current work has started to allow the possible development of a novel minimally invasive miRNA based radioprotector to be used as a countermeasure for space radiation. Collectively, understanding of how whole body space radiation impacts microvascular and tissue degeneration through circulating miRNAs will greatly enhance health risk prognostication and provide possible new mechanisms for protection against space radiation. This work is supported by the Translational Research Institute through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AO69A (T-0404) awarded to AB.

Beheshti, Afshin↗

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗

Cloud Properties Simulated by a Single-Column Model. Part II: Evaluation of Cumulus Detrainment and Ice-phase Microphysics Using a Cloud Resolving Model

This paper is the second in a series in which kilometer-scale-resolving observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and a cloud-resolving model (CRM) are used to evaluate the single-column model (SCM) version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System model. Part I demonstrated that kilometer-scale cirrus properties simulated by the SCM significantly differ from the cloud radar observations while the CRM simulation reproduced most of the cirrus properties as revealed by the observations. The present study describes an evaluation, through a comparison with the CRM, of the SCM's representation of detrainment from deep cumulus and ice-phase microphysics in an effort to better understand the findings of Part I. It is found that detrainment occurs too infrequently at a single level at a time in the SCM, although the detrainment rate averaged over the entire simulation period is somewhat comparable to that of the CRM simulation. Relatively too much detrained ice is sublimated when first detrained. Snow falls over too deep of a layer due to the assumption that snow source and sink terms exactly balance within one time step in the SCM. These characteristics in the SCM parameterizations may explain many of the differences in the cirrus properties between the SCM and the observations (or between the SCM and the CRM). A possible improvement for the SCM consists of the inclusion of multiple cumulus cloud types as in the original Arakawa-Schubert scheme, prognostically determining the stratiform cloud fraction and snow mixing ratio. This would allow better representation of the detrainment from deep convection, better coupling of the volume of detrained air with cloud fraction, and better representation of snow field.

Luo, Yali↗

Flight Testing of In-Time Safety Assurance Technologies for UAS Operations

Ongoing research at NASA is driven by a strategic plan defined by the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate and a vision for future In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS) as described by the National Academies. In both visions, system safety awareness and provision are expanded through increased access to relevant data; integrated analysis and predictive capabilities; improved real-time detection and alerting of domain-specific hazards; decision support, and in some cases, automated risk mitigation strategies. One primary research focus is to develop means by which more timely (i.e., “in-time”) actions may be taken to mitigate precursors, anomalies, or trends that are observed during operations. In this paper, we describe such means as a collection of Services, Functions, and Capabilities (SFCs) that are supported by an underlying information system. For example, an integrated risk assessment capability is envisioned that continuously monitors safety-related metrics and margins and recommends timely operational changes. Assessment functions and/or services can be based on data analytics and predictive models derived from heterogeneous data sets that span relevant indicator metrics and their time histories. Likewise, on-board functions can identify and reduce susceptibility to precursor conditions that have led (and can lead) to aircraft loss-of-control or out-of-control accidents. This paper summarizes development and testing of such an information system tailored to hazards anticipated for future highly autonomous flight missions near and over densely populated areas. Testing is accomplished via simulation and by using small, unmanned aircraft operating over a test range at NASA’s Langley Research Center. Flight plans and test scenarios are defined to emulate several use-cases, including package delivery; reconnaissance; fire management; and urban air taxi vertiport operations. Two test phases are summarized with Phase 1 occurring in (2019-2020) and Phase 2 ongoing (2021-present). Results focus on SFC performance, technology readiness level assessment, and requirements discovery/validation. Companion papers are cited throughout for additional details on the recent testing.

safety management↗

Condition monitoring of wind turbine drivetrains: state-of-the-art technologies, recent trends, and future outlook

As global wind capacity expands, reducing operations and maintenance costs is critical to lowering the levelized cost of energy. This paper explores the state of the art in condition monitoring and prognostic strategies for wind turbine drivetrains, which are among the most failure-prone and maintenance-intensive subsystems. Current diagnostic methodologies are evaluated, covering supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, high-frequency vibration and acoustic analysis, machine learning and digital twin frameworks. Finally, practical challenges are identified that limit wide-scale industrial adoption, in order to guide future research and industrial efforts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗